Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 3/12 - Oil Prices Heading For A Fall, The Fed's Got A Problem

Saturday, March 12, 2016, 11:01 AM

Economy

The Fed's Got A Problem (Mark C.)

If the employment gains were indeed as strong as the Fed, and the BLS, currently suggest; the labor force participation rate should be rising strongly. This has been the case during every other period in history where employment growth increased. Since the financial crisis, despite employment gains, the labor force participation rate has continued to fall.

This suggests that at some point in the future, we will likely see negative revisions to the employment data showing weaker growth than currently thought.

India's big move into solar is already paying off (lambertad)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made access to electricity a top priority, and has set the goal of making 24-hour power available to all 1.3 billion Indians. Currently, even India's biggest cities suffer from frequent power outages.

A Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short: Here's Why (Kevin J.)

What remains most remarkable about Horseman Capital is that even as it modestly boosted its gross exposure to 59%, as of February the fund's net short exposure has risen from what was a previous record of 76%, to a whopping -88%, an unprecedented record even for one of the world's most bearish hedge funds!

The Geography Of Trumpism (jdargis)

“It’s a nonurban, blue-collar and now apparently quite angry population,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. “They’re not people who have moved around a lot, and things have been changing away from them, but they live in areas that feel stagnant in a lot of ways.”

Three laws could cut US gun deaths by 90%, study says (jdargis)

In a commentary published alongside the study in The Lancet, the Harvard School of Public Health's David Hemenway echoed the concern, noting the impressive claim of a 90 percent reduction with just three laws. “That result is too large—if only firearm suicide and firearm homicide could be reduced so easily,” he wrote.

Still, the authors defend their analysis and emphasize that the study highlights the need to focus on gun control measures that definitively work at reducing gun-related deaths. Currently in the US, guns kill about 90 people every day.

Oil Prices Heading For A Fall, Possibly Hard (Aaron M.)

Instead, Russia and Saudi Arabia have apparently agreed to a production freeze. This is meaningless theater but it helped lift oil prices 37% from just more than $26 in mid-February to almost $36 per barrel last week. That is a lot of added revenue for Saudi Arabia and Russia but it will do nothing to balance the over-supplied world oil market.

Turkish Energy Security Under Threat (Josh O.)

Turkish President Erdogan, while starting a war against the PKK in South-Eastern Turkey, maintains a good relationship with KRG leader Barzani who is also seen as a leader by Kurds living in Turkey. As a result of the bilateral relations between Erdogan and Barzani, the KRG was able to build an additional pipeline to sell Kurdish oil via Turkish territory. Though for a long time Kurdish oil was sold from Turkey’s Ceyhan port unlawfully, Kurdish oil has now begun to sell labelled as Iraqi oil through Turkey thanks to an agreement between the Iraqi government and the KRG’s Erbil government at the end of 2014. Due to low oil prices and a federal budget conflict with Bagdad, Erbil slogs away to pay salaries of Peshmerga-Kurdish security forces who are fighting against ISIS.

Florida’s problem with sea level rise catches up with Rubio at debate (jdargis)

The first part of the answer is a standard talking point—if the climate has changed in the past without human influence, why should we think that humans are changing it now? It's the equivalent of asking why, if forest fires occurred before humans were around, we should think any forest fires are caused by humans. The most disappointing thing about this non-answer, however, may have been that Rubio was interrupted by applause when he gave it.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 3/11/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

3 Comments

robie robinson's picture
robie robinson
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Nate's picture
Nate
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Thunder Road

Really enjoyed this.

https://vimeo.com/156947207

thc0655's picture
thc0655
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 27 2010
Posts: 1514
Flawed study disowned by other gun control advocates

https://www.nraila.org/articles/20160311/flawed-study-from-the-prestigious-lancet-exposes-broader-problems-in-anti-gun-research

The anti-gun press couldn’t contain their excitement. A new study published in the UK’s prestigious The Lancet medical journal purported to show that certain gun control measures could lead to incredible reductions in the firearm mortality rate. CNN blared, “Study: 3 federal laws could reduce gun deaths by more than 90%,” the L.A. Times touted, “Aiming to drive down gun deaths? Put these three laws on the books, researchers say,” and the Christian Science Monitor proclaimed, “Federal gun control laws could reduce deaths up to 90 percent, study says.” What these outlets weren’t anticipating is that the study has proven so flawed that the most influential members of the anti-gun research community have been forced to denounce it; lest the public realize the larger problems attendant to the entire field of study...

Unsurprisingly, most media outlets have given less attention to the research team’s findings pertaining to a host of other gun controls. The team found many gun control measures have little, no, or even a detrimental effect on firearm mortality rates...

Daniel Webster, director of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Gun Policy and Research, told the Washington Post, “Briefly, this is not a credible study and no cause and effect inferences should be made from it.” Webster is later quoted, stating, “What I find both puzzling and troubling is this very flawed piece of research is published in one of the most prestigious scientific journals around… Something went awry here, and it harms public trust.”

David Hemenway, director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, said of the findings, “That’s too big -- I don’t believe that.” Pouring cold water on the schemes of politicians peddling gun controls as societal cure-alls, Hemenway went on to tell the Post, “These laws are not that strong. I would just be flabbergasted; I’d bet the house if you did [implement] these laws, if you had these three laws and enforced them really well and reduced gun deaths by 10 percent, you'd be ecstatic.” Offering a glimpse into the broader deficiencies of the field, Hemenway told U.S. News & World Report, “I could find serious problems with virtually any U.S. study about gun laws.”

This bout of public infighting and candid admissions as to the credibility of the entire field of gun violence research should give the public and policymakers pause when presented with studies supporting further gun restrictions. As Webster so eloquently alluded to, the peer-review process and stature of a journal offer little indication of the veracity of its contents when it comes to the politically-charged topic of gun control. Further, this episode provides important evidence as to why NRA works with federal lawmakers to ensure that this type of shoddy and politically motivated research is not federally funded through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It is bad enough that such defective anti-gun research finds its way into distinguished publications, without forcing the taxpayer to foot the bill.

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