PM Daily Market Commentary - 6/12/2018

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Wed, Jun 13, 2018 - 1:21am

Gold fell -4.90 [-0.38%] to 1299.60 on moderate volume, while silver fell -0.07 [-0.41%] on moderate volume also. The buck rose +0.26%, which accounts for a good-sized chunk of the fall in PM.

FOMC started its meeting today, but it was overshadowed by the Trump-KJU summit in Singapore. From “little rocket man” to “the man loves his country” in 9 months.

Gold generally moved lower today, with a big spike down at 8:20 am that was eventually bought, but apart from that bounce, gold looked relatively weak. Candle print was a neutral-looking high wave, and gold forecaster plunged -0.27 to -0.22, which is a sell signal for gold. There has been a lot of chop in the last few weeks – forecaster hasn't been too helpful since there really hasn't been a trend. Still, gold is now in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes, and it is now below the 9 MA.

That said - it is my observation that gold tends to drop going into FOMC meetings.  We may be seeing that play out.

COMEX GC open interest rose 3,083 contracts.

Rate rise chances (June 2018) remains at 96%.

Silver more or less tracked gold, bottoming out around 8:20 am, bouncing back and recovering all of its losses, only to fade into the close. Print was a neutral spinning top, and forecaster jumped +0.23 to +0.44. For some reason, today's dip was positive for the forecaster.

COMEX SI open interest fell by 2,232 contracts today.

The gold/silver ratio rose +0.03 to 76.97. That's neutral.

Miners moved lower, with GDX off -0.27% on very light volume, while GDXJ dropped -0.51% on moderately heavy volume. XAU actually moved higher (+0.23%) but the forecaster fell -0.05 to +0.20. That's still an uptrend, but not a very strong one.

The GDXJ:GDX ratio moved up, and so did the GDX:$GOLD ratio. That's bullish.

Platinum fell -0.52%, palladium dropped -0.04%, while copper moved down -0.18%. If platinum is any sort of tell for the rest of PM, it looks as though it may just tip over and re-test the 880 lows. Palladium and especially copper still look fairly strong.

The dollar rallied +0.24 [+0.26%] to 93.43. That was a 4-candle swing low for the buck, and the forecaster jumped +0.50 to +0.20, which is a buy signal for DX. The buck is now back above its 9 MA. Weekly and monthly remain in uptrends, although both timeframes show that the upside momentum is slowing.

Crude edged down -0.08 [-0.12%] to 65.95. Crude tried to rally today but failed, making a new high to 66.70 before losing all its gains and then some by end of day. While the doji candle looked neutral, the forecaster wasn't happy, dropping -0.16 to -0.05, which is a sell signal for crude. The API report looked bearish (crude: -0.7m, gasoline: +2.3m, distillates: +2.1m), and that report took crude down about 25 cents when it came out at 4:30 pm. Other possibly-bearish influences were reports that Russia, Saudi Arabia,and the US all increased oil production.

SPX rose +4.85 [+0.17%] to 2786.85. That's a new high for SPX, and the spinning top is a bullish continuation, but SPX forecaster fell -0.18 to +0.46. That's still an uptrend, but one that is slowing somewhat. Utilities led the market higher (XLU:+1.15%) while energy did worst (XLE:-0.76%). It was a mixed sector map today.

VIX fell -0.01 to 12.34.

TLT rose +0.03%, essentially going nowhere. TY actually fell, losing -0.06%. The 10-year yield was unchanged at 2.96%. TY remains in a downtrend in both daily and weekly timeframes, but the monthly is right on the edge – right at neutral.

JNK rose +0.11%; that's 6 days up of the last 7 sessions. JNK is slowly moving higher. Very slowly.

CRB rose +0.38%; only 2 of 5 sectors rose, led by agriculture (+2.30%). As it has for a while now, CRB remains below the 50 MA, but in a longer term uptrend.

Not much happened today – the markets were relatively quiet. Perhaps the most interesting market-moving news was the increase in crude production from Russia and Saudi Arabia.

As I mentioned, FOMC announcement is tomorrow at 2pm, with a press conference at 2:30. The Fed will almost certainly raise rates another 25 bp, but the focus will be on how many more increases we can expect going forward.

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