PM End of Week Market Commentary - 6/15/2018

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Sun, Jun 17, 2018 - 3:42am

On Friday, gold plunged -23.80 [-1.82%] on extremely heavy volume, and silver dived -0.62 [-3.61%] to 16.57 on extremely heavy volume also. Most commodity sectors were hit hard, presumably by concerns about tariffs, and PM was no exception.

Its my belief, just looking at the enthusiasm of the gold & silver drop, that there was some central planner intervention. Volume was immense, and the big sell-off came a day after a huge rally in gold-in-Euros – in fact, Friday's drop completely erased the gain caused by Thursday's surprisingly dovish ECB announcement. If you are a central planner and you want to engage in financial repression, it is probably best to close down the alternative-escape hatches as much as you possibly can.

Open interest had some big changes on Friday; gold's OI rose by 12,266 contracts, while silver's OI plunged by -11,537 contracts. Silver's change was huge; 26 days of global silver production (or about 5% of total outstanding open interest) disappeared, which looks a lot like cash-register-ringing by someone. In the old days I'd say it was the commercials, but who knows today. Currently, the OI for silver is 502 days of global production. That's really large. Contrast with gold at 216 days, which is also fairly large.

It was a big week for news; the Trump-KJU summit, the Fed meeting, then the ECB meeting, and finally the imposition of tariffs by the US on select Chinese imports. And piling on, migration is starting to move to the forefront of politics in the EU – in Germany, Austria, and in Italy.

The PM sector map showed red across the board, with copper doing worst. Gold led silver down, but the miners were the best performers - that's not normal behavior during a PM downdraft.  Usually miners get hit hardest.  All items have dropped back below the 9 MA, and most are below the 50 and the 200. Only copper and gold/Euros remains above the 50, 200, and with a golden cross. To me that suggests economic strength, along with some concern about Europe and/or the Euro itself.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch MA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Junior Miners GDXJ -0.21% -0.03% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Gold/Euro $GOLD:$XEU -0.31% -1.90% falling rising rising rising ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Senior Miners GDX -0.58% 0.59% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Silver $SILVER -1.49% -0.90% rising rising falling rising ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Gold $GOLD -1.65% 2.11% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Palladium $PALL -2.09% 14.09% falling rising rising rising ma200 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Silver Miners SIL -2.12% -11.86% falling falling falling rising ema9 on 2018-06-08 2018-06-15
Platinum $PLAT -2.25% -3.80% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Copper $COPPER -4.96% 22.10% falling rising rising rising ema9 on 2018-06-14 2018-06-15

Gold fell -21.50 [-1.65%], with all the losses coming on Friday's big plunge. Gold made a new low on Friday, and printed a bearish-looking swing high (51% bearish reversal), erasing 18 days of struggling upward movement in one massive blast down. Forecaster dropped -0.27 to -0.27, which is a sell signal for gold. Gold weekly also issued a sell signal, and the monthly has been in a downtrend for the past 5 months. That's all fairly bearish. Gold in Euros daily and weekly remain in uptrends in spite of the big sell-off Friday.  Gold made a new low this week; that's bearish.

The September rate-increase chances is at 85%.

COMEX GC open interest rose 29,954 contracts this week; thats 14 days of global mine output in new paper gold.

The commercial net position fell -6.2k contracts, which is 1.6k new shorts, and 4.6k longs sold. Managed money net rose +4.6k contracts, which is 4.2k new longs, and 338 closed shorts. These were very minor changes in the gold positioning. Of course, this didn't take into account the massive plunge on Friday; we'll only know the details about that a week from now.

Silver fell -0.25 [-1.49%], rising for 3 days, only to collapse on Friday's big smash. Candle print was a swing high (58% bearish reversal), and a sell signal from the forecaster, dropping -1.11 to -0.62. That's all pretty unpleasant. Silver weekly somehow remains in an uptrend, but the monthly is in a downtrend. Instead of breaking out, silver is once more heading towards the lower end of its trading range. “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”

The gold/silver ratio fell -0.13 to 77.37 – I'm shocked its still slightly bullish.

COMEX SI open interest fell -9,196 contracts. That's 25 days of global production of paper silver gone just this week.

The commercial net position fell...whoa, a massive -29.8k contracts, which was 25k new shorts, and 4.8k longs sold. Managed money net position jumped +36k contracts, which was 20k new longs, and 16k covered shorts. During the coverage period, silver rallied 4 days out of 5, and broke above its old trading range. Without the huge amount of shorting by the commercials, silver would have performed a whole lot better. This was a very large change in position. I can't say for sure this was the central banks, but “someone” printed 3887 tons of paper silver, or about 2 months of global production.

Miners fell -0.42%, which was a relatively minor move. Friday's miner plunge was actually fairly modest. Looking intraday, I saw something pretty interesting: while gold and silver were steadily being pounded lower, the miners moved sideways. Both GDX and GDXJ had a solid bid throughout the day. Volume on both ETFs was also quite heavy. To me, this says that there is a very strong bid underneath the mining shares – at least on Friday – someone stood ready to buy every share that was being sold. More or less anyway. That's quite bullish. Candle prints were bearish-looking swing highs (57% bearish reversal), and XAU forecaster plunged -0.53 to -0.35. That's a sell signal for the miners. Weekly also remains in a downtrend, while the monthly is still up.

The GDX:$GOLD ratio rose +1.09%, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio climbed +0.37%. That's bullish. Surprisingly bullish, especially given what happened on Friday. Could this be a tell?

USD

The buck shot up +1.29 [+1.38%], with all of the excitement happening on Thursday. It was all about the surprisingly dovish ECB saying they'd stay at the dreadfully repressive zero bound for the next year. The Euro cratered when traders heard that, and gold in Euros shot up $26 Euros in one day. I suspect that move got the attention of our central planners who probably jumped into action on Friday to restrain gold prices from getting out of control.

Normally, gold isn't so exciting to hold, since it has a carry cost (due to storage fees), but – at this point – so do Euros deposited in a bank. This is not a vote of confidence in the strength of the Eurozone overall. Why keep rates at the zero bound if things are doing well?

It wasn't just the Euro that tanked – across the globe, the buck rallied against every currency I track. Rand, Korean Won, AUD, CAD all dropped more than 2%, and another group (CHF, JPY, GBP, RUB, INR, MXN, THB, PHP) were down between 1-2%.

The buck made new highs, and is now back in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. Who's your daddy again this week? Uncle Sam, that's who. And we haven't even started yet on the real troubles I see coming.  Eurozone troubles.  Only thing that stops the buck - my opinion - is a Trump impeachment proceeding.

US Equities/SPX

SPX rose +0.39 [+0.01%], effectively going nowhere this week. Friday saw a forecaster sell signal, but the chart doesn't look all that threatening. Weekly and monthly are both in uptrends. SPX remains in a medium term pattern of higher highs and higher lows. While it has yet to break out above its high set back in February, it does appear on track to do just that.

The sector map was mixed. Telecom did best, along with consumer discretionary. Energy was clobbered, along with defense and financials. I have to say, that doesn't look all that bullish to me.

VIX fell -020 to 11.98. VIX below 12 is usually a decent buy.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch MA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Telecom XTL 2.34% 2.32% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2018-06-01 2018-06-15
Cons Discretionary XLY 1.99% 23.95% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2018-05-30 2018-06-15
Utilities XLU 1.75% -8.77% falling falling falling rising ema9 on 2018-06-14 2018-06-15
Cons Staples XLP 1.40% -9.55% rising falling falling falling ma50 on 2018-06-08 2018-06-15
Healthcare XLV 0.49% 9.75% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2018-06-01 2018-06-15
Technology XLK 0.06% 29.06% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Gold Miners GDX -0.58% 0.59% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Homebuilders XHB -1.09% 5.63% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Industrials XLI -1.73% 9.22% falling rising rising falling ema9 on 2018-06-13 2018-06-15
REIT RWR -1.78% -4.40% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2018-06-13 2018-06-15
Materials XLB -1.81% 10.53% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2018-06-13 2018-06-15
Financials XLF -2.17% 12.54% falling falling rising falling ma200 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Defense ITA -3.01% 25.21% falling falling rising falling ma50 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15
Energy XLE -3.55% 12.94% falling rising rising rising ma50 on 2018-06-15 2018-06-15

Gold in Other Currencies

Gold fell in all currencies this week, especially gold in USD.

Rates & Commodities

TLT rose +0.71%, moving higher in fits and starts. Thursday was the big day for TLT. TY didn't do nearly as well, rising just +0.06%, but TY forecaster did manage to issue a buy signal on Thursday, and the weekly TY also issued a buy signal this week too. So both daily and weekly uptrends for Ty, while monthly remains pointing down.

JNK rose +0.56%, which makes a second week of good news for JNK. It has been a slow but steady move higher.

BAA-AAA ratio, the bond fear gauge, made a new high this week. The spread is up +3 bp to 90 bp, a level last seen in November, 2016. What's a scary level? Looking at history, minor recessions cause a 150 bp spread, the 2008 crisis resulted in a 380 bp spread, and the Great Depression saw a spread of almost 600 bp. “All quiet” is around 60 bp. So we are moving higher, but are far from recession.  Here's what that looks like on a monthly chart.

Crude fell -1.31 [-2.00%] to 64.23, with all of the damage coming on Friday. The swing high candle print had a 52% chance of being a bearish reversal, and forecaster issued a sell signal, although not a particularly strong one. Crude made a new low on Friday. EIA report this week was quite bullish (crude: -4.1m, gasoline: -2.3m, distillates: -2.1m), which did move prices higher on Wednesday, the day of the report. Still, oil remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. The rallying dollar isn't helping, neither did the tariff announcement on Friday.

Physical Supply Indicators

* The GLD ETF tonnage on hand was unchanged, with 829 tons in inventory.

* ETF Discount to NAV:

 PHYS 10.39 -0.52% to NAV [decrease]
 PSLV 6.05 -3.09% to NAV [increase]
 CEF 12,88 -2.74% to NAV [increase]

* Bullion Vault gold (https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do#!/orderboard) shows no premium for gold or silver.

* Big bars premiums were: gold [1kg] 1.12% and silver [1000oz] 3.10%.

Grey Swans & Geopolitics

  • Ebola: no new cases reported. Things seem to be under control at this point.

  • German Government: conservative German interior minister Seehofer has a plan to crack down on migration: he wants to have German border guards to refuse entry to migrants who have already registered in other EU countries. Merkel doesn't like this idea; she is looking to make bilateral deals with Italy, and Greece similar to the deal with Turkey to control migration. If she can't, her coalition may well explode, perhaps leading to new elections, and an even stronger AfD party. This could be days away. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany/merkel-seeks-eu-migrant-talks-as-german-coalition-crisis-looms-paper-idUSKBN1JC11X

  • Italian Government: Italian interior minister Salvini refused to allow a ship full of rescued migrants to unload at an Italian port. Macron called Italy hypocritical, then de Maio suggested that France allow such boats to land in France instead of in Italy, and then Italy called in the French ambassador for a “talk”. No doubt all of this is making Salvini even more popular with the Italian electorate, and that's probably Salvini's goal: from outsider, to Interior Minister, to Prime Minister; one step at a time.  Benito Salvini.  (Did I just say that??)  All because of migration - the blowback from the destruction of Syria and Libya.

  • US Congressional Elections, 2018. The generic ballot shows Democrats 47.3% [+7.5%] vs Republicans 39.8%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

  • North Korea: Trump and KJU met on June 12th, and signed a document which was either better than anything that came before, or a big nothing-burger for the US, where Trump gave away everything that North Korea wanted, depending on which echo chamber you live in. I found an Asia Times article that provided an eastern-flavored view of the event - it viewed it as largely positive: http://www.atimes.com/article/the-art-of-the-deal-worked-on-sentosa-island/

  • Mueller Investigation: The IG's 568 page report  was released this week: https://www.justice.gov/file/1071991/download. Where can you find a summary you can trust? Its tough these days; every source appears hopelessly biased. My favorite history prof always said: go for the source documents. If you read the report yourself, you will get to see who got immunity and why, how many emails they found on Anthony Wiener's laptop, and much more. Your Tax Dollars At Work! And only 568 pages.

Summary

This week saw a deluge of events from across the globe. Some affected prices immediately, while some are just some grey swans edging slowly closer to a release point. The buck was a big winner, while commodities were hammered, with gold and silver getting hurt along with everything else.

The gold COT went nowhere, but there were astonishingly large changes in silver, with commercials loading up heavily short, and managed money jumping in long, buying the breakout, and covering short – just in time for Friday's big sell-off. I'm guessing the heavy volume on Friday was managed money panicking back out again.  Is this a top in silver?  It could be.  Its hard to say.

Big bar gold and silver premiums are relatively low; my supply indicators suggest there is no current shortage of physical gold or silver.

Next week looks fairly quiet from an economic report standpoint - just some home sales data.

However the political situation in Europe is slowly heating up. One politician in Austria named Kurz even suggested forming an “axis of the willing” - addressing migration issues with Italy, Germany, and Austria, organizing to crack down on illegal migration. Oh good, an axis, just what we need.  http://www.dw.com/en/austrias-sebastian-kurz-wants-a-migration-axis-of-the-willing-with-germany-italy/a-44205563

The tighter the lid Brussels keeps on the whole migration business, the bigger the explosion it will be once it finally breaks loose. Local politicians will see they can become Prime Minister if they break with Brussels and are tough on migration – Salvini is one, Seehofer is another. No amount of money printing by the ECB will fix it. And the economic stagnation that the structure of the Euro enforces on Southern Europe just turns the heat up even further.

And this is happening during a "good" economy.  Just think what happens when things start to turn sour.  Immigration is a much bigger target during a downturn.  The mind boggles at the thought.

Weekly trends (in order of strength):

Uptrend: SPX, copper, silver, USD, 10-year treasury, gold/Euro.

Downtrend: miners, crude, gold, bitcoin, BBB corporates.

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24 Comments

Nate's picture
Nate
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 6 2009
Posts: 590
CAF podcast

Money manager Catherine Austin Fitts says, “The global economy is going to be controlled from space.” Even the U.S. dollar’s viability will depend on “how good the U.S. space program is . . . . President Trump gets it.” Fitts contends, “Trump has done a remarkable job educating the American people about the real deal. He’s currently educating people that you have to make the cash flows work on trade work. That’s number one. There is such a thing as financial accountability. . . . Number two, so he’s saying look, if we are going to stay dominate, we need to be successful in space. We need to have a ‘space force,’ and p.s. we have all these magical and mysterious weapons and wink, wink, they have something to do about space. So much of the current plan of ‘Make America Great Again,’ pull back behind the oceans, really depends on projecting power through space. I always say the satellite lanes are the sea lanes of the 21st century. That’s why this competition in space is so very important.”

Fitts says President Trump has a mammoth job turning America around and contends, “Trump is trying to turn the aircraft carrier around before we hit the iceberg. It’s a very, very messy process. If you and I were going to turn it around, we would want to get in a room and have an honest conversation. There is so much criminal liability involved nobody can have an honest conversation. It’s making it very difficult. . . .Trump has done more than any other leadership around the world to try and inspire transparency, and he has taken enormous risks to do it. I give him credit for it.”

Fitts goes on to say, “The establishment has stolen $50 trillion plus, and they want to keep it, and they want to invest it in the space based economy and not have to give it back to the pension funds. One of the most important techniques they are going to use to do that is basically with digital control, with both of the currency, as well as the systems that do surveillance and control. So, (they think) if we can get 7 billion people on smart phones and 5G coming in from satellites or land, anyway you do it, and everybody has a digital currency, and if you don’t behave, you turn off their currency.   We are talking about ways of controlling people through the digital systems which are very, very invasive. . . . If you look at the policies going on, whether it’s the effort to bring in the guns or effort to force cashless, those who are centralizing control of the economy, they want to make sure they have control because when they invest that money, they want to make sure it makes their wealth go up and not the general population’s wealth go up. They don’t want to have to refund those monies back into the pension funds or Social Security. They want to be able to say, well, the money is gone, and we spent too much of it and did not balance the books and etcetera, etcetera. So, this is what this is about. This is about who is going to allocate what resources that are there, and are they going to be in a position to harvest and drain the American taxpayer.”

https://usawatchdog.com/elite-stole-50-trillion-and-will-invest-in-space-catherine-austin-fitts/

 

shastatodd's picture
shastatodd
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delusional

wow, i once respected fitts... but clearly she is delusional.

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
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Strong suport of CAF's capacity to see the overall "story"

The Myers-Briggs (Jungian) Typology describes a cognitive function that all human beings have (to some degree) called "intuition."  (In this framework, "intuition" does not mean extrasensory perception as it does in common usage.)   The intuitive function is the ability to notice multiple physical data-points and to build, or extrapolate, a "story" or conclusion that ties them all together.  The story-building happens at an unconscious level and emerges in a flash of insight  where one suddenly "knows" the story.

Sherlock Holmes is the ultimate fictional intuitive sleuth who sees a drop of mustard on a person's coat, detects a twinge of an accent on a certain vowel sound, notices the subtle odor of a certain cigar, and from that builds a story of how the crime happened.

Unfortunately, brilliant leaps of intuition are NOT always correct.  Once the story leaps from the unconscious,  process, we then have to continue to gather information that confirms or refutes the accuracy of our "story."

I have tremendous respect for Catherin Austin Fitt's and her abilities to notice the important data points and intuit "the story."  Very high intelligence, educated, spiritual, walking in the circles of power for decades.  She is a voracious reader.

The data-points that are the foundation of her story are many.

1.  9/11 was a staged event intended to reshape global power. The buildings were blown up, the Air Force "stood down," The pentagon and Shanksville events make no sense.

2.  The general arrangement of an oligarchy who own and lead the sheep.

3.  The use of the media to shape public thinking.

4.  The extraction of vast sums of money from the governement and pension systems into secret projects run by the oligarchy.  The population serves as a milk cow for the purpose of the oligarchy.

5.  The presense of other extraterrestrial cultures with some interactions with humans on earth.  Regaurds the UFO / ET interactions as real.  Recovered aircraft, personal interactions with ETs.

6.  A secret space program, where some technologies of ET cultures are known or back engineered and undercontrol of factions in the oligarchy.

7.  Sees active climate engineering.  (Chem trails, HAARP, others)   Plunging farmland into drought and buying the farmland from bankrupt farmers for pennies on the dollar.  Centralizing control of food production.

8.  A spiritual viewpoint.  She feels the presense of God and talks and listens.  (YELLOW Meme Christian structure.)

9.  The thrust of world events is largely the movement to centralized control of "the sheep."  Personal friend of Aaron Russo and trusts him absolutely.

10.  Sees the abolition of cash, the ubiquitous monitoring of phones, cars, biometrics, transactions, travel and personal "social scores" (as is being done in China) as the continuation of this domination process.

11.  Full specturm dominance on "land, see, space and cyberspace."

As you can see, I respect CAF a great deal.   Even though I don't see everything exactly as she does, my judgement is that she is briliant, insightful, very well read, and probably has most of the big picture correct.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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from gold to UFOs

The whole "space" thing of hers is just a logical extrapolation of the UFO phenomenon.

It goes like this.

If UFOs are real (and certainly, we are seeing DOD footage of something that sure looks like what everyone has been talking about for the last 70 years), they aren't powered by gasoline, and they can most likely travel FTL.

If years ago the US government got their hands on one of these, and reverse engineered bits and pieces over time, they most likely posses the ability to construct similar craft as well as derivative tech.

If the government maintains a monopoly on this tech, it allows for total control over space; the primary expense of space-based weaponry is the cost of the launch.  It also solves our energy issue.  It also solves the climate issue.  It also solves the issue of ballistic missile defense.

It has been said - I forget by who - that the Russians got the bomb partially from espionage, but also because after the US dropped the bomb on Japan, they knew without a doubt that it was actually possible to do.

Knowing that something is possible helps provide certainty to a project.

Why keep it secret?  Well if it were cheap/easy to go into space, all it would take is one crazy person with a spaceship to grab an mid-sized asteroid and lob it at the earth.  Instant ELE, life on earth ceases to exist.

We have a lot of crazy people here.

Cheap space travel = power to destroy the planet.

So, if UFOs exist, and the US government got its hands on one, the rest of the chain is just a logical extrapolation of that event.

Cornelius999's picture
Cornelius999
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Just a little more

Just a little more provocative detail to Dave's account.  A very big Nazi sub in Spring 1945 surrendered in a named U S port. It had been originally destined for Japan and had two jap officers on board complete with much refined uranium & infra red fuses for a Nazi A bomb.  It also carried a dis-assembled advanced jet fighter. The remainder of the uranium was found in ~ 175 thousand barrels stored in a German salt mine in 2011.

The US needed this assistance to complete their bomb.  Top Nazis knew a winning trade. See" Critical Mass " by Carter Hydrick. It's a funny old world.

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
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I don't think it was espionage, just bungled security.

If I remember right, it was a matter of conjecture whether we could build a hydrogen bomb; the Russian physicist Sakharov went to his political advisors and said, "no, the Americans have done it." When asked how he could confirm it, he pointed to a huge and steep drop in the number of published articles on nuclear physics.

As with many things, the knowledge that it could be done was all it took.

skipr's picture
skipr
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From UFOs to Global Warming

I agree with most of what CAF says.  However, some of those "UFOs will save us" conferences she goes to also deny that global warming is real, at least they used to a few years ago.

As far as chemtrails go, show me a sample that has been chemically analysed.  If they are causing all of the drought in the farmlands, AZ should be flourishing since I see very few of them here in Tucson.  But yet this 20 year long drought is only getting worst.  I'm getting out of here ASAP.

Space based economy?  That will require a massive amount of that "UFOs will save us" energy since the fossil fuels we actually know about are falling off a Seneca Cliff.  That sounds like some of those wild and crazy ideas that were being proposed during the Bush2-Rummy era.  Some DARPA contractors actually proposed building something similar to a Hubble Space Telescope entirely in space.  This would include all of the material machining and high precision primary mirror polishing.  They couldn't polish the Hubble's primary mirror correctly down here on planet earth, much less in space.

Cornelius999's picture
Cornelius999
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The sub also contained dis

The sub also contained dis assembled V2 rockets and maybe currency or gold. Nazis under Martin Boremann organized the mass transfer of Germany's wealth abroad secretly. Also what was looted in Europe.

It wasn't just the Marshall Plan's dollars that helped Germany rise again phoenix-like in the new Europe.

" There's nothing new in the world except the history you don't know yet "  H. Truman.

And when Hitler talked about his super-weapons, he meant just that.

Maybe the original E U owes something to inherited Hitler wealth. German companies certainly do.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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chemtrails

Yeah, I'd like to see more evidence for the chemtrail thing myself.

Like SP, I still value CAF's insights even if I don't follow her down every single rabbit hole.  And who knows, maybe she just knows more than I do.

 

phusg's picture
phusg
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Conspiracies

Guys, I like to keep an open mind on 'conspiracy' theories, but some of this is verging on the ridiculous. At some point you have to ask yourself whether this is something you really want to believe because of some motivation other than the facts.

Sure, I'm more than open to suggestions that alien life is not only possible but quite probable given the size of the known universe. But the same size of the universe coupled with the physical barrier formed by the speed of light should make us sceptical about any alien visitors so soon after we've started emitting signals. And if they had the technology to find us and get here so fast, why would they then not either wipe us out like ants on a hill or approach us as one worldwide species, if their moral compass was the other way around?

There are a huge number of alternative explanations for any such footage that are each more probable than alien UFOs. For example even this explanation seems more probable to me: UFOs and Perception Management

And concerning the precious metals manipulation:

If you are a central planner and you want to engage in financial repression, it is probably best to close down the alternative-escape hatches as much as you possibly can.

I agree that there is motive there and with fiat currency also the means. But given that silver and gold fell the least on the week, compared to the other precious metals and copper:

Silver $SILVER -1.49%  
Gold $GOLD -1.65%  
Palladium $PALL -2.09%
 
Platinum $PLAT -2.25%  
Copper $COPPER -4.96%

I don't see the case for central planner intervention here. Do they have the means and the motive to drag down all these other metals too? And if they do, why not drag the miners down as well?

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
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I have to agree with phusg.

That said, I was so tempted to put it in other terms:

"... aliens and ufos I can see, but giving Trump credit for steering the ship proves she's delusional..."

...because although I didn't vote for Trump, nonetheless he seems like a pretty normal president to me, and the continual rancor I read everywhere just doesn't make logical sense to me. I understand why, but not how people can stand the taste of the words they say.

That said, Sand also is right: intuition can be wrong. In some senses, the boundary between intuition and delusion might be thin.

To be short, I see a better case for a spiritual world as described by three thousand years of human religion, than for aliens, and agree with Phusg.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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Posts: 5408
intervention, etc

phusg-

I'm in the unusual position of having someone tell me I'm too much of a conspiracy theorist about a gold smash.  Its kind of fun.  What would Jim say if he could see it?  Presumably I'm just doing this to build my credibility amongst the goldbugs.  :)

Things were pretty much normal until Friday rolled around.  If you look at copper's volume on Friday, it was only slightly above normal.  The candle was largish, but not overly so.  But gold's move was huge - for gold.  Look at gold's Friday candle vs all the other gold days.  The trading range was far out of the average.  And the volume was immense.  Typically gold does better than most commodities during a commodity smash.  It drops the least.  That's my observation - because of gold's "money-ness".  Gold is (lets say) 60% currency 40% commodity.  Silver might be 25% currency 75% commodity.  And copper is 100% commodity.  So during a commodity smash, gold gets hurt, but much less so than other things.

But not Friday.  Friday, gold got absolutely shellacked - for gold.  And volume was really, really high.  And that was just one day after gold staged a huge gold-in-euros rally, right after Draghi said he was gonna keep things loose for another year.

I don't think they caused the smash - I just think they piled on and intensified the move down in gold and silver.

As for silver - my models say that the prices of the two are highly correlated.  If I were in charge of manipulation, I'd pound silver to assist in moving gold lower.  Silver is a much smaller market, and a plunge in silver tends to pull gold lower.  And again, the move down was "way too large" to match up with the other moves.  Copper and silver tend to move together, but copper's drop was half of silver's drop.

The whole thing just looked abnormal to me.

As for the miners - usually they get hit hard whenever gold drops.  And miners probably would have dropped if not for a big bid underneath the miners on Friday.  They basically just moved sideways as gold plunged - normally they move together.  Some big money buyer was out there buying GDX and GDXJ.  It wasn't a solid line, but it was - roughly - strong support.

This isn't hard evidence, its just my sense based on how the PM complex has behaved over the past 6-12 months.

And its only about Friday.

As for UFOs - I'm of the thought that the speed of light may well be a limit to travel as we know it today, but that our grasp of science may not encompass everything.  Perhaps that's just too many sci-fi movies, but I pretty much assume the speed of light is just a limit for the boring, pre-space-travel civilizations.  That's not evidence either, but it is my operating assumption.  My assumption is that FTL travel is possible.

If FTL travel isn't possible, then I would agree with you - alien visitation is very unlikely under that scenario.  If FTL travel IS possible, then I think alien visitation is almost assured.  Just think of all those interstellar grad students eager to write dissertations on the crazy antics of pre-space-flight civilizations.

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cmartenson
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Posts: 5727
FTL travel
davefairtex wrote:

As for UFOs - I'm of the thought that the speed of light may well be a limit to travel as we know it today, but that our grasp of science may not encompass everything.  Perhaps that's just too many sci-fi movies, but I pretty much assume the speed of light is just a limit for the boring, pre-space-travel civilizations.  That's not evidence either, but it is my operating assumption.  My assumption is that FTL travel is possible.

If FTL travel isn't possible, then I would agree with you - alien visitation is very unlikely under that scenario.  If FTL travel IS possible, then I think alien visitation is almost assured.  Just think of all those interstellar grad students eager to write dissertations on the crazy antics of pre-space-flight civilizations.

I believe that FTL is impossible...in a four dimensional universe.  But we live in an 11 diemnsional universe, at least according to string theory.

My evidence for this being true includes the FTL communication between entangled matter.  So space-time has something else going on that's hard to wrap our puny 3/4-D minds around.  That's just the fact of the matter.

Entangled photons and atoms communicate with each other instantly, and without regard for the amount of physical space between them:

Most of the time, the world seems — if not precisely orderly — then at least governed by fixed rules. At the macroscale, cause-and-effect rules the behavior of the universe, time always marches forward and objects in the universe have objective, measurable properties.

But zoom in enough, and those common-sense notions seem to evaporate. At the subatomic scale, particles can become entangled, meaning their fates are bizarrely linked.

For instance, if two photons are sent from a laser through a crystal, after they fly off in separate directions, their spin will be linked the moment one of the particles is measured.

Several studies have now confirmed that, no matter how far apart entangled particles are, how fast one particle is measured, or how many times particles are measured, their states become inextricably linked once they are measured.

For nearly a century, physicists have tried to understand what this means about the universe. The dominant interpretation was that entangled particles have no fixed position or orientation until they are measured. Instead, both particles travel as the sum of the probability of all their potential positions, and both only "choose" one state at the moment of measurement.

(Source)

So perhaps some culutre in the universe has figured out how to travel as the sum of all probabilities and only "become known" at the time and poisition of their choosing?

Who knows?  

All I know is that FTL is not only possible, but repeatedly measured and demonstrated literally hundreds if not thousands of times in different experiments.

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phusg
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Posts: 33
re: comments
davefairtex wrote:

I'm in the unusual position of having someone tell me I'm too much of a conspiracy theorist about a gold smash.  Its kind of fun.  What would Jim say if he could see it?  Presumably I'm just doing this to build my credibility amongst the goldbugs.  :)

Haha, that's why I was interested to hear more on your reasoning for temporarily putting on the a certain type of metal hat :-)

Thanks for your further insights.

I'm just still wondering why they then didn't hit GDX and GDXJ as well to really turn the sentiment? I can't imagine those are much larger markets than gold and silver themselves?

Silver did also stay within its pretty tight 60 day trading range, so I guess that's some evidence for this not being so out of the ordinary. Gold I don't follow as much but that does look more unusual, even with very limited TA abilities. But then the central bank actions and statements were pretty unusual historically as well.

davefairtex wrote:

And its only about Friday.

Not sure how you mean this exactly, but isn't it possible that certain legit market players take a little while to digest central bank announcements and that there's a lag before they make their move? That the commodity investors reacted quickest this time and that the monetary investors took a bit more time?

davefairtex wrote:

As for UFOs - I'm of the thought that the speed of light may well be a limit to travel as we know it today, but that our grasp of science may not encompass everything.  Perhaps that's just too many sci-fi movies, but I pretty much assume the speed of light is just a limit for the boring, pre-space-travel civilizations.  That's not evidence either, but it is my operating assumption.  My assumption is that FTL travel is possible.

If FTL travel isn't possible, then I would agree with you - alien visitation is very unlikely under that scenario.  If FTL travel IS possible, then I think alien visitation is almost assured.  Just think of all those interstellar grad students eager to write dissertations on the crazy antics of pre-space-flight civilizations.

Well FTL travel is actually possible according to the well tested theory, just not crossing the light speed barrier without having infinite energy at your disposal. So it seems a pretty hard limit. And any civilisation advanced enough to beat that, would certainly not forget to turn their lights off when zipping around our atmosphere.

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sand_puppy
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Posts: 1884
Trump: Creation of US Space Force as 6th Branch of Armed Forces

In a timely announcement today (timely in regards to this discussion thread)

During a press conference Monday, Donald Trump announced that, as he hinted previously, he's ordering the Pentagon to "immediately" establish a "space force" as an independent service branch. 

Trump said "we must have American dominance in space. Very importantly, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the Sixth Branch of the Armed Forces."

Everyone may now watch Elysium again.

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Michael_Rudmin
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Posts: 830
On 3D, 11D, 4D

I kindof thought that the FTL experiments cheated; because they consisted of sending out a meter-long photon, defining its position to be the middle of the meter, cutting off the back end, then defining its position to be the middle of the half meter, and then concluding that the photon's defined position went FTL.

But that's handwaving, not FTL, and it doesn't result in the ability to send information back in time, which FTL would bring about.

Here's my understanding of the 11D, 3D, and 4D: The 11 dimensions include such quantum characteristics as spin, charge, and so on... they are "rolled up"; they also include three x dimensions and a time dimension... which is inaccurate.

In fact, my understanding is that there are inherently 2 time dimensions and 2 space dimensions, but because of the cross product that is so ubiquitous in physics, that comes to 3 time dimensions and 3 space dimensions. But none of the physics works with anything except 4 dimensions. It 's like trying to solve X equations, Y
unknowns, where X is not equal to Y. So that brings us back down to either 3 space - 1 time, or 3 time - one space.

Now, all the physics must be satisfied for each individual particle, and the particles are mostly ruled by the charge force, which then depends on space, which measures 1 space dimension: distance from electron to nucleus. So these particles experience 3T1X. However, for macroscopic collections of objects, all the physics also must be satisfied, and the geometry of that is heavily 3 dimensional in space, so those must follow 3X1T. At the boundary between these, everything *also* must be satisfied, which is why we have quantum units of everything. Quite simply, if they are not satisfied, then
the particle does not interact with the macroscopic. So that also adds a quantum unit of fuzziness to time.

Well, with the macroscoping being 3X1T, then all the time must flow together, unless you can finagle that certain eddy, which loops time back for everything inside it, and then reconnect with the old. How you would do that, I have no idea. Doesn't mean that's impossible, but its technology is far and away more than I can imagine. But the second law of thermo is pretty solid for us, that you can't even send useful information back in time that way.

Take away the second law of thermo, and our entire biology (as well as our entire energy economy) fails.

Well, FTL also is a violation of the 2nd law. Time, if you will, can be viewed as a measure of which situation has more total entropy in the universe. Go back in time, you go back to lesser entropy... which violates the second law. Travel FTL, and you may as well be going back in time, because at that point you can send a message back in
time... and again the 2nd law prohibits that.

How solid is the 2nd law? Well, I see the same equations for 2nd law and heat engines (carnot efficiency) pop up in the limits of how well you can compress data; or in the limits of how efficiently you can make an NP-hard problem. And those are mathematical limits, not practical,
engineering limits. So I kindof suspect that the 2nd law is actually a mathematical limit.

I guess that if you can control the values of i, -1, e, and pi at will, then I might consider the possibility that you can violate the 2nd law of thermo.

So I don't really think any aliens have FTL. But I think Chris does actually have a pretty good handle on physics, at least as good as mine.

Anyhow, that's my take on it all.

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davefairtex
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Posts: 5408
gold:CRB

phusg-

Not sure how you mean this exactly, but isn't it possible that certain legit market players take a little while to digest central bank announcements and that there's a lag before they make their move? That the commodity investors reacted quickest this time and that the monetary investors took a bit more time?

The stuff I follow more or less tipped over at 8:20 am on Friday.  That was gold, platinum, copper, (roughly) silver and palladium, with crude following at 9:30 or so.  Gold's descent was pretty dramatic.  Gold didn't react later than the others - it just reacted harder than usual.  It just doesn't feel to me like a normal gold reaction to a commodity sell-off.  It was way too strong for that.

And the reaction came long after the ECB's announcement yesterday.

I wish I could quantify what my sense is telling me.  That way I could create an indicator for it.

Here.  $GOLD:$CRB.  Friday's big old red candle came out of nowhere.  And it was counter-trend.   Most of the other days line up nicely with the trends.  This is what made me suspicious.

 

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sand_puppy
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Posts: 1884
Impact of what we WANT to be true

I do think that phusg raises a noteworthy point:  When we WANT something to be true we are willing and even overly eager to embrace supporting evidence.

And I would very much like to live in a universe with many peoples and cultures, and lots of interesting travel opportunities.

What I want to be true colors my personal thinking.

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thatchmo
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Posts: 456
Hmmm.  Where's Professor

Hmmm.  Where's Professor Irwin Corey when we need him?  Aloha, Steve.

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phusg
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Posts: 33
grey Friday

Ok, just to untangle my take on last weeks price moves with my limited time and background in this area...

So we had:

  • more escalating trade war news which was possibly the main cause of commodity sell-off
  • more Fed hawkishness which makes monetary metals holders more likely to sell for dollars
  • more ECB dovishness which reversed some of the flight to monetary metal safety

None of which is to say that there isn't a centrally planned financial repression of monetary metals component in there exaggerating the downturn, but with the above events I don't see a particular need for it last week. However if sceptical Dave's sense is saying that, I'm inclined to agree.

So I guess the biggest surprise of the week is the lag and that the main action all happened on Friday. Dave, wouldn't an indicator for that be more worthwhile than predicting the bit more that the financial repression throws on top when it hits? Maybe I'm stating the obvious and thats exactly what you do already with your TA and coding skills. Although it seems so difficult with the markets so sensitive to politics and news.

BTW that Radomski who I've also started following claims to have predicted Fridays action here https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/golden-cannon%E2%80%99s-loaded-will-i... when silver was still at $17.14, although his own site https://www.sunshineprofits.com/about-us/company/przemyslaw-radomski/ shows him publishing at 9:23 a.m. when things had started sliding. Although to be fair he has been calling precious metals to start sliding for a while now, which of course also means you're bound to be right at some point.

Arggggh, really difficult to know who to believe and get a handle on where things are headed. Looking to jump in long silver (miners) but holding off as I think Radomski and Jim Rogers may be right and there may be another leg down in store for us. I'm also held back by the thought that financial repression means silver and gold may never even be allowed to reach the 2010-2011 levels.

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phusg
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Posts: 33
One more thing on Southern Europeans

Pfff, not sure why Draghi sees the need to talk the euro down even more after last week, I guess it had crept up beyond where he wants it...

davefairtex wrote:

Local politicians will see they can become Prime Minister if they break with Brussels and are tough on migration – Salvini is one, Seehofer is another.

Nice, very true.

davefairtex wrote:

And the economic stagnation that the structure of the Euro enforces on Southern Europe just turns the heat up even further.

Don't agree with you on this phrasing, Southern Europe was economically even more stagnant before the Euro came along, which is why many Southern Europeans, when push comes to shove, do whatever it takes to actually stay in the Euro. Or maybe they do because they hope that the Eurozone will turn into a debt union.

I guess you mean that they now can't devalue their currency and run up deficits, but I doubt that that actually helps their economy in any medium to long term.

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DennisC
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Posts: 309
He's Right Here

...only in spirit now (RIP).  Thanks for that trip down the old memory hole.

Protocol takes precedence over procedure.

Contrary to the ruling mythology, it was Professor Irwin Corey, not Al Capone who famously said, “You can get further with a kind word and a gun than you can with just a kind word.”

http://chiseler.org/post/157020898746/protocol-takes-precedence-over-pro...

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Mohammed Mast
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 17 2017
Posts: 170
Dunwalke

Few if any have CAF's breadrh of experience.  As for space she is spot on. The proof is in the fact that none ofthis would be possible w/o  the use of satellites .  

The following is a little long but well worth the read.

https://dillonreadandco.com/

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sand_puppy
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 13 2011
Posts: 1884
CAFs story of insider's web and narco-dollar laundering

After Mohamed Mast's last post I re-read this classic story by Catherine Austin Fitts (Dillon Reed & Co., Inc. and the Aristocracy of Stock Profits)  who tells of her decades navigating the web of crony insiders that includes narco-trafficing and the interface between organized crime and the legitimate banking world, intelligence agencies, congress and the vast funds and power of the US government.  The story starts during the time she worked in the Wall Street investment bank Dillon Reed & Co.

It is really quite a story.  Legal and financial structure are built for the benefit of the insider network using the legal and financial systems with criminal intent.

Most fascinating to me was the convergence of the triad:  1) drug-smuggling, 2) the war on drugs and 3) the for-profit prison industry filled by the poor people caught by 1) and 2).  Each step of the triad feeds the coffers of the the rich and powerful.

Those who know Michael Ruppert's Crossing the Rubicon will recognize the story of cocaine imports into South Central LA and through Mena, Arkansas.  Gary Webb's, "Dark Alliance" and Barry Seal's story converge here.

Most significant is the documentatin of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the DEA and the CIA.  In this memorandum, the DEA agrees to allow the CIA and its agents and contractors smuggle drugs into the US without interdiction.  Some estimate that the narcotic smuggling business commands as many dollars as the global oil business.  Big banks would be foolish to not partake in this stream of wealth.

Even the Queen of England is in the network.

Dillon Reed & Co., Inc. and the Aristocracy of Stock Profits

Pour a glass of wine and settle in for a tour-de-force.  :-)

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