i tulip's tracking of economy

Doug
By Doug on Thu, Feb 14, 2013 - 12:24pm

In reading EJ's 1/24 article Hope and Fear - Part 1; Year of Promise I, as usual, had some difficulty with his charts, particularly the third one, but overall got a pretty good flavor of what he is trying to get across.  Although he criticizes "doomers" rather harshly for their typically doomer predictions, the article and charts seem to me to add up to a rather doomish if not disastrous near term future.  I could be wrong in my interpretation, so would like others' reviews.

Nonetheless, whenever anyone tries to analyze things that are mathematical in nature, my antennae go up when they make simple math errors.  Eric more or less brackets the article with two of them:

Quote:

 Four years ago in January 2008

That was five years ago last month when he wrote it.

Quote:

Baktun are 20 periods of 19.7 years called Katun. One Katun from November 1998 when this site's investigations started ends in 2019.

No, that would be, by his definition, July or August of 2018.

These may seem nitpicking, but, to me, mean something when he is mixing exponential and linear values in one chart, where a small error in one variable can make huge differences in the other scale.  At any rate, here's the link:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/24555-Hope-and-Fear-–-Part-I-Year-of-Promise-Eric-Janszen

That said, I found the US Oil Production per Rig chart (all measurements linear) to be very telling as to the future of our much bally-hooed energy miracle.

Doug

2 Comments

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3082
Eric's got a good grasp on what's going on

Doug -

I've read Eric for years, and coordinated with him a while back when we had him on as a podcast guest.

He's been pretty prescient IMO in his blog posts and his books, accurately predicting (starting over a decade ago) the arc we've been traveling.

In particular, I regard his Ka-POOM theory (since updated as the Jaszen Scenario) as a worthy framework.

As for his rigor on the math details, I can't comment one way or the other (I haven't picked up on similar ones in the past). But I agree that errata like that take the punch out of the larger points being made.

thebrewer's picture
thebrewer
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 7 2012
Posts: 110
Adjusting our sails

I just read the Hope and Fear - Part 1; Year of Promise  and although Eric doesn't think problems are immediate I did take away that he still felt they were eminent. I think the 4th chart really says it all. Clearly the only way to continue at this pace is if oil prices continue to climb in which case would could maintain if not potentially increase production for another decade or two.

Hopefully we don't wait that long before adjusting our sails.

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