Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 11/2 - The Unmaking of America, Potential SPX Plunge Ahead

Monday, November 2, 2015, 11:25 AM

Economy

The Unmaking of America (jdargis)

Glenda Elizabeth Gilmore and Thomas J. Sugrue, prominent historians at Yale and NYU respectively, don’t even try. In their timely, remarkable new survey of America since 1890, These United States, they argue that in many ways we are back to where we started. They begin in the 1890s, when Gilded Age tycoons like Andrew Carnegie and John Rockefeller controlled much of the nation’s wealth and an enfeebled federal government seemed incapable if not unwilling to stop them. And despite the tremendous strides made during the New Deal and Great Society era, in many ways we find the U.S. facing those exact same problems. Provocatively, Gilmore and Sugrue ask whether the greater equalities of the immediate postwar years, when seen in light of the “long” 20th century, seems less like an inevitability and more like an “historical accident.”

Powerful Gestures (jdargis)

It’s easy to forget that every act of American generosity toward refugees has had to overcome stiff resistance based in ignorance. Historically, Presidential action has made the difference. After the Second World War, Congress passed legislation that made resettlement in the U.S. harder for Jewish victims of Nazism than for Germans uprooted by the war Hitler started. The chairman of the Senate’s immigration subcommittee, Chapman Revercomb, of West Virginia, wrote, “Many of those who seek entrance into this country have little concept of our form of government. Many of them come from lands where Communism had its first growth and dominates the political thought and philosophy of the people.” It took the angry persistence of President Harry Truman to get Congress to expand the numbers and remove the discriminatory provisions.

If you think your own logic came from someone else, you might not believe it (jdargis)

To test their hypothesis of selective laziness, the authors of the Cognitive Science paper created a situation in which 237 workers on Amazon Mechanical Turk were tricked into thinking that their own arguments came from other people. They were presented with a series of logical problems and prompted for their answers as well as an explanation for their reasoning.

Mind The SPX Arch——Potential For A 25% Plunge Ahead (Aaron M.)

Consider also that the MACD is at its most extended since the year 2000 top and the RSI actually made a lower high versus the December 2014 2093.55 peak. Also of note is that the $SPX is the furthest disconnected from its 50MA to the upside in years.

Taking these facts into consideration, especially in context of the weekly and monthly charts we’ve been highlighting, the potential for a giant heads and shoulders pattern remains fully in play.

The Trust Machine (jdargis)

To understand the power of blockchain systems, and the things they can do, it is important to distinguish between three things that are commonly muddled up, namely the bitcoin currency, the specific blockchain that underpins it and the idea of blockchains in general. A helpful analogy is with Napster, the pioneering but illegal “peer-to-peer” file-sharing service that went on line in 1999, providing free access to millions of music tracks. Napster itself was swiftly shut down, but it inspired a host of other peer-to-peer services. Many of these were also used for pirating music and films. Yet despite its dubious origins, peer-to-peer technology found legitimate uses, powering internet startups such as Skype (for telephony) and Spotify (for music streaming)—and also, as it happens, bitcoin.

Greenspan's Nightmare Chart Spoils Labor Department Data Party (jdargis)

“If savings are not being created, therefore investment is not occurring, therefore productivity is not growing, therefore the rate of growth in the economy” is held back, Greenspan said in an Oct. 27 interview in Washington. He said his calculation is “reassuring as a mathematician and an economist, which is what I am. It is dreadfully frustrating as a public official, which I was for 20 years.”

Greater than the sum of its parts (Reflector)

The mixing of genes that has created the coywolf has been more rapid, pervasive and transformational than many once thought. Javier Monzón, who worked until recently at Stony Brook University in New York state (he is now at Pepperdine University, in California) studied the genetic make-up of 437 of the animals, in ten north-eastern states plus Ontario. He worked out that, though coyote DNA dominates, a tenth of the average coywolf’s genetic material is dog and a quarter is wolf.

Jade: A Global Witness investigation into Myanmar's "Big State Secret" (jdargis)

Until now the jade sector’s worth has been almost impossible to determine. But on the basis of new research and analysis, Global Witness estimates the value of jade production to have been as much as US$31 billion in 2014 alone. To put it in perspective, this figure equates to up to 48 per cent of Myanmar’s official GDP and 46 times government expenditure on health.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 10/30/15

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

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saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4066
Repost Of Today's News

 

Apocalypse now: has the next giant financial crash already begun?

The Guardian-7 hours ago
The underlying cause of this debt glut is the $12tn of free or cheap money created by central banks since 2009, combined with near-zero interest rates. When the ...

Global factories struggle as stimulus fails to spur

Reuters-3 hours ago
... increasing or extending its stimulus program and further cutting the deposit ... in the past year, but the stimulus has been slower to take effect than in the past.

EconomyGlobal deflation watch: Thailand still stuck

Financial Times-6 hours ago
if you missed it overnight, Thailand is mired in its 10th month of deflation, as the latest figures highlight the junta's failure to revive the ailing economy, and ...

Obama presidency to end with $20 trillion national debt

Washington Times - ‎16 hours ago‎
Mr. Obama's spending agreement with Congress will suspend the nation's debt limit and allow the Treasury to borrow another $1.5 trillion or so by the end of his presidency in 2017. Added to the current total national debt of more than $18.15 trillion ...

US seen raising T-bills supply by $173 bln-JPMorgan

Reuters-2 hours ago
... exhaust its borrowing capacity, which had been at $18.1 trillion, this week. ... raising the risk it may begin to postpone repayments on its debt obligations.

Bonds Send Same Ominous Signs No Matter Where in World You ...

Bloomberg-18 hours ago
A quick scan across government debt markets suggests that investors are pricing in the likelihood that growth and inflation around the world will remain tepid for ...

China Slide Toward Debt-Deflation Trap Needs 5-Year Plan Fix

Bloomberg-13 hours ago
"China has chosen to continue to inflate the debt bubble and to generate ... and it has about 23 trillion yuan ($3.6 trillion) in bank deposits locked up as reserves.

ECB Stimulus Pushes Denmark Toward Currency Intervention Shift

Bloomberg-1 hour ago
The data contrasted with a report showing China's manufacturing sector continued to ... The rate on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 2.17 percent.

ECB Spent 64 Billion Euros on QE Last Month as Stimulus Reviewed

Bloomberg-11 minutes ago
The European Central Bank accelerated the pace of its bond-buying program in October, as policy makers considered whether to step up stimulus before the ...

As Swedish central bank fights deflation, housing bubble worries mount

Reuters - ‎Nov 1, 2015‎
But the central bank is caught in a dilemma. Leaving rates so low only encourages home buyers. But raising them enough to tamp down the housing frenzy would also slow an inflation rate that is already flirting with zero and has dipped into outright ...

China Expands Cheap Loans to Policy Banks for Favored Projects

Bloomberg - ‎5 hours ago‎
China's central bank offered 70.5 billion yuan ($11.2 billion) to its three policy banks under the Pledged Supplementary Lending program in October, expanding the size of the facility by the most since it began publishing figures in July. The amount ...
 

China Steps Up Market Reforms Amid Record Capital Outflows

Bloomberg - ‎16 hours ago‎
The central bank is finalizing revisions to its foreign-exchange rules that would loosen some capital controls while preserving its ability to intervene in times of volatility, people familiar with the matter said on Monday. The monetary authority said ...

China Financial Crackdown Intensifies as Funds, Banks Targeted

Bloomberg - ‎4 hours ago‎
The Communist Party's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is carrying out its first broad checks on the finance industry since President Xi Jinping became the party's head in November 2012. The summer's stock-market rout in China has triggered ...

Bad loans pile pressure on capital-strapped Greek banks

CNBC-13 hours ago
The central bank's assessment was eagerly awaited by the financial world as a crucial step in determining how much money the Greek banks would require to ...
 

Big banks cut euro, German yield outlook as ECB easing looms

Reuters - ‎3 hours ago‎
The forecasts assume the European Central Bank will expand its quantitative easing bond-buying programme next month and cut its deposit rate further below zero. Both U.S. banks expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate 10 basis points at its Dec. 3 ...

China Needs 6.5% Growth, Leaders Say, In First Confirmation Of Lower Target ...

International Business Times - ‎11 hours ago‎
Last week's meeting of the ruling Communist Party's Central Committee pledged “slower but quality growth” for the 2016-2020 period, with greater emphasis on innovation, consumption and the service sector, to offset the slowdown in China's traditional ...

Hong Kong Exchange Fund Had Biggest Quarterly Loss After Rout

Bloomberg - ‎6 hours ago‎

Hong Kong Exchange Fund, managed by the city's de facto central bank, reported its largest quarterly loss in history by value, as stock prices plummeted amid a market rout. The fund, managed in its current form by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority from ..

German 10-year Bund yields could go as low as 0.1 pct -Citi

Reuters-4 hours ago
LONDON Nov 2 German 10-year bond yields might fall as low as 0.1 percent within six months, nearing April's record low, if the European Central Bank ...

Iceland PM: We dodged the EU bullet

Politico-10 hours ago
The President of the European Central Bank said the risk of a split has virtually ... as Ireland or Greece, and take responsibility for the debts of the failed banks.

Faith in Draghi Lets Bond Investors Ignore Polish Budget Risks

Bloomberg-6 hours ago
“Polish bonds are moving along other markets, expecting ECB action,” Tomasz Bartnicki, a debt manager at MetLife TFI mutual fund in Warsaw with 1.4 billion ...

PBGC rate hikes moving DB plans into danger zone

Pensions & Investments-10 hours ago
Sharply higher Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. premiums resulting from the new federal budget deal will push more employers to shrink or terminate their ...

Sweden risks blowing through budget ceiling to pay for refugees

Chicago Tribune-18 hours ago
Magdalena Andersson risks becoming Sweden's first finance minister to breach the budget ceiling since the current fiscal policy framework was put in place in ...

CBI says UK SME exports are at their lowest levels since the recession while ...

City A.M. - ‎15 hours ago‎
Export orders for UK's small businesses have fallen at the fastest rate since 2009 and domestic orders were also down for the first time in over two years, according to data released today by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Over the three ...

 

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Tall
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 18 2010
Posts: 564
Increasing mortality among middle-aged whites

The mortality rate for white men and women (in the US) between the ages of 45 and 54 with less than a college education increased by half a percent per year between 1999 and 2013, most likely because of problems with legal and illegal drugs, alcohol and suicide, according to the study released in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Before then, death rates for that group were dropping at an average of 2 percent a year.

An increase in the mortality rate for any large demographic group in an advanced nation is virtually unheard of in recent decades, with the exception of Russian men after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-group-of-middle-aged-american-whites-is-dying-at-a-startling-rate/2015/11/02/47a63098-8172-11e5-8ba6-cec48b74b2a7_story.html

Case and Deaton’s data indicate that the white midlife mortality reversal was due almost entirely to increased deaths among those with a high school degree or less. Mortality rates in that group rose by 134 per 100,000 between 1999 and 2013, while there was little change among those with some college, and death rates fell by 57 per 100,000 for those with a college degree or more. (ed- Still higher than other developed countries)

http://prospect.org/article/shocking-rise-white-death-rates-midlife%E2%80%94and-what-it-says-about-american-society

 

 

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saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4066
Is China Cooking the Books on Economic Expansion?

Is China Cooking the Books on Economic Expansion?

U.S. News & World Report-9 hours ago

A recent Wall Street Journal survey of 64 select economists found that 96 percent of respondents think China's GDP estimates don't "accurately reflect the state of the Chinese economy."

They likely "overstate GDP by about 2 to 3 percentage points," said one respondent.

"A government wielding such a heavy hand in markets is surely influencing/manipulating official statistics." said another.

Ironically, China's own premier has previously said he's far from confident in the country's GDP estimates, calling them "man-made" and unreliable, according to a leaked document from 2007 obtained by WikiLeaks. He said government data releases, especially the GDP numbers, should be used "for reference only."

Six Ways to Gauge How Fast China's Economy Is Actually Growing

Bloomberg-6 hours ago
Statistics with Chinese characteristics make it difficult to get a handle on how well the world's second-largest economy is doing. In particular, questions ...

EconomyVenezuela in worst recession in over 70 years

Financial Times - ‎10 hours ago‎
After all, this is a country that has stopped releasing even the most basic economic data on a timely basis. Gross domestic product figures haven't been published since the third quarter of last year. No inflation numbers have been released since ...

CalPERS needs to face facts of underfunding

OCRegister-7 hours ago
The California Public Employees Retirement System has an investment portfolio of almost $300 billion, making it the nation's largest pension fund. Yet, despite ...

CPS Warns Of Potential Layoffs As Union Tells Teachers To Prepare For Strike

CBS Local - ‎4 hours ago‎
... teachers' pension for 100 years so to somehow say, wow, all of a sudden we have a crisis and Springfield caused it or so Springfield isn't doing their fair share, that's just wrong.” But CPS says over the past seven years state funding per-pupil ...

Scranton pension health improves, but remains in perilous condition

Scranton Times-Tribune-22 hours ago
The financial health of Scranton's three pension plans improved slightly within the past two years, but the funds remain in dire condition, with funding ratios well ...

UK defined benefit pension scheme deficit worse than a year ago, finds JLT ...

City A.M. - ‎7 hours ago‎
Even as the UK's largest private sector pension schemes, such as Tesco's, are closing, billions of additional funding have been poured into those funds and huge amounts of time and money have been spent trying to improve the matching of pension assets ...

Minimum wage: billions needed to plug care home 'cash crisis'

The Week UK-16 hours ago
This includes the latest £1bn hit from wage rises, an existing funding shortfall of ..... also receive "10 per cent colleague discount, shares scheme and pension".

Teachers retirement fund earns 5.2%, lowers estimates (NY)

WGRZ-TV-5 hours ago
Over the past five years, the fund had a rate of return of 12.4 percent and over 10 ... The state's pension fund for state and municipal workers ended its fiscal year ...

Social Security going bankrupt

Sun Sentinel-1 hour ago
Second: Social Security's combined retirement and disability trust funds' reserves are projected to be exhausted in 2034. As system finances worsen, and each ...

Saskatchewan debt clock at more than $5 billion and counting

CBC.ca-5 hours ago
"Nobody is arguing that the Saskatchewan government shouldn't be spending on roads and schools, but that's not the reason we have a deficit," MacKay said.

In Illinois' poorest corner, political fight wipes out jobs and social services

Peoria Journal Star - ‎10 hours ago‎
Bruce Rauner took office this year with promises to make Illinois more attractive to businesses and create more new jobs. The former private equity investor insists he won't sign off on a tax increase to close a roughly $5 billion budget hole until ...

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