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Daily Digest 8/19 - Mexico Central Bank Sells $200M, Yuan Slips Further

Wednesday, August 19, 2015, 9:25 AM


China Turned to Risky Devaluation as Export Machine Stalled

The stock market had stumbled after a yearlong boom. Money was flooding out of the country. Most ominously, China’s export machine had stalled, prompting labor strikes. In a little-noted advisory to government agencies, the cabinet said it was essential to fix the export problem, and the currency had to be part of the solution.

Falling ruble leaves Russian carmakers with nowhere to turn

A steep decline in the rouble has hammered Russian carmakers by driving up the cost of the foreign parts they rely on, forcing them to raise prices at home and making them uncompetitive abroad.

Minister says economic sabotage being used to attack Malaysia

Western media consultants are being paid to spin stories about alleged corrupt acts committed by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and that Malaysia's economy was on the verge of bankruptcy."This is not only mischievous but treasonous as well. Economic sabotage, especially one that is engineered and financed by Malaysians, is without a doubt an act of treason," Salleh wrote in his blog sskeruak.blogspot.com today.

Putin Revives Soviet Deal of Pretend-Work-and-Pay to Hide Crisis

Real disposable incomes fell 6 percent in July from a year earlier, retail sales are down 9.8 percent and wages adjusted for inflation have plunged 7.5 percent, the polls show -- all indicating faster contractions than in June.

Saudi Stocks Sink Into Death Cross as IMF Sees Growth Slowing

Growth in OPEC’s biggest exporter will slow to 2.8 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2016 after oil prices slumped, the Washington-based IMF said in a statement on Monday. If spending isn’t curbed, its fiscal deficit would be “very large” this year and over the medium term, it added.

Slump in Indian corporate earnings set to continue

This prolonged slump would make it tougher for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to hold to its plan to accelerate economic growth to over 8 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2016, from 7.3 percent the previous year.

Brazil Stocks Extend Six-Day Slide as Gol Sinks on Economic Woes

“Moody’s isn’t the only one predicting that growth will be slow to rebound,” said Ari Santos, a trader at Sao Paulo-based brokerage H.Commcor. “Looking forward, we’ll have a stagnant economy, with no growth and no outlook to grow.”

Brazil’s Political Crisis Puts the Entire Economy on Hold

In the midst of its deepest economic and political crisis in a generation, Brazil is contending with a business climate so punishing that major projects across numerous sectors are being frozen or shrunk, while small businesses slash prices and shift focus.

Private sector UK pension deficit reaches 900 billion

The combined deficit of private sector DB schemes in the UK now stands at around £900 billion, up from £250 billion since the start of the millennium, despite companies pouring in £500 billion towards pension saving over that time. According to Hymans Robertson, the stark figures highlight that for too long pension schemes have been taking too much risks.

Abe Aide Says Japan Needs 3.5-Trillion Yen Economic Package

Japan needs an economic injection of as much as 3.5 trillion yen ($28 billion) to shore up consumption and stave off a further economic contraction, said Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. “Households feel their income has been reduced,” Honda, 60, said in an interview Tuesday at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo. “The negative legacy of the previous tax hike is waning, but increases in wages are lower than expected and prices of food and daily commodities are rising.”

Russia May Halt Monetary Easing If Oil at $40, Kremlin Aide Says

The rout on commodities markets may force the central bank to change tack if it reignites inflation and further destabilizes the ruble, which is trading at a six-month low. Policy makers led by Elvira Nabiullina have lowered their benchmark interest rate by a cumulative six percentage points to 11 percent in five steps this year after an emergency increase in December.

China's central bank put $93 bln into development banks in July

China's central bank stepped up support for the cooling economy last month by injecting $93 billion into two leading development banks to strengthen their capital bases and increase financing to critical sectors. The People's Bank of China said it pumped $48 billion into China Development Bank and $45 billion into the Export-Import Bank of China last month.

Mexico central bank sells $200 mln in currency auction

The central bank of Mexico sold $200 million on Tuesday at an average price of 16.4268 pesos per dollar, the bank said, part of an auction program to boost foreign exchange liquidity following a slump in the peso.

Chile central bank says external risks could increase peso volatility

The Chilean peso has weakened sharply in recent days to a 12-year low against the U.S. dollar, as fears over the Chinese economy led the price of copper, Chile's key export, down.

Singapore bankers rattled by Asian moves to chase undeclared wealth

Singapore-based wealth managers, already under pressure from a global move towards tax information sharing, face a more immediate threat as Asian countries including Indonesia and India look to chase undeclared money in the low-tax city state. A global crackdown on tax evasion launched during the 2008 financial crisis has already forced Switzerland and other European offshore hubs to surrender their prized bank secrecy.

Indonesia Central Bank to Change Dollar Purchase Rules

Observers suspect the central bank sold dollars last week as the rupiah fell to lows unseen since the 1998 Asian financial crisis after China devalued the yuan and amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate increase next month.

China's yuan slips even as central bank sets firmer midpoint

China's yuan fell against the dollar on Tuesday despite a slightly stronger midpoint set by the central bank as traders expect the currency to be under further downward pressure amid a struggling economy.

Chinese Stock Indexes Fall Over 6% Despite Central Bank's Cash Injection

“Investors ran for the exit when the government failed to step in to support the market,” Steve Wang, chief China economist at Hong Kong’s Reorient Financial Markets, told Bloomberg. The yuan continued its decline against the dollar Tuesday. Before markets opened Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) -- the country’s central bank -- set the midpoint rate at 6.3966 per dollar, firmer than the previous fix of 6.3969. However, later in the day, the currency fell to 6.4011 per dollar.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 8/18/15

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."


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Greenspan warns about bond-market bubble

"In two television interviews in recent days, Greenspan said interest rates could shoot higher and derail the economy when the bubble bursts.

The former Fed chairman says the current situation in the bond market is comparable to what happens in the stock market during an equity bubble.

Noting that stock-market bubbles are typically characterized by extreme price-to-earnings ratios, Greenspan said extremely low yields are telling a similar tale for bonds.

“If you turn the bond market around and you look at the price of bonds relative to the interest received by those bonds, that looks very much like the usual spread which would concern us if it were equities, and we should be concerned,” Greenspan said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

In an earlier interview with Bloomberg Television, Greenspan said it was appropriate to be very afraid of the bubble. He said the bond market price-to-earnings ratio was at an “extraordinary unstable position.”"



China shares up after central bank intervenes

BBC News-7 hours ago
Chinese shares picked up at the end of trading after the central bank stepped in to calm investors. Chinese shares at one point lost 5%, adding to the 6% fall on ...


PBOC Opens MLF Liquidity Tap Again as Yuan Defense Drains Funds

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
China's central bank has opened its liquidity tap again, providing 110 billion yuan ($17 billion) to 14 lenders on Wednesday. The six-month Medium-term ...

China stocks reverse losses after c.bank extends more loans

Reuters-7 hours ago

The move by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) helped offset fears that the ... The market was also encouraged by news that the central bank would offer .

Chinese Stocks Go On Wild Ride as Economic Gloom Deepens

NDTV - ‎4 hours ago‎
Highlighting growing anxiety, money-market interest rates ticked higher on Wednesday, despite the fresh fund injections from the central bank. The weighted average benchmark seven-day repurchase agreement rate rose four basis points to 2.53 per cent.

Japan trade deficit widens as export growth slows

The Olympian - ‎13 hours ago‎
Japan's trade deficit widened to its largest level in five months in July, as exports slowed thanks to faltering demand in China and other key markets, and imports fell by less than forecast. The 268.1 billion yen ($2.2 billion) deficit reported ...

Japan exports stumble on China slowdown

Yahoo News-11 hours ago

Japan's monthly deficit came in at 268.05 billion yen ($2.15 billion), well below ... brought in to pay down a massive national debt, which saw consumers rush to ..

Central Banks Face No Shortage of Ideas

Wall Street Journal-2 hours ago
As a subscriber to our Central Banking newsletter, you are invited to try our new beta product, WSJ Pro. For continuing coverage of central banking news and ...

UPDATE 1-Brazil economic activity falls more than expected in June

Reuters - ‎1 hour ago‎
A weekly central bank survey of economists published on Monday showed expectations that the Brazilian economy would shrink by 0.15 percent next year, following a sharp contraction of more than 2 percent forecast for this year. Brazil has not faced two ...

Turkey Explosions Batter Lira as Inaction on Rates Exposes Risks

Bloomberg-32 minutes ago
The lira weakened to a record for a fifth day following two violent attacks in Turkey, extending a selloff after the central bank signaled it wasn't ready to step up ...

Central Bank dismisses rumours of bank run

Myanmar Times-13 hours ago
Rumours of a run on several major banks are untrue, said the Central Bank of Myanmar in a television statement late on August 17. Rumours had spread on ...

Yuan Ripples Reach Kazakhstan as Tenge Tumbles Most Since 2014

Bloomberg-2 hours ago
The tenge retreated 4.5 percent to 197.28 per dollar by 5:10 p.m. in Almaty. That was the steepest retreat since the central bank, which uses its foreign-currency ...
  1. Cash-Strapped Venezuela May Sell Off Gold, Citigroup Says

    Bloomberg-11 hours ago
    Calls by Bloomberg to Venezuela's central bank and the media office at the finance ministry outside normal office hours weren't answered. Gold retreated to a ...

    Emerging market outflows rocket towards $1 trillion

    Citywire.co.uk - ‎3 hours ago‎
    The data confirms the startling decline in emerging markets, which had seen $2 trillion of capital inflows in the years following the crisis, before the marked decline in sentiment over the last 13 months. NN Investment Partners senior emerging market ...

    Death Cross Looms in Hong Kong Stocks as Rout Seen Getting Worse

    Bloomberg-10 hours ago
    The Hang Seng Index tumbled 18 percent from its seven-year high on April 28 through Tuesday's close amid a $4 trillion rout in mainland Chinese markets.

    Rajan Again Urged to Cut as Jaitley Says India Prices Curbed

    Bloomberg-11 hours ago
    India's Finance Minister Arun Jaitley urged the nation's central bank to cut the benchmark interest rate to help jumpstart the $2 trillion economy, citing inflation ...

Escaping Najib's Malaysia, Investors Flee Currency, Stock Market

Bloomberg-15 hours ago
3 said Najib had received 2.6 billion ringgit ($634 million) from donors and not state investment company 1Malaysia Development Bhd. The conclusion failed to ...

Investors flee Malaysia's currency, stock market
Malay Mail Online-8 hours ago



Vietnam devalues dong to protect exports, offset China's yuan action

The Straits Times-11 hours ago
Export-reliant Vietnam posted a trade deficit of US$3.53 billion (S$4.96 billion) in January-July, compared with a US$1.59 billion surplus in the year-ago period.
  1. Bond Market Has a Message for Companies Seeking M&A Debt ...

    Bloomberg-17 hours ago
    Bond investors helping to underpin a record year for mergers and acquisitions have a message for borrowers with plans to fund another $95 billion in deals: ...
    1. Singapore's Jurong Aromatics Said in Debt Talks After Oil Plunge

      Bloomberg-9 hours ago
      Jurong Aromatics had $1.53 billion in liabilities and $68.7 million of ... are owed about $500 million -- to suggest converting some debt into equity, some of the ...

      S&P says Alaska's top credit rating at risk due to structural deficit

      Reuters-18 hours ago
      ... appropriation-backed debt, but it warned that the state could be downgraded. ... $2.7 billion and $3.1 billion, depending on the price of oil, according to S&P.

Aging Water Pipelines Sicken Residents in Flint, Michigan

Triple Pundit (registration) (blog)-7 hours ago
... per billion — the EPA suggests keeping lead content under 15 parts per billion. ... could cost more than $1 trillion — roughly 5 percent of the nation's debt.


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Solution Space

To use the word ‘solution’ is perhaps misleading, since it could be said to imply that circumstances exist which could allow us to continue business as usual, and this is not, in fact, the case.

We are heading for a profoundly humbling experience, to put it mildly. Technological man is not the demigod he supposed himself to be, but merely the beneficiary of a fortuitous energy bonanza which temporarily allowed him to turn dreams into reality. We would do well, if we could summon up sufficient humility in advance, to learn from the simple and elegant technologies of the distant past, which we have largely discarded or forgotten.


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Chinese slowdown sends ripples across Asian banks

Reuters-10 hours ago

"Asian lenders are seeing their loan books rapidly deteriorate across the region as China's slowing economy dampens trade and hurts companies that had borrowed heavily from the banks.

Among 23 major non-Chinese lenders, all but 6 reported an increase in soured loans in the first half of 2015, the strongest indication yet of how China's slowdown is infecting banks' balance sheets, data compiled by SNL Financial for Reuters show.

That trend accelerated in the second quarter, the banks' data show. "


Bangkok bombing exposes frailty of Thai economy

CNBC-16 hours ago
The explosion in Thailand's capital threatens to derail an economy already suffering from a series of vulnerabilities, economists warn. Central Bangkok ...
  1. Russia's Troubled Economy Shows No Signs of Recovery

    Nasdaq-2 hours ago
    MOSCOW--Russia's troubled economy showed no signs of recovery in July as falling oil prices continued to hurt the commodity-dependent country, data ...

    China's Tianjin Blasts Echo Across Economy

    NDTV-7 hours ago
    "Economic activity in Tianjin has yet to return to normal several days after the devastating explosions there," Capital Economics, a research firm, said in a note to ...

    South African rand at risk from weak economy, China concerns

    Reuters Africa-8 hours ago
    JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's rand steadied against the dollar on Wednesday after touching fresh 14-year lows the previous day, but traders ...

    Surging student loan debts a concern for slowing South Korean ...

    Channel News Asia-10 hours ago
    Outstanding student loan debts hit a record US$10 billion in the first half of 2015, prompting concern that it could further strain the ailing South Korean economy.

Taiwan's Stocks Head for Bear Market After Falling 20% From Peak

Bloomberg-10 hours ago
Taiwan's stocks slumped to the lowest level since August 2013 amid concern the island's slowing economy and China's currency devaluation will hurt corporate ...

Brazil's State-Run Banks Try to Boost Sagging Industries

Wall Street Journal-4 hours ago
SÃO PAULO—Brazil's government will use state-run banks to provide oxygen for certain local industries that are suffering from the country's poor economy.
  1. Korea's economy in second quarter grew slower than countries in ...

    Arirang News-13 hours ago
    Slow growth is not an issue unique to Korea as the world economy, -- be it ... much, with experts saying Korea's economy will slow down alongside China.

    Grad-School Loan Binge Fans Debt Worries

    Wall Street Journal-13 hours ago
    Now the Florida resident is among an expanding breed of American borrower: those who owe at least $100,000 in student debt but have no expectation of ...

    As Canada's Oil Debt Soars to Record, an Industry Shakeout Looms

    Bloomberg-3 hours ago
    Canadian energy companies' debt loads are the heaviest in at least a decade, boosting concern that some won't survive the collapse in crude prices.

    As Puerto Rico's Debt Deepens, More Residents Leave

    WBUR-22 hours ago
    Puerto Rico's debt is more than triple what Detroit's was two years ago when that city was forced into bankruptcy. The island territory, however, doesn't have that ...


Two words for the global economy:

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For what it is worth...


Nazi gold train 'found in Poland'

Two people in Poland say they may have found a Nazi train rumoured to be full of gold, gems and guns that disappeared in World War Two, Polish media say.


Another site, Wiadomosci Walbrzyskie, said (in Polish) the train was 150m long and may have up to 300 tonnes of gold on board.

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Illinois Budget Logjam Spurs Downgrades as Lawmakers Debate Pie


Illinois Budget Logjam Spurs Downgrades as Lawmakers Debate Pie

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
... oversees $116 billion, including some Illinois holdings, as head of municipal securities at ... That followed similar cuts since May by Fitch Ratings and Moody's.

Opinion: Bankruptcy is the only way out   (Chicago)

Chicago Sun-Times-21 hours ago
More than 600 local governments and municipal corporations have filed for protection from creditors under Chapter 9 of the U. S. Bankruptcy Code. Detroit is ...

NJ's credit rating may fall more if court rules against state in lawsuit ...

NorthJersey.com-19 hours ago
A lawsuit challenging one of Governor Christie's pension-reform laws is ... The state pension funds face $40 billion in unfunded liabilities, according to state ...

Ever Since The Great Recession, Zombie Houses Have Haunted ...

NPR-20 hours ago
The U.S. housing market has improved since the end of the Great Recession, but some parts of the country are still haunted by these zombie houses — homes ...

Puerto Rico's Bankruptcy is a Preview of Things to Come Stateside

Town Hall-1 hour ago
Puerto Rico's Bankruptcy is a Preview of Things to Come Stateside ... but the future of most of the territory's municipal debt continues to be up in the air.
Bear Market in Sight as Ibovespa Leads World Losses on Economy
Bloomberg-2 hours ago
Traders have been pulling money from Brazil on concern President Dilma Rousseff will struggle to revive the economy, curb inflation and narrow the budget ...

Eurozone economy sluggish in second quarter

Bulletin Leader-19 hours ago
Economic growth in Germany accelerated slightly in the second quarter but hit the brakes in France, underscoring the big divergences within the eurozone that ...

Rousseff Revives Policies That Pushed Brazil to Edge of Junk

Bloomberg-1 hour ago
Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff is reviving policies that helped push the country's debt rating to the brink of junk status as a political crisis and a recession ...
  1. Brazil Set for Longest Bond Drought on Record Amid Credit Woes

    Bloomberg-3 hours ago
    Brazil bonds tumbled with the real this year as President Dilma Rousseff grapples with an anemic economy amid impeachment talks and a widening graft probe ...
  1. Brazil corporate defaults rise at fastest pace since 2012

    Reuters-1 hour ago
    Economists expect Brazil's economy, the largest in Latin America, to shrink this year and next, the first back-to-back annual contraction since the 1930s.
    1. Brazil online retail likely shrinking this quarter -survey

      Reuters-4 minutes ago
      The sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real, which has declined 24 percent against ... Consumer inflation is running near 10 percent annually in Brazil, and an ...

Latin America's Boom-Year Promises Unravel in Stock-Market Bust

Bloomberg-4 hours ago
Corruption scandals from Brazil to Mexico, a collapse in commodities and a plunge in Latin ... The world's highest inflation rate has left Venezuela struggling with ...

Asian investors start to desert London property market

USA TODAY-7 hours ago
... haven for foreign investors looking for decent returns in housing in the wake of the economic crisis was coming to an end and London property now represents ...
  1. China to Give Tax Breaks to More Small Companies as Growth Slows

    Bloomberg-5 hours ago
    China will provide tax breaks to more small companies as policy makers seek ways to spur domestic consumption and boost an economy growing at the slowest ...

    Global Tourism Growth Slows In June, Concerns About Weakness in ...

    Travel Trends-18 hours ago
    Global tourism growth more than halved during June and further declines may be on the way, according to the latest edition of IATA's premium traffic monitor.

Russia Struggles at Debt Sale as Ruble Sinks on Crude Under $48

Bloomberg-1 hour ago
Russia fell short of its bond auction target for a third week as contagion from China's yuan devaluation spread through emerging markets. The ruble fell as Brent ...

Emerging-Market Losses Spread as Vietnam to Kazakhstan Devalue

Bloomberg-7 hours ago
“Investors are getting the ultimate scare with uncertainties over China, weakening ... and is avoiding companies with high foreign-currency denominated debt.

Ghosts of 1997 financial crisis return to haunt Asia

CNNMoney-15 hours ago
Regulation has improved since 1997, and debt levels have dropped. ... China's economy -- which creates huge amounts of demand in Asia -- has stumbled in ...
  1. Veterans Face Growing Wait Lists for Health Care as VA Funding ...

    Law Firm Newswire (press release)-8 hours ago
    According to the VA, health care costs have risen due to increased demand by veterans for new hepatitis C treatments and prosthetic limbs, as well as programs ...


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Saxplayer Went Nuts Today!

I started to sweat and panic...

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Bees and neonics

What Is Killing America's Bees and What Does It Mean for Us?


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Mercenary Forces Under Private and Corporate Control

Catherine Austin Fitts reviews a new book The Modern Mercenary, written by, a mercenary, Sean McFate

“The unraveling of the state’s monopoly of force has begun, not over centuries but over decades."  ~ Sean McFate

The Peace of Westphilia in 1648 is credited with establishing principles of international law operating through a systems of sovereign states. One of the ramifications of that principle was that sovereign states would maintain a monopoly on force. Thus ended the Middle Ages.

Sean McFate argues that:

    “The reappearance of private armies is a harbinger of a wider trend in international relations: the emergence of neomedievalism….The erosion of the taboo against mercenarism heralds a shift in this world order, from the state-centric Westphilian system back to the status quote ante of the Middle Ages. The medieval system was not dominated by states but was polycentric in nature, with authority diluted and shared among state and non-state actors alike. ...  Kings, popes, princes, city-states, rich families and so on – commonly employed mercenaries to settle disputes in contract warfare.”

McFate is not just another talking head. He is currently a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Associate Professor at the National Defense University and also teaches national security policy at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Before joining academia, he lived and worked in Africa for DynCorp International where he helped build an army for Liberia after serving as an officer and paratrooper in the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division.

The United States’ sponsorship of private intelligence, security services and armies has blossomed with extraordinary expenditures for those services in the Middle East. This has created a significant private capacity to bring force to bear and to wage war. McFate argues that, as a result, ... significant trends are now underway:

    As the conflict markets in the Middle East dry up, the private military industry is going global in search of new opportunities
    The private military industry is also going domestic: as the US has outsourced force, local force capacity is seeded and trained and it is turning entreprenurial

While the next round of military automation is still young, McFate points out that drones, robotics and cyber-hacking will place significant capacity [to wage warfare] into private hands.



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Final comments from McAlvany for this week

(Right near the end...at 41 minutes)


"We are in an 18 to 24 month window where there is likely to be real hell to pay in the financial markets.

This represents the final setup in the largest bubble mankind has ever witnessed. We're talking about the government finance bubble"


The global debt bubble?

Cayman Compass-6 hours ago
The same applies to corporate and banking debts.

Based on the data compiled by the Elliottwave, in 2006-2007 only 28 percent of global debt issued into the markets came with B-level ratings and lower. Since 2013 this proportion stands at 71 percent. Standards are slipping and volatility is growing.



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Private military forces

I guess we're going back to the Middle Ages in more ways than one!  Private military and security forces will make a lot of sense once government budgets are reduced 90%.  There will be a lot of geography beyond their reach, so those with resources (something to lose and therefore something to protect) will be motivated to set up their own private forces.  Of course, in those same situations individuals and families will be largely responsible for their own safety from all manner of villains in a "Wild West" kind of set up.  There will be very little help coming from the government.  Sounds much scarier than the average American or European is willing to consider their future might hold.

I see entrepreneurial opportunities for those with military and law enforcement skills and knowledge.

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And dew points in the upper sixties and low seventies didn't help.  I'm luvin' it.  Keep 'em comming Sax!

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You know, all of these "problems" would be solved if we just normalized interest rates.

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9% in NC

I'd give 'em full support.

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