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Daily Digest 1/5 - The Top Risks Facing the World, Russia Will Roar In 2017

Thursday, January 5, 2017, 10:50 AM

Economy

The Top Risks Facing the World in 2017 (jdargis)

Every year, Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, releases a report on the top risks facing the globe. Bremmer focused much of his report last year on America's inward turn, a turn that he says is going to be felt tangibly throughout the world in 2017.

Forecasting Intelligence: Review of 2016 (James W.)

My third prediction was that Britain would narrowly vote to leave the European Union (EU) in the Brexit referendum. Whilst the refugee crisis wasn’t as bad as I feared at the beginning of the year, the broader issue of the migration crisis, the question of future Turkish membership and concerns about the impact on jobs and local public services was central to the referendum debate. As it turned out, I was correct in forecasting that these concerns, along with a broader anger over the loss of sovereignty to Brussels, would tip the British electorate to vote for a narrow Leave victory.

Russia Will Roar In 2017 (Tiffany D.)

Russia has been on the outs with the global community since the Crimea crisis — a crisis, as I’ve written before, that the West cast in the wrong light for its own needs. Under the Obama administration, America pressed hard to slap Russia around as punishment for reclaiming Crimea from Ukraine. The U.S. and Europe (largely under pressure from the Obama team) imposed economic sanctions on Russia, prompting Putin to retaliate with his own sanctions.

Thing is, much of Europe was never really fond of the sanctions — and that’s according to the various people I have talked to in Europe and in Russia as part of my travels over the last two years.

The People Who Evangelized for the 401(k) Now Think It’s Made Retirement Much Tougher (jdargis)

In 2017, we know that this historic accident isn’t working out for many people. The Center for Retirement Research currently estimates that about 52 percent of households are “at risk of not having enough to maintain their living standards in retirement” with “the outlook for retiring Baby Boomers and Generation Xers far less sanguine than for current retirees.” The Economic Policy Institute says just under half of households headed by someone between the ages of 32 and 61 have nothing saved for retirement.

The Champions of the 401(k) Lament the Revolution They Started (jdargis)

Herbert Whitehouse was one of the first in the U.S. to suggest workers use a 401(k). His hope in 1981 was that the retirement-savings plan would supplement a company pension that guaranteed payouts for life.

Will Donald Trump Be FDR Or Jimmy Carter? (jdargis)

In an interview with Richard Kreitner in the Nation, Skowronek said he believes we are coming to the end of one of his cycles, a conservative political order that began with Ronald Reagan, continued with George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, and was resisted by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. That leaves Trump as another Carter, who will try and fail to paper over the deep divisions plaguing Republicans. The Trump-as-Carter thesis is obviously comforting to liberals, as a disjunctive Republican presidency presumably means a transformative Democratic one is soon to come. That’s not the only possibility, however. There is a chance—a remote one, to be sure—that Donald Trump will remake American politics.

This “Rogue” Oil & Gas Nation Just Set A Slew Of Output Records (Josh O.)

It’s not just pipeline gas that’s surging either. Russia’s burgeoning LNG exports also saw a 1.1 percent rise during 2016, to 14.69 billion cubic meters, according to government reports this week.

In fact, Russian LNG has been picking up speed even in the past few weeks, with December exports up 10.8 percent, to a total 1.47 billion cubic meters.

We’re Just As Vulnerable To A Dust Bowl Drought As We Were In The 1930s (jdargis)

The researchers simulated a Dust Bowl-style drought on modern crops to see how they’d react, and the results are pretty alarming. The researchers estimate that yield losses would be around 50 percent worse than during the drought of 2012, and that with each degree (Celsius) the temperature rises, yields decrease by another 25 percent. This is a big deal; these are bankruptcy and starvation percentages.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 1/2/17

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

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saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4060
‘Perfect storm’ could lead to historic bursting of bond bubble

‘Perfect storm’ could lead to historic bursting of bond bubble, warns Harvard academic

UK, China, South Africa downgrade calls loom for Moody's

Reuters - ‎2 hours ago‎
LONDON Moody's is likely to make key rating calls on Britain, China and South Africa among others this year as rising political risk and debt levels push the number of countries on a downgrade warning back to a record high. From Europe's Brexit strains ...

Bank of Mexico Sells Dollars as Peso Reaches New Lows

Wall Street Journal-8 minutes ago
... increasing public debt levels that prompted ratings firms to change the sovereign credit outlook to negative and the impact of lower oil prices on the finances of ...

Venezuela's International Reserves Hit 21-Year End Low

Latin American Herald Tribune-20 hours ago
Analysts and journalists that do not keep a copy of Central Bank reserve data, however, are in for a nasty surprise when they visit the bank's website: most ...

£1.5trillion household debt is a terrifying black hole for 11 million Brits

Mirror.co.uk-16 hours ago
Household debt hitting a staggering £1.5-trillion – that's £1,500,000,000,000 – is a terrifying personal finance black hole for far too many families. When 11m ...

Lew: Eliminate the 'dangerous' debt limit

The Hill - ‎18 hours ago‎
The nation's debt limit was suspended as part of a budget deal at the end of 2015, but again takes effect on March 16. At that point, lawmakers will either need to decide to raise the roughly $20 trillion debt limit, or the incoming Treasury secretary ...

Santa Barbara County budget faces surprise problems in new year

Santa Maria Sun-8 hours ago
The county's looking at a rough fiscal year ahead, mostly thanks to an unexpected spike in pension costs for 2017-18. In October, the county Board of Retirement ...

Unsustainable: Marquette County looks at options to reduce its ...

Marquette Mining Journal-Jan 4, 2017
Rising health insurance costs, flat Ad Valorem tax revenue, dark store repayments ... In 2016, the COLA added about $88,000 to the county's pension liability.

 

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4060
CalPERS return rate decision could lead to tax hikes

Treasury to Sell $118 Billion of Debt

Wall Street Journal-20 hours ago
The Treasury Department will auction $118 billion in securities next week, comprising $52 billion in new debt and $66 billion in previously sold debt. Details (all ...

Decades of deficits could be ahead for Canada, federal analysis warns

CBC.ca - ‎19 hours ago‎
They predicted double-digit annual surpluses until 2050-51 — a year Ottawa's balance sheet was projected to finish $220.4 billion in the black. The "federal debt" category that year was instead expected to show assets of $1.7 trillion. Since the fall ...

Portuguese yields rise to highest in almost a year as supply loom...

Reuters - ‎22 hours ago‎
Spain's 10-year bond yield rose to a three-week high after the country auctioned 4.1 billion euros of bonds. France sold about 9.5 billion euros ($9.97 billion) of long-dated debt on Thursday . In a volatile day of trade, yields were also pushed around ...

CalPERS return rate decision could lead to tax hikes

OCRegister-Jan 5, 2017

... increases necessary to manage the retirement deficit, that leaves taxpayers on the hook. Voters will never see a pension

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