Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 12/27 - Nature's Warning Signal, When Does It Make Sense to Cheat?

Sunday, December 27, 2015, 1:32 PM

Economy

The Ungoverned World (jdargis)

The violence and chaos inside Syria, where Islamic State terrorists and other rebel groups control large portions of the country, is so dire that millions of people have fled and the U.N. has stopped trying to keep count of the dead. Yet Syria is just one of many places across the globe where warlords, separatists, drug cartels, or terror groups have seized territory within a sovereign nation, leaving the government with little or no power—and the people to fend for themselves.

58 Facts About The U.S. Economy From 2015 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe (richcabot)

These days, most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. At this point 62 percent of all Americans have less than 1,000 dollars in their savings accounts, and 21 percent of all Americans do not have a savings account at all.

When Does It Make Sense to Cheat? (jdargis)

This year has been full of cheaters. From bad boy pharmaceutical executive Martin Shkreli to the Patriots' Tom Brady to Volkswagen, allegations and incidents of cheating have been front-page news fodder. But can an economic case be made in favor of such duplicitous dealings? Robert Stonebraker, a professor at Winthrop University, joins Aki and Tori to discuss how the decision to cheat is a rational one, and why it's becoming easier to make thanks to globalization.

A wary start to Syrian refugees’ new life in Kentucky (jdargis)

They were flying over the United States, where polls showed that a majority of residents said they didn’t want more Syrian refugees. They descended into Kentucky, where the new governor had vowed to block arrivals because of “risks to our citizens.” They landed in Louisville, where at that moment in late December a Republican presidential debate was being broadcast live on airport TVs.

In the late 1970s, Big Oil worried it could be held accountable for rising carbon emissions (jdargis)

In a 1998 draft memo that it circulated among its members, API said of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, “Unless ‘climate change’ becomes a non-issue, meaning that the Kyoto proposal is defeated and there are no further initiatives to thwart the threat of climate change, there may be no moment when we can declare victory for our efforts.”

An oil industry campaign helped to block implementation of Kyoto in the US, and in 2010 to defeat Obama administration climate legislation.

year of reckoning: Police fatally shoot nearly 1,000 (jdargis)

Regardless of race, in more than a quarter of cases, the fatal encounter involved officers pursuing someone on foot or by car — making chases one of the most common scenarios in the data. Some police chiefs and training experts say more restrictive rules on when to give chase could prevent unnecessary shootings.

Nature's Warning Signal (jdargis)

The Peter Lake experiment demonstrated a well-known problem with complex systems: They are sensitive beasts. Just as when the Earth periodically plunges into an ice age, or when grasslands turn to desert, fisheries suddenly collapse, or a person slumps into a deep depression, systems can drift toward an invisible edge, where only a small change is needed to touch off a dramatic and often disastrous transformation. But systems that exhibit such “critical transitions” tend to be so complicated and riddled with feedback loops that experts cannot hope to calculate in advance where their tipping points lie—or how much additional tampering they can withstand before snapping irrevocably into a new state.

Eight Dead as Tornadoes Strike the Dallas Area (jdargis)

Five of the deaths were reported at the intersection of Interstate 30 and the President George Bush Turnpike, where a tornado threw cars off an overpass into traffic below, said Officer Joe Harn, the public information officer for the Garland Police Department. Photos posted on Twitter showed a tangle of overturned cars on I-30.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 12/25/15

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

12 Comments

jonesb.mta's picture
jonesb.mta
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 11 2008
Posts: 126
year of reckoning: Police fatally shoot nearly 1,000

There's a very simple way to stop the shooting of innocent people. Instead of having the taxpayer foot the bill for awards, let the police pension plans pay for the awards. The "good cops" will start turning on the "bad cops" when the money for awards starts comes out of their retirement.

thc0655's picture
thc0655
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 27 2010
Posts: 1517
WaPo article on police shootings is a homerun

I don't usually have much good to say about Washington Post "news" coverage, and almost never have anything to say about what they print about police issues. However, the article in today's Daily Digest is a sterling example of excellent modern journalism.  I wish we could have more of that from MSM sources.  The article went into depth, rather than just skimming the surface of some very difficult and complex issues. The article showed both sides of the issue without telling the reader, subtly or overtly, which side is the "right" side.  The words chosen were wisely chosen to inform rather than to inflame.  I would quibble with just a few things, but I won't even mention them so that my recommendation isn't diluted.

The WaPo research and article are a valuable public service that I'm glad to see will be continuing in 2016. However, I would suggest we try to keep it all in perspective because there are other deaths we as a society aren't counting or focusing a lot of light on.  For instance, what kind of article could we write if we were counting how many people were "killed" by doctors and nurses?  The number would be 100 or 200 times the number of people killed by police, and almost none of the "victims" were armed or could be construed to be in any way a threat to the medical personnel or the public.  How about an article on the many thousand of people who have died of self-induced drug overdoses this year?  As we correctly look at how few officers are indicted and how few of those are convicted, let's not lose sight of how few politicians, bankers, financiers, doctors and nurses are indicted or convicted.  Police face prosecution more than all four of those groups (and others).  The rot infests our whole society from top to bottom.

In the long run, all the scrutiny on police will have a cleansing, antiseptic effect on police work.  In the meantime, it's difficult, complicated and messy.  Personally, I'd have long ago bought my own body camera at my own expense to protect myself from false allegations, but I am strictly forbidden from doing so by my department.  In one of our Districts we are running a pilot program but there is not enough money to buy cameras for the whole department so we remain exposed to false accusations.  Just the other day an irate woman came to the public window of our District to file a formal complaint because she said two officers in our prisoner wagon had run into her in her car and left the scene leaving her injured and her car damaged.  The officers were questioned and claimed nothing of the sort happened and the accusation was pure fabrication.  The highest ranking officer on duty was called in to deal with the situation.  Feigning outrage that his officers would do such a thing, the clever Lt. asked the woman to confirm that the wagon in question was our new vehicle.  She said yes and gave the vehicle number.  The Lt. said, "Perfect!  That wagon has dashcam video.  Wait right here, ma'am, while I go get the video."  The woman muttered, "Oh, never mind!" and stormed out of the building never to be seen again.

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4066
Shale's Running Out of Survival Tricks as OPEC Ramps Up Pressure

Shale's Running Out of Survival Tricks as OPEC Ramps Up Pressure

Bloomberg-7 hours ago
“Oil and gas companies are under pressure because of the Chinese statistic over the ... cash is up less, and 30-year Treasuries and commodities dropped.

Modi Seeks to Curb Gas Subsidies to Contain India Budget Gap

Bloomberg-3 hours ago
“Oil and gas companies are under pressure because of the Chinese statistic over the ... cash is up less, and 30-year Treasuries and commodities dropped.

Treasuries Draw Weakest Demand Since '09 as Central Banks Unload

Bloomberg-14 hours ago
Demand at U.S. Treasury auctions fell this year to the lowest since 2009 as Wall ... Meanwhile, China -- the U.S.'s largest foreign creditor -- is on pace to trim its ...

Negative yields on Irish Government bonds

Irish Times - ‎14 hours ago‎
More than €27 billion of Irish Government bonds are among some €1.5 billion in euro zone government debt where the yield is less than zero, indicating that markets expect European Central Bank policy to remain strongly supportive of bonds in 2016 ...
 

S. Korea's private debt hits record high in Q3

Korea Times-14 hours ago
While upgrading South Korea's sovereign credit rating to Aa2 from Aa3 on Dec. ... increase in the country's household debt could weigh on growth next year.

Private debt's ratio to GDP exceeds 180%

The Korea Herald-6 hours ago
South Korea's private sector debt reached a record high in proportion to its ... debt grew 10.4 percent on-year to 1,166 trillion won ($1 trillion) as of the end of ...
 

The War against Cash, Part II

Town Hall-7 hours ago
... so the thinking in official circles is that if you could implement negative interest rates, people could be pushed to be good little Keynesians because any money ...
 

China to refinance 11 trillion yuan local govt debt within 3 years: Paper

AsiaOne-5 hours ago
SHANGHAI - China plans to refinance the remaining outstanding local government debt as of end-2014 within around three years, the state-owned China ...
 

Which Puerto Rico Bond Defaults Next? 42% Yields Provide a Clue

Bloomberg-3 hours ago
Opinions vary on how to fix Puerto Rico's $70 billion debt crisis, but analysts, investors, credit-rating companies and even Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla ...
 

Hong Kong's November Exports Fall 3.5% From a Year Earlier

Bloomberg-6 hours ago
About $99 billion in face value of high-yield energy bonds are trading at ... a pickup in distressed asset sales and a pickup in distressed debt exchanges,” said ...
 

Pension challenge may cost New Jersey billions

NorthJersey.com-12 hours ago

... leader who can reform the United States' fiscal problems and rein in $19 trillion in debt. ... The govern

Saudi posts record USD 98 billion deficit in 2015: ministry

Business Standard-3 hours ago
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia posted a record USD 98 billion budget deficit in 2015 ... 2014 income, while spending came in at 975 billion riyals (USD 260 billion), ...

The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere

Bloomberg-6 hours ago
About $99 billion in face value of high-yield energy bonds are trading at ... selling stakes in state-owned companies to help stem a budget deficit that reached 20 ...

 

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 653
Preparation Assumptions

Preparation Assumptions

 
 
1. Many of us have prepared with food, water and six months cash for emergencies.
 
2. Some have also prepared by taking out cash from banks, insurance companies, stocks and bonds, etc.
 
3.Others have financially diversified internationally.
 
4. Even some have purchased and read Prosper: The solutions.
 
5. Most also have purchased gold/silver as collapse insurance.
 
6. Most follow PP.com on a daily basis and read especially the Insider info.
 
7. A few (?) have actually prepared "TARGET or BUY lists."
 
8. Many are still waiting for the BOTTOM or near-bottom!
 
9. Others have given up on financial/political change and focus on preparation for self, family, and friends, or neighbors.
 
So, I have a few questions about all this.
 
a) Some recommend at least 5-10% of assets in metals.  While others say: even up to 80%, or it depends.
 
b) Many frequently recommend having TARGET/BUY lists but hardly ever make any specific recommendations--too risky?
 
Which leaves me unsatisfied and a little confused.
 
HOW does one CREATE a TARGET LIST?
 
For example, compile a list of all potential natural resources,
(I've got over 35 by now) and buy the top 3 companies of each??
 
But it seems that ENERGY-RELATED companies are the best way to go.  Thus, top 3 in Oil, Coal, Natural Gas, Uranium.
 
However, some say the BIGGEST returns will be in JUNIOR mines!
But WHICH, of course???  And Why?
 
Care to help us CREATE a decent TARGET LIST-a "community" endeavor???
 
Or, am I tilting at windmills--as usual.  Kenp.
VeganDB12's picture
VeganDB12
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2008
Posts: 731
the target list

Ken

I enjoy your posts and I try to limit my posts here at PP because I cannot reply readily....but I couldn't resist answering you.

I know why I don't discuss my personal target list.

I simply CANNOT stomach putting another dime in the market. It is not a logical answer, it is a completely visceral response like one gets after eating bad tofu lol....I cannot go back there again. I wonder if my aversive reaction will change after the next crash. I doubt it. 

I hope and pray people younger than me do not take this approach since their timelines are different.

My list is pretty simple...if a deflationary collapse occurs I will buy property at that time. And I am saving now to help myself and those around me who are unable to prepare. 

AKGrannyWGrit's picture
AKGrannyWGrit
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 6 2011
Posts: 433
Target List

It dawns on me that creating a "Target" list is not a list of supplies to buy at the big box store Target but rather acquisitions to purchase for pennies on the dollar when the big crash or collapse hits.  Will these purchases be made to not only pick up a valuable asset but also provide jobs so that families can continue to eat three meals a day?  Or is it about acquiring more, and more and more?  Not sure how taking advantage of others misery is much different than the hordes who fight over an electronic widget at Wal Mart on Black Friday.  Greed and fear I think.  Instead of getting rich while others suffer why not come up with some ideas on how to help the millions and millions of children who be severely impacted.  The sign of a collapsing empire is when "enough" is never "enough"!  Sorry not on board with this plan unless it involves helping others at the same time as acquiring and hoarding assets.

AKGrannyWGrit

PS -not picking on you Ken only stating my opinion.

Time2help's picture
Time2help
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 9 2011
Posts: 2769
Target List

Titling a post "Target List" is almost like saying "Missile Launch". Just sayin'.

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 2939
Local Targets

Granny --

I look at the concept of a target list a little bit differently.

Mostly, I ask the question: What resources will be most in need in my local community during hard times?

I look at local businesses that are essential or highly-useful (feed stores, food suppliers, repair shops, etc). If those were in danger of shuttering, could I step in and help rescue them?

Similarly, like VeganD, I look at local properties with productive cropland, livestock, orchards, etc and ask: if the owners were forced to sell, might I be able to purchase and keep the land in operation?

Yes, there's an element of buying when prices are much cheaper than they are today. In most cases, for me to be able to afford these assets, that's going to be a pre-requisite anyways. But the primary drive is not to profit grossly on someone else's misfortune -- instead, it's to preserve and steward valued local assets (and jobs and skills) my community is counting on.

Anyways, that's my perspective on my own 'target list'. Others views may differ.

cheers,
A

AKGrannyWGrit's picture
AKGrannyWGrit
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 6 2011
Posts: 433
Thanks For Feedback

Time2Help - sorry but I don't have a clue as to the meaning of your post?  Missle Launch?

Adam, "preserve and steward valued local assets". That's an action that exemplifies compassion and good judgment, as well as, community leadership, so accolades for that!

In my community I am watching a Trailer Park being plowed down and new businesses are moving in.  Where people are going to move to where they can pay $500 a month rent is a mystery, a large cardboard box perhaps.  A local supply store I purchased from regularly was bought by a larger chain store and then promptly closed so now there is little competition and little choice.  I represent Mrs. (working) Middle America and our lifeblood is being sucked dry by those that want more.  Our health care us going up, our taxes are going up, our utilities are going up again and the cost of everything is going up.  We get no assistance of any kind and at some point there will be nothing left to take, give up or steal.  If you can acquire something and then help your community in the process I am all for it.  That kind of acquisition would be an exception rather than business as usual I think.

Feeling a little cranky as I just opened my gas bill and was reminded of the new rate increase taking effect in January not to mention our medical deductible went up by another $2,000 (each) per year, that means we have a $6,000 deductible in 2016.  So acquiring assets to help people, I will be your biggest fan, just one more person trying to get rich at our expense would be another nail in our collective coffin.

Curmudgeon Today

 

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 653
Targets for self, family, friends and NEIGHBORS

Granny.  I thought I said those words above: see # 9.  But you spelled it out nicely, and I, of course, agree. And the more I can help myself, the more I am able to help others, no?  Sharing is an innate quality, I believe.  I've also found that the more financial resources I have, the more options I have to contribute. But I can see from the few responses that I'd do better to drop my idea.  Not the first time, either.  Whenever I start asking for specifics, there seems to be a deafening silence??  When will I learn?  Ken

Trun87114's picture
Trun87114
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 28 2013
Posts: 80
Ken

Ken, 

i think you asked a very important and very legitimate question. I also think Granny's rough response to you was completely unfounded.  Wanting yourself and your family to prosper or at least build a buffer zone against upcoming hard times does not preclude you or me from also wanting to help others. 

As to the lack of replies to your question, my guess is that is because most of the rest of us are asking the same question. I really wish Chris would chime in here because both he and David mentioned their "buy lists" but did not give examples of what was on them, save for a vague reference to energy.

if I had to give a personal buy list, it would go something like this.  

My wife's vehicle is 11 years old and mine is 15.  If there is a recession or depression, I would expect vehicle prices to decrease, just like they did in 2008 and 2009.  So, I'm holding off, and trying to convince my wife to do the same, in anticipation of much lower prices.

i got burned last year by stupidly betting on oil futures to rebound after the big fall and holding too long as they kept falling. I'm watching and considering dabbling again with tight stops if/when we get another leg down. 

I've been totally out of equities since June.  I guess I was early.  When we finally do get a 30% or more correction I will probably buy some VTI and maybe some bombproof businesses like PSA or BDX. 

Im not rich enough to be a serious property investor but if I was I'd certainly be making a list of potential properties, particularly those with arable land. (I keep trying to improve my own piece of land too, to boost my personal resilience, but I'm not waiting for a crash to do that!)

All that plus $5 will get you some overpriced coffee at Starbucks, so take it with that in mind. Hopefully it will at least get you to thinking. I hope you'll post your own tentative buy list so that the rest of us can benefit from your thinking. 

Thomas

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 653
A Target/BUY List

Thanks 81714.   For others, see #11 above.

Okay. About time that I talk the talk and walk the walk.  So here goes:

Assumption that Chris and others are correct--that is, that AFTER the "correction/collapse," energy-related companies will be the best way to go. The BIG boys with resources IN GROUND. However, more gains with juniors but much more difficult to determine which, methinks.  Now, IF ONLY, I had an unlimited supply of $!

 
Therefore:
 
1. Oil:   Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, Chevron, Occidental
 
2. Coal:  Peabody, Arch Coal, Cloud Peak Energy
 
3. Natural Gas: Chesapeake Energy, XOM again, Anadarko Petroleum, 
                          Devon Energy
 
4. Uranium:  BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Cameco Corp, Areva                                   
 
5. Platinum: Anglo Platinum,  Impala Platinum, Vale
 
6. Railroads:  CP, UNP, NSC
 
7. Iron Ore:  Carajas, Samarco, Minas Grande
 
8. Copper: Freeport McMoRan, BHP again. Xstrata
 
          and throw in, "just CAUSE:"
 
9. Gold: Barrick, Gold Corp, Newmont Mining, Newcrest
 
10 Silver: Fresnillo. Gold Corp again, BHP again, KGHM (Poland)
 
11. Agriculture: MOS, SMG, POT, AGU
 
12. Defense (forgive me): LTM, NOC, RTN, BA, GD
 
 
One could pick the TOP ONE in each category, if fewer resources.
 
Any comments??

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