Ready for ETHER $350? Hold on tight!

mrees999
By mrees999 on Sat, Jun 10, 2017 - 12:49am

Rumblings about the next big Ethereum Alliance conferences brewing in China for next week. Last time this happened, we saw Eth Skyrocket from $100 to $220.

Insiders are already lining up shot it from $260 to $290 today.

Are you having fun yet?

 

Hold on tight.

 

 

55 Comments

Jim H's picture
Jim H
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Mrees' bad call on ETH

Mrees... if you keep making bad calls like this nobody is going to believe you anymore :)

Early in May you suggested ETH would be 300 by Sept.  Here is is only June 10 and ETH has touched 295 overnight.  This kind of gross inaccuracy is really hard to tolerate!  Love, Jim   

 

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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ETH

I will have to wait to see what Dave's chart says before I believe it.

 

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Wildly and grossly pessimistic about the price of Ether.

At first I told a friend it *might make it up to $50 by summer. That was in March. A month later was $150. I was calling for $250 by September. It hit that early June.  Called perhaps $350 next week. It almost hit it overnight (there is many hours left to go).  And the news hasn't  even been made public.  This is all just anticipation and insiders taking positions like it did in the May EEA conference. This may be much bigger.

If we are basing and calibrating actual price movements to my predictions...you can probably safely double my underestimation and pessimistic views.  When am I going to learn to be more optimistic about ethereum?   I just don't want to seem like a pumper I guess.

Go back to the first posts on this discussion board and I was sharing the view of me mining ethereum so you could see my results in real time. I was earning about 1 to 2 ether per day in early 2016 when they were worth a dollar or two.  I wish I could go back and keep those miners running just a bit longer.

I've heard some people call ethereum the buy and investment of their generation. Radicals will go on to say the investment of their lives.  Some go on to say the investment of the century.  But really - when was the last time the nature of money and value itself changed? Then consider it a worldwide moment. Then add network effect, instant transfer, paradigm changing thinking about how contracts work (3/4 of a quadrillion done in contracts yearly).  The nature of savings accounts that grow without the need for interest (couple trillion) - and the fact that 95% of the world hasn't got their head around it yet so it has room to grow.

This is the investment of the Millennium. So radical and unexpected that many on this website still can't believe it. They make the biggest financial mistake of their lives - and the lives of many generations of their family that follows for the missed opportunity,

The future "Rockefellers' might be found currently reading these blog posts and taking positions. There - hopefully that makes up for some of all that 'negative' talk and I've now made amends. 

 

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Jim H
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ETH = $348 right now...

There - hopefully that makes up for some of all that 'negative' talk and I've now made amends.

Apology accepted Mrees....     I Love you man!

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sand_puppy
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Putin likes Etherium

Suddenly Vladimir Putin Meets Vitalik Buterin (founder of Etherium) and Edorses Ethereum.

The International Economic Forum, which just wrapped up in St. Petersburg, reportedly resulted in more than €30 bln of investments. The final and the most important result, however, is measured not in numbers, but in the mood and attitude of those who attended the Forum and who was keeping an eye on the events and meetings held in the North “capital” of Russia.

The cryptocurrency community is for sure left stunned by the recent meeting between Russian President Putin and the founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin.

Putin becomes a fan of Blockchain

As commented by Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, during the meeting, Putin and Buterin discussed the application of technologies in the country. Reportedly, the president supported the idea of establishing new business relationships following the road paved by Blockchain technology.

Earlier during the Forum, the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that Putin is really enthusiastic about the idea of building a new digital economy in the country and shared that at the moment at least three directions of Blockchain application are being explored and tested, which include the tracking of goods, building identity as well as ownership rights protection systems.

Buterin was among the speakers at the panel discussion on Blockchain economy, which actually became one of the most popular ones. Panelists discussed the potential of the technology to trigger the establishment of a new type of economy, as well as regulatory issues related to that process.

Russia aims to become global IT leader

Blockchain technology is often compared with another technological invention - the Internet - and the impact of it is expected to be much greater. Just like in the case of the World Wide Web, those countries that decide to be bold and implement technology solutions before anyone else does are going to have a significant competitive advantage.

Russia has a chance to become one of the leaders in the global IT industry. Even though details of the meeting between Putin and Buterin are kept under the seal of secrecy, one detail leaked - the president is ready to give full support for the development of Blockchain technology, what would definitely result in a much greater volume of investments coming into the country despite any restrictions and sanctions.

Jim H's picture
Jim H
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Thank you SP... juxtapose these facts;

1)  ETH market cap (summed value of all coins) now about $30B

2)  SP's post,  "Blockchain technology is often compared with another technological invention - the Internet - and the impact of it is expected to be much greater."

3)  Regarding Buterin, the founder of ETH, " Buterin was among the speakers at the panel discussion on Blockchain economy, which actually became one of the most popular ones. Panelists discussed the potential of the technology to trigger the establishment of a new type of economy".

What is my point?  Buterin is the creator of ETH and a visionary. Some stock advisors preach that one should invest in the leaders, not necessarily the company itself.  Athough ETH is not a stock (it is in many ways an anti-stock) you can think about it in the same terms;  market cap., where are we in the growth story?, etc. 

We are early, early, early in the growth story.  This asset class is a revolution similar if not bigger than the internet itself.  Who or what will be the Amazon's and Google's of the Blockchain space?  If Amazon and Google alone have a combined market cap of $1.1T.. .what then is the potential value of ETH coins as we move forward in this story?  These ETH coins are the glue, and the energy source that will allow for all of the (often private branch) ETH offshoots to talk to each other.  Think B2B (business-to-business) applications.  The mind reels.  

A $1T market cap for ETH would put the coins at $10,000 each.  Crazy?  No, not crazy.  ETH could hit $1000 before YE 2017.  It's market cap will exceed that of Bitcoin within the next few months.. at which point another wave of mainstream media recognition will wash over the space.

Good luck to all who are working to retain some of their saved labor through the money crisis that is still to come.   As with Gold and Silver, one's ability to put these valuations in proper context will be hampered if one does not understand what debt-based money is, and how it functions.  If you don't get that the constant creation of money through QE ($1.5T so far in 2017..see link below) is distorting the hell out of conventional markets and will eventually cause a stampede into the (relatively) small markets for physical PM's and these crypto's ... I can't help you - just go ahead and buy some stocks and depend on your pension.. you have an early place in line with lots of other people for a (financial) Darwin award.     

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-09/nothing-else-matters-central-ba...

    

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Putin

OL  Vlad probably does not read Peak Prosperity I am guessing. I am also guessing Russia has enough gold. I will also hazard a guess he knows where the future lies

 

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Putin

OL  Vlad probably does not read Peak Prosperity I am guessing. I am also guessing Russia has enough gold. I will also hazard a guess he knows where the future lies

 

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ethereum

Ethereum is more than just a currency, that's why it is outpacing bitcoin.  There is just a lot more value there.

Here's my metaphor: let's say bitcoin was gold.  Ethereum is an isotope of gold that also happens to cure cancer.

Ok maybe that's over the top, but as an engineer I can see immense value in the model.  It is far more than just a mere currency.

They still have a lot of bugs to fix, and I'm guessing the future implementation will look a lot different from what we have today, but the evolutionary path is really interesting.  There simply is no similar path for bitcoin.  It is all it will ever be; they may tweak it here and there, but it is an evolutionary dead-end of sorts.

 

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My Sainted Aunt Grabbed My Lapels and Demanded ....

Dave's description of what the mania of a bubble looks like made me laugh so I had to include it here again.

So, I caught the "crypto exponential fever" and, like the farmer who dropped his plow in the field in 1849 when the cry of "GOLD" went up, I have raced off to become a prospector in the California mountains (continuing with the use of melodramatic metaphors for the excitement and fear of grabbing hold of an asset whose price is exponentially rising.)

We purchased ETH at $348 last night at 5 PM (Sunday evening).  I get up at 10 am this morning to find that it is $391.  At noon it is $396 and Coinbase is running very slowly as it is so busy handling traffic.

----------------------------------------

I am a wounded veteran of the telecom bubble.  I avidly read the George Gilder Telecom Report ('98 -- '00) and dreamed with him about the transformation of the world as it became encircled with band of light where "virtual presence" made air travel obsolete.  I caught the dream.  My 401k doubled.  Then doubled again. When it almost completed a 3rd doubling, I decided that it was time to retire.

Then stock prices flattened. Then dropped.  But did not sell because I KNEW that this time it was different, completely different, that fiber-optic hyper-connection was the wave of the future and the stock prices would rise until then entire world was linked.  I had the dream of a glorious future (with me rich in that dream as I was SO smart to have caught the vision early).

So my question will be, when is it time to sell ETH?  True believers will say "Never, this will grow forever.  It is the wave of the future......"  Such can be the cognitive distortion of an enthusiastic visionary who doesn't distinguish between the asset utility and its market price.  

My main concern here is to not ride a bubble down the back side.

 

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sainted aunts

So Armstrong says that the phase transition moves happen in multiples of 6.  6 weeks, 12 weeks, 6 months, 12 months, etc.

Telecom 2000 was 12 months for a 2x move.  Silver in 1980 was 6 weeks for a 2.5x move.

Here's the anatomy of the silver move in 1980.

And here is bitcoin.  About a 2.5x move, over the last 6 weeks.

I really do like ethereum.  I'm not so happy with the chart.  :)

Then again, we could have another 6 weeks straight up!  Ultimately, we need to wait for that ugly bearish engulfing, or a swing high, or something like that.

mrees999's picture
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Waiting to buy the dip

dip

Ethereum will dip...any day now.

Mohammed Mast's picture
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The dip

Now that is funny

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its different this time

No really, it is.  Way different.  That was stupid, old-school silver.  This is bitcoin!  Its the new-new thing!

Again, something can be the coolest thing ever, and still be overpriced.  :)

And if I recall correctly, SP was asking "when do I sell"?

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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ETH

Well I have seen lots of people try to predict what is going to happen to cryptocurrencies. Most were wrong. If you think you have a program to do it more power to you. The only question is why not use that program?

ETH is going to pass BTC in market cap not next year the way experts were predicting but it could happen any time. When does your program say it is going to happen? 

When it does volatility will be on steroids.  

i like you Dave, I don't like the fear you put out but it is not paranoia and you come by it honestly. So here is a tip for you TEZOS.

Of course you will have to have some coin to buy in with. All the best

skipr's picture
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buying real estate

I have been looking to move out of AZ for a few years.  The ever-increasing record highs and decreasing rainfall is killing this 4-season guy.  The places I like the most are in the northwest and northeast, and they all seriously squeeze my budget.  Today I started thinking about cashing out about 20% of some other investments and use it to buy a lot of ETH.  If the bottom falls out of ETH, hopefully it will hold off until I can get at least a 400% return.  Then again if ETH does seriously crash I would hang onto it since I think it will quickly rebound back to the 0% level and eventually to 400%.  By then the real estate bubble may have popped and I could get an outstanding deal.  This is a risk, but not that much of risk since it will not put me into the street if the worst-worst happens.

I also started thinking about how to sell this house of mine.  I’m thinking about advertising a discount if I’m paid with BTC and/or ETH.

Tycer's picture
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I've never read fear into

I've never read fear into Dave's words. Just the numbers and dialog on their interpretation.

IMO, the correlation of BTCs rise to ETH may not be accurate. ETH does not yet have the history for Dave to model. As/if ETH becomes more useful and adopted (and POS works) it may very well find its charting looks very different than BTC.

 

Kind regards,

Tycer

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models disagree

Tycer-

You are 100% right about ETH being too new (for me) to model.  I use BITSTAMP because it has the longest history from the sources I have.

Right now, at bitstamp, my bearish candle model has triggered.  "bearish engulfing" 69% chance of a top.  But at the same time, this new pattern model I'm working on says "BTFD", although only semi-enthusiastically (35%).  Pattern model has been decent about picking the dips to buy.   It also said sell a few days back right at the top, but it didn't say it all that loudly.

Pattern model nailed the low back in late March at 990.  80% buy signal about 4 days after the low, the highest rating I've seen in the past 5 months.  So I'm a cautious believer in its ability to read bitcoin.

As mentioned, today's buy signal is at 35%. So, "maybe buy."

Pattern code isn't perfect at seeing every buying opportunity.  It just triggers on the patterns it has seen before that have (historically) worked out well in other instruments.

I wish I had a helpful model for spotting and picking the top for the silver 1980-like phase transition events.  I don't.  So I'm left with the Mark I eyeball.  From what I've seen, during phase transitions, you cling to your position for dear life (sound familiar?) until the right side of the spike shows a breakdown, knowing going in that you won't be able to sell the very top.   We don't have a right side yet for BTC.

I also have a secondary (non neural-network) pattern model that's much simpler.  So far, its saying "all systems go" for BTC.  It only turned iffy on BTC back in mid-to-late March.  That same (simple) model got quite unhappy with silver during its last big move down.

Fun fact: pattern code said sell silver (40%) four trading days ago.  It is saying sell (34%) right now.

Mohammed Mast's picture
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Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
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Fear

I suggest you look more closely at his words. You might also ask him why he is not in the crypto currency market. 

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Skip - Buying real estate

Sounds like you at least have a plan.. True that northwest and northeast real estate is very over priced IMO. Heck most real estate is.

You are hoping to $1,500 ETH? Not financial advise here but I do think we will see that next year. Mark may have a better handle on longer term price projections. ETH tech and platform have proven useful and will remain so as more big business piles in. Mark was SPOT on when he said ETH is the new oil.. the new layers built on top of ETH do for transportation or ETH's GAS! 

We do get 4 seasons in the Midwest too you know :-)

I have time to wait and watch. Watch the crypto market continue to produce extra ordinary returns.. 

Time2help's picture
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Easy Peasy
sand_puppy wrote:

So my question will be, when is it time to sell ETH?  True believers will say "Never, this will grow forever.  It is the wave of the future......"  Such can be the cognitive distortion of an enthusiastic visionary who doesn't distinguish between the asset utility and its market price.  

My main concern here is to not ride a bubble down the back side.

1) Assume you will loose the money you have put in. So no biggie.

2) Set a target goal that you would like to reach. The minute ETH (or whatever) hits your target, you pull. No questions asked. And to heck with how high it goes (or doesn't) after that.

New_Life's picture
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The dip?
mrees999 wrote:

dip

Ethereum will dip...any day now.

Certainly looks like its a bubble that needed to correct, I wonder if the hype over the Bancor ICO is partly to blame.

How low and for how long will it dip for new buyers to get in for the long term??

Time2help's picture
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Setting the hooks

Attempting to set them, at least.

Current Definition

From 31 U.S.C. s 5312: "“monetary instruments” means--

United States coins and currency; as the Secretary may prescribe by regulation, coins and currency of a foreign country, travelers' checks, bearer negotiable instruments, bearer investment securities, bearer securities, stock on which title is passed on delivery, and similar material;  and as the Secretary of the Treasury shall provide by regulation for purposes of sections 5316 and 5331, checks, drafts, notes, money orders, and other similar instruments which are drawn on or by a foreign financial institution and are not in bearer form."

Proposed Additions

SEC. 13. PREPAID ACCESS DEVICES, DIGITAL CURRENCIES, OR OTHER SIMILAR INSTRUMENTS.

(a) In General.—Section 5312(a) of title 31, United States Code, is amended—

(1) in paragraph (2)(K)—

(A) by inserting “prepaid access devices, digital currency,” after “money orders,”; and

(B) by inserting before the semicolon at the end the following: “, or any digital exchanger or tumbler of digital currency”;

(2) in paragraph (3)(B), by inserting “prepaid access devices,” after “delivery,”; and

(3) by adding at the end the following:

“(7) ‘prepaid access device’ means an electronic device or vehicle, such as a card, plate, code, number, electronic serial number, mobile identification number, personal identification number, or other instrument, that provides a portal to funds or the value of funds that have been paid in advance and can be retrievable and transferable at some point in the future.”.

(b) GAO Report.—Not later than 18 months after the date of enactment of this Act, the Comptroller General of the United States shall submit to Congress a report on—

(1) the impact the amendments made by subsection (a) have had on law enforcement, the prepaid access industry, and consumers; and

(2) the implementation and enforcement of the final rule entitled “Bank Secrecy Act Regulations—Definitions and Other Regulations Relating to Prepaid Access” (76 Fed. Reg. 45403 (July 19, 2011)) by the Department of the Treasury.

(c) Customs And Border Protection Strategy For Prepaid Access Devices.—Not later than 18 months after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, shall submit to Congress a report—

(1) detailing a strategy to interdict and detect prepaid access devices, digital currencies, or other similar instruments, at border crossings and other ports of entry for the United States; and

(2) that includes an assessment of infrastructure needed to carry out the strategy detailed in paragraph (1).

SEC. 14. ADMINISTRATIVE SUBPOENAS FOR MONEY LAUNDERING CASES.
Section 3486(a) of title 18, United States Code, is amended—

(1) in paragraph (1)(A)—

(A) in the matter preceding clause (i), by striking “of” and inserting “relating to”;

(B) in clause (ii), by striking “or”;

(C) in clause (iii)—

(i) by striking “section 3056” and inserting “section 3056(a)”; and

(ii) by striking “the Treasury,” and inserting “Homeland Security; or”; and

(D) by inserting after clause (iii) the following:

“(iv) an offense under section 1956, 1957, or 1960 of this title, or section 5313, 5316, 5324, 5331, or 5332 of title 31, or an offense against a foreign nation constituting specified unlawful activity under section 1956 of this title, or a criminal or civil forfeiture based upon an offense enumerated in this subparagraph or for which enforcement could be brought under section 2467 of title 28, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Homeland Security, or the Secretary of the Treasury,”; and

(2) in paragraph (6)(B)—

(A) in clause (iii), by striking “or” at the end;

(B) in clause (iv), by striking the period and inserting “; or”; and

(C) by adding at the end following:

“(v) dissipation, destruction, removal, transfer, damage, encumbrance, or other unavailability of property that may become subject to forfeiture or an enforcement action under 2467 of title 28.”.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
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Technology always outpaces laws

This was entertaining reading.  They are so backward they consider a hardware device that stores private keys to be money? It only stores a 72 digit number. That is all. The actual value is stored on the blockchain which is a giant ledger in the cloud. The ledger is backed up and reconciled in real time on a network that cannot be shut down. 

The technology has been build in a way the memorizing 12 easy words is all it takes. They mention devices that can contain value or money...So will the confiscate one's head?  How about those that decide to email themselves the 12 words and can retrieve than in any part of the world and purchase a new device to restore it and spend the funds?

Borders mean nothing to the internet and blockchain. This once again shows the lawmakers have no clue about what they are doing in the blockchain space. And this doesn't even include technologies like zero-ringed signatures which obscures sender\receiver\and amounts in military grade encryption. Or the fact that you can create a contract to pay yourself after a certain amount of time that would easily allow you to get paid in yours of days. You don't even need to remember a password or own any kind of device including a small piece of paper with 'random thoughts' that contain within it ,one's seed words.

Capital controls will be obsolete. Things like ether are creating an entirely new paradigm that will eat governments as we know them. This is once in a million technology. They have no idea of the tidal wave that is about to blindside them. This kind of things expose the stupid ones.

This might be as effective as stopping the internet itself. Since blockchain is moved WAY beyond just money - it's integrated into just about anything of value and has so many benefits that outway the possible negative - it would be akin to shutting down every road in the world and destroying any bridges to stop a bank robber. Even though most bank robberies come from the bankers themselves.

This is laughable.

 

 

 

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Time2help
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Laughable perhaps

Agree with most of what you are saying Mrees999.

But also a pause for reflection/concern?

One axiom that resonants is "Never underestimate the greed of Man".

I'd tweak it slightly: "Never underestimate the greed of Man, and never overestimate his empathy".

If this truly becomes the threat to the system that it may well be, what limits do you think will TPTB observe in addressing this? These psychopaths are perfectly capable (given the technology at their disposal), and should the need arise would be quite willing to, kill 7+ billion people.

mrees99 wrote:

"Things like ether are creating an entire new paradigm that will eat governments as we know them."

Isn't that the goal of the Globalists, to eat governments (national sovereignty)?

"Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it".

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not there yet

Ethereum is far from being critical infrastructure.  They could kill it off now (where "they" is the vague, world-wide central banking cartel) without much more than a burp.

What's my evidence?  The ECB and the BOJ, each and every month, print more money than the total market cap of the entire coin market.

And for all the promise of ethereum, as of this moment, its largely vaporware.  Its primary utility right now is trading ETH.

In 5 years, it will be a different story.  I think you've drunk the kool-aid for so long, you've started time-traveling.  :)

I agree about the futility of trying to stop the flow of bitcoins at the border.   They'll pass laws that will get a few stupid people, but that's it.

 

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mrees999
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Be carefull what you wish for. This is NOT the end.

I'm not sure I'm wishing for anything. I'm only making an observation. People always try to compare what is coming with what they already know and have experienced. Much of this technology has no comparison for the world we know. It’s like trying to explain Facebook to somebody in the early 90s who might compare it to fax machines. I.E.  “Everybody sends faxes of themselves to all their friends to tell them what is happening in their lives”?

What would happen in a world where arbitrary invisible lines drawn on a map no longer have meaning? Power structures that were build on communities and traditions that were created by ancestors centuries or millennia ago, no longer have relevance in a world of today \ let alone tomorrow.

Game theory suggests those with the best ideas and help the most people will be followed and corruption and will fade. Corruption REQUIRES that truth is hidden. And trust REQUIRES openness to the public, and without a third party in charge that can eventually become corruptible.  This is now possible with blockchain technology - history is immutable - one can no longer cover their tracks.  We’ve never had this before so we have nothing today to compare it to. People will DEMAND transparency from their leaders – and corrupt officials and those in charge will begin running out of excuses as their competition sign up for it.

The bright light of sunshine using public open ledgers for transparency is a once in a millennia game-changer. Once people realize blockchain goes WAY beyond just money – things will start to gain a new framing and focus. We’ve just cracked open the door to a new dimension – we have no idea what lies over the horizon of our imaginations.

The ripple effects are profound. When most jobs we can think of will be taken over by automation – through AI, Robotics, and Blockchain. Blue collar, white collar, manual labor - entertainment, medical, financial– almost no industry will remain untouched. For those of us that gain our identity through what kind of career we have will need to find new ways of identifying themselves. It might be uncomfortable. Good leaders will find ways to adjust to this and retrain the population…and quickly. The current power structures are about to be disrupted beyond what most leaders can comprehend. Imagine the world 20 years ago and how it has been transformed because of the internet. Now can we imagine a world that will change as much or more as most banking functions will not require a third-party trust?

This is likely to bring upheaval. But I tend to think positive and look forward to a brighter future and knowledge of this let’s my think of ways I can take early positions that will benefit me and my friends and family. History has proven that those people that adapt early have the advantage and can help lead and guide with influence if they are smart, active and kind. Then there are others who resist change and try to keep things in their comfort zone. In business, they call this “Adapt or Die”. The smartest leaders will prepare for this and have answers ready. Those who don't will fight and fade as nature's law once again prevails - it will be survival of the fittest. In a war of ideas, the best will float to the top and set the bar.

If history is your guide – you will soon learn how they get trampled in the end.  That is a big part of why this website exists. To give people early advice and preparation for a version of the future that might happen given what we know. But it isn’t the only version. We all agree that money as we know it will die. But what form it takes after that can be based on last century – or future century technology. From the vast amount of studying I’ve done on both predictions starting from the past with gold and silver– I’ll go with the future, based on blockchain and grass-roots new currencies coming from the community from the bottom up. This is how revolutions start.

One pessimistic view is that the world ends and leaders want to burn the world to the ground.  Good luck with that - hope your nights are happy and filled with joy,

I'm a glass is half full kind of guy.  The world has gotten itself into a giant money mess - and this technology came out of nowhere and gives us an answer just in time. This is NOT the end.

http://i.imgur.com/5bZEFwc.gifv

 

You can’t stop an idea whose time has come.

 

 

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Eth Addict - my kool-aid

Dave is absolutely correct.

Ethereum is a baby. It cannot take over the world, governments, even tiny ones. It is largely vaporware at the moment. It gets clogged down with each major ICO as it can only handle 25 transactions per second, and thousands try "calling in' like a radio station giveaway to caller number 7. 

There are a number of advancements that need to take place that is on the drawing board. Ethereum is just one of many blockchains vying for dominance in our future. See Bitshares, Wave, Rootstock and more. It is still a baby and not even half way through its conception that will happen in four releases with the final release still years away. Please don't take my endorsements for the technology as solid gospel. Dave is very good at remaining grounded. Considering my 1,600% gain - and climbing - and with this ROI, perhaps I have become drunk on the possibilities. That kind of return is the stuff f legends and a bit of luck I'm sure. 

The great fractional reserve fiat system is crumbling. So can we start talking about alternatives? On one hand we have blockchain and the amazing possibilities we can only glimpse of imagination in its current state. This requires no third party to trust as we've seen how well that works out. Verses.............

I would love Dave, or anybody else to fill in the blank. What have you got?

But governments and big companies around the world who have studied it much longer than Dave are open to the changes and potential. To them, this is much more than vaporware as they've been in stealth mode since the beginning.  The trend is for governments to study and eventually spit out their own blockchain tokenized currency-

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/future-here-singapore-tokenizes-fiat-currency-blockchain/

But these still leave a central party in control, and monopoly of their currency issue rate. Does this really solve the fiat problem? All they did was create a tokenized digital fiat. This may be more dangerous than the ground-up grassroots anti-establishment versions like bitcoin and ethereum that were created with nobody's permission.

However, it is starting to emerge from Vaporware.

Helping to stop starvation:

http://www.coindesk.com/united-nations-sends-aid-to-10000-syrian-refugees-using-ethereum-blockchain/

And of course, it's first killer app - challenging the status-quo by issuing the new world economic structure by issuing company share-like tokens in a financial instrument that has never existed before and is so strange that current regulations can't define it.

https://media.consensys.net/the-blockchain-killer-app-ethereum-tokens-c3f5e6f4ce7f

No matter that it is creating instant wealth for those with the knowledge to invest in these. (Warning many\most of these new ICOs are scams). This was off the radar a few years ago and likely still isn't recognized by the vast majority of readers of this website. Dave's silver investments for example in the last three years are flat, and even negative accounting for inflation. The 'vaporware' is netting me 100% returns per month. So what do I know?

smiley

 

My technologies agree with the pattern that we overestimate what we can do in the next year or two - but underestimate what we can do in 10 years.

So perhaps take what I say with a grain of salt. Remember that just because I followed this early and spent over 10,000 hours researching blockchain technology and have now become very wealthy with my early insight - there is the possibility that Dave may be right. He has spent around two months (?) researching and getting his head wrapped around the technology. He is still skeptical and his 'vast' experience and research which can be possible in the limited amount of time he has free between his regular job and researching silver and gold charts. 

He has the gift of fresh eyes on the subject and an open mind which have left me years ago. I am biased and drunk with inside knowledge that skews my insight and applicability to current events as I'm always thinking two to five years ahead. As a technologist, this is what we do and prepare for.  So far - it's worked out pretty well for me as the price of Ethereum has done what I predicted two and three years ago. Those that listened to me then are also wealthy.  There is little doubt we are in a crypto-bubble but there will be many crypto-bubble millionaires. Past performance does not guaranty future results.

Consult your own financial advisor.  

And explain to them what Ethereum, ICOs, blockchain, and tokenization is. They will likely 'get it' in a few years once they have a conference where the speakers will speak about it in past-tense and try to 'churn' your investments into newly issued 'crypto-bonds. yielding 4%.

Dave might be up to speed and can help you teach them by then.

(Of course, Dave and I tease each other for those that don't also know)

 

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4772
silly mrees

I have been misrepresented!  Its a first here at PP.

So let me just repeat myself.

Today, ethereum platform is largely vaporware.  Its a prototype.  Its a gasoline-powered car that goes 3 miles per hour.  All the hard problems remain to be solved.  There are no killer apps using the code on which the economy depends.  The primary use of ethereum is - trading ETH - which is fine, but its not a killer app that's critical to the functioning of the economy.  If ETH died today, the owners would not be happy, but the larger economy would remain unaffected.  That's where we are today.

Fast forward 5 years (or maybe 10), it is likely that by then the "hard computer science problems" will have been solved.  By then, the system will be able to process 10k TPS, or more - it might well replace VISA - the whole nine yards.  It really will walk the dog and mix the drinks.  At that point, it will be impossible to kill off.

At that point, I will have probably used it for my next startup to do...something.  I'm not sure what.  But it will come to me in time.  I will be building my code on top of an evolving system, but that's nothing new, that's how it always is.  If you want to anticipate where things are going, its what you have to do.

In his own mind, Mrees is living in that world 10 years from now.  He often speaks from that world.  While I too can see the world he talks about (once I saw the architecture, it all became quite clear to me what the potential was - as a software architect one of my skill sets is to be able to quickly grasp structures that have not yet been built out), we aren't there yet.

Can ethereum be killed today without material economic effect?  You bet.  Will it?  I have no idea.  "They" definitely want to keep the capital control genies in the bottle.  Will the coming crisis (which we all see) come rapidly enough, and provide them enough motivation to crush something they perceive to be an existential threat - before it becomes too big to kill?  Maybe.

It will take years for the software to get to the point where it's stable and capable enough to become economically indispensable.  Between now and then, it is vulnerable - a cute little (squashable) baby lizard before it grows up to be a deadly T-Rex.  I have noticed that those with large ETH positions (and 1600% returns) have a tendency of not being able to see these potential outcomes.  :)  That's just human nature.

For me, since I don't have a massive position, I'm not as limited - I can still see a range of outcomes.  Some line up with the future where mrees lives his entire life, and some do not.

To my mind, its a race.  I'd love for him to be right - it sure would be a lot more fun, and I need that platform fully functioning to be able to execute my new startup - but I can't say as categorically as he does that things will actually work out that way.

If it wasn't a currency, I'd agree with him that it's unstoppable.  But because it threatens to remove the bankers from their position of controlling the flow of money in the economy (and thus taking a slice from literally every transaction)...I think there are still a lot of ways this can play out.  We imagine they will just go quietly off into the night and fold their tents once it becomes clear where things are going?

There's a phrase I recall a friend of mine using - popular in the Army training schools: "the enemy gets a vote too."

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 295
In the future, there will be....

Who knows?

This is a bit of a long response but gives some background on myself to understand where I come from. I get private messages frequently from people that appreciate detailed reads – so curl up and read on if you wish. You may understand my motivations on a more personal level or not – probably no revelations about upcoming technology in this one. If you’re like me – you’re like to understand personalities from the people you read.

David said a lot of accurate things about me. I do think in future tense and work from there backward. That is my nature.  But the funny and strange thing is - because I also do endless hours of research and understand human nature, history, game theory, macroeconomics, monetary theory, logic, and follow many future trends - I've got a pretty good track record for the last 30 years. Plus I'm not opposed at all of thinking outside the box and am passionate and stubborn enough that even in the face of ridicule I'm also confident that I'm not swayed in the slightest by current populism. 

I gave up years ago trying to convince even my family that this 'thing' was real and not a Ponzi scheme. Almost everybody in crypto has this same story to tell.  Even my own excellent reputation wasn't enough to combat what they had read and saw from financial news reporting it as tulip bulbs and beanie babies in 2013 and 2014 when I was writing about it (and incidentally now have a cover story for Bitcoin Magazine - enshrined in the Smithsonian Institute in the section of "Past / present / future" forms of money exhibit.)

I get a kick of seeing my predictions come true, but I wouldn't say I'm a genius. Between David and myself on a test of pure IQ - David would likely win that one.  I just have strange obsessive research bug. When I find something interesting I devour it.  Before cryptocurrency related research - it was all about credit default swaps, the banking crisis causes, monetary theory, International Finance, new laws for bank bail-ins. I then studied new political reform measures, that nature of debt and our current impossible monetary hole we continue to dig ourselves.  My sources of research covered a vast array of different perspectives and realized the mainstream press is 'captured'. I bought physical gold and silver like probably all do on this website for insurance when the house of cards we call the banking system eventually comes crumbling down.

 

Until one night as I was reading a website dedicated to technical articles (Motherboard Vice) I read a headline called “Is it time to take bitcoin seriously?” The price had just crossed $30 and it was March of 2013. Until then I had only vaguely heard of bitcoin but wrote it off as everybody else I know – funny money. But this time with an open mind (probably aided by cold medicine) I devoured it because I recognized the seed philosophy of the inventors basing this new thing as a digital version of gold\silver. It wasn’t fiat because it wasn’t issued by decree, it came from the bottom up and classified by common people as a legit form of money themselves. Finally, there was a way to ‘trust’ a currency that just couldn’t be printed as it was hard-set in the program code everybody decided to run around the world and would check each other in real time verifying all of their ledgers matched. It was all handled through encryption. This technology wasn’t born overnight. I later learned research for this currency system had been going on for decades and the banking crisis finally gave the last major emphasis to find the solution.  Plus, the technology which was born from the bit torrent network was the final piece of the puzzle needed to keep it from being centralized and able to be shut down.

 

I immediately downloaded the white paper to understand more. I couldn’t sleep. The cold medicine was no match for my racing pulse. For the next six to eight months – I couldn’t stop reading everything I could to catch up as the thing was already four years old at that time. I began to throw money at it. Nothing big and most of my friends would ‘tune out’ when I talked about it. The first rule of bitcoin is to never stop talking about bitcoin. We are almost as bad as vegans.  As it continued to rise with ups and downs in price like I had never seen – it was a rush and a giant bubble. David and I connected at this point and his wisdom of charting and experience recognized this bubble in December of 2013 and correctly called its doom. It crashed 80% in the next 18 months. Ironically this was the third major crash and not even the biggest. It was worse in 2012 dropping over 90% leading Wired Magazine to issue and article called “The Life and Death of Bitcoin”. But I love an underdog. It wasn’t long before I followed the most intelligent people and their new project called Ethereum. This also didn't come out of anywhere. It was developed because of several failed experiments to do other functions built on top of bitcoin that proved impossible due to Bitcoins fairly one-dimensional computer code (although many of the functions found in Ethereum were written into the original bitcoin code – they were deactivated to make it easier to test and go live with just the limited testers and developers at the time).

 

 

In short, I follow smart/brilliant people. I follow successful people that are ‘self-made’ and strive to understand what makes them different. I recognize a lot of those traits in me. I like to teach, write, and share my knowledge. Usually for free. I volunteer and help and find people with an open mind that aren’t afraid to ‘think against the grain’. This is why I post as often as I do on Peak Prosperity. We all tend to think against the grain of popular sentiment here.

 

 

In the meantime – I’ve developed a very rare knowledge and talent that is specialized in this new paradigm. I’ve placed my bets on this technology that have made me wealthy enough to retire 20 years early and debt free. For a guy without a master’s degree, and little formal education in economics and computer science my determination and stubbornness against criticism from those that don’t take the time to learn this technology but feel free to drop in their pot-shots just make me laugh. The sarcastic and creative side come out to defend the technology. In short, if you are going to criticize the technology for which I”ve become a subject matter expert – you better do your homework first – I’ve been known to shred people on-line that must feel like they’ve just touched a buzz saw that come in unprepared.

As I’ve become a multi-millionaire, people now come to me to learn. So much that I no longer have the time to teach the one-on-one and am now developing an on-line course to teach them step by step from a beginning stage *101 level* and followed by the 201 \ 301 stages of blockchain technology. This will be available soon. I’ve also started a project proof of concept for “Watch My Wallet” to allow people that are interested in the money and returns portion of the technology but don’t have the time or interested in understanding how it all works. They can benefit from my expertise by just seeing what I do and have me explain why I did it. They are encouraged to follow my moves with their own wallets if they wish but there are no guarantees and I’m not a financial advisor. My goal there is to turn 10x profits within a year. Which I’ve done multiple years. Who else does that?  I also teach how to secure it off exchanges and impossible to reach for hackers.

Of course, I will charge a fee for that to monetize the endless hours of research I continue to do. I’m not ready for the live version yet as I continue to develop it but I’ve started a list of participants that want to be included. Send me a PM if you also want to be included. This will include a newsletter and live webinars to answer questions.  I’ve entertained different amounts to charge for this service and haven’t settled on a price yet. (most likely a few hundred a month, and the minimum wallet you must start with will be $5,000 and a commitment to stick with the program for at least six months – the swings are wild and you have to “HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE” when they drop breathtaking speeds and amounts.  But then sometimes return back with and event more breathtaking speed and amounts. People tend to panic and sell at all the wrong times. Looking at the charts for history it keeps going up overall. This is not a solicitation for business and all that usually legalize warnings. Just to let anybody reading this know what I’m thinking about. When we are talking 10x returns millions turn into tens of millions pretty quick. I probably don’t need the money except for cash-flow.

Now, David has pegged me pretty accurate. I do live 10 years in the future and there are no guarantees of my visions. I’ve been wrong before – plenty of times. But David, as smart and awesome as he is, doesn’t yet know of all the backing from banks and governments that are going into this technology. He bases his opinions and strategies like the rest of us-  using the information we all have at the time. There is nothing wrong with that and I have tremendous respect for David for this. He is also honest – and I hope to have shown the same thing even to a personal level. I’ve got nothing to hide. You now see I’m doing well – but I’m equally sure there will be rough spots too and I hope to be prepared for those when they come. – I’m even making arrangements for those times now – outside of the crypto-world. But I practice what I preach – and even open up my wallet to prove it. (for paying customers).

Overall – I’ll continue to dance with the partner I brought to the dance (crypto). Ten years from now I envision I’ll be happy I did. I always try to begin with the end in mind.

 

Remember – you ain’t seen nothing yet.

nw-reader's picture
nw-reader
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Posts: 5
Still in vaporware state?

Dave commented that ethereum is still just vaporware and, to my surprise, Mark agreed with him.  I'm new to all of this, but when I view a Web page such as State of the Dapps at dapps.ethercasts.com, I see over 130 projects that are listed as having Live status.  You guys have studied this so much that I'm sure you'll recognize some of them by name right away.  

Please enlighten this newbie.  Are the apps listed as Live on that page not truly finished?  Or are they so modest that they don't really matter?  Or is there something else that prevents these live projects giving ethereum more than vaporware status?

Thanks in advance.

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: May 17 2017
Posts: 80
Shut Down

Dave thinks the NSA can shut down btc anytime it chooses.

Tycer's picture
Tycer
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Joined: Apr 26 2009
Posts: 594
I am glad we have the ignorance button.

Goodbye MM. Your obnoxious use of logical fallacies has sent you to my dustbin. 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4772
TLDR, vaporware

Oh my gosh Mrees you write as much as I do.  You expect me to read all that?  :)

Its good perspective, certainly.  I do a lot of the same things - run off and do a deep dive on random things as they appear in my life.  Usually good things come out of my research.  And I appreciate the time & effort you've taken to educate me and everyone else here about the situation.  I'm especially glad you can have a massive position and still remain a good natured person.

I've become convinced that the platform technical risk is acceptable.  A solution will be found eventually, because there are enough people and money in the tech space who want this to happen.  There will be turbulence, as you said for things like the upcoming hard fork, but it seems as though *coin world has survived worse than that in the past and survived.

Here's my current issue.

Politically, bitcoin/ethereum is going up against the dark powers who have had it their way for millennia, and are now seemingly in complete control of the central-banking-warfare (CBW) system worldwide.  Right now, CBW seems happy enough with *coins to watch from the sidelines.

Once the Euro starts to disintegrate and capital flight becomes a reality, they will impose capital controls, and the *coins will become a lot less of a good thing for them.  Likewise, if/when China has its debt crisis, it will be an issue there too.  As long as the CBW group benefits from the free flow of capital between countries, *coins will have a grand old time.  Once CBW sees *coins as facilitating capital flight, and they have an existential risk situation, things will go a little nuts.

Here's what I think they'll do.  "By all means continue working on ethereum platform.  We love it.  But banks can't work with the *coin exchanges any longer, anywhere in the SWIFT network.  You guys have 1 week to close down shop."  Again, the CBW group doesn't care who they hurt when their precious banking system is threatened.  That's been proven time and again.

Anyhow, that's the primary risk I see to the *coin values themselves.  It may act as a safe haven, right up until they just switch off the banking links worldwide.  "As a temporary measure."  (Cyprus still has ATM limits, years after their crisis ended).

----

As for "vaporware" - I wasn't referring to the state of the ethereum smart contract interface, which seems just fine, but rather, to ethereum's promise of "industrial strength low cost world-wide-web replacement" status.  To make good on this promise, it needs to have sharding implemented and proven, as well as proof of stake.  Sharding is a super-hard problem, and even if they have "top men" working on it, it will still take a while - for design, implementation, testing, deployment - bug fixing - deployment.  The old saw: "9 women cannot make a baby in 1 month" applies.  Adding more people, or more teams, to a late software project usually ends up making it come in later, not earlier.  (See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month).

At some level, ethereum and bitcoin don't scale because they force every computer in the network (miner) to execute every single contract.  There is no division of labor.  Adding more miners doesn't make the transaction rate go faster.

Sharding fixes this, but it's not done yet.  In fact, design isn't even complete!!  Right now they just seem to be gathering requirements and having discussions, which is the very first phase.  Sharding, in a situation where people are actively trying to hose the network for fun and profit, is a very difficult problem, with no straightforward solution.  The straightforward solution was the one they did already: everyone executes everything.

Proof of stake seems easier to solve, but perhaps that's just because I haven't given it the same level of thought. :)

And the implications of this are that, right now, transaction costs for ETH are nearing $1!  That's more expensive than VISA, in many cases!   That's why I say that high performance back end is vaporware.  Unless the value provided by ethereum is really high, $1 per transaction is terrible.

You can still run the prototype ethereum platform for your own company, internally, in a cooperative environment.  That is certainly useful.  Also, if its a low volume product that is ok with a $1 transaction fee, that's ok too.  And if you're just writing in anticipation of Industrial Strength ethereum appearing eventually, well that's good too.

Longer term, transaction costs need to be 5-10 cents.  I totally agree that it will get there, eventually, but that awaits the sharding piece.  (Perhaps there's an interim solution a la segwit, but I'm not in the flow like mrees so I don't know).

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 295
Not quite vaptorware

Ethereum's killer app so far is to facilitate Initial Coin Offerings which create a new token as a layer in a contract on top of ethereum  This will lead the way to many amazing features and business models and has only just begun.

Most of these purchases have been speculation. Ethereum created entirely new languages. A new foundation and incorporated many new technologies at once. It's like somebody invented a bridge, somebody else invented steal, another,  roads, another cable wiring, another communications networks, then natural gas, electrical wiring etc all at the same time. It takes time for others to learn it and assemble to make order out of the chaos. They built it on top of one of the newest and greatest discoveries invented-  the blockchain. 

This is not a toddler, tens of thousands of new programmers are still getting their heads wrapped around blockchain itself. It isn't easy. Then the new programming languages, then the new companies - and teams and each other. This assembly will take time but has been happening at breakneck speed all things considered.

When things are running perfectly in a well-oiled experienced team - the development cycle can be expected to take about two years. This includes testing, legal, bug bounties, quality review etc. Because ethereum is a new platform and not just another well-defined platform like Windows or Linux, there are extra steps.  There is an entirely new rule book and standards to set to get all the tester, management, coders and Quality Assessment all on the same page. This takes time. So I suspect we are looking at three years plus - all things considered for the earliest pioneers with something more than a technology demo. 

Most of the things on etherscan are tech demos but there are real-life useful applications the are still gestation. We still have to hook up radien network to get microtransactions through and the network gets clogged terribly during ICO periods so transactions don't get through for a while and can be expensive.  The entire thing is still considered beta with only the second part of a four-part release cycle. It can be useful and has another real-world case that I think David forgets - it is being used to transfer money all around the world through exchanges. Very efficiently as it is finally settled in a minute vs Visa several days. Visa can be reversed for six months based on their own arbitration rules. Ethereum is final. Reversals will take a neutral arbitrator using a new business model where they are a trusted escrow - but I don't know of any yet that have taken that role.

Raiden will allow for thousands of transactions per second at microscope fees. This should be ready in months not years as sharding is expected to take. So I don't exactly agree that it is vaporware as there are several use-cases as I pointed out. But comparing it to all the things on the roadmap - it is world-changing paradigm..we've barely scratched the surface for the serious apps and use-cases. That is the lens for it appears he is viewing.  In this regard...

You ain't seen nothing yet.

 

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 109
Bancor article

Again, at present I don't have anywhere near enough knowledge on Blockchains to take an informed view on this article other than wishing to try and improve my knowledge and finding the speed of achieving such vast funding staggering.

I would suspect, Mark, Dave and Chris may find this article equally interesting, its an amazing amount of money to have been invested/speculated/gambled*   (* delete as apt) 

http://hackingdistributed.com/2017/06/19/bancor-is-flawed/

 

 

Edit: Fun fact for Chris: Authors are at Cornell.

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 295
Bingo

This was they same guy who found the fault in TheDao - which Chris and I referenced earlier. He knows his stuff.  I like what Bancor is trying to do but I missed this ICO. I would have gambled a little bit but couldn't get through on it.   In theory, the cost of gas required to perform this hack would be greater than the payoff. But I don't know if that would hold true forever with some of the enhancements coming down the road.

Still, I like to sprinkle a little bit of investments on a lot of interesting projects knowing that most will likely fail. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose in any of these crypto experiments. We are clearly in uncharted territory.  I know my suggestions have made a lot of people a ton of money - but don't get greedy.

We are overdue for some bad news.  I don't know what it will be, but there is always something that gets people into a panic and they think it's the end of the world. That's just the pattern I've seen in this space for years. We haven't had a good "Blood in the Streets" kind of moment since last summer. A bad bticoin split might do it. Perhaps some heavy regulation announcements?  Somebody will take the punch bowl away at some point. Just don't be surprised. This market alternates between FOMO and The World's About to END (WATE)? 

Just like every other business startup that happens..90% will fail. I see a lot of ICOs that have no business having a blockchain - they are just stupid. If you don't know which ones are - or not, don't do anything dumb. Learn about blockchain rather than gamble.

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 109
MaxKeiser Gold vs Block Chains

Thanks Mark, I'm sitting on the fence until I understand further.

 

Recent interview with Max Keiser and Chris Blasi

 

 http://www.maxkeiser.com/2017/06/keisers-cryptoshow-with-chris-blasi/

 

 

Afridev's picture
Afridev
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2013
Posts: 96
Gold-backed crypto?

Maybe there are already others like this, but found an article on the OneGram Coin (https://cryptoinsider.com/gold-backed-sharia-compliant-cryptocurrency-on...)? Being based on the value of gold (which I trust more then bits) there seems to be a hedge to the downside (that is assuming that the technical and legal construct the coin builds upon is solid).

Going through the whitepaper https://onegram.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/whitepaper.pdf it seems to make sense, but then again I'm not familiar enough with cryptocurrencies to understand all the fine print, and as always, the devil is in the details...

More as a means to hedge against risk then to make a quick buck. Anybody any thoughts?

Edit: maybe good to add the link to the offering too https://tokensale.onegram.org/ very funky background smiley

Edit: apparently there are other similar coins: http://www.thedailyeconomist.com/2017/05/zengold-is-newest-gold-backed-c...

mrees999's picture
mrees999
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2013
Posts: 295
dumb

Why does this need a blockchain?

The point of a blockchain is to remove the need for trust of a third party. Who holds these coins?  ...perhaps a third party?

There have been many - just gold bugs trying to shoehorn their dead product with a fresh coat of paint - they don't even truly understand the point - and are trying to trick uneducated people with the latest buzzword.

I saw a recent speech by David Morgan that was seriously awful. Considered posting on here about it to point out the several misleading statements, slight of hand, and bait and switch. But I'll save that for another audience (my list is growing).

If you don't know anything about blockchains, just know this - they are made to act as the "trust machines" between people that don't trust each other. The act to ensure records are immutable or corruptible. People and machines cannot hide something they've done. If you have several organizations\governments\companies\people that don't necessarily trust each other or data one of them keeps the gates to - perhaps you should look into creating a blockchain.

People claiming to have the gold or silver that they don't actually have has been done for thousands of years. Unless you hold it, it is unlikely that you own it and a blockchain is not going to change that. Digix Gold was the first gold-backed blockchain token..which I own exactly zero because of this reason. I believe they've started to expand beyond just that so maybe it's time to take a fresh look.

Enter somebody to 'store' it for you - all the blockchains in the world won't save you.

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4772
new code vs bitcoin

Mrees-

I am sorry to report I really can't find any way to tease you too terribly after your latest response.  :)  It does seem as though ethereum has acted as a funding mechanism for all sorts of things.  The things you mention really do seem to have value, as you say.  How to assess the value of the business and what my coin actually buys me in this mini-VC patch I'm less well-equipped to say.  Am I overpaying?  It is ridiculously cheap?  I wish I knew!

I was really interested to read about the bugs in the contract code.  I was wondering when a really serious one would show up, and how everyone would handle it.  I read a bunch of posts by an old bitcoin developer (Mike Hearn) about his dev process for writing code for the blockchain.  Wow, its a terrible environment!  I'm sure it will be a process, like any other, but I'd expect bugs to crop up now and then that end up seriously hosing people's businesses and costing millions (billions?) of dollars.

Immutable really means you can't change it.  We software people aren't used to that at all.  I'll be interested to see how long that one lasts.  Your bug, available for everyone to see, literally forever.

I ran my new forecaster code on bitcoin today; it is still projecting a move higher in the next few days, but the overall trend appears to be significantly weakening - repeating a pattern we saw back in March.

I'd honestly look to sell the next rally and watch until things got more clear.  If the pattern repeats, we probably chop sideways a bit more and the sell off hard.

 

Google trends has some interesting information.

Buy bitcoin is trailing off, which bodes poorly for its price.

Ethereum double-peaked, which explains why it's doing better vs bitcoin.

ICO is showing a pattern of higher lows and higher highs.  That looks like it still has room to run.  FWIW.

Given the trends data, it seems like the ICOs are the place to be.  Especially if you're a founder.  I wanna be a founder!

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2365
on being a founder...

Dave said,

Given the trends data, it seems like the ICOs are the place to be.  Especially if you're a founder.  I wanna be a founder!

Well... why not be one then?  We should evolve this discussion to coin ideas.. we should harness the brain power here to see if there might be the seed of a unique exploitation of the blockchain.  Between Mark, Dave, and many others here we have a very powerful distributed virtual brain.. yes?  There may also be folks willing to get together with some seed capital.  

What can the blockchain do for the 3E's?  Could we build an immutable library of information there that could not be destroyed?  Could we host a consciousness raising project there, in digital space ?  How about a coin just for kids that captures their imagination in some way.  The possibilities are endless.     

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2365
Anybody playing in the Civic (coin) crowdsource coming up?

https://tokensale.civic.com/

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4772
endless possibilities

From my startup experience, usually being a founder requires two things: undying passion for your creation, and a whole lot of work.  And by that, I mean it really was a lot of work.  Did I mention it was a lot of work?  It also helps if you're basically ignorant about just how much work it is going to be.  :)

So we need to think of something that's just so cool that I just can't say no to doing it.

I had this education startup idea that could almost certainly benefit from coins somehow.  But it was a lot of work.  I do think it would be quite popular, however. 

Can PP here benefit from coins?   Coins are useful for transactions, for delayed events, for automatically executing an agreement when a condition is met.  Its an automated, trusted third party.  How can we use that?

 

 

Afridev's picture
Afridev
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2013
Posts: 96
Jim...

That looks like a 'big hairy goal'; I do like that. Let the systems support the 3E's for once. Posted a comment last week on a model that could be used to fund a documentary see https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/horror-movie-funded-ethereum-crowdsale/ but there seemed to have been very little interest for the idea. This approach can potentially be used for many types of initiatives that are supportive for the 3 E's. I think the capacities that are present in the PP community could be mobilised in a network approach for something that goes beyond the PP platform (all while recognising PP obviously).

If there would be something that I could do in that initiative then I'd definitely be interested to play a supporting role (could be technical around the concept of resilience, capacity building approaches, making concepts accessible). Wouldn't have to be fully remunerated either smiley; getting the principles out are too important.

 

 

jjhollywood's picture
jjhollywood
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 8 2017
Posts: 2
Sitting Out the Civic ICO

No, going to sit on the sidelines for this one. Too much competition coming into the identity space daily, and we already have at least one seemingly solid competitor with stronger technology as well as mobile OS capability, which Civic does not offer. Don't see Civic as having the potential to dominate this space.

jjhollywood's picture
jjhollywood
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 8 2017
Posts: 2
Sitting Out the Civic ICO

No, going to sit on the sidelines for this one. Too much competition coming into the identity space daily, and we already have at least one seemingly solid competitor with stronger technology as well as mobile OS capability, which Civic does not offer. Don't see Civic as having the potential to dominate this space. Did stake a healthy position in Veritaseum, which seems could be the stuff of [blockchain] dreams.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4772
bitcoin update

The 3-day forecaster turned bearish yesterday.  Sorry I didn't spot it earlier.  Momentum clearly looks to be pointing lower.

If that target date of Aug 1 is going to (hypothetically) be marking a low, and we have another 5 weeks until then...it could get pretty ugly.  Some support @ 2000, and some more @ 1650.

Trends:

Buy bitcoin continues to fall from its peak of May 25th.

Buy ethereum has double-topped; second (lower) peak on June 12th.

ICO continues to climb, with the most recent peak June 12th; it continues to have a pattern of higher lows, which is bullish.

 

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 2799
Good Visualization of Crypto-Coin Market Sizes

From a new Fortune Magazine report:

Cryptocurrency Market Share chart

Very impressive to see how far all the cryptos -- but particularly Ethereum -- have grown in value since last year.

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