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Daily Digest 5/17 - Economic Numbers Are Less Than Meet the Eye, Rising Oil Prices Could Undermine Tax Cut

Thursday, May 17, 2018, 10:24 AM

Economy

Economic Numbers Are Less Than Meet the Eye (thc0655)

Yet the real unemployment rate is far worse than that. The unemployment rate is calculated using a narrow definition of the workforce. But there are millions of able-bodied men and women between the ages of 25–54 capable of work who are not included in the workforce.

System-wide failure hits Sacramento area Sutter Health clinics (Thomas R.)

Local facilities impacted include the Sutter Medical Center, Sacramento, as well as clinics in Roseville and Davis. Patients are being asked to reschedule nonemergency surgeries and lab testing. Zavoral did not know how many people were affected.

Those who have not been contacted by a Sutter facility about their appointment should arrive as planned.

Europe to ditch US dollar in payments for Iranian oil – source (yogmonster)

The Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was sealed three years ago in Vienna between Tehran and the P5+1 powers (China, France, Russia, UK, US, plus Germany). The agreement saw decades-long international sanctions lifted in exchange for Iran curbing its controversial nuclear program. On January 16, 2016, the parties to the deal announced the beginning of its implementation.

The Gaza Massacre. Western Governments Complicit in Crimes against Humanity (yogmonster)

Not a single Western country has sofar ordered the expulsion of Israeli diplomats in protest over the mass killings of Palestinian civilians by IDF snipers, including children. A crime against humanity under international law is casually dismissed. “Israel has the right to defend itself”, says US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

A tiny satellite bound for Mars just snapped a photo of Earth that will make you feel puny and insignificant (Thomas R.)

During a series of tests on May 9, MarCO-B — which engineers also call "Wall-E" — took its first photo. Scientists used the image (below) to check the deployment of an antenna, but two familiar objects appear in the distance: Earth and its moon.

Facebook deleted 583 million fake accounts in the first three months of 2018 (Thomas R.)

Facebook has been dealing with mounting pressure from lawmakers and public opinion over how powerful it's become. In April, CEO Mark Zuckerberg testified before Congress, promising greater transparency and responsibility from the social network. Facebook has gone under intense scrutiny over issues of disinformation campaigns from Russian trolls, as well as a data scandal involving 87 million people.

Google’s Selfish Ledger is an unsettling vision of Silicon Valley social engineering (Alex M.)

“User-centered design principles have dominated the world of computing for many decades, but what if we looked at things a little differently? What if the ledger could be given a volition or purpose rather than simply acting as a historical reference? What if we focused on creating a richer ledger by introducing more sources of information? What if we thought of ourselves not as the owners of this information, but as custodians, transient carriers, or caretakers?”

Could Gold Be Worth Even More Than The $10,000 Jim Rickards Suggests? (yogmonster)

Jim Sinclair (and Bill Holter) believes the Great Reset is coming. When that happens, you will want as many ounces of the real McCoy as possible. Paper gold and silver ETFs (that do not allow you to redeem your position in PHYSICAL COINS) will be useless during the "reset." You will get back DOLLARS, not ounces. You will be locked out with nothing but dollars and no gold or silver.

'We're right at peak gold': All major deposits have been discovered, declares Goldcorp chairman (Alex M.)

Although gold prices sank two per cent to US$1,289.86 per ounce this week, sliding below the psychologically significant US$1,300 mark for the first time this year, Telfer said that day that he remained “bullish” and predicted gold prices would surpass US$1,500 or US$1,600 per ounce before the end of the year.

Merk Insights: Flattering Yield Curve Is Good (Axel M.)

With this context, please look at the chart above which also shows the unemployment rate and recessions. The yield curve has been flattening since 2010; if you listen to financial media, you might think it's a new development. The fact that the yield curve is flattening or at a relatively flat level does not really mean anything by itself, for example the yield curve was relatively flat in the second half of the 1990s and economic growth remained strong for years. The advertising-based media model means that media outlets want your attention all the time, and therefore they tend to generate fear inducing headlines like "US Treasury yield curve hasn't been this flat since 2007" just to get you to click.

Rising Fuel Prices Could Offset Tax Cuts (Michael S.)

Amid this debate and the rising oil prices that led to continuously rising gasoline prices for American consumers at the start of the peak summer driving season, Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE)—an organization which advocates for policies to boost U.S. energy security by significantly reducing dependence on oil and promoting responsible use of domestic energy resources—is calling on EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to seize the fuel standard revision opportunity “to protect American businesses and consumers by optimizing, not weakening, fuel economy standards.”

11 ways to avoid hurricane damage (Thomas R.)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is predicting eight to 13 named storms during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Three to six of those storms could become hurricanes, including one or two major hurricanes with winds in excess of 110 mph.

As communities rebuild after hurricanes, study shows wetlands can significantly reduce property damage (Thomas R.)

In a new and unique partnership funded by Lloyd’s of London, we worked with colleagues in academia, environmental organizations and the insurance industry to calculate the financial benefits that coastal wetlands provide by reducing storm surge damages from hurricanes. Our recently published study found that this function is enormously valuable. It offers new evidence that protecting natural ecosystems is a cost-effective way to reduce risks from coastal storms and flooding.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 5/16/18

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

14 Comments

ezlxq1949's picture
ezlxq1949
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 29 2009
Posts: 199
Real US unemployment rates?

Shadowstats reckons the true unemployment rate in the US for April 2018 is 21.5%.

Here's a critique of the Shadowstats, reckoning that John Williams' stats are completely implausible.

When I find the time (!) I will compare and contrast.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5693
I'm intrigued...
ezlxq1949 wrote:

Shadowstats reckons the true unemployment rate in the US for April 2018 is 21.5%.

Here's a critique of the Shadowstats, reckoning that John Williams' stats are completely implausible.

When I find the time (!) I will compare and contrast.

Please be sure to let us know what you find.

The whole employment/unemployment area is fraught with implausibility and political gaming.

I just figure that if we were really, truly at a sub-4% unemployment rate that we wouldn't be reading statistics about 50+% of households not having $500 for an emergency.

Know what I mean?

lambertad's picture
lambertad
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 31 2013
Posts: 177
da gov stats

I have no data on disability stats in 2018, but a recent article I could find stated in 2015 that 5.2% of working age adults were on da gov dole. Just for fun take 4% and double it and add 5.2% and suddenly we're at 13.2%. That's essentially 1/8 working age adults that are either unemployed or on disability. 

Think doubling the unemployment rate is too crazy? I had a patient today tell me that in 1965 her first apartment cost her $15/month. It was only a studio she quipped!

 

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
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Posts: 529
Is it time to review the basics?

Higher prices for oil may be garnering more press than Trump this week, but the implications for our society are just beginning to become apparent. Jobs, GDP, international relations are just a few of the things that potentially could be affected by early stages of the "Peak-Oil-Slide". A quick review of Gail tvarberg's recent presentation should give us all pause to consider what we can do slow the "slide" and extend what we have:

https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/tverberg-reaching-limits-of-a-finite-world.pdf

Although it's not a panacea, we should not give up on options. Despite the looming fact of "declining marginal utility", when your back's against the wall, getting a couple more decades of fossil energy will help your grandkids better tolerate the eventual collapse.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/03/solar-power-can-pay-easily/

Happy Good-News-Friday!

LesPhelps's picture
LesPhelps
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Posts: 762
12th Way to Avoid Hurricane Damage

Don’t live near the ocean.

Quercus bicolor's picture
Quercus bicolor
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 19 2008
Posts: 465
Uncletommy

I read through the 2 page pdf from NREL.  As best I can tell, it suffers from the "narrow boundaries" problem.  It doesn't seem to account for some of the panel materials like the copper and silver conductors - although this probably isn't significant.  I suspect it only accounts for the actual energy used by the manufacturing plant, not the embodied energy in the plant itself of the energy needed to support it's employees and their dependents.  I don't see any indication that they account for transportation of materials from manufacturing site to installation site, installation, planning and implementation of each project, concrete footings for utility scale installations, fencing, much less the energy consumed by the people employed in these activities and their dependents.  I'm not even sure they account for mining and refining of raw materials.

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 4 2014
Posts: 529
And the options are?

Appreciate your comments, Quercus and realize the realities. However, once your capital costs are covered, the potential for higher EROEI's are within the realm of "achievables". The "narrow boundries" you identify constitute the challenges ahead of us. My reference to Gail's address was to highlight the reality of the decreasing marginal utility our world faces by contiuing to invest in fossil fuel infrastucture. The complexity of our society, that manifests itself in increasing consumption patterns, is the result of increasing populations and affluent lifestyles. Simplicity in design and/or a return to lower expectations is really (IMHO) one of the only reasonable approaches left to us. My assumption is that it may leave us enough time to structure our economies before a catastrophic collapse and irreparable damage to our environment. If given the choice between a Mars mission or investments in wind, solar and power storage, you know where my money will be. I also own two wood stoves and hand pump well.  

History has shown us that collapse can happen regionally and at different times in a non-globalized world. Once transportation of materials and information become unattainable or too costly in a globalized world collapse will be wide spread and irreversible. Call me old fashioned, but I do worry about my grandkids and great-grandkids. Appreciate the input.

Quercus bicolor's picture
Quercus bicolor
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 19 2008
Posts: 465
Agreed

I'm right there with you too, Uncletommy,

Knowing the embedded energy hidden in the process could help us reduce it.  For example, 6-foot chain link fences topped with razor wire are a great way to keep folks from walking among the panels and electocuting themselves on the high voltage wires connecting them to the inverters, but those fences have lots of embedded energy in them.  There's got to be a lower energy way to do it!

HappyCamper's picture
HappyCamper
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 16 2018
Posts: 13
12th Way to Avoid Hurricane Damage

LesPhelps

 

Lived in Florida for 25 years. 2004 was a bad year for hurricanes as we lost power for two weeks. Others had it much worse. Thank goodness we are tent campers with all the necessary gear  :-) .After Matthew hit the Saint Augustine coast in October 2016 my wife and I decided to moved to NW Georgia. We used to live 25 miles from the coast. 75 mph winds are not fun  :-) . 

Moving 300+ miles inland didn't stop Irma from dumping heavy rain and producing high winds that caused flooding and power outages in 2017. I guess Mother Nature will flex her muscles wherever you live  :-)

I'm not a big fan of earthquakes or volcanoes so the NW Georgia mountains will do  :-)

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 2 2010
Posts: 1447
lambertad wrote: I have no
lambertad wrote:

I have no data on disability stats in 2018, but a recent article I could find stated in 2015 that 5.2% of working age adults were on da gov dole. Just for fun take 4% and double it and add 5.2% and suddenly we're at 13.2%. That's essentially 1/8 working age adults that are either unemployed or on disability. 

Think doubling the unemployment rate is too crazy? I had a patient today tell me that in 1965 her first apartment cost her $15/month. It was only a studio she quipped!

 

Lots of DAI fraud.

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 17 2017
Posts: 147
Gaza

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 17 2017
Posts: 147
Noura Erakat

This is one dynamic lady. She is the most intelligent and eloquent spokesperson for the Palestinian people. The US sent over 100 missiles into Syria because of a bogus report of a chemical weapons attack. Since March over 100 Palestinians have been murdered by Israelis. The news have reported "clashes" . That is a sick joke as there is a buffer zone seperating the Israeli sniper from the Palestinians. The buffer is 200 meters at least. This means the Palestinians are clashing with a fence.

Whatever good will and decent reputation the US had has evaporated. The rest of the world has to stand up for the rule of law or they are no better. It is time for another Nurenburg

Time2help's picture
Time2help
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 9 2011
Posts: 2819
Student Protest, University of Geneva

Mohammed Mast's picture
Mohammed Mast
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 17 2017
Posts: 147
WOW

Very powerful

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