PM Daily Market Commentary - 11/13/2017

By davefairtex on Tue, Nov 14, 2017 - 4:42am


Gold rose +2.90 [+0.23%] to 1278.50 on very heavy volume, and silver climbed +0.18 [+1.07%] to 17.05 on very heavy volume. Currencies did not move much, and neither did gold.

Gold moved slowly higher starting in Asia through most of the day in New York, trailing off a bit at the close.  Candle print for gold today was a short white/NR7, which was neutral. However, the forecaster plunged -0.24 to read -0.41, which suggests the downtrend will accelerate for gold. After having two weeks worth of heavy volume days, the volume today was quite light.

COMEX GC open interest rose by 2,377 contracts.

Rate rise chances (Dec 2017) rose to 97%.

Silver moved mostly sideways today until about 9 am Eastern, when it took off higher, following a strong rally in copper.. Candle print was a bullish engulfing, which sounds good except the candle code felt it was just neutral. Forecaster rose +0.12 back to dead even. Silver managed to creep back above its 9 MA by a few pennies. On the daily chart, we can see that silver is continuing its sideways chop - one step forward, one step backwards.

COMEX SI open interest fell by -543 contracts.

The gold/silver ratio fell -0.63 to 74.96 That's bullish.

Miners were mixed today, with GDX rising +0.18%, while GDXJ dropped -0.69%. Volume on the GDXJ drop was moderately heavy. GDX printed a doji, while GDXJ printed a long black; both candles were bearish continuations. GDXJ made a new low. Forecasters; GDX -0.08 to -0.49, GDXJ +0.02 to -0.52. Miners remain mired in a downtrend.

Today, the GDXJ:GDX ratio fell, while the GDX:$GOLD ratio rose slightly. That's neutral.

Platinum rose +0.37%, palladium fell -0.39%, while copper shot up +1.71%. Platinum remains in a slow, choppy uptrend, palladium has broken below its 9 MA and has entered a downtrend, while copper's big rally today took it back above its 9 MA, and appears to have resumed its uptrend.  It was interesting to see how closely linked the copper and silver charts were today.  Silver was clearly following copper rather than gold.

The buck rose +0.09 [+0.10%] to 94.21. The buck tried to rally but the rally mostly failed, ending up printing a small spinning top candle which was neutral. Forecaster dropped -0.16 to -0.37. According to the forecaster, today's action was bearish. USD remains below its 9 MA.

Crude fell -0.20 [-0.35%] to 56.81, edging lower. Print for the day was a spinning top, which was probably slightly bearish. Forecaster plunged -0.29 to -0.19 – it seems the forecaster sees crude tipping over into a downtrend in the next few days. Crude remains above its 9 MA. Crude probably needs a decent API report tomorrow to keep it from sinking further.

The COT report came out today; in crude, commercials have moved heavily short, managed money has been squeezed out of most of its shorts, and has moved to an excessively long posture.  We're either at, or near a point where the crude COT could be indicating an imminent correction.  If we don't get some crude-positive news from somewhere, the COT is suggesting that the next move may well be down.

There was only one item of interest in the gold and silver COT reports - the commercials piled into silver short, adding 11k new short contracts.  The commercial short position in silver is relatively high, but the rest of the silver positions aren't supporting a top at the moment.

SPX rose +2.54 to 2584.84. SPX sold off a bit in the futures markets overnight, but rallied at the open, pulling prices back into the green by the close.  Candle print was a long white candle which was neutral. Forecaster moved up +0.22 to -0.01. That's almost back to flat again. SPX remains below its 9 MA. Utilities led (XLU:+1.19%), while energy did worst (XLE:-0.57%).

VIX rose +0.21 to 11.50.

TLT rose +0.21%, bouncing back slightly after the big loss last Friday. Forecaster jumped +0.34 but still remains quite bearish at -0.46. The 10 year treasury made a new low today. Bonds remain in a downtrend.

JNK fell -0.11%, dropping slightly after the swing low print from Friday. That's not much follow-through. Print was a spinning top: neutral. Forecaster jumped +0.43 to -0.54, which is still quite bearish. The bad news junk bonds are getting a lot of bad press these days; maybe this dip won't be bought quite so quickly.  JNK remains in a downtrend.

CRB fell -0.10%, drifting lower. Only 2 of 5 sectors fell, led by energy (-0.30%).

Except for the decent-sized rally in copper, not much happened today.

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