Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 1/29 - Capitulation Everywhere, Is Canada The Most Overvalued Housing Market?

Tuesday, January 29, 2013, 1:33 PM

Economy

Past & Future Speculative Bubbles - What They Indicate for Gold & Silver (GE Christenton)

When the market proceeds into a bubble phase, it rallies beyond that new high and continues much higher. The end of phase 1 and the beginning of phase 2 are the point at which the market rallies from its correction low and exceeds its previous high. See the graph of the silver market with the indicated beginning and end points for phase 1 and phase 2.

Capitulation Everywhere (adam)

Quite simply, the reason that pension funds and other investors hold more bonds relative to stocks than they have historically is that there are more bonds outstanding, relative to stocks, than there have been historically. What is viewed as “underinvestment” in stocks is actually a symptom of a rise in the gross indebtedness of the global economy, enabled and encouraged by quantitative easing of central banks, which have been successful in suppressing all apparent costs of that releveraging.

Canadian Housing Bubble: The Most Overvalued Market in the World (Chris F.)

As stated in a previous article, in order for prices for housing to go back up, debt has to be increased. When debt is already at an all-time high, that will be very hard to do. Canadians are in debt levels never seen before, at 160% debt/income. You see, debt is the “fuel” to the real-estate market. The market is no longer overly optimistic; the general mood has changed from “greed” to ”fear”. This is a typical buyer’s psychology also know as the “herd mentality”. One sheep, then two sheep, then three, four…and then the whole flock comes rushing to the door to sell and get out of the market.

Prediction: Canada will slip back into recession in 2013 (Nervous Nelly)

The symptoms are treated; the diseases remain. Banks remain financially precarious and poorly supervised; more will implode. Governments continue running large deficits, which at some point will lead to sovereign defaults far more spectacular than anything witnessed to date. Central banks maintain lending rates as low as possible and buy huge quantities of fixed income securities in a practice known as “quantitative easing”—measures that contribute to damaging asset bubbles.

France 'totally bankrupt', says labour minister Michel Sapin (Nervous Nelly)

Data from Banque de France showed earlier this month that a flight of capital has already left the country amid concerns that France’s Socialist leader intends to soak the rich and businesses. The actor Gérard Depardieu has renounced his French citizenship and decamped to Russia in protest, while David Cameron said Britain will “roll out the red carpet” to attract wealthy individuals.

Does 2013 Herald an Oil Supply Crisis? (James S.)

Now everybody knows that a major reduction of oil exports could easily drive prices up by tens of dollars a barrel in short order. Last spring, when the rhetoric between the Iranians and Israelis reached a zenith, prices were driven up by threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. Although the current rhetoric is much lower, the Iranian nuclear confrontation is still with us.

Timberland Helps Haiti Plant 2 Million Trees, and Counting (Katherine H.)

"When this program began, our vision was to create a model that could be self-financing within a reasonable amount of time and would generate positive social, environmental and economic impact," says Margaret Morey-Reuner, Timberland's senior manager of values marketing. "The great results so far are a testament to the camaraderie, hard work and independence of these farmers as well as to this private sector, NGO and community stakeholder collaboration."

Mexico City's Mile-Deep Aquifer Tapping Suggests U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need (Ben Johnson)

"U.S. environmental regulators have long assumed that reservoirs located thousands of feet underground will be too expensive to tap. So even as population increases, temperatures rise, and traditional water supplies dry up, American scientists and policy-makers often exempt these deep aquifers from clean water protections and allow energy and mining companies to inject pollutants directly into them.

As ProPublica has reported in an ongoing investigation about America's management of its underground water, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has issued more than 1,500 permits for companies to pollute such aquifers in some of the driest regions. Frequently, the reason was that the water lies too deep to be worth protecting.
But Mexico City's plans to tap its newly discovered aquifer suggest that America is poisoning wells it might need in the future.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the Gold & Silver Digest: 1/28/13

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

6 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Tall's picture
Tall
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Posts: 564
Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem

A person might think from looking at news reports that our oil problems are gone, but oil prices are still high.
In fact, the new “tight oil” sources of oil which are supposed to grow in supply are still expensive to extract. If we expect to have more tight oil and more oil from other unconventional sources, we need to expect to continue to have high oil prices. The new oil may help supply somewhat, but the high cost of extraction is not likely to go away.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/01/17/ten-reasons-why-high-oil-prices-are...

Tall's picture
Tall
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
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Posts: 564
Altamont Pass turbines kill fewer birds

For decades, wind turbines straddling the Altamont Pass have generated clean electricity for California - at the cost of killing thousands of birds.

The tall, grassy hills, raked by stiff winds in spring and summer, offer prime hunting territory for owls, hawks and eagles. Focused on spotting prey, many birds soar straight into the spinning blades of turbines.

But efforts to curb the bloodshed may be starting to work.

A new study suggests that the number of eagles, kestrels, burrowing owls and red-tailed hawks killed at Altamont each year has fallen roughly 50 percent since 2005. Reaching that level has been a long-term goal of local environmentalists and government officials, as well as the energy companies running turbines in the pass.

 http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Altamont-Pass-turbines-kill-fewer-birds-4230640.php

Tall's picture
Tall
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 18 2010
Posts: 564
Function of the government?

"That is to say, the core purpose of government in the American tradition is the maintenance of the national commons. It exists to manage the various commons and commons-like phenomena that are inseparable from life in a civilized society, and thus has the power to impose such limits on people (and corporate pseudopeople) as will prevent their pursuit of personal advantage from leading to a tragedy of the commons in one way or another. Restricting the capacity of banks to gamble with depositors’ money is one such limit; restricting the freedom of manufacturers to sell unsafe food is another, and so on down the list of reasonable regulations. Beyond those necessary limits, government has no call to intervene; how people choose to live their lives, exercise their liberties, and pursue happiness is up to them, so long as it doesn’t put the survival of any part of the national commons at risk."

Interesting essay.
/http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2013/01/restoring-commons.html

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chm
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Posts: 46
Don’t believe thorium nuclear reactor hype

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/environment/dont-believe-thorium-nuclear-reactor-hype/

Although there are current designs that could be established in 10 to 15 years, the most favoured design – the  Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR) – is estimated to have, for a significant deployment, a lead time of 40 to 70 years.

...

The fuel cycle is more costly and the needed protections for workers, plant safety and the public are considerably more than for existing fuels. Compared to uranium, the thorium fuel cycle is likely to be even more costly. In a once-through mode, it will need both uranium enrichment (or plutonium separation) and thorium target rod production. In a breeder configuration, it will need reprocessing, which is costly.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Posts: 5752
About Thorium...
chm wrote:

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/environment/dont-believe-thorium-nuclear-reactor-hype/

Although there are current designs that could be established in 10 to 15 years, the most favoured design – the  Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR) – is estimated to have, for a significant deployment, a lead time of 40 to 70 years.

...

The fuel cycle is more costly and the needed protections for workers, plant safety and the public are considerably more than for existing fuels. Compared to uranium, the thorium fuel cycle is likely to be even more costly. In a once-through mode, it will need both uranium enrichment (or plutonium separation) and thorium target rod production. In a breeder configuration, it will need reprocessing, which is costly.

I think there's plenty of room for a reasoned debate on the merits of Thorium but this article isn't it.

Loaded with emotionally leading wording the bias of the author is abundantly clear.  More persuasive arguments are always found in writers who can at least shield their audience from the author's own belief structures.

But even where 'facts' are used I found them lacking.  In one example the article makes this statement:

The fuel cycle is more costly and the needed protections for workers, plant safety and the public are considerably more than for existing fuels.

To back this claim there is a citation which I followed to a site called SimplyInfo.Org and read this statement in that article:

Another myth is that thorium reactors can run at atmospheric temperatures, in order to produce power they must be run differently and would not be at atmospheric temperatures.

Ummmm....there's no such thing as atmospheric temperatures as those vary from -100F to +120F.  What the author was trying to recite was the notion of atmospheric pressures which is, indeed, one possible operating configuration for LFTRs.

Because the author used the term temperatures twice I am unwilling to spot them the slip-O-the-fingers goof that we are all prone to.  

When someone does not detect the grade school science difference between temperatures and pressures I am quite unwilling to ingest the remainder of their claims about nuclear physics and toxicities, fuel cycles and such.  Almost certainly they are simply regurgitating, badly, some stuff they read elsewhere and, if I tracked that down, would certainly fall into an echo chamber composed of almost everything but expertise.

Now, all that said, I think a hefty and reasonable debate about thorium and LFTRs is certainly warranted and I am wide open to reasoned and reasonable articles and countervailing information.

After all, every technology has two sides and I am not one to believe that thorium is any sort of savior.  I did utterly agree with one point in the article which is that thorium will take decades to make any reasonable inroads into the total energy equation.

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