PM Weekly Market Commentary - 2/15/2019

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Sat, Feb 16, 2019 - 7:34am

On Friday, gold rose +9.36 [+0.71%] to 1326.72 on moderate volume, while silver jumped +0.17 [+1.06%] to 15.76 on extremely heavy volume. The buck went nowhere, while crude rose +2.52%, SPX +1.09%, and the other metals were all up from 1-2%. Almost everything moved higher.

Friday saw renewed optimism for a US-China trade deal, a settlement of the government shutdown along with an emergency declaration by Trump possibly allowing him $8 billion to spend on a wall anyway, if the Supremes eventually approve. It will be interesting to see how the “strict constructionists” deal with Trump repurposing money.

This good news seemed to drown out a terrible INDPRO report, which blew out the lower end of expectations, and told us that a fair number of sectors have started contracting: consumer goods [-0.68%], durable materials [-1.37%], final goods [-0.87%], manufacturing [-0.90%], and business equipment [-1.48%]. And that was just month-over-month, in January. INDPRO is all seasonally adjusted, so this is not just some post-Christmas slump.

INDPRO is one of the two big series I watch. The turn down in INDPRO is bad news because it is an early warning signal of impending recession. Along with PPIACO, which has turned down even more dramatically, these two are telling us that a recession is becoming much more likely. Both of my quarterly forecasters have signaled a trend change – down – for both series.

Ok.

The sector map for the metals shows a resurgence this week: all items are now back above the 9 MA, and all but platinum are back above the 200 MA. 6 of the 8 items have executed a golden cross, with only copper, platinum, and the silver miners lagging. This week juniors led seniors, but gold led silver. Silver has been the poor stepchild for the past few months. Palladium remains at the top of the list, and indeed, is up 39% over the past 52 weeks. We all should have backed up the truck for Palladium way back when. Bottom line, although gold continues to lead silver, the metals as a group look good, especially longer term – the 200 MA, the golden crosses, etc.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch MA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Palladium $PALL 2.19% 38.96% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-02-01 2019-02-15
Junior Miners GDXJ 1.92% -1.79% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-02-14 2019-02-15
Gold/Euro $GOLD:$XEU 1.26% 8.33% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-02-07 2019-02-15
Platinum $PLAT 0.75% -19.49% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Gold $GOLD 0.56% -2.29% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-02-14 2019-02-15
Senior Miners GDX 0.40% -2.44% falling rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Copper $COPPER 0.05% -13.28% rising rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Silver Miners SIL -0.19% -15.78% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Silver $SILVER -0.44% -6.33% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15

Gold rose +7.40 [+0.56%] this week. Friday's strong rally resulted in a new closing high for gold, as well as a strong swing low (62% reversal), as well as a buy signal from the forecaster. On the daily chart, gold looks as though it is on the cusp of a breakout to higher levels. Gold in Euros looks even stronger – almost a straight line move higher, especially on the monthly chart. Gold remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes, and in both currencies. Weekly chart shows that gold took a two-week pause here, and that has caused forecaster to decline somewhat, but the uptrend remains intact, and in fact looks quite strong.

The March 2019 rate-cut chance is at 1%, while the Dec 2019 rate-cut chance is at 12%, while the rate-increase change is 3%.

COMEX GC open interest rose +3,120 contracts this week.

COT report is still behind; possibly the CFTC has dedicated one temp worker in an office to construct the COT report using a desk calculator, hand-entered from a paper produced 3 days prior by the banksters, which they have delivered to the CFTC (perhaps) by carrier pigeon. At least we're up to 1/25 at this point.

Silver fell -0.07 [-0.44%] this week. Friday's rally managed to rescue silver from a fairly unpleasant week; the candle print was a swing low (55% reversal – pretty strong), the daily forecaster issued a buy signal, and the move also pulled silver back above its 9 MA. The weekly chart doesn't look as good; forecaster issued a sell signal, although the signal is fairly tentative. At this point, silver is in an uptrend in both the daily and monthly timeframes.

The gold/silver ratio rose +0.78 to 83.76. That's bearish. Silver is back to underperforming gold.

COMEX SI open interest rose +9,576 contracts this week; that's 20 days of global production in new paper. From the COT report – as of 2 weeks ago – the commercial short position is very high, and suggests a top.

Miners outperformed the metals this week; XAU rose +1.53%. Back on Monday, XAU forecaster issued a sell signal, but by the time Friday rolled around, XAU's rally enabled it to print a strong swing low (62% reversal), and a buy signal from the daily forecaster. It also rose back above its 9 MA. On the weekly chart, miners remain in a strong uptrend. XAU is in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.

GDX:$GOLD fell -0.16%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio rose +1.51%. That's bullish. Money is now starting to flow preferentially into the junior miners. Not in a big way, but those are the hints I am starting to see around the edges.

This week I wanted to look at some fundamental information on the collection of miners I watch. I came up with a spreadsheet and – inspired by the discussion on “equity market ponzi schemes” I wanted to see if there were any good deals out there, companies selling for below book value, who weren't right on the edge of bankruptcy. Here's what I found:

  price fpe p/s p/b cash/sh debt/sh cash/price
EGO $4.11 82.40 1.39 0.19 2.45 3.80 -32.85%
NGD $0.86 5.40 0.82 0.52 0.18 1.35 -135.88%
IAG $3.60 25.71 1.49 0.60 1.53 0.85 18.90%
AUY $2.60 13.68 1.39 0.61 0.13 1.92 -68.74%
HL $2.68 -269.00 2.19 0.75 0.13 1.14 -37.79%
KGC $3.44 28.67 1.34 0.95 0.28 1.39 -32.33%
GG $10.83 29.27 3.10 0.96 0.20 3.57 -31.09%
FSM $4.02 12.18 2.31 1.07 1.11 0.26 21.11%
MUX $1.85 185.50 5.04 1.26 0.13 0.15 -1.33%
PAAS $14.48 30.16 2.65 1.41 1.65 0.19 10.08%
PVG $7.31 14.62 2.95 1.49 0.25 3.40 -43.14%
AG $6.18 88.21 4.16 1.58 0.41 0.79 -6.15%
NEM $33.25 27.48 2.49 1.67 5.87 7.87 -6.00%
GOLD $12.91 27.47 3.12 1.99 1.35 4.91 -27.54%
EXK $2.29 12.05 1.89 2.04 0.22 0.00 9.61%
GORO $4.55 0.00 2.18 2.15 0.29 0.06 4.98%
AEM $42.83 62.99 4.54 2.20 1.64 7.49 -13.65%
FNV $76.32 66.36 21.28 3.00 0.41 0.00 0.54%

So the metric I used was the price/book ratio.  One company stood out to me: IAG. Now this company has mines in all sorts of crazy places, and that's probably why it is priced so cheaply. But they have a lot of cash – more cash than debt. And they keep paying that debt down, so they are in no danger of going BK. And they are selling for 60% of book value. So I am now long IAG. It does not have mines in safe jurisdictions, however, so if things get iffy around the world, I'd expect trouble for IAG. There is usually a reason why things are cheap.  But it was an interesting exercise.

Do you have a favorite miner?

USD

The buck rose +0.29 [+0.30%] to 96.37. The buck spent this week in fairly choppy movement, up strongly one day, and then down the next. Friday it had a large trading range, printed a shooting star, but forecaster remained in an uptrend. The long white candle on the weekly chart looks bearish (and it also looks like a shooting star), with a 57% reversal chance. The buck remains in an uptrend on both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Right now it appears to be a struggle between dollar-bulls (actually Euro and GBP bears), and dollar-bears (actually risk-on from the US-China trade talks).

This week we saw the following large moves: JPY +0.71%, EUR -0.45%, GBP -0.49%, AUD +0.52%.

US Equities/SPX

SPX ralled +67.72 [+2.50%] to 2775.60. SPX daily forecaster issued a buy signal on Tuesday, and by Friday, it was in a strong uptrend. Also, SPX ended the week comfortably back above the 200 MA. There are no bearish candle prints, and SPX is now in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.

Energy did best this week, along with telecom, while utilities and REITs brought up the rear. Tech and financials were in the lower-middle part of the pack. While the move overall was fairly large, the sectors that moved the strongest were not particularly bullish. Curiously, homebuilders have rallied hard over the past two months, up more than 20%. Falling mortgage rates might have something to do with that move – either that, or the initial plunge in September might have been overdone.

 

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch MA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Energy XLE 5.05% -3.18% rising falling falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-13 2019-02-15
Telecom XTL 4.87% 2.08% rising rising rising falling ma200 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Homebuilders XHB 4.51% -9.52% rising rising falling rising ma200 on 2019-02-12 2019-02-15
Defense ITA 3.70% 2.76% rising rising rising rising ma200 on 2019-02-04 2019-02-15
Industrials XLI 3.59% -2.04% rising rising rising rising ma200 on 2019-02-11 2019-02-15
Materials XLB 3.38% -10.25% rising falling falling falling ema9 on 2019-02-12 2019-02-15
Healthcare XLV 3.24% 9.49% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2019-02-12 2019-02-15
Financials XLF 2.96% -8.92% rising falling falling falling ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Cons Discretionary XLY 2.73% 4.52% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2019-02-12 2019-02-15
Technology XLK 2.40% 3.48% rising rising rising falling ma200 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Cons Staples XLP 1.04% -1.86% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
REIT RWR 0.73% 14.76% rising rising rising falling ma200 on 2019-01-25 2019-02-15
Gold Miners GDX 0.40% -2.44% falling rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Utilities XLU 0.05% 12.14% rising falling rising falling ma50 on 2019-01-31 2019-02-15

The US was #4 in terms of regional equity moves, but there wasn't much of a difference between the regions – all except for Emerging Asia, which actually dropped on the week.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch MA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Eurozone EZU 2.86% -15.02% rising rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-15 2019-02-15
Latin America ILF 2.77% -8.37% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-14 2019-02-15
Developed Asia VPL 2.75% -10.56% rising falling falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-12 2019-02-15
United States VTI 2.71% 1.92% rising falling rising falling ma200 on 2019-02-13 2019-02-15
Europe IEV 2.47% -11.65% rising rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-14 2019-02-15
Emerging Asia GMF -0.43% -15.00% falling falling falling rising ema9 on 2019-02-08 2019-02-15

VIX fell -0.81 to 14.91.

Rates & Commodities

TLT fell -0.37 [-0.30%], chopping sideways with a slight bias to the downside. TLT remains above all 3 moving averages. TY fell -0.09%, also moving more or less sideways. TY remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. The 10-year yield rose +3.4 bp to 2.67%.

JNK rose +0.77% this week, ending Friday on a new high dating back to October 2018. This lines up with the rally in equities, and the general feeling of risk on. HYB concurs. While the uptrend is relatively weak, it is also fairly steady when viewed over the longer term. Just like SPX, JNK is now solidly above its 200 MA.

Crude rose +3.34 [+6.28%] to 56.52, reversing last week's brief downtrend, breaking out to a new multi-month high on Friday. The EIA report (crude: +3.6m, gasoline: +0.4m, distillates: +1.2m) was somewhat bearish, but the market didn't seem to care that much. Crude is back in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.

Physical Supply Indicators

* The GLD ETF tonnage on hand fell -9.09, with 793 tons remaining in inventory.

* ETF Discount to NAV:

 PHYS 10.69 -0.71% to NAV [increase]
 PSLV 5.72 -3.42% to NAV [decrease]
 CEF 12.87 -3.83% to NAV [increase]

* Premium for physical (via Bullion Vault: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do#!/orderboard) vs spot gold (loco New York, via Kitco: https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html) shows no premium for gold, and an 2c premium for silver.

* Gold dealer big bars premiums were: gold [1kg] 1.28% and silver [1000oz] 3.49%.

Grey Swans & Geopolitics

  • Ebola: total cases 823, with 517 deaths, which is 88 new cases this week. The number of new cases continues to climb. I'm not seeing things getting better – they are slowly getting worse. https://www.who.int/csr/don/14-february-2019-ebola-drc/en/

  • Germany – Migration: the new CDU leader, Kramp-Karrenbauer, said, “What happened in September 2015 and after was a humanitarian exception,” she told her CDU party. “We must make sure nothing like it ever happens again, that we have learned our lessons.” It turns out that politicians can, kinda-sorta, apologize for mistakes. Especially when they are made by your predecessor, who is falling on her sword (ever so slowly) as a direct result of this mistake.

  • Italy – Migration: who benefits from migration into Italy? The Italian agriculture industry, that's who. In spite of attempts by the press to blame Salvini, he's not the one exploiting the migrants - well, at least not economically anyway. Arguably, if there were fewer migrants, then the ones who are there would be treated better. Increase supply of labor, and labor exploitation gets worse. Of course, if you gave all the migrants free money - a UBI that you cannot even afford to give your citizens - there would be no exploitation, because the migrants would no longer need to work. Choices, choices.  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/09/african-migrants-italy-hard-right-authorities

  • China - Tariffs: A high-level US negotiating team went to Beijing this week, and more talks are scheduled for next week in Washington. The US is considering a 60-day extension for the March 2 tariff deadline. Will a Trump-Xi meeting happen? Currently the noises from the negotiations remains positive, and that is definitely helping equities. Its hard to know what the real story is, however. China really, really likes the status quo.

  • BRExit – The UK Parliament figured out that taking no-deal BRExit off the table was a terrible negotiating strategy, and they voted it down, handing May another defeat. This will no doubt go right down to the wire. Why? The gang in Brussels wants to make the EU into a “Roach Motel” – you can check in, but you can never check out. Why? Well, if the EU dissolved, what would happen to the jobs and pensions of the unelected bureaucrats that run the place? They'd lose power, they'd have to find real work, and that's just no fun for them. For them, BRExit is an existential threat, and they want to crush the UK so nobody else dares to try it.  The solution is a fairly simple one - but the EU is just not interested in actual solutions.  All they want to do is punish the UK for threatening their jobs.  https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/the-eu-and-uk-are-one-sentence-away-from-a-brexit-deal-why-the-games/

  • Yield Curve Inversion: the 2-10 spread fell -3 bp to 15 bp. Still no inversion.

  • North Korea: no news. Trump-KJU meeting scheduled for the end of February in Hanoi.

  • Mueller Investigation: no news.

Summary

So we went from a “pretty sizeable difference” last week to distinctly happier noises from the US-China trade talks. This overshadowed some pretty bad economic reports that were delayed due to the government shutdown: INDPRO, and Retail Sales, both of which looked unpleasant. Gold seemed to benefit, but so did equities and other risk assets.  Which price indicators do we believe?

Big bar gold premiums on gold remain low, silver's premium has increased slightly, while ETF discounts increased somewhat. There is no shortage of gold or silver at these prices.

Looking through all the fuss, we have to ask ourselves, just how much has the US-China tariff fight and the government shutdown contributed to the worsening economic situation we see happening before our very eyes.  That's a tough question.

Ultimately its hard to know.  Now there are 3 timeseries pointing at a possible recession: Part-Time/Economic Reasons, Retail Sales, and INDPRO are all saying the same thing.  Even if this is some temporary phenomenon, prudence dictates to me that I should be reducing risk, and preparing for a downturn. Rallies of risk assets should probably be sold, rather than dips bought.

Additionally, we are now seeing that gold corrections are shallow, and price continues to periodically break out to the upside.  Money is moving into gold.  Why can't the bullion banks who are allegedly able to sell an infinite number of futures contracts force price lower?  According to the following KWN interview, it is the physical buyers, who load up on every price drop.  When there is fundamental buy-side interest, the shorts become unable to manipulate price, since all it does is provide a lower entry point to the buyers.  Way back during the gold downtrend I made this assertion, but at the time my point found few believers.  At least now I have some company: https://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-2-16-2019/

Weekly trends (in order of strength):

Uptrend: Junky debt, miners, gold/Euros, SPX, gold, 10-year treasury, USD, crude, copper.

Downtrend: platinum, silver.

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9 Comments

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5860
DNC/RNC: Monetizing Congressional Committee Positions

This is a good piece by Sharyl Atkisson on the structural corruption in Congress.

Did you know, for example, that the Chairmanships of the committes go only to those who can pull in (and hand over) close to a million dollars to the DNC or RNC every year?  And these contributions come mainly from...duh...the "interested parties" appearing before said committees?

If you run the Senate Banking Committee: you pick up the phone, call the banks you regulate,they contribute to your campaign,  you turn the cash over to the DNC (or RNC), and you get to keep your position for another year.

Words fail me.  I mean, really.  Who thought this up?  Do they have no shame at all?

 

 

 

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 13 2011
Posts: 2113
Structural corruption--The meningiococcal vaccine for college

I came across an example of this same type of structural corruption on the website of Meryl Nass, MD, an internist from Maine who specializes on complex medical problems, including vaccine related injury.

(I am pro-vaccine for vaccinations that have been clearly demonstrated to be 1) EFFECTIVE , 2) NEEDED and 3) comparatively SAFE.  These include HIB, Prevnar, MMR after age 3, TDap and a few others in special circumstances.)

The state of Maine was debating whether to require entering college freshmen to prove vaccination against Meningococcus before acceptance.  (So you have the right to refuse the vaccination, but you can't go to college if you do.  Some informed consent!)

Her letter to the Maine legeslature is here.

On January 3, 2018 the Maine Legislature's joint committee on health discussed adding the Meningococcal ACWY vaccine to the list required to attend school.  France just added 8 vaccines to its required list last week.  Around the world, a push to get more and more vaccines into schoolchildren, using the threat to withhold schooling, has gained momentum.
 
Yet some vaccines have nothing to recommend them for schoolchildren.  Such as the  meningococcal (Menactra/Menveo) vaccines.  I summarized the facts for our legislators below.
 
Be mindful of the following, please, as it is never taught in health class:  meningococcal disease can be effectively treated with antibiotics, if caught early.  When a child has fever, headache, and a rash or stiff neck they should see a doctor IMMEDIATELY for treatment.
 
 
January 2, 2018
 
Dear Legislators:
 
You finally have an easy decision to make.  There is not a single good reason to add meningococcal vaccine to the schedule required for schoolchildren in Maine.
 
Only 3 factors need to be considered: 
  • 1.   How much benefit?
  • 2.    How much harm?
  • 3.    How much does it cost?
 
Zero to one cases.  In the entire US, only 185 people had a form of meningitis (C, W or Y) that could potentially be prevented by this vaccine last year.
 
You have been told that the purpose of vaccination is to protect adolescents and young adults, who are at higher risk of this disease.
 
Really?  CDC tells us that in children and young adults aged 11 through 23, there were only 21 cases in 2016, in the entire US, that might have been prevented by vaccination.
 
You may think that vaccination is needed for herd immunity.  But that isn't actually true. You may be surprised to learn that about 1/3 of people carry meningococcus in their nose at any one time, and the majority continue to carry it--even after they are vaccinated.  So, herd immunity cannot be achieved for this disease using vaccines. (and here)
 
2.  What are the harms?  The label says that in clinical trials, 1.0-1.3% of adults and adolescents had a serious adverse event. Regarding milder adverse events, over 25% of recipients reported headaches and fatigue. A rare but very serious side effect, Guillain-Barre syndrome [a condition of whole body paralysis that lasts 6 months to a lifetime], may occur.  The Menactra vaccine package insert estimates that between zero and five people, per million vaccinated, may get Guillain Barre syndrome as a result.
 
So while less than 1 person per million Americans will get a meningococcal C, W or Y infection in a year, an additional 0 to 5 people per million vaccinated will develop Guillain Barre syndrome (within six weeks of their vaccination).  [<---  SP explanation point inseretion here !!!!]
 
This is a remarkable statistic.  The risk-benefit equation for this vaccine is so bad, it should never have been licensed in the first place.
 
But it was.  And now you are being asked to expand its use.
 
3.  Cost?  The cost to vaccinate 183,000 schoolchildren in Maine with 2 doses, at $100/dose, is $40 million dollars, which someone has to pay.
 
The vaccine proposal is an expensive boondoggle.  The only beneficiaries of this bill are the pharmaceutical industry and its handmaidens.  Please don't fall for this scam.
 
 
Meryl Nass, M.D.
MIT graduate
Currently practicing Internal Medicine in Ellsworth, Maine
 
davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5860
$21 Trillion: "missing money"

I've been going over and over in my head what "missing money" means.  Let's review.

Dr. Mark Skidmore did an analysis of the DoD and HUD budgets from 1998-2015.  He and his students found that there were $21 trillion dollars in undocumentable adjustments, for a budget that started out at $271 billion in 1998 and ended at $637 billion in 2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

Let's estimate DoD official funding for that period was roughly $10 trillion.  Say HUD added another $750 billion.  Against that, the bean-counters had adjustments of about 200% of that.  Skidmore asserts that a more normal "adjustment" number for a large organization is maybe 3%.

A "debunking" site claims this is just an accounting issue that (in part) basically doesn't deal well with estimating the value of our Aircraft Carriers (assessing how much the USS Nimitz is worth, they claim, is an "unsupportable adjustment").  My summary of their article is reductive; I supply a link to it below.

https://www.metabunk.org/debunked-missing-21-trillion-6-5-trillion-2-3-trillion-journal-vouchers.t9718/

Presumably, this particular issue - accounting for military equipment and pensions - has been around for quite literally centuries.  The US military has had ships, planes, and tanks on the books, and accounted for them somehow, in ways that in the past were "supportable."  However in the past 20 years, the US military has suddenly become incapable of doing basic accounting.  Does this make sense to you?  It doesn't make sense to me.

Furthermore, no less than the US Constitution requires accounting for expenditures, so presumably, such accounting has been a requirement of the armed forces since the founding of the Republic.

“No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law; and a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts and Expenditures of all public Money shall be published from time to time.” ~ Article I, Section 9, Clause 7, The US Constitution

Right.  So the "accounting incompetence" explanation makes zero sense.  The DoD didn't just get stupid over the past 20 years.

I also heard something new from CAF's latest interview.  She might have been saying it all along, but it just penetrated into my brain.  Undocumentable adjustments could be hiding both expenditures and revenues.  Is it possible for the DoD to make money?

Where might the DoD be getting revenues?  Well, in Iraq, there was a lot of conquered territory.  And oil got sold.  Maybe that was a revenue source.  Or CIA running drugs.  Or selling arms.  Why does Mexico have such trouble with their drug lords?  Perhaps the CIA is using the US national technical apparatus to fly top cover for the cartels, and extracting a percentage in return.  Or the mortgage frauds; CAF suggests that there were bank bailouts in 2008 whose totals exceeded the amounts of every mortgage loan in America at the time.  Perhaps that "bank bailout money" was laundered via the banks, who dutifully took their cut, and then into HUD, and then concealed through a collection of "undocumentable adjustments."

CAF is alleging a hidden system of finance where an out-of-control branch of the government has very significant off-books revenues and spending - revenues from fraud or seizure, and then spending it on black budget programs to do - whatever they want, with the banksters being the money-launderers.  (No banker was ever prosecuted for those egregious bank frauds during 2005-2008...and yet, Mueller seems very intent on convicting everyone for lying to the FBI.  Curious, that.)  And the accounting for all of it is covered up by the $21 trilion in undocumentable adjustments.

And nobody dares investigate this, because the well-funded gang in charge has (through our NSA total surveillence system) collected dirt on everyone, and as soon as anyone becomes important, they are owned.  Everyone is guilty of something - finding it is the key.  With total surveillence, that's easy.  You just go back in history, read through all their email traffic, and you'll be sure to find some thread to pull on.  That's a system that J. Edgar Hoover would have given his left nut to have.

So: the hidden system of finance, complete with off-books revenues and spending, covered up by the "undocumentable adjustments" (which are now blessed and made allegedly legal by FASAB-56 - although such a blessing would seem to be unconstitutional on its face) allows the shadow government to fund some pretty extraordinary operations, making people rich along the way who cooperate, and providing "light plane" or "weightlifting" accidents to those who don't, and enforced through total surveillence and blackmail.

How much off-books money are we talking about?  If $21 trillion is representative, that's basically $10 trillion in revenues, and $10 trillion in spending over 18 years, or about the same as the DoD budget, or about 6% of GDP.  Its a big number, but not a stone-cold crazy number.   And the money isn't actually gone.  The $21 trillion in adjustments could be covering up both revenues and expenses for an off-books deep state-within-a-state.

After all, if you have a "deep state", it needs funding.  CAF loves "following the money" because that's the trail they can't really erase.  And just perhaps, this is how they have covered it up.

thc0655's picture
thc0655
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“Paranoia strikes deep”

“It starts when you’re always afraid,” and when you’re constantly lied to.

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
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Joined: Jul 26 2016
Posts: 392
PMs

What's up with gold and silver today?  Saw an article over the weekend about one of the big banks potentially having to liquidate a billion in Venezuela's gold and thought we'd wake up to a sea of red.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5860
gold & silver

I don't have an answer for you.  I don't see the PM moves tied to anything else I watch, and there wasn't some grand spike higher, just a slow, steady rise after the breakout above 1331.

I mean, call me crazy, but it looks like traders want to load up on the yellow metal.

And silver too, to a lesser extent.

Boy and the miners...they opened at the breakout point, and just kept moving higher.  Juniors look even crazier.

Pullbacks are shallow, breakouts look strong...its an uptrend.

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lambertad
Status: Silver Member (Online)
Joined: Aug 31 2013
Posts: 189
peru crackdown.

Peru launches crackdown on illegal gold mining in Amazon
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peru-launches-crackdown-illegal-gold-015922434.html

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 25 2014
Posts: 1022
umm... do you remember what I said a week and a half ago?

As far as I can tell, all these pulbacks and pauses and downdrafts are not the PPT shorting gold; they are rather normal surges and pauses in the formation of a cup structure that has begun, but not finished.

A week and a half ago, I said I thought that in two to three weeks, gold would blow through its top.

of course, I'm not in gold at the moment.

I AM in PMs, though. But gold is as good an indicator as any of what PMs are doing.

In other words, I could put it a different way. Most of the move in gold is bubble behavior. The buyers have arrived.

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3309
Gold Moving Higher In the Aftermarket: Just Hit $1,350

Today's strength in the PMs is continuing in the aftermarket so far.

Gold has just hit $1,350 (a price last seen in April 2018) and silver is back above $16

From the newly-revamped PP Today's Market page:

The big question here is: Can they go higher?

$1,350 has been a ceiling for gold since 2013/2014.

If it can punch above $1,400 and hold, then we're in a new (bullish) era.

I leave it to Dave to expound on this more intelligently...

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