Upcoming Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency Webinar

Adam Taggart
By Adam Taggart on Sun, Dec 24, 2017 - 2:39pm

The #1 request Peak Prosperity has been inundated with recently has been for a webinar de-mystifying the chaotic universe that is the cryptocurrency space.

Well, we have good news: PP.com resident crypto expert Mark Rees has agreed to be our featured guest for a deep-dive webinar into all things crypto.

Given the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency market right now, we want to hold this webinar as soon as possible -- and ideally before Chris and I hit the road in mid-January for our West Coast Summits.

So we want to give you, our readers, the power to choose the timing for this.

Please take less than a minute to click on the blue button below to take our quick survey, letting us know which date/time you prefer most:

19 Comments

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3138
History Repeating

This article captures well the mania cryptocurrencies are currently in.

It strikes an eerily similar chord to my experience at Stanford Business School in 1999, when my fellow MBAs stopped going to class to instead trade internet stocks or found new dot-com ventures from their dorm rooms.

While that strategy paid off for a (very) few, for most it did not. Many look back on that time as the year they wasted $40k on an empty classroom seat.

Crypto Crazy On Campus: Choosing Bitcoin Over A Bachelor's Degree (Forbes)

If it wasn’t for Bitcoin, Kyle Winstanley would be finishing out his senior year at the University of Michigan.

The 22-year-old engineering student caught the cryptocurrency bug in August, when his classmate, Spencer Porter, added him to a Facebook cryptocurrency discussion group. Within a few weeks, the two were hooked.

Winstanley says he was always interested in markets – during his freshman and sophomore year, he taught himself stock trading. And while at a marketing internship this summer, 21-year-old Porter says he stumbled on blockchain-based secure message platform Obsidian and decided to invest in its ICO. They soon began to network with other college students on Facebook, sharing market analyses and predictions.

“I logged over 2,000 hours in the last four months in research, charting analytics and data, and it’s really become a passion,” Porter says. “I wake up every morning and I’m excited to begin to learn.

Much to the dismay of Porter’s roommates, the seniors converted Porter’s apartment into a Bitcoin trading room. In September, Winstanley started investing $200, while Porter contributed an additional $2,000 to the endeavor.

By December, the two had amassed about $15,000 – enough to convince Winstanley (and his parents) to drop out of school and pursue cryptocurrency trading full-time.

“I’m not opposed to trying to finish school and I’d love to have my degree at some point and come back and get it,” says Winstanley, now just one semester short of graduating. “But I couldn’t let this market happen again without my full attention on it.”

Winstanley and Porter represent a growing wave of college students who are being swept up by the seemingly easy riches in cryptocurrencies and are now speculating in the tokens. Volatile Bitcoin, the blue chip among cryptocurrencies, has climbed 15-fold in 2017. While only a rare few students make the leap to full-time trading, buying crypto is nearly as easy as sending money via Venmo and many students are shelling out spare cash in hopes of striking it rich.

Thirty-two percent of Millennials are likely to buy Bitcoin in the next five years, according to an October survey of more than 2,000 U.S. adults conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Blockchain Capital. And about one in four Millennials would rather own $1,000 of Bitcoin over $1,000 in stocks.

Sensing a growing trend, many universities — from Stanford University to the University of California at Berkeley to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology — are now offering Bitcoin and cryptocurrency classes and student-run Bitcoin clubs are popping up increasingly popular.

Porter says he is reducing his course load, and expanding his senior year over two semesters instead of graduating in the spring. Today, he and Winstanley are coming at it with more capital. They’ve secured almost $70,000 – a mix of money from their fall semester profits and from family.

In the coming weeks, Winstanley’s Ann Arbor apartment will be converted into a trading hub, complete with a 10-by-10 foot projection screen and about 12 different monitors following trades on various crypto exchanges around the world.

“For those that have not stepped in yet, the window is closing,” warns Porter, a double major in digital media communications and cognitive science. “Wall Street and the big money has begun to enter. They are moving very, very fast.”

Click here to read the full article

I'm willing to wager that the $70,000 Porter & Winstanley raised from their family is now worth noatably less after the plunge in Bitcoin over the past two weeks...

For what it's worth, I'm all for young minds seizing on an opportunity to capitalize on an emerging paradigm. That's been an important driver of progress through the Industrial Revolution, the automobile age, the Tech boom, etc.

But such risk-taking should leverage unique insight and advantage; not mere speculation -- as very much seems the case with these college day-trading drop-outs.

thatchmo's picture
thatchmo
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 14 2008
Posts: 462
I'm guessing you meant

I'm guessing you meant Wednesday, January 17th?  Aloha, Steve.

[Adam: meant Wed the 10th. Fixed!]

charleshughsmith's picture
charleshughsmith
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 15 2010
Posts: 718
minor cryptos up 20X in 2 months

I don't follow many of the 1,300 cryptos and tokens, but a few I follow due to their technology (minerless blockchain) have soared from 20 cents in late Nov. to $4 in Dec.  These are pretty insane returns for early investors.  This is definitely like 1999, only on steroids.

As I've stated here for the past 18 months, bitcoin, and possibly Ethereum, are in a different class. It's entirely possible BTC marches higher while the also-rans lose their recent gains.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5530
litecoin

I have a friend who bought a bunch of litecoin.  I'm sure he bought it because "bitcoin was too expensive" - and the thought was, litecoin will go from $300 to $18000 just like bitcoin.

Here's something originally from Martin Armstrong: he said that in any "phase transition" market - which bitcoin definitely qualifies for - the sign of the top is when you get an outside reversal on the weekly chart (a.k.a. a bearish engulfing) after 6 weeks of (vertical) movement.  More or less anyway.

That suggests a retrace back to the 7500 level - at a minimum.

I've posted this chart before...

Mikey1052's picture
Mikey1052
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 8 2008
Posts: 41
What thought is there about Hashgraph

Blockchain vs Hashgraph

Is hashgraph for real and is it potentially as superior to blockchain as they imply or is it just more of the same? Is there any legitimacy to hashgraph?

https://goldsilver.com/hidden-secrets/hidden-secrets-of-money-episode-8/

 

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 430
Hit me with your best shot

Hello all. 

I'm honest to a fault as a lot of you already know. ;-) . Give me your best questions now so I can make sure I have time to give you a good accurate response when we get around to doing this thing.

Extra points for creativity.  Try to stump me.

This will be fun!

 

-Mark

 

 

 

Afridev's picture
Afridev
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2013
Posts: 144
Some questions for Mark

Hi Mark,

Here a couple of questions. I know that these are both wide and deep, any thoughts you can spare on these would be very welcome:

Concerning the social good that is potentially enclosed: the blockchain and its spin-offs could potentially be a threat to the liberty of people (see point below), but can be used too to strengthen the resilience/ freedom of people and transparency of governing etc. Where do you see the positive elements moving, and how can individuals (with limited resources) support the positive sides of this movement. As an example of what could potentially be positive movements if they get enough traction, initiatives like PressCoin (https://www.presscoin.com/) - I put in the equivalent of 1.5 ETH as I think it scratches a severe itch in society. Where do you see these kind of initiatives for the 'greater good' move, and are you aware of other initiatives that are interesting to look at if we would want to bring positive change (locally)?

Weaknesses and threats: the blockchain/ cryptocurrencies hold strengths and opportunities, however they also have weaknesses (for the key cryptos: e.g. potential for scaling, speed of transaction, traceability, in some cases (e.g. fraud/ theft) immutability) and present threats (blockchain technology can potentially lock down/ control a significant part of life if centralized; perceived threat to political & financial status quo; knocking out certain key-holder positions - in itself good, but socially very disruptive). Can you give your thoughts on these issues and where we're heading.

Technological evolution: I read that people are saying that Bitcoin is gen.1, Ether gen. 2, Cardano (https://www.cardanohub.org/en/home/) gen. 3. Would you agree with this, and do you see other gen. 3, or even gen. 4(+) on the horizon (not necessarily specific names, but approaches/ technologies that could potentially be part of next phases. Where do you think we will be in 2-5-10 years (assuming society is able maintain its current level of complexity...)?

Market dynamics: I think there are several types of players in the market now: (a) the early birds who bought into, and supported, a new and fascinating technology - the (on hindsight) 'smart money', probably the developers should be grouped in here too. I suppose many are HODLers up to a certain level; (b) people trying to make a quick buck by buying into the frenzy and hoping that they'll strike it big, much of the bubble part of the current price rise will be due to this group; (c) those entering because of what cryptocurrencies potentially represent and gives to them (decentralisation, relative anonymity, democratisation); (d) the ones hedging against political and financial issues (fiat currencies; bubbles - though see also later point'; control - though the technology can be used to lock down the system). I'm not sure if institutional buyers have already entered the market officially or unofficially and if yes, what their motives are (i.e. investing, manipulating the market). I may be missing stakeholders here (and the categories are probably not that clear-cut). What is your view on the current key dynamics around these stakeholders. Different stakeholders will have different reactions in different scenarios: further 'bubbling' of the crypto market, crash in crypto prices (triggers?), crash in financial markets/ loss of trust in fiat/ governments. Can you sketch some scenarios you think are probable short- and medium-term.

Crypto bubble (closely linked to the point above): the blockchain and cryptocurrencies do bring advantages and features that give them a specific service value (this is still very limited for the average person, but this could change), they also hold some potentially very significant promises that may, or may not materialise. These features give them real, and perceived future value. At this moment prices (and their fluctuations) don't really seem to reflect this value (I think Bitcoin is largely being surpassed in potential real use/ added value by more useful cryptos - my not very informed opinion). I think we are currently seeing several dynamics playing at the same time: people trying to make a quick buck (not based on real potential value but on speculation); people looking for alternative stores of value/ hedges; people looking at potential societal improvement that this technology can bring; people looking for specific advantages (e.g. anonymity); people discovering a new technology; the technology evolving, maturing and glimmering start of real functionality; people attacking the space for the threats it could potentially entail (to them, mostly not explicitly mentioned); attempts to 'break the code' or the management systems of the code.
I think we are in a bubble, but because there are other dynamics that haven't fully played out yet I don't think the final blow-off is due yet. What do you think will happen in the coming months/ year; rise to the moon (seems we have passed that phase); important overall crypto crash/ drawdown burning many, resulting in a bear-market that will need years and very concrete and fundamental advances in the space to make it interesting again; a combination of the two where specific cryptos fall, while others stand (and potentially gain from the fall of the first group); a hijacking of the blockchain space (aided by a doctored crash?) by centralised government/ private sector players? Any thoughts on (more) likely scenarios?

Gold-backed cryptos: I asked the question before, and was (my interpretation) told that that was kind of prehistoric wink, but I didn't get any arguments on why this is a bad idea. I'm a bit slow, so could we retake that question. Assuming that it is done in a honest and transparent way a downside hedge guaranteed by gold seems to be a good insurance mechanism. Why is this such a bad idea?

A lot of questions, and probably not all relevant in the aims of the event. Any thoughts are much appreciated though... Thanks in advance for bearing with me and looking into these!

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 25 2014
Posts: 880
Okay, Mark and Fairtex both

If you don't mind, I'd like you both to prepare an answer, but first one don't post it. Rather, post "I have my answer". Then the other one post, followed by the first... and discussion can ensue. That way, each one's initial answer is original, and not a reply to the other. Two questions: please feel free to especially relate to and thru bitcoin, if you wish, but the questions are much more general in intent (though the specifics are indeed bitcoin).

1) Dave is running his program, and has a good argument for a retrace back to 7500. Yet almost immediately, he sees a double bottom reversal.

Moreover, even Martin Armstrong's computerized forecasts seem to get repeatedly overturned.

Does this look like a bull trap to one or both of you?

Why or why not?

2) I am seeing good learning programs; but I am also seeing a lot of overturning. Can either of you indicate what you think is breaking down in the modeling?

In terms of the whole theme of this website, the original modeling was "exponential growth", which the website pointed out was a fallacy; taking into account limits of growth, seemed to do better. In the same way, what are the biggest factors that are not currently being taken into account, that you see?

3) Is there a strategy to navigating the bull and bear traps of flash-and-crash? For instance, dropping 80% out and then reinvesting and unleveraged twenty percent?

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5530
my AI

MR-

I don't really like to overthink these things.  Money flows drive bitcoin.  Money flows in, bitcoin rises.  It flows out, bitcoin drops.

I have noticed that people take bitcoin very personally.  If it rises, the cheerleaders feel they have been validated, and their egos grow large.  If it falls, the nay-sayers feel validated, and their egos grow large.  There is a lot of chest-thumping and I-told-ya-so. I try to keep my ego out of it as much as possible. It just gets in the way.  I don't always succeed.  I do take little victory laps when my code makes the right call, but I like to be happy regardless of direction.

I have never quite seen a chart like bitcoin's chart, straight up for weeks on end.  I try to find parallels.  There are a few, but they all end unhappily.  Bitcoin is the first international 24/7 traded item, so it can suck in money from anywhere, at any time.  Independently of its underlying merits, its a fascinating case study for me.   It might well be different in magnitude than anything we've yet seen, because it can draw on money from around the world, rather than just one specific country.

My AI recognizes short term patterns.  It tells you the trend based on an amalgamation of lots and lots of different inputs.  So if one of those inputs change - which are typically reflective of either money flows or short-term cyclical activity patterns in the market itself - then the AI's answer changes too.

The daily chart remains in a downtrend, at least for now.  Could today's possible double bottom on the 4h chart be a headfake longer term?  It certainly could.  My code is happy to buy the breakout and then sell the breakdown.  That's what I love about it.  It isn't shy about changing its mind, unlike me.

It also doesn't look forward very far at all - the 4h forecaster attempts to project forward 4 time periods; about 16 hours.

 

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3138
Need 10 more survey responders

A clear preference is emerging for the date/time for this webinar.

But I'd like 10 more entries to be more confident in the statistical significance of the results.

If you haven't yet taken the survey, please do so now by clicking on the blue button in the original post above.

tx!

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 25 2014
Posts: 880
All good and well, Dave, but...

Dave, your interest is your AI program; and you defend your ego with that just fine, and that's great.

Let me categorically state that although in theory I am not awed by your program, in practice I am. To be able to actually do that is, to me, amazing. To understand the concept of the math of it, isn't.

My hat's off to you.

Mark's ego is tied up in bitcoin; and again, I am left not only hatless, but outright balding.

For myself, I will not invest in bitcoin for philosophical reasons (well, maybe religious; maybe mathematical/sociological... I'm kindof fuzzy there). I determined that long ago.

And I don't have the time to attempt your kind of program.

So I'm not invested with my ego in either of those two places. Yet I'm really interested in the sociological aspects of all this: thus my questions. And I'd like your viewpoint.

I don't think you've really answered any of the three; you defended the basis for your model. And I agree with you. But I would like to hear your thought out reasoning with regards to those three questions, in comparison and contrast to Mark's reasoning. I suspect there will be something of value there.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5530
trying again

Ok let me try again:

2) I am seeing good learning programs; but I am also seeing a lot of overturning. Can either of you indicate what you think is breaking down in the modeling?

So this is something I have to struggle with on the longer-dated time series.  Relationships between timeseries changes because the underlying world order changes.

For instance, China used to be nothing, and now its a superpower.  Including "the influence of the RMB on gold prices" on a long-dated timeseries (1975-present) is problematic since during one span of time (say 1986) it needs to be ignored, while in another span of time it probably should be watched closely.  If you're clever you can pre-weight its effects by China's GDP, but if you forget to do this and you just use the raw number, then what used to work back in the 80s just won't work today.  That, or your model will be much less accurate because it tries to "average" the relationship which makes nobody happy.

Likewise - simple example - how has the futures markets affected bitcoin's money flows?  I have no idea.  Will my model just up-and-break one day because the nature of the market changes dramatically?  Quite possibly.  The HFT guy was all about "code works one day, and stops working the next" because situation on the ground changes.  Goldman's trading desk opens - my model might just break at that point.

That's why I like to retrain my model every month or so, just to fold in any changes from the relatively recent trading activity.  That's the hope anyway.

----

In terms of the whole theme of this website, the original modeling was "exponential growth", which the website pointed out was a fallacy; taking into account limits of growth, seemed to do better. In the same way, what are the biggest factors that are not currently being taken into account, that you see?

Sure, that's long term stuff.  I don't do long-dated forecasting.  I suppose I could try, but my AI teaching technique uses training on "situations that we have seen before" and we've never gone through a "world peak resources" situation so that particular modeling approach won't work.  We'd need data from off-world.  Preferably lots of off-worlds.

"Above my pay grade."  I'm focused on shorter term time frames.  Perhaps that's because I'm writing daily commentary.  If I wrote monthly commentary, why, then that's what I'd be looking at.  :)

3) Is there a strategy to navigating the bull and bear traps of flash-and-crash? For instance, dropping 80% out and then reinvesting and unleveraged twenty percent?

Yeah.  Its my next thing to work on.  I call it "identifying interesting reversals".  I've played with it in gold and silver, but no home runs yet.  Its better than 50/50, but not accurate enough to make me happy.

I'm sure it can be done, at least for bitcoin anyway.  Concept is, model spits out a reversal on a particular candle that it thinks will lead to a good ROI (where "good" is a parameter you feed it).  Its more generalized candle code.  Of course it too is trained on history, so if conditions change, the model will work less well.

 

skipr's picture
skipr
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 9 2016
Posts: 155
semi-log plot

I don't know if this is any indication of where bitcoin is going, but I saw an interesting plot of bitcoin's price on a semi-log graph.  The line was, as expected, linear with a hiccup at each major downturn.  The % depth of those downturns reduced in magnitude as time marched on.

I don't understand those gold backed coins.  It seems to be a disadvantage if I can move value back and forth between BTC and gold via Vaultoro.com.

I wonder how long it will take for any hashgraph coins to appear.

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 25 2014
Posts: 880
Thanks, Dave.

Dave, now I see where you're coming from, and how you would've felt like you were addressing the questions in general.

And thanks for the take on the details of how the modeling breaks down.

Now for Mark's answer.

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3138
And We Have A Winner!

The results are in. 46% of respondents preferred Sunday January 7th at noon EST:

...so that's when we'll be holding this webinar.

An official announcement of the Bitcoin/crypto webinar will go up on the site shortly, including the link to register for it.

Thanks for your input in choosing the best date!

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 366
Curve Balls

Few thoughts & possible curve balls for Mark, Chris, Adam, Dave & the rest of us to consider that will help/hinder the DCs (Digital Currencies - I know Chris doesn't like the Crypto label)

Government responses. - If we can't ban it, let's tax it...
http://bitcoinist.com/cryptocurrency-investors-lose-tax-break/

Futures & ETF markets - Big Trading banks colluding for coordinating Flash crashes and short attacks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/22/cboe-files-to-list-6-bitcoin-etfs.html

https://www.coindesk.com/comes-futures-next-chapter-bitcoin/

Leveraged buying & Tax planning - Credit Cards, Remortgaging, New Lending products (ETH Lend & Salt)
http://fortune.com/2017/12/14/bitcoin-lenders/

Vast Energy required to power the blockchain mining calculations & increasing time taken to complete a transaction, especially if continues as forecast.
All the job losses caused from efficient smart contracts?

Rise of other DCs, I think many on focusing on BitCoin is understandable, but I predict that while it's average market cap will increase, its market share % will decrease over the next couple of years...

I still believe that DCs are in an early bubble, however it's reflecting a much larger bubble created by mismanaged monetary policy. With the number of DC participants being only 1% of the population and that doubling each year, is putting 5% of your investable net worth in well selected DCs a good insurance policy, like 10% net worth in PMs? Even for a relatively short period say the next 2-3 years?

Finally I know there's been a bit of spiky sparring on here on this subject, but I'm genuinely impressed that all parties are coming together to talk and examine this with analytical and scientific approaches, it's cool to respectfully disagree without resorting to being a fundamentalist. :-)

skipr's picture
skipr
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 9 2016
Posts: 155
a nice problem to have

A couple of years ago I had 15% of my net worth in PMs and 5% in BTC.  My BTC/ETH/DASH/etc is now 50% of my total.  My paranoid side wonders if I should cash most of it out.

Tycer's picture
Tycer
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 26 2009
Posts: 611
Cointracking.info primer

With the IRS attention to crypto and capital gains it has been suggested to use an app like cointracking.info to generate reports for your accountant. Can you give a primer on it and APIs and the ways different exchanges generate APIs?

Afridev's picture
Afridev
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2013
Posts: 144
Another one for the cryptocurrencies webinar

Another point that I'd find interesting for the webinar: how do you assess the strength of specific cryptocurrencies? What are the criteria and how do you grade these and why.

There is information on this on the internet, but I would be interested to have Mark's view

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments