Welcome to the Peak Prosperity Investment Group

KennethPollinger
By KennethPollinger on Tue, Apr 23, 2013 - 10:47pm

The purpose of this PP Investment Group is to offer mutual support and helpful information to our members who are seeking to build financial wealth across the vast array of investment vehicles (stocks, bonds, precious metals, other tangible assets, retirement funds, options, etc), but doing so in a manner that takes into consideration the incredible macroeconomic challenges facing all of us that The Crash Course identifies. 

As we have many excellent minds in our Community with a wide variety of experiences. The idea here is to foster communication and sharing of ideas/expertise/knowledge among ourselves, especially in terms of INVESTING.

For example, some time back Jim H graciously summarized his list of favorite junior gold miners for our consideration. Since it appeared to me that he was way ahead of my neophyte status, I was led to explore these suggested companies in greater depth. (Fortunately Jim exited his positions on the Friday BEFORE the recent big manipulated crash!). His guidance also turned me onto GoldStockAnalyst.com which could prove to be a very useful resource in identifying solid, well-financed mining companies with sound management teams behind them.  (Thanks again, Jim. The fee was too high for me but caused me to do a lot of thinking. AND I will still follow those you talked about.)

Another example of the type of situations I'm hoping this group can provide helpful guidance with. Today I received a PAID piece of info from David Morgan concerning something new: Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) is investing in KootenaySilver (TSX: KTN.V) at 0.750.  I have a lot of questions I'd like to bounce off other investors, hopefully some with more investing and/or mining expertise than I have:

  • Is this a good buy at present?
  • Is now the best time to enter, or it is wiser to wait for "THE" correction/collapse forthcoming?
  • Does anyone with mining experience have an opinion of the quality of Kootenay's assets and operations?

And so forth.

I've used mining stocks in my examples above, but this group is created for discussion on any asset type or category. We all share the same goal of a more profitable future, so I'm hoping we can all learn from each other; support each other, and (hopefully) enrich each other. If you're like me when it comes to investing, I personally can use all the help I can muster.

Care to join me and others in attempting to support ourselves financially?

If so, join this Group. To do so is easy: just click here and then click the big blue JOIN TODAY button.

And feel free to introduce yourself in the Comments section below and let us know what your investment goals are, and if you have any specific interests or expertise you'd like us to know about.

Best,

Ken P.

7 Comments

WH's picture
WH
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 17 2011
Posts: 16
My brief story ...

Hi Ken,

Thanks for creating this group. I'm a novice investor eager to learn more. If I had to put a timeline on how long I've been investing, it would be January 2011 when I joined a group called The Elevation Group (EVG). Through EVG I learned about Peak Prosperity (ChrisMartenson.com back then) and ultimately a group called Shift Evolution, launched by investor and financial advisor Paul Haarman. I've been exposed to some great investments that run the gamut of simple to complex, many of which are not known or accessible to the general public. And, as usual, some bad investments as well. Still have a lot to learn. Something I've very excited about is learning how to use life insurance as an investment itself (earning between a 2 and 12 percent compounding rate of return), but more importantly as the foundation for all my other investments. The strategy is to capitalize the policy then deploy cash via a tax free loan (on which little to no interest is paid) to various investment be it cash flow investment or capital gains investments. I'm excited to share what I learn.

On a personal note, I just started my life with the woman of my dreams. We're getting married in October. And she has twin 8 year old girls. So we're just getting started with our lives together. And I have a lot to fight for, so I'm pretty passionate about everything we do to prepare ourselves for the future. We've built a lot of resiliance into our lives, developing a small backyard homestead on 1.6 acres. We have a large 2000 sq/ft garden, and orchard and chickens. Just the other day we inoculated three enormous oak logs with hundrends of mushroom dowels, hoping to grown some medicinal and food fungi. smiley 

That's all for now! Thanks again for creating the group.

(I'm surprised there isn't a PP group like this already. Haven't reasearched it, but I assume there isn't. smiley)

WH

 

Brule's picture
Brule
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 3 2010
Posts: 1
Could use help

Dear Group,

My wife and I are in our mid-50s, with two kids in high school (pre-college).  Our situation is good and we have solid savings, but it's hard (and scary) as hell to know where to put money these days.  In recent years, I've just kept money in money market funds, which is not good, but at least is safe.  I'd be interested to know if ideas like Lending Club make sense to get a better yield.  I agree with the overall approach of Peak Prosperity, that we are headed for tough times, and so I think that it would be good to keep cash for a time when things may break.  But it's hard to know the timing.  I'm sorry I don't have more ideas to contribute, but this is where I sit, another Baby Boomer worried about college/retirement and sitting on his savings.

Best,

Dave

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 654
Thanks for Sharing

Welcome Dave and Brule. Sounds like we three have much in common--eager beginners seeking some assistance from our own EEE Community about where to put our money for decent returns and protection of our principal. At the moment, I also sit on some cash and have gold/silver in a secure place.

As for resilency, I have two retreat Awareness Centers: one in the Catskills (Point of Infinity) and one in Costa Rica. Check out: www.AwarenessCenters.com and feel free to browse.

I've been trying to create "community" for many years and it's starting to pay off, offering a place for modest participants. Our goal now is to implement many ideas offered by our Peak Prosperity site for sane living.

Recently many financial gurus are talking up the junior gold miners as they SEEM to be near a bottom but of the 1800 or so, WHICH ones are the best ones to jump into? Jim H suggested a few but HOW does one know without extensive research that takes much time? And even how TO DO that research? How can one minimize the gambling losses?  Purchase the GoldStockAnalyst.com recommended lists? And how about the "big boys," like NEM, etc?  Or CMI, the natural gas trucking company? (a specific needed product in relation to the Energy component)?

Anyway, just wanted to say hello and glad this group might be of assistance to all of us.

Ken P.

Oliveoilguy's picture
Oliveoilguy
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 29 2012
Posts: 578
Interested in Buy and Hold Investing

I'm interested in holding a few positions long term that give dividends and are in sectors that should grow over time.

I've traded some, but don't want to devote the time to be a trader. Am much happier building things and creating wealth that way.  

Hrunner's picture
Hrunner
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 28 2010
Posts: 256
Ken- The courage of our convictions

Ken,

First, thank you for creating this group.  It very much dovetails with concerns raised by our recent series of blog posts by Chris and co.  - specifically concerns about a stock market retracement, bond market failure, comex default possibility, have led to ask the logical and basic question- so what should we (I) do?

A seemingly offhand phrase by Bill Fleckenstein in his excellent "Voices" podcast with Chris really grabbed my attention, the phrase was "investable information". 

While I appreciate and am intellectually curious regarding the background and frame-setting information, discussion about monetary standards, etc, we should always keep in mind the question what good does it do us (what will we say a year from now, or 10 years from now to children) if all we have to show for this is a satisfied curiosity?

Motivation?  It seems we may have multiple, but fundamentally may fall into two.

1)  We are concerned that something really consequential (ok let me say it- something really 'bad') is underway and we want to protect ourselves from damage.

2)  We are greedy and we want to make a lot of money, yes profit from our insights.  There I said it.

With that short preface, let me throw down a financial gauntlet.  Based on things said here and elsewhere, let me list out some assumptions, the things that make sense, and try to even prioritize them.  Feel free to criticize (the point is to put a marker down).

Assumption- a participant has either A) a finite amount of net worth that is denominated in dollars that has great flexibility, B) a finite amount of net worth that is limited in flexibility (IRAs, 401K), C) a finite amount of net worth that is very limited in flexibility (home and property equity), D) a finite amount of dollars coming in each month that are 'left over' after food, shelter, utilities, loan repayments.

Battle Plan

Tier One (in order of priority)

Get out of variable interest debt.  No credit cards.  No variable mortgage debt.  Only low-interest, fixed-rate mortgage.  Car loan only if absolutely necessary.  Fixed rate only.

Food (see SHTFplan.com "25 things to store"- recently published which I thought was a good list, or the LDS template, or James Rawles as guidelines), water, fuel, security, energy (solar, insulation, etc) to allow minimum 6 month disruption of services.  Tools.  Seeds.  Useful clothing, gloves, homestead improvement for food.  See the rest of Resilient Life.

Tier Two

Assuming the above is taken care of to some level of contentment, the remainder left over net worth may be considered as follows.

Gold and silver.  Insurance policy.  Potential large profit if PM value rises relative to cheapen paper assets (new monetary standards, recognition of low value of paper assets by general public).  I can't figure out a better ratio than 50%/50% currently, though the idea of rotating from gold to silver based on G/S ratio bears watching- see "Byzantium" post at tfmetalsreport.com about 2 weeks ago).  AGE, ASEs my 1st choice or at least recognizable forms (Maples, Krugs), junk silver.  YMMV. In direct physical possession or in secure facility that you can have in hand in 12-24 hours.  I personally don't like safe deposit boxes as they are 'in the system' and too accessible to others.  I say 10% of net worth bare minimum.  I have heard ranges from 5% to 75%.  PMs seem to be endorsed by every speaker in our End of the Keynesian Experiment world.  Gold and silver outside of U.S.?  Yes, but how to do this- is there a tax on transfers or holdings?

Cash.  Pro- Cash gives you options, flexibility.  The whole inflation-deflation debate is controversial and confusing to me.  But there seems to be a real chance of big time deflation.  Cash is king in deflation.  I am willing to accept a bit of value destruction via inflation while holding cash.  Inflation is probably higher than 2% but probably not higher than 6%.  And holding.  Especially given the recent downdraft in commodities, mainly oil.  I will watch inflation-deflation like a hawk, and be ready to get out of cash if inflation takes hold, or buy valuable things (corporate stock after a stock market correction, property) if a deflation downdraft occurs.  Cons- value loss during inflation.  Also, where do you keep it?  I am very nervous about A) the stability of banking system i.e. being "Cyprus'd", and B) the funny business in money-market funds.  The best answer I currently have is use a local community bank or credit union.  Before resorting to the ole mattress.  Any thoughts here are helpful.  Cash in other currencies?  Yuan?  Swiss francs?  Bitcoin?  Since I'm not worried about democratic party criticism, any thoughts on outside U.S. holding from experienced folks would be helpful also.

Property.  Any securely owned property is better than none.  Income-generating i.e. apartments for rent or commercial- I hear this phrase a lot, but income that depends on the current economic paradigm makes me nervous.  I could be talked into it I suppose.  What seems safer and simpler to me is a piece of property that my family owns outright, in a different location than I currently live.  Next step would be to develop it a la Geoff Lawton and permaculture paradigm (food forests etc).  A bit more risky to me, that I don't have experience with is to lease to a local farmer (see Craig Wichner http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/80255/craig-wichner-new-model-investing-farmland).  This is intriguing, but I would have a steep learning curve.

A second-order version, maybe after the above purchase is done, is to buy land in another country (for me, Chile, Costa Rica, Canada).

A third-order version is to invest in a fund like Craig Wichner.  Honestly, I am far enough away from accomplishing the first and second order that I'm not ready to invest yet, but I acknowledge it makes some sense.

Tier Three

Here's where things get interesting.  One may ask the philosophical question, should you always be investing in Tier One and Tier Two and just forget about anything else?  Fair question.  The only thing that keeps me thinking is the concept of diversification and the fact that we do not know how long the Fed and CBs can keep Dow rising, etc.

1.  Miners- either ETFs or give your money to Ned or someone who really follows the miners, since seems like there are good Juniors if you are smart

2.  Short the stock market.  If have some belief in Chris' recent analysis, and the courage of your convictions, why not?  There are ETFs that allow you to do this.  If you do ETFs and not Options, you take the element of timing out of it.  You can get hurt if the stock market continues to rise, so you better have a threshold to get out.

3.  Short the bond market.  See above.

4.  Go long commodities ETFs.  DAG et al.  Everyone keeps talking about a world where commodities will be so important in the future.   To my eye, there hasn't been a real up trend in commodities in general, even a recent downtrend in copper for instance.  But we all gotta eat, right?  And they're not making any more farmland?

5.  Options.  For the more adventurous.  Before last week, it seemed that a sure lock was rise in gold and silver (may I repeat- "$85 billion of hot money each month"), but we all know where we are now with PM prices.  But if you get timing and direction correct, you can make large amounts in a hurry, and losses are limited to the amount you are invested.  My asbestos vest is on, so please flame away, but I ask again, do you have the courage of your convictions?

Anyway, I present here a discussion starting point in the spirit of community so that others may agree, or propose an alternative idea.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

 

Nate's picture
Nate
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 6 2009
Posts: 595
thanks for the post

Ken,

A second thanks for starting this group.

Hrunner,

Thanks for the effort and time you put inyour post. 

Tier One - For now my wife and I have passed on the solar since we get a decent % of our electric from hydro.  The situation may change.  The only addition I would make is a weapon (you may have incorporated this in your security section).

Tier Two - Recently Marc Faber and Jim Puplava were asked how they invest in this enviroment (this may be dated by now):  25% equities, 25% hard assests (oil, farmland, PM's),  25% real estate, &  25% cash / bonds.  This made sense to me so we have roughly matched these guidelines.  My gut tells me that PM's will provide the most protection from both inflation and corrupt governments, but I could be wrong.  Regardless of what lies ahead, some of these investments will prosper, some will tread water, and some will do poorly.  Diversifying allows me to sleep at night.

Tier Three - A recent post on this site mentioned meeting and talking to some stock traders.  After that meeting he cashed out.  The current game is so corrupt that going short or getting into options is a waste of time. 

If a PP member walked through our neighborhood, they would be impressed with the amount of preparations that have taken place.  Our local area consists of (almost) entirely small ranches or ranchettes, lots of chickens, small gardens, a milk or beef cow, solar panels, back-up electric, abundant firewood and LOTS of weapons.  A very active 4H program (my wife told me our county has the most 4H kids in California) gives kids excellent skills for what is coming.  But we aren't preppers - we are doing what our parents and their parents have done for a long time. 

Hrunner's picture
Hrunner
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 28 2010
Posts: 256
Nate- thoughts

Nate,

Firstly, congrats on your progress.  It sounds like you are really pulling it together, and I am doubly impressed with your community situation- I think areas like yours will do the absolute best in a difficult transition.

Comments on your Tiers.

I would underscore the goal prioritize firearms because 1) they are fundamental in a balanced life to provide for security and possible food and 2) our government has provided evidence of an (inappropriate and unconstitutional) focus and zeal to go after this freedom first, even prioritizing above freedom of speech, property etc.  So, perhaps though it may be a lesser probability of firearm confiscation, that's a risk you show not take.  Pick a rifle platform- AR15, AK47, AK74 and standardize your family and or prep group around it.  The AR15 or AK74 make a good choice point because the recoil and ammo are lighter, making it useful to women and smaller-framed shooters.  Add in a standard shotgun (12 or 20 gauge, pump or semi automatic- I like the 20 gauge semi-automatic because it is light, handles easily, again for smaller-framed shooters, and is ballistically similar to 12 gauge, but YMMV).  Add a handgun for each family member- I would start with a concealed carry size and go from there.  9 mm hard to beat all around.  Consider standardizing again around one manufacturer (Glock, SW, Springfield, Walther, Taurus, Beretta- too many good ones to list)- why? basic principle to share parts, ammunition, and more importantly working knowledge of how to service the parts, replace parts, and (underappreciated) share spare parts.  Add in a couple of 22 long rifle long guns, you can't beat Ruger 10/22, but many others are good.   You can even buy a 22LR upper for an AR.  Again, standardize.  Buy or reload lots of ammo.  If you only have 4 calibers, this is much easier than if you have 10 calibers.  Plan for 2 training courses a year.  On different platforms, but one handgun, one long gun is a good start.  All of the above goes for any family member who is old enough to responsibly handle a firearm.  Could be 10 years old, could be 16 years old, your judgement.

Food- 90 days up to 1 year longer term stored is squared.  After that, I think the focus should shift to long term sustainability.  Gardening, orcharding (is that a word?), hunting, fishing, getting to know local Co-op producers.  Water- a big cistern (375 gal IBC crate or similar, couple of 55 gal drums) or a swimming pool, plus a way to purify local clean but not potable water and you are good to go.  Have a water plan for what to do if interrupted greater than 1 month.  For me it is- use local creek and boil/ chlorinate for starters.

Tier Two-  Stocks scare the crap out of me, because I agree with Chris and many others that there is no fundamental supporting the stock market.  Things that cannot go on forever, will not go on forever.  I would reduce equities to 10% or 0%.  IMHO.  Hard assets- agree but unless you have lots of money, oil, farmland are kind of difficult.  Maybe Chris' friend Craig Wichner will start a fund that requires less than $500,000 to join.  If you know of such a fund, please advise.  I come to the conclusion that PMs are the best of breed here- small, portable, concentrated wealth, fungible, exchangeable worldwide.  You had farmland separate from real estate.  For most here, I believe if you have additional, left over net worth to protect, these are kind of one in the same.  To reiterate my post, a good purchase is property, possibly in a different locale from where you live, that has either timber, water, land that could be farmed, and permaculture potential.  I think a nice tract with some of all of the above is great, and you have to decide whether you want to go intensive farming, or more of a natural food forest- depends on your time and whether you can arrange for someone to help you farm possibly.

Bonds- seems way overvalued at this time, due to economic distortions and money-printing, plus artificially low interest rates.  As far as I can tell, they are inappropriately valued across the spectrum, from "AAA" (are there any AAA entities left?) to junk.  All are badly priced.   I don't understand why anyone buys high here.  Maybe there is a little room for profit here, yields from 1.7% to 1.2% in 10Y USTs?, but that seems kind of pitiful to me.  Same goes for government versus corporate versus municipal.  You may want to reconsider carefully this asset class.  I think it stinks.  If you undervalue my money, you don't get my money.

I hear you re stock trading and options.  I just see options as 1) a small insurance policy if I am completely wrong about the direction of i.e. PMs (and I don't think I am) and 2)  there has to be a component of reality and rationality to directions of markets, so picking assets + directions is possible,  but again I agree fundamentally with your point.

Take care, H

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