Harvard Researcher Predicts New US Oil Boom Soon == extensively researched position paper

GregB777
By GregB777 on Sun, Feb 24, 2013 - 2:09pm

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf

Hi Everyone!

According to this new report by a Harvard Kennedy School researcher, the US has much. much more oil in the ground than what we normally hear about, adn that the technology to extract it is available.  The prediction is for another US "oil boom," and very soon!

Since this goes against most of what I've read before--- and what Chris has taught me--- I'm putting this up here in the hope that I could get some opinions on this seemingly well-researched paper.

If it is WRONG, WHY is it wrong?  What are they missing?

On the other hand, if you feel it is CORRECT, what have WE been missing?

All input is appreciated!
 

-Greg B

 

3 Comments

thebrewer's picture
thebrewer
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 7 2012
Posts: 110
Lots of "if's and maybe's"

On initial read, and I'm only about 1/3 of the way through it, it seems make a  lot of assumptions about the "cost of recoverable oil" and the numbers being used seem to conflict with most other reports I've read. He's talking about $70 bbl oil possibly from these shale oil fields but for that to happen the technology for extracting that oil would need to improve dramatically. It appears that this report is entirely based upon the assumption of that technology actually being developed, and very quickly.

Now I'm not saying it won't, but in my opinion it seems like a bit of a leap to think that the technology would improve that much that fast. Currently we are pulling more oil out of the ground, but at least in the U.S. the cost per BBL is rising because so many of the new wells are not living up to their promise. 

Don't get me wrong, I hope our collective thinking is wrong and there is black gold in them there hills, but I caution us to consider the environmental impacts of some of these new oil mining techniques. The long term effects are very unknown and I believe it would be prudent to not let our guards down on the "hope" that these potential oil reserves are not to good to be true. We all know how the saying goes...

In my opinion I thinks it would be wiser to stay the course...hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

A. M.'s picture
A. M.
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 22 2008
Posts: 2367
The "best"

Lets say we have another boom.
What happens when that one ends and we've further expanded or protracted our petrol based infrastructure?
What happens when we burn that recoverable petrol in terms of emissions?
Where do go with the resources that are projected, and how will that impact our global population, our social stability and sustainability?

These sound like buzzwords, but I am truly concerned with our cultural continuity.

Oil is not helping. We're not responsible enough to make any measurable gains with another oil boom.
Besides, I agree that it's based on an awful lot of "ifs".

Aaron

HughK's picture
HughK
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 6 2012
Posts: 760
Jean Laherrère's post on Magueri's Oil Revolution

Hi Greg,

The Oil Drum has posted a two part response to Magueri's Oil Revolution, written by Jean Laherrère.

Part I is here.

Part II is here.

Cheers,

Hugh

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