PM Daily Market Commentary - 8/07/2013

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Thu, Aug 8, 2013 - 1:29am

Gold finished the day up $4.90 on light volume to 1286.40, with silver up $0.10 to 19.54, moving the gold/silver ratio down to 65.83.  After NY close, PM continued moving up; in asia, gold is at 1293.60 and silver has moved to 19.73.

An important part of this story is the dollar, which has made a new cycle low of 81.31, closing below its 200 day moving average as well as the former support level of 81.50.  The buck was off -0.47% today, which is a moderately large move as these things go.

Had the volume in gold been higher today, I would interpret the price action as showing a possible reversal, but with the low volume its harder to draw any conclusions.  The miners were also relatively low volume and the price action didn't confirm any possible reversal - an initial early modest rally early in NY trading was sold off prior to the close, leaving mining shares down slightly.

Gold remains in a downtrend in all three timeframes.  Silver does as well, but the downtrend is gentler, volume on up-days is higher, and I'd say it just looks better behaved right now especially in the last few days.  So far silver hasn't broken below 19; mostly it is moving sideways with a slight downward bias.  This has caused the gold/silver ratio to close below its 20 EMA for the first time in a month, which I would interpret as PM positive.

 

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