Looks like all the bitcoiners and Blockchainers have left PP

mrees999
By mrees999 on Mon, Dec 4, 2017 - 1:27am

Well it looks like the popular kids in bitcoin and blockchain tech has gone on to greener pastures. I've been away a while and came back to see nobody's home, and haven't been for quite a while by the looks of things around here.

Queue the crickets.

I guess we'll see you in the future.

 

Mark Rees

Signing off.

 

20 Comments

Markhemp's picture
Markhemp
Status: Member (Offline)
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Posts: 14
Crickets

Hi Mark,

i try to read your writings where I can , I bought Eth and Ltc thanks to you but missed Btc as I thought it was expensive at the time at $1800, have I missed the boat or should I get aboard now?, where to next.

thanks for your knowledge

mark

 

robbie's picture
robbie
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Posts: 99
Chirp

It doesn’t make much sense does it? There should be a thriving discussion here.  It’s starting to feel like I walked into the wrong bar. Back to Medium and Reddit regrettably. 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Posts: 331
Selling into the Rally

I probably wouldn't get in now. It's gotten irrational with FOMO. I'm selling into this rally and waiting for a massive correction once the bit shorts come in with the futures trading about to begin. I plan to take SALT loans against my cheap bitcoin and let the loan pay for itself when the bitcoin price returns to the mean. And my loans against the crypto which I still own are tax-free. - No taxes on loans.  I'll have my cake and eat it too.

Salt tokens are a great arbitrage right now. Open market $7.50 - credit on the SALT platform = $25 each with no plans to lower the price. Expect open market to match the platform floor.

SALT Lending program goes live at end of December.  How's that for an easy 3x gain?

 

PaulJam's picture
PaulJam
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Posts: 54
Insanity

Thanks for your thoughts, Mark - after selling into the rally today, I was thinking about next step strategies.  Today was crazy - I kept upping my stops as the price rose, and finally a dip triggered my orders.  I missed riding all the way to the top because I had an appointment for the 90 minutes that all hell broke loose on GDAX, but I did OK all things considered.  The action today was something to behold.

I noted from one of his recent posts that Charles wrote about a process that he used to come up with a price target of 17K .  What seemed very far away as little as 10 days ago came astonishingly fast. 

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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tales of silver in 1980

This reminds me of the mania for silver back in 1980.   After doubling (10 -> 20) in 18 weeks, silver then proceeded to double in 4 weeks, with a $10 trading range in the last 1-week period.

Its that slope inflection in the last period that provides the clue to where you are in the process.

That's where I think we are in this phase of bitcoin.

Even on a log chart, the last 2 days, bitcoin has just gone vertical.  You can see the mania reflected in the upside breakout.  From what I understand, this last phase doesn't last too long.  Could it double?  It could.  It could also collapse by 30-50% too.  Things don't just move comfortably sideways from a peak like this.

I wonder how my code will handle the reversal.  When will it say to bail out?  Since its a trend-follower, it isn't built to deal with these sorts of peaks.

Candle code says 67% that yesterday's "closing white marubozu" marks a top.  RSI-7 is 98.57.  That's just crazy.

For me, this is training for - what I believe - gold will go through at some point in the future.  I'm using bitcoin to help me learn when I should get out - what does it feel like, what does the chart do, etc.

thatchmo's picture
thatchmo
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Posts: 422
Sell....how?

So I bought 1/4 BTC back earlier this year when it was at $1300, mainly just to test the water and play with the Ledger Wallet that I bought on Mark's recommendation.  Then I got too busy, and BTC got "too expensive", and I bought no more.  But backslid a bit by buying a bit of ETH, so now I have about .15 BTC.  OK, ignorant question:  How do I "sell" my BTC at this assumed peak?  Shapeshift to ETH?  I'm not hooked up to any exchanges- Coinbase can't do business in Hawaii....Thanks, Aloha, Steve.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Posts: 5466
We watched Tulips in real time!

My sense was that we all got to watch tulips in real time.  Very exciting!

I don't know where anything goes from here, only that the technology of blockchain and distributed ledgers are here to stay.

Like everyone, I have no idea how humans and this new idea are going finally settle out, but barring some form of grid or internet disruption, we can safely predict a vast new ecosystem of digital experiments.

There will be winners and losers.  History suggests that the first idea out of the gate (Bitcoin) is very unlikely to be the ultimate winner.  After all, we should remember, that just like fiat money there's no intrinsic value to any digital 'coin' just what we humans ascribe to it.  Also similarly, producing unlimited quantities of these representations can be done virtually for free.

I am enormously enamored with the idea of the digital representations being tied to something tangible.  Say, for example, every barrel of oil that comes out of the ground has a coin attached to it that then is consumed along with the oil.  To burn oil you'd need to have access to these coins.  Then energy and money are linked, as they really should be.  

Same for food.  Or gold, or copper.

At any rate, huge congratulations for everyone who both rode this wave and got out along the way.   I don't know where Bitcoin goes next, but the massive blow off super-exponential top coupled with this textbook H&S top says the excitement is over for a while and the corrective phase (along with tears for many) has begun.

 

(And yes, I am jealous that bitcoin still trades like a market with humans involved creating reliable patterns and blow-off tops and all the rest.  Computers have ruined all the other markets, and I trust they will ruin Bitcoin too.  So the question becomes, "where next?")

ckessel's picture
ckessel
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Posts: 462
Bitcoin pronosticating

My 'guess' is that this minor drop is equivalent to Isacc Newtons first 'exit' point. When BC reaches 40k then get ready. I predict this bubble will make all previous bubbles look like mist in the morning.

Coop

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Posts: 331
One trick to get your money from bitcoin to Hawaii.

Thatchmo - You can spend you bitcoin on Gold and have it send to you.  Then I suppose there are places in Hawaii to sell your gold back for cash.

 

Here's one place, but I know there are others:

https://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/buying-physical-metals/bitcoin/

Also there are other online places to buy and sell like:

https://www.glidera.io/

 

 

Good luck, see you on the upside :-)

 

thc0655's picture
thc0655
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#Metoo

Davefairtex wrote:

For me, this is training for - what I believe - gold will go through at some point in the future.  I'm using bitcoin to help me learn when I should get out - what does it feel like, what does the chart do, etc.

That's just what I was thinking.  At this point (and things could change a lot) if this was gold going from $6,000 to $10,000/oz, I hope I would've sold 70% of mine by now.  The same for silver.  I wasn't paying attention back in 1974-1980, but I am now, and I hope I will have the strength of my convictions to start selling into what looks like the blow off top.

And lucky me! Today was my day to dollar-cost average and I got gold on sale.  Not to be greedy, but I sure am hoping some of the people like Harry Dent are right and that we'll see $700-$1,000 gold in the not too distant future.  I've got the truck idling in the garage.

If I had a crystal ball I would have bought Bitcoin early in 2017 and would be selling into this "rally."  But, you know what, I don't feel like I've missed out.  I'm just sitting here with a bowl of popcorn waiting for the Bitcoin crash (and I don't mean $3,000 down).  I love a good fireworks display, though I hate to see people suffer.

From the movie "The Big Short" when two investors who are shorting the housing market in 2008 are celebrating their profits:

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Posts: 331
The big bitcoin short

I’ve been watching and studying the crypto world for almost five years and I can tell you that other than when it was just an academic study, the most it has dropped in value is about 70% from it’s high (daily high, not hourly). If we call $18,000 the high, a 70% drop worst-case scenario would put it at $5,400 eventually.  That would likely be very short lived if it makes it that low because 70% drops where when there was a handful of exchanges and almost no liquidity. More realistic would be bottom at 50% or about 9k.

I think there is still a WALL of money chomping at the bit to chase these highs and the best investment of the last decade (probably last century). A lot of people are envious or missed the boat (those not taking my advice here for the last four years).

I still think we’ll be at $40k by this time next year. $9,000 entry point is still a pretty nice return. I still have a lot of other tricks up my sleeve that I won’t just give away. Review my posts to check my accuracy.

Follow me on the Facebook private group for 'watchmywallets' for more insights.

 

debu's picture
debu
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Posts: 218
Richer than Croesus

Well, now that CHS is richer than Croesus I expect he will be buying the island of Lanai from Larry Ellison and holing up there for goodsmiley

So long and thanks for all the fish (i.e. blog posts)...

reflector's picture
reflector
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Posts: 265
RE: One trick to get your money from bitcoin to Hawaii.
mrees999 wrote:

Thatchmo - You can spend you bitcoin on Gold and have it send to you.  Then I suppose there are places in Hawaii to sell your gold back for cash.

 

Here's one place, but I know there are others:

https://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/buying-physical-metals/bitcoin/

Also there are other online places to buy and sell like:

https://www.glidera.io/

Good luck, see you on the upside :-)

Apmex just announced they are accepting BTC now

https://www.apmex.com/faq/bitcoin

 

providentmetals accepts bitcoin, litecoin, and dogecoin as well

New_Life's picture
New_Life
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Posts: 114
Cryptos for Chris?

Chris, I do appreciate your thoughts on the recent BTC vertical action reflecting past bubbles. Yes, the irrational exuberance is ever increasing, but why is that? Would you say the same for Gold or would you consider the world was simply waking up & claiming it was money again?

When do you envisage having some % of your wealth in some form of CC (Crypto Currency).? (doesn't have to be BitCoin)

Mark - I'm still hanging around here too, I'm glad you're still contributing to PP, appreciate your time is even more limited now, but it would be a real shame for you to completely leave..

DaveF - appreciate your continued TA on PMs, BTC & ETH

In terms of hoping for the same % uptick in price, HODLers of PMs may wish Max to be correct...

For myself I now intend to rediversify my assets across fiat, PMs and some very selective CCs.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Posts: 331
You think cryptocurrencies are tulips or no intrinic value?

You think bitcoin and crypto-currencies have no intrinsic value?  Think again.

This is an updated view of an article I wrote for Bitcoin Magazine in 2014 found here:

Since then, it has been read hundreds of thousands of times and translated in many language.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/you-say-bitcoin-has-no-intrinsic-value-twenty-two-reasons-to-think-again-1399454061/

Since then, it has been read hundreds of thousands of times and translated in many languages.

So we can agree on the same terms with regard to the meaning of Intrinsic Value I will refer to Wikipedia’s reference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_theory_of_value

An intrinsic theory of value (also called theory of objective value) is any theory of value in economics which holds that the value of an object, good or service, is intrinsic or contained in the item itself. Most such theories look to the process of producing an item, and the costs involved in that process, as a measure of the item’s intrinsic value. .. all values are ultimately subjective, a range of reasonable or sustainable fair values for an asset or good may be estimated using objective measures.

^1 Merriam Webster defines Intrinsic: belonging to the essential nature or constitution of a thing. Example: the intrinsic brightness of a star

So the takeaways:  All values are subjective. Intrinsic just means the properties comes from within.

 

How can one thing be priced so differently by two people?  A glass of water probably isn’t worth very much to a guy standing in a river. But how much gold would be given for that same glass of water to somebody near death in the desert?  This is why the value of all things is subjective.

 

My point is the value of something is the highest price somebody will give you at that moment. Now the crypto currency is an asset class onto its own – we must evaluate all coins that are a derivative of the original bitcoin, which is essentially the first app. Nobody would be talking about blockchain technology if the first app was a world-wide central bank for the earth that spit out magic internet money now valued at over 260 billion. (Higher than Goldman Sachs).

 

Again, a pivot point came from bitcoin hearings In November 2013. http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-24986264

This was the point that they decided to not try to squelch bitcoin because of the promise of the technology. If it was a tulip bulb with no value – why would the just not try to kill it?  Yet they had over 200,000 bitcoin that they sold back to the public – slowly as to not disrupt the market. Did they treat bitcoin with the utmost respect? These were the highest members of our country, treating bitcoin with kid gloves to see it grow.  Tulips?

 

If they had not, would have massive innovation that is taking place in the blockchain space now? With that out of the way, here’s many reasons bitcoin\crypto currency \ digital assets have intrinsic value.

 

1.        It transcends Nations, Politics, religions, cultures, and regulations. Laws and borders are man-made. They are always shifting and based on opinion, family heritage and traditions going back thousands of years. A new world on the internet does not recognize borders. Public blockchains are permissionless to build layers of innovation like the internet itself. People call cryptocurrency the internet of money. As money and banking were the least affected by the revolution of the internet – web3 (based on blockchain) will now disrupt that segment.

 

2.       It requires no middleman, no trusted third party. Third parties can be corruptible with the power to hide, erase, refuse and censor transactions. Even gold and silver require a middleman when you transact anything further than your arm’s length. In history, this has proven disastrous. You can now use crypto currencies like long distance cash anywhere in the world in seconds. Nobody can censor it, stop it, hide, erase or anything else. This cannot happen with other electronic forms of payment where you really are paying for a corporation to follow through with their own 3% tax. They have final say in what is allowed to purchase and can reverse or lock one out of their own accounts.  How is this like a tulip?

 

3.       It is transparent. Every transaction on bitcoin and other blockchains can be used to hold people in power responsible by insisting they use public addresses everybody in the world can follow. This could effectively end corruption – or severally limit it. This aspect was used to jail two federal agents that busted the infamous “Silk Road’ Dark web marketplace. When the agents themselves tried to steal millions in funds – the transparent blockchain that can’t be erased – lead authorities right to them. They now sit in jail. How much corruption goes on in banking and government because authority figures keep records private and in silos? Can a tulip to that?

 

4.       We can now have programmable money. Introducing the ‘if – then’ statement for setting times\rules for which value can be transferred to the appropriate parties through smart contracts. These tokens must have intrinsic value to be recognized as payment in full rather than a debt fiat created through more debt. Etherum and others have entire eco-systems being built around these features. Tens of thousands of companies are now using this as the base layer of rebuilding their businesses, Including Microsoft, Cisco, HP and hundreds more. This has gone far beyond just speculation being the source of value. This is intrinsic qualities of these tokens based on the networks that create and transport them.

 

5.       This can unbank the banked.  As we see how corruptible banks are and have become one with a government, we can give people an option to skip the banks entirely. Person to person loans, crowdfunding, for loans, instant cash payments, and loans based on the equity of your crypto are now possible without the need for traditional banks. We can also bank the unbanked by using hard wallets and smartphones for people to be their own bank. Funds can be unable to confiscate. In corrupt countries that hyperinflate or ruin their own economies-  this gives a common person equal rights. It’s the common man’s bazooka.

 

6.        It doesn’t require bank accounts with proper identification, credit reports, and permissions. Banks can restrict and stop anybody from using their services essentially giving themselves power over the people. Governments are working on their own digital currencies which will still remain fiat but with additional surveillance. Neutral open currencies will still prevail. Particularly those with additional privacy features (i.e. Monero) that make it impossible for corrupt officials and governments to stop them. It is of the people and for the people. Tulips did not provide privacy \ instant world transferable ownership.

 

7.       As it is a payment in full rather than a promise to pay – it doesn’t require one to give up their identity which is often hacked and used later for identity theft. How often do we hear of another security breach. A terrorist can purchase these lists to target ones they don’t like. Governments also use these for tracking and surveillance. It’s just a matter of time before they are used against us – if history is any guide.

 

8.       Cryptocurrencies are just numbers. Even when lawmakers make rules that you can’t carry undeclared funds across borders when the funds live in the cloud in a public blockchain – you technically are not. If you’ve emailed yourself numbers, or put them in a locked file on a cloud drive like Google drive, there is nothing preventing you from using those to create a new spendable wallet anywhere in the world. Not even a current internet connection is required as you can relay payment information through the phone, email, Morse code – smoke signals to somebody that does have a connection.  It actually can be unstoppable as it adjusts and grows like water, it follows the path of least resistance and adapts. If the people want it, they will find a way to make it happen despite what authorities would like.

 

9.       Streaming money.  Machine to machine payments is a new paradigm. Digital currencies can be measure in micro-cents. Units of electricity can be assigned value. Bandwidth \ radio waves, data packets can all be assigned a value and machines can negotiate themselves for competition and fair pricing. Millions of transactions per second are next door. Everything will be tokenized and given value on the blockchains. This is just one more intrinsic utility that people place value. The utility is the value. How is this like a tulip?

 

10.   It has an entire eco-system worldwide with hundreds of thousands of programmers and is the next wave of computer science. And is an exploding field in hundreds of categories from healthcare to identity and reputation. Could this have been possible when the Senate met in 2013 and tried to stop bitcoin?

 

11.   It is not just money – because it has many uses – it can be tokenized and traded – anything can be a currency. Civic coin provides for worldwide identity. Tokenized and used in cross-platforms to protect against human trade. Because people can swap those for bitcoin or other currencies – will the government try to stop it?  How about the BAT token that upends traditional fraud in online advertisement and pays people for their attention rather than shady middlemen?  Because people trade them for value, they also become a currency. SALT Membership tokens can be traded on the open market and purchase for dollars. They are not a currency, but traded and valued as if they were. Who is going to outlaw membership tokens? There are thousands of crypto tokens with dozens more created each week. Most will likely fail on the simple aspect of supply and demand. Anybody that thinks every token that has multiple uses will be banned because it is tradable, like collectible cards, hasn’t even begun to research this new paradigm.

 

One may find value in one or more of these qualities. The value is the highest price one places on the future possibilities as many of these functions are still being built. There is a lot of speculation and price discovery going on as we continue to weigh the possibilities. If we compare these possibilities with that of gold\silver and fiat, which one will have the brightest future based on intrinsic qualities?  Only those with poor understanding continue to their silly reference to Tulips. Understanding the value of these units is complex and requires effort. But speak to anybody who understands the technology and possibilities – and sees how many of the knowledgeable would call them tulips.  If you find one – run the other way. They are trying to sell you something.

 

This list could be another 50 items but hopefully, you get the idea. If you didn’t know these things, it’s time for you to do your own research. It might prove to be very profitable. Or are you still going to hang on to your outdated thinking and rear view mirrors?

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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Posts: 4849
bitcoin is a share

Bitcoin is a share in an operational, client-server software service, specifically a very simple shared, open transaction database, along with a collection of clients and running servers, as well as a share in any of revisions/descendants to  that software system.  It is also a share of a brand.

Does the share have value?

An ecosystem of people willing to run servers and develop clients provides value just on that basis alone.  Constructing all that takes hard work, and is difficult to construct consensus, get everyone on board to agree, etc.

So there is intrinsic value to all that.

What price do you assign a share in this particular operational software system called "bitcoin"?   People are struggling with that now.  If the whole market crashes, I think people will have a lot less spare cash to dedicate to owning shares of transactional software systems.  They'll probably be focused on paying rent, buying food, and whatnot.

That doesn't make the share valueless.  But it probably does make its price go down.

There is also new system development risk.  Think "myspace".  Anyone remember myspace?  If a new software system comes along and provides much greater utility (and, most importantly, everyone agrees that it IS more valuable) then the price that the market assigns to the bitcoin software system will plummet.

If - somehow - the new system is truly anonymous, if its faster (i.e. no delays), substantially cheaper to use (you can, say, buy coffee with it), and if it uses less electricity, then something like that might supercede bitcoin.  Bitcoin might get myspaced.  Or "nokia-ed".

The mechanism of (effectively) selling a share of an operational software system is a really interesting new paradigm.  Its a way to monetize free software and the collection of people that are willing to run the servers for it.  In the past, people would run SETI at home for free.  Now, they can do something similar, except they get paid for it.

How much of bitcoin's price is speculation?  How much is real brand value?  How much is expected future value from the current underlying utility + all future revisions to this software system?   And how much is simply a symptom of a whole lot of liquidity?

For me, my answer is, I have no freaking clue.   :)

There is underlying value, I'm convinced of that - both in the model overall, and in the individual coins - which are actually just brands that represent a group of people that have agreed to devote resources dedicating to providing that service to the larger internet community.

But it all comes down to price.  Ultimately, I'm just not smart enough to come up with the answer of "is this a good price" at any given moment.   I will let the market tell me what the price is.  That's why I wrote all that code.

I am guessing that if we have a deflationary crash, the *coins will drop in price along with everything else.  Faster, probably, because most of them aren't specifically necessary.  In times of recession, prices of "consumer discretionary" items always drop, while prices of "consumer staples" do well.  In the upcoming recession, if a coin has to do with a "staple, must-have" thing for people, it will do ok.  If it doesn't, then it won't.

Right now there is a shitload of debt denominated in currency.  Next recession, that will spike demand for currency.  Everyone will demand currency in order to pay down their debt.  (Who wants to lose house, car, business, building, etc?  Those will probably supercede desire of owning a share in bitcoin.).  That will - probably - suck liquidity out of most coins.  Of course if there is a hyperinflationary response by the central planners, then the price of the "strongly branded" *coins will skyrocket, as will gold and everything else.

(strongly branded: think "coke" vs "RC Cola."  "bitcoin" vs "litecoin."  What is litecoin anyway?  People only have so much bandwidth to give to a subject.  I wrapped my brain around bitcoin.  Why should I care about litecoin?  Market tells me I shouldn't.)

Anyhow, that's just my guess.  I will let my code tell me what's really going on.  It is almost always smarter than I am.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4849
how far can it drop?

Mark-

You said that the farthest bitcoin has ever dropped was 70%.

I think your instincts for bitcoin are pretty good, based on what you've seen to date.

I'm going to point out, bitcoin hasn't been through a recession yet.  You have no idea how it will perform during a true deflationary period.  My guess is, money will flow from all asset classes to "something I can use to pay down my debt."

My guess is based on an extensive historical record.  The usual pattern during recessions is, the fun stuff that everyone was ok buying during the boom, is mostly abandoned in order to make the car, rent, and house payments.  Kids have to eat, if you have a job, you still have to drive to work, you need a place to live, and once things get iffy, all the non-necessities get thrown right out the window.

And as much as you like bitcoin, it isn't food, housing, or transportation.

Of course, if there were house and transportation asset debt denominated in bitcoin, then it too would scream higher during recessions.  But there isn't.  Nobody has their home mortgage denominated in bitcoin.  Nobody has a car loan denominated in bitcoin.  As a result of this, the recessionary demand for bitcoin will be negative.  I.e. it will get sold.

And I'm guessing the drawdown for bitcoin could be more than 70%.

It reminds me of what one of the PP guests was saying on a podcast: "There are traders today who have never seen a market actually drop."

Every single bitcoin trader has never seen what happens to bitcoin during a recession.  Same concept, same vulnerability.

thatchmo's picture
thatchmo
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 14 2008
Posts: 422
Sell BTC

Thanks Mark and reflector.  I don't know why I didn't think of those options- I'd just received an email from APMEX offering gold for BTC yesterday....That's a pretty interesting- and bold, given volatility of late- offer on their part, seems to me.   Getting and ounce and a half for a $300 investment 8 months ago looks pretty good.  Will I be able to bear reading the previous statement in 6 months?  Aloha, Steve.

ps-  You know, the whole electricity consumption thing with cryptos is hard for me to swallow, morally, ecologically....

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 331
Wasteful Electricity

What they don't tell you is that China created these giant dams for empty cities that they used to fuel their boom. Many have read and seen TV reports on them.  So the dams are doing their job but providing no electricity that is being used. So they built giant Bitcoin mines there to put the wasted electricity to use. 

Might as well do something with it - and it protects the network.  Then you see many in Iceland and cold volcanic areas where they tap into geothermal activity to use the clean energy and natural cooling to perform both functions. So you have to take the whole electricity used with a grain of salt.

 

 

Markhemp's picture
Markhemp
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 29 2013
Posts: 14
Just Wow

And it's off again $16,597 as i write this in the UK.

Doh I'm not bitter!

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