PM End of Week Market Commentary - 4/21/2017

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Sat, Apr 22, 2017 - 7:40am

 

On Friday gold rose +2.40 to 1285.90 on moderately heavy volume, while silver fell -0.03 to 17.98 on extremely heavy volume. Silver was under selling pressure again on Friday; this time there were no obvious spikes, just a steady, heavy pressure, with all the rallies being sold. Once the pressure let up, silver bounced back close to even.

The metals reversed this week, with juniors leading seniors and silver leading gold – unfortunately, leading them down. Miners are below all 3 moving averages, while palladium has managed to remain quite close to its highs, as has gold. Gold did best of the gold/silver/miners set, while silver did worst.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch EMA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Platinum $PLAT -0.23% -5.11% rising falling falling falling ma50 on 2017-04-21 2017-04-21
Palladium $PALL -0.25% 30.69% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2017-04-20 2017-04-21
Gold $GOLD -0.33% 2.91% rising rising falling rising ma200 on 2017-04-11 2017-04-21
Copper $COPPER -0.45% 13.50% falling falling rising falling ema9 on 2017-04-18 2017-04-21
Silver $SILVER -3.02% 5.42% falling rising falling rising ma200 on 2017-04-20 2017-04-21
Senior Miners GDX -3.79% 1.55% falling falling falling falling ma50 on 2017-04-20 2017-04-21
Silver Miners SIL -5.67% 7.45% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2017-04-19 2017-04-21
Junior Miners GDXJ -5.89% -0.23% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2017-04-13 2017-04-21

Gold fell -4.00 on the week, first making a new high on Monday to 1297.40, and then retreating back to find support on the 9 EMA. While silver was under assault all week long, gold buyers kept buying the dips, so when the spikes would sometimes hit gold too, the moves didn't go very far, or last for long.  Gold printed a swing high on Wednesday.

Friday's candle print was a spinning top, which the code felt was somewhat bearish.  If gold loses the 9, that's bad news.

The June rate-increase chances dropped -5% to end the week at 53%.

COMEX GC open interest rose +14,773 contracts.

Silver plunged -0.56 [-3.02%] this week, dropping 5 days out of 5. Daily volume was immense; it appeared to me as though there was a concerted effort made by the commercials to hammer prices lower. Price spikes (down) happened almost every day during US trading hours, and were for the most part completely uncorrelated with other market movements. Open interest climbed every single day; normally OI drops as price drops, because the commercials close out their short positions (ringing the cash register) after they've run the stops on managed money. That didn't happen this week, even with all those down spike attacks. So far, managed money is hanging tough. Candle print on Friday was a spinning top, which the code rated as slightly bearish. While silver is now below the 9 and the 200 MA, it did seem to find support at the 50.

COMEX SI open interest rose 7,922 contracts, or 1231 tons of paper silver. Total OI: 227k contracts, or 36,654 tons of paper silver, the highest OI ever. Global annual production for silver: 27,557 tons [2016].

I haven't seen a set of repeated efforts like this before – at least not since the highs in 2011. And with silver at $18, one has to wonder, why all the fuss? My only thought is that someone from the official sector is trying to use the silver futures market to keep a lid on gold – prior to the French election – since gold and silver prices are usually quite well correlated.

On the week, the gold/silver ratio rose +1.93 to 71.50.

Miners had a bad week, with GDX down -3.79% and GDXJ plunging -5.89%. The big move happened on Wednesday, when both ETFs sold off hard on heavy volume. This week, GDX:$GOLD ratio tipped over and sank hard, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio continued moving downhill. There were some signs of buying interest in the juniors, but they were not enough to reverse the downtrend. Candle print on Friday for GDX was a spinning top/NR7, which the code rated as neutral.  On the chart, we see that GDX found support at the 50 MA and bounced feebly higher on Thursday and Friday.  A lame rally following a heavy selling day is usually bearish.

USD

The buck fell -0.60 to 99.83 this week. The star this week was the Pound, which was up +2.29%, driven sharply higher by UK PM May's announcement of new elections scheduled for June 9. With the UK Labor party in a state of disarray, it is thought that May will end up with a much larger majority in Parliament. The market no longer seems to be concerned about a hard BRExit. Euro also did well (+1.05%) which was a bit surprising. The currency markets do not seem overly concerned about the elections in France – although it could also be that the US is not quite the safe haven it was prior to Trump. If Le Pen wins big, and the buck doesn't move, that will be one clue.

US Equities/SPX

SPX rose +19.74 [+0.85%] to 2348.69 this week, with the market taking two medium-sized steps forward and two smaller steps back. Trump's tax plan may show up next week (I'm sure it will be “really outstanding”) and that prospect seemed to re-ignite the Trump reflation equity rally to some degree - at least enough to pull SPX back above its 9 EMA. The equity market is not yet back into an uptrend, although it did manage to print a swing low. Step #1 is crossing the 50 MA, and step #2 is closing above the prior high at 2378.

The sector map isn't so conclusive this week; homebuilders and industrials were in the lead, while energy and sickcare brought up the rear. Financials had a relatively feeble bounce this week; they have not been able to close above the 9 EMA, and if you are looking for an SPX rally, you really want them in the lead.

VIX fell -1.33 to 14.63.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch EMA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Homebuilders XHB 2.23% 8.03% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2017-04-17 2017-04-21
Industrials XLI 2.17% 16.24% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2017-04-20 2017-04-21
Cons Discretionary XLY 1.96% 10.84% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2017-04-17 2017-04-21
Materials XLB 1.73% 11.35% rising rising rising falling ma50 on 2017-04-21 2017-04-21
Technology XLK 1.53% 20.27% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2017-04-20 2017-04-21
Financials XLF 1.14% 22.25% falling falling rising falling ema9 on 2017-04-21 2017-04-21
Telecom XTL 1.06% 23.62% falling falling rising falling ema9 on 2017-04-21 2017-04-21
REIT RWR 0.87% 3.50% rising rising falling rising ma200 on 2017-04-17 2017-04-21
Cons Staples XLP 0.29% 6.24% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2017-04-21 2017-04-21
Utilities XLU 0.10% 10.23% rising rising falling rising ema9 on 2017-04-21 2017-04-21
Healthcare XLV -0.41% 2.73% falling rising rising rising ema9 on 2017-04-21 2017-04-21
Energy XLE -2.19% 2.59% falling falling rising falling ema9 on 2017-04-13 2017-04-21
Gold Miners GDX -3.79% 1.55% falling falling falling falling ma50 on 2017-04-20 2017-04-21

Gold in Other Currencies

Gold dropped in almost all currencies this week, and was down -13.44 in XDR.

Rates & Commodities

TLT rose +0.06%, first screaming higher on Tuesday, and then declining for the remainder of the week. TLT remains above its 9 EMA, and in an uptrend. Candle print on Friday was a spinning top, which the code felt was somewhat bearish; Friday was a failed rally, with TLT ending the day unchanged.

JNK rose +0.46% this week, ending the week near the top of its recent trading range. JNK is moving slowly higher along with SPX, hinting at risk on.

CRB fell a huge -3.14% this week, driven lower mostly because of the plunge in crude oil. All sectors fell, and CRB ended the week at a new multi-month low, which reinforces the pattern of lower highs and lower lows that mark CRB's downtrend. CRB is down almost 8% from the highs set in January.

Crude plunged -3.55 [-6.68%] to 49.63, dropping five straight days, blowing through its 9 EMA as well as the 50 MA before finding support down at the 200. The market was not pleased with the EIA report on Wednesday, which showed a modest crude inventory draw of -1.0m barrels, and a bearish gasoline inventory build of +1.5m barrels.  Friday's long black candle was more bearish than bullish; it suggests we probably have further to fall next week. It was a bad week for crude.

Physical Supply Indicators

* SGE premium to COMEX is now at +7.52 over COMEX.

* The GLD ETF tonnage on hand rose +9.77 tons, with 859 tons in inventory.

* ETF Premium/Discount to NAV; gold closing of 1285.90 and silver closing of 17.98:

 PHYS 10.59 +0.47% to NAV [up]
 PSLV 6.79 -0.32% to NAV [up]
 CEF 13.10 -5.90% to NAV [up]

* Bullion Vault gold (https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do#!/orderboard) showed no premiums for gold and silver.

* Big bars premiums at HAA were: gold [400oz, NY] 2.18% and silver [1000oz, NY] 3.06%.

Futures Positioning

COT report is through April 18th, when gold closed at 1291.50, and silver at 18.28.

This week in gold, the commercials added +23k contracts short, about a 7% increase, while managed money added +19k longs, a 10% increase. Gold commercial shorts are climbing briskly, but are not at a point yet where the COT report would indicate a top might be ahead.

In silver, the commercials added +2.4k shorts, about a 1.5% increase, while managed money bailed out of 3.9k longs, a 3.6% decrease. Commercials have the highest short concentration in the history of the series once again this week, and the open interest is also at the highest levels in history too.

Paper silver (total open interest) is about 130% of global annual silver production. I'm not sure if that's an all-time high also, but its a uniquely high ratio amongst the metals.  Newly-created paper silver is definitely helping to keep a lid on the move higher.

Gold Manipulation Report

There were no after-hours spikes seen this week. Instead, all the spikes were concentrated in and around US market hours. There were perhaps half a dozen spikes, all apparently targeted at driving gold and silver lower. The spikes in gold had only a modest effect, while the silver spikes served to move price steadily lower.

Eurozone Status

  • French Presidential Elections: first round: 23 April 2017. That's tomorrow! Melenchon's momentum has stalled. Current numbers: Macron 24.25%, Le Pen 22.625%, Fillon 19.25%, and Melenchon at 19.125%. How will the ISIS-inspired attack in Paris affect the anti-immigrant (Le Pen) vote? I'm guessing its a positive for her.

  • German Elections; October 2017: currently the polls show Merkel 35/Shulz 30. Shulz is slowly losing ground. Both parties are pro-Euro. Non-event.

  • Greek bailout; June 2017 they need to pay 7 billion Euros. Next Eurogroup meeting on May 22nd.  This week, Greece reported a big budget surplus for 2016; some 3.9% of GDP.  I'm sure it won't matter.  There will be no debt relief for you, Greece.

  • Turkey & the migrants: no news. Erdogan won his referendum – by hook or by crook – with an extremely slim 51.4%-48.6% majority. There was a whole lot of review by the western press, but no new events about the migrant situation.

  • Italian Elections: no progress towards an early election; Grillo's 5-star party remains at 29%, which is a 3 point lead over the PD, their next closes competitor, who is slowly losing ground.

I saw a semi-amusing article - the headline of which spoke volumes about how the EU elite view the great unwashed masses, published on what appears to be the Mouthpiece-of-the-EU website.  I'm sure the irony was unintentional.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/the-brief-has-democracy-become-too-dangerous/

I've heard the same thing said by Chinese citizens.  Democracy is just too dangerous.

Summary

This week, gold's rally faltered and retraced somewhat after the commercials beat on silver for five days in a row. Money fled the miners in response. A promise from Mnuchin that we'll see a fantastic tax plan next week caused a brief equity market rally, the buck fell after Trump said it was too high, the UK announced new elections, and the Euro rose ahead of the first round elections in France.

The GDX:$GOLD ratio plummeted, and the GDXJ:GDX ratio fell too.  Miners look ill, although there is still some dip-buying going on in the juniors.

COT report shows an increasing short position for the commercials in gold, and an all time high short position for the commercials in silver. Open interest for silver actually rose every day this week, which is relatively unusual in a downtrend. So far, at least, managed money isn't fleeing silver wholesale.

Gold and silver big bar shortage indicators shows no signs shortage in the west; ETF premiums were higher and GLD tonnage rose, and big bar premiums are at normal levels. In Shanghai, premiums remain positive, but unchanged vs last week.

The results from the French first round elections will be available about 2pm EDT on Sunday. That gives you about five hours to prepare for the futures markets which open...I think its 6pm or 7pm Sunday evening.

If the results come back and Le Pen hasn't exceeded her poll numbers, I suspect the gold safe haven trade will unwind fairly dramatically. Most of France uses paper ballots, which makes the election much more difficult to rig.

What's my call? Len Pen will exceed her poll numbers by a significant margin, probably enough to give her a first round victory over Macron. This call is also going with the trend on immigration, nationalism, and overall disgust at the status quo.

If I'm wrong, we probably see a big correction as the commercials (and perhaps other actors) jump all over gold and silver as they did this past week.

Trend-following code says:

Uptrend: copper, SPX.

Downtrend: gold, silver, miners, platinum, crude, natgas, long bond, USD.

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18 Comments

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
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Lolz

Just what the commercials were waiting for.  They got it right again (or rather, they made it right).  Nobody look at the gold price for the next month or so.  That is all.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Yeah right!

Suuuuure.  This all makes sense now.  The ""markets"" are so wildly relieved at Le Pen advancing suddenly that gold has to be smashed, stock futures bought hand over fist, even as the dollar drops.

Instead we might note that every time there's been a politically upsetting event, ""someone"" buys this and sell that in such vicious quantities that the next few months are spent in various up and downtrends to work out the assault on common sense and liquidity that the ""someone"" provided.

I'm calling shenanigans, of course.

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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Le Pen advancing?

Chris-

I don't think the market is focused on Le Pen advancing.

Market was worried about 2 things:

1) A Le Pen/Melenchon result

2) Le Pen doing much better than her polling results showed.

Melenchon lost, which the market likes for sure.

And from what we can see, Le Pen did about as well as her polling numbers suggested.  This suggests that in the next round, most likely the polls will be accurate, and the current polling numbers between Macron and Le Pen is 62/38, which is a massive lead for Macron.

This of course means my call for Le Pen to outperform her polling numbers was wrong.  :)

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Maybe...
davefairtex wrote:

This of course means my call for Le Pen to outperform her polling numbers was wrong.  :)

Maybe...but perhaps there won't be 500,000 extra ballots mailed to out of country citizens again?

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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500k ballots

Maybe...but perhaps there won't be 500,000 extra ballots mailed to out of country citizens again?

I'm totally prepared to believe they are playing games there.  But...by the numbers:

French registered voters: (2012) 46M

2017 turnout (estimated): 81% (37.26M)

If all 500k extra ballots went for Macron, that's a shift of (maximum) 1.3% = (500k / 37.25M)

My math isn't exactly right, but it should be close enough.

I think Le Pen needed to beat Macron by a 3-5% margin for the market to project that she might "pull a Trump" in France.

Now we pivot to Trump tax plans, government shutdowns, the UK election (and the prospects for a straight out walkaway BRExit), Greece, and the eventual Italian elections.

Its certainly not what I had projected, but - since I'm wrong all the time, I'm used to it by now.  :)

The spike up in the Euro has kept gold from collapsing, but I'm not going to like looking at the gold-in-Euros chart tomorrow, I suspect.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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bitcoin safe haven?

So after gold had a bit of a problem after the French election (at the same time the Euro shot the moon), I asked myself the question, did the price of bitcoin (traded 24/7 - an awfully nice feature) move on the news?

Here's an intraday bitcoin chart (1H bars) covering the time that the election results were known.

I can't see any evidence at all that the election results affected price, either one way or the other.

Make of that what you will!

Eannao's picture
Eannao
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Silver - Buy the dips?

Dave,

great solid analysis as always,with some nice lines thrown in ("There will be no debt relief for you, Greece")

This hammering-down of silver by the commercials is effectively a form of market manipulation, right? This will end one day (or be overwhelmed), so isn't this presenting us with a good buying opportunity in Silver? Shouldn't we buy the dips?

It seems like there is something significant going on here in the Silver market, given that the Commercial shorts are at all-time-highs. Perhaps they are finding it difficult to drive the price down this time?

 

 

 

 

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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silver

E-

This hammering-down of silver by the commercials is effectively a form of market manipulation, right? This will end one day (or be overwhelmed), so isn't this presenting us with a good buying opportunity in Silver? Shouldn't we buy the dips?

Oh yeah, I haven't seen anything like this for quite a while.  Manipulation for sure.

The standard goldbug line is that trading volume somehow suppresses price.  They talk about how "more tons were traded at COMEX each day than were mined all year" or something like that.  To me, if you and I swap a ton of gold back and forth a million times a day, that doesn't do anything to the price of gold itself.  Its a million tons of trading volume, but nobody cares.  In the same way, if you print a trillion dollars, but store it in your basement, its not inflationary.

However, if you were to go asteroid mining, and drop a 10,000 ton gold asteroid onto the market, that's going to crush the price of gold, at least in my world.  Only 10k tons (vs 1m tons) but it has vastly more significance to the market, because its 10k volume on just the sell-side of the ledger.  Price has to drop in order to find enough buyers to absorb all 10k tons.

Right now there is record open interest - paper silver supply - totaling 1.3x annual production.  Last time I looked, a few years back, paper silver supply was 0.9x annual production.  If it weren't for the paper silver, the price would almost certainly be quite a bit higher.

Once confidence in the system snaps, all that paper silver demand will be transferred over to physical silver demand.  And of course there won't be enough physical silver, so price will have to jump higher.

I wouldn't wait impatiently for that day though - it will come when it comes.  But the price should adjust dramatically higher when it does.  In the meantime, we're all getting cheaper silver as a side benefit.  (unless you're a miner, in which case you don't appreciate the benefit quite so much).

Silver's "paper supply" is far more unbalanced than gold is, and it just keeps getting bigger.

It sure does look as though managed money is buying the dips these days rather than panicking out.  Maybe they've finally - at long last - become wise to the tricks of the commercials.  "Buy on the spikes down."

Its hard to say if today will be the reversal.  The bounce off the early Asia lows looked decent, but I'm not sure it is ready for the low just yet.  We might need to get a bit more oversold.

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
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Trading Volume or Selling Volume?

Dave, from what I've been able to gather, it's not that the trading volume overwhelms the price.  It's the huge amount of "metal" ("metal" = paper) that is dumped for sale in one instant.  You and I could trade a billion shares back and forth all day and push the price lower or higher.  But while we're doing that, if Chris came in and dropped a trillion shares into the market, the price would crater.  That's the point I think the goldbugs are making, at least from what I've heard.

Anyway, I believe the commercials probably believe Le Pen will lose, NK will be resolved, things will settle in the Middle East, and the debt ceiling can will be kicked.  It would explain why they continue to increase their short positions.  And they'll probably be correct on all fronts.

Gold will probably crash under $1200 and silver under $17 very soon and they'll make a ton of $$.  Either that, or they're wrong and they get squeezed.  They're hardly ever wrong, so I'm going with Option A.

Long term, we know how this ends.  But who knows if that will be in our lifetimes or not.  As much as we can see the end game, they can invent new ways to extend and pretend.  It can't exist that way forever, but it may be far, far longer than any of us can imagine.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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gold under 1200?

CR-

Maybe it was the past I'm thinking of.  I'd read stuff like, "more gold is traded daily on COMEX than is produced yearly by the mines!"  The horror.  They weren't talking about specific actions, just the general concept of "overall trading volume = prima facie evidence for paper market manipulation."

What you talk about - dumping 5k contracts onto the market in a moment - is something else entirely, and I'm in complete agreement.

As for PM today - I'm not seeing a panic out of PM at the moment.  That's a good sign.

I'm not sure we see a dive to $1200.  It just isn't feeling that way right now.

If you look at a futures chart, while the gap down was decent sized (esp. in Euro terms), gold actually bounced.  Hammer candle.   Silver looks even better.

It feels like a "cover short on the news" move.

Of course it will depend on where we close.  If we have a solid close, my gut says this is probably a buy.

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
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Yep

Yeah Dave, it's been a pretty big turn-around.  The reversal magnitude was a bit surprising to me.  I guess I'm just cynical due to all the years of beat-down and the ongoing deformation.  Plus, I'm an NC State fan, so I've learned well to never expect anything good to happen. sad

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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aim low

CR-

Plus, I'm an NC State fan, so I've learned well to never expect anything good to happen. sad

My mom used to have this sticker on her fridge which comes to mind: "aim low: avoid disappointment."

I know its hard, but try to be as neutral as possible about whatever happens.  I mean, when my trades go against me that's not really so easy, but for instance today, I saw the sell-off, and I still have my CEF and PSLV, and I said, "I wonder what will happen."  It bounced, and then dropped, and bounced again.  "Isn't that interesting?"

If you treat the market like an insect pinned to an examination table, I think its more helpful to the psyche.  "Oh look, it wiggled."

I actually think me yelling and screaming about the market doing something I don't like is actively harmful to both my trading results and my own personal happiness.  People may think I don't care what happens - and in truth, that's what I strive for.  Happiness is far more important.  I try to pick and choose what I get upset by.

As my tennis coach used to tell me, "Your pulse should never go above resting."  Don't get upset when it drops, don't get too excited when it launches.

Otherwise, you will end up being exhausted by all the back-and-forth, and when the interesting stuff starts to happen, you'll be too worn out to jump on board.  That's how the market seems to work.  Just when you're so tired you just can't make the trade, that's when it takes off.  Market acts to frustrate the most people possible.  Its not only you this happens to, its all of us.

I know you know this already.

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thc0655
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Wait patiently. Strike hard.

I've gone through a similar transformation as you Dave, and now I'm detached from the emotion of investing (for the most part).

I know its hard, but try to be as neutral as possible about whatever happens.  I mean, when my trades go against me that's not really so easy, but for instance today, I saw the sell-off, and I still have my CEF and PSLV, and I said, "I wonder what will happen."  It bounced, and then dropped, and bounced again.  "Isn't that interesting?"

As my tennis coach used to tell me, "Your pulse should never go above resting."  Don't get upset when it drops, don't get too excited when it launches.

Otherwise, you will end up being exhausted by all the back-and-forth, and when the interesting stuff starts to happen, you'll be too worn out to jump on board.  That's how the market seems to work.  Just when you're so tired you just can't make the trade, that's when it takes off.  Market acts to frustrate the most people possible.  Its not only you this happens to, its all of us.

I've learned a lot from how owls hunt.  It doesn't look like hunting as we humans imagine hunting.  It looks a lot like sitting around.  But the owl picks a good branch on which to observe "the market" (a field or forest where his prey lives).  Then the owl remains mostly motionless while his incredible hearing and eyesight are quite active observing "the market" for opportunities.  If there are no prey to pounce on after a good long while, he'll move to a different location and resume "sitting around."  Nature videos of owls hunting often leave most of this behavior out of the final cut because it tends to be boring for humans, and instead the film editors pack the final cut with owls launching from a perch and pouncing on their prey.  But the owls don't pace back and forth on their branches, huffing and puffing with emotion, kicking objects in anger.  They just sit and observe.  But once they see their prey, they strike hard.  I try to do the same thing between strikes: calm, patient observing punctuated by occasional strikes.  Just like you. cool

 

 
Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
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davefairtex wrote: CR- Plus,
davefairtex wrote:

CR-

Plus, I'm an NC State fan, so I've learned well to never expect anything good to happen. sad

My mom used to have this sticker on her fridge which comes to mind: "aim low: avoid disappointment."

I know its hard, but try to be as neutral as possible about whatever happens.  I mean, when my trades go against me that's not really so easy, but for instance today, I saw the sell-off, and I still have my CEF and PSLV, and I said, "I wonder what will happen."  It bounced, and then dropped, and bounced again.  "Isn't that interesting?"

If you treat the market like an insect pinned to an examination table, I think its more helpful to the psyche.  "Oh look, it wiggled."

I actually think me yelling and screaming about the market doing something I don't like is actively harmful to both my trading results and my own personal happiness.  People may think I don't care what happens - and in truth, that's what I strive for.  Happiness is far more important.  I try to pick and choose what I get upset by.

As my tennis coach used to tell me, "Your pulse should never go above resting."  Don't get upset when it drops, don't get too excited when it launches.

Otherwise, you will end up being exhausted by all the back-and-forth, and when the interesting stuff starts to happen, you'll be too worn out to jump on board.  That's how the market seems to work.  Just when you're so tired you just can't make the trade, that's when it takes off.  Market acts to frustrate the most people possible.  Its not only you this happens to, its all of us.

I know you know this already.

I'm not quite as bad as I make out.  I'm seriously apathetic when it comes to NC State athletics, because they just can't get out of their own way.  As far as the market goes, I expect the manipulation to continue.  But as you say, it's wise to be in observation mode instead of John McEnroe tennis racket-destroying mode.  Speaking of observations, it looks like we're going to close near the highs of the day.  I bet your code will like that. :)

Anyway, your words are wise and always good to hear!

On another note, it sounds like the entire Senate has been called to the White House today for a briefing on NK.  That seems unusual.  I wonder what that means?  War with NK (while I think it's unlikely) should be good for gold.

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
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Dive

Dave, it would have been interesting to see what your code would have said about the action in gold and silver yesterday.  My guess is that it would have been bullish.  Today's action is straight down so far.

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
Status: Gold Member (Online)
Joined: Jul 26 2016
Posts: 323
Cold Rain wrote:Dave, it
Cold Rain wrote:

Dave, it would have been interesting to see what your code would have said about the action in gold and silver yesterday.  My guess is that it would have been bullish.  Today's action is straight down so far.  Maybe it'll change later, but things are looking pretty bearish to me.  Of course, the stock market is loving life.

Cold Rain's picture
Cold Rain
Status: Gold Member (Online)
Joined: Jul 26 2016
Posts: 323
Ug

I don't know why I can't delete the post above.  I quoted my previous post instead of editing it.  Anyway, the quoted post is also the edited post.  But I can't delete and fix it, for some reason.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5062
sorry

I was a bit late with my post today.  Was a bit overwhelmed with some other stuff.  But done now.

Sorry about that!

Bonds aren't helping much; TLT is off, and overall the commodities look pretty unhappy.  And SPX is now starting to rally a bit more seriously before market open.

I didn't get any real clear buy signal from PM yesterday.  Silver looked good, but that's it.  And today silver looks unhappy, but - wait until the first hour is over and then we'll know more.

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