Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 11/17 - The Deep History Behind Trump's Rise, What's Next for Gold?

Thursday, November 17, 2016, 8:37 AM

Economy

The Deep History Behind Trump’s Rise (Cornelius9999)

The events that led to Donald Trump’s election started in England in 1975. At a meeting a few months after Margaret Thatcher became leader of the Conservative party, one of her colleagues, or so the story goes, was explaining what he saw as the core beliefs of conservatism. She snapped open her handbag, pulled out a dog-eared book, and slammed it on the table. “This is what we believe,” she said. A political revolution that would sweep the world had begun.

Illinois Pension Funding Ratio Sinks To 37.6% As Unfunded Liabilities Surge To $130 Billion (Adam)

Illinois' unfunded liabilities really started to surge in 2008 due a combination of lower returns on assets and lower corporate bond yields which drive down discount rates used by actuaries resulting in substantial increases in the present value of liability streams. As we've pointed out in the past, given the long duration of pension liabilities, even small swings in discounts can have a material impact on underfunding levels.

The Dollar Crash Is Coming (Tiffany D.)

Let’s look at the impact on the U.S. dollar the last time Congress pulled off a major repatriation “tax holiday” back in 2005. The enabling legislation was called the U.S. Homeland Investment Act, a one-year tax break for big American multinational firms.

At the time, Goldman Sachs estimated the legislation resulted in the repatriation of some $300 billion over the course of the year. And what happened to the dollar?

What's Next for Gold? (Axel M.)

We have argued in the past that for investors to consider any investment, including gold, in their portfolio, it needs to satisfy two conditions: it needs to exhibit low correlation to their existing investments; and there should be an expectation of a positive return. Let’s evaluate the changing investment landscape for gold in the context of the election:

Solution To Dark Matter Proposes That Gravity Is An Illusion (Arthur Robey)

Verlinde’s model uses this connection between thermodynamics (heat, energy and forces) and information through a mathematical method known as the holographic principle. Since the information contained within a region of space depends upon the arrangement of objects within that region, moving the objects can change the entropy within the region. Verlinde demonstrated that this produces an entropic force that acts like gravity. From the basic idea of information entropy, one can derive Einstein’s equations of general relativity exactly.

Permian’s Wolfcamp formation called biggest shale oil field in U.S. (Adam)

“The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that, even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil, there is still the potential to find billions more,” Walter Guidroz, coordinator for the geological survey’s energy resources program, said in the statement.

Oil explorers have been flocking to the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico to tap deposits so rich that they can generate profits even at lower oil prices. A race to grab land in the Permian has been the main driver of a surge of deals in the energy patch and the industry’s main source of good news.

These videos of thousands of dead fish clogging a Long Island canal will haunt your dreams (Adam)

That was the view yesterday at Shinnecock Canal in Hampton Bays, New York. The water was filled with dead floating fish. By now, most of them have probably sunk to the bottom, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation told CBS News. Residents have posted photos and videos on social media — and thank god technology doesn’t allow us to embed smells yet. I wouldn’t be here writing this post. I would be back in the bathroom, reliving my food poisoning nightmares.

China Tells Trump That Climate Change Is No Hoax It Invented (Arthur Robey)

“If you look at the history of climate change negotiations, actually it was initiated by the IPCC with the support of the Republicans during the Reagan and senior Bush administration during the late 1980s,” Liu told reporters during an hour-long briefing.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 11/16/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

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7 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4066
Bank of Japan Surprises With Plan to Buy Unlimited JGBs at Fixed

 

Foreign selling of US Treasuries hits record in September: data

Reuters - ‎16 hours ago‎
China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined for a fourth straight month in September to $1.157 trillion, from $1.185 trillion the previous month. Over the last 12 months, China's holdings have declined by 8 percent. The world's second-largest economy, ...

China Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Decline to Lowest Since 2012

Bloomberg - ‎17 hours ago‎
China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined to the lowest level in four years, as the world's second-largest economy runs down its reserves to support the yuan. The biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt had $1.16 trillion in bonds, notes and ...
 

EU warns Italy, Spain against 2017 spending plans

MarketWatch-Nov 16, 2016

The EU introduced stricter fiscal rules for countries using the euro in 2013 as a response to the sovereign-debt crisis, which had put the future of the eurozone ..

Spanish public debt rises in September

Daily Mail-5 hours ago
MADRID, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Spain's public debt rose 2.8 billion euros ($3 billion) in September from a month earlier to 1.105 trillion euros, Bank of Spain data ...

Italy won't bend budget plan for EU, says Renzi advisor

KFGO - ‎20 hours ago‎
Italy's structural deficit, which excludes one-off items and economic cycle swings in income and spending, has been rising every year since 2014 and is forecast to jump to 2.2 percent in 2017 and then further to 2.4 percent in 2018. That goes clearly ...

EU eyes German spending, seeking euro zone stimulus

Reuters-22 hours ago

The aggregate euro zone deficit has fallen annually since early in the sovereign debt crisis which nearly broke the euro. German-backed EU austerity aimed at .

ECB primed for stimulus boost, if needed: minutes

MarketWatch-2 hours ago
FRANKFURT--European Central Bank policy makers signaled at their last meeting that they were ready to boost their EUR1.7 trillion stimulus again if needed to ...

Brazil recession worsens in Q3, central bank data shows

Reuters-3 hours ago
UPDATE 1-Brazil recession worsens in Q3, central bank data shows ... Brazil's recession deepened in the third quarter, central bank data showed on Thursday, ...

Brazil Police Clash With Rio Austerity Protesters Again

Bloomberg-20 hours ago

Rio is facing a deficit of close to 17.5 billion ($5.1 billion) reais this year, more than two-thirds of which is from the pension system RioPrevidencia. Rio's governor

BOJ acts to curb interest rate spikes following Trump victory

The Japan Times-6 hours ago
... at around zero percent, while leaving unchanged the negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent on a portion of reserve funds held by private banks at the BOJ.

Bank of Japan Surprises With Plan to Buy Unlimited JGBs at Fixed ...

Wall Street Journal-12 hours ago
TOKYO—The Bank of Japan on Thursday offered to buy an unlimited amount ... The move is the first clear sign from the central bank that it intends to take action ...

Federal budget expert says deficit could climb to $1 trillion annually

Portland Business Journal-14 hours ago

“It'll increase government borrowing by about $5 trillion over the next five years ... Collender said folks could be “a little horrified” by the debt he expects Trump to .

Can Proposition 13 survive California's new appetite for taxes?

Los Angeles Times-2 hours ago
Using more realistic investment estimates, the debt is close to $1 trillion. The state must either curb pension costs or increase taxes to cover them. In addition ...

Puerto Rico warns of cash crunch when debt moratorium ends

Casper Star-Tribune Online - ‎19 hours ago‎
The report notes that the island could be up to $3 billion in the red as it faces a $1.3 billion debt payment in February, when a temporary debt moratorium imposed earlier this year expires, and another $934 million in bond payments due from March ...
 

Puerto Rico sees liquidity shortfall as high as $3 bln

Reuters - ‎12 hours ago‎
Puerto Rico's government forecast a liquidity shortfall of as much as $3.036 billion by the end of the fiscal year after new debt payments come due in the early part of 2017, according to a report released on Wednesday. Advisers to the debt-laden U.S ...

Nigerian bond sale falls far short, investors demand higher yield...

Reuters-2 hours ago
Africa's largest economy raised 39 billion naira ($128.21 million) in bonds maturing ... The DMO sold 20 billion naira worth of 2036 debt at 15.94 percent and 14 ...

Rauner, Madigan feud means state's unpaid bills could reach $13.5 ...

Chicago Tribune-15 hours ago
... estimates the state's backlog of unpaid bills will hit a record $13.5 billion by July ... unbalanced budgets with little regard for how it would add to the state's debt ...

Shortfalls grow for the insurance fund protecting millions of pensions

Washington Post - ‎21 hours ago‎
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., which insures private pensions, said it is $58.8 billion short of the cash it needs to cover benefits for multiemployer pension funds that are expected to run out of money within 10 years. That is up from the $52 ...

Multiemployer Pension Program's Deficit Soars to Record High

Bloomberg BNA-3 hours ago
16 — The PBGC, which backstops defined benefit pension plans, has seen its multiemployer plan insurance program's deficit rise by $6.5 billion in the last fiscal ...

Pennsylvania government goes deeper in debt to treasury

abc27-6 hours ago
The state is facing a projected $1.7 billion deficit next year, and the potential that human services programs are also underfunded by hundreds of millions of ...

All landowners could pay fees for stormwater

CBC.ca-3 hours ago

Ontario's municipalities are now facing a $6.8 billion deficit to fix existing stormwater infrastructure. Some municipalities already charge a stormwater levy, ..

CalPERS says town defaulted on pension debt. What's next for tiny ...

Sacramento Bee-16 hours ago
The default means the CalPERS board can move to reduce retirees' benefits in ... City officials have said Loyalton doesn't have enough money to pay the debt.
 

Pension deficit at largest Irish firms surges by 160% - study

RTE.ie - ‎8 hours ago‎
Deficits in the defined benefit pension schemes of the country's largest private and public sector companies surged by more than 160% over the first nine months of the year, according to new research. Analysis by consultants LCP Ireland estimates the ...

How will Lansing-area communities pay looming pension costs?

Lansing State Journal - ‎2 hours ago‎
Lansing, which manages its own pension funds, has about 65% of its $719 million pension liability funded in 2015. The city had nearly 14% of its $442 million retiree health care funded in 2013, ranking as one of the highest in the state for unfunded ...

Arkansas payrolls to face pension-rate rise

Arkansas Online-6 hours ago
"We continue to monitor the unfunded actuarial accrued liability (UAAL) of the pension systems. At this point I see no need to change the system, but we will ...

New Portland police contract will drive up pension costs by at least ...

OregonLive.com-17 hours ago
It's not clear yet how the increased pension costs will affect the city property tax levy that supports the Portland Fire and Police Disability and Retirement Fund.

Faulconer Requests Budget Cuts As San Diego Pension Costs Spike

KPBS-20 hours ago
Pension costs are rising because members of the system are living longer than expected, according to a new analysis from the city's pension fund. The fund ...

 

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 2 2010
Posts: 1429
Silver Chart on Home Page Not Updating

Silver chart on home page has not updated in days.

thc0655's picture
thc0655
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 27 2010
Posts: 1517
The wheels of justice grinding along slowly but surely

https://www.policeone.com/investigations/articles/241433006-Minn-officer-charged-in-Philando-Castile-shooting/

ST. PAUL, Minn. — A Minnesota police officer has been charged with second-degree manslaughter in the killing of a black man in a St. Paul suburb, prosecutors announced Wednesday.

St. Anthony police officer Jeronimo Yanez fatally shot Philando Castile, 32, during a July 6 traffic stop in Falcon Heights. The shooting's gruesome aftermath was streamed live on Facebook by Castile's girlfriend, who was with him in the car along with her young daughter. The woman said Castile was shot several times while reaching for his ID after telling Yanez he had a gun permit and was armed...

Ramsey County Attorney John Choi got the case from investigators in late September and began reviewing the evidence for possible charges. Choi resisted pressure immediately after the shooting to turn the case over to a special prosecutor, but added one to his team to get an outside perspective. He also enlisted the help of national use-of-force consultants.

Choi's office has said a key question in his review was determining whether Yanez was justified in believing deadly force was necessary...

When looking at whether to file charges, authorities must determine if the officer believed he or she, or fellow officers, were in danger in the moment the decision is made to shoot. If the fear of danger is deemed reasonable, charges are typically not filed. To prove a serious charge such as murder, prosecutors must also show that the officer was not just reckless, but had ill intentions.

Undoubtedly, the below incident in which a NM officer is shot and killed by a motorcyclist he has stopped is the kind of thing that had P/O Yanez so skittish about Castile.  Yanez was apparently so nervous about Castile's legally permitted concealed handgun that he started shooting before there was reasonable, objective grounds to believe lethal force was necessary.  He was simply scared out of his wits.  

That's a cognitive understanding of what went down with P/O Yanez and Castile.  Watch the now-deceased NM officer's body cam footage of his death to get an emotional understanding.  

https://www.policeone.com/Officer-Safety/articles/241143006-Body-camera-footage-of-NM-officer-killed-at-traffic-stop-released/

In military combat, the people who are trying to kill you are generally 25 - 400 yards away.  In police work, the person who is trying to kill you is half the time less than 6 FEET away from you and almost always less than 25 feet away, giving the officer 0.2 to 0.9 second to respond effectively.  In that environment officers must learn to control their adrenaline and fear to avoid simply taking a military approach: shooting anything that moves.

TechGuy's picture
TechGuy
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 13 2008
Posts: 367
Re:The Dollar Crash Is Coming

I doubt the dollar is going to crash in the near term. The odds favor that foriegn currencies will crash first. China Yuan has already begun crashing this week has the Chinese gov't has started devaluing it again:

Yuan Set for Biggest Monthly Drop Since August 2015 Devaluation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/yuan-set-for-biggest-m...

If any currency is vulerable to a crash & crisis it would be Japan, that now must print money to keep gov't doors open. Japanese companies have been levering up on real estate prices often using 5 to 1 leverage on assets for new loans to purchase Real estate. I also think the Euro is poised for a big tumble, as sovergn debt is now approaching unsustainable levels, and many large banks in the EU have serious problems. Not a day goes by in the news without a headline about a troubled EU bank (Deutsche bank, Monte Paschi, Santander, etc). It appears that bond rates in the US will continue to rise, which will attract foriegn capital into the US. as investors flee NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) in the EU and Asia. As long as US bonds continue to offer higher rates, capital will continue to remain in the US.

 

locksmithuk's picture
locksmithuk
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 19 2011
Posts: 114
Silver dashboard
KugsCheese wrote:

Silver chart on home page has not updated in days.

 

It's been weeks.

Bankers Slave's picture
Bankers Slave
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 26 2012
Posts: 520
could not find the humour thread!

 

Apologies to dogs and dog owners!

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4066
US high-yield muni bond fund outflows set record

Global Bonds Poised for Biggest Two-Week Loss in Quarter Century

Bloomberg - ‎6 hours ago‎
“We maintain our short position in Treasuries,” said Mohit Kumar, head of rates strategy at Credit Agricole SA's corporate and investment banking unit in London, referring to bets an asset's price will decline. “That said, we don't expect a sustained ...

US high-yield muni bond fund outflows set record

Reuters-14 hours ago
16, with investors dumping the tax-exempt sector as U.S. Treasuries ... GUANGZHOU, China, Nov 18 After paying out billions of dollars in subsidies to promote ...

Share of euro zone sovereign debt with negative yields falls to 41 ...

Reuters-5 hours ago
LONDON Nov 18 The share of euro zone government debt with negative yields has fallen to 41 percent from 45 percent in October, as investors position for ...

Asian Central Banks Struggling to Defend Currencies

Wall Street Journal - ‎1 hour ago‎
As Bank Indonesia took the direct and conventional approach to the problem of a sliding currency by intervening directly in markets to prop it up, central bankers in Malaysia took the more unusual step of trying to clamp down on the offshore futures ...

Bad Loans, Global Uncertainty Force BI to Cut 2017 GDP Growth ...

Jakarta Globe-Nov 17, 2016
... year to cope with bad debt, delaying their capacity to disburse loans to businesses ... The government plans to spend Rp 2,080 trillion ($156 billion) next year, ...

ECB's Draghi hints at more stimulus to come

MarketWatch-6 hours ago
FRANKFURT--The eurozone's economic recovery remains heavily reliant on the European Central Bank's stimulus measures, ECB President Mario Draghi said ...

Treasury Sets Sales of $173 Billion in Debt

Wall Street Journal-17 hours ago

The U.S. Treasury Department will auction $173 billion in securities next week, comprising $88 billion in new debt and $85 billion in previously sold debt. Details ..

South Africa Junk Rating Seen Inevitable, This Year or Next

Bloomberg-16 hours ago
“It might be enough at the moment to avoid an immediate downgrade in December, but if ... The cost of insuring against non-payment of debt for five years using ...

City pensions will cost taxpayers $722M over next 3 years

New York Post-9 hours ago
Taxpayers must pick up a $722 million tab over the next three years to replenish the city's cash-strapped municipal employee pension system. The additional ...

Pace of global debt sales hits record level

Financial Times-11 hours ago
... as companies from Pfizer to MasterCard rush to lock in borrowing costs on fears ... markets settle down”, the higher yields were attracting pension investors.

 

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