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Daily Digest 1/11 - 10 Things Americans Get Wrong About America, Is a Crash Just Around the Corner?

Monday, January 11, 2016, 10:35 AM


10 things Americans get wrong about America (Aaron M.)

You know when you move out of your parents’ house and live on your own, how you start hanging out with your friends’ families and you realize that actually, your family was a little screwed up? As it turns out, stuff you always assumed was normal your entire childhood was pretty weird and may have actually fucked you up a little bit. You know, dad thinking it was funny to wear a Santa Claus hat in his underwear every Christmas or the fact that you and your sister slept in the same bed until you were 22, or that your mother routinely cried over a bottle of wine while listening to Elton John.

World would be more balanced if Russia asserted national interests from outset – Putin (richcabot)

The “patriarch of European politics” at the time, German diplomat Egon Karl-Heinz Bahr said on June 26, 1990: “If while uniting Germany we do not take decisive steps to overcome the division of Europe into hostile blocs, the developments can take such an unfavorable turn that the USSR will be doomed to international isolation.”

Colonel Gaddafi warned Tony Blair of Islamist attacks on Europe, phone conversations reveal (richcabot)

"We are not fighting them, they are attacking us, " he said, "I want to tell you the truth. It is not a difficult situation at all. The story is simply this: an organisation has laid down sleeping cells in North Africa. Called the Al-Qaeda Organisation in North Africa... The sleeping cells in Libya are similar to dormant cells in America before 9/11.

Empires (Like the U.S.) Fall When Corruption Becomes Rampant (richcabot)

Most historians point to “degenerate Sultans, incompetent Grand Viziers, debilitated and ill-equipped armies, corrupt officials, avaricious speculators, grasping enemies, and treacherous friends.

Is Bloomberg Hiding Something? (reflector)

Curiously enough, on Monday, December 1, 2015, we published an article on this website, click here "The Crumbling World Order, and Who Will Pick Up the Crumbs?" which pointed out that International Reserves have been contracting since August 2014 and up to November 27, 2015, had diminished by $752 billion dollars, or 6.25% of the total achieved at the peak back in August, 2014. And we remarked that this contraction was unprecedented, since we have data going back to 1948, and never, ever, has there been a sustained contraction in the total of Central Bank International Reserves since the creation of the present international monetary system in 1944, at Bretton Woods.

Shipping Said to Have Ceased… Is the Worldwide Economy Grinding to a Halt? (Aaron M.)

Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.

This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.

Is a Crash Just Around the Corner? (Tiffany D.)

I may be jumping the gun a bit by bringing this up now, but it’s important to note that the Fed believes it is on track to raise rates at least three more times in 2016, which would mean we could cross the “three steps” threshold in just a matter of months.

This is your early warning sign that danger is just around the corner. A tightening cycle by the Fed does one thing every time: slow our economy and end up in a stock market crash.

Where Were the Post-Hebdo Free Speech Crusaders as France Spent the Last Year Crushing Free Speech? (jdargis)

In October, France’s highest court upheld the criminal conviction of activists who advocate boycotts and sanctions against Israel as a means of ending the occupation. What did these criminals do? They “arrived at the supermarket wearing shirts emblazoned with the words: ‘Long live Palestine, boycott Israel'” and “also handed out fliers that said that ‘buying Israeli products means legitimizing crimes in Gaza.'” Because boycotts against Israel were deemed “anti-semitic” by the French court, it was a crime to advocate them. Where were all the post-Hebdo crusaders when these 12 individuals were criminally convicted for expressing their political views critical of Israel? Nowhere to be found.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 1/8/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."


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Arch Coal files for bankruptcy protection

Arch Coal Files for Bankruptcy Protection

Arch Coal Inc., one of the U.S.’s largest coal producers, filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday in a bid to trim $4.5 billion in debt from its balance sheet to counter decreased demand and falling prices for its products.

The St. Louis-based company said it had a restructuring agreement with lenders that hold more than 50% of its $1.9 billion in first-lien debt, one that offers some recovery to unsecured creditors.

In broad outline, Arch is proposing a debt-for-equity swap that would leave most of the company in the hands of the first-lien lenders, while unsecured creditors owed billions would be offered options, including a share of 4% of the equity in the reorganized coal company.

Monday’s filing followed unsuccessful efforts to avert bankruptcy through a debt exchange designed to postpone the maturity of Arch bonds. The failure of that effort triggered warnings from Arch that it could be forced to file for chapter 11 protection.

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Fed Sent Record $97.7 Billion in Profits to US Treasury in 2015

Fed Sent Record $97.7 Billion in Profits to US Treasury in 2015

Wall Street Journal-45 minutes ago
The Fed said Monday that the $97.7 billion figure for 2015 is preliminary and may be adjusted when the central bank's audited financial statements are ...

Arch Coal Files for Bankruptcy, Reaches $4.5 Billion Debt Deal

Bloomberg-5 hours ago
While there's no denying that China's selling may dent demand for Treasuries in the near term, the fact the nation is raising hundreds of billions of dollars to ...

Glencore Debt Swaps Jump to Six-Year High as Copper Price Slides

swissinfo.ch-42 minutes ago
(Bloomberg) -- The cost of insuring Glencore Plc's debt against default rose to a more than six-year high as the price of raw materials such as copper continued ...

Rand Has Flash Crash as China's Woes Trigger Drop of Up to 9%

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
South Africa sold 37 percent of its exports to China in 2014. “The risk .... Treasuries 10-year note yields rose from the lowest level in more than two months.

Rand Meltdown Brings South African Recession, Junk Rating Closer

Bloomberg-3 hours ago
Rising inflation risks stemming from the rand may force the central bank to take more aggressive action in tightening policy at a time when the economy is barely ...

Zuma Premium Haunts South Africa as Default Risk Rises: Chart

Bloomberg-5 hours ago
Following Nene's replacement by a little-known lawmaker, the cost of insuring the nation's debt against default for five years climbed to the highest since April ...

China opens new front in war on speculators

Financial Times - ‎2 hours ago‎
The elevated overnight CNH Hong Kong Interbank Offer Rate (Hibor) shows how volatility in China's currency — once a highly domestic sideshow for global investors — is fanning out across the globe through renminbi internationalisation. Hong Kong, the ...

China's central bank fends off attack on yuan in Hong Kong

South China Morning Post (subscription) - ‎15 hours ago‎
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday fought off an attack on the yuan by currency speculators, in the process driving up the cost of borrowing for offshore yuan to its highest ever. CNH Hibor, or the interbank rate for offshore yuan in Hong Kong ...

London Hedge Fund Omni Sees 15% Yuan Drop, and More in a Crisis

Bloomberg - ‎13 hours ago‎
The declining currency, a debt pile estimated at 280 percent of gross domestic product and a volatile equity market are complicating Premier Li Keqiang's efforts to boost an economy estimated to grow at the slowest pace in 25 years. While intervention ...

Offshore Yuan Liquidity Dies, Sending Interbank Rate Soaring

Wall Street Journal - ‎11 hours ago‎
It comes after Chinese banks, proxy for China's central bank, intervened in the market and bought up the yuan last week. “As these banks are ... This effectively increased the cost for speculators to borrow and short the yuan, traders say. The spot CNH ...

Shenzhen closes down 6.6% as China market rout continues

Financial Times-10 hours ago
China equities plunged further on Monday after one of the most horrid weeks on record, as investors failed to take heart from efforts by the central bank to ...

Crude Oil Tumbles to 12-Year Low as Hedge Funds Head for Exit

Bloomberg - ‎1 hour ago‎
... adding to last week's 10 percent decrease. Speculators' net-long position in West Texas Intermediate declined 24 percent in the week to Jan. 5, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Producer prices in China fell for a record 46th ...

Nigeria: Central Bank Cuts Dollar Supplies As Currency Crisis Worsens

Forbes - ‎14 minutes ago‎
Nigeria's central bank has announced that it will halt all US dollar sales to bureau de change operators, as the country struggles to cope with a crippling shortage of hard currency. Under the new measures, Nigerian banks will also be able to accept ...

Copper Falls to New Six-Year Low on Concerns Over China

Wall Street Journal-5 hours ago
The industrial-metals complex has been under pressure after China's central bank engineered a weakening of the yuan. According to analysts the price of ...

wave of sovereign debt crises can come sweeping

gulfnews.com-8 hours ago
When it comes to sovereign debt, the term “default” is often misunderstood. It almost never entails the complete and permanent repudiation of the entire stock of ...

Holiday Hangovers: Tackling Credit Card Debt in the New Year

Bloomberg - ‎1 hour ago‎
The full year-data isn't yet in, but the Federal Reserve's most recent measure of all consumer or household debt, released Friday, clocked in at a whopping $3.5 trillion at the end of November. This measure, which includes credit card debt as well as ...

Why the Student Loan Crisis Is Even Worse Than People Think

TIME-7 hours ago
When discussing the student debt crisis, most people focus on the rapid growth ... of college, even though they are four times more likely to default on their loans.

The Watchdogs: Chicago paid record borrowing-related fees in 2015

Chicago Sun-Times-17 hours ago
... that say we are in default or had to pay higher [interest] rates because we are below .... Bond proceeds also were used to pay $35 million in debt from Daley's ...

One in Six Occupational Pension Schemes could fail (UK)

Lexology (registration)-6 hours ago
... but will not survive if the pension deficit remains on the corporate balance sheet. The remaining 600 will never ever pay full benefits and the question becomes ...

More than 60 DPS schools closed due to teacher sickout

The Detroit News-4 hours ago
... 2009, has $515 million in past debts and unpaid vendor and pension bills. ... and no budget deficit when teachers took a nine-day strike to start the 1999-2000 ...

Illinois' lengthy budget delay to dominate 2016 legislative session

STLtoday.com - ‎9 hours ago‎
Also hovering over lawmakers is the state's $111 billion pension debt. The state Supreme Court threw out the ... Democrats want a combination of cuts and a tax increase to settle the dispute and plug a multibillion deficit. Rauner is open to increasing ...

States Try To Hide the Burden of Debt by Fudging Numbers

Daily News-3 hours ago
The worst case scenario is seen in Illinois where the “unfunded liability” for ... as much money as they promised into pension plans, causes many states to be in ...

CalPERS' new risk mitigation plan won't fix what ails it

Pensions & Investments-8 hours ago
The reduced assumption about investment return will require higher contributions by employers, because future pension costs will be discounted by the lower ...

The State of Chris Christie's New Jersey, in Six Charts

Bloomberg-6 hours ago
The state's borrowing costs compared with top-rated 10-year municipal bonds swelled as its credit rating fell nine times under Christie thanks to the pension ...

U.S. coal production falls to lowest level in nearly 30 years

Southeast Missourian-12 hours ago
The slump has led to bankruptcies and layoffs at mining companies, and the effects have rippled outward, stressing state budgets and forcing layoffs in other ...

Alarm bells sound in manufacturing over global economy

Telegraph.co.uk-18 hours ago
Alarm bells are ringing for Britain's manufacturing companies as increased global volatility and growing pressures at home batter confidence within the sector.


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Fed hands record $117 billion in earnings to Treasury

Fed hands record $117 billion in earnings to Treasury

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Rickards: Yuan must go lower, consequences will continue


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Maritime shipping stops

"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt"

The continued collapse of The Baltic Dry Index.  Today down to 415

Last week, I received news from a contact who is friends with one of the biggest billionaire shipping families in the world.   He told me they had no ships at sea right now, because operating them meant running at a loss.

This weekend, reports are circulating saying much the same thing: The North Atlantic has little or no cargo ships traveling in its waters. Instead, they are anchored. Unmoving. Empty.

Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.

This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; commerce is literally stopped.


From VesselFinder.com and MarineTraffic.com


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But wait, there's more!


The pundits can disingenuously blame the crashing Baltric Dry Index  on container ship overcapacity and find some dopes to believe that fairy tale, but there’s only one explanation for collapsing rail freight shipment volume in the United States:  the consumer has finally suffocated from too much debt and declining real income.

We believe rail data may be signaling a warning for the broader economy,” the recent note from Bank of America says. “Carloads have declined more than 5 percent in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis. While one-off volume declines occur occasionally, they are geUntitlednerally followed by a recovery shortly thereafter. The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last week’s -10.1 percent decline, has not occurred since 2009.  – Bank of America brain trust

Eric Dubin of The News Doctors brought this article to my attention:  Rail Traffic Is Saying Something Worrying About the U.S. Economy

I’d like to point out that the price of oil is collapsing.  It will soon be in the $20’s.  Several Wall Street fraud shops have decided that oil is headed to $20.  I made that call 6 months ago.  Oil is the economy’s canary in the coal mine that the Fed can not remove before it dies.  Rail freight traffic is the canary’s twin brother.

I hope everyone is braced for impact because the system is in for a much bigger shock than occurred in 2008/2009…and the Fed is out of bullets – just ask former Fed President Richard Fisher…

False flag in 5.... 4.... 3....

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I don't think that map shows

I don't think that map shows all ships. Last year I shipped a wood chipper from Finland and I tracked the ship on what looks like the same site. I could only track when it was close to shore and was not visible when crossing the Atlantic. If I wanted to spend a bunch of money for a subscription I could have probably tracked it across.

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Good-bye and thank-you, David

From the Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/music/music-news/12092385/David-Bowie-dies-from-cancer-latest.html

David Bowie dies from cancer aged 69: Dutch website reports that David Bowie died from liver cancer

The sad news is confirmed that the star musician has died, surrounded by his family, after an 18-month battle with cancer, aged 69


Astronaut who sang 'Space Oddity' in orbit pays tribute to David Bowie, http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/11/10749622/david-bowie-space-oddity-chris-hadfield-cover-memoriam


"Ashes to ashes, dust to stardust. Your brilliance inspired us all. Goodbye Starman."

                                                            -Former Astronaut Chris Hadman on twitter



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Shipping said to have ceased? Falsely true.

Aaah, yes.  Somebody said shipping has ceased. 

Then, if you read down to the comments, you will see that lots of other somebodies pointed out that the system only tracks ships within 40 miles of the shore, using land-based antennae.  Moreover, if you look at areas (such as bays), you will find that there are actually a lot of ships in transit.

Yes, shipping is down.

No, shipping has not ceased.

Yes, rail traffic in the US is down.  Yes, we may be seeing signs of a coming rerecession. No, it isn't the end of the world, just the edge.  (No, just kidding).

Next article.

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Plunging prices could force a third of U.S. oil firms into bankr

Plunging prices could force a third of U.S. oil firms into bankruptcy

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The first collapse of Globalism

Happened in 1177 BC.

Interesting note: Bronze wasn't dropped in favour of iron because iron was better, but because tin wasn't available. Flash forward to our own times. Oil won't be dropped because Cold Fusion is better,  but because oil will no longer be available.

You are a creature of habit.   Habit-> OCD-> instinct. The proclivity  to form habits is on a continuum with blind instinct. You are trapped by your behaviors. 


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RE: "Nothing Is Moving,"

sandpuppy wrote:

"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt"


while shipping is down to be sure, some mis-information is being spread.

the original story was from superstation95, a nyc radio station, i browsed their site, they seem to have some nonsense content on there, much like naturalnews, beforeitsnews, or other schlock sites. i would not trust their content.


the story was then picked up by jeff berwick of dollarvigilante.com. while jeff does some good work informing people of the dangers of government and the fraudulent nature of the financial system, jeff is certainly not the most sober nor accurate of individuals, he is prone to hyperbole, exaggeration, speculation, and fear-mongering. and heavy drinking.

then, somehow, zerohedge picked up berwick's story and ran with it.

if you read the comments on dollarvigilante.com, they indicate that the marine positioning system mentioned only tracks ships close to shore, doesn't track vessels at sea.

so, no, sea traffic has not ground to a complete halt, even though it has slowed.





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10-yr Perspective

Baltic Dry Index over the last 10 years.


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Apologize for hyperbole

I see that, as several of you very correctly pointed out, the link I put up yesterday ("Commerce has come to a halt") was WAY overly dramatized.

So doing a bit of homework.....

It looks like the Baltic Dry Index tracks the COST of shipping in Dry Bulk carriers.  (Grain, coal, iron ore, cement).  It can be thought of as reflecting raw material going to manufacturing or construction projects. It is effected by the amount of dry bulk raw materials being shipped and the numbers of container ships at sea.  Small drops in shipping volume affect the price rapidly due to inelasticity in numbers of ships, then later, after a couple of years lag time, the number of container ships.

Another index is the Harpex Shipping Index.

Harpex is the container ship index of ship brokers Harper Petersen & Co. .... The HARPEX index is considered a suitable indicator of global economic fleet shipping activity since it tracks changes in freight rates for container ships over broad categories.

It seems that already manufactured goods are shipped in containers, and the Harpex Index reflects this better.

The Harpex index is slightly different than the better-known Baltic Dry Index that tracks freight costs for dry bulk ships that usually carry ... raw materials such as coal, ore and grain.


Both Baltic Dry and Harpex are near historic lows.


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