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Daily Digest 11/9 - Gold Bear To End With A Bang, What Is The Deadliest Kind Of Storm?

Saturday, November 9, 2013, 9:07 AM

Economy

Tesco's Facial Recognition Scanners Raise Privacy Concerns (westcoastjan)

For the time being, Tesco plans to put the facial recognition technology in 450 gas stations around Britain. The company estimates it will deliver “engaging and dynamic content” to about 5 million people per week.

You Deserved It, Now Reap What You Sowed (Thomas C.)

When this began you made up the "difference" by borrowing money. But borrowing is simply a promise to pay tomorrow what you don't have today, plus interest. Rather than say "NO!" to you for that additional spending, they said "YES!" -- but remember, it was you who voted for those people, including most-particularly your union that only existed because you authorized them as your bargaining representatives.

America: Rumors of Food Riots, Realities of War (Thomas C.)

The proximate cause of the expected unrest was November 1st cuts to the food stamp program, which resulted from the expiration of a 2009 stimulus bill. The New York Times estimated that benefits for a family of four will fall $36 a month; for a single adult, it will fall $11. The most current data available (July) indicates that nearly 48 million Americans are on food stamps, or approximately one-seventh of the population. More reductions are expected over coming months as a result of Congressional renegotiations on a farm bill.

Gold Bear To End With A Bang (Thomas C.)

The first chart below shows Gold in 1975 to 1976. Gold’s sudden decline that began in August 1975 took it from over $160/oz down to $128/oz. It was a 20% drop in one month. After it rebounded it formed a marginal new low (A) and traded around $130 for about five months. Once Gold failed at the declining 50-day moving average and lateral resistance it plummeted to its final low.

Statement On Chinese Soldiers Participating In Disaster Training In Hawaii (thatchmo)

“In addition, I will continue to highlight the importance of humanitarian and disaster relief with our military forces. I am pleased to see cooperation with China in this capacity, and it is an added bonus that this exchange is taking place in Hawaii. We have long been America’s doorstep to the Asia-Pacific region, so this national change in focus cannot help but have profound effects on our state, community, and economy.”

Is Fracking All We Have To Worry About? (Mel K.)

Friends Of The Earth’s Australian website states “The Department of Environment Resource Management recently had to shut down a UCG project in Queensland by Cougar Energy, after the discovery that local bores had become polluted with carcinogenic chemicals such as benzene and toluene. The contamination meant farmers in the area were unable to use the bores. The company however, didn't notify the department until two months after it became aware of the contamination.” Cougar Energy announced on August 19th that it is trying to change its name to Moreton Resources as “its current name is strongly linked to UCG and may be disadvantageous for attracting and retaining the support of investors in the future”.

Greenhouse gas reduction called threat to oil industry (westcoastjan)

"Proposed 40/40 is 9 fold increase over current. Why such a dramatic step?" writes David Daly, CAPP's manager of fiscal policy. The average price that a barrel of western Canadian bitumen fetched in 2013 was about $75, so the carbon-pricing increase would represent about a one per cent increase in the cost of a barrel oil.

What Is The Deadliest Kind Of Storm? (jdargis)

As Hurricane Sandy has churned toward the East Coast bringing life-threatening flooding and high winds, it has also been called a tropical cyclone, a “nor'easter on steroids,” and a Frankenstorm. What kind of storm tends to be the most dangerous?

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 11/7/13

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

10 Comments

Time2help's picture
Time2help
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Posts: 2840
Western Black Rhino Declared Extinct

Western Black Rhino Declared Extinct

Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3105
Sad - I saw them in the wild

Very sad.

I saw black rhinos in the African wild 30 years ago.

Interestingly, I also saw a few white rhinos, which were already quite endangered and sequestered on a reserve dedicated to their preservation. The white rhino is still with us (though barely) while the less-protected black is not.

:(

Doug's picture
Doug
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Posts: 3176
Species extinctions

Species extinctions are, for me, the scariest of the numerous signs and symptoms of our deteriorating ecosystems and cultures.  But sshhh, don't do anything about it.  Jobs may be threatened.

Doug

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
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Posts: 3936
To PV or not to PV? (EROEI of PVs)

Podomatic chews the fat

HughK's picture
HughK
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Posts: 761
Please help - Philippines weather forecasting

Hi all,

I am trying to figure out the possibility of a second, albeit smaller, tropical storm hitting the Philippines in the next few days, but I am not very experienced at looking at raw meteorological data or forecasts.  

According to some of my wife's friends on Facebook, another tropical storm may be heading toward the Philippines, but I am not able to tell if this is rumor or more factually based.

According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, there is another tropical storm forming in the Western Pacific.  Apparently, the international name is Pudol and the name in the Philippines will be Zoraida.  Here is a link to the typhoon page at the Japanese Meteorological Agency.  (Note that the map is interactive and there is a second possible tropical storm marked on the map between West Papua and Palau, southeast of the Philippines.)

We are trying to figure out what this will look like as it passes through Mindanao (the southernmost large island of the Philippines) and the Eastern Visayas, where my wife's family lives, because we are planning to help with relief efforts for Typhoon Haiyan (aka Yolanda) by sending supplies via ferryboat from Cebu to Naval, Biliran province, some time between tomorrow and Wednesday, but if the seas are likely to be rough, this will affect our plans.  When I check weather.com forecasts for Cebu and Naval (both in Philippines), it's just calling for scattered thunderstorms and relatively mild winds (maxing at  ~25 km/hour in the Cebu area on Tuesday).  Also, I don't really know what 25 km/hour winds mean for a ferryboat in the Visayan Sea.

But, since PP has some members who are adept at reading more in-depth meteorology forecasts, I thought I'd ask for help, and I'd be very grateful to receive any insight.

Thanks a lot!

Hugh

Doug's picture
Doug
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Posts: 3176
Beaufort scale

Oops, my mistake.  I somehow translated km to kt, a unit I'm more used to using.  Still, the Beaufort scale may be useful in figuring out how high the seas will be.

http://powerboat.about.com/od/weatherandtides/a/Beaufortscale.htm

Doug

Aaron M's picture
Aaron M
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Posts: 2369
Forecast

Hey Hugh,
I sent this to you in a private message as well, but since we very well may have other people who either live in the Philippines, are assisting on the ground, or sending aid, perhaps it will do some good to repost it here.

First, an understanding of what's going on:

Typhoon is another name for Hurricane. The genesis of the phenomenon is named for what we refer to as a source region - Hurricanes are sourced from Africa, where low pressure 'waves' are actually sent against the prevailing winds and travel from east to west through an atmospheric corridor known as the TUTT (Tropical upper-level tropospheric trough) which allows them to create a strong updraft. I'll return to that in a moment. Hurricanes are typically a seasonal occurrence, IIRC, between May and September are the most likely months, and impact the Southeastern U.S., Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard most commonly.

Typhoons generate from similar waves, but because of their orientation and proxmity to the equator, they are not seasonal occurrences - they can happen at most any time of the year, provided they have the necessary instability, sufficient moisture, appropriate dry air intrusion in the mid levels, and of course, high sea-surface temperatures. They disproportionally impact the Philippines.

So, the basic mechanics for a cyclone (which is a generic term meaning any storm system that has a counter-clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere) are that there is a thermal gradient between the surface and the upper level, with a cold or rapidly cooling boundary in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and a high temperature at the surface.

This causes convection, and the warm air rises. As it does, it undergoes a process of adiabatic cooling, which occurs as the particles expand due to the diminished impacts of air density. This is generally a transport mechanism for water vapor, and as that water vapor travels upwards and cools rapidly, it condenses into clouds. With the right mix of mid level winds, this gives a storm it's strength.

Typhoons and Hurricanes require a higher sea-surface temperature, meaning that warm water and a cool atmosphere is the ideal conditions for them to form. Generally speaking, the conditions that created Haiyan are probably still present, but are also diminished. The chaos created by a typhoon creates a very unstable wind field that doesn't help secondary cyclones form. It may not stop them, either, but I have never heard of two storms of equal (and severe) intensity hitting so close to one another.

It is unlikely that you will be dealing with Hurricane force winds, for example. The current forecast for winds of 25 knots, for example is a "pushing wind". You'll feel it as a slight press on your back, but it will not blow you over or capsize a vessel. I just dug this up - it might be of help in determining wind speed and how it relates to the felt impacts: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/beaufort.html

So with the pressure on the tropical depression (which is increasing - which means becoming less severe), and it's current wind speeds (~45kts), you'd be looking at a 'rough' ride on a medium sized vessel (such as a ferry) but probably not terribly dangerous, provided the vessel is sound and the crew is sharp. Even with this tropical depression on the heels of Haiyan, it's relative strength will probably be significantly lower. The sea surface temperatures is, however, still very high in that region at this time, so the amount of tropical storms could increase the likelihood of flooding, and damaging winds amid the relief efforts.

So, a quick bottom line - the tropical depression coming in now is not a joke. It looks like it is happening, and if it tracks along the warm water (which it will), it will be coming towards the Philippines. It should *not*, however, make landfall with nearly the amount of destructive energy as Haiyan.

The hazards at sea will likely be wreckage and debris, and possible bathymetric changes due to the storm. I don't have access to the information on the shipping lanes at this time, so I can't say this is, or is not an issue. These could pose some risks, but caution and care should be enough to mitigate. The sea surface conditions will be marginally impacted by the Tropical depression, and unless it upgrades into another Typhoon, which I don't see as particularly likely, and I think the supplies you send (provided they make it there within the next 2-4 days) should arrive safely.

On the ground, expect localized flooding, strong and damaging winds, and interruptions to power supplies. Be sure to take methods of purifying water, power sources and emergency communications devices/radios. If anyone you know personally will be receiving the goods, this would be some general advice. Take care to wear boots, wash and purify water.

At this time, I see the timeframe you're looking to send supplies as 'favorable', if not ideal. The storm looks to be ~144 hours out, so I'm fair certain this is a good window in which to assist.

Please don't hesitate to ask if you need more information, or if I can be of further use.
I truly wish I could help in a more official capacity.

Cheers,

Aaron

HughK's picture
HughK
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Posts: 761
Thanks, Aaron and Doug!

Thanks a lot, Aaron and Doug.  I appreciate your replies.  I will let you know how it goes and how they are doing.  As of now, there is still no communication with my wife's home village, but there is some limited communication with Naval, the capital city of her home province, which is Biliran.  She used to work in Tacloban City, and I trust everyone has seen what has happened there.

All the best,

Hugh

Denny Johnson's picture
Denny Johnson
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Posts: 348
Hugh

I find this link helpful for monitoring Western Pacific typhoons, yours hasn't shown up as a tropical storm yet,  if it does you can track the forecast via links on this page.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?index_region=wp

For example, you can now see the forecast, location and strength, for Haiyan. The forecasts usually go out further if the storm retains intensity, but Haiyan is only expected to be a depression in the last forecast.

I also see this:

Meanwhile, another tropical disturbance could target the southern and central Philippines beginning Monday night or Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday. Areas hit hard by Haiyan could have a period of soaking rainfall which would hamper any relief and rebuilding efforts across the region.

at http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/west-pacific

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 3936
Govenor Christie Lights Up.

Governor Christie looks to be in the Pink. He could be el Presidente.

I wonder what are the odds of spontaneous combustion?

You never know- It happened to Tutankhamun.

I wouldn't be standing too close-Safety First you know.

 

 

 

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