Will Blockchain Fail? Is this just one big joke of an experiment? Which segment of the ecosystem are you talking?

mrees999
By mrees999 on Sun, Apr 15, 2018 - 1:05pm

Greetings Blockchain students. I'm going to introduce an eight-part series to give you insight into the world of blockchains. Sadly, I still see many people are still suspicious of the new asset class mainly because they have too little understanding.  This emerging asset class is tough to followas we are still in the beginning stages of what some people call the "Cambrian explosion" of new technologies creating entirely new family trees of technology branches. As we cover these new family trees, keep in mind almost all of this was science fiction three years ago. Even when I started this new group on Peak Prosperity - most of what I cover here was created AFTER this blockchain section began.

These ideas and concepts are just some of the things I go over with my students in our special HODLER community.  You might be surprised at how many of our wonderful Peak Prosperity members are also firmly planted in our humble blockchain community as well. The two fit hand-in-hand. Rather than write a book, we keep an active and live community. This space moves so quickly that any book that is written is out of date in six months and is in danger of being completely irrelevant in only a year's time. 

Let's go over some of the different segments in the blockchain eco-space. Yes, there is an entirely new ecosystem emerging.  It's not just an asset class, and we are WAY beyond cryptocurrencies. I've broken down a great infographic - that although incomplete and very high level, is an excellent place to start a discussion. 

The first category is the actual "currency" use case.

There are several currencies and more being built\forked all the time. They come in three distinct use cases. Some digital tokens that you might have thought were currencies like Ether - actually aren't currencies at all. We'll get to that a later date. Bitcoin is the most significant digital cryptocurrency most people have heard. But the emergence of specialty payment protocols is now starting to get traction.These will make it faster, cheaper and easier to do cross-border payments and some can have smart contracts do work that humans do now. It will cut costs and will change banking forever. New technology will be released in the next couple of months that will boost transactions per second into the thousands, later this year more technologies that are on test networks might boost this number into the millions of transactions per second. Orders of magnitude more than all credit card and banking transactions put together. Some of these newer layer tokens have working companies lined up to use them out of the gate.

Then we have privacy coins. These offer the common man a bazooka against government-issued fiat. These have different levels of traceability and are still being developed. They are largely untraceable - for good or bad, depending on where in the world you live, and how much you trust your government with its monetary policy.  Whether governments like it or not, they are here to stay - but they might be driven more underground as governments begin issuing their central bank digital tokens by fiat. It's within the realm of possibility that some totalitarian governments will try to outlaw the tokens - likely on par with the level of corruption. This movement will likely begin in banana republics on tin-pot dictators before working its way up the chain. Always starting at the margins of society as the 1% like the old system the way it is.

It would be a mistake to consider that if these are to be made illegal or outlawed that they will go away. Forbidden fruit taste that much sweeter and the black market thrives under such pressures.  They can't stop these units as each unit contains its own DNA of the entire network - there is no way to take out the DNA of every token in existence on a peer-to-peer world network.

Some people mistakenly argue that they aren't 'real currencies' because they believe one must have to trade them back for dollars or another fiat to do commerce.  That is not true. Many people accept these as payment in full. I've personally purchased good and services, including legal fees, many times using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.  These tokens currently don't necessarily act great as a reliable short-term store of value, but history has proven they are the BEST form of money for saving if your timescale is a year or more. Also, if one is making payments in other parts of the world, it can enable transactions that might have taken days in the current system to a few minutes if you are paying somebody that can't \ won't take credit cards.  

Unlike all other fiat currencies, the coins increase in value (when used as a long-term savings instrument), and studies have proven the younger generations trust these FAR more than governments. As our demographics shift from the older generations that are usually technology weary, and suspicious of new ideas \ paradigm shifts, the old ways will give way to the new ways in the next couple of decades as the younger generations take charge.

Coping with this huge paradigm shift will likely be a constant struggle with our older folks and those of us that still put all their hopes and dreams into the precious metals as we've been taught for years.  Although the key insight of money off the grid and not issued by fiat - gives the early leap of understanding the correct framework for these folks helps cross that chasm into the world of crypto. These young kids are getting it quickly after seeing what their parent when through with the last banking crisis. They sense something is going to change. There are hard-numbers for this that I will get into on a later post.

 

There are still seven major categories to go. Many of those are broken down into several sub-categories. Please give comments or suggestions as we go through this. I like having feedback. And hey - free education for you! Just a little plug, you can learn more at blockchainlead.com

That's it for now. - Thanks for reading.

Mark Rees

 

 

67 Comments

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Balanced Education

Hi Mark,

Appreciate you taking the trouble to do this series, many will be looking forward to a deep dive to get details and hear a balanced view, weighing up all sides and perspectives.

Even more looking forward for any assertions to be evidenced based, let's all pick apart the supporting data to see how robust any viewpoint is.

Hoping Chris and Dave can keep probing and offer their terrific insights.

To start us off here's a couple of points that I'd be grateful for clarification on..

One item I'd pick up on is the concept of Digital Assets being off-grid like PM's..

"Coping with this huge paradigm shift will likely be a constant struggle with our older folks and those of us that still put all their hopes and dreams into the precious metals as we've been taught for years. Although the key insight of money off the grid and not issued by fiat - gives the early leap of understanding the correct framework for these folks helps cross that chasm into the world of crypto."

Maybe I'm misquoting, but the phrase "Off the Grid" struck me as slightly inappropriate, as all of the cryptocurrencies require a good sustainable source of electricity to mine or transact, just like any credit card payment. The difference with PM's you physically hold in your hand is all the energy required to produce and transact has already been used.

Also given that there's been less demand for your blockchain lead courses recently, is that just from "Older folks"?

When you get a full class, what's the demographic split like, & what % of their investable income/savings are the millennials risking on these new unpredictable and extremely volatile assets?

It's hard to say they are a good store of value when it changes so much on a weekly basis.

Just imagine a millennial accepting BTC for selling a car or a house in mid December...

Do you ever see the value stabilising to a steady sustainable increase?

How concerned are you with the level of manipulation, that in itself relates to my earlier off the grid comment, if big institutions are involved in futures and manipulation their value is still very connected to the old system and ripe for fraudulent activities associated with the grid.

What do think the NYC Attorney General will do regarding the crypto exchanges he is now investigating?
http://uk.businessinsider.com/new-york-attorney-general-launches-an-inve...

And again thanks for your open approach in accepting friendly challenges and requests for evidence, we all learn much more operating in this way.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Balanced eduction answers

Hi New Life, thanks for the questions. It’s a great opportunity to clarify and strengthen my positions.

 

Being off-grid clarification.  Some people may have deduced that my use of the word off-grid may have been used as is common with other uses as if being ‘off – grid’ for electricity or internet. They way I intended to use it was to be off the banking grid. As crypto are not issued or controlled by bank, the ‘banking grid’ runs outside the world of crypto.

 

The advantage of the Peak Prosperity group is that they generally know how money operates when outside of the banking system as it relates to precious metals. Hopefully you can see that connection and will move it out of your ‘inappropriate’ column.

 

Demographics of students.  As I’m retooling the class to make it two or more days as per some suggestions, we’ve held off on holding classes until we have the new format down – but while we are at it, we have found our audience to skew to the ‘over 40 Crowd” My own ballbark number would have 70% of student over 40 (But we don’t ask ages in our enrollment). I would also surmise that at least 30% are over 60.  Compared to stats reported in other sources, the typical crypto person outside of our educational course skews very tightly younger.

 

Here’s a link to a recent study by “Finder” of the typical USA purchaser of cyrypto published just last month: Although the sample size was very small at only 2,000 residence it potentially could shed some light on who is staying out for now

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/how-many-americans-really-own-crypto-skewed-results-of-polls-and-surveys

 

Highlights – 92% of the USA has never purchases crypto. Only 8% have current plans to do so in the future.  Sound like a bubble??

 

I’ve averaged the numbers below as they were answered by men and women separately:

 

About 40% of people think it’s too hard to understand or use.

About 35% think it’s too high risk

40% don’t think it’s needed.

20% think it’s a scam.

 

The millennial generation is 8x more likely to purchase then Baby boomers and over twice as likely to buy than millennials. So it seems my niche is the older crowd and we spend more time making it more simple to understand. But as I mentioned, there is more work to do on that front as repeated exposure is necessary and we allow people to take the course again for a significant discount and more than half choose to do that.

 

We don’t ever ask percentages of investable income or their plans. We encourage to start out very small until they get their ‘sea legs”. We also advise repeatedly that they should never invest any more than they would lose sleep over. Out final advice is to take a long term approach. We are looking 5 to 10 years out. We HODL – and do not trade into and out of positions. This strategy HAS proven to be BY FAR the best longer term store of value in modern history. We’ve done…Very, Very, Very well.

 

If people go against our education and attempt to buy and sell for any purchases (include the car in your silly example) they would be going against everything I teach them.

 

Value will somewhat stabilize as more people get into the market. This includes the massive foundations that are now beginning to invest. That doesn’t mean the price will level out anytime soon, I think this wealth transfer will go on for decades. Many industry experts and advisors are making calls (Tim Draper is one) calling for btc at $250,000 by 2022. He’s been accurate on his previous predication and isn’t accidental a billionaire.

 

Fraud and manipulation are expected as this is still the wild west. Hense all my warning and advice to just Hold On For Dear Life. As the most explosive and promising new technologies it has proven time and time again that you have to be committed to the long term and have a strong stomach-  it isn’t for everybody. The latest announcement means nothing to me. I’ve been around long enough to see hundreds of these coming from people all over the world. Yet the price of btc has still gone from 0- to a high of nearly 20k, and it’s bounced all the way in irrational waves based on the trademark panic and euphoria that defines the exciting asset class.

 

For more views on the demographics and shifting attitudes as the new millennials and Gen Y come of age, see Wall Street advisor and blockchain researcher, Tim Lee’s fascinating speech as he has worked the numbers to understand the demographic changes coming up and their title-wave of expected use of these new technologies. Our exclusive HODLER community that has partly been the topic of the last three -part weekly broadcast to know what it means for us and to make plans now to profit from it.

 

 

In short, we aint seen nothing yet.  Thanks for the dialog.

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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BTC

I have been in BTC going on 8 years. What got my attention was not the opportunity to make millions . What got my attention was the chance for humanity to free itself from the bondage of fiat currencies and the central banks. 

BTC was conceived to do just that in the wake of the meltdown of 08 and the subsequent mega theft (bailouts). Unfortunately it has now become nothing more than an investment vehicle for speculators who could care less for its ethos. There are now futures markets, hedge funds, etc.etc.etc. I remember land in Costa Rica being sold for BTC.I remember a guy who sold his Porsche for BTC.It was actually being used as a currency. It was used by anarcho - capitalists. It appears they now comprise a tiny percentage of the ecosystem.

One would have thought that here of all places (where there are daily rants about the central banks) that many would be championing crypto as a path to freedom. Surprising and disappointing that it is reduced to a commodity explained in charts.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Crypto not to be used for big transactions?

Hi MM,

Yep I agree with you about it now being mainly a speculation vehicle, However Mark and many others are okay with that though. I doubt that BTC is hardly off grid whilst still massively influenced (manipulated) by the old traditional banking institutions, wash trading and Tether.

I feel BTC has been reduced to charts because of the way the public and institutions have adopted it. It's naive to ignore the basic human desire to build a comfortable secure future. Many folks from PP in Marks group are there for the potential to exchange future crypto profits for a more resilient life for themselves and take care of their families, myself included. This is something I am certainly not ashamed of.

Interesting to see the huge demand for BTC in Venezuela this week. Clearly for those poor souls it offers hope of freedom that you mentioned.

I too would of expected that it would make sense to use a Crypto Currency for transacting major assets and smaller ones for that matter, otherwise why bother with the lightening network?

Mark, thanks for the very detailed reply, I liked the demographic article and Tom Lee's sober & seemingly calm considered opinions.

Grateful if yan you help me out with my "Silly Example", so which Crypto Currency should people use to transact with to buy a car or a house?

ps you may want to refrain from using such dismissive terms, it rarely leads to constructive engagement and it probably does not appeal to your target audience that I assume you hope are reading this and you would like to sign up to take your courses.

You can bet there's a ton of more "Silly Examples" and "Silly Questions" out there for new folks at your blockchain classes,, I suggest it would be wiser to be kinder to them.

I like to remind myself that regardless of experience, none of us are total experts here, we all make mistakes in our judgements and I hope we are all still seeking out new data as this space evolves and keep learning from each other.

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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Precisely

Thanks for making my point. Yes the opportunity to make oodles of money is very seductive. Yes you will be able to finance your resilience. Yes you will still be part of the system that keeps you a serf.

In answer to the original topic "will blockchain fail"?  No it will not fail. As a matter of fact as far as the current system is concerned it is the most revolutionary technology since the internet. It will touch every aspect of everyone's lives. Unfortunately it will be controlled by Wall Street, the too big to fail banks, central banks and governments. 

The blockchain will continue but Satoshi's dream is an epic failure. The cypherpunks  have been pushed out and BTC is now nothing more than another asset class in the machine no differnt than gold , wheat an o0ptions. 

I am reminded of the funeral in San Francisco in I think 67 when the people buried "hippie " and with it the counterculture of the 60"s. The lesson to be learned is th elite don't have to regulate cryptos out of existence they just have to co-opt it. That is apparently a fait accompli. Enjoy  your wealth.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Dont give up. The dream of a crypto revolution is not dead.

It is easy to be swayed into thinking that the crypto revolution is dead. A lot of the cult-like anarchist of the cypherpunk generation have gotten wealthy which tends to mellow out their Anti-system nature and perhaps they've now succumbed to the seductive nature of wealth.

Many people climb the ladder of success and then wish to push it over. Many dictatorships begin with honest intentions before going corrupt. But we are perhaps judging the effort through relatively successful western world point of view.

A twitter post a few months ago by Vitalik, lead of the ethereum project is a man of principal when he reminded the crypto world they haven't accomplished what the movement set out to do The crypto world had just first crossed a half trillion market cap when he wondered out loud how many Venezuelan have been rescued from their failed government. The promise of cryptos hadn't yet saved them.

He went on with several more reminders for the community to put their heads down and keep working despite the new wave of millionaires in the crypto circles. We should gravitate to that kind of leadership. Looking at the wall street and traders point of view soon turns shallow. Some might get rich but then what is next? It depends on a person's character. Is that glass half empty or full. The world is mostly corrupt. Blockchains will take decades to sweep up the corruption and it will come in fits and starts. It will begin at edges from those marginalized and work its way in.

It may be tough right now to look at the latest wave of acceptance and barriers broken but this latest round only have greed and dollars in mind. This is necessary in the evolution as it garners attention and puts it on the radar as a tool for those with the correct character to become true leaders. Wielded correctly by these people in eventuality will be powerful enough to dethrone the status quo. Don't be too quick to judge this burgeoning infant of the paradigm change. The world still won't know what hit them when the sea of change happens.

Think decades rather than months and years. This is not a get rich quick scheme to those with higher aspirations.

Time2help's picture
Time2help
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Cryptocurrency in a word

Hassle.

skipr's picture
skipr
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is gold dead too?

If BTC is dead due to the futures contracts, so is everything else, especially the decentralized ones like gold etc.  The fat cats will not loose their cash cow without a major fight.  Those poor aristocratic bureaucrats need every gimmick they can get their hands on since they have no real talent and would not survive long in the real word of innovation.  It would be like the Apple execs pushing Steve Jobs out in the early 90s.  They desperately brought him back when they almost flushed the company down the toilet.

Maybe everyone should move their cryptos into altcoins with no futures strung around their necks.  Hopefully their correlation with BTC will break and be like it was before last December.  Is centralized Ripple a wolf in sheeps clothing?

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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trends

Bitcoin isn't dead, certainly, but (aside from price) it is going through a serious dormant period right now.  Just look at google trends.  Its not pretty.

Interestingly, price has decoupled from trends.

ETH at least appears to have double-bottomed.  The crazy moves on the intraday charts has me more or less giving up on those timeframes and instead I'm pulling back to the daily charts, where sanity still appears to exist.

Something smells bad from a trading perspective.  Price just shouldn't jump around this way.  Maybe its just lots of big sharks having fun with light volumes with no regulators around.  Wild west, indeed.

Just my two cents.

I just looked at a longer term daily chart.  Looks like the recent "$1000-rally for no reason" just rescued bitcoin from a re-test of the recent lows - by breaking price above that downtrend line.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  If the move doesn't drag in buyers, but instead just brings out sellers, it will have been a lot of money spent for nothing.

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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Exactly
davefairtex wrote:

Bitcoin isn't dead, certainly, but (aside from price) it is going through a serious dormant period right now.  Just look at google trends.  Its not pretty.

Interestingly, price has decoupled from trends.

ETH at least appears to have double-bottomed.  The crazy moves on the intraday charts has me more or less giving up on those timeframes and instead I'm pulling back to the daily charts, where sanity still appears to exist.

Something smells bad from a trading perspective.  Price just shouldn't jump around this way.  Maybe its just lots of big sharks having fun with light volumes with no regulators around.  Wild west, indeed.

Just my two cents.

I just looked at a longer term daily chart.  Looks like the recent "$1000-rally for no reason" just rescued bitcoin from a re-test of the recent lows - by breaking price above that downtrend line.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  If the move doesn't drag in buyers, but instead just brings out sellers, it will have been a lot of money spent for nothing.

It's like equating God with religion. Sigh. 

 

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Noise

One word.  This is what my grandparents said about rock and roll.  "It's just a bunch of NOISE".  Ha ha, miss them.  It wasn't "noise" to us.  They didn't get it and didn't want to. We all come and go, one generations hassle is another generation's wealth. 

 

Perspective.

 

How will they remember you?

Will they?

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Raw. Energentic ... Capitalism

Money is flowing to the paths of least resistance.  As regulations come in some corners, the energy of capitalism will flow to where there is less regulation. States will pursue statism, and free markets will flow to where the ingenuity (and fraud, hucksters, and the energy of the wild west) goes. 

It will be like trying to squeeze and hand full of sand.  They will keep grasping, and innovation will pop up in places they can't control. Rock meet hard place. Free market - meet capital control attempts. This is a fine Petri dish to watch the power of capitalism versus attempts at socialism by state actors to ring it back in.

Which side are you on?

 

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Silly Example or Silly Question?
New_Life wrote:

I too would of expected that it would make sense to use a Crypto Currency for transacting major assets and smaller ones for that matter, otherwise why bother with the lightening network?

Grateful if yan you help me out with my "Silly Example", so which Crypto Currency should people use to transact with to buy a car or a house?

Mark interested in your response to my post, especially my "Silly" example/question.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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assessing an investment

Well I don't know about you, but I sure want to be hip.  And cool.  And remembered.  And I really want to be "on the right side" - whatever that means.  The most important criteria I use when assessing an investment: when I buy this thing, how will other people perceive me?

I'm going to go right off to my bank and transfer all my free cash to coinbase and buy me some bitcoin!  (*)

(*) most definitely NOT financial advice

Mark: if you want to get my money, emotional appeals work less well.  In fact, they make me feel as though I'm being conned.  Try appealing to my brain instead.  Show me utility.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Evidence creates a more valuable discussion

Yep, the ethos of PP I've learnt from Chris and Adam is "show me the data". So when we are making speculative thoughts/hopes/beliefs I have observed we also tend to try acknowledge them or call others out for supporting data.

I feel this is inline with my hopes for the quality of dialogue here as I hinted in my first reply. I personally know many others prefer this style as it allows for constructive discussion.

Dave regarding the "$1000-rally for no reason", there's evidence on the daily RSI (14,close) of a 11day long bullish reversal, long v shorts ratio were at a 6 months low (more shorts than longs)

Also I believe (no hard evidence) that the price could of been manipulated down and bounced a few times off 6.6k as per the Wyckoff method,

I mention the idea here..
https://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/215332#comment-215332

Compare the shape of the classic Wyckoff accumulation method with BTC price action for the last month, just before the pump I'm guessing a ton of prepped shorts cancelled at the crucial moment, then possibly wash trading pumping it up, liquidating retail short positions, forcing others to auto cancel and then many people adding longs, just like April 1st

We are currently just underneath the 100MA but also near the top of a rising wedge, also RSI showing signs of a bearish reversal, so its possible another big move could occur early this week, I'm neutral to which way...

I really hope Mark clarifies the comment on not using Crypto for purchases.

"If people go against our education and attempt to buy and sell for any purchases (include the car in your silly example) they would be going against everything I teach them."

This seems to totally contridict some earlier statements and some group discussions I've seen previously. If cryptocurrency isn't intended for transacting and making purchases, then what is it for?

Again I personally believe, a kinder and less dismissive tone coupled with a calm evidence based approach will win your audience's hearts and their minds.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Wrong side

Ha ha, Dave, we know if you would have taken my advice over the years you would be a wealthy man now.  You dismiss and history is not on your side. We can go compare notes all the way back if you like. There's evidence we all can see.  Although I'm sure you would like to forget.  How many of your investments returned 100,000 %?  Look back at my posts on PP over the last five years and compare.  Then compare to any other guest, blogger, whatever.  See if you can find somebody that tops me.  Evidence-based.

 

How are your triangles doing for you? Keep up the good fight, I'm sure your years of charting the silver and gold markets every day provides some kind of meaning to your life. I don't want to bring any more pain to you - but let's look at the encapsulated meaning all the charting every day has done for this audience.

Silver in 2013 about $20 per ounce, now about $16. Down 20% over five years. Including inflation, down 33%

Gold in 2013 about $1400 now about $1330 - down about 5% after five years, but with inflation, down about 13%. 

So for all the work you've put into this daily effort, you've been rewarded with a steady embarrassing loss. But it will turn back any day now. I'm sure you've tweaked your bots to chart smiley faces any.  day.  now.

We can go back and look at each of the tokens I've written about a look at the amount of profit\loss they've had since I wrote of them. 10,000%? With those kind of numbers, what is there to talk about.  I've got nothing to prove. Break out the tissues.

Oh, I hope that didn't sound dismissive. We see how emotional New Life gets over that. Silly boy.

 

:-)

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Mark, please answer my question.

I am genuinely seeking clarification on the statement you made, reducing this forum to petty name calling would be a disservice to PP and given your intellect I'm surprised you've chosen that route. Hoping we can all constructively evolve and move forward.

I suspect there's been a misunderstanding, that's why I asked the question seeking the context, I also know others are definitely interested in you clarifying it with a calm and evidenced based approach.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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past performance

Wow, Mark, you are testy today.  All I wanted was for you to sell me on utility rather than emotion, and your response?  You feel the need to wave around your incredibly large male member.  And you clearly want me to acknowledge just how large it is.  So...Mark...this is for you - slightly modified from the original:

Oh Mark, you are so amazing.  Your investment returns are absolutely huge.  Gosh, we're all really impressed down here I can tell you.  Forgive us, Mark, for this dreadful toadying and barefaced flattery.  But you are so rich, and well, just so super.  Fantastic.  Amen."

[skip to 0:46]

Hope that helps.  :)

I'm not sure how I manage to do it, but I have a pretty happy life, in spite of not buying bitcoin at $200.  How do I do this?  Well, I know myself.  If I bought bitcoin at $200, I'm pretty sure I would have sold most of it when it hit $2000.  I wouldn't have been able to resist.  And I wouldn't have bought more than $5000.  So that means a $50k gain.  That's just looking at things realistically.  I know my inner nature pretty well.

[And FYI, you were telling me to buy at $1100, back in 2013.  That's still just a 10x gain, even if I held to the top in 2017.  And I'd have had to live through the 80% drop, and sell right at the highs.]

Regardless - do I let this missed trade eat me up?  Boy if I did that, I'd have jumped off a building years ago.  The number of trades I've missed over the years is just legion.  Bitcoin is just one of them.  And yet - my life still seems to be pretty good.  Better than most, certainly.  There are so many things I appreciate.

Ok, back to bitcoin.  I'd still like you to sell me based on utility.  I just don't trust sales approaches that sum to: "buy this because everyone will think you're really cool."  Not even from you.

As we know, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Humility is a virtue, too.  So they say anyway.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Not sure what you are looking for Mike

 

I genuinely want to answer your questions but can't help but feel you are trying to bait me again. (Most people won't understand our history). The honest truth is there are a lot of important things to spend my time on and many people expect a guide and friend to help make sense of this technology. As you chosen to spend your time devouring hours of wasted time trying to Devine meaning in daily and hourly noise, I've determined they rolling my eyes at more of your continuing egging on is my best approach. I spend the time concentrating on different data sets and have different time frame approaches than you do. I'm sure you and Dave can spend countless hours discerning the crystal ball for your latest ploy. It's pointless to me. As we've spoken 98% of traders lose money in the long run and I can provide dozens if not Hundreds of research papers that attest to it. 

But there are some of the people on this board that devote their life to it, and I don't want to seem like I'm degrading the one thing that might make them complete and have a reason to get up in the morning. They think they are making a difference by spending (Wasting?) hours of their life on a pointless pursuit if the multitude of research is correct. But I wonder if these people can no longer recognize the forest for the trees?  They've looked at Bollinger bands and triangles so long that they no see the cheese sandwich from a charting triangle slope. 

When the 200-day moving average reminds them when it's time to take a shower again (whether they need it or not). then perhaps the chartist life has taken over too much. I've seen this in other professions\religions\ politics. They eat their own dog food for so long that they no longer remember it is dog food. They've become institutionalized in their own minds. Perhaps Dave wouldn't know what to do with himself if he actually went outside and kicked a soccer ball. Would he remember to ride a bike?  You know what they say.... Would he, could he.... continue to function as a 'normal' person?  When I say "Dave", I'm referring to all chartist gypsy palm readers looking for the latest uptrend.  Crypto charting has just got to drive you batty. 

In then... Just when you think you've fined tuned your bot to perfection and predict another wave of a btc downturn, something so easy to explain as a short squeeze for $1000 one-day gain befuddles you?  It's time for a vacation. Slowly put down the mouse...

Mike said something about currency uses - doesn't really make a difference. What was it worth before, what is it worth now. Results matter not use cases.  Evidence of my own suggestions from the day I made the on PP to today. Let's compare your trading results.  Or compare results from any other guest, visitor, advisor, or participant\blogger on PP.

Here are my numbers - Assuming one invested a modest $1,000 into each token the day I mentioned it. Just think about all the coins I didn't suggest on PP.  This was only the start.

Prices were in single units

Date I suggested it  Today's price     
   Price on day I suggested    If purchased $1000 on recommendation day.
3/11/16       4/23/18  Gain 
13-Nov  $      600.0000  $  8,800.00    $   14,666.67 1467%
           
Ether  $        12.9000  $     634.00    $   50,642.64 5064%
Maidsafe  $          0.1000  $         0.37    $     3,700.00 370%
Dash  $          5.1400  $     464.00    $   90,272.37 9027%
Bitshares  $          0.0074  $         0.27    $   35,810.81 3581%
Factom  $          2.2500  $       29.08    $   12,924.44 1292%
           
4/7/17          
Golem  $          0.0790  $         0.63    $     7,974.68 797%
           
4/21/17          
           
Auger  $        11.2900  $       40.13    $     3,554.47 355%
zcash  $        68.7000  $     272.00    $     3,959.24 396%
Game Credits  $          0.8000  $         1.84    $     2,300.00 230%
Firstblood  $          0.2970  $         0.40    $     1,346.80 135%
Iconomi  $          0.4200  $         1.51    $     3,595.24 360%
Singular DTV  $          0.0630  $         0.10    $     1,539.68 154%
RLC  $          0.2980  $         1.49    $     5,000.00 500%
         $                -    
6/16/17        $                -    
PTOY  $          0.1400  $         0.21    $     1,464.29 146%
         $                -    
27-Jul        $                -    
Salt  $          1.5000  $         3.60    $     2,400.00 240%
         $                -    
8/1/17        $                -    
Bitcoin Cash  $          1.6700  $  1,325.00    $     1,325.00 133%
           
Total Invst  $ 19,000.0000      $ 227,809.67 22781%

Examine your trades and numbers - show them.  Compare them.  Can anybody find a guest, investor on PP that did better?

 

Next?

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Here's the statement

Mark, I am honestly not trying to bait you nor have I intended to do so, here's your statement that I was seeking clarification on, again apologies if I have misunderstood the context or intended meaning.

"If people go against our education and attempt to buy and sell for any purchases (include the car in your silly example) they would be going against everything I teach them."

This seems to totally contridict some earlier statements and some group discussions I've seen previously. If cryptocurrency isn't intended for transacting and making purchases, then what is it for?

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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Or, perhaps

...blockchain will fail because the underlying energy required to power the technology will not be there in the near future. Will we power our farm equipment and food delivery systems, air conditioning and heat...or alternative currency systems? 

 

Or because the planet's imminent ecosystem collapse will cause us to realize the importance of the food chain in very real ways. You can't eat a Bitcoin, and I'm uncertain how blockchain currencies will successfully operate in a partial or full collapse scenario. I can tell you that in historical examples of even minor collapse, money is the last thing most people give a hoot about. 

 

Or maybe climate change? Political and social upheaval? Global conflicts over dwindling resources?

 

I admire the zesty fights around the issue of cryptocurrency, but this reminds me of educator conferences where presenters are talking about the glorious future of energy-intensive technological education programs, and I just want to ask the presenters what they know about peak oil, rare-earth metals, or neonicotinoids. What we should be creating are technological solutions to the real problems we are facing. How does blockchain solve anything? Can it be leveraged to create real change, or is it just a way to get rich? I'm honestly asking, because you guys know a lot more about it than I do.

 

Lastly, there are some unusual levels of acrimony and penis waving on this thread. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Did someone spike the punch?

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mrees999
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Snydeman foolishness

Snarky Snydeman:

Energy intensive?  I assume you mean bitcoin - which is one of say 2,000 blockchain? It ties the record using physics in the real world that you cannot fake. What backs bitcoin? The law of thermodynamics. You cannot fake electricity or physics. 

But it appears you wrongfully believe that is how all blockchains use to achieve consensus. What about proof of stake method. Or delegated proof of stake?  Or proof of importance? Or proof of storage? Or HashGraph's (DAG)? I could go on, with plenty more that don't use up wasteful electricity but I'm sure other readers will get the point.  It appears you don't have a clue what you are talking about.  Would you care to give us your opinion on the latest brain surgery procedures?  Being that you likely aren't a student of that either-  your opinions might be as accurate.

Here's one of the Googled results you could have used to spend five minutes of reading before making you unschooled remarks:  https://hackernoon.com/a-hitchhikers-guide-to-consensus-algorithms-d81aae3eb0e3.  

But since you brought up the food chain, I suppose all the development in the food chain systems using a blockchain didn't find their way onto your radar. So here are a few links - I hope this doesn't make you look 'silly' as well - I'm trying to be more sensitive to hurting one's feelings.  Perhaps I'll sign up for one of the governmental sensitivity training once I'm done today?  Investing in cryptos early allowed me to retire 20 years early so I've got extra time. And perhaps those classes will encourage me to quit waving appendages above my head (if only were that well endowed).

How Blockchain Will Change the Food Industry:

http://theconversation.com/how-blockchain-technology-could-transform-the-food-industry-89348

The Blockchain of Food:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/themixingbowl/2017/10/23/the-blockchain-of-food/#403f3317775f

 

How about one article that addresses the three Es at once? This one should be on Chris' radar:

 

Blockchain will make the supply chain, food distribution and energy more efficient:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/themixingbowl/2017/10/23/the-blockchain-of-food/#403f3317775f

You know - this was all found on the first few listings of a Google Search.  Your point need not have been pointless. It was a quick Google search away.  Anybody could have done it. My search terms were "blockchain help food distribution" - It amazes me after this many years how many people still refuse to keep up with technology - and then blissfully make comments that show how far behind and unprepared they are to make constructive comments.  Except for you snarky humor of course.  That was kind of entertaining.

Now if you could make relevant, up to date, insightful snarky comments, that would hit the sweet spot.

 

Time2help's picture
Time2help
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Mark...

Good day to you, be well.

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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Posts: 507
mrees999 wrote:Snarky
mrees999 wrote:

Snarky Snydeman:

I'll own it. I frequently am a snarky one on this site, but I'll take that over acting like you have on this entire thread. You've swung the ad hominem stick like Conan the Barbarian swings battleaxes, and directly at some pretty smart and capable people on the site. Fortunately, I'm not one of them, so fire away at me anytime.

 

mrees999 wrote:

You know - this was all found on the first few listings of a Google Search.  Your point need not have been pointless. It was a quick Google search away.  Anybody could have done it. My search terms were "blockchain help food distribution" - It amazes me after this many years how many people still refuse to keep up with technology - and then blissfully make comments that show how far behind and unprepared they are to make constructive comments.  Except for you snarky humor of course.  That was kind of entertaining.

Now if you could make relevant, up to date, insightful snarky comments, that would hit the sweet spot.

 

Point taken, though I'd add that you assume because I don't agree with your premise that I haven't read these types of articles about blockchain technology - a false premise - and that just randomly taking things off of google and assuming they are a) true, b) technically feasible, or c) scalable and workable at the macro level, is a dubious path to knowledge. I'll further add that all the articles on how blockchain will save food distribution don't address the key Three E's we refer to on this site (even the one you linked), so you'll excuse me if I remain skeptical on the Jesus potential you seem to see. Food distribution can be made far more efficient and cost-effective, true, but how will it address peak energy? Shifting rainfall patterns? Soil exhaustion? Aquifer depletion? Please, enlighten me.

 

I am eternally heartened by the fact that I entertained you, though.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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triggered

I think we triggered Mark somehow.  Maybe it was me.  I used to be able to tease him about things, but he appears to have temporarily misplaced his sense of humor.  Its probably very stressful to have such a large position that moves around so much from day to day.  And he now has all these people paying him - and then expecting to get rich as a result.  No pressure there.

Certainly I've used ETH to transfer money internationally.  That was fun.  Anyone ever make money on an international wire transfer?  You can do it with coins, if you do the math, and you trust your friend in the foreign country.  Is that utility?  Its a side effect of a supply/demand imbalance - possibly due to capital controls & AML regulation.  It sure beats paying a 1% "foreign currency transaction fee" at an ATM, and/or a $50 wire transfer fee plus an exchange rate bid/ask spread.

But ultimately utility does matter.  Just like earnings will eventually matter.  But perhaps not today. 

I'm still wondering what happens to the coins in a market downtrend.  Once the everything-bubble pops, how will the loss of liquidity affect the coins?  We know what it will do to all the other markets: they will drop.  Gold too, until the leverage is wrung out.

The 10-year is up to 2.97%.  If it breaks 3%, we could see all sorts of fuss and bother.  Rising rates will pop the everything-bubble, sure as the sun rises.

I'm not sure HODL is the right strategy for a risk asset during the popping of an everything-bubble.

 

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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davefairtex wrote: I think
davefairtex wrote:

I think we triggered Mark somehow.  Maybe it was me.  I used to be able to tease him about things, but he appears to have temporarily misplaced his sense of humor.  Its probably very stressful to have such a large position that moves around so much from day to day.  And he now has all these people paying him - and then expecting to get rich as a result.  No pressure there.

I wasn't calling him out by name on my original post, which was intentional. I don't even know the guy, nor what he goes through on a daily basis, so while I continue to be skeptical on how blockchain can solve the Three E's as he seems to think it can, I'm not going to attack him personally. I did that once on PP, and was rightfully called to task on it. It accomplishes nothing. I take issue with him assuming I don't know anything about blockchain, though, since I have read/watched enough to see the main points about it even though I am far from an expert. One doesn't have to be an expert on a topic to be able to draw conclusions as to blockchain's future potential.

/shrugs

 

davefairtex wrote:

But ultimately utility does matter.  Just like earnings will eventually matter.  But perhaps not today. 

I'm still wondering what happens to the coins in a market downtrend.  Once the everything-bubble pops, how will the loss of liquidity affect the coins?  We know what it will do to all the other markets: they will drop.  Gold too, until the leverage is wrung out.

The 10-year is up to 2.97%.  If it breaks 3%, we could see all sorts of fuss and bother.  Rising rates will pop the everything-bubble, sure as the sun rises.

I'm not sure HODL is the right strategy for a risk asset during the popping of an everything-bubble.

I'm uncertain what strategy will work when the "everything bubble" market bursts. I've recently added "beer brewing" and "wine making" to my lists of preparatory skills, which seems as good a strategy as any, given that beer and wine would probably be trade-worthy products in an economic downturn. Plus, beer is never a bad idea no matter how the economy is doing.

 

In all seriousness (since my humor is often ill-timed), I am looking at the 3% line with interest too. I've read in a few places that mainstream technical-minded analysts say something slightly higher (3.08% or 3.15% if I recall the numbers) is the actual danger point. I'm not sure those analysts take into account the psychological effect of 3% well enough, but again...I'm no expert. They probably know something I don't, on a technical level.

 

What I am an expert on is that several people I know lost their shirts on crypto investments this year, because they didn't bother to investigate the basics of what they were investing in, and because they ignored basic investment strategies. That, by the way, is when and why I started watching several videos and reading multiple articles about blockchain, bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies.

 

I'm off to learn about brain surgery next, just so I can start debating with brain surgeons on medical websites.

 

-S

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Dave / Snarky

It's all good with me Dave, we go way back with the banter so I figured you would know some good-natured ribbing when you got it. Perhaps the soccer ball therapy would do you good?

As far a large positions and classroom room stuff- I've taken enough off the table and into good stable income cash-flow funds to retire so watching market gyrations is just for popcorn. The course and class hobby is just that. I like to teach and prevent people from losing their shirts as describe by Snarky.  Setting expectations is half the battle and you have to prepare people to expect 70% drops each year.  Once you expect them - and plan for it - everything falls into place. 

I regularly have fluctuations of several hundreds of thousands each day. I've even crossed a million dollars a day nightly and one develops a stomach for that in this asset class. The class curriculum funding is a rounding error in comparison. So the mention of that being significant just brings a chuckle.

I enjoy the banter and snarky humor as it is more entertainment and gets much more discussion that almost all the other topics on the website. You have to have a little edge to it to keep it interesting. It's a real challenge to change somebody's opinion - and even harder the older they get. PP trends much more mature audience so it is even more of a challenge to pry open somebody's mind that is already made up.  I welcome the challenge. Who wants to spend all their time in an echo chamber?

Even though I provided links for Snarky - it appears he ignored them which I expected. For all the talk about him knowing something about blockchains - it is obvious he gained his knowledge three years ago and hasn't kept up or shown any real initiative to do so. Talking to people like that is as effective as talking to a wall. But at least you can paint a wall to make it different.

A lot of people from PP have come to realize the advice I've given over the years and are interested in the coins \ blockchains I've invested in since my last public suggestions on this website. I've made many and the returns are just as impressive. They've sought me out and even flown out to Salt Lake City to take courses in person. Some people just don't have the time and energy to keep up with all of the technology and want some guidance that I can provide with the 'Watch My Wallets" program where they can see what I'm investing in real-time and can choose to mirror it or not. Like somebody else mentioned earlier - sounds like 'hassle' - so that's the customer\person I found I can help in the true capitalistic model there's a great opportunity here for somebody with my skill set. Did I save them the paper loss of the last few months-  no.

However, I did set the expectation that it was coming and provided the context and planning for how to take advantage of it. Dollar cost averaging is your friend. Buying at oversold prices puts a smile back on your face in no time.  Some of the biggest most amazing changes have still to happen this year. Get ready for more explosions upwards.

Going through Chris' excellent crash course again for a refresher and this time weaving in the changes to it that blockchain will bring. I'll be discussing that at the event in a couple of weeks. Hope to see you there in person.

 

 

 

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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Posts: 507
mrees999 wrote:It's all
mrees999 wrote:

It's all good with me Dave, we go way back with the banter so I figured you would know some good-natured ribbing when you got it. Perhaps the soccer ball therapy would do you good?

As far a large positions and classroom room stuff- I've taken enough off the table and into good stable income cash-flow funds to retire so watching market gyrations is just for popcorn. The course and class hobby is just that. I like to teach and prevent people from losing their shirts as describe by Snarky.  Setting expectations is half the battle and you have to prepare people to expect 70% drops each year.  Once you expect them - and plan for it - everything falls into place. 

I regularly have fluctuations of several hundreds of thousands each day. I've even crossed a million dollars a day nightly and one develops a stomach for that in this asset class. The class curriculum funding is a rounding error in comparison. So the mention of that being significant just brings a chuckle.

You're an amazing investor, and have made gobs of cash. Wonderful for you, and I'm not doubting your investing prowess. However, if you expect that no one can challenge your conclusions about blockchain's long-term trajectory just because you are a savvy investor, you're on the wrong website. I don't bow to someone just because they've made money I've never even tried nor wanted to make, or people who swing dicks around with rulers just to shut others up.

 

mrees999 wrote:

Even though I provided links for Snarky - it appears he ignored them which I expected. For all the talk about him knowing something about blockchains - it is obvious he gained his knowledge three years ago and hasn't kept up or shown any real initiative to do so. Talking to people like that is as effective as talking to a wall. But at least you can paint a wall to make it different.

Oh, we're up to name-calling now? How very adult of you. Are you always this awesome a person, or is today just an off day? I'll refrain from reciprocating in kind, because I'm familiar with what happens when one tries to wrestle with sus scrofa domesticus. I'd get dirty, and he would just enjoy it too much.

 

For your reference point in the future, I've read about a dozen articles on blockchain in the last few months alone, and watched a few videos from people called "gurus" of blockchain and cryptocurrency. I've got a friend who is a die-hard fan and regularly sends me links on all the new, exciting developments. So, I'm not as uninformed as you assume. Do I understand every detail at the technical level? No, but I don't need to in order to understand the potential of the technology.

 

Regarding the links, I read one of them - I'd read the other before, and the third was the same article as the second, which you must have missed because you didn't read them enough to recognize that - and the one you say has all the solutions to the Three E's in it I read twice, just to be sure I didn't miss something. All I'm getting from it is that it will revolutionize supply chains, distribution, costs, and efficiencies across the system. Yet, nowhere do I find anything that answers any of the questions I posed to you, so I can only assume you either don't understand the issues I raised, or you don't have the answer yourself. Will blockchain technology refill the declining aquifers? Bring back insects? Generate new electricity? Create oil? Eliminate sovereign debt?You have a dogmatic faith in the power of blockchain, a strange belief that those who don't agree with your conclusions obviously lack either intellect or the capacity to read something similar yet draw different conclusions, and one hell of an ego.

mrees999 wrote:

A lot of people from PP have come to realize the advice I've given over the years and are interested in the coins \ blockchains I've invested in since my last public suggestions on this website. I've made many and the returns are just as impressive. They've sought me out and even flown out to Salt Lake City to take courses in person. Some people just don't have the time and energy to keep up with all of the technology and want some guidance that I can provide with the 'Watch My Wallets" program where they can see what I'm investing in real-time and can choose to mirror it or not. Like somebody else mentioned earlier - sounds like 'hassle' - so that's the customer\person I found I can help in the true capitalistic model there's a great opportunity here for somebody with my skill set. Did I save them the paper loss of the last few months-  no.

However, I did set the expectation that it was coming and provided the context and planning for how to take advantage of it. Dollar cost averaging is your friend. Buying at oversold prices puts a smile back on your face in no time.  Some of the biggest most amazing changes have still to happen this year. Get ready for more explosions upwards.

Congratulations! You've invested well in the longest and easiest bull market ever! There do seem to be many geniuses in this market, I'll grant you that, but let's talk again once the macro-economic picture aligns with reality and shit gets ugly. Until then, I'll await the upward explosions and be sure to congratulate you on your savvy when/if they do. Until then, I'll sit in grieved sadness at all the fiat money I didn't make in a monetary system doomed to failure and collapse.

mrees999 wrote:

Going through Chris' excellent crash course again for a refresher and this time weaving in the changes to it that blockchain will bring. I'll be discussing that at the event in a couple of weeks. Hope to see you there in person.

I honestly do await this with fervor. See, I'm also one who loves popping my echo-chamber, and I look forward to what you can bring to the table here. I mean, other than name-calling and ad hominem attacks.

 

-S

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Credit where credit is due

I much more prefer the measured version you've just offered here, hope this style continues to help others calmly digest insights I know you have offered and all of the detailed supporting evidence and research you will be sharing that folks on PP need as part of the "show me the data" mantra.

I'm sure many are looking forward to hearing the very best I know you can deliver in a balanced constructive style that I feel will demonstrate your real strengths to the appreciation of the majority on PP.  Interesting you hope to expand on the Crash Course to see where the BlockChain fits in a new version of humanity's future.  Sure many here agree BlockChain technologies will likely help society, but just as AI and automation offer, I believe there will likely be bumps along the way as it could probably disrupt traditional jobs (banking, lawyers, etc)

I bet it can be a bit frustrating or bewildering being in this space for years and still coming across folks on PP that either "don't get it" or "don't wanna get it".  But also many are put off by the violent nature of the markets and the fear of it being ready to crash.  You are absolutely right about needing a strong stomach to HODL through a massive downturn, this strength I suspect will be required more frequently if institutions want to get the best possible entry prices.  Not everyone is cut out for it, not everyone has nerves of steel or a calm enough disposition, clearly you have built up that resilience and mastered the ability to have a relaxed approach, I feel for many that would be easier with insight of a balanced view of when we are in a blowoff phase, but as the market has shown us both to be humbled enough to know that neither of us can time it to perfection.

Hoping we can continue constructively and the calmer balanced side of you can provide unbiased data and help convince any nervous nellys to totally focus on good value long term investing based on strong carefully considered and deeply scrutinized fundamentals.  #NoFOMO  :-)

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Posts: 5464
teasing

Well, my read on your response was that you were angry and you were hitting back with the best shot you had.  You certainly put a lot of energy into it for it to be a "joke".  So I'm not buying it.  But I do understand it.

And FWIW, I wasn't suggesting that you were making big money off your classes.  Rather, I was saying that the burden of advising others on where to go and what to do takes an emotional toll when things don't work out.  This is magnified if they are actually paying you for your guidance.  Taking money from them will - assuming you are human - heighten your guilt if it doesn't work out.  Regardless of how much you tell them to expect a 70% downtrend, actually watching them suffer through the 70% loss just isn't fun, assuming you have any empathy at all.  Plus, you are putting yourself out there, which is emotionally riskier.  My observation is that, in the past, you used to hide during bitcoin downtrends.

As for the soccer thing, which you brought up twice now, I get a fair amount of exercise, FWIW.  Ask Adam, or Charles.  They know.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Posts: 428
Buying it.

You don't have to buy it. Some days I have more energy than others and I feel the urge to be more creative in my responses. Yesterday (and today I suppose) I'm having more fun with it. Most days I don't care enough. But I did see you get a little more pointed about me, so I figured I would return the favor. No harm intended of course.

With bitcoin down days - it actually is a bit more emotionally difficult because of the newbies that no matter how much we emphasize to expect it and plan on it, when it's their first rodeo, most are unprepared for it. Even me - it was hard as there wasn't as much history of the pattern and it was much smaller back then with almost no blue chips supporting it.  Now it's a different story and I don't sweat it, but everything else I can say sounds cliche.  It's a BUYING opportunity  and EVERYTHING IS ON SALE - don't seem to sink in for somebody who just watched their hopes dash by 70%.  But that's only the first time. They are more battled hardened the next year and they remember to leave dry powder for the next 'crisis'. By the third time they are laughing and licking their chops. It's just wisdom that you can't short cut.

So it's not that I "Hide" during downtrends. I'm constantly talking with my subscribers - but there's not much point in convincing new people how awesome it will be when what they are reading is their newbie friends just got shell-shocked. There are more productive ways to use my free time. I pick my battles.  There will soon be another mania (It's likely already started). What I should do is post the earnings that my followers also get and share with me, but I'm not comfortable with sharing other people's data.  But rest assured, I've helped create many millionaires with my wisdom and experience. (not advice as I'm not a licensed financial advisor). Just pointing out the new interesting technologies that I'm following is usually enough. Just pointing people in the right direction to find the needles in the haystacks is all the help they need. - Of course I'm only getting open minded people. 

I didn't realize you knew Charles and Adam in the real world. Good for you. Too bad they won't be around to help with the big move coming up.  That should be all the exercise you need for a while, although not nearly enough fun.

 

 

 

 

 

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davefairtex
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Posts: 5464
manias

Ok, with that kerfuffle out of the way...we can start talking about matters of substance.

Certainly if the coins move to the next level of actually revolutionizing something - as opposed to promising to do so (i.e. Internet of today vs Internet 1999) - then the rifle shot success stories will probably do quite well.  The next facebook or google (of the coin world) will be huge.

But between then and now, if the markets overall start experiencing generally less liquidity - if central banks continue to rein in their money printing, and start raising rates, what effect do you think this will have on the next mania?

Can bitcoin rise in a falling economy?

How did FB and GOOG do during 2008-2009?

Prices of coins don't rise based on doing good works.  They rise based on inflows of money.

Well, that, and USDT manipulation.

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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The frustrating thing here

Is that I "get" the potential of the technology, although I oppose blind investment into it by people who can't be bothered to get to know it better (as some friends and family did, and then lost their shirts). The thing with blockchain (and cryptos), though, is we are still in the early stages of an emerging technology and we can't be exactly sure how it will actually play out.

 

Will an economic downturn undermine the development of the tech? Will existing institutional players find a way to undermine, incorporate, and corrupt it? Will it be scalable and operable at the levels it would need to be to truly disrupt things? Will ecological collapse, environmental changes, political upheaval, conflict, or energy supply depletion hit before the tech develops? Lots of questions as yet unanswered, and I've seen enough hype in my life to always be skeptical when someone claims a "future potential" until I've seen the actual thing operate as intended in real world conditions. The whole "solar panel roadways" thing springs to mind as a salient example. There are certainly enough questions to keep me from throwing my money at it as an investment, but since I generally don't invest in the first place, that's no big deal. 

 

That all being said, there's every chance blockchain technologies will greatly help alleviate some of the "Three Es" long enough for us to implement other changes that could make a difference, by lengthening the time we have until resources fully deplete, such as in the food chain stuff, where efficiency in food distribution and use can be improved, and which might lead to a partial reduction of energy inputs required in the system.  Do I trust we homo-sapiens will make such implementations happen before it gets to be 30 seconds to midnight, not so much, but that has nothing to do with the technology of blockchain or cryptocurrency in general.

 

I'm also worried that the energy inputs of the technology itself - no matter how efficient the energy usage, all blockchain I'm aware of use energy to some degree, as well as computers, wires and sensors which must all be built from raw materials - could hasten rather than forestall our imminent face-plant off of the energy cliff. I've seen little in writing that completely assuages my fears in this regard, but I'm open if anyone knows how it can be done according to the specs that make blockchain what it is and in a non-energy draining way.

 

But do I know that's what will happen? No. Do I think the technology will save us from the things highlighted in the Crash Course? Big No. Could I be wrong? Big Hell Yes. Would I love to see this emerging tech save the world, screw over the elite, and finally allow the "little people" to have a say in how our world is run? Biggest Hell Yes Evah. Yet, my inherent skepticism and pessimism keeps me tethered to the ground here.

 

 

Either way, I've said enough and don't intend to weigh in on any level on this topic again, since I clearly don't have the level of expertise to operate in these waters, and equally clearly only those with the proper credentials are even allowed to speak at the table.

 

Good day, all. Snarky out.

 

-S

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mrees999
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Posts: 428
We've only just begun

Remember that this section is only part one of an eight part series. It's much too early to draw conclusions yet. I'm only shining light into the possibilities, this technology will take decades to develop. There are thousands of projects running in parallel. 95% will fail. Projects we haven't even heard of yet will likely come up and take the lead in some areas. It's very fluid. 

If somebody predicts 'blockchain will fail."  Which one? Now we have them springing up and advancing in so many different ecosystems it's almost like saying 'life' will fail." or "computers will fail."  It's a wide world out there ready to explore. I'm only showing you the windows to peak out and begin your journey.  It can be scary and daunting. But also the early realm of new possibilities. Will you be among the first 8% of Americans to take some small reasoned positions in well-researched areas?   If so, don't go in blindly.

 

For the investment side - it comes in manias and panics on exaggerated scales. The last mania ended in January. It looks to have bottomed in April. We now seem to be making our way into another mania. Each mania seems to be much bigger than the previous and astonish the main stream media at each new high. The last high for bitcoin was near 20,000 and Ether at $1,400. It is common for the new mania to be triple or more the previous mania. If the pattern holds, you can do the math. But it's important to understand where in the cycle we are. Then, know a good exit strategy. Rinse and repeat.

 

Look for Week 2 - where I get into platform coins. They start their own eco-system.

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Posts: 428
We've only just begun

Remember that this section is only part one of an eight part series. It's much too early to draw conclusions yet. I'm only shining light into the possibilities, this technology will take decades to develop. There are thousands of projects running in parallel. 95% will fail. Projects we haven't even heard of yet will likely come up and take the lead in some areas. It's very fluid. 

If somebody predicts 'blockchain will fail."  Which one? Now we have them springing up and advancing in so many different ecosystems it's almost like saying 'life' will fail." or "computers will fail."  It's a wide world out there ready to explore. I'm only showing you the windows to peak out and begin your journey.  It can be scary and daunting. But also the early realm of new possibilities. Will you be among the first 8% of Americans to take some small reasoned positions in well-researched areas?   If so, don't go in blindly.

 

For the investment side - it comes in manias and panics on exaggerated scales. The last mania ended in January. It looks to have bottomed in April. We now seem to be making our way into another mania. Each mania seems to be much bigger than the previous and astonish the main stream media at each new high. The last high for bitcoin was near 20,000 and Ether at $1,400. It is common for the new mania to be triple or more the previous mania. If the pattern holds, you can do the math. But it's important to understand where in the cycle we are. Then, know a good exit strategy. Rinse and repeat.

 

Look for Week 2 - where I get into platform coins. They start their own eco-system.

 

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mrees999
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OMG

Watch OMG closely.  You might start seeing what you are talking about soon.

 

We will be adding this one to my tally sheet for investment hints on this site.   Of course, my subscribers learned of this one much earlier. (Blockchainlead.com) - Had to give myself a plug here: ;-)

Too bad we can't get it at 40 cents anymore which was my entry point. Another 43 fold return as of today (before it forks into two coins).  If you only knew what was in my wallet...

 

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Posts: 337
Background
mrees999 wrote:

Watch OMG closely.....

Thanks for sharing Mark, I thought folks might like a balanced summary on this, this brief article covers OmiseGos plans.

https://www.investinblockchain.com/omisego-2018-roadmap/

Ethereum and its inventor Vitalik are associated with the project, so it has pedigree, back in the day, both he and Mark used to contribute to BitCoin magazine.

https://www.theindependentrepublic.com/2018/03/25/omisego-why-omg-is-the...

A snippet on the Hard Fork - or maybe a Spoon if you'd prefer   :-)

https://www.theindependentrepublic.com/2018/04/02/omisegos-omg-hard-spoon/

 

In terms of the general market, from my observations, there is still very little mania from the general public, the google trends to "buy bitcoin" that we have followed closely on here are still very low, I doubt tons of new little people have come in the last 2 weeks, this strong push up is probably institutions that got in the last month whilst folks had to sell for taxes.  To use Dave's friendly cute term, its maybe experienced "cows" that are digging deeper into their pockets as they become confident and are assuming we have left behind the lows.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=buy%20bitcoin

There's the Ethereum Consensus Conference next month to gain more interest from businesses and in the v short term the CME futures expire on Friday, that could cause a bit of to and fro in the next few days, especially if there's a retail push for BTC to challenge $10k.

I believe public interest will gradually rise as the summer gets underway.  But if there's a big economic downturn then a lot of "hot" and speculative money that is in crypto may duck for cover, just like folks in the stockmarket, unless of course BTC becomes a flight to safety just like PM's have traditionally held.

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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Posts: 5464
mark's model

I just got Mark's model.

He doesn't care about bitcoin, or ethereum.  At some level, they don't matter.  They're for the...ignorant masses.

I'm going to reframe what Mark is saying in language I understand.

Mark is an angel investor.  He throws money at blockchain-startups at a very early stage.  He spends a few hours sorting out the project and the team, weeds out the obvious scams, and operates under the premise that he must kiss a bunch of frogs, and the occasional prince will more than make up for all the frogs.

Example: the OMG "prince" will pay for 40 frogs.

And Mark doesn't need very many princes for this to work, given where the blockchain ecosystem is right now.  There are thousands of projects out there, some of which will be really successful.  He just needs to make sure he minimizes the number of scams he wastes money on, and he just throws money at the rest.

So I have two questions for Mark.

1) What's your frog-to-prince ratio?

2) How many frogs do you have in that wallet of yours?

I'm not asking which ones - I'm just asking for a count.

Luke Moffat's picture
Luke Moffat
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Lottery Tickets

I equated it to buying lottery tickets. Artifice or advice? That is the question...

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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lottery tickets

No, with lottery tickets, you don't have an edge, you're just betting randomly.

Mark is a card-counter in the bitcoin casino.  He knows the space, the players, and the problems, so he can weed out the scams much more rapidly.  Then, the strategy is to just throw money at the rest, and assume some of them will pay off spectacularly, while most of the others will fail.

But if his hit rate is 1 in 5, while random chance would be 1 in 20, that's a massive win.

He has explained this in bits and pieces before, but I never wrapped my brain around it until just now.

That's just my sense anyway.

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Luke Moffat
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Fair Point

Gambling with an edge. All the gamblers I know only tell me about their wins, which is what I see from Mark. People listening to what he says might also want to know about the turkeys he's lost currency on. Just so that it doesn't come across as all sunshine and rainbows (which is what I believe your prince to frog ratio meant). But it all depends on what makes you part with your cash I guess.

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mrees999
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Posts: 428
One Strategy, correct

Good job Dave, that is one of my strategies. Kind of like a Templeton strategy. I have several wallet examples for people to see exactly which coins I'm investing in very early. Most people don't have the time or energy to do all the research and weed out scams, so as a business model, they can - for a fee, have access to see my investments and save themselves a lot of time and wasted money trying to find the needles in the haystack.

This strategy I call my 'Numbers Game" wallet and it is relatively new. I have about 25 or so coins in it. I am an Angle investor and buy very early and very cheaply based on patterns and rhythms I've discovered.  My goal is just to have one in 10 hit. When they do, they go big. So with 25 coins, if I get two that hit - they may go 100x to 1000x. 

I've got a very, very good record as I've been at this a long time and have a rare skill-set. My initial investments are low so my risk is low. The potential payoff is huge that math works (so far). There are plenty of very promising projects around the world. I've lost a few thousand here and there on a specific coin as nobody will hit 100% Many of my coins are so new I don't know where they will be in a year. My new rule is to give all of them a least a year to see where they are as I've written some off too soon and regret it later.

All told, I hold about 60 coins\tokens right now, but some get forked and we end up with two coins for one.  We also may get free 'air dropped' coins (free money) if you are holding the blockchain tokens that people want to get seeded into the market.  Your blockchain isn't much use if you don't have a lot of people using it so it's common to find your hard-wallet suddenly has been funded with new tokens from a new project. Maybe they will be worth something someday. Maybe not but it didn't cost us anything so no loss.  OMG did an airdrop last summer for people that owned Ether in a personal wallet.

Air Drops, Forked coins, ICOs, connecting the dots in hundreds of technologies at once is not easy. Avoiding scams, hucksters, and frauds at the same time is even more tricky. It is not a science as much as it is an art. I would not recommend a newbie start trying to do what I'm doing. - I don't even allow newbies watch what I'm doing without some basic training and time behind the wheel.

But I do care very much about bitcoin and ether - they make up an overwhelming huge part of my portfolio. They are the bellwethers for the entire investment space. The 1 in 10 strategy (numbers game) I just mentioned is less than 3% of my entire portfolio in dollar terms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Posts: 337
Great reply Mark

Comprehensive detailed answer there Mark

I applaud and respect you kept it calm and focused on evidence, when it could of been so easy not to. I'm impressed, that's the sort of high quality response I love to see.

I can testify that Mark's approach on keeping BitCoin & Ethereum as his major holdings is absolutely genuine.

Where I have felt the need to possibly seek more clarification is when I have felt that I personally have found it difficult to obtain a detailed balanced fundamental valuation and reasonably clear expectation of future performance assessing all pitfalls.

I have also found it difficult blindly following a "just buy it" recommendation during a blowoff phase, it certainly didn't sit comfortably with me and created anxiety as it went against the rational side, that's where trusting my own judgement and also dollar cost averaging can help.

But I am still new here to this space and always still learning (including from my own errors in judgement)

Mark's enthusiasm is evident, I hope he'll continue to channel it by doing what I respect the most, by giving thoughtful detailed experienced balanced views that enrich our community.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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good service

Well, from where I sit, I definitely think there is real value in sorting through wheat from chaff in the new coin startups.  I mean, I could do it too, given enough time and study, but acquiring the domain knowledge would take years, and as he said, by then, the move will already have happened.

There are few enough times when I agree completely with Mark (!) but this is one of them.  If you want to buy the new entrants in the coin space, it is quite valuable to have someone who has done a first-pass filter to get rid of most of the scams.  Certainly that's something I'd pay for.

Things being as they are, I'm guessing that - maybe - Mark buys the startup coins he likes, and once he has his position he tells everyone else about them, but that's certainly better than simply never hearing about them in the first place and having to find them myself.

In some sense, that's how he *really* gets paid.  Our purchases helps boost his market cap.  But there is always a food chain in these things, and it takes a lot of work to be at the top.

Of course I could be wrong, as I was about the percentage of ETH/BTC he was holding.  Which I still think is a bit nuts.  :)  If it were me, I'd probably do 50/50, but then again I've done a number of startups in my life, so for me that's no big deal.

The one-year holding period timeframe is just about minimum.  It takes a year to get anything meaningful done.  Usually its more like 2-3 years.

FWIW.

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
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Posts: 507
It seems to me

And I'm commenting on investment strategy, not the inherent value of blockchain/crypto here...

 

It seems to me that you guys are talking about two different strategies/approaches to investing in the crypto space: 1) Throw a volume of cash across the space early in the life cycle of a crypto, knowing much of that will not see sizable return on your investment (or none), but relying on the few that do succeed to carry enough ROI to more than make up the difference, or 2) Focused research to separate the wheat from the chaff, then throw most of your investment money into what you think are a few potentially good crypto investments. Both seem perfectly viable - Vanguard operates on principle #1, while some investment companies follow #2 more - and I'd be fine with my friends and family having thrown money at bitcoin/Etherium/etc if they'd have bothered to actually think about which of the two approaches they would take, and why. The warnings I gave them essentially were that "buying X because Y told me I should" without knowing what the hell you are even investing in, and without being skeptical about whether "Y" has any vested interest in people "buying X" in the first place, is a super-bad investment approach. 

 

This all helps me better understand why Mark and I may have come to the place we came to: I understand blockchain and crypto enough to be able to think about or posit on its possible long term application in human society, but nowhere near enough to think about investing in it, because I'd use approach #2 if I were investing. So, I'm reticent about investing in the crypto markets, and my reticence to invest can easily be seen as opposing the viability or value of the underlying technology itself...which isn't the case. Hell, if I had the kind of money needed to throw widely across the crypto space, and the mindset to do it (I'm a research-before-jumping kind of person in everything I do), I'd probably be nodding in total agreement with you, Mark. In short, just because I'm dubious on whether blockchain will enable the kinds of long-term systemic solutions we need doesn't mean I'm dubious on whether it's a space worthy of investing in. I do know enough to think about the former, but wouldn't dare do the latter due to my lack of specific and more detailed knowledge...but that's just my personal style, not some universal truth.

 

As usual, civil and detailed conversation on PP has led to better awareness and understanding for me.

 

Incidentally, in history there have often been multiple approaches to human agriculture, practiced differently by different cultures throughout time. However, if we could simplify those approaches, they'd basically follow the same strategy as we are discussing here: 1) throw tons of seeds all over a tilled space, and perhaps mixing them in a little, knowing that 9 of every 10 seeds will not make it, but having thrown more than enough seeds that 1/10th will still be plenty of food, or 2) Very meticulously planting fewer seeds but taking greater care to minimize the chances any seeds would be lost. Both approaches seemed to work for the civilizations that practiced them, because both had advantages and disadvantages to the peoples practicing them.

 

-S

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 428
Duplicate

Duplicate

 

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 428
Not a financial advisor

I always remind people that follow me that I'm not a financial advisor and I don't give financial advice. If I did - I would just work for a hedge fund manager. I allow people to see what I'm doing and then they can do their own research. Sometimes I will give more insight into what I'm doing, but not always as I'm semi-retired and I expect people will learn to get better at it on their own with experience. This is teaching people how to fish rather than just giving them the fish. I think of it also like a mutual fund - you can see all the investment in a basic of pics that you can research and read the prospectus - our you can just see them on your statement and you're good with it. "The Prospectus" in this case is the blockchain team's website and white paper.

There is a group of people are genuinely interested but don't know where to begin and just appreciate having somebody find the needles that they can research and share information with each other as a team, they grow stronger as a team and share the wins. I don't micro-manage or directly advise. We also have a separate group (THE HODLERS) that does just blockchain education and we don't talk about investing at all for that group. It's much cheaper and we aim to give good foundational education so people will be able to understand how to read white papers and make good decisions on their own armed with the ability to decern for themselves. The group in Watch my Wallets, also are in the more basic group so they have access to both sets of information.

I'm not a day trader as this asset class is manipulated and has a host of rules that don't match the regular world. We call it the 'wild west'.  Hence the need to 'HoldOn for Dear Life' and to expect the unexpected.  You must have a five-year timeline or longer. Anything less than a one-year timeframe will make you panic as 70% yearly corrections are no surprise, but neither are 100x gains. You have to accept that and have the stomach for it.  Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and mentally write off any funds you put into this asset class.  Most of what I do after I pic a blockchain - is nothing.  That's proven the best strategy so far.  Let it marinate and mature. There are no shortcuts.

 

I don't plan on doing this forever so I'm the 'training wheels' and coach until people understand enough on their own to go one without me once they get wiser. It's not for everybody and I'm not shy about booting people out of the group if they are disruptive or giving bad advice (after warnings of course). 

 

Sometimes I make momentum moves, most of the time I research the project thoroughly, the "Numbers Game" pics I don't research as much but use herd mentality pattern predictions.  I estimate 90% of the people that buy these are 'dumb money' and are predictable with what they will buy. I just buy them first in anticipation. For the Numbers Games pics - I just want one out of ten, any more than that is gravy.  But even the numbers game pics are one in 10 that are released within the same timeframe. So for 25 pics - I've narrowed from 250. As I'm going to let these run for a year, and it's not a static list - I have around nine months before I start seeing the results of those prediction. We are still near the bottom of the bear cycle so I can't get a read on those yet. At least until the next mania peaks. 

My ratio for pics before the 'numbers game' experiment is well over 4 out of 5 doing very well. - That is ones that I've actually sold, not just paper gains- and generally a ten bagger or better.

I've listed around 20 pics on the site from the years I've been on. For those, I've batted 1000%. You can research my blogs to see if I recommended a turkey.  I haven't. Those pics were in real-time so I didn't have the benefit of looking back like we can today - and then leave out bad pics. All losses I've had are because of attempts to time the market and trade too early after losing patience and move to a higher performer. While technically a small loss, the funds moved into another coin that was pulling 10x or better which swamped the small loss I can accept as friction if it was to continue its momentum.. Put another way, I may take a $1000 loss in order to make a 10,000 gain with the swap. Net effect a 9,000 gain with that swap. I don't track with detail every move like that to give percentages of success rate doing that. But I've decided against that strategy going forward.  Now it's "Fire and Forget". Let's see where it is next year and perhaps cull some turkeys at that point. Then lock and load on the next round.

 

 

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 337
Off grid, not connected to banking system?

Still think that now futures are a regular thing Bitcoins value will be bounced about further. Current action could be dropping to meet this Fridays settlement close..

Again whilst it's decentralised and not Government issued, it's hard to say that its not connected to the traditional banking system when the same folks that run institutions that speculate on shorting and keeping PMs range bound are now on board.

BTC could well become just a financial instrument for the rich old guard to flip, of course that's not to say that there's $ equivalent long term profits for those willing to risk a speculative investment...

Tom Lee's recent survey of new potential institutional investors was interesting...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dbj8X0JW0AAiQAH.jpg

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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Joined: May 17 2017
Posts: 180
Repercussions

The following could have some surprising repercussions for hodlers of ETH.

https://www.coindesk.com/even-ethereums-top-developers-think-blockchain-...

 

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
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Posts: 180

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