PM Daily Market Commentary - 8/8/2017

By davefairtex on Wed, Aug 9, 2017 - 6:03am

Gold rose +3.10 to 1266.50 on heavy volume, while silver climbed +0.18 to 16.43 on heavy volume also. Even though the Euro fell/the buck rallied, both metals managed to move higher – a sign of strength. Silver did especially well.

Gold made a new low to 1257.10, dropping about $10, with the plunge starting at 10 o'clock Eastern, after which the buyers showed up and moved prices back up into positive territory. Candle print was a confirmed bullish NR7, which has a 45% chance of marking the low. Golds forecaster actually fell, dropping 0.06 to read -0.21. Gold in Euros actually rallied 0.67%, moving back above it's 9 EMA. It may be too soon to say if the buyers have returned, but it is a possibility.

Open interest at COMEX for GC rose 1,150 contracts.

Rate rise chances (Dec 2017) remains at 43%.

Silver chopped sideways during Asia and London trading sessions, and took off at about 6 AM Eastern. Like gold, silver printed a confirmed bullish NR7 candle pattern, which the candle code said has a 56% chance of marking the low here. Silver's forecaster liked the price action, moving up +0.18, but the overall rating remains slightly bearish. Silver also remains below its 9 EMA.

Open interest at COMEX for SI fell -2,109 contracts. This is the second day where the open interest has fallen substantially.

The gold/silver ratio fell -0.66 to 77.06. That's bullish.

Miners fell initially but managed to recover by end of day, with GDX up +0.23% on moderate volume, while GDXJ rose +0.06% on light volume. GDX printed a spinning top, which had a 50% chance of a low, while GDXJ's print was a takuri line which was a continuation. The GDX forecaster climbed +0.15 to read -0.47, while the GDXJ forecaster also rose +0.15; it too reads -0.47.

The GDXJ:GDX ratio fell, while the GDX:$GOLD ratio rose. Call it neutral.

Platinum rose +0.34%, palladium climbed +1.35%, and copper rose +1.10%. This is a new multi-year high for palladium, a new multi-month high for platinum, and a new multi-year high for copper. The other metals continue to look strong.

The buck rose +0.21 to 93.51, moving slowly higher after the big rally on Friday. The metals managed to all rally in spite of the dollar's move higher.

Crude rallied during the London session, but then bounced lower for the remainder of the day, closing down -0.34 to 49.01. The API report showed a bullish crude draw, but oil ended up falling after the report release. Candle print was a spinning top, which the code felt was neutral.

SPX fell -5.99 to 2474.92. The candle code thought that the high wave candle was bearish, with a 40% chance of marking a top. Utilities did best (XLU:+0.41%) while materials fell most (XLB:-0.79%).

VIX rose +1.03 to 10.96. That's a big move for the VIX.

TLT fell -0.36%, taking TLT below its 50 MA and the 9 EMA also. TLT forecaster dropped -0.38 to read 0.04, just barely bullish.

JNK plunged -0.30, dropping through its 50 MA, continuing its recent downtrend. Code felt the long black candle could mark a low (35% chance).

CRB rose +0.07%; only 2 of 5 sectors rallied, led by industrial metals which jumped a big +2.06%.

Today we saw signs of life for gold in Euros, as well as a strong rally by silver. It still remains to be seen how well the metals will do in a stronger dollar rally, but today at least was positive.

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Penny551's picture
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 8 2012
Posts: 154
Plat-Gold Ratio...Interesting


Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 26 2016
Posts: 385

Lol, the miners suck so bad.  They are so hated right now.

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 26 2016
Posts: 385
Great Day

Spectacular day for the metals!  Nice to see.  Wish the miners would play.  Oh well, it was nice to see silver explode.  I guess that's what happens when they take their foot off its throat.

davefairtex's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5738
yesterday's signal

I think we got the signal over the past two days - 8k of short covering in silver.

I actually followed my instinct and picked up some PSLV yesterday.  Yay.

No miners though.

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