Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 2/10 - Aging America Headed For Disasters, Glacier Sets Speed Record

Monday, February 10, 2014, 1:13 PM

Economy

Venice is safe, but a dearth of demand has Europe sinking (awoll)

The Italian economy, in common with most members of the eurozone, has been, and is, suffering from the double blow of the financial crisis itself and the faulty structure of the arrangements for what used to be called "the single currency". And this is an economy which, for all its intrinsic faults – known technically as structural or labour market rigidities – somehow or other managed to get by quite well for years, and was admired for the ingenuity of its small and medium-sized firms.

Propane shortage devastates Dakotas reservation (Amanda)

Preliminary autopsy results released Friday did not identify a cause of death, but Sioux County Sheriff Frank Landeis said he believes Dogskin froze to death because it was as cold inside the home as out that morning — 1 degree below zero. Dogskin's family said she had taken off some of her clothes, a symptom of the altered state of mind of someone in the advanced stages of hypothermia. Toxicology reports were expected in six to eight weeks.

As the Dogskin family prepared for a memorial service, authorities investigated why there was no propane to heat the home. Her mother said Dogskin, who was known for helping others, likely felt a sense of responsibility to stay in the freezing home and keep watch over it for her friend.

6 Remarkable Gold Charts This Week (Taki T.)

The lack of downside follow-through, after the highest volume bar 7 trading ranges ago, has been an anchor for the current rally, of sorts. The caveat as to which way price will move from here is the trend, which favors lower price behavior until there is an indication of change. Right now, such an indication is absent. Of minor concern is the location of the closes for the 3 bars at the end, tending toward the lower range of each bar. The offset is the fact that despite apparent weakness, price did not move lower. If gold trades higher next week, the daily trend will turn up, and confirmation will come from a lower swing high on the next correction.

Economy and Crime Spur New Puerto Rican Exodus (Thomas C.)

Puerto Rico’s slow-motion economic crisis skidded to a new low last week when both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s downgraded its debt to junk status, brushing aside a series of austerity measures taken by the new governor, including increasing taxes and rebalancing pensions. But that is only the latest in a sharp decline leading to widespread fears about Puerto Rico’s future. In the past eight years, Puerto Rico’s ticker tape of woes has stretched unabated: $70 billion in debt, a 15.4 percent unemployment rate, a soaring cost of living, pervasive crime, crumbling schools and a worrisome exodus of professionals and middle-class Puerto Ricans who have moved to places like Florida and Texas.

Aging America heading for disaster (Dana T.)

Ultimately the size of the US economy is simply the total of what we’re all spending. Overall household spending hits a high when we’re about 46. So the peak of the Baby Boom (1961) plus 46 suggests that a high point in the US economy should be about 2007, with a long, slow decline to follow for years to come.

Anyone find that convincing?

Greenland glacier sets glacial speed record (jdargis)

Much of the bedrock beneath Jakobshavn’s final stretch is well below sea level and filled with seawater, though the ice is thick enough that it sits on the bottom rather than floating. The ground below the end (or “terminus”) of the Jakobshavn isn’t flat, so as it retreats, the terminus finds itself in deeper or shallower water. In 2012, it retreated into the bottom of a depression several hundred meters deeper than its previous location. Since deeper water means higher water pressure, the ice there could flow more quickly, pulling on the ice behind it. The peak flow rate near the terminus in the summer of 2012 was about four times faster than speeds in the mid-1990s. The average speed for the year was nearly 3 times faster.

Taking Land From the Mafia, Giving It to Farmers (jdargis)

But even if the Mafia still had its power, Galante thinks Libera Terra’s members would be safe. After all, the farmers don’t own the land they’re working — the government does. “Why would they try to punish us?” he asks. “We are a weak target, too little for them to bother with.”

The Golden Age of Gas, Possibly: Interview with the IEA (James S.)

Under the central scenario of the World Energy Outlook-2013, natural gas production rises to 4.98 trillion cubic metres (tcm) in 2035, up nearly 50 percent from 3.38 tcm in 2011. But we have always said that a golden age of gas does not necessarily imply a golden age for humanity, or for our climate. An expansion of gas use alone is no panacea for climate change. While natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, it is still a fossil fuel. As we have seen in the United States, the drastic increase in shale gas production has caused coal’s share of electricity generation to slide. Of course, there is also the possibility that increased use of gas could muscle out low-carbon fuels, such as renewables and nuclear, from the energy mix.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 2/7/14

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

5 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4168
Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2010
Posts: 3936
Morons.

Well Today Australia just lost it's last Motor car manufacturer. Toyota has pulled the plug.

And here come the morons. Where do they find them?

Steve Dargavel, the state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, told Tom Elliott that the decision to pull out will have wide-ranging consequences for real people and the Australian economy.

No kidding? Who would have thunk? Listening to the radio while making sushi I found myself begging the talking heads to please say something- anything. Eventually I turned it off. Enough torture.

Meanwhile the demand for electric vehicles cannot be filled. What should we have been building?

Please don't tell me your opinion about electric vehicles- it is not salient. If the Market demands pink wheelbarrows- then that is what we should have been building.

Meanwhile dear Mr. Abbott is going after the Unions. Haven't we been down this road before? Something about gutting the middle class?

I don't know why I care.

Time2help's picture
Time2help
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 9 2011
Posts: 2840
Additional Morons

More Americans are throwing in the towel and that's a good thing

Seriously?  There are no bounds.

 

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2010
Posts: 3936
MGTOW Graphed.

I sent this as tomorrows news but I don't know if it went through so I post it again today because I feel it is an important exponential function that started in 2009.

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 654
Did you miss THIS?

Following up on Saxplayer00o1, and thinking about a Set of Targets and Collapse Indicators, I post Harry Dent's 7 Indicators for your review.

Monday, February 10, 2014

7 Ways to Predict the 
Peak Before the Crash 

By Harry S. Dent Jr., Senior Editor, Survive & Prosper

Dear Kenneth,

One of the great things about economics is that it’s all about numbers. This gives us much to track and, if we’re smart, many warnings to see. And right now, there’s just one question on all our minds:

When do we get out of the market?

Phrased another way: How can we know the market’s peaked and the crash is imminent?

It boils down to the usual question of timing.

If we could time the market perfectly, we’d all be rich!

Obviously, perfect timing is a fool’s game. So instead, we make the best educated forecast we can, using these seven signs to let us know when the mark is getting close to peaking.    Get Ready for the Great American Reset


Indicator #1: Margin debt reaches (or exceeds) $430 million.

That’s how high it got at the peak of the 2007 bubble. Since it has gone higher with each bubble peak since 2000, $470 million or a bit higher would be the number I would be looking for.

Indicator #2: Stock buybacks move closer to 87%.

Taking advantage of record-low interest rates, companies have been aggressively repurchasing their own shares. In doing so, they’ve artificially increased their earnings per share by 40%. Currently, 83% of S&P 500 companies are buying back their own stock. Before the 2007 peak, that number was at 87%. We’re close.

Indicator #3: Corporate profit as a percentage of GDP goes above 11%.

At the current level of 11%, corporate profit as a percentage of GDP is already at the highest ever, exceeding even the extreme 2000 bubble. We have the Fed keeping short-term interest rates near zero for so long to thank for that.

Indicator #4: Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios reach 24 to 27.

Excluding the extreme bubble of 2000 and 1929 — when P/Es topped out at 45 and 32, respectively — most major stock peaks occur between P/Es of 22 and 27. Before the correction in January, we hit 25. That is already high enough for a top.

Indicator #5: The market value of non-financial stocks, divided by the GDP ratio, rises above 1.3.

During major peaks, the ratio of market value of non-financial stocks divided by GDP tends to range between 1 and 1.5. We’ve already hit 1.3. That’s high enough, but higher would be better.

Indicator #6: The S&P price-to-revenue valuation fluctuates between -3% and 1%.

Right now, the S&P price-to-revenue valuation model is higher than it was at the peak in 1968. It’s near 2007 levels and approaching the highs of 2000.

Indicator #7: 62% bulls versus 20% bears.

The American Association of Individual Investors tracks the dumb money and everyday investors. These people got shocked out of the market after the 2008 crash. But after nearly five years of Fed stimulus and market increases, these investors began returning to the market in 2012.

What you’ll see just before a major top is a market where bulls rule at around 62%, while bears are only about 20%. We reached those levels before the last top, in late 2010. We didn’t reach those levels before the correction in January. However, we did see extreme readings for investment advisors at 62% bullish and 14% bearish. These professionals are more “in the market” and not as shell-shocked as everyday investors. Hence, they may be the better measure.

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