PM Daily Market Commentary - 9/20/2018

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - 9:41am

Gold moved up +3.56 [+0.29%] to 1214.58 on moderate volume, while silver rose +0.08 [+0.56%] to 14.36 on heavy volume. The buck plunged -0.67%, a big move down, which didn't help gold and silver as much as I would have expected, but the other metals did very well.

Gold moved higher in fits and starts, ending the day relatively near the highs. The spinning top candle was a bullish continuation, and gold forecaster rose +0.16 to +0.32, which is a strengthening uptrend. Gold/Euros actually fell on the day, mainly because the Euro was up +0.86%. While gold is in an uptrend in the daily and weekly timeframes, it always makes me nervous when the buck tanks hard, and gold barely moves higher.  Gold stopped right at the 50 MA.

COMEX GC open interest fell -505 contracts.

Rate rise chances (September 2018) fell to 92%.

Silver was all over the map, chopping up and down, but finally closing near the highs of the day. The spinning top candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved up +0.07 to +0.29. Silver weekly is now showing a buy signal (assuming we close here at end of week), and that puts silver in an uptrend in both daily and weekly timeframes.  I still don't like silver underperforming copper this badly, however; you can see that silver has yet to break out from its recent trading range.

COMEX SI open interest fell -854 contracts.

The gold/silver ratio fell -0.22 to 84.46. That's bullish for today, and the current level for the ratio suggests PM could be at or near a long term low.

Miners continued to rally today, with GDX up +0.96% on heavy volume, while GDXJ climbed +1.46% on extremely heavy volume. XAU only moved up +0.15%, with the spinning top candle looking bearish (42% bearish reversal). Forecaster moved higher, however, rising +0.19 to +0.69, which is a very strong uptrend. XAU remains in an uptrend in both daily and weekly timeframes.  Miners look as though they encountered a bit of selling pressure today.

The GDX:$GOLD ratio rose +0.66%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio moved up +0.49%. That's bullish.

Platinum rose +1.36%, palladium moved up +1.51%, and copper climbed +1.42%. All three other metals did quite well today; palladium is up more than 20% off its August lows,

The buck fell -0.63 [-0.67%] to 93.49, a large drop. That was all about the euro [+0.86%]. The plunge today was enough to cause the monthly to issue a sell signal; that puts the buck into a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. The way the metals and the buck are trading, its as if the tariff issue is all but settled. Well, all except for gold and silver, which for some reason just can't really catch a bid.  You can see in the daily chart that the buck has broken down below the most recent support level...this is not good news for the buck.

Crude fell -0.84 [-1.19%] to 69.99. Crude rallied early, making a new high to 71.35, but then lost it all and then some once the US market opened. The bearish harami candle could mark the top (41% bearish reversal), and crude forecaster dropped -0.25 to +0.38. Crude remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. Trump did issue a tweet on the subject, suggesting that OPEC start capping the price of oil; perhaps that had an effect.

SPX climbed +22.80 [+0.78%] to 2930.75, which is a new all time high for SPX. SPX is in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. Staples led (XLP:+1.26%) along with tech (XLK:+1.18%), while energy (XLE:+0.03) brought up the rear. The breakout to a new all time high was very bullish, but the sector map itself was just mildly so.

VIX rose +0.05 to 11.80.

TLT rallied +0.46%, regaining much of what it lost yesterday. The swing low didn't look all that impressive though. TY didn't look nearly as good, rising +0.01%, printing a neutral-looking doji candle. TY remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. The 10-year yield rose +0.3 bp to 3.08%. It looks as though there were some buyers for 30 year debt at yield 3.2%.

JNK rose +0.14%, recovering from yesterday's drop; the bullish harami candle print was actually neutral, however, and forecaster remains in a downtrend.

CRB rose +0.49%, managing to close above the 50 MA, which is a positive sign. 4 of 5 sectors rose, led by agriculture (+1.13%).

While the other metals are looking reasonably good - including platinum, which has had some serious troubles in the past year - gold and silver just can't seem to find any buyers right now.  The fact that gold and silver can't seem to move much on a day when the buck gets hit this hard is not a good sign.

Can the miners hang in there with gold and silver acting this weak?  I think we'l soon find out.

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