Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 8/11 - Things Fall Apart, $90 Oil A "Very Real Possibility"

Saturday, August 11, 2018, 11:07 AM

Economy

8 Measures Say A Crash Is Coming, Here's How To Time It (Thomas R.)

“According to various tests of statistical significance, each of these indicators’ track records is significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when assessing whether a pattern is genuine.

However, the differences between the R-squared of the top four or five indicators I studied probably aren’t statistically significant, I was told by Prof. Shiller. That means you’re overreaching if you argue that you should pay more attention to, say, the average household equity allocation than the price/sales ratio.”

Things Fall Apart Pt. 1 (Alex M.)

I don’t want to overstate the case. It bugs me to no end when people say that something is “another Pearl Harbor” or that we’re talking about a “civil war”. You know what’s like Pearl Harbor? Pearl Harbor was like Pearl Harbor. You know what’s like a civil war? Go to Wikipedia and look up Biafra, and then get back to me about how awful it is that Democrats and Republicans are figuratively at each others’ throats, not literally.

Google Struggles to Contain Employee Uproar over China Censorship Plans (Sparky1)

“In my opinion it is just as bad as the leak mentions,” the employee wrote, adding that they had asked their manager to be removed from the project because they were uncomfortable with it. Another member of the team, the employee said, had decided to quit Google in large part due to concerns about Dragonfly.

Debt And The Marshmallow Experiment (Phil D.)

Credit cards, mortgages, student loans, HELOCs, car loans, payday loans and Goddamn mattress-financing, it’s a potpourri of foolhardy behavior, consumers, corporations, and governments, all stuffed to the gills with borrowed money.

Somehow, the most important concept to success in life is not taught or even discussed in 13 years of mandated, mind-numbing, government “education”.

“What Have We Done?”: Silicon Valley Engineers Fear They've Created a Monster (Sparky1)

Those of us on the front lines of the gig economy were the first to spot and expose its flaws—two months after leaving Uber, I wrote a highly publicized account of my time there, describing the company’s toxic work environment in detail. Now, as Silicon Valley struggles to come to terms with its corrosive underpinnings, a new vein of disquiet has wormed its way into the Slack chats and happy-hour outings of low-level rank-and-file engineers, spurred by a question that seems to drown out everything else: What have we done? It’s a question that I, too, have been forced to grapple with as I notice how my job as a software engineer has changed the nature of work in general—and not necessarily for the better.

Silicon Valley Writes a Playbook to Help Avert Ethical Disasters (Sparky1)

"Here we are in this new era where there's a whole set of unintended societal consequences that are emerging as tech becomes more ubiquitous, and yet, tech companies haven't caught up with the direct link between the products they have and being able to get ahead of that," says Paula Goldman, the head of the Tech and Society Solutions Lab, which led the project. "The impetus for the Ethical OS toolkit was exactly that: Here's a tool that helps you think through these consequences and makes sure what you're designing is good for the world and good for your longer-term bottom line."

Instead of focusing on cutting calories, eat less processed foods (Thomas R.)

A typical processed diet looks like this: breakfast - pancakes with syrup, sausage, juice; lunch - ham sandwich with cheese on white bread, potato chips, soda; dinner - cheeseburger, French fries, sweet tea; snack - ice cream. Average intake for this is 2,860 calories, 5,912 milligrams of sodium, 435 grams of carbohydrates, 261 grams of sugar, 87 grams of protein and 105 grams of fat.

Turkish Banks Scramble to Stave Off Debt Crisis, as Lira Plummets (Thomas R.)

The latest spark of concern was the U.S. government’s decision at the weekend to declare sanctions against two Turkish cabinet ministers over the detention of an American pastor. The Trump administration said it was also reviewing Turkey’s duty-free access to the U.S. market, which could affect $1.7 billion of Turkish exports. Bloomberg reported that the US has prepared a broader list of Turkish entities and individuals that could be subject to further sanctions.

The Crypto Market Just Hit a Low for 2018 (Thomas R.)

The rise in the bitcoin dominance rate – an indicator that tracks the percent of the total crypto market capitalization contributed by the leading cryptocurrency – to an eight-month high of 48.6 percent also suggests the investors are venturing out of alternative cryptocurrencies and into bitcoin, and then possibly on to fiat currency.

The falling spread or difference between the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except bitcoin and BTC's market capitalization is also signaling reduced demand for high-risk alternative cryptocurrencies.

American Workers Just Got a Pay Cut in Economy Trump Calls Great (Sparky1)

“Inflation has been climbing and wage growth, meanwhile, has been flat as a pancake,” said Laura Rosner, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC in New York. “In a very tight labor market you would expect that workers would negotiate their wages to at least keep up with the cost of living, and the picture tells you that they’re not.”

Tesla Semi prototype spotted at truck inspection – it was ‘cleared’ (Thomas R.)

Tesla already said that carrying cargo between its two factories would be the first use of the Tesla Semi trucks and Musk referred to the automaker’s logistic costs to carry cargo between the two locations as “gigantic”.

Today, one of the Tesla Semi truck prototypes was stopped at the CHP Donner Pass Inspection Center near the border between Nevada and California on the route to Gigafactory 1.

After 20 years of planning, ambitious Solar mission about to launch (Thomas R.)

Astronomers have since come to realize the profound importance of this solar wind for our planet and the rest of the Solar System. For example, we now know that a few hundred million years after its formation, the early solar wind accelerated ions in the upper Martian atmosphere to an escape velocity, stripping the young planet of much of its atmosphere over time.

Discrepancy Over Saudi Oil Data Could Rattle Markets (Thomas R.)

Saudi Arabia has pressed independent energy analysts to alter their estimates of its oil production, people familiar with the matter said, a move that could put it in conflict with other members of the fractious Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

$90 Oil Is A Very Real Possibility (Thomas R.)

There is still a wide range of possibilities for what is set to occur over the next three months in regards to the impact on production and exports. Originally, the Trump administration stated its desire to push Iran’s exports to “zero.” The subsequent spike in oil prices forced them to backtrack quite a bit.

Dyer: Scientific word is out on coming ‘Hothouse Earth’ (Paul D.)

Hothouse Earth is not very hospitable to human life. Hundreds of millions or even a billion or two would probably survive, but the damage to agricultural systems would be so extreme that billions more would die. (The authors don’t say this, of course, but the people who have to think about these contingencies, like the military in the developed countries, know it very well.) What the authors are saying is that global warming driven directly by human emissions of greenhouse gases is only smaller part of the problem. The real threat is the unstoppable natural feedbacks, triggered by the warming that we have caused, that will take us up to the killing temperatures.

Monsanto ordered to pay $289m to terminally ill groundsman who used Roundup weedkiller (Sparky1, Alex M., edelinski)

The company immediately said it would appeal against the decision and tried to reassure consumers - including those using Roundup in Britain - that its weedkiller was safe.

Mr Johnson was seeking $412 million in damages. Jurors awarded him $39 million for his losses and $250 million to punish the company after finding it liable for a design defect and failing to warn of Roundup’s risks. Monsanto said it will appeal.

Astronaut watches Europe dry up from space during scorching summer heat wave (Thomas R.)

“Just had a chance to take my first photos of dried-out Central Europe and Germany since a few weeks, and was shocked,” Gerst wrote on Twitter. “What should have been green, is now all brown. Never seen it like this before,” he wrote, posting photos from the International Space Station.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 8/9/18

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

6 Comments

LesPhelps's picture
LesPhelps
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 30 2009
Posts: 807
Eat less processed food

The article starts off, "You are what you eat."

Greeks had insight into this idea before 400 BC.

Platos Republic wrote:

Socrates: Would this habit of eating animals not require that we slaughter animals that we knew as individuals, and in whose eyes we could gaze and see ourselves reflected, only a few hours before our meal? 

Glaucon: This habit would require that of us. 

Socrates: Wouldn't this [knowledge of our role in turning a being into a thing] hinder us in achieving happiness? 

Glaucon: It could so hinder us in our quest for happiness. 

Socrates: And, if we pursue this way of living, will we not have need to visit the doctor more often? 

Glaucon: We would have such need. 

Socrates: If we pursue our habit of eating animals, and if our neighbor follows a similar path, will we not have need to go to war against our neighbor to secure greater pasturage, because ours will not be enough to sustain us, and our neighbor will have a similar need to wage war on us for the same reason? 

Glaucon: We would be so compelled. 

Socrates: Would not these facts prevent us from achieving happiness, and therefore the conditions necessary to the building of a just society, if we pursue a desire to eat animals? 

Glaucon: Yes, they would so prevent us.

HappyCamper's picture
HappyCamper
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 16 2018
Posts: 33
History

“The only thing new in the world is the history you do not know.”



― Harry Truman

 

 

https://www.archives.gov/publications/prologue/2009/spring/truman-histor...

Democracy cannot survive overpopulation.

Albert Bartlett

 

https://rewilding.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/DemocracyOverpopulation...

The quotes at the end of this video are astounding.

Good Luck to everyone

HappyCamper's picture
HappyCamper
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 16 2018
Posts: 33
Overpopulation

My favorite perspective on overpopulation is shared with Jane Goodall, that addressing overpopulation is politically incorrect. Overpopulation, imho, is an artifact of a debt based monetary paradigm that requires perpetual growth. And "The Three E's" are moving towards exponential levels as described.

 

http://www.permanentculturenow.com/the-real-economic-scandal-understandi...

My concern, simply put, is who ultimately decides who shall live and who shall die to save humanity and the planet ?

History has shown us solutions and failures. And the planet itself may eventually provide a solution if our problems remain unsolved.

Good Luck to everyone 

skipr's picture
skipr
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 9 2016
Posts: 156
Syriana & butterflies

This reminds me of a line in the movie Syriana where one oil tycoon says to another that "Capitalism can not exist without waste."  We have pretty much wasted away planet earth maximizing that elusive concept called profit which, in turn, requires an ever increasing population.  There's a scene in another movie where a mentally insane person is chasing an imaginay butterfly.  That guy is an economist chasing a butterfly with dollar sign wings.  So what happens to this "thin air" debt based monetary system now?  It's going to get exponentially uglier.

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4209
Turkey contagion fears roil Italy's bond market

Turkey crisis is worse than Lehman, similar to 1998

Times of India-4 hours ago
Turkey is now seen as more likely to default on its debt than Greece, which is rated four notches lower by Moody's Investor Service. The current CDS pricing ...

Turkey contagion fears roil Italy's bond market

Reuters-7 hours ago
Markets were unnerved on Friday by a report in the Financial Times that the European Central Bank was worried about European banks' exposure to Turkey.

Indian rupee hits record low, central bank intervention seen

CNBC-9 hours ago
The Indian rupee on Monday touched an all-time low of 69.62 per dollar in early trade, tracking broader weakness in other emerging market currencies on ...

As Venezuela disintegrates, a new breed of pirates threatens the ...

Tampa Bay Times-2 hours ago
Political and economic crises are exploding from Venezuela to Nicaragua to Haiti, sparking anarchy and criminality. As the rule of law breaks down, certain spots ...

 

Empirical Spiritual's picture
Empirical Spiritual
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 1 2012
Posts: 19
Overpopulation

It is also hardwired in us to reproduce - go forth and multiply might make sense for your Bronze Age tribe’s struggle against the next. When you have 7bn hungry mouths, it becomes rapacious.

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