Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 8/10 - Next Market Crash Will Not be Televised, Towards An Ecology Of Agriculture

Thursday, August 10, 2017, 10:10 AM

Economy

U.S. Credit-Card Debt Surpasses Record Set at Brink of Crisis (Yoxa)

Outstanding card loans reached $1.02 trillion in June, data from the Federal Reserve show, as lenders including Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. compete to sign up cardholders who may carry balances -- a relatively lucrative business in a prolonged period of low interest rates.

Surface Calm in the S&P 500 Masks a Spate of Blowups (Aaron M.)

For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.2 percent to 2,476.83, the fourth increase in five, while its equal-weight cousin slipped 0.4 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 262.5 points to 22,092.81, closing above 22,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.4 percent to 6,351.564.

Estimating Market Losses at a Speculative Extreme (Aaron M.)

This extreme in median valuations may seem strange. The most reliable market valuation measures we identify (those most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10-12 year total returns) now exceed every point in history except the extreme reached in the single week of the final high March 24, 2000. But it's clear from the chart below that these measures are not beyond 2000 levels like median valuations are.

Record Number Of Officers Leaving Dallas Police Department (thc0655)

To pay for that added cost, City Manager T.C. Broadnax is proposing to slash the number of funded positions in the police department from 3,613 during the 2016-17 budget year, to 3,094 during 2017-18, and 3,144 during 2018-19.

So can the department still respond to emergency calls quickly?

Gold 'could be used in cancer treatment' (lambertad)

Dr Aine McCarthy, Cancer Research UK's senior science information officer, said: "By developing new, better ways of delivering cancer drugs, studies like this have the potential to improve cancer treatment and reduce side effects.

"In particular, it could help improve treatment for brain tumours and other hard-to-treat cancers. The next steps will be to see if this method is safe to use in people, what its long and short-term side effects are, and if it's a better way to treat some cancers."

The Next Market Crash Will Not be Televised (thc0655)

As America has become complacent and dependent on the technology of mathematicians and hucksters versus experienced financial traders who have warned us about the dot-com bust, the real estate bubble, and other insanity in the past, the risks are up proportionately but the crash is envisioned to occur on television like those in the past. Thirty, twenty, and even ten years ago, that was a realistic prospect where all of us watched the circus unfold live with various annoying television personalities explaining that this was just a “gully” or a “burp” or accident which will self-correct because the Central Bankers said so.

Russia Eyes Rapid Middle East Energy Expansion (Michael K.)

The most notable external stimulus for Russia’s Middle Eastern drive will be the tightening of the U.S. sanctions regime, limiting partnerships involving Russian oil companies and Western majors. As all big Russian oil & gas companies have a good relationship with the government (NOCs are tangibly closer than others, though), sanctions could be levied against virtually anyone, even against independents. For instance, it was feared that the U.S. Congress might sanctions LUKOIL’s Romanian Trident project (72 percent share), on which it collaborated with the American PanAtlantic (18 percent).

Study: Philadelphia Tax Makes Soda More Expensive Than Beer (thc0655)

"Soda sales in Philadelphia have also declined since the tax went into effect at the beginning of 2017, threatening the long-run sustainability of the tax," Shupert and Drenkard write. "According to some local distributors and retailers, sales have declined by nearly 50 percent. This is likely primarily due to higher prices, which discourage purchasing beverages in the city."

US federal department is censoring use of term 'climate change', emails reveal (jdargis)

In a separate email to senior employees on 24 January, just days after Trump’s inauguration, Jimmy Bramblett, deputy chief for programs at the NRCS, said: “It has become clear one of the previous administration’s priority is not consistent with that of the incoming administration. Namely, that priority is climate change. Please visit with your staff and make them aware of this shift in perspective within the executive branch.”

Towards an Ecology of Agriculture: An Interview with Steve Gliessman (Eric G.)

While past episodes of A Worldview Apart explored agriculture and ecology, this episode brings the two together. Eric interviews agroecologist Steve Gliessman, professor emeritus at the University of California at Santa Cruz, about the ins and outs of his discipline. They talk about the differences between organic certification and agroecology, about the role of tillage in sustainable agriculture, and about the responsibilities shared by producers and consumers in driving food system change. The interview also explores the role of government policy in food system development, as well as how it relates to the food sovereignty movement in the United States.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 8/9/17

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

6 Comments

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: May 4 2014
Posts: 400
Sanctamonious sanctions?

Michael K.'s referenced article on the energy situation in the Middle East only confirms the influence of commodity pricing when it comes to energy. Shale oil may be the big news today, but all that natural gas produced from "fracked" shale needs to find a home somewhere. Who's kidding who? With crude at $53, why stop pumping?

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/trump-to-leverage-us-natural-gas-exports-against-russia/article35536451/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

"The U.S. is expected to become the world's third-largest exporter of LNG in 2020, just four years after starting up its first export terminal. U.S. exporters have sold most of that gas in long-term contracts, but there are still some volumes on offer, and more export projects on the drawing board."

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5335
That might be a really bad bet...
Uncletommy wrote:

Michael K.'s referenced article on the energy situation in the Middle East only confirms the influence of commodity pricing when it comes to energy. Shale oil may be the big news today, but all that natural gas produced from "fracked" shale needs to find a home somewhere. Who's kidding who? With crude at $53, why stop pumping?

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/trump-to-leverage-us-natural-gas-exports-against-russia/article35536451/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

"The U.S. is expected to become the world's third-largest exporter of LNG in 2020, just four years after starting up its first export terminal. U.S. exporters have sold most of that gas in long-term contracts, but there are still some volumes on offer, and more export projects on the drawing board."

Three facts to ponder here.  

1) As of this moment the US remains a net importer of natural gas (NG).

2) All gains in NG output have come from shale fields.  

3) The combined output of every single shale basin except the Marcellus has been dead flat since 2015.

Unless the Marcellus has a LOT of room yet to run, one story we could gather here is that shale basins have about ten amazing years in them and then...they fizzle.

I really have to wonder about those long-term (10 to 20 year), super high volume export contracts.  What happens if it turns out there isn't the gas available to fulfill both those contracts and domestic demand?  Who wins that trade/contract battle?

The reasons for there not being enough gas could range from simple geology, overly optimistic assessments of supply, to a collapsed financial scheme that can no longer throw endless good money after bad all courtesy of failed central bank policies.

Someday the shale "investors" are going to want to see some cash flow back.  After all, over the long haul wealth is not defined by the price of an asset but rather the stream of cash that it generates and returns.  In the shale business, cash has all been headed one-way; straight into the shale companies.

So far.  

A huge run up in price could change that, but the facts on the ground today suggest that the dreams of being a super power NG exporter may end up being just that; dreams.

Uncletommy's picture
Uncletommy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: May 4 2014
Posts: 400
Gee, Chris; you're always worried about the future

Couldn't agree with you more,Chris. How many resource exploiters really look beyond their "economic" nose? I think Art Berman has given good reasons why NG will start to rise post 2020, if not sooner. Your example of the bigger picture is important to anybody who puts value on their children or grand-children.

But to quoteJ.M. Keynes, " in the long term, we're all going to be dead." Cash(flow) is king!

rjs's picture
rjs
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 8 2009
Posts: 445
cmartenson wrote: I really
cmartenson wrote:

I really have to wonder about those long-term (10 to 20 year), super high volume export contracts.  What happens if it turns out there isn't the gas available to fulfill both those contracts and domestic demand?  Who wins that trade/contract battle?

the exporter, just like in Australia...the Japanese are getting Australian LNG under long term contracts at half the price Aussies are paying for it...

How energy-rich Australia exported its way into an energy crisis - On a sweltering night this February, the world’s No. 2 exporter of liquefied natural gas didn’t have enough energy left to keep its own citizens cool. A nationwide heat wave in Australia drove temperatures above 105 degrees Fahrenheit around the city of Adelaide on the southern coast. As air-conditioning demand soared, regulators called on Pelican Point, a local gas-fueled power station running at half capacity, to crank up. It couldn’t.   The plant’s operator said it wasn’t able to get enough natural gas quickly to run its turbines fully.  At 6:03 p.m., regulators cut power to 90,000 Adelaide homes to prevent a widerblackout.Resource-rich Australia has an energy crisis, one that offers lessons for America as it prepares to vastly increase natural-gas shipments abroad. Australia now exports so much liquefied natural gas, or LNG, it may overtake No. 1 exporter Qatar within several years. It exported 62% of its gas production last year, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Yet its policy makers didn’t ensure enough gas would remain at home. As exports increased from new LNG facilities in eastern Australia, some state governments let aging coal plants close and accelerated a push toward renewable energy for environmental concerns. That left the regions more reliant on gas for power, especially when intermittent sources such as wind and solar weren’t sufficient. Shortages drove domestic gas prices earlier this year in some markets in eastern Australia to as high as $17 per million British thermal units for smaller gas users such as manufacturers. On the spot market, gas prices have gone from below $1 in 2014 to roughly $7 today—...In March, Australia’s largest aluminum smelter cut production and laid off workers because it said it couldn’t secure enough cheap energy. During one blackout last year, some families lost embryos in an in-vitro-fertilization clinic with no backup generation, according to a government-commissioned report. In February, some tuna fishermen watched catches rot because freezers shut off.

more on the US situation here: The Great US Natural Gas Exports Myth (dynamic links provide latest data)



 

 

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 3962
Postal Service calls for pricing hike as losses mount

Brazil likely to raise 2017-18 budget gap goals to 159 billion reais ...

Reuters-18 hours ago
Brazil likely to raise 2017-18 budget gap goals to 159 billion reais: sources ... budget deficit excludes the expenditure to pay interest on the government's debt.
 

Postal Service calls for pricing hike as losses mount

USA TODAY 21h ago
 

Japan's health care is far from free, and ballooning costs could ...

The Japan Times-9 hours ago
Japan's health insurance system is considered “universal,” since it covers everyone in the country, but it is hardly “free” in the sense of having the government ...

Trump's moves are causing health insurance premiums to jump ...

Los Angeles Times-16 hours ago
Actions by the Trump administration are triggering double-digit premium increases on individual health insurance policies purchased by many people, according ...

 

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 2 2010
Posts: 1390
Re: USPS likely to default on $6.9 billion benefits payment

So USPS solution is raise stamp prices yet again even though every time they do this they induce consumers to use less USPS services.   Why not raise the price on the junk mailers?  Why not change the model?

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