Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 3/10 - Chinese Exports Plunge 25%, Needless Wars over Oil

Thursday, March 10, 2016, 11:58 AM

Economy

Are You Kidding Me? Chinese Exports Plunge 25.4 Percent Compared To Last Year (Aaron M.)

I don’t know how anyone can possibly dismiss the importance of these numbers. As you can see, this is not just a one month aberration. Chinese trade numbers have been declining for months, and that decline appears to be accelerating.

Another very interesting piece of news that has come out in recent days regards the massive layoffs that are coming at state industries in China. According to Reuters, five to six million Chinese workers are going to be losing their jobs during this transition…

Jim Rogers: What to buy, watch and avoid (Herman J.)

Jim Rogers is long on China and short US dollar. He says the dollar is not safe and gold will turn into a bubble. Investment opportunities are in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Iran.

ECB pulls out all stops with rate cuts, stimulus boost (PBD)

"Rates will stay low, very low, for a long period of time and well past the horizon of our purchases," ECB President Mario Draghi, judged to have disappointed markets in December with measures below expectations, told a news conference. Purchases are due to end in March next year.

He added, "From today's perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don't anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further,"

Gold’s Next Move And Price Target (Taki T.)

What does all this mean to investors? If you are not already long gold, this is the time to be patiently looking for an entry point. It is not recommend to jump in already now, as gold can typically drop fast and sharp with the aim to shake out weak hands.

Volatility is coming, and, as always, that comes with opportunities for patient investors and traders. Rob Tovell will issue a Trade Alert when an ideal entry point is presenting itself with a signal to go long.

Is it time for DUST off, Lieutenant? Where is that bird? (DG)

Will it take as much guts as it took to fly an unarmed bird, into the vortex of hell, to get DUST? If you got in early, your no doubt feeling "DUSTED" or "BUSTED". So far this Gold Rally has been a DUST Buster.

Forget fracking. Choking and lifting are latest efforts to stem U.S. shale bust (Capt DC)

With oilfield activity suddenly contracting, production from a dwindling number of freshly fracked wells would be unable to compensate for the rapid depletion of older wells. Yet that long-anticipated turning point has only just begun to emerge - partly because producers had a couple more tricks in store.

Some drillers are spending a little bit more on measures that are subtly flattening the so-called "production curve" of shale wells, either by limiting the initial surge in output or by squeezing a few additional barrels out of older wells, according to industry executives and analysts.

The $9.2 Billion Bet Against OPEC Dominance (Josh O.)

A lot of investors did end up catching a falling knife as oil careened downward from about $60 a barrel last summer to Friday's close of about $36. Investors this year may still find that the knife is falling, though it admittedly doesn't have as far to fall this time around. Still, it seems they misunderstand OPEC's strategy or believe that that strategy will fail.

Needless Wars over Oil (Ian H.)

The NASA and Max Planck findings vindicate the much-maligned findings of an elite group of Russian scientists which more than six decades ago realized that the Western oil-as-fossil-fuel theory was buncombe. In the early 1950’s an elite team of Russian and Ukrainian geophysicists, geochemists, geologists were mandated, on a high-priority classified (as everything during the Cold War in the USSR) mission from Stalin, to make the Soviet Union oil independent from reliance on the Western oil companies. As they proceeded to examine all scientific literature from the West on oil’s fossil origins they were astonished to discover that there was not one single solid scientific experiment proving oil’s biological origins.

FPL nuclear plant canals leaking into Biscayne Bay, study confirms (Michael W.)

According to a study released Monday by Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, water sampling in December and January found tritium levels up to 215 times higher than normal in ocean water. The report doesn’t address risks to the public or marine life but tritium is typically monitored as a “tracer” of nuclear power plant leaks or spills.

The study comes two weeks after a Tallahassee judge ordered the utility and the state to clean up the nuclear plant’s cooling canals after concluding that they had caused a massive underground saltwater plume to migrate west, threatening a wellfield that supplies drinking water to the Florida Keys. The judge also found the state failed to address the pollution by crafting a faulty management plan.

FPL nuclear plant canals likely violating water quality laws (Michael W.)

Following the release of a report that found a radioactive “tracer” at levels up to 215 times more than normal in Biscayne Bay, Miami-Dade County commissioners called for quicker action and closer scrutiny of the nuclear power plant’s canals. The county’s chief environmental regulator said he planned to issue another violation — the county cited the utility in October for polluting groundwater — to force FPL to take more steps to fix the chronic problems.

Critics, including state Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez, D-Miami, environmentalists and neighboring rock miners, also demanded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency intervene.

Dangerous bacteria: Vibro Vulnificus in Florida ocean hospitalizes 13, kills 3 (Michael W.)

The Florida Department of Health reports 13 people have contracted the bacteria and 3 have died from the strain. Last year, 41 people were infected and 11 died. Florida isn't the only state to report Vibrio vulnificus infections. Alabama, Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi have also recorded cases.

"It's quite discouraging because the beach is one of the more popular hobbies in Florida," said Tracy Brown of West Palm Beach.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 3/9/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

21 Comments

Wendal's picture
Wendal
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RE: Needless Wars over Oil article

In my opinion, posting an article that supports the abiotic origins of oil damages the credibility of PP.

 

Kim L. Law's picture
Kim L. Law
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I agree, however, I have also

I agree, however, I have also noticed that the daily digest sometimes include articles that demonstrate how clueless the external media is.

Additionally if oil was produced by an abiotic process, its regeneration will be SLOWER not FASTER than a biotic process. I doubt there's an abiotic process that sequesters carbon faster than organisms do. Methane lakes are not hydrocarbon chains. Without life it will sit as methane gas for a long time before it gets assembled into longer hydrocarbon chains.

Tall's picture
Tall
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Private wells not exempt from lead contamination

Well water quality is not routinely tested and verified by governments - it is up to private landowners to test their own water for contamination

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-water-lead/

 

Tall's picture
Tall
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Posts: 564
Another follow up report on health after Fukushima contamination

From Physicians for Social Responsibility

The report notes that 116 children in the Fukushima prefecture have already developed thyroid cancer, and many are waiting to receive major surgery to remove the affected organs. Previous studies have similarly found thyroid cancer diagnosis rates dozens of times higher than the average rate among Fukushima children.

http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/fukushima-report.pdf

 

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
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Posts: 1926
Potatoes planted

Just a reminder for any fellow city-slickers-turned-suburban-gardeners:  Now is the time to plant potatoes.

I got mine in.  The soil looks wonderful with rich color and lots of earthworms.

http://www.almanac.com/plant/potatoes

rjs's picture
rjs
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Posts: 445
potatoes

when to plant depends on where you live; as a frost will kill potato vines, and in some parts of the country we can still see a frost in early June....tubers underground will resprout, but the yield will be reduced if you've already had sizable top growth...best to go with a month before your last frost date, and up until 110 days before your expected fall frost date for winter stores...

that said, there are a lot of cool season crops you can start outside now; spinach, radish, onions, the whole cabbage family, & lettuce, & even peas and carrots... i've had lettuce germinate under a snow cover and survive a 17F freeze at night...

LesPhelps's picture
LesPhelps
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Wendal wrote: In my opinion,
Wendal wrote:

In my opinion, posting an article that supports the abiotic origins of oil damages the credibility of PP.

I disagree.  

Further, the origin question not withstanding, the issue still remains how much are the reserves and what is the extraction price going forward.

The article posted is old news.  I ran across it decades ago.  The arguments are not illogical.

zoedog's picture
zoedog
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Needless Wars Over Oil

Not only is oil abiotic, but diamonds are hydrocarbons, and global warming is no problem.  Whew!  

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Posts: 5752
Not necessarily
Wendal wrote:

In my opinion, posting an article that supports the abiotic origins of oil damages the credibility of PP.

Posting something here does not necessarily constitute endorsement. 

I am vigorously on the side that oil as we know it is nearly 100% derived from prior biological activity.  The science is just too compelling and complete.

The abiotic oil idea is a very bad case of cherry picking.  In fact, it's one of the reasons I tend to discount many other things that Mr. Engdahl writes about.  If he gets something this easily investigated wrong, then what else is he cherry picking to make his geopolitical cases?

So in this sense, it does some good to post such things here, even if he purpose is to raise them and shine a light on them.

What are your reasons for thinking that oil is *not* abiotic?

(For the record, I said "nearly 100%" above very carefully because the presence of methane on many other planets and in space tells me that there's a darned good chance the earth formed with some too).

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Posts: 4167
Next Stop on ECB QE Adventure: $980 Billion Corporate Debt

Next Stop on ECB QE Adventure: $980 Billion Corporate Debt

Bloomberg-12 hours ago
The next target for the European Central Bank's expanding asset-purchase program: the region's 900 billion-euro ($980 billion) corporate-bond market.
 

US Treasury to Sell $78 Billion in Debt

Wall Street Journal-4 hours ago
The Treasury Department will auction $78 billion in securities next week, all in previously auctioned debt. Details (all with minimum denominations of $100):.

China to ease commercial banks' bad debt burden via equity swaps

Yahoo7 News - ‎18 hours ago‎
UK-CHINA-BANKS-NPLS-EXCLUSIVE:Exclusive: China to allow commercial A Chinese national flag flies at the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, in Beijing, China, January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon.

S&P says may cut Detroit school bond ratings due to cash crunch

Reuters - ‎7 hours ago‎
The school system, which has 97 schools and about 47,000 students, is drowning under $3.5 billion of debt, including $1.7 billion of bonds, and suffering from declining enrollment. Despite being under state oversight since 2009, the school district has ...

Fitch expects $70 billion of defaults by energy and materials ...

MarketWatch-5 hours ago
... its 2016 forecast for U.S. high-yield bond defaults to 6% from 4.5%, and said it expects energy and materials issuers to default on $70 billion of debt this year.

China steel cut plans not enough to solve sector woes: exec

Reuters-19 hours ago

China has made 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) available to handle layoffs in the steel ... According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the debt ratio of major .

 

robie robinson's picture
robie robinson
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Posts: 1191
Sandpuppy, you just

go right ahead St. Paddys is our day, yours-n-mine. I've planted early snap beans on St. Patricks as well and done fine. 

zone 7a

ezlxq1949's picture
ezlxq1949
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
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Posts: 225
Abiotic oil

I don't object to the topic being raised as it caused me to think and do some research. I found this, for instance, which sounds authoritative:

https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/41684/abiotic-oil-vs-the-tra...

The Dr Jon Clarke quotation is sourced to the

ARGA logo

(Australian Regolith Geoscientists Association) so I guess he knows a thing or two. On the basis of this alone, I lean maybe prematurely to the biotic origins of oil. (Has Dr Clarke been co-opted by the likes of Halliburton?)

Kim L. Law's picture
Kim L. Law
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Posts: 19
Potatoes

Our potatoes were in about a month ago. They are now about 3 inches tall! smiley

robie robinson's picture
robie robinson
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Eannao's picture
Eannao
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Posts: 147
Jim Rogers is NOT 'short US dollar'

The synopsis above is incorrect: "Jim Rogers is long on China and short US dollar",

If you listen to the video, Jim is bullish on the dollar during the turmoil which he predicts over the coming year or two.

blackeagle's picture
blackeagle
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Posts: 225
planting potatoes and other crops...

Hardiness zone 4. Today March 11th 2016. Beds are still under 2 feet of snow. Bees not yet out. We won't plant anything outside before June.

Lucky those who can start their outside garden now.

This year planning:

- Finish building my small backhoe (half the cost of what readily available on the market). The fun to do something during winter, being able to fix, maintain and improve a homemade tool and learning new skills (metalworking).

- Clear cut about 2 acres of land (This week-end job... I will sleep like a baby this Sunday night)

- Build a year-round greenhouse (insulated north wall, climate battery, double or triple-glaze, etc...) (Well, I should say "start" because all the little details won't be done until may be next year or 2018)

- Dig a pond

That's it. Already a well packed agenda... wink

robie robinson's picture
robie robinson
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Posts: 1191
pond?

permit?

blackeagle's picture
blackeagle
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 16 2013
Posts: 225
Pond? Permit?

Yes! Always permit required... Although easy to get as it is small and is not located in a wet area. It will collect rain water and snow melt. Will see if it stays full all year long.

Once build, it will be protected as any other body of water.

 

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 13 2011
Posts: 1926
Green House Envy

Blackeagle's snow covered yard reminded me again how awesome a green house would be.  Robshepler at Potter's Ranch in New Mexico has posted on his tunnel green houses before.  I'll put a couple of his pictures and a link to the instruction manual from Johnny's Selected Seeds on how to build one.

They sell a tool for bending metal bars into the correct curved shape for a high tunnel hoop greenhouse.  That is why they call this manual the "Quick Hoops High Tunnel Bender."  It is a beautifully layed out manual.

 

 

Wendal's picture
Wendal
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Posts: 6
RE: Not Necessarily

I do tend to think that for the most part, no theory or idea - no matter how outrageous or seemingly un-scientific - should be totally dismissed out of hand – at least initially.

The history of science seems replete with examples of the scientific orthodoxy of the day being “full of it” in their disdain for such theories as “rocks falling from the sky” (meteorites), continental drift, or the “catastrophist” theory of dinosaur extinction. I can remember following the travails of Luis and Walter Alvarez being ridiculed for promoting the theory that a comet or asteroid collision was responsible for their demise – only to be vindicated later by the incorporation of that theory into the current scientific orthodoxy. ( http://www.history.com/topics/why-did-the-dinosaurs-die-out)

However, in the case of abiotic oil - at least in regards to its large scale relevance to the issues of the day – I would defer to the consensus of the oil industry itself. As stated much better by Ugo Bardi  -  “Petroleum geologists have learned the hard way where to drill (and where not to drill); in the process they have developed a theoretical model that WORKS. It is somewhat difficult to believe that generations of smart petroleum geologists missed huge amounts of oil.” (http://www.rense.com/general58/abioticoilscience.htm).

But in view of my assertion above, perhaps I overstated my original criticism.  Perhaps what I should really have said is that it would seem desirable to at least somehow indicate that a given story posting deals with a theory or subject matter that is considered controversial, and that it’s posting does not necessarily constitute an endorsement of those views by PP.

But, then again, maybe that just goes without saying anyway, so all this is really just “much ado about nothing”.

blackeagle's picture
blackeagle
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 16 2013
Posts: 225
Backhoe

One PP member asked if I could post where I got the plans for the backhoe. Here is the answer for the benefit of everyone.

I bought the plans from http://www.ubuilditplans.com/ last November (Ground Hawg Towable Backhoe)

Unfortunately, the web site is down since January. No idea why. I like their plans, their price and the service they provide.

The machine will cost me a bit less than 6000$CAD (including larger engine, larger cylinders, additional oil cooler, larger oil reservoir, lights, fenders, etc...). On the side, I spent about 3000$ for tools and consumables (This is the first time I do metalworking - all my workshop was for woodworking). Here is the list of the main tools I purchased:
- Stick welder
- Plasma cutter
- Metal bandsaw
- Annular cutters + press drill adapter
- Silver drill bits kit
- Adjustable reamers kit
- 12 ton hydraulic press
- 2 carts
- C-clamps (a lot!)
- Helmet, apron (2x), gloves (2x) (By the way, the apron is useful... i caught in fire when not using it. Look at the big holes in the jacket)

There are other similar machines on the web with different plans prices. Just google towable backhoe or homemade backhoe.

Harbor Freight Tools (Towable backhoe) sells one. Looks to me flimsier than the one I am building, but could be well enough for a lot of needs (I am an engineer, so I always bend on the over design side)

This guy built one. He posted nice videos on youtube. He is a software engineer (Like me).

This another guy is awesome: in 35 videos you can see the entire building process. His nickname on youtube is 500passwords.

Yet another one who posted useful pictures (Another software engineer).

JM

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