Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 9/2 - Medicare Premiums Will Rise For Many, China Growth Targets Slashed

Wednesday, September 2, 2015, 9:39 AM

Economy

ECB balance sheet expanded in latest week

The combined balance sheet of the European Central Bank and the euro zone's 19 national central banks expanded by 9.53 billion euros ($10.72 billion) to 2.559 trillion euros in the week to Aug 28, the ECB said on Tuesday. ($1 = 0.8888 euros)

Medicare premiums will be going up for many — what it means for your taxes

More bad news: due to the joint effects of inflation and the Doc Fix’s changes to physician payment schedules, Medicare Part B premiums will also increase for individuals whose incomes are not high enough to be affected by the premium surcharges. As mentioned near the beginning of this article, the basic Part B monthly premium for 2015 is $104.90. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the basic premium will rise to $181 in 2025.

Central banks to dump $1.5 trillion FX reserves by end-2016 -Deutsche

Central banks will sell $1.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves by the end of next year as they try to counter capital outflows stemming from slowing growth in China, low oil prices and an impending rise in U.S. interest rates, Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday.

South Korea exports plunge 14.7%

South Korea has suffered its heaviest fall in exports for six years, bolstering expectations that the central bank will cut rates next week to tackle a rapidly darkening outlook.

Brazil's Economic Crisis Is Destroying the World's Busiest Helicopter Market

Flights are down by a third in Sao Paulo, where rooftop helipads dot business and residential districts. For the first time in three decades, Brazil’s fleet is poised for an annual decline. And flight schools are full of trainees who may never find a job in a commercial cockpit.

Thousands protest in Jakarta as economy slows (Indonesia)

Thousands of workers took to the streets in the capital Jakarta, demanding job security among other things, as Indonesia faces its slowest economic growth in five years.

U.S. manufacturers grow at slowest pace in two years, ISM report shows

U.S. manufacturers are struggling to sell their wares overseas amid a surge in the value of the dollar that’s made American exports more expensive, while slower global growth is cutting into demand.

Nigerian Economy Heading Towards Recession

As crude oil prices dived lower threatening to dip below $40 a barrel for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008 and notching their longest losing streak since 1986, economies around the world are catching cold.

Hit by cheap oil, Canada's economy falls into recession

Gross domestic product contracted at an annualized 0.5 percent rate in the second quarter, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday. That was better than forecast, though revisions showed the first quarter's contraction was steeper than first reported.

Brazil 2016 Budget Plan Shows Economic Weakness

Poor fiscal results are sounding alarms at credit-rating agencies. Earlier this year, Standard & Poor’s put Brazil on watch for a downgrade to junk. More recently, Moody’s cut Brazil to the bottom of investment grade, with a stable outlook. Fitch has Brazil two notches above junk, with a negative outlook.

Russian economy, shoppers hit by falling global oil prices

These grim economic figures have had a direct effect on the livelihoods of millions of Russians. In July, Olga Golodets, the deputy prime minister responsible for social affairs, stated that 23 million Russians — 16 percent of the total population — were living below the official poverty level of less than $170 a month. This is a rise of 3 million people in 12 months.

Change means some Iowans could lose their homes

"I don't know how I'm going to live. I'm not going to be able to live here. I'm going to have to move and I don't know where," said Starn. Through the USDA Rural Development Program low-income tenants could renew their rental assistance whenever it ran out, but Congress changed that for 2015.

Atlanta school district still seeking way to fund huge pension debt

Last week school board members agreed they would not ask seek voter approval this fall to fund more than $500 million of unfunded pension liability by borrowing money to bet on the stock market, board chairman Courtney English said.

Australia's current account deficit blows out by 41 per cent while net debt approaches $1 trillion

Citi economist Josh Williamson said the figures would cut a larger than expected 0.6 per cent from GDP figures which will be released on Wednesday.

Slowing Growth Exposes Chinese Banks’ Debt Debris

Nevertheless, the mounting bad debt problem will weigh on earnings. If the four banks had topped up provisions to keep the ratio of reserves to bad debts stable, their first-half pretax profits would have fallen 30 percent or more.

Goldman slashes China’s economic growth targets

Goldman analysts, led by Andrew Tilton, cut its outlook for Beijing’s gross domestic product growth in 2016 to 6.4% from 6.7% and trimmed their forecast for 2017 to 6.1% from 6.5% and reduced their 2018 outlook to 5.8% from 6.2%.

China ARRESTS journalists and traders who it says are creating market panic

The head of Man Group Plc's China business Li Yifei is reportedly among almost 200 people, including journalists, critics and traders taken in over the weekend, as part of authorities desperate efforts to get market turmoil under control. A local journalist yesterday appeared on national state television to confess to spreading information that caused "panic and disorder".

China Factory Gauge Shrinks to 3-Year Low

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index was 49.7 for August, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and down from 50 in July. Numbers below 50 indicate contraction, with small, medium and large enterprises all below that level last month. A similar gauge for France fell to 48.3 from 49.6, while Germany’s reading rose more than estimated to 53.3, according to data published by Markit Economics on Tuesday.

Slower India Growth Adds Pressure On Government, Central Bank

Gross domestic product rose 7 percent year-on-year, preliminary figures from the Central Statistics Office showed Monday. Economists had expected the growth rate to ease to 7.4 percent from 7.5 percent registered in the first three months of the year.

Low inflation in Europe puts spotlight on ECB

With interest rates at record lows, most economists believe this would mean an expansion of its money printing programme to buy chiefly government bonds.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 9/1/15

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

18 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Posts: 4060
Banks Are Playing a Game of Chess That Results in an Endless Cyc

Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Are Playing a Game of Chess That ...

Bloomberg-17 hours ago
After the European Central Bank decided to initiate an asset purchasing program, President Mario Draghi reportedly elected to unwind with a game of chess on ...

Japan Monetary Base Surges 33.3% In August

London South East-14 hours ago
CANBERA (Alliance News) - The monetary base in Japan soared 33.3% on year in August, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday, coming in at 322.926 trillion ...

China brokerages pledge 3.07 billion pounds more to buy shares - China Sec Journal

Reuters UK - ‎13 hours ago‎
SHANGHAI Nine Chinese brokerages have pledged additional funds worth over 30 billion yuan (3.07 billion pounds) to buy shares, the China Securities Journal said on Wednesday, answering fresh government calls to support a wobbly stock market.

Mexico central bank sells $200 mln after peso slumps

Reuters-17 hours ago
The central bank sold dollars at a weighted average of 16.9602 pesos per dollar. The auction is triggered when the peso slumps more than 1 percent from the ...

Economists Cut Mexico Growth Estimates

Nasdaq-22 hours ago
MEXICO CITY—Private economists surveyed in August by the Bank of Mexico joined the central bank and the Finance Ministry in lowering their economic ...
 
 

Euro strength puts pressure on Draghi as ECB meets

CNBC-8 hours ago
The euro is likely to be in focus at this week's European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting, as a new wave of currency strength threatens to undermine the ...

Investors Betting on More ECB Stimulus
In-Depth-Wall Street Journal-20 hours ago

 

Slower Growth Adds Pressure On India Govt, Central Bank

Dispatch Times-7 hours ago
NEW DELHI-India's economic expansion decelerated to 7% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, highlighting the challenges Asia's third-largest ...
 

Australia's inflation staying below central bank target

Press Examiner-8 hours ago
Australia's central bank kept its cash rate steady at a record low 2 percent on Tuesday in a widely expected decision as it waited to judge the impact of past ...
 

Australia has slowest quarterly growth in 4 years

MarketWatch-6 hours ago
He said the sharply lower result challenged the central bank's own growth ... The Australian central bank left rates unchanged at its policy-setting meeting ...

Forex reserves unwind could reverse bond supercycle

Reuters-7 hours ago
Deutsche Bank estimated on Tuesday the high water-mark of almost two decades of reserve accumulation had now been reached and central banks will by the ...

Czech central bank may keep loose monetary policy longer -vice ...

Reuters-5 hours ago
Tomsik reiterated that the central bank would keep its policy of maintaining a weak crown in place at least until the second half of 2016. The bank prevents the ...
 

Emerging central banks step in to curb currency falls

BusinessDay-1 hour ago
This poses a dilemma for central banks which until recently were relatively sanguine about currency weakness due to sluggish growth and shrinking exports.
 

Economists cut Singapore growth forecast: survey

MarketWatch-6 hours ago
Economists surveyed by the central bank expect Singapore's economy to grow 2.1% in the July-to-September quarter, compared with an expectation of 2.9% ...

Economists cut Singapore 2015 growth, inflation forecasts - MAS ...
Reuters-6 hours ago

 

Ruble Falls Second Day as Citigroup Sees Further Weakness on Oil

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
At the same time, the central bank is “unlikely” to tighten monetary policy, Citigroup said. The median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg sees the ...
 

Devaluation Lessons in Denmark Show Cost of Race to Bottom

Bloomberg-6 hours ago
“After a dramatic start to the year, the Danish central bank has succeeded in restoring calm to the currency market for the Danish krone,” Jan Størup Nielsen, ...
 

Malaysia's economic frailty is all too familiar

Financial Times-2 hours ago
That reflects the central bank's clumsy attempts to halt the ringgit's slide. Those efforts failed; the Malaysian currency has dropped to a 17-year low of 4.17 to the ...

RPT-Fitch warns of downgrade risk in Malaysia's rating outlook

Reuters-10 hours ago
On June 30, Fitch bumped the outlook on Malaysia's 'A-' sovereign credit rating ... Street Journal article on debt-laden state fund 1MDB stating that almost $700 ...

South Korea's Exports Fall Most Since 2009 as China Slows

Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide-16 hours ago
Barclays Plc and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. economists changed their calls for the Bank of Korea's policy after the data, predicting the central ...

 

Won Weakens as South Korea Surplus Shrinks, Stock Outflows Mount

Bloomberg-12 hours ago
The excess in the broadest measure of trade was $10.1 billion in July, down from June's record, the Bank of Korea reported Wednesday. The figures come after ...

Brazil poised to end rate hikes as economy sinks

Reuters-9 hours ago
Fears that more rate hikes could wreck an economy heading into its worst ... weaker Chinese economy could fuel inflation already hovering near 12-year highs.

Record Philippine Equity Outflows to Continue, Coconut Bank Says

Bloomberg-8 hours ago
Overseas investors withdrew a net $1.24 billion from Philippine shares from April through August, a record for a five-month period, according to data going back ...

Canada's Era of Cheap Corporate Debt Ending With Global Turmoil

Bloomberg-1 hour ago
Yet the widening yield gap over federal debt shows it's getting more costly to entice ... As global markets convulsed, companies sold C$1.4 billion in six bond ...
 

World faces third deflationary wave

EM crisis means further fall in potential global output is unavoidable

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
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Posts: 3936
A definition please.

When they say that the European balance sheet is "expanded", what do they mean? That they have printed more paper?  Taken on more debt? Who from? Who is the guy with all the cash?. 

I've got it.  This is an asylum.

EDIT: I see from Saxes posts that the inmates are still rabbiting on about slowing Growth. 

Thanks Sax.

DennisC's picture
DennisC
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Posts: 271
Game of Cards, Anyone?

 

DennisC's picture
DennisC
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Posts: 271
Just in Case Your're Wondering (or not)

I'm not losing it (but that's just from my perspective).  My post was supposed to include a still photo from One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest where Jack N. is getting reading to deal some cards to the rest of his compadres.

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Bankers Slave
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Posts: 519
thc0655's picture
thc0655
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Posts: 1512
Maybe Bradford is just the tyrant we need

Wow, Bankers Slave!  That Bradford dude is sure "out there."  But maybe he's just the tyrant we need when all of this collapses around us.  So maybe he's just early.  Maybe the US presidential election for 2020 would  be about right for him to rise up from the ashes and lead us to the promised land (if we're still having elections).  I remember an Austrian corporal who appeared a little early too and was soundly rejected.  He didn't get enough traction to become popular and get elected until desperation struck the populace about 10 years later.

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sand_puppy
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They Caught the Guy Who Crashed the Chinese Stock Market

wink

China Arrests Stock Market Scapegoat

[T]hey announce the man who was responsible for the dramatic crash in the Shanghai Composite: Wang Xiaolu.

Never heard of him?  He's a journalist for Caijing, a financial newspaper in China, and he was arrested last week for writing a “fake report” on the Chinese stock market in July that ... “caused panics and disorder at [sic] stock market, seriously undermined the market confidence, and inflicted huge losses on the country and investors.”

 

pat the rat's picture
pat the rat
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Posts: 99
no growth

This may become one hell of a depression!!!

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
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Posts: 3936
Bradford.

The mind tumbles over ideas on the Bradford page.

  • The more insane you are the better you fit in
  • He is not King material. His allegences seem to be with his brother aristocrats.
  • A real King like Adolph or Napoleon, would be appealing to the pitchfork wielding masses. Hence the fact that their humble beginnings were an asset to them.
  • The aristocrats have woken in fright. But we already know that. They have bought many tons of dum-dum rounds to show they mean business. Probably not a good idea. 
  • The artificial balance of powers that your founding fathers had such high hopes for have been proven to be insubstantial.
  • The pitchfork masses are aligned with your interests. (No,  best beloved. You are not made of finer material).
  • The issue is,  can you make it clear to your King ( or whatever honorific you choose) that he will get the Royal treatment if you are displeased with his performance?
  • Any protestations that this arrangement is barbaric and someone is likely to get hurt need to be examined for motive. Just who is likely to get hurt? Your very naughty aristocrats of cause.
  • The aristocrats have been very successful in duping the masses into slaughtering their Kings, hence the fates of Napoleon and Adolph. 

On reflection the Magna Carta was a catastrophe.  It emasculated the peasants ace card, their King. Of cause the Aristocracy were overjoyed and have been praising their handiwork for some time now.

 

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
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Posts: 4060
Emanuel to seek $500 million property tax hike (Chicago)

Chicago Faces Reckoning as Deficit Pressure Builds for Emanuel

Bloomberg-9 hours ago
The mounting debt led Moody's Investors Service to lower its rating on ... the form of pension obligations,” said Peter Hayes, the head of municipal bonds for New ...

Emanuel to seek $500 million property tax hike

Chicago Sun-Times-57 minutes ago
The $500 million property tax increase will cost the owner of a home valued at ... of a 7 percent pay cut and the state reimburses CPS for “normal” pension costs.

Illinois eyes bond sale this year despite fiscal problems

STLtoday.com-5 hours ago
Rulings by the Illinois Supreme Court have hamstrung efforts to curb pension costs. As a result, Illinois' credit ratings could fall into the low-investment-grade ...

CalSTRS considers shifting part of portfolio into conservative ...

Sacramento Bee-5 hours ago
The state's other big public pension fund, CalPERS, has been undertaking a similar study since last summer. At CalSTRS, strategies being contemplated include ...

Pension fund CalSTRS weighs shift to safety
In-Depth-Los Angeles Times-1 hour ago

Moody's: California's state and local pension costs rising in face of ...

Moodys.com (press release) (subscription)-47 minutes ago
Two of the largest US public pension systems, the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS, Aa2 stable) and the California State Teachers ...
 

MF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook

Nasdaq-2 hours ago
... Tuesday said the fund plans to downgrade its global growth forecast again, ... Those factors have fueled equity, currency and bond market selloffs world-wide.
 

Brazil prepares to make a grave fiscal error

The Economist - ‎10 hours ago‎
Meanwhile rising inflation, allied to a free-falling currency, means investors demand higher returns on government debt. The result is a budgetary black hole. This year a planned primary surplus (ie, before interest payments) has evaporated. Once ...

Brazil's factory output tumbles in July

Reuters-13 hours ago
Industrial production in Brazil fell 1.5 percent in July from June, the sharpest rate of ... of the year to safeguard the investment-grade rating for the country's debt.

Brazilian Real Leads Losses as Output Falls More Than Forecast

Bloomberg-7 hours ago
Brazil's real led losses among major currencies and fell to a new 12-year low as ... the state-controlled oil producer with $55 billion of overseas bonds, is among ...

Abe Is Bringing Social Security Numbers to Japan in Effort to Boost ...

Bloomberg-2 hours ago
... to Japan, seeking to boost tax revenue and enforce payments into the nation's strained social security system to curb the world's heaviest debt burden.
488x-1.png

Moody's raises red flag over China's public finances

CNBC - ‎18 hours ago‎
Moody's Investors Service notes that China's regional and local government (RLG) debt pile grew by more than one-third between June 2013 and end-2014, citing official data. In the 18 months between June 2013 and end-2014, RLG debt rose to 24 trillion ...

Councilman predicts Lincoln pension fund gap will swell to $100 ...

Watchdog.org-17 hours ago
Last year, the pension fund was underfunded by $88 million, and as of July 1, earnings were flat, Camp said, even before the latest China-induced turmoil in the ...

Preckwinkle flip-flop on sales tax fails to satisfy Wall Street

Chicago Sun-Times-6 hours ago
... the county's action to identify revenues to address growing pension contributions, including our plan to amortize the unfunded liability. We remain committed to ...

Prescott faces layoffs, budget cuts as pension costs rise

Arizona Daily Star-8 hours ago
The Daily Courier reports (http://bit.ly/1UrViV5) voters nixed a .55-percent sales tax increase last week that would have gone toward unfunded liabilities totaling ...

DennisC's picture
DennisC
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Posts: 271
Wishful Thinking?

Who are going to be the bagholders when it all falls apart?  Debt jubilee, debt party; we may not be lucky enough get to that point regardless of the academic and economic pros and cons.  When the transfer payments stop, and the magical "ones and zeros" stop appearing in transferees' checking accounts or onto the e-whatever cards (as in, there is no more money in the state treasury, sorry), hilarity will ensue.  Will you accept an IOU (while we get the presses warmed up or send out the tax bills)?  Buy a lottery ticket lately?  Hint: don't go for the annuity option if you're lucky enough to win.

re: The APS article (my original thought provoking moment)

 

DennisC's picture
DennisC
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Posts: 271
Says it All...

...IMO.

The artificial balance of powers that your founding fathers had such high hopes for have been proven to be insubstantial.

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Royal declarations & a thin black line
Arthur Robey wrote:

The mind tumbles over ideas on the Bradford page.

  • The more insane you are the better you fit in
  • He is not King material. His allegences seem to be with his brother aristocrats.
  • A real King like Adolph or Napoleon, would be appealing to the pitchfork wielding masses. Hence the fact that their humble beginnings were an asset to them.
  • The aristocrats have been very successful in duping the masses into slaughtering their Kings, hence the fates of Napoleon and Adolph. 

On reflection the Magna Carta was a catastrophe.  It emasculated the peasants ace card, their King. Of cause the Aristocracy were overjoyed and have been praising their handiwork for some time now.

Oy vey, Arthur.

I'm not clear if you think that you're that you're telling us about the actual historical origins of monarchy or if you are simply sharing your opinion about what you think the best government should be.  Can you clarify? Your posts on this are full of declarative statements and devoid of evidence.  While you may believe that dictatorship is the best form of government, just proclaiming this is about as effective as a dictator who tries to improve his economy by printing money.  Fiat isn't going to cut the mustard.

It is good to know that you hold up Hitler and Napoleon as ideals, as it helps one to understand the consequences of your ruminations.  Both of those leaders were not killed by aristocrats, by the way.  They both were, in effect, deposed by Russians and British (+Americans in the case of Hitler) after they tried to take over all of Europe.  Invading Russia seems to have been the key mistake in both cases.  In other words, far from being deposed by aristocrats, their unlimited domestic power gave them enough rope to hang themselves.

Kings serve the common people?  Sometimes maybe, but again Hitler and Napoleon are poor examples. Minard's map (click on the map for the source) shows Napoleon's attempt to conquer Russia, and also shows how good this "king" was for his people.  Only Stockholm Syndrome, or some other delusion, would lead one to think that it was in the interests of the people when Bonaparte took more than 400,000 of his citizens into a foreign country (see the fat beige line) where all but 10,000 of them froze to to death (see the thin black line), were shot, drowned in icy river crossings, or died of disease

Also, hatin' the Magna Carta isn't cool. :)  

Your outlook on kings fosters Mugabe types too. But, of course, anyone who wants dictators really only wants THEIR dictator, not considering that the same philosophy can be used to justify the dictatorship of others that they don't like.

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Arthur Robey
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Oy Vey Hugh,

You seem to be reading my ideals into my posts and attacking my shadow. 

We can refer to Maslow loosely for my ideals. Starting from the base, naturally. 

This is how us apes organize our social strata.  At the top we have the alpha male. Beneath them we have other ambitious males who want to be the alpha. These are the alpha male's greatest threat. That much should be clear. 

Who do you think the Alpha male allies himself with? And who is the omega males' greatest ally?

Nothing has changed.  We are still those apes.

Where in the above declarative statements lurks an Ideal?

It is all very simple really.

I hope you enjoyed the biology lesson as much as I enjoyed your history lesson. 

 

 

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Arthur Robey
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Baboons and pyramids.

Pointing out that some baboon alpha male miscalculated and his troop was wiped out means nothing Hugh. That's how evolution works.  You pays your money and you takes your chances. 

I'll help you out though.

Consider Genghis  Khan and the boys. Their social heirarchy  was pyramidal, similar our feudal system or the strict social structure of the aBantu, where every person is someone else's property to dispose of as they see fit. 

It was the labour shortages after the Black Death that freed us from the feudal system and in it's absence we have reverted back to our default condition,  the one described above. That of the baboon troop. 

There is one other social arrangement that I can think of, and that is the wondering hunter gatherer family like the San, where everyone is related to everyone else by blood. I think that is how the citizens of the USA see themselves.

But the facts seem to support a stratification into the baboon model. And so I pointed this out and it has been reluctantly received.

We here in Australia cannot tolerate our famous egalitarianism. We are so envious of the Indian caste system that we are prepared to import it with joyous shouts of glee.  I may as well kick all the Hornets nests. 

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Arthur Robey
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dup.

.

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thebrewer
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thebrewer's picture
thebrewer
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I knew it had to be something

I knew it had to be something like that!wink

sand_puppy wrote:

wink

China Arrests Stock Market Scapegoat

[T]hey announce the man who was responsible for the dramatic crash in the Shanghai Composite: Wang Xiaolu.

Never heard of him?  He's a journalist for Caijing, a financial newspaper in China, and he was arrested last week for writing a “fake report” on the Chinese stock market in July that ... “caused panics and disorder at [sic] stock market, seriously undermined the market confidence, and inflicted huge losses on the country and investors.”

 

 

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