PM Daily Market Commentary - 12/21/2016

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 4:39am

 

Gold fell -0.70 to 1133.20 on light volume, while silver fell -0.17 to 15.97 on moderate volume. Today, not even a falling dollar could encourage buyers to appear for PM – at least in the west anyway.

Gold did stage a modest rally in Asia and in London on the dollar weakness, but once the US market opened, gold sold off and then traded sideways for the remainder of the day. Candle print is a doji, which does not help us as far as direction. Song remains the same – gold is below the 9 EMA, within its recent consolidation range, and in a downtrend. Gold's inability to rally even with a weakening dollar is not a good sign.

Rate rise chances (May 2017) rose to 31%.

Gold open interest at COMEX fell -2,394 contracts.

Silver sold off harder than gold, dropping slightly below round number 16. Candle print was a bearish-looking “closing black marubozu”, which is just somewhat bearish. Silver under-performed gold, pushing the gold/silver ratio up +0.68 to 70.94. That's bearish.  Silver remains in a downtrend.

Miners had a very narrow trading range; GDX fell -0.21% on moderate volume, and GDXJ was off -1.16% on light volume. Candle print for GDX was a spinning top, which was mildly bearish. Not much happened today in the miners, which remain in a downtrend.

Platinum fell -0.48%, palladium dropped -1.63%, and copper fell -0.40%. Palladium is having real troubles, down 5 of the last 5 days; it is very oversold at this point. Copper is struggling to put in a low at 2.50; it is only slightly oversold.

USD fell -0.26 to 103.02; it was off substantially more before rebounding. Candle print was a bearish “tasuki line” which could well mark the top: 49%. The Euro is trying to mark a low here around 104. Do we think it can?

We have a mostly-publicly-funded Italian bank rescue on deck; what does that mean? Some simple math goes as follows: taken together, the Italian banks have 320 billion Euros of non-performing loans. The banks have written that batch of loans down to 40 cents.  Market value is around 20 cents.  More or less, that's a 64 billion Euro hole that the Italian government is trying to plug with 20 billion Euros. It probably won't work, but it certainly is better than the last effort that was only 5 billion Euros. Once the Italian government actually pulls the trigger, the Euro might well respond with a rally.  Can kicked, prior to all the elections in Europe.

Crude fell -1.00 to 52.51, dropping sharply after the petroleum status report showed an bearish inventory build of +2.3 million barrels. Candle print was a “bearish engulfing”, which has a 33% chance of marking a top, which is not all that bearish for this candle pattern.  Crude remains above its 9 EMA, but the sell-off post EIA report was fairly intense. I wouldn't be surprised to see some follow-through tomorrow.

SPX fell -5.58 to 2265.18. Sickcare led the market lower (-0.56%) while energy managed a rally (XLE:+0.16%). The SPX candle print was a two candle swing high; 47% chance of marking the top. Still, VIX fell -0.18 to 11.27. Puts are cheap: the holidays are generally low volatility times, and who wants to pay up for protection when most of the traders are heading off for the holidays?  Rumor has it that people are waiting to sell the Trump rally after the tax deadline of Dec 31st.

TLT rose +0.44%, moving back above its 9 EMA. TLT appears to be slowly – very slowly – putting in a low. If I was short, with a medium-term trading horizon, I'd probably consider closing my short position after today.

JNK rallied +0.22%; it has entirely retraced the brisk drop that followed FOMC last week. JNK remains relatively strong.

CRB rose +0.11%; commodities are chopping sideways, above the 50 & 200, but below the 9.

While there wasn't much actual change, the total lack of buyers given the dollar drop isn't a great sign. I had hoped that silver and the miners would draw in more buyers when the buck finally did decide to drop, but that just didn't happen. As a result, we probably have further to fall.  More likely than not.

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6 Comments

reflector's picture
reflector
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2011
Posts: 267
working

hurray, the silver price widget on peakprosperity is working again.

to celebrate, here is a documentary from the history channel on silver mining, past and present (44 min)

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 2934
Silver Price Fixed

Glad to see you noticed it so quickly, Rector. That pesky glitch was a real bugger to fix.

But fixed it is, and I *think* we have a solution in place that will keep all the price info in the homepage's "Today's Market" module seemlessly updated going forward.

And Peak Prosperity's new mascot, my silver lab, Boston, is particularly pleased to learn that all is now well with the price of her favorite metal :)

She wishes you all a Merry Christmas!

locksmithuk's picture
locksmithuk
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 19 2011
Posts: 114
Silver fixing
Adam Taggart wrote:

Glad to see you noticed it so quickly, Rector. That pesky glitch was a real bugger to fix.

But fixed it is, and I *think* we have a solution in place that will keep all the price info in the homepage's "Today's Market" module seemlessly updated going forward.

And Peak Prosperity's new mascot, my silver lab, Boston, is particularly pleased to learn that all is now well with the silver price :)

She wishes you all a Merry Christmas!

 

Never thought I'd see the day when PP involved itself in the 'fixing' of silver futures. Dear oh dear, Adam - what has become of this site?  :)

 

Ha! If nothing else you would've got Jim's heart racing with your banner "Silver price fixed".

DennisC's picture
DennisC
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 19 2011
Posts: 271
Double Entendre or Parapraxis

Anywho, seriously cute poochie!

tricky rick's picture
tricky rick
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 9 2011
Posts: 92
that was a fix I could live with...

Adam... you know, I had no problem with the silver FIX at $19.06.  Matter of fact, thought it might be your way of putting a threshold (or bottom) to the manipulation.  Paper price could swim around under it but eventually it will rise to the surface - and beyond!

Oh well, reality returns (bitch that it is) ... Good looking Pup, love dogs - time for a good one?

                                                                         The Dog’s Diary

8:00 am - Dog food!     My favorite thing!
9:30 am - A car ride!     My favorite thing!
9:40 am - A walk in the park!     My favorite thing! 
10:30 am - Got rubbed and petted!     My favorite thing!
12:00 pm - Milk bones!     My favorite thing!
1:00 pm - Played in the yard!     My favorite thing!
3:00 pm - Wagged my tail!    My favorite thing!
5:00 pm - Dinner!    My favorite thing!
7:00 pm - Got to play ball!    My favorite thing!
8:00 pm - Wow! Watched TV with the people!    My favorite thing!
11:00 pm - Sleeping on the bed!    My favorite thing!
 

The Cat’s Diary

Day 983 of My Captivity

My captors continue to taunt me with bizarre little dangling objects. They dine lavishly on fresh meat, while the other inmates and I are fed hash or some sort of dry nuggets. Although I make my contempt for the rations perfectly clear, I nevertheless must eat something in order to keep up my strength.

The only thing that keeps me going is my dream of escape. In an attempt to disgust them, I once again vomit on the carpet. Today I decapitated a mouse and dropped its headless body at their feet. I had hoped this would strike fear into their hearts, since it clearly demonstrates my capabilities. However, they merely made condescending comments about what a “good little hunter” I am. Bastards!

There was some sort of assembly of their accomplices tonight. I was placed in solitary confinement for the duration of the event. However, I could hear the noises and smell the food. I overheard that my confinement was due to the power of “allergies.” I must learn what this means, and how to use it to my advantage.

Today I was almost successful in an attempt to assassinate one of my tormentors by weaving around his feet as he was walking. I must try this again tomorrow, but at the top of the stairs.

I am convinced that the other prisoners here are flunkies and snitches. The dog receives special privileges. He is regularly released, and seems to be more than willing to return. He is obviously retarded. The bird must be an informant. I observe him communicate with the guards regularly. I am certain that he reports my every move. My captors have arranged protective custody for him in an elevated cell, so he is safe. For now ...

tricky

PS    don't know who came up with that but looking for future editions!

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: May 3 2014
Posts: 474
Gone to the dogs?

It appears obvious to me that this particular PP site has, literally, gone to the dogs. Hopefully the silver market doesn't go to the cats.

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