Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 9/16 - Recession Bites Brazil, China Debts Will Only Get Larger

Wednesday, September 16, 2015, 9:40 AM

Economy

Brazil Unveils a $17 Billion Austerity Package as Recession Bites

The package is designed to address a severe economic downturn. Standard & Poor’s cut Brazil’s sovereign credit rating to junk last week, giving it a score lower than Russia. The South American nation announced last month that its economy is officially in recession; GDP is forecasted to shrink by 1.49% this year after it grew by only 0.1% last year.

Manufacturing in New York shrinks for second straight month

The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index registered minus 14.7 this month after a minus 14.9 in August. Last month's reading was the lowest since 2009 during the Great Recession. And a measure of employment fell in September for the first time in more than two years — to minus 6.2 from a positive 1.8 in August.

Retirement income 'has plummeted 72% in last 15 years' (UK)

It highlights the desperate situation facing many older workers, who may have to delay their retirement plans to avoid ending up in poverty, according to Moneyfacts.

Alaska Revenue Commissioner: Options in Face of Budget Crisis

State Revenue Commissioner Randy Hoffbeck is travelling the state to explain the direness of Alaska’s fiscal crisis. Hoffbeck was in Homer last week and KBBI’s Quinton Chandler spoke with him about the state’s options in the face of low revenues and a $3 billion deficit. Click the icon above to hear a portion of that interview.

France to run deficit on welfare system until at least 2020: Audit body

France will not balance the books of its generous welfare system until at least 2020 as deficit-reduction efforts slow markedly this year, the state audit office said on Tuesday.

For Illinois state employees, it’s cash up front for medical services

“Until the General Assembly passes a balanced budget for FY16, there is nothing else the administration can do to continue to pay healthcare providers. Without a budget in place, there is no mechanism to generate adequate revenue for the healthcare fund or pay expenditures,” Krantz said in a Monday afternoon email to Illinois News Network.

Daiwa analyst known as 'Yuan bear' warns of financial crisis in China

"The debate in the market now is between a soft landing and a hard landing," Lai said. "But I think the real debate should be either a hard landing or a possible financial crisis."

Indonesia raises 5.2 trln rupiah at bond auction, below target

Indonesia sold 5.2 trillion rupiah ($361.11 million) worth of conventional bonds at an auction on Tuesday, well below the indicative target of 8 trillion rupiah, the finance ministry's financing and risk management office said.

China Braces for Second Onshore Bond Default by State Firm

“Because Erzhong is a state-owned company, if it defaults it may arouse investors’ concern about companies’ credit risks,” said Qu Qing, a bond analyst at Huachuang Securities Co. in Beijing.

Illinois Forces Towns to Either Eat Higher Costs or Avoid Market

Illinois’s budget stalemate is leading investors to demand higher yields to lend to its towns and villages, causing bond sales to tumble while borrowers outside the state rush to capture the lowest interest rates in a generation.

China Ramps Up Fiscal Spending as Economy Slows Further

China's fiscal spending surged 25.9% from a year earlier to 1.28 trillion yuan ($200.1 billion) last month, accelerating from a 24.1% pace in July, the Ministry of Finance said Tuesday. In the first eight months of the year, fiscal expenditure rose 14.8% from the same period last year to 10 trillion yuan, according to the official data

Tax cuts are right path to cut Italy's debt, Renzi adviser says

At a record 132 percent of gross domestic product, Italy's debt is the highest in the euro zone after Greece's. Gutgeld, who has a key role in policy formation, argued it could only be brought down in a lasting way by fuelling a still fragile economic recovery, and tax cuts were crucial to achieve this.

Taxpayers beware! NJ debt nears $200 billion for benefits

The unfunded liabilities have reached a staggering $194.5 billion, according to a New Jersey Watchdog analysis of State Treasury records. The shortfall has increased by $19 billion – or roughly 10 percent – in the past year.

Investors Brace for Defaults as Distressed Debt Swamps Market

As that largesse pushed borrowing costs to record lows, energy companies in the middle of a shale boom in the U.S. tapped into the cheap debt to fund their drilling operations. Oil and gas drillers issued $213 billion of junk-rated bonds the past four years, increasing the share of energy-company debt in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index of junk bonds to 13 percent this year from 9.4 percent in 2005.

Korea's household debt highest in ratio to GDP

Economists have expressed concern that record-high household debt could deal a blow to the economy if the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates as early as this month. Higher rates will push up the value of the dollar and investors are expected to exit from emerging markets seeking stable assets, they said.

Mario Draghi backed to expand stimulus

As of September 11, the ECB had settled public-sector bond purchases worth €314.5bn, and spent €116.1bn on covered bonds and €11.9bn on asset-backed securities.

Weak Inflation Gives RBI Elbow Room to Cut Rates: Experts (India)

The RBI, which has lowered rates thrice so far this year by 25 basis points each, is scheduled to hold its next bi-monthly monetary policy review on September 29. 

Serbia cuts rates for 2nd time this month

With an objective of boosting economic growth, Serbia has slashed interest rate for a consecutive second month. The inflation rate is below the government's target and GDP growth rate was also eased in 2014. 

Italy Bad Bank Sparks U.S. Investor Interest, Renzi Aide Says

Central bank data issued last week showed bad loans reached a high of 197 billion euros ($223 billion) in July. The rising stockpile is hindering banks’ ability to expand lending and holding back the country’s recovery from a record-long recession.

Emerging markets tinder, Fed match

China’s credit-to-GDP gap is now at 25 percent, while Brazil’s is nearly 16 percent. To put that in perspective, two thirds of all economies with readings on this measure above 10 percent have in the past experienced “serious banking strains” in the following three years.

China Spending Surge Means Debts Will Only Get Larger

One way or another, though, China’s renewed impulse to build will only delay progress on tackling its debts. Total financing, as measured by the central bank, is still rising several percentage points faster than nominal GDP, meaning China is increasing its overall leverage. Faced with tough times, China will once again kick the debt can down the road.

Czech Central Bank May Need to Ease Policy Further, Lizal Says

Czech rate setters may be forced to not only prolong their loose policy regime but to also ease monetary conditions further if pressures from the euro area continue to undercut inflation, central banker Lubomir Lizal said.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 9/15/15

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

17 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Posts: 4163
S&P Downgrades Japan to 'A+/A-1', Outlook Stable

Denmark's Central Bank Warns of House-Price Speculation Risks

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
Denmark's central bank said a sudden surge in house prices, especially in the capital Copenhagen, suggests buyers are becoming more speculative. “Over the ...

Thai Central Bank Holds Rate as Government Eyes Stimulus

Bloomberg-6 hours ago
Thailand's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a third straight meeting, putting the onus on government spending to support the ...

China's yuan flat on central bank's intervention after early weakening

Financial Express - ‎9 hours ago‎
China's yuan weakened Wednesday morning but was almost unchanged against the dollar at midday after state-owned banks bought the currency on behalf of the central bank to stabilise its rate, traders said. (Reuters) ...

Bank Indonesia Cuts 2016 Forecast Economic Growth Indonesia ...

Indonesia Investments (press release)-6 hours ago
For the second time, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its 2016 forecast for economic growth in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Reuters poll: European Central Bank to extend QE beyond September 2016 say traders

Dispatch Times - ‎8 minutes ago‎
The European Central Bank will expand its asset purchase programme and extend it beyond September next year amid lower inflation expectations, a Reuters poll of euro money market traders found on Monday. “That is also connected to the question of ...

Euro Weakens as Slowing Inflation Boosts Speculation of Stimulus

Bloomberg-3 hours ago
The euro weakened against most major peers as a report showed inflation in the currency bloc slowed almost to a standstill in August. The 19-nation currency ...

UPDATE 1-S&P downgrades Japan, doubts Abenomics can soon reverse deterioration

Reuters - ‎1 hour ago‎
Downgrade follows cuts by rival credit ratings agencies. * Japan struggles to spur growth, little room left for stimulus (Adds analyst quote, detail). By Tetsushi Kajimoto. TOKYO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Wednesday ...

Japan's Debt Ratings Downgraded at S&P

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
Japan's debt ratings were reduced at Standard & Poor's over doubts the government ... The country has some 54 trillion yen ($450 billion) of debt outstanding.

S&P Downgrades Japan to 'A+/A-1', Outlook Stable
StreetInsider.com-3 hours ago

Bank of Japan Maintains QE but Hints at October Stimulus Expansion

MarketPulse (blog) - ‎10 hours ago‎
The Bank of Japan maintained its stimulus program of purchasing 80 trillion yen assets annually. The statement shows Japan economy continue to recover moderately but exports, output affected by slowdown in emerging economies. After the announcement ...

Australian Crackdown on Foreign Property-Buyers Intensifies

Wall Street Journal-9 hours ago
The central bank has warned the property boom is unbalanced and potentially dangerous to a fragile economy, as economists become increasingly nervous ...

RBA's Debelle Says Decline in Bond Market Liquidity Here to Stay

Bloomberg-14 hours ago
Debelle, who oversees markets at the Australian central bank, said it's unclear whether the changed market conditions are “more conducive to temporary flash ...
 

Yellen's Former Aide Says a Rate Hike Would Be a Serious Error

Bloomberg-21 hours ago
If the job market was as tight as central bank officials think, salaries should be rising at a more rapid rate. They're not, he noted. "The true unemployment ...
 

Morgan Stanley cuts Korea's growth estimate

The Korea Herald-6 hours ago
Global investment bank Morgan Stanley has slashed its forecast for South ... The central bank has lowered its policy rate by a total of 1 percentage point to a ...
 

OECD trims growth outlook but urges Fed action this week

Reuters-5 hours ago
"Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months," OECD chief economist Catherine Mann told Reuters in an interview.
OECD Lowers Global Economic Forecast
Wall Street Journal-5 hours ago
OECD trims its global growth forecast
Financial Times-1 hour ago

MarketsOECD downgrades China growth forecasts

Financial Times-4 hours ago
Previously the OECD had forecast that Japan's economy would expand by 0.7 ... the OECD said it believes the Brazilian economy will contract by 2.8 per cent in ...

Russia''s Economy Minister Says GDP Shrinking More Than Expected

Nasdaq-1 hour ago
MOSCOW--The Russia's economy will contract more than previously expected while inflation is set to overshoot initial expectations, Economy Minister Alexei ...
 

China Scraps Overseas Debt Quotas After Capital Outflows Worsen

Bloomberg-10 hours ago
China removed quotas for companies to raise funds in the overseas bond and loan markets, as it tries to staunch capital outflows spurred by a currency ...

Canadian household debt rises; largely due to an increase in ...

CNNMoney-2 hours ago
TORONTO, Sept. 16, 2015 /CNW/ - While Canadian household debt is rising at an accelerated pace the trend is largely driven by mortgage borrowing, which ...

Aussies facing debt until they die

NEWS.com.au-9 hours ago
IF YOU think you'll never escape debt then you're not alone. One in 10 ... On top of that, Australians owe more than $1.37 trillion on their mortgages. The survey ...

Debt storm looms as US walks tightrope of higher rates

Telegraph.co.uk-1 hour ago
The OECD has called for higher US interest rates "soon" to reduce the risk of the economy overheating, but warned that rapid tightening or a hard landing in ...

US credit card debt soaring to unsustainable levels, says study

International Business Times AU-10 hours ago
It estimated that credit card debt levels will increase by another US$60 billion (AU$84.13 billion) by the end of 2015 and take the total U.S. credit card debt, close ...

Illinois Is Canary In The Government Pension Coal Mine

Investor's Business Daily-17 hours ago
When I grew up in the north suburbs of Chicago in the 1960s and '70s, Illinois was still a financial and industrial powerhouse. The Land of Lincoln had a low-rate ...

 

Bankers Slave's picture
Bankers Slave
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Posts: 523
Its one massive orchestrated racket by the elite!

It must be, otherwise, some good things would be happening as well as all the turmoil!

If anyone hears of something good happening , please let us know!

rjs's picture
rjs
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Posts: 445
credit card debt clarification

re: US credit card debt soaring to unsustainable levels, says study

credit card debt is still below the levels of 2007 to 2009...here's the monthly totals:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/HIST/cc_hist_r_levels.html

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Posts: 2247
Massive 8.3 Magnitude Quake Shakes Chile - Tsunami Watch

Per ZH (quoting the AP), @ http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-16/copper-jumps-after-magnitude-83-quake-shakes-chile:

A powerful magnitude-8.3 earthquake shook Chile's capital Wednesday night, causing buildings to sway and people to take refuge in the streets. Several strong aftershocks hit within minutes as tsunami alarms sounded in the nearby port of Valparaiso.

There were no immediate reports on any injuries or damage, but communications were disrupted.

Chilean authorities issued a tsunami alert for the country's entire coast, and U.S. officials posted an alert for Hawaii. Chile's emergency office warned that big waves caused by the quake could hit the coast by 11 p.m. [underline mine]

From ABC, "Hawaii Under Tsunami Watch After 8.3-Magnitude Chile Quake" (@  http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/hawaii-tsunami-watch-83-magnitude-chi...)

Hawaii is under a tsunami watch after an 8.3-magnitude earthquake off the coast of north Chile.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued the watch, saying a tsunami may have been generated by Wednesday's earthquake.

If there is a tsunami, the center estimates that the first wave would arrive about 3 a.m. Thursday.  [underline mine]

Here's to hoping that all our PP.com members in Hawaii, Chili and other affected areas are out of harm's way!

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Posts: 2247
The difference between a tsunami "watch" and "warning"...

For clarification, here's the difference between a "tsunami watch" and a "tsunami warning"

  • A Tsunami Watch is automatically declared by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) for any earthquake magnitude 7.5 or larger (7.0 or larger in the Aleutian Islands) if the epicenter is in an area capable of generating a tsunami. Civil Defense is notified, and the local media is provided with public announcements. PTWC then waits for data from tide gauge stations to confirm whether or not a tsunami has been generated.
  • PTWC also requests reports on wave activity from tide-gauge stations near the earthquake epicenter. If the stations observe no tsunami activity, the Tsunami Watch is canceled. If the stations report that a tsunami has been generated, a Tsunami Warning is issued. A warning may be issued automatically if an earthquake powerful enough to create a tsunami occurs nearby. The emergency broadcast system alerts the public of the danger, and evacuation begins. Remember, tsunamis travel at 500 miles per hour; as soon as a warning has been issued you should evacuate immediately.

Reference: http://www.hilo.hawaii.edu/~nat_haz/tsunamis/watchvwarning.php

 

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 3936
My big sex organ.

Getting a mortgage in Australia where the state sanctioned religion is Real estate was/is a bad idea. Yay for me!

Caveat: Unless the political climate makes a debt jubilee inevitable. Let us hope it is a Steve Keen type. There are going to be many people who will break out in hives at the mention of owning a rates and taxes magnet in the future. 

Anyway, there is an alternative meme to the three Es making the rounds. And that is the one posed by the conspiracy group de jure. Those who believe that the economy is being hollowed out by a breakaway civilization. My heroine CA Fitts is in this camp.

I think that one needs to a true skeptic and keep an open mind. That is what your big sex organ is for. Peacock feathers. 

https://secretspaceprogram.org/

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
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Tsunami is definite... 16' in many places

There definitely is a tsunami ... the only question is whether anything significant will reach Hawaii.  There was a 16' tsunami in many cities along the coast, along with flooding.  At a usgs.noaa recording buoy, located approximately at the armpit of South America's coast, where the depth was 4800'...  it recorded what appeared to be a 20m wave. 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=32401&type=2&seriestim...

So that actually makes me wonder how they got only 16' where the water is shallow (the cities).  No problem, it is what it is, and 16' really beats 100'. 

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/chile/11870597/Tsunami-warnings-in-Chile-and-Peru-as-7.9-quake-hits.html

 

Time2help's picture
Time2help
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16'
Michael_Rudmin wrote:

So that actually makes me wonder how they got only 16' where the water is shallow (the cities).  No problem, it is what it is, and 16' really beats 100'. 

Not if your 10' above sea level.

thatchmo's picture
thatchmo
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Posts: 459
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A MAJOR TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE STATE OF HAWAII. HOWEVER...SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG CURRENTS MAY OCCUR ALONG ALL COASTS THAT COULD BE A HAZARD TO SWIMMERS AND BOATERS AS WELL AS TO PERSONS NEAR THE SHORE AT BEACHES AND IN HARBORS AND MARINAS. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL. THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE INITIAL WAVE IS 0311 AM HST THU 17 SEP 2015

Yeah, I'll be sleeping through this one, I think.  Thanks for your concerns....Aloha, Steve.

 

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Good to hear, Steve

Glad to hear that this Tsunami watch is a "sleeper" for our friends in Hawaii.  I  hope that's the result across the board (in NZ, etc) as well.

 

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
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Posts: 847
Actually, I ran a staistical analysis,

... and good things only happen on Thursday nights*.

Pull up the PP news this Friday, and you'll see what I mean.

* the sample size of my data is small right now, but I'll let you know if anything changes.

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
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Posts: 654
Saudi Arabia REALLY wants to help
 

Subject: : Saudi tents...
Makes you wonder why so many in Canada are  so concerned about the welfare of the Syrians when the other Arab states, with very significant means, sit idly by!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe all the bleeding hearts in Canada and the world need to see this!   One needs to ask whether this could  be a deliberate effort to spread the Islamists throughout the free world with  other long term objectives???  Crazy you say…………….Don’t be so sure, its written in the Koran.
 
 
 
But than again Many are reserved for the pilgrimage next month.
 
Even moderate Muslims are concerned when we hear on the deplorable plight of both Christians and "moderate" Muslims being persecuted.

And remember 911: Those expert flying guys were from Saudi Arabia: see 28pages.com

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
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Posts: 654
My immoral(?) Middle Eastern Fantasy

1. The USA takes over Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.  Thus, WE control the oil, and the dollar. And We remain the SOLE superpower.  Let China just try.  Elect CARLY!!!

2. Let the various branches of the Muslim world kill each other off,  there by gaining 72 virgins in The Garden of Paradise.  (But where are they now, as most have been raped by the terrorists in the name of Allah).

3. OBVIOUSLY, I am quite frustrated.  The Muslim invasion, whether planned or not, with embedded terrorists or not,  most likely will sink Europe, if not other countries.

Sorry, all you compassionate Liberals, where the hell is all this going???  As for me, I am CONVERTING and can then have 4 (FOUR) wives, who will support me, hopefully.

Denny Johnson's picture
Denny Johnson
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Posts: 348
KennethPollinger wrote: As
KennethPollinger wrote:

 As for me, I am CONVERTING and can then have 4 (FOUR) wives

Anyone who wants four wives gets the IGNORE USER button.

HughK's picture
HughK
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Posts: 761
Vote with your pocketbook, Ken.
KennethPollinger wrote:

1. The USA takes over Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.  Thus, WE control the oil, and the dollar. And We remain the SOLE superpower.  Let China just try.  Elect CARLY!!!

2. Let the various branches of the Muslim world kill each other off,  there by gaining 72 virgins in The Garden of Paradise.  (But where are they now, as most have been raped by the terrorists in the name of Allah).

3. OBVIOUSLY, I am quite frustrated.  The Muslim invasion, whether planned or not, with embedded terrorists or not,  most likely will sink Europe, if not other countries.

Sorry, all you compassionate Liberals, where the hell is all this going???  As for me, I am CONVERTING and can then have 4 (FOUR) wives, who will support me, hopefully.

Ken, in your view, how can the various branches of the Muslim world kill each other off if we are there as well?  (See map of US military bases in the Middle East.) Wait, let me guess. We're there to keep the peace?

Regarding Saudi Arabia, there is some evidence that we had taken at least partial control back when I was whippersnapper.  But, understanding that evidence would require understanding at least a little bit about Saudi history.  Hint: look at the fate of the only king of Saudi Arabia to lead an oil embargo, which he tried to use as a diplomatic tool to protest American support for Israel during the Yom Kippur war. Let us eat dates was a respectable rallying cry, but he was shut down by somebody.

Your oil consumption and standard of living might be related to the financial resources of the Middle Easterners.  Perhaps you'd like to vote with your wallet by no longer consuming any energy or goods that come from the Middle East or countries that import their oil (e.g. China).  Are you ready to give up your computer, smartphone, and plane flights in order to stop funding Muslims?

Complexity ain't for sissies. But anyone who urges us to remember 9/11 and cites an article from Infowars in the same post w/o irony may be behind on his homework.  Speaking of homework, I better go do mine...time to grade a test over mandated economic orthodoxies.

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 3936
Death Wish.

If we come with a problem without offering a solution we are just whinging. 

Therefore agonizing over the situation in the middle east without offering some solution is hot air.

Here are two solutions.  

  1. We need cheap, transportable, non polluting energy. Cold fusion promises to offer just that. Then the bases in the middle east become irrelevant. 
  2. We need lebensraum. Gerard K O'NEIL et al have laid out the business case for colonizing L4 and L5. The whole venture makes good business sense. Not to mention that either one of the le Grange points has the capacity to support many orders of magnitude more people than this poor tired planet can.

So why don't we grasp these opportunities?  Wilful blindness. We don't want to survive. 

RoseHip's picture
RoseHip
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Posts: 150
Critical Rationalist thoughts

Arthur, sounds like your biased towards life continuing. Me Too :) 

In the next 10 seconds if 50,000 events get crammed into it, or whatever your value is, at some point everything becomes irrelevant. The countdown is a departure, which I have encountered before and the more I fought it as an aspect of something that wasn't me (you describe it as willful blindness) the more uncomfortable and ugly things became. The more I accepted it as a direct expression of the actual me and the reality I was previously blind to, then I saw and experienced the most beautiful things. I lost all fear all ego I even hugged a snake out of pure joy! Metaphorically speaking of course.

Rose

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