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Daily Digest 7/16 - Life Diversity Below 'Safe' Levels, Are You Ready For Housing Bubble 2.0?

Saturday, July 16, 2016, 9:51 AM

Economy

Housing Bubble 2.0 - Are You Ready For This? (Kevin J.)

Not shown in these charts of absolute index levels is the three-straight months of national yy price gain deceleration. Moreover, the CS captures prices up to 7-months old at the tail so conditions are already a lot different than shown here.

The Misconceptions And Pitfalls Of Options Trading (Alex B.)

The complexities of options are not well understood by most of the retail trading world. Nevertheless, they’re highly attractive because of their limited downside, unlimited upside, and embedded leverage. Who hasn’t thought about buying that call option on the hot biotech stock that returns 1000%? Or the way out-of-the money put on the SPY that triples a trading account in a nasty crash? We all visualize that outcome and crave it.

Jim Rickards & Max Keiser: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Herman J.)

In this episode, Max and Stacy talk to Jim Rickards, author of The New Case for Gold, about gold as a solution to the world’s debt problems. They also discuss the solution that the leading global powers will present: rolling up the world’s bad debt into the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which is why China has been buying SDRs on the market.

Too Late For Gold? (Tiffany D.)

At these prices, you didn’t need gold prices to climb to make money. All you would need is for the selling to stop. And then the natural demand from smart money investors, who sniff out these panic situations to make massive amounts of money fast, would drive prices up. That’s the scenario I laid out.

7 Economic And Monetary Charts That Make You Go Hmm (Taki T.)

The Financial Stress Index by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is an indicator of financial stability. The index is composed by credit indicators, forex and equity data, as well as interbanking spreads and rates. This indicator is in a strong uptrend, testing its 2011 highs, and moving towards 2008 crash levels. Note how this indicator peaked way before the stock market crash in 2008/9.

The Broad Market, Helicopters and Gold (Kevin J.)

Helicopter money is basically unlimited global liquidity intended to head off a liquidity crunch and keep the game going as long as possible—this is the next and ultimate stage in the fiat endgame. The starting point for this is Japan, but it will quickly become global, and legal constraints can simply be brushed aside—if laws prohibit it, they can be changed.

We have been caught flat footed by this rally, and the best course of action is thought to be to unload any broad market short positions.

The Glut Is Far From Over As Offshore Oil Storage Continues To Swell

In its latest report, the agency said global supplies of crude rose in June, by 600,000 barrels per day to 96 million bpd. Production, on the other hand, was 750,000 bpd lower than last June, with OPEC pumping more, but not enough to offset the decline in the U.S. The IEA also noted that there was healthy demand for crude in Europe and that this demand supported global growth of 1.4 million bpd, which should continue through the end of the year.

Climate change department closed by Theresa May in 'plain stupid' and 'deeply worrying' move (jdargis)

The news came after the appointment of Andrea Leadsom – who revealed her first question to officials when she became Energy Minister last year was “Is climate change real? – was appointed as the new Environment Secretary.

And, after former Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd announced in November that Britain was going to “close coal” by 2025, Ms Leadsom later asked the coal industry to help define what this actually meant.

The diversity of life across much of Earth has plunged below ‘safe’ levels (Adam)

“Exploitation of terrestrial systems has been vital for human development throughout history, but the cost to biosphere integrity has been high,” notes the study published Thursday in Science, which was led by Tim Newbold of the United Nations Environment Programme and University College London with a large group of colleagues representing several British, Australian, Danish and Swiss universities and institutions.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 7/14/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

9 Comments

Tall's picture
Tall
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‘Economics is for everyone’

From economist Ha-Joon Chang

Thanks to Ilargi Meijer for bringing this to my attention

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2016/07/debt-rattle-july-16-2016/

 

 

thc0655's picture
thc0655
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Are we wolves and rabbits heading into an economic collapse?

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/07/16/anonymous-conservative-blog/#more-126929

Here's an interesting perspective: 

r and K come from evolutionary ecology, where they describe two fundamental psychologies seen in nature, designed to adapt an organism to either a glut or a shortage.

Rabbits are r-strategists, designed to exploit free resources, like fields of grass. The five psychological traits inherent to the r-strategy are docility/conflict-avoidance, promiscuity/non-monogamy, single-mom’ing, early sexualization of young, and no loyalty to a competitive in-group. All help this glut-exploiting psychology to out-reproduce everyone else.

Wolves are K-strategists, designed for when resources are too limited for everyone to survive. The five traits of a K-strategist are competitiveness/ aggressiveness/protectiveness, competitive mate monopolization/ monogamy, high-investment two-parent rearing, only mating when mature, and high loyalty to one’s competitive in-group. All these traits either help you win, or produce fitter offspring, so they will win.

Our political battle is one between a glut-exploiting reproductive strategy of rabbits and a shortage-surviving reproductive strategy of wolves. The swings between conservatism and liberalism at the societal level are not the result of logical argument or reasoned debate. They are the result of psychological shifts produced by perceptions of K-stimuli in the environment such as conflict, danger, and shortage, or r-stimuli, such as safety, pleasure, and abundance. These perceptions trigger ancient mechanisms in the brain that adapt psychology to environment. All of politics and much of history are r vs K.

So is there a little bit of the wolf and the rabbit in each of us?  Or are some of us temperamentally wolves and others are temperamentally rabbits?  Does abundance, like we've seen in the West these last six decades, reward and reproduce more human rabbits and marginalize human wolves?  Could it be that much of what we attribute to lifestyle choices, political choices, religious beliefs, and moral choices come primarily from an environment that signals abundance or resource shortage?  Interesting concept.

The author applies that to France as the French try to form a cohesive response to terrorism and criminality at least partially motivated by Islam.  The r-majority (the French rabbits, if you will) have welcomed Muslim "refugees" by the hundreds of thousands, offering kindness, generosity and permissive freedom.  The French rabbits are clueless about how to act in the face of predators and rapidly declining resource availability.  He says K-minority French wolves are about to have their day as the rabbits become lunch for the predators (including those motivated by a drive toward Islamic world domination) and succumb to an environment where resources are getting deadly scarce.

The author quotes Patrick Calvar from BEFORE the attack in Nice, France.  Calvar is the chief of the Directorate General of Internal Security and prophetically sees the moment about to arrive when a "huge right wing backlash" against Muslim criminality explodes onto the scene in France.  Basically, the wolves are going to rise up and defend themselves from attacks despite the consternation and disapproval of the majority French rabbits.

In a shockingly non-politically-correct outburst, Patrick Calvar, chief of the Directorate General of Internal Security, told members of the French parliamentary commission that thanks to the increasing frequency of sexual assaults by islamic migrants, “Extremism is growing everywhere… We are on the brink of civil war.”

He said that the situation in France is on such a knife edge that it could just take one more major Islamist terror attack to lead to a huge right-wing backlash.

Speaking to the leading French newspaper, Le Figaro, Mr Calvar said: “This confrontation I think it will take place.

“Even another one or two attacks and it will happen. It therefore behooves us to anticipate and block all these groups.”

“There will be a confrontation between the far right and the Muslim world.”

At one point, Mr Calvar said: “Europe is in great danger, extremism is growing everywhere.”

From another article:

Growing tensions between the ‘extreme Right and the Muslim world’ have pushed France to the ‘verge of a civil war’, the country’s most senior security chief has warned.

Patrick Calvar, head of the General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI) – France’s equivalent of MI5 – made his claim in the wake of last year’s terrorist attacks on Paris…

But Mr Calvar, 60, warned there is evidence that radical Right-wing French groups have been massing arms in preparation for their own attacks on mosques and synagogues.

‘I think we will win against terrorism,’ Mr Calvar said, but predicted the ‘confrontation between the extreme Right and the Muslim world’, adding: ‘We’re on the verge of a civil war. I think this confrontation is going to happen. One or two more attacks and it will take place. It is up to us to anticipate and stop all those groups who would trigger clashes.’

The closed inquiry was held on May 24, but Mr Calvar’s dramatic comments were leaked to French media yesterday. He said: ‘Where is the spark going to come from that will light the powder, transforming France into an uncontrollable country where groups take up arms and hand out their own justice?”

I find it fascinating to consider these concepts in light of the 3 E's and what lies ahead for us in the very near future.

"Welcome to the Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor."

 

 

 

Time2help's picture
Time2help
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4 E's
thc0655 wrote:

I find it fascinating to consider these concepts in light of the 3 E's and what lies ahead for us in the very near future.

"Welcome to the Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor."

4 E's:

  • Energy
  • Environment
  • Economy
  • Empire
reflector's picture
reflector
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Posts: 279
turkey
it seems the turkey coup was a false-flag by erdogan, as an excuse to purge those who he considers not loyal to him, to consolidate his dictatorial grip.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/erdogans-counter-coup-begins-tu...
 
erdogan has a long history of having his intelligence service commit false-flag attacks like the bombings in ankara, which he blamed on the pkk (kurds) as an excuse to attack them.
 

there's some talk it was a us-backed coup because turkey has been shifting allegiance towards russia (renewed talk of a turkstream gas pipeline, etc). i doubt that it was usa behind the coup in this case, because the coup was a really lame attempt, i don't think it was serious at all, i think it was meant to fail.

however, erdogan does seem to be playing up the usa angle as an excuse to further distance himself from the usa and building a bridge to russia. he claims that some old turkish guy living in pennsylvania is the mastermind behind the coup:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/turkey-accuses-us-being-behind-...

meanwhile turkey halts all flights out of incirlik, which is usa's main base of operations against isis, and has 50 atom bombs there.
incirlik is also where the cia is importing all the heroin into the usa, coming from afghan poppy fields. he's going to piss off the cia real good on that one, cutting off their main black-budget income stream.

if he doesn't let usa resume flying soon, the usa really will stage a coup in turkey, but it will be successful. because, you know, democracy and stuff.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/turkey-suspends-all-us-operations-against-isis-incirlik-airbase-which-vaults-us-b61-
cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Posts: 5979
Turkey 'coup'
reflector wrote:
it seems the turkey coup was a false-flag by erdogan, as an excuse to purge those who he considers not loyal to him, to consolidate his dictatorial grip.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/erdogans-counter-coup-begins-tu...
 
erdogan has a long history of having his intelligence service commit false-flag attacks like the bombings in ankara, which he blamed on the pkk (kurds) as an excuse to attack them.
 
Yes, what an odd coup attempt.
 
A normal coup plotter might think it through and seek to immediately control the airport, the media and arrest the Prime Minister.
 
None of these were done.
 
At best, a half-baked, drunken mistake.  At worst it's not even remotely what it seems; that is, it was a false flag.
 
Whether it was or not, it serves Erdogan very, very well.  I shall not be traveling to Turkey any time soon...seems to be a place where many mysterious things occur, but none of the good type.
 
 
Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
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Posts: 3213
An Erdogan plot?

In my notetaking for the Steve Forbes Ron Arnott discussion last night, I had written down that Forbes said he suspected Erdogan was "in on the coup attempt". I deleted the note because I thought I must have misheard him.

But perhaps that is indeed what he said, and he was speaking of the kind of "false flag" maneuver that Chris questions above.

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
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ZH very skeptical about Erdogan's Coup

The Counter-Coup Begins:  Erdogan Purges 2,745 Judges, Prosecutors

A favorite line:

According to Hurriyet newspaper's online edition, some of the privates who were detained told interrogators they were not aware that they were part of a coup attempt. They had been told by commanders they were taking part in military maneuvers. Some said they understood that it was a coup attempt when they saw civilians climb on tanks.

---------------------

A couple of comments:

I am quite sure that Erdogan himself was behind the "coup".  He had a perfectly prepared speech at 3 in the morning, "fearlessly" coming right into Istanbul, and now with an excuse to remove anyone powerful in the military and scare dissidents of all iik.  The 3 friends I checked with in Ankara, Antalya and Marmaris all said it was bizarre, very little if anything happened near them, and it feels very contrived and false to each...

and

Erdogan orchestrates fake coup:

  • Is conveniently gone during it (at command center?)
  • Extraordinarily high police presence reported all day (police knew something was going to happen before it even happened)
  • Actual coup is lame-ducky, response is swift and effective
  • Sources of coup (USA, and various internal groups) is immediately announced, without need for an inquiry

and

much of the "military activity" was just jets and helicopters flying low over the city.

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
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I thought that David Stockman

I thought that David Stockman had a very interesting in-depth post summarizing the history of the Middle East fiasco.  Enjoy.

Contra Corner Digest - July 16, 2016
David Stockman's Contra Corner  
July 16, 2016  
UNSUBSCRIBE | WEBSITE  

No, Donald, It’s Not A ‘World War’

New York City, New York
July 16, 2016

David StockmanActually, the Nice horror was the demented suicide of a wretch who got fired and divorced, not a jihadi terrorist attack.

Beyond that, the real jihadi threat is rooted in blowback, but combatting it is a domestic police function. Enough militatistic bellicosity already!

The inconvenient truth is, Washington and its NATO vassals have brought bombs, drones, occupations and slaughter to towns and villages throughout the greater middle east for upwards of three decades. It is that senseless intervention and aggression that has fueled the rise of vengeful barbarians who operate under the ideological cover of a twisted Sunni Jihaddism.

In fact, it was the Bush/Clinton/Obama wars which gave rise first to al Qaeda and then to ISIS. In very substantial degree Washington trained them, armed them and then incited them to their anti-western rampages.

The Imperial City’s insidious doctrine of “regime change” also destroyed the states of Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan, thereby giving the jihadi vast outlaw territories from which to operate and to even establish a murderous medieval caliphate in the desert backwaters of western Iraq and northern Syria..

The frightful violence that has been episodically erupting in France owing to internal cadres and in the US owing to copycats does not originate in the religion of Islam. The latter confession is 1384 years old, but it was only 25 years ago that meaningful jihadi terrorism first impinged on the west.

Donald Trump and tens of millions of voters are naturally appalled and angered by what appears to be an escalating terrorist threat. But in light of the latest episode in France it would be well to consider exactly what happened in 1991, and how Washington and the west foolishly brought this plague upon the world.

In 1991 the earth moved. The cold war ended and the nuclear sword of Damocles was removed from its perch over mankind. The totalitarian menace of the Soviet Union disappeared and its vast military establishment was demobilized, abandoned and mainly sold for scrap… Read more »

 

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Posts: 5979
The Turkey coup

Well, I have to say, the immediate crack down, coupled to the rock-solid coup narrative in the WSJ, et al., seems just too tidy for my taste.

Who can make a list of 6,000 plotters in 48 hours?  

That's some mighty fine detective work there, Lou.  ;/

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