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Daily Digest 3/24 - The Time And Place For 'Helicopter Money', Global Water Crisis In Pictures

Thursday, March 24, 2016, 10:27 AM

Economy

The Time and Place for ‘Helicopter Money’ (Thomas C.)

The policy gets its name from an essay by Milton Friedman in 1969 that imagined newly printed money dropped from helicopters. While it evokes images of Weimar Germany and hyperinflation, it’s actually not that exotic or, for the U.S., unprecedented. It’s a logical option for any country struggling with deflation and slow growth, as Japan has and perhaps other countries some day may.

Islamist terror, security and the Hobbesian question of order (Afridev)

The progressive narrative in which freedom is advancing throughout the world has left liberal societies unaware of their fragility. Overthrowing despots in the name of freedom, we have ended up facing a situation in which our own freedom is at stake. According to the liberal catechism, freedom is a sacred value, indivisible and overriding, which cannot be compromised. Grandiose theories of human rights have asserted that stringent limitations on state power are a universal requirement of justice. That endemic anarchy can be a more intractable obstacle to civilised existence than many kinds of despotism has been disregarded and passed over as too disturbing to dwell on.

2016 Preview: Gold, Oil, Stocks, Debt Crisis | Jason Burack (pinecarr)

Currency and debt swaps, market interventions, global currency devaluation, and are windfall taxes coming on gold and silver? The rules are going to be changing! Burack lays out how you can educate yourself to rise above the herd and see the signs ahead of the coming critical events that you need to prepare for now. Get ready for an eye-opening and information-packed deposit of unconventional wisdom - don't miss it!

The New Migrants (jdargis)

Born to Kansas wheat farmers in 1955, the youngest of six children, Nick Smarsh was a natural with personal finance. His work ethic and money-saving impressed even his salty parents, who came of age during the Great Depression. Before he was old enough to drive, he owned more head of cattle than his dad did. By his early 20s, he’d already owned a foundation-building business. But it folded when the record-setting winter of 1978 left him without work for too long. You can’t pour concrete when the temperature is below freezing.

It's Official: Canadian Bank Depositors Are Now At Risk Of Bail-Ins (PBD)

Which is bad news not so much for the Canadian Dollar, which will certainly devalue in the coming months as the market prices in what a massive surge in deficit spending means although so will all other currencies as the global debasement race accelerates once more in a few short months, but for bank depositors, because deep inside the budget announcement, in the section discussing "tax fairness and a strong financial sector", we have official confirmation that Canada has just become the latest country to treat depositors as the bank creditors they are, and as such, they too will be impaired, or "bailed-in" the next time a Canadian bank needs to be rescued.

Oil Dividends Are On The Rocks. What Should Investors Do? (Josh O.)

According to Bloomberg, Kinder Morgan shareholders have lost $3.44 billion in dividends, followed by the second biggest losses among ConocoPhillips shareholders, at $2.42 billion. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. shareholders have lost $447 million, while Crescent Point shareholders have lost $318 million and Devon Energy shareholders have lost $276 million.

Adam Hochschild, A Corporation Goes to War (Chris M.)

In researching the book, Hochschild came across one of those crucial figures working in the shadows -- an unforgettable oilman with a Trumpian personality whose acts in support of Spanish general Francisco Franco and then Adolf Hitler helped ensure that fascism would come to power in Spain and, in the end, that the globe would be bathed in blood. Somehow, his role was missed by the hundreds of journalists covering the war. As you read this piece, ask yourself who and what is no one noticing at this very second as our world spins so madly on.

Why are people so incredibly gullible? (westcoastjan)

Why do so many false beliefs persist in the face of hard evidence? And why do attempts to deny them only add grist to the rumour mill? It's not a question of intelligence – even Nobel Prize winners have fallen for some bizarre and baseless theories. But a series of recent psychological advances may offer some answers, showing how easy it is to construct a rumour that bypasses the brain’s deception filters.

A Glimpse Of Things To Come: Canadian Oil Company Liquidates Hours After Bank Demands Repayment (PBD)

Until recently, the bulk of the attention on the insolvent North American oil and gas sector fell squarely on the US. That is starting to change for two reasons: first, Canada's regulator just ended the cute game (first profiled here) Canadian banks had been playing for years by reserving zero of their potential loan losses to the collapsing energy sector; second, slowly but surely Canadian oil and gas failures are starting to become a daily reality; failures such as that of Canadian junior oil and gas producer Terra Energy Corp which yesterday said it shut down production, ceased operations and announced the resignation of directors and officers on Monday, after its lender, Canadian Western Bank, demanded full repayment of its debt.

Don't Forget To Get Rich (Tiffany D.)

Keep in mind, the oil industry attracts plenty of swashbuckling bottom-calling behavior. Sometimes those calls work out (think billionaire T. Boone Pickens), and sometimes they don’t (think John Connally, the former Texas governor and Nixon-era Treasury secretary who bet everything on a 1980s rebound in oil prices and lost it all).

The global water crisis in pictures (westcoastjan)

Since 2011, American photographer Mustafah Abdulaziz has travelled to eight countries around the world highlighting the global water crisis in his documentary project, Water Stories.

Seventy large-scale photographs from the series are on display in London in his first UK solo exhibition.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 3/23/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

31 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Fearing crash, bond fund Pimco warns off 'helicopter money'

Negative Rates Make Corporate America's Bonds Only Game in Town

Bloomberg-7 hours ago
Japanese government bonds account for about 66 percent of the nearly $8 trillion of sovereign debt with negative yields. Europe first embraced negative rates in ...
 

Negative Yields Seep Into Shell, Siemens Debt on ECB Distortions

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
About 2 trillion euros of sovereign bonds yield less than zero, according to data ... In the covered-bond market, Berlin Hyp AG earlier this month sold debt with a ...

Japan's Negative-Yield Bonds Return More Than Double Treasuries

Bloomberg-11 hours ago
The nation's government debt has returned 5.8 percent in the past six months, the most of 26 sovereign debt markets tracked by Bloomberg. Treasuries gained ...

Japan lease company become first issuer of commercial paper with ...

Reuters-6 hours ago
... debt to corporate debt and stocks as part of its quantitative easing strategy. ... The BOJ has committed itself to holding 2.2 trillion yen of commercial paper ...
 

Bring on helicopter drops of money for Europe and Japan, says Capital Economics

Sydney Morning Herald - ‎10 hours ago‎
Helicopter money - also known as printing money - could be the next monetary tool that European and Japanese central banks turn to as the threat of deflation looms, according to a note from Capital Economics. "Although helicopter money is not yet high ...
 

Fearing crash, bond fund Pimco warns off 'helicopter money'

Reuters-10 minutes ago
Such schemes, in which central banks effectively finance government budgets, have been likened to helicopter drops of money. The idea has been around for a ...

 

Singapore Plans Expansionary Budget as Growth Pillars Falter

Bloomberg-3 hours ago
Singapore said it will adopt an expansionary fiscal budget to boost growth, reducing pressure on the central bank to provide more support for the economy ...

Taiwan''s Central Bank Cuts Rates Again

Nasdaq-5 hours ago

Taiwan's central bank lowered interest rates for the third time in six months Thursday, in its latest move to help prop up the stuttering economy and boost inflation ..

Negative rates earned Swiss central bank 1.2 bln Sfr in 2015

Reuters-2 hours ago
Since January 2015 the central bank has levied an interest rate of -0.75 percent on deposits above a certain limit, part of the SNB's efforts to discourage banks ...

Decade of Growth Poised to End for China Banks Stung by Bad Debt

Bloomberg-17 hours ago
... curb overcapacity in manufacturing, bad debt in China's banking industry jumped 51 percent last year to 1.27 trillion yuan, data from the bank regulator show.

ANZ warns of bigger credit hit from resources exposure

Reuters - ‎10 hours ago‎
SYDNEY, March 24 Australia and New Zealand Banking Group on Thursday said bad debt charges for the first half of 2016 could almost double due to a downturn in the resources sector, a problem analysts warn could snowball across the banking sector. A ...

Illinois Supreme Court strikes down Chicago pensions plan

The Elkhart Truth-41 minutes ago
The decision mimicked a ruling two months earlier by the state's Supreme Court on a separate pension bailout: the $111 billion deficit in state-employee ...

 

Doug's picture
Doug
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Thanks Jan

Yes, it is remarkable that otherwise intelligent people get taken in by transparent myths:

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160323-why-are-people-so-incredibly-gu...

Quote:

We may laugh at these far-fetched urban myths – as ridiculous as the ongoing theory that Paul McCartney, Miley Cyrus and Megan Fox have all been killed andreplaced with lookalikes. But the same cracks in our logic allow the propagation of far more dangerous ideas, such as the belief that HIV is harmless and vitamin supplements can cure AIDS, that 9/11 was an ‘inside job’ by the US government, or that a tinfoil hat will stop the FBI from reading your thoughts.

But, the article does offer some answers.

Quote:

Based on the research to date, Newman suggests our gut reactions swivel around just five simple questions:

  • Does a fact come from a credible source?
  • Do others believe it?
  • Is there plenty of evidence to support it?
  • Is it compatible with what I believe?
  • Does it tell a good story?

Crucially, our responses to each of these points can be swayed by frivolous, extraneous, details that have nothing to do with the truth.

(Credit: Getty Images)

It's true: we would rather hide our heads in the sand than listen to evidence questioning our beliefs, even if the facts are solid (Credit: Getty Images)

 

Quote:

A debunked myth may also leave an uncomfortable gap in the mind. Lewandowsky explains that our beliefs are embedded in our “mental models” of the way the world works; each idea is interlinked with our other views. It’s a little like a tightly bound book: once you tear out one page, the others may begin to fray as well. “You end up with a black hole in your mental representation, and people don’t like it.” To avoid that discomfort, we would often rather cling to the myth before our whole belief system starts unravelling.

Ah, that pesky world view.  We certainly don't want to challenge that. 

Quote:

It’s always worth asking whether you have thought carefully about the things you are reading and hearing. Or are you just being a cognitive miser, persuaded by biased feelings rather than facts? Some of your dearest opinions may have no more substance than the great banana hoax of the year 2000.

 

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phecksel
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I would suggest normalcy bias

I would suggest normalcy bias is the strongest emotion of all.

Take 911 for example.  How can we believe that this wasn't a terrorist attack, because the govt said it was a terrorist attack and the govt proved that even building 7 came down from the attack.

Normalcy bias suggests that our govt would never do something so egregious that would kill innocent lives.  So now what?  A core belief is suddenly violated?

Doug's picture
Doug
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I get what you're saying, I think
phecksel wrote:

I would suggest normalcy bias is the strongest emotion of all.

Take 911 for example.  How can we believe that this wasn't a terrorist attack, because the govt said it was a terrorist attack and the govt proved that even building 7 came down from the attack.

Normalcy bias suggests that our govt would never do something so egregious that would kill innocent lives.  So now what?  A core belief is suddenly violated?

In your example normalcy bias includes believing our gov't would never do something that takes innocent lives.  Anyone who considers that normal hasn't been paying attention.  The converse is amply demonstrated in the numerous wars of choice our gov't has instigated in far off lands over virtually my entire life (and I'm getting pretty old).  There is plenty of room for skepticism.

There is, however, another normalcy bias that seems to have taken root for many here at PP.  That is to assume that anything bad that happens is automatically evidence of an evil US gov't plot that involves variously the Israeli gov't, neocons, the "deep state" and any and all people and institutions who have anything to do with the unfortunate incident before or after the event.  It assumes that anybody with an intellectual, regulatory, investigative or scientific interest in the evil act are automatically liars and co-conspirators with the evil gov't.  Sometimes all of this is in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

It is usually wise to continually question your assumptions and be willing to accept that sometimes they are misguided.

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Doug wrote: There is,
Doug wrote:

 

There is, however, another normalcy bias that seems to have taken root for many here at PP.  That is to assume that anything bad that happens is automatically evidence of an evil US gov't plot that involves variously the Israeli gov't, neocons, the "deep state" and any and all people and institutions who have anything to do with the unfortunate incident before or after the event.  It assumes that anybody with an intellectual, regulatory, investigative or scientific interest in the evil act are automatically liars and co-conspirators with the evil gov't.  Sometimes all of this is in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

See, I don't think that's it at all. Your model is far too simplistic. Motivations vary from person to person. I don't think the majority have to be 'in' on 'the act'. Most just want their paychecks. Parents struggling with debt, newcomers struggling for recognition, soon-to-be-retirees just wanting their pension - why do you think that everyone has to be 'in' on a 'conspiracy'? I've never understood that. Most people don't want to rock the boat because they are on it - wages get them from shore to shore. Like the recent Grant Williams video about gold, 'nobody cares'.

My guess is that eventually they will wish that they did care. But by then the ship would have sailed.

Doug's picture
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wow
Luke Moffat wrote:
Doug wrote:

 

There is, however, another normalcy bias that seems to have taken root for many here at PP.  That is to assume that anything bad that happens is automatically evidence of an evil US gov't plot that involves variously the Israeli gov't, neocons, the "deep state" and any and all people and institutions who have anything to do with the unfortunate incident before or after the event.  It assumes that anybody with an intellectual, regulatory, investigative or scientific interest in the evil act are automatically liars and co-conspirators with the evil gov't.  Sometimes all of this is in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

See, I don't think that's it at all. Your model is far too simplistic. Motivations vary from person to person. I don't think the majority have to be 'in' on 'the act'. Most just want their paychecks. Parents struggling with debt, newcomers struggling for recognition, soon-to-be-retirees just wanting their pension - why do you think that everyone has to be 'in' on a 'conspiracy'? I've never understood that. Most people don't want to rock the boat because they are on it - wages get them from shore to shore. Like the recent Grant Williams video about gold, 'nobody cares'.

My guess is that eventually they will wish that they did care. But by then the ship would have sailed.

So, you accept the rest of my normalcy bias model.  That's quite an affirmation.  Thank you.

I agree when writ small that your thesis holds water.  But, given the subtext here, 9/11, we are talking about many thousands of people over the course of 15 1/2 years.  They didn't all have to be "in on the act', they just have to have some knowledge of it.  To assume that all of them would keep their mouths shut is just not realistic.  We're talking about the greatest crime of our time.  If there were a conspiracy there would have been many whistle blowers by now.  The motivation is strong.  Fame and fortune awaits anyone who could blow the top off such a conspiracy.  Plus you can't ignore the (I know, I'm horribly naive here) temptation to do the right thing because its the right thing to do.  With so many people involved in such a complex plot, there is just no way silence could be enforced by threats to paychecks or pensions.  There's way more at stake, especially if you are the first whistle blower at the trough.  There would be a stampede of people anxious to spill the beans.

 

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Same old, Same old
Doug wrote:

So, you accept the rest of my normalcy bias model.  That's quite an affirmation.  Thank you.

And we're back in Never Never Land again. I don't understand why you do that. Does it make you feel clever? You do realise that the majority of the audience here are critical thinkers? Slights of hand don't work.

To be honest, I find it rather tasteless that you ran with this excerpt;

Quote:

"We may laugh at these far-fetched urban myths – as ridiculous as the ongoing theory that Paul McCartney, Miley Cyrus and Megan Fox have all been killed andreplaced with lookalikes. But the same cracks in our logic allow the propagation of far more dangerous ideas, such as the belief that HIV is harmless and vitamin supplements can cure AIDS, that 9/11 was an ‘inside job’ by the US government, or that a tinfoil hat will stop the FBI from reading your thoughts."

9/11 was a world changing event. A war was fought on the back of it. Hundreds of thousands have been needlessly slaughtered in the name of it. People were tortured, children mutilated and incinerated. It, in absolutely no way, should be held in the same light with superstitions such as tinfoil hats blocking FBI signals and Miley Cyrus being replaced by a lookalike. That was blatant 'tarring everybody with the same brush'.

Is this how far our intellectual capability has deteriorated? Someone is scraping the bottom in desperation, and you bought it.

Anyway, moving on... hopefully

 

 

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The Congretional Budget Office:

Just announced that 98 cents of every tax dollar will go towards entitlements and interest payments by 2026.

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Charles' Article
Edwardelinski wrote:

Just announced that 98 cents of every tax dollar will go towards entitlements and interest payments by 2026.

Did you see the article that Charles posted on Of Two Minds? Entitlements + warfare = currency destruction. Well worth the read

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the point in the article I thought to be salient

was about how we can be "cognizant misers", which leads us to use intuition instead of analysis.

Let's not be cognizant misers and go down the 9/11 rabbit hole in yet another thread. Let us instead talk about what the article is exploring, and how we can (and perhaps should) look in the mirror with an eye to seeing if the ideas of how we process information fit the image we have of ourselves, our thinking and our way of being. It seems to me that some subject matter is going to produce more cognizant misers than others - certainly the 9/11 and Deep State discussions come to mind, as does the Climate Change thread.

I totally missed the part re Moses/Noah and Thatcher/President or Prime Minister in the article. How could I miss that?!?  So I guess I will go first: Hello, my name is Jan, and I am a Cognizant Miser...  cheeky

Seriously, it is just an article that tries to illustrate gullibility and how that ties in with a tendency to intuitiveness which I think is a fairly prevalent thing these days. It seems the majority are cognizant misers who have no need for tinfoil hats, with the minority being critical thinkers who, the way things are going, may indeed have a need for a rather thick tin foil hat. 

Jan

 

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Difficulties in Analysis
westcoastjan wrote:

Let's not be cognizant misers and go down the 9/11 rabbit hole in yet another thread. 

Yep, sorry Jan. I reckon in our highly complex society of specialised fields filtering through the amount of information we receive on a daily basis to determine its accuracy is an impossibility. I also think it depends upon people's circumstance; are they young parents? Are they worrying about debt? Fact checking takes time, and then someone presents another side of the argument which you have to check as well. I'm not really sure how you solve that. Plus if the easy answer is soothing then motivation to establish a 'reality' disappears. It's kind of why I come here :)

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Luke Moffat wrote: Doug
Luke Moffat wrote:
Doug wrote:

So, you accept the rest of my normalcy bias model.  That's quite an affirmation.  Thank you.

And we're back in Never Never Land again. I don't understand why you do that. Does it make you feel clever? You do realise that the majority of the audience here are critical thinkers? Slights of hand don't work.

Excuse me, I was trying for a bit of humor.  Tasteless perhaps.  But if you disagree with the rest of my model, say so and explain.  Don't just get snarky.

Quote:

To be honest, I find it rather tasteless that you ran with this excerpt;

Quote:

"We may laugh at these far-fetched urban myths – as ridiculous as the ongoing theory that Paul McCartney, Miley Cyrus and Megan Fox have all been killed andreplaced with lookalikes. But the same cracks in our logic allow the propagation of far more dangerous ideas, such as the belief that HIV is harmless and vitamin supplements can cure AIDS, that 9/11 was an ‘inside job’ by the US government, or that a tinfoil hat will stop the FBI from reading your thoughts."

I guess it matters how you measure catastrophes.  Nationwide over half a million Americans died of AIDS as of 2004.  

http://www.amfar.org/thirty-years-of-hiv/aids-snapshots-of-an-epidemic/

Worldwide:

http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/campaigns/globalreport2013/factsheet

Quote:

 

  • Since the start of the epidemic an estimated 36 million [30 million – 42 million] people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.

So I don't view all those myths as frivolous compared to 9/11.  Giving people who are facing death false hope is not funny.


Quote:

9/11 was a world changing event. A war was fought on the back of it. Hundreds of thousands have been needlessly slaughtered in the name of it. People were tortured, children mutilated and incinerated. It, in absolutely no way, should be held in the same light with superstitions such as tinfoil hats blocking FBI signals and Miley Cyrus being replaced by a lookalike. That was blatant 'tarring everybody with the same brush'.

Quote:

Is this how far our intellectual capability has deteriorated? Someone is scraping the bottom in desperation, and you bought it.

Anyway, moving on... hopefully

Did you even read the article?  Did you read the posts I put in the WTC7 thread yesterday?  How do you explain that the so-called "critical thinkers" on 9/11 on this site are completely contrary to the scientific findings?  Does that even matter to you?  What is your measure of truth?

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CBO: Cost of ObamaCare subsidies climbs by 25 percent

CBO: Cost of ObamaCare subsidies climbs by 25 percent

The Hill - ‎5 hours ago‎
ObamaCare subsidies are expected to cost the federal government about $660 billion in 2016, about 25 percent more than expected last year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Much of the $136 billion in extra spending stems from ...
 

CBO charts federal subsidies for US health insurance coverage

Reuters - ‎2 hours ago‎
CBO said the cost of healthcare subsidies is expected to grow an annual 5.4 percent on average over the next decade, reaching $1.1 trillion, or 4.1 percent of GDP, in 2026, CBO researchers said in a report. The report did not include the federal cost ...
 

Overnight Healthcare: CBO unveils new ObamaCare projections

The Hill - ‎2 hours ago‎
The Congressional Budget Office released its latest healthcare projections on Thursday and its results are mixed for ObamaCare. SPENDING UP: Federal health insurance subsidies are expected to cost about $660 billion in 2016, including an 11 percent ...
Luke Moffat's picture
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Quoting in Context

The tasteless jibe went with your reference to the BBC excerpt not the opening statement concerning the affirmation of models. The separation of paragraphs was clear. I also clearly referenced what I was referring to.

Can you point out where I mentioned "AIDS" in any of my posts on this thread? You brought that up to score points. Not sure it counts as a victory myself.

I had hoped that the WTC7 thread was done with considering the collapse didn't comply with Newton's third law of motion.

Just out of interest, do you not find the constant back and forth a little tedious? And a complete misallocation of energy?

Anyway, seedling trays and root veg to plant tomorrow. Spring be upon us!

 

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Thanx Luke

Just read the piece by Charles.Looks like we can expect are Federal taxes to double in the next few years.If they devalued the currency the likely outcome of that choice would be the inability of the government to service the national debt.In other words,out of options...

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No Worries Edwardelinski

Reading between the lines I think they hoped that their Keynesian playbook would get them out of trouble. And when that didn't work they tried it again, and again.

As Charles writes the next stage is probably increased taxation, which pretty much destroys what's left of the economy.

On the flip side I've been thinking that we're probably witnessing a transition, not just of wealth, but of the economy itself. If I'm reading Catherine Austin Fitts correctly she cites a transition between economy 2.0 to 3.0 - I've taken this to mean a march towards automation as our consumption based model is largely obsolete. People on low wages cannot afford the output of the economy so they must either take on more debt or face austerity. Gail Tverberg has been doing some awesome work on this as of late.

So what happens when our economic model of debt sponsored consumption fails? I think that's the really interesting question. If the economy no longer has use for an item it usually disappears... Does that mean if people don't qualify for credit then they don't qualify for participation in the economy? Judging by the increase in automation I think that is a possible scenario.

Cheers,

Luke

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Our government...

Doug said,

There is, however, another normalcy bias that seems to have taken root for many here at PP.  That is to assume that anything bad that happens is automatically evidence of an evil US gov't plot that involves variously the Israeli gov't, neocons, the "deep state" and any and all people and institutions who have anything to do with the unfortunate incident before or after the event.  It assumes that anybody with an intellectual, regulatory, investigative or scientific interest in the evil act are automatically liars and co-conspirators with the evil gov't.  Sometimes all of this is in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

The thing that has, "taken root" here at PP.com is unbiased critical thinking.  It's true that not everything is a conspiracy, and not every regulator is captured.  But we do have some really big problems in this country that are for the most part undiagnosed by the general public.  For instance, lawyer turned critical thinking activist John Titus has recently published a brilliant video piece outlining in excrutiating detail how our Dept. of Justice has become captured by the Wall Street Banks - which explains why no banker went to jail as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.  If you don't think the loss of equal justice in our country is really, really important to take note of.. then I just feel sad.  Here is the video for those who may have missed it;

 

I will also say that someday, those who work so hard to promote the gov't story of 9/11 are going to feel really, really bad about how they have been played.  There are a thousand bits and pieces of the official story that do not fit together.. that have no technical basis in reality.  Chris likes to focus on Building 7.. I understand why.  That it was a controlled demolition is incontrovertible - you can line up the video of the building collapsing beside known implosions and they fall in unison.... that's impossible for a building that would be collapsing due to some asymmetrical fires.  

But one can always just listen to Danny Jowenko, a building demolition expert who was shown building 7 without knowing anything about it.. and immediately identified it as ... well... controlled demolition.  He had no reason to lie;

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Danny

What would Danny say about the collapse of Hotel New World? He would say... "gosh that looks like a controlled demolition"

Hotel New World collapsed from the failure of 1 or 2 columns.

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entitlement benefits

If something is unpayable, it will be defaulted upon.  That's the theory I'm operating under.

From what I undertstand (not having done the math myself), social security is completely solvent if you don't give it to the rich (or relatively well off) people.  "means-tested", as it were.  Or if you cap it at a certain level.

The medical stuff - proposals I saw were:

* raise medicare availability age to 68, or 70

* cap medicare spending to GDP + 1% (presumaby capping what medicare will pay for - a default of sorts - huge savings)

These are both soft defaults, and almost certainly we'll do some if not all of them.

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(Un)lucky Dude

American teen injured in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings (Fox 28 News Columbus)

Fox28 News wrote:

One of the 9 Americans injured in Tuesday's Brussels airport attack is a young Mormon missionary who has now survived three terrorist attacks.

Mason Wells, 19, was reportedly in the Brussels airport with his two Missionary friends, Joe Empey and Richard Norby.

This was not the first time Wells was close to a terror attack. Mason was reportedly at the scene of the Paris attack last year and also a block away from the finish line, watching his mom run during the Boston Marathon bombing.

"I think the word is, you feel helpless, you feel scared because there's not a lot you can do," Chad Wells, Mason's dad, tells ABC News.

The blast of the Brussels bomb left Wells with burns and shrapnel injuries.

A U.S. Air Force officer and his five family members are also among the nine injured Americans.

Be fun to run a Monte Carlo sim on this one.

Edit: You know, back in the old days, when someone showed up at three different crime scenes in three different countries they used to be called a "suspect".

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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cognitive misers

Well first of all, you can't seriously expect the 9/11 guys here to let anything pass that suggests their love of their prize cow had moral equivalence to wearing a literal tinfoil hat (hey if I were getting signals beamed into my brain, I'd definitely give it a try), or the exact-duplicates-replacement of celebrities.  If it were my prize cow, I'd probably explode with a similar level of outrage.

A lot of us are marginalized in the outside world for believing in the stuff we believe in.  I get the sense that some are quite sensitive to having this happen at the site too.  For some, "my free speech" means automatically having the right to take any thread and convert it to another 9/11 discussion.

Or for me, markets.  Or for someone else - whatever their favorite hobby horse is.

One thing to consider.  If the 9/11 people want to convert people to believe their story more effectively, it may behoove them to use Jan's article as a guidebook in how to construct materials.

Lemons + a bit of sugar => lemonade.

Just a thought.  I could probably benefit from this too.  :-)

As for Doug's primary insight:

There is, however, another normalcy bias that seems to have taken root for many here at PP.  That is to assume that anything bad that happens is automatically evidence of an evil US gov't plot...

I've noticed this same thing.  Statistics alone suggests that not every act of evil is a government plot.  I get the sense that some thinkers here are just as knee-jerk dogmatic "cognitively miserly" about their belief systems as is any mainstream-Fox-News-watcher is about theirs.  Its not that the people here are more open minded - after one shining moment of open-mindedness when they changed their worldview, they have now become dogmatic about a new, non-mainstream set of belief systems.

I have to say, goldbugs are some of the most dogmatic people I have encountered.  "Wait, but I'm not mainstream (therefore I'm a card-carrying open-minded person by definition) and I also happen to be 100% right so I'm allowed to be relentlessly dogmatic..."

Is it possible that after doing all the work to abandon the old (incorrect, mainstream) philosophy, your new theory of the monetary world still isn't quite correct?  That still more cognitive work lies ahead of you to understand how the system really functions?  Possible?

No!  Sacrilege!  Gold will fix everything!  And I'm open-minded, dammit!

There.  Another ox gored.  :-)

Being open minded requires daily effort.  Just because you NOW think you know the truth -- well you thought that once before, didn't you?

Luke Moffat's picture
Luke Moffat
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Converting sounds a little 'Dark Age'
davefairtex wrote:

Well first of all, you can't seriously expect the 9/11 guys here to let anything pass that suggests their love of their prize cow had moral equivalence to wearing a literal tinfoil hat (hey if I were getting signals beamed into my brain, I'd definitely give it a try), or the exact-duplicates-replacement of celebrities.  If it were my prize cow, I'd probably explode with a similar level of outrage.

One thing to consider.  If the 9/11 people want to convert people to believe their story more effectively, it may behoove them to use Jan's article as a guidebook in how to construct materials.

I don't think that's it either. The idea of converting people to a belief sounds a bit 'Dark Age' to me. Say, for instance, 51% of the US population suddenly believe 9/11 was an inside job, what changes? I'd bet absolutely nothing. Who'd go to jail? Probably no one. Would American (and, by extension, NATO) foreign policy change? Highly unlikely. So it's not what I'm here to do. Nor do I have any idea of what I'd be converting them to - I simply don't have enough data, I just know that the official narrative doesn't conform with my understanding of Newtonian physics. That always really bothered me, and why it didn't bother anyone else.

What triggered my response is when people assert that remaining uncritical of the government narrative displays some kind of critical thinking badge of honour. To be honest, given the BBC's silence on key topics - banking fraud, wealth disparity caused by QE (i.e. asset inflation), foreign policy decisions, EU internal power structure - I just generally ignore anything that they publish and in hindsight I should have done the same here. I find mainstream media to be focused and reactive, not broad and proactive - BBC falls under the former, this site in the latter.

 

But going back to intellectual curiosity for a second. As an engineer, I can't go past the data and the laws of physics. Sorry, that's just how it is. Admittedly, I have dabbled in the odd speculation which was a little naughty of me.

PS: WT, that video appeared to obey Newton's 3rd law so I don't see the relevance - i.e. no free fall rate of acceleration as the building resists itself as it collapses. But it really needs to be time stamped along with dimensional data before you use it as evidence to the contrary. Just sayin'

Anyway, hoping to finish off my irrigation system this weekend, plus finish off my seedling trays

All the best,

Luke

Wildlife Tracker's picture
Wildlife Tracker
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predictive models

Well it's a CGI video, so I don't think time stamping it would be very productive.

From Danny's first reaction video...

Does the top go first? No the bottom. It starts from the bottom. They simply blew up columns and the rest caved in afterwards...

Hotel New World description of collapse

On 15 March 1986 at approximately 11.25 am, Lian Yak Building, located at the junction of Serangoon and Owen roads and which housed the Hotel New World, suddenly collapsed.[1] It was a total collapse: The entire building from ground level upwards gave way, falling to the ground and basement levels, with no wall or column left standing. The collapse was also swift, lasting  less than a minute.[2]

Quote from David Stewart, one the structural engineers reviewing Hotel New World.

I'd never seen anything like it before. It was like a demolition site really. Where you blow up a building. If it happened today, with all the terrorism around the world, we'd be imagining it was a terrorist attack. https://news.yahoo.com/video/hotel-world-men-risked-lives-222409453.html

Many of you pride yourselves on your intuition. Intuition is a predictive model trained on a mental database of past experiences so that you can make a probability estimate about a future decision.

When you train your model on demolition collapses and not "natural" collapses, the accuracy of your model when applied to natural collapses is going to probably be wrong.

That's the only point I wanted to make. Just food for thought.

 

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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WT...way off base
Wildlife Tracker wrote:

What would Danny say about the collapse of Hotel New World? He would say... "gosh that looks like a controlled demolition"

Hotel New World collapsed from the failure of 1 or 2 columns.

He'd probably say that it looked like a building failure.  You know, with the less-than-freefall speed, the asymmetry and such.

You know, things that *should* be completely obvious to you by now.

But belief systems are tricky in how they insist on mis-gathering and misinterpreting data to fit their preconceived views. 

You were way off base on this one.

 

 

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cmartenson
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Also consider the source....

..and, just for fun, here's the Twitter picture of the BBC expert on abnormal cognitive psychology.

Maybe he's an expert and all that, or perhaps he's a still green behind the ears journalist for a major disinformation source (which the BBC has quite sadly mainly become, especially on topics of government power and major financial crimes).

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Jim H
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Posts: 2387
Wildlife Tracker and the Singapore collapse.

WT.. I had never heard about that collapse before.. reviewing the news reports it was quite traumatic for little Singapore at the time, leading to 33 dead. 

As I researched this more, and I hope you guys.. WT, Doug, and others realize that I am in fact open minded and want to at least consider new information and new angles when presented to me.  So here's what I found;

1)  This collapse was thoroughly investigated as to root cause.  The cause was found to be a major design error whereby the dead load of the building (consideration of the weight of the building itself) was not factored in to the design.  Here is the report;

http://eijst.org.uk/images/frontImages/gallery/Vol._3_No._4/4.pdf

Why can't we simply have an objective review of the WTC building destruction similar to this investigation?  For those who think that the NIST report somehow represents objective science, I would simply ask why NIST would not release the actual model parameters?  

  “NIST claims their computer model can account for the observed phenomena, so let’s look at NIST’s model – except we can’t.  The software they used to do the modeling is available, but their model actually consists of all the numbers and measurements and assumptions together with any tweaks to the system they might have used to get it to come out the way they wanted.  If that information were released, their results could be checked by anyone with the appropriate skills and software tools.  But NIST has not released the numbers.  All we have been shown are some of the selected animated outputs they were able to get their model to produce… The very fact that NIST has not released their model strongly suggests they don’t want their results checked.  In other words, their results are intended to be taken strictly on faith.”

http://rememberbuilding7.org/nist-collapse-model/

2)  I cannot speak for Danny, and since he is dead, he cannot speak for himself either.. but to my eye it's obvious that this building is not collapsing at free fall velocity as controlled demolitions do - in other words, it is collapsing much more slowly as it works through the resistance provided by the crushing materials.  The fall looks like slow motion in comparison to Building 7.  This may sound like some kind of arm waving BS argument.. but it's not.. it's really, really important.  This is the critical element that folks need to wrap their brains around as it relates to Building 7 - it demonstrably falls down at the same speed as a dropped bowling ball would - NO resistance at all.  This is impossible, and the video provided by WT of a natural, non-free fall collapse, far from supporting his contention actually supports what Chris, myself, and others here are saying.

3)  From the report linked to above, "The building has 36 concrete columns that support 6 concrete floors with a total weight of 6000 tons."  When Richard Gage of AE911 truth says that no modern steel framed class A skyscraper has ever collapsed due to office fires... it should be noted that he is very specifically referring to, "steel framed" construction.  This building in Singapore was not steel framed.. it was cement and rebar.. The floors and the columns were cement and rebar.  There's nothing fundamentally wrong with this, as long as the design is correct, which it was not in this case.. but there is a BIG difference between all of the WTC buildings, including 7, and this building, which needs to be noted here.  While the word, "crumble" can apply to cement.. it does not apply to Iron beams.           

Wildlife Tracker's picture
Wildlife Tracker
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Chris

Nice Chris

Taking lessons from Donald Trump? He likes to post pictures of people's appearances to make an argument about their ability to be productive thinkers as well.

Regarding Hotel New World... they actually did look for explosives. Though primarily because eye-witnesses claimed they heard explosive sounds before the building collapsed on them (the few survivors)

Wildlife Tracker's picture
Wildlife Tracker
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Posts: 403
thanks JIm

I think they also used bad concrete (like the big dig in Boston). I'm happy you are open-minded Jim. I don't think anybody knows how fast the building collapsed as there is no actual video of the collapse (That's a modern luxury, and what you see are CGI models), but I think we all understand that it probably did not fall at free-fall.

It also did not have a structural design similar to WTC 7, so it's not really fair to make a side-by-side comparison.

I also want to note that when you folks post videos of implosions like this

NONE of these building have the same design as WTC 7. They also don't always fall in perfect symmetry like Chris argues.

As I said, it's probably better to train your intuitive predictive model on both sides of the coin.

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RiverWind
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Posts: 9
1986 and Hotel New World

If the Hotel New World collapsed spontaneously one morning secondary to two faulty columns, how was it filmed from beginning to end?  Were there surveillance cameras back then? There weren't iPhones. Did somebody just happen to be standing on a street corner to film it......to be explained later?  Did I miss a piece of this story? Thanks

 

 

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westcoastjan
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Posts: 573
Wow Chris...

Why does your post feel like a cheap shot? BBC is no worse or better than other MSM sites but they do offer up some great articles here and there. IMHO the whole point to any news article is to provoke thought and/or generate discussion & debate. Your post amounts to a personal attack of the author - something I think is well beneath you and not constructive to the discussion at hand. 

I posted this article because it made me think of the PP and all the comment threads. I wondered to myself how many of us respond on the basis of what we "think we read" as opposed to what was "really said" by the contributor. How many of us hit "reply" without having adequately filtered our intuition with a bit more analysis? How many threads get hijacked because of this?  This is similar to when we have in person conversations - how often are we thinking about what we are going to say next instead of actively listening to what the other person is saying to us?

This is something worth thinking about from the perspective that it might benefit this site - improved comment forums. If that is a possibility, then the article was worth reading and thinking about.

Food for thought.

Jan

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Luke Moffat
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Posts: 379
More questions than answers

Hi Jan,

I think most of us took those steps to get here. There was stuff happening in the world that mainstream media just wasn't getting to the heart of. My intuition (I call it curiousity) was telling me, 'OK, but why? Where's the rest of the story?' Intuiting that we aren't receiving a coherent narrative is essential to critical thinking. It's the thing that makes you go, 'hang on, that explanation doesn't solve all the riddles, what aren't you telling me?'

I can't remember when exactly I stopped listening to MSM to gauge world affairs, I think it was around 2005. Rather remarkably it was hip-hop music that shook me out of my trance (I'm a young pup comparatively speaking :) ) but I was learning more about foreign policy through artists like Immortal Technique than I was through institutions such as the BBC. So instead of relying on the BBC to answer my questions I turned to literature. One of the stand out books for me was Robert Fisk's 'The Great War for Civilisation - The Conquest of the Middle East'. After reading it I got so angry, not only about what we did to countries like Iraq and Iran, but also that the institutions I relied upon for information never addressed these issues.

In order to maintain a state of freedom it is the media's duty to shine a light on the abuses of power. I can't remember the last time MSM did that? Robert Fisk bemoaned the scale of embedded reporters within the military for overseas engagements.

Another point whilst we are on the BBC, I have their breakfast news program on in the morning whilst getting ready for work and they have a business slot of about 1 - 2 minutes in length each morning. In it they send Steph McGovern (a presenter/reporter) throughout the country in search of growth - I'm not making this up. She gets to go to places like Stoke and Chichester to meet local business people. They tell her how good the pottery industry is at the minute or how much chocolate they are selling and everything is all rosy. Growth is here to stay, apparently. Talk about setting people up for a fall... I smile wryly throughout the whole affair.

Here, have another one on me

So you'll have to forgive my snobbery of the BBC I'm afraid :)

All the best,

Luke

 

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