PM Daily Market Commentary - 5/22/2018

By davefairtex on Wed, May 23, 2018 - 2:09am

Gold moved down -1.50 [-0.12%] to 1290.50 on heavy volume, while silver rose +0.02 [+0.15%] to 16.55 on moderately heavy volume. The buck moved lower, losing -0.08%; it was not a very big move. Yesterday's bearish candle has yet to be confirmed.

Gold more or less chopped sideways today; it followed the path of the Euro. Candle print was a neutral-looking spinning top. Forecaster rose +0.06 to +0.06...that's a buy signal for gold.

COMEX GC open interest fell -2,184 contracts.

Rate rise chances (June 2018) remains at 95%.

Silver tried rallying, rising to 16.70 but then falling back, barely closing in the green. Candle print was neutral, and forecaster rose +0.15 to +0.07, which is a buy signal for silver. Silver did manage to close above the 50 MA, which is also a good sign.

COMEX SI open interest fell by -1,594 contracts today.

The gold/silver ratio fell by -0.21 to 77.95. That's bullish.

Miners fell today, with GDX down -0.90% on moderate volume, while GDXJ dropped -1.09% on moderate volume also. Both miner ETFs printed bearish engulfing candles, which had a 31-40% chance of marking the top. XAU forecaster moved up +0.01 to +0.02. This doesn't look so bullish to me.

The GDXJ:GDX ratio rose, but the GDX:$GOLD ratio fell. That's bearish.

Platinum rose +0.70%, palladium fell -0.16%, while copper rose +0.69%. In spite of palladium's drop, all 3 other metals are in uptrends.

The dollar moved down -0.07 [-0.08%]; it actually fell substantially more, but then bounced back. Candle print was a high wave, which was neutral. Forecaster moved down -0.02 to +0.24; that's still an uptrend for the buck.

Crude fell -0.52 [-0.72%] to 72.13. Oil tried rallying, hitting a new high of 72.90 at around 11 am, but then started dropping in the afternoon, and sold off for the remainder of the day. The API report was fairly bearish: crude +1.3m, gasoline +0.98m, distillates -1.3m. Crude forecaster moved up +0.11 to +0.27. 

SPX fell -8.57 [-0.31%] to 2724.44. SPX printed a bearish engulfing candle (31% reversal). SPX forecaster fell -0.36 to -0.04, which is a sell signal for SPX. Energy led the market lower (XLE:-1.33%) while financials did best (XLF:-0.67%). Might this be the top for energy?

VIX rose +0.14 to 13.22.

TLT fell -0.15%, moving gently lower. TY was flat, but TY forecaster jumped +0.37 to +0.02 which is a buy signal. Is this really the low for bonds?

JNK moved up +0.06%; up +0.11%; JNK forecaster moved up +0.14 to +0.11, which is a buy signal for JNK.

CRB rose +0.25%, making another high. 4 of 5 sectors moved higher, led by agriculture (+0.87%).

While the metals looked all right today, the only event of note today was the sell signal in SPX.

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1 Comment

New_Life's picture
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 420
still testing the 1295 resistance...
New_Life wrote:


remember a few days ago I said we might get a mini bounce?  the bullish divergence was evident to me on 3hr and now reflected on higher timeframes

Question is, will this be a reversal or fall away with a reducing buy volume?

Also I have 1295 area (green horizontal line) as support turned resistance, so could pause here...

Gold still knocking on the 1295 ceiling trying to break through... its 3hr RSI remains >50%, however its On Balance Volume trend is now negative and suggests it will fall away unless a strong buy surge comes from somewhere...  Will keep an eye on it over the next day or so.


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