Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 6/30 - The Shadow Doctors, Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent?

Thursday, June 30, 2016, 9:32 AM

Economy

The Recent Rise in Delinquency Rates on Bank Loans Is Shocking (Is a New Banking Crisis Imminent?) (lambertad)

Credit growth was mostly driven by mortgage lending. Mortgages were generously provided by banks, but increasingly to subprime borrowers (subprime referring to their poor credit). Yet these subprime borrowers didn’t pay higher interest rates on their mortgages the moment Alan Greenspan began hiking rates. But as soon as their (promotional) teaser rates resetted, they started “feeling the Alan.” Delinquency rates went through the roof and the U.S. economy into recession.

Federal election 2016: ACT candidates shy about 'truth pledge'? (ezlxq1949)

"It may be they feel this is unnecessary or it may be they don't particularly want to commit themselves in writing to some of those high principles but I would say that's something we have every right to expect them to commit in writing.

"The reason we started this is the view that some politicians think they can get away with any lies they like."

Brexit: EU leaders say UK cannot have 'à la carte' single market (jdargis)

Although there is broad acceptance that Britain needs breathing space to appoint a new prime minister and establish what kind of future deal it hopes for, most members want Brexit under way quickly to contain the risk of Eurosceptic contagion, limit economic instability and allow the EU to move forward with new initiatives on security, growth and jobs.

The Shadow Doctors (jdargis)

In the past five years, the Syrian government has assassinated, bombed, and tortured to death almost seven hundred medical personnel, according to Physicians for Human Rights, an organization that documents attacks on medical care in war zones. (Non-state actors, including isis, have killed twenty-seven.) Recent headlines announced the death of the last pediatrician in Aleppo, the last cardiologist in Hama. A United Nations commission concluded that “government forces deliberately target medical personnel to gain military advantage,” denying treatment to wounded fighters and civilians “as a matter of policy.”

Sovereign Debt – What Could Go Wrong? (GE Christenson)

Given that our short-term markets are currently managed by central banks, High-Frequency-Traders, and governments, I understand that markets, technical analysis, and cycles are distorted and manipulated, but the T-Bond highs have been regular and long-term. A cyclic high in T-Bonds is due in a few months. We’ll see….

Big Oil Faces US$2 Trillion Cash Shortage – Deloitte (Josh O.)

The report was based on a survey of integrated public and listed national companies as well as independent E&Ps and warned that things are not looking particularly good. The rate of well depletion is 7-9 percent annually for both traditional and shale wells, and spending at many of the companies surveyed has been cut to below the necessary minimum that would ensure that this depletion is being offset, England noted.

North America’s Big Energy Goal Is a Cinch (jdargis)

Let’s start with Canada and the United States. Canada is a resources economy: It has vast reserves of stuff people like to use, but not that many people. Thanks to its network of lakes, rivers, streams, and waterfalls, Canada already gets 59 percent of its power from hydroelectric plants. And because Canada’s eastern provinces, where much of the hydro-capacity resides, border U.S. states with large populations, the country has long exported electricity south. In 2014, Canada exported about 10 percent of its electricity production—an amount equal to 1.6 percent of U.S. consumption—across the border. (In the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, the U.S. sends some power to population centers in British Columbia.)

Paris climate agreement plans don’t match Paris agreement goals (jdargis)

So here’s the damage in each scenario. In a pedal-to-the-metal no-policy world, we’re looking at more than 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100. Current policies (also extrapolated into the future) reduce that number to around 3.2 degrees Celsius. The Paris Agreement reduces it further to about 2.5-3.1 degrees Celsius. That’s certainly quite preferable to >4 degrees Celsius, but it’s also much higher than the 2 degrees Celsius limit that the Paris agreement was supposed to implement.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 6/29/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

20 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Column: The monetary bubble to end all bubbles is coming

House debt hits $1.5 trillion

The New Daily-6 hours ago
It seems like only yesterday that Australia's housing debt was a trifling $500 billion but it was actually 13 years ago. Since then, it's risen by another trillion, ...
 

Household debt growing at concerning rate, posing possible threats: BOK

Yonhap News - ‎13 hours ago‎
According to the BOK report, outstanding household loans extended by non-bank financial institutions that include savings banks and asset management firms came to 407.4 trillion won as of May 20, up 4 percent, or 15.9 trillion won, from the end of 2015.

Puerto Rico still faces debt default despite rescue law

Reuters-11 hours ago

NEW YORK Investors in Puerto Rico's debt-burdened economy still face risks of default on some of the island's $70 billion in debt even after the U.S. Congress

 

Column: The monetary bubble to end all bubbles is coming

PBS NewsHour-19 hours ago
The government can fund the $1 billion by taxing people. ... and outrage, or; Nudge the Bank of Japan to cover the deficit by cranking up the monetary presses?

ECB No Closer to Inflation Target After Series of Stimulus Measures

Wall Street Journal - ‎6 hours ago‎
Eurozone consumer prices were slightly higher on the year in June, but that left the European Central Bank no closer to meeting its inflation target than when it launched the first of a series of stimulus measures intended to achieve that goal two ...

Bank of England's Carney sees need for summer stimulus after Brexit shock

Reuters - ‎18 minutes ago‎
LONDON, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain's economy over the summer after the shock of last week's decision by voters to leave the European Union. "In my view, and I am ...
 
 

Taiwan Central Bank Cuts Key Rates

Wall Street Journal-6 hours ago
Taiwan's central bank cut interest rates for the fourth straight meeting Thursday, taking ... that has been battered by China's slowdown and feeble global demand.

Prices have increased by 14000%-19000% in four years in Venezuela

Q Costa Rica News-22 hours ago
TODAY VENEZUELA – The economic reality in Venezuela lacks food pricing controls since about three years ago, stated economic analyst Luis Enrique ...

Brazil unemployment stays at record 11.2%

Yahoo News-21 hours ago
The grim jobs outlook comes as Brazil struggles through its deepest recession in decades, with the economy expected to contract 3.8 percent this year, following ...

Corporate Bond Yields Hit Record Low in Europe After Brexit Vote

Bloomberg-16 hours ago

Borrowing costs have fallen since the European Central Bank pledged in March to buy ... Low yields are a headache for insurers and pension funds, who have

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Tone Deaf Central Bankers

Mark Carney is just the latest tone deaf plutocrat to dance across the stage instilling comfort in the monied class and pissing everyone else off.

The FTSE has already recovered all the Brexit losses but there's a helpful central banker ready to goose everything higher because, well, those two days of declines really upset his drinking buddies a lot.

These constant focused efforts to drive financial assets ever higher does nothing for the common person, nothing for Main Street, and everything for the speculator classes, who are now the highest paid people in all of human history, but a wide margin.  

Notice that when a pension goes bust the response from the central bankers is a deafening silence, there's nothing they feel they can or need to do.  But anything that puts a slight wobble in the precious stock market they pounce on instantly in both word and deed.

In short, they care about the financial elites and everyone else the really couldn't care less about.

So the anger in the populace, it grows.

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Silver Now UP $1 in 48 hours

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Naomi Wolf --Government Stages Events to Shape Public Thinking

Naomi Wolf answers audience questions about whether spy agencies stage events, create pictures and stories to shape public public thinking and policy.

Absolutely. That is what they do.

And, it is now *officially legal* for American intelligence agencies to propagandize the American public. So when an event happens it is not crazy to seek additional information and require multiple sources before being sure that it happened as stated. This is not "conspiracy theory." This is realistic living in an age were deception is sophisticated and widely used.

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Standard & Poor's cuts EU credit rating after British vote

Standard & Poor's cuts EU credit rating after British vote to leave

The Guardian - ‎1 hour ago‎
The European Union has suffered a downgrade of its long-term credit rating following the UK's Brexit vote last week. In a move that will increase the borrowing costs for the 28-member bloc, the credit ratings agency S&P said the EU should see its ...
 
 

European Union's Credit Rating Cut by S&P After Brexit Vote

Bloomberg - ‎7 minutes ago‎
The European Union had its debt downgraded by S&P Global Ratings as the aftershocks of the U.K. vote to abandon the 28-nation bloc reverberated across global markets. S&P lowered the rating to AA from AA+, citing fiscal concerns for the EU once it ...
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Turning the screws on the UK

I´d say the EU is opening its own negotiating position to punish the UK and try to intimidate it from going through with BREXIT...

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

EU Trade Commissioner: No trade talks until full Brexit

The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left.

"First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.

After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.

A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate.

The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect.

Ms Malmstrom, the EU Trade Commissioner, underlined that detailed talks to shape the UK's new trading relationship with the EU should not start until after the process of leaving politically, under an Article 50 process lasting up to two years.

"There are actually two negotiations. First you exit, and then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is," she said.

 

 

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Michael_Rudmin
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turning the tap on the UK

umm... if Europe doesn't want the 80 s. Scottish dark ales... Could they be perhaps exported to Virginia? I don't like beer, but only because Scottish dark ales aren't what is meant....

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Chris M. - They have meds for your condition

Hey Chris, did you just finish reading Dana Foroohar's book?  As for Mark Carney, another Canadian is sucked into the great black hole of vested interests.

Got rain today and the garden is looking good. Having a delicious salad as we speak. I recommend a bubbly for Canada Day and make it a relaxing 4 day weekend. Cheer up! It will get worse. Perhaps a Scottish dark ale, eh?

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China factory activity stalls in June, more stimulus expected

China factory activity stalls in June, more stimulus expected

The Straits Times-10 minutes ago
BEIJING (REUTERS) - Growth in China's manufacturing sector stalled in June, an official survey showed on Friday (July 1), adding to expectations that Beijing ...

China June factory activity shrinks more than expected to four-month low: Caixin PMI

Reuters - ‎24 minutes ago‎
The index has now been below the 50-point neutral level which separates expansion in activity from contraction for 16 straight months, indicating more policy support may be needed to avoid a steeper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

Japan's May consumer prices mark biggest slide in 3 years

Nikkei Asian Review-38 minutes ago

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's consumer prices fell 0.4 percent in May from a year ... Amid growing uncertainties over the Japanese economy, average monthly .

Japan's Prices Keep Falling in Challenge to Abe, Kuroda

Bloomberg-1 hour ago
With a little more than a week until Japan goes to the polls for an upper-house election, a batch of economic data released Friday underscores the challenge ...

UPDATE 1-Japan business mood stagnates on global uncertainties ...

Reuters-1 hour ago
TOKYO, July 1 Japanese manufacturers' confidence was unchanged in June from ... Japan's economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year in the first quarter ...

Japan factory output dives in knock to recovery

Daily Times-1 hour ago
Japan factory output dives in knock to recovery ... "The sharp fall in industrial production in May suggests that the economy slowed in the second quarter ...

Deflation is back in Japan, and it's only getting stronger

Business Insider Australia-2 hours ago
The weak price data will do little to dispel the view that the Bank of Japan will deliver additional monetary stimulus to the Japanese economy, perhaps as early ...

Bond Inflation Outlook at 17-Year Low Gives Fed Reason to Delay

Bloomberg-1 minute ago
The five-year, five-year break-even rate, an index used by the central bank help to guide policy, tumbled to 1.31 percent this week, the lowest level in central ...

BOK chief to hold special briefing on low inflation rise

Korea Times-52 minutes ago
The head of South Korea's central bank will hold a special press conference this month to explain the reasons for the low consumer price inflation that has ...

Puerto Rico set to register largest default to date

CNBC (subscription)-21 minutes ago
Puerto Rico is set to register its largest default to date on Friday as $2 billion in debt payments are due to the financially strapped island's creditors.

Obama quickly signs Puerto Rico rescue bill, says more work ahead

St. Augustine Record-18 minutes ago

This came as Puerto Rico's governor signed an executive order on Thursday to implement a debt moratorium on more than $1 billion worth of general obligatio

Venezuela food shortage ignites supermarket raids

Columbia Daily Herald - ‎21 hours ago‎
CARACAS, Venezuela — In the darkness the warehouse looks like any other, a metal-roofed hangar next to a clattering overpass, with homeless people sleeping nearby in the shadows. But inside, workers quietly unload black plastic crates filled with ...

Venezuelans storming supermarkets, attacking trucks as food supplies dwindle

Chicago Tribune - ‎Jun 28, 2016‎
Exhausted by government-imposed power blackouts, spiraling crime, endless food lines, shortages of medicine and waves of looting and protest, citizens are mobilizing against their leaders. In recent days, Venezuelans lined up to add their names to a ...

Rio gets a federal bailout 36 days before Olympics

WMUR Manchester - ‎4 hours ago‎
The president of Brazil's federal tourism agency, EMBRATUR, told CNN Thursday the city will have 85,000 police and military officers guarding the city for the games. Other officials say the metro line will be finished a few days before the Olympics begin.

Brazil Wind at Risk as Weak Economy Crimps Demand, GE Says

Bloomberg - ‎11 hours ago‎
The slowdown is the result of Brazil's economic downturn, according to Jerome Pecresse, chief executive officer at GE's renewable energy unit. Financing is drying up, customers aren't paying their bills and government energy auctions, usually the main ...

Italy rescues Veneto Banca after EU bailout plea fails

Financial Times-10 hours ago
An Italian bank bailout fund has taken control of a second lender after Germany rejected a plea for a more sweeping state-funded recapitalisation of the country's ...

Italy may have to recapitalize weak banks directly after stress tests ...

Reuters-16 hours ago
... of bank bailout funds Atlante, which was set up in April to help lenders raise cash and sell bad loans, by 3-5 billion euros ($3.34-5.57 billion) by the summer.

Italy's Longshot Bank-Bailout Bid Last Chance to Stop Crisis

Bloomberg - ‎16 hours ago‎
The two leaders are facing off after economic stagnation in Italy walloped banking profits and drove up bad loans. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said Tuesday that the EU would protect banking systems in Italy and elsewhere from the ...

Banks may need to write off 40-70% of bad loans in infrastructure ...

Hindu Business Line-8 hours ago

Banks may have to write-off 40-70 per cent of bad loan exposure in 240 companies in the steel, construction, power and textile sectors to bring their loan book to .

The next recession: It's out there somewhere, and we're not ready

Washington Post-16 hours ago
The theme is “recession preparedness,” as in: We are not at all well prepared for the next recession. Of course, that triggers the reasonable, albeit unanswerable ...

 

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Global Bond Market Surges Most Since 2008 as Growth Outlook Dims

ECB Said to Weigh Looser QE Rules as Brexit Cuts Asset Pool

Bloomberg-11 hours ago
... pushed down yields on some sovereign debt too far to meet current criteria, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential.

Global Bond Market Surges Most Since 2008 as Growth Outlook Dims

Bloomberg-12 hours ago
Even as yields approach all-time lows, Treasuries remain alluring to investors compared with sovereign debt in countries such as Japan and Switzerland that ...

S&P keeps AA+ rating, stable outlook on United States

Reuters - ‎7 hours ago‎
S&P's decision on the U.S. debt rating came the same day the agency downgraded its long-term rating on the European Union by a notch to AA from AA+ following Britain's vote last week to exit the economic bloc, which investors worry could hurt the ...
 

"It forecast long-term U.S. potential growth at 2 percent, which is below the 3.5 percent or so seen prior to the crisis.

"The pace of the U.S. rebound also compares favorably with that of other advanced economies. Indeed, following the UK's decision to leave the EU, this is even more likely to be the case," S&P said.

S&P stripped United States of its coveted AAA-rating in August 2011 due to its high level of debt and uncertainty about the federal government's ability to manage that debt load.

Federal debt burden as a share of the economy remained twice its 2007 level, it said on Thursday."

 

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Time2help
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Naomi Wolf

Green shifting to Yellow meme - if I interpreted that correctly sand_puppy?

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robie robinson
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Shady Rock Kelsey

Tired of waiting, parturition was finished @5am. Bluestem Farms welcomes a Suffolk Punch filly.

 

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Congratulations Robie!

Good news for good news Friday.   Will pictures follow?:)

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pinecarr
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Clinton-Lynch Airport Meeting

From Greg Hunter's USA WatchDog:

http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-7-1-16-greg-hunter/

Attorney General Loretta Lynch, along with the FBI, is investigating the biggest political scandal in American history with Presidential presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton. Allegations include:  a private server that jeopardized national security, charity fraud and bribes paid in donations for favors from Clinton while she was Secretary of State.  Against that backdrop, Lynch took a private meeting with Mrs. Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, on Lynch’s private jet in Phoenix.  We are supposed to believe this was a chance meeting, and we are also supposed to believe they talked about golf and grand babies.  That is preposterous, and I think somebody called a meeting.  It was so important that Lynch put her reputation and credibility on the line.  This was a powerful meeting, and it is impossible to believe that they talked about grand babies and golf when the most explosive political case in U.S. history hangs in the balance in an ongoing FBI criminal investigation. [bold mine]

And from ZH: "Judicial Watch Demands DOJ Inspector General Probe Into "Scandalous" Lynch-Clinton Meeting"

The political scandal of the day was the news that on Monday evening (coincidentally just before the Benghazi report was released), Bill Clinton and US Attorney General Loretta Lynch just happened to meet on the tarmac at a Phoenix airport - totally unplanned of course. Clinton saw the attorney general and wanted to say hello, so Clinton boarded Lynch's plane to talk for a bit. Sure, just a quick chat about the weather, his putting stroke, anything except oh, say, an update on what was about to be released on Benghazi, and especially not an update on the ongoing FBI investigation into Hillary.

"Our conversation was a great deal about his grandchildren. It was primarily social and about our travels. He mentioned the golf he played in Phoenix, and he mentioned travels he'd had in West Virginia. There was no discussion of any matter pending for the department or any matter pending for any other body. There was no discussion of Benghazi, no discussion of the State Department emails, by way of example" Lynch told reporters.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-30/judicial-watch-demands-doj-inspector-general-probe-scandalous-lynch-clinton-meeting

Wow.  Warm-fuzzy all the way around on the US judiciary system.

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Robie

Happy for you.

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robie robinson
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robie robinson's picture
robie robinson
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Settled mare has freshened

I do not know how to move posts. The fillies birth would be "good news".

Thank you folk for putting up with constant 19th century pastoral references.

 

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Time2help
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LTG on schedule

Limits to Growth is on schedule. Collapse likely around 2020. (Robin Westin/Seemorerocks)

Quote:

Climate scientists and others have in the past few years issued a steady stream of analyses showing that without immediate remedial actions, a disastrous future is headed our way. But is it a four-decade-old study that will prove prescient?

That study, issued in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth, forecast that industrial output would decline early in the 21st century, followed quickly by a rise in death rates due to reduced provision of services and food that would lead to a dramatic decline in world population. To be specific, per capita industrial output was forecast to decline “precipitously” starting in about 2015.

Well, here we are. Despite years of stagnation following the worst economic crash since the Great Depression, things have not gotten that bad. At least not yet. Although the original authors of The Limits to Growth, led by Donella Meadows, caution against tying their predictions too tightly to a specific year, the actual trends of the past four decades are not far off from the what was predicted by the study’s models. A recent paper examining the original 1972 study goes so far as to say that the study’s predictions are well on course to being borne out.....

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pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Can't access pictures...

Hey Robie-

   When I tried the link you provided to see your pictures, I got a message that they weren't available (or I didn't have access privileges).  I wonder if others were able to access them?

   Enjoy your young 'un!! :)

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