PM Daily Market Commentary - 11/30/2017

By davefairtex on Fri, Dec 1, 2017 - 2:40am

Gold dropped -9.30 [-0.72%] to 1277.60 on moderately heavy volume, while silver fell -0.11 [-0.69%] on moderate volume. The buck moved down slightly – currency was not involved in today's PM decline.

Gold fell for most of the day, finally making its low in the afternoon in New York at 1273.10. Buyers did pull prices back up a few dollars into the close. Candle print was a swing high – but the code assigned only a 37% chance of this being a bearish reversal. Forecaster dropped -0.30 to -0.53, which is a relatively strong downtrend. Gold did manage to avoid breaking its uptrend line, and the volume today was lighter than yesterday. One would expect if managed money were bailing out wholesale, the volume would increase, but that's not what is going on. Instead, it looks as though selling is lessening up as price drops.

Gold is now through its 9 and 50 MA lines, which is bearish.

COMEX GC open interest fell by -3,138 contracts.

Rate rise chances (Dec 2017) fell to 90%.

Silver's also fell for much of the day, making a low to 16.34, but not long after the low was made, silver spiked higher, resulting in a 3.5k volume (and 8 cent) 5-minute bar. It was very odd. Silver ended up keeping the rebound into the close. The long black candle ended up having a 50% chance of being a bullish reversal, probably because of that rebound. Forecaster also rebounded, up +0.25 to -0.57; that's still a downtrend. Volume in silver declined today from yesterday.  Silver appears to be right at support.

COMEX SI open interest fell by -2,342 contracts.

The gold/silver ratio fell -0.02 to 77.62. That's neutral.

The miners were virtually unchanged, with GDX off -0.13% on moderately heavy volume, and GDXJ dropped -0.19% on moderately light volume. Miners moved lower along with the metal, but after the lows in the afternoon, the miners rebounded, mostly erasing the day's loss. GDX's long white candle had a 46% chance of being a bullish reversal. Forecasters: GDX +0.13 to -0.22, GDXJ +0.16 to -0.22. HUI unfortunately does not see the same thing: it dropped -0.11 to -0.33.

Miners are holding up surprisingly well. It does not appear that the drops in PM are causing any sort of major selling in the shares, which I take to be a bullish sign for PM overall. Remember the days when small drops in gold would result in miner plunges of 3-5%? Contrast that with what happened today: dip buying. We saw dip buying today in GDX. That's a pretty strong outcome, what with gold down -0.79%. Additionally, the strong volume in GDX is another hint of a possible reversal.  Miners are right at support.

Today, the GDXJ:GDX ratio was unchanged, and the GDX:$GOLD ratio rose. That's bullish.

Platinum climbed +0.30%, palladium dropped -0.59%, and copper rose +0.11%. All 3 other metals remain in downtrends, but they are not particularly severe and could reverse with one strong day.

The buck fell -0.11 [-0.12%] to 92.76. While there was a fair amount of movement intraday, it netted out to mostly nothing. The Senate version of the tax cut bill is set for a vote tomorrow. I would have expected more of a move in the buck out of this news. Still, the forecaster issued a buy signal, rising +0.22 to +0.02.  The buck has yet to break its downtrend line.  I'm not sure if this buy signal is real, or just a head fake.

Crude also bounced around, but ended the day almost flat, +0.03 to 57.42. OPEC agreed to extend their production cuts another 12 months. Crude's forecaster moved up +0.14 to -0.02; that's almost a buy signal. Crude is now just below its 9 MA, but my sense is that it is preparing for another move higher. There was virtually no follow-through after Monday's big drop, and the larger uptrend remains intact.

SPX charged higher again today – MSM credits “progress on tax cuts” again – up +21.51 [+0.82%] to 2647.58, another new all time high. However the peak was actually +31, with SPX losing 10 points into the close; the opening white marubozu candle had a 57% chance of marking the top. Volume was immense. Forecaster moved up +0.12 to +0.79. Industrials did best today (XLI:+1.71%) along with energy (XLE:+1.50%), while utilities brought up the rear (XLU:+0.34%).

VIX jumped +0.58 to 11.28. If tax cuts pass, might that be a “sell the news” event?

TLT fell -0.33%; it was off a lot more but bounced back as SPX fell at end of day. High wave candle had a 37% chance of being a bullish reversal, but TLT's forecaster dropped -0.40 to -0.58. TY also fell, down -0.20%.  Bonds remain in a downtrend.

JNK fell -0.03%, more or less going nowhere. JNK has moved sideways over the past week. Is it out of momentum? JNK chopping sideways while SPX makes new highs is probably a bad sign for JNK.

CRB fell -0.91%; all 5 sectors fell, led by livestock (-1.31%).

So where's the big PM sell-off? Judging from the miners today, there isn't one – this is a buy-the-dip opportunity! Its not often we see GDX remain even on a day with gold off $9. Often the overly-delicate miners collapse whenever gold plunges, but they aren't doing that right now.

The declining volume in gold and silver is perplexing too. Normally we'd see managed money panicking out of their positions at this point, especially in silver, and that would show up in the volume bars. But that's not happening either. And platinum actually moved higher on the day. Why isn't it selling off? And there is the curious bounce mid-afternoon of silver in New York. What was that about?

Well, we'll get more information tomorrow.

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davefairtex's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5736
discount crypto

My faster-reacting intraday forecasters have mostly tripped to "buy" - they were all saying "sell" yesterday.

The longer-term daily forecaster remains in "buy".


Discount crypto!!

davefairtex's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5736
flynn allegedly "prepared to testify"

ABC news is reporting (via a Flynn "confidant") that he is prepared to testify that Trump ordered him to talk with the Russians.

This sent SPX down 40 points, the buck tumbled, and gold and silver spiked higher.

Flynn pled guilty to "lying to the FBI".

Note to self: don't lie to the FBI.


Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 26 2016
Posts: 385

Should have some nice shooting star reversal candles for PMs today, especially the miners.  They've just about given back all of their gains.  Equities will probably finish green today.

lambertad's picture
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 31 2013
Posts: 186
Corrupt policing the corrupted

Do as I say, not as I do. That's how I'd classify the FBI saying don't lie to us. 

Perfect example is the article above. The FBI essentially lies to the public by concealing how much they are paying informants through different tricks and it's all in order to set up the lie if it comes to a trial. The people being paid are mostly criminals, so I assume it's safe to believe their moral character is questionable. If they're being paid up to 500K per year, do you think they may be fabricating evidence to keep getting paid?

Ahh, it's just taxpayer money anyway, who cares. 

It's a wonder more people don't catch on to this stuff and start becoming career snitches. 

A special agent-in-charge has the authority to pay each of his office’s informants up to $100,000 per fiscal year. However, informants may earn substantially more as long as each additional $100,000 is approved by successively higher levels within the bureau. With deputy director approval, according to the policy guide, an informant may earn more than $500,000 per year. 

In addition to compensation, an informant may be eligible for 25 percent of the net value of any property forfeited as a result of the investigation, up to $500,000 per asset

That’s how the informant payment game is played, Monteilh said, and the FBI is a sober and willing player. “Everything they do is based on covering something up if it goes to trial,” Monteilh said. “They always told me that 98 percent of cases do not go to trial, but if indeed this one does, then all these payments are for reimbursements.”



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