PM Daily Market Commentary - 11/28/2017

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Wed, Nov 29, 2017 - 4:18am

On Friday gold fell -0.90 [-0.07%] to 1293.30 on extremely heavy volume, while silver dropped -0.20 [-1.15%] on extremely heavy volume also. The buck staged a reasonably strong rally [+0.41%], which didn't help matters, but was not the proximate cause of the plunge in silver.

It is getting to be a daily routine. Silver was smacked at 9:41, and then again at 10:00 – I'd guess this has something to do with the London silver fix, with the banksters doing their usual trick of smashing prices in order to rip off their customers - possibly having to do with an option expiry.  The reason why is a guess, but the mechanism was very clear. Gold and platinum were both tugged lower by the assault, but soon rebounded, in spite of the dollar rally.

Gold mostly moved sideways throughout the day, hit briefly by the assault on silver at 9:40, but mostly bouncing back, ending the day about where it started. Print was a bearish harami, which was actually neutral. Forecaster moved up +0.12 to +0.14 - a bit more firm uptrend. Gold continues to edge higher; in spite of today's slight drop, gold did well especially in the face of a decent-sized rally in the buck. It really feels like there is a strong bid underneath gold right now.

COMEX GC open interest fell by -12,729 contracts.

Rate rise chances (Dec 2017) remains at 93%.

As mentioned silver was clocked at 9:41, and again at 10:00. These two assaults accounted for the drop in silver today. Volume was massive. Someone sure seems intent on smashing silver whenever it rises above 17. So far, there has been no mass liquidation by managed money, since the price drops last only one day. Silver printed a confirmed bearish doji, which was neutral. I'm working on silver's forecaster right now – the current version is at -0.55, which is a strong downtrend.

COMEX SI open interest fell by -4,292 contracts.

The gold/silver ratio rose +0.83 to 76.91. That's bearish.

The miners fell, with GDX down -0.52% on moderate volume, and GDXJ off -0.71% on very light volume. GDX managed to make an ew high early in the session, but then sold off for most of the day, closing at the low. Candle prints were nothing special. GDX forecaster fell -0.36 to read -0.13 (and a sell signal), while GDXJ dropped -0.20 to read -0.20, also a sell signal. I've been working on new forecasters for these two also. HUI agrees – it also issued a sell signal today.

Today, the GDXJ:GDX ratio fell, as did the GDX:$GOLD ratio. That's bearish.

Platinum edged up +0.12%, palladium jumped +2.09% and made a new multi-year high, while copper fell -1.10%. Palladium has been a twobagger since the lows in 2016. rose +0.83%, platinum is in a solid uptrend (forecaster: +0.54, above all 3 moving averages), while copper printed a swing high, its forecaster issued a sell signal, and it dropped below its 9 MA.

The buck rose +0.38 [+0.41%] to 92.98. Candle print was a swing low, which had a 53% chance of being a reversal. Forecaster jumped +0.11 to -0.63; since its a slow-moving 5 day forecaster, it will take some time to turn bullish. The buck remains below its 9 MA. Part of the excitement today was Trump's nominee for the Fed – Powell – who by all accounts made all the right noises, especially for the banks: “the current rules are already tough enough.” Plus, Powell thinks a rate increase is likely for December.   The Senate version of tax cuts made it out of committee, with a vote by the full Senate coming as soon as Thursday. Will a stealth Obamacare-repeal be in the bill or not? Who knows.  It all was dollar-bullish.

Crude dipped -0.10 [-0.17%] to 57.75, with most of the hit coming after-hours on a somewhat bearish-looking API inventory report (oil +1.8m, gasoline -1.5m, distillates -+2.7m). The spinning top candle was a bearish continuation, and the forecaster dropped -0.33 to -0.41. We have an OPEC meeting coming up on Thursday, and the EIA report out tomorrow.

SPX shot higher, up +25.62 [+0.98%] which is a new all time high. The white marubozu/strong line was a bullish continuation. Forecaster shot up +0.38 to +0.84 – a very strong uptrend. Financials screamed higher (XLF:+2.60%) while tech did worst (XLK:+0.30%). It looks like a combination of “tax cuts” plus “Powell will be soft on the bankers” today. A new set of lucky winners from the Washington Lottery.

VIX rose +0.16 to 10.03.

TLT rose +0.13%, trading in a fairly wide range, printing a long-legged doji which ended up being neutral. Forecaster remains at -0.05, which is a slight downtrend. TY fell slightly, but still looks as though its ready to break higher. Its hard to know which way bonds will jump.

JNK rose +0.27%, making a new high, which invalidates yesterday's reversal pattern. JNK is showing risk on once more.

CRB fell -0.22%, with 3 of 5 sectors falling, led once more by industrial metals (-1.69%).

So gold is looking increasingly strong, with platinum moving higher in support, while silver is weak but only because of the constant, daily assaults.  Miner forecasters have issued sell signals - but they remain at the top of their recent trading ranges.  Gold in Euros issued a buy signal today - it is now in an uptrend too.

The bid underneath gold seems both strong and consistent.  Can it survive a dollar rally?  That I don't know.  I'd say it did well today given the breakout in equities, and the general risk-on sentiment.

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13 Comments

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5569
CRIMEX in action same time very day day this week.

If you were in charge of a ""market"" that sold off hard in the same way, at the same time every day, do you think you might have some sort of actionable evidence of manipulation?  Well of course you would.

Unless you were the ex-Goldman Sucks folks in charge of the CFTC which cannot, for this life of it, find anything wrong with ""markets"" that look like this:

140 tonnes dumped in seconds to create this fine, fine moment of "price discovery."

The powers that be are either negligent in their lack of concern or actively cheering this behavior on because it serves their purposes, no different from a company actively seeking to put the final few members of a species to death so they don't have to be concerned with their troubling presence during the next phase of whatever project they have in mind.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5063
PM sell-off

FWIW, the downdraft today looked a bit different than the other days.  The breakdown looked a bit more natural.  Not saying it was - just that it looked different.

And in looking at the rest of the day - it appears that the bids underneath gold and silver have vanished.  Especially silver.  Its in liquidation.  I suspect after a lot of effort, the commercials have finally convinced managed money to start bailing out for real.

If we don't get a recovery by end of day, we're in a run-don't-walk situation in PM.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5569
Bitcrash...

This is going to make a potentially ugly candle formation.

Ouch!!

That's going to leave a mark on all entrants to the game who jumped in (or deeper in) in the last 24 hours.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5569
Bitcrash update...FAST market!

Now down to $9,282...  2:45 pm

Now up to $9,505  ...   2:50 pm

Now up to $9,602  3:03 pm

Now up to $9,696  3:15 pm

Now up to $9,846  3:17 pm

/Time passes.../

Bitcoin has gone back over $10k.  Now back under again,...

Here at 7:40 pm it is at $9,745


Sure wish I could arb these exchanges....$500/coin seems very worth it!


 

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 2 2010
Posts: 1428
Gold is...

Gold to the Politician is like the Cross is to Dracula.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5063
btc update: 2017-11-29

Lots of excitement today - bitcoin broke 10k, then 11k, and then reversed.  The northern doji candle print was given a 74% chance of being a bearish reversal (maxing out the negative rating for this candle type), but the forecaster has yet to issue a sell signal.

ETH on the other hand...it had a 28% trading range, the forecaster did issue a sell signal, and the "confirmed bearish NR7" (not exactly the pattern I was expecting) had a 75% chance of being a reversal pattern.

The crazy moves in the coins often maxes out the candle code ratings - that's why I'm not 100% sure I can trust it.  What is crazy for equities happens relatively often for bitcoin - and ETH.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5063
arbing exchanges

Bitfinex is out of whack because they don't have a banking connection, and that makes arb-ing the exchange vastly more difficult.

Supposedly, some group of well-connected people can move money in and out of bitfinex (see the raft of tart commentary by author "bitfinex'd") but the common folk cannot.

During today, there were lots of opportunities to make 6% between some of the exchanges.  Only - it takes 10 minutes to send a *coin, and ... who knows what price would have done in that amount of time?

Still, over time, presumably it would make you money.  I'm guessing my friends did very well today.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 372
FOMO to blame

Fear of missing out as hundreds of thousands sign up for new accounts. BITCOIN can't handle that kind of volume. One by one the exchanges got overloaded and were intermittent. That started a panic with newbies and the sold. Seasoned vets laughed as we know to HODL "hold on for dear life" in crypto culture. It was a GREAT day to get discounted crypto. We got to love the skittish who will soon learn from their mistakes. By then we will have a new wave of newbies to count on for new discounts.

It's the circle of life in the land of crypto.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 372
Romo to blame

Fear of missing out as hundreds of thousands sign up for new accounts. BITCOIN can't handle that kind of volume. One by one the exchanges got overloaded and were intermittent. That started a panic with newbies and the sold. Seasoned vets laughed as we know to HODL "hold on for dear life" in crypto culture. It was a GREAT day to get discounted crypto. We got to love the skittish who will soon learn from their mistakes. By then we will have a new wave of newbies to count on for new discounts.

It's the circle of life in the land of crypto..

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5063
discounted crypto

Inspired by mark, I went looking for discounted crypto.  I found some!

I think he does have the whole fear of missing out thing down perfectly.  As long as there are newbies with money coming in, prices will continue to drive higher.  Its all about money flows.

The lack of a banking connection makes arb very difficult specifically at bitfinex - but there are also market inefficiencies, as well as banking restrictions in specific countries that have to be "worked around" by those looking to profit on the differences between exchanges.  Its not a game for the faint-hearted.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5569
More discounted Crypto...

If yesterday was a buying opportunity, then this morning is an even better moment.

Bitcoin now down to $9,067

It looks like $9,500 was (very recent) support and once that gave way a new low was in the works.

Again, all terribly fast moving, so this could entirely reverse before I hit "save."

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5063
bitcoin trader

All of my intraday forecasters are in sell mode right now.

Definitely seeing "discounted crypto" right now.  :)  But where is that bottom?  That's always the fun part.  Fortunately, I have my code to tell me.   It is - usually - smarter than me.  I get all emotional.

Notice how the uptrend is an escalator, and the downtrend is an elevator.

How many long-term bitcoin longs absolutely unloaded once bitcoin broke 10k?   "I bought in at $5, and now that it hit $10k, I think I'll call it a day."

Yoxa's picture
Yoxa
Status: Gold Member (Online)
Joined: Dec 21 2011
Posts: 262
IRS wants to know about crypto trading
Quote:

 a federal judge in San Francisco ruled on Wednesday that Coinbase will be forced to provide the IRS with information on its users who are traded more than $20,000 in cryptocurrency in a year, between 2013-2015.



Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/60000/coinbase-forced-report-people-irs-trading-20k-more/

 

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