Daily Digest

Image by AAC, Flickr Creative Commons

Daily Digest 9/13 - Hostage To A Bull Market, The Time To Hedge Is Now

Tuesday, September 13, 2016, 10:55 AM

Economy

Hostage to a Bull Market (reflector, Thomas C.)

In a deep recession, Mr. Rogoff proposes, the Fed ought not to stop cutting rates when it comes to zero. It should plunge right ahead, to minus 1%, minus 2%, minus 3% and so forth. At one negative rate or another, the theory goes, despoiled bank depositors will stop saving and start spending. According to the worldview of the people who constitute what Mr. Rogoff fraternally calls the “policy community” (who elected them?), the spending will buttress “aggregate demand,” thus restore prosperity.

U.S. Household Income Grew 5.2% in 2015, Breaking Pattern of Stagnation (jdargis)

But the recovery remains incomplete. The median household income is still 1.6 percent lower than in 2007, before the recession. It also remains 2.4 percent lower than the all-time peak reached during the economic boom of the late 1990s.

Murders Are Spiralling Out Of Control In Chicago (Thomas C.)

500 people have been murdered in Chicago this year, more than Los Angeles and New York combined. The number of homicides has hit a 20-year high and the city hasn't experienced a single day without someone being murdered since February of last year. A BBC report on the violence in the Windy City compared the number of deaths there with U.S. war dead in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Gold And U.S. Imported Oil (GE Christenson)

I plotted the approximate expenditures for imported oil by taking the average price for a barrel of crude oil each year and multiplied that price by imported barrels. Excel calculated an exponential curve that shows the huge increases in expenditures as well as the dramatic recent decline since 2011 due to reduced imports and much lower prices.

The Time To Hedge Is Now: Pension Crisis In 2016 And Beyond (Taki T.)

Although the unfunded liabilities problem encompasses the totality of future benefits and welfare commitments that governments cannot afford to honor on today’s budgets and projected returns, the most urgent of those, and the one that has captured the public’s attention, is pensions. On both sides of the Atlantic, fears over an imminent pension crisis are on the rise. And it is not just state-run plans that are at risk: the monetary policy and economic environment of the last years has thrown private pension fund completely off-course as well.

Research Proves Google Manipulates Millions to Favor Clinton (Mark C.)

In this exclusive report, distinguished research psychologist Robert Epstein explains the new study and reviews evidence that Google's search suggestions are biased in favor of Hillary Clinton. He estimates that biased search suggestions might be able to shift as many as 3 million votes in the upcoming presidential election in the US.

Biased search rankings can swing votes and alter opinions, and a new study shows that Google's autocomplete can too. A scientific study I published last year showed that search rankings favoring one candidate can quickly convince undecided voters to vote for that candidate — as many as 80 percent of voters in some demographic groups. My latest research shows that a search engine could also shift votes and change opinions with another powerful tool: autocomplete.

Ray Dalio: There’s a ‘dangerous situation’ in the debt market now (Herman J.)

“There’s only so much you can squeeze out of the debt cycle, and we’re there globally.”

Thieves are stealing catalytic converters out of cars for their precious metals (jdargis)

Most catalytic converters sell for between $20 to $240 each. Repairs usually cost between $500 and $2,300, but the NICB noted that this number can skyrocket because often “vehicles are significantly damaged in the theft process.” One person the LA Times spoke to said an auto repair shop charged $2,700 to replace the stolen catalytic converter on their Prius and build a steel cage around the component to discourage future theft.

Yes, the climate has always changed. This comic shows why that’s no comfort. (Jason C.)

There’s a common line among climate skeptics that "[t]he climate has always changed, so why worry if it’s changing now?" The first half of that sentence is undeniably true. Due to orbital wobbles, volcanic activity, rock weathering, and changes in solar activity, the Earth’s temperature has waxed and waned over the past 4.5 billion years. During the Paleocene it was so warm that crocodiles swam above the Arctic Circle. And 20,000 years ago it was cold enough that multi-meter-thick glaciers covered Montreal.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 9/12/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

12 Comments

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4010
greater risks than ever before in history

Paul Singer warns of mounting risks as central banks turn aggressive

Investors are facing greater risks than ever before in history due to aggressive central bankers who are resorting to unconventional methods to keep interest rates low, according to Paul Singer of Elliott Management........

“With roughly $15 trillion on the major central bank balance sheets, with all of these rates at zero or even crazily below zero, you have a very delicate situation which cannot be solved by a sledgehammer,” Singer said.

Geedard's picture
Geedard
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 13 2014
Posts: 52
Delivering ALPHA - "dangerous times" - "frightening"

Wow...as Bob Dylan famously sang...it seems that "the times they are a changin'"

Check out the speeches from Delivering ALPHA today...Ray Dalio and Tim Geithner were a lot less than positive about the near, middle and far future. "Dangerous times" said Ray Dalio..."frightening" said Tim Geithner.  Everything we read on this site for years is now being voiced openly on mainstream...

It seems that sentiment is really and truly beginning to turn...   Chris's gut feeling seems to be right. 

Time for preppers to double down and step on the gas peddle methinks / wethinks...

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4774
search engine mind control

I really encourage everyone (with a spare 30 minutes) to read the report on selective google search engine results modifications in favor of Hillary.

What's the big deal?

Preferentially eliminating auto-complete "negative results" will end up skewing attitudes towards candidates among undecided voters - undecided voters are 15 times more likely to click on negative auto-complete suggestions.  So if you can selectively remove the negative ones for the undecideds in favor of your candidate (and google absolutely knows who you plan on voting for), you end up swaying them.

Guy who figured this out is a PhD Psych researcher.  What's more, he's voting for hillary so this is not just some hit-piece.

Try typing in:

"hillary clinton is " (making sure to add the "space") for google.  Then do it for bing, and duckduckgo.

"donald trump is " ...

If you follow each of the (4) trump links I got, every one of them is negative.  Even the one that says he's going to win!

EDIT; Holy crap, this is probably why China does not allow google.  That, and google's dossier on each person who uses it, of course.  They want to retain this power for themselves.  Duh.

We have no idea how google might have modified search results for - anything, really.  Anything.  In the back of our minds, we all assume google search results are unbiased.

Mark Cochrane's picture
Mark Cochrane
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: May 24 2011
Posts: 1216
Spot on...

Dave,

You are spot on, that is why I sent the article in. I tried the very things you did. In Google my "Hillary  Clinton is " came up blank for any suggestions. So did several other questions from the article so I think Google was doing some damage control behind the scenes in response to the article yesterday morning.

What ever happened to "don't be evil" as the Google motto? This is not about whichever candidate you want to win, it is about being manipulated by sources that you think you can trust to be accurate and unbiased. This article is about the election but the same logic holds for every issue and product. Whomever or whatever someone at Google chooses to support will be surreptitiously supported. Joseph Goebbels would be so jealous of such a propaganda tool.

I strongly recommend everyone read the article and seriously think about the implications.

Mark

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 13 2011
Posts: 1662
More on search engines guiding the flock

So interesting to see this article discussed by DaveF and Mark C.

Reminds me of A TED talk by Eli Parser discussing the use of search engine "filters" to customize the ranking of our search results.  This is important because hits that are not at the top are rarely noticed.  The algorithm that ranks findings for us largely determines what we see when we look out into the world through the window of a search engine.

He describes 2 different people searching on "Egypt."  One who likes to travel get lists of travel and tourist destinations in Egypt.  The other gets the current political protests and analysis, the hot topic at that time.  Google keeps a file on each person (at least 52 parameters) and one's personal search history.  [Another guy:  "Google knows you better than your wife."]  This file is used to personalize the hit rankings for relevance.

Eli Parser cautions us of the excessive power of the search engine ranking algorithm writer to shape our view of the world.

But this can easily be taken beyond innocent biasing to deliberate guiding.

---------------------

Imagine you are the oligarchy and you want to guide your flock to a certain viewpoint.  Each website could be ranked on its "desirableness" to the goals of the oligarchy.  That score can be used as a part of the ranking algorithm.

Try this:  "Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth."  If you are not known to google as die hard "truther,"  you are likely to get AE911Truth.info first and AE911Truth.org second.  They say exactly the opposite.  The .info website was put up later and urges readers to "take a good class in architecture" (and recommends some) so as to not fall for the foolish fiction that the WTC was demolished by explosives.

So we have a debunking website with a near identical name and an algorithm to guide the newbie to it.

Powerful tools for shaping public thinking.

Michael_Rudmin's picture
Michael_Rudmin
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 25 2014
Posts: 752
Just FYi... duck-duck doesn't duck-duck

Just a point here, having prviously searched "chanterelles" on DDG, ohen I search "velomobiles", itms 1- 8 are velomobiles... item 9 is the golden chanterelle.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4774
google: a campaign advertising spend

Mark-

So here's how they can justify it.  Its a product: a campaign advertising package.  For each person that comes to google and types a given thing, google customizes the search results (and the auto-complete) based on payment by the campaign.  Clinton campaign is charged a nickel every time an "undecided" types "trump is ".

Of course, google makes this offer to the Clinton campaign only.

This is a really powerful advertising (slash mind-control) tool, and it works because google's search algorithm is secret and viewed as non-slanted.

[Google is selling you in aggregate, the searcher, what you think/feel/want - to, perhaps everybody.]

In the old days as a campaign manager, you'd plaster the airwaves with your crappy ads.  Now, you can selectively target undecideds and skew their google search results so that nothing negative appears about YOUR candidate, and there's a wave of negative stuff about your opponent.

After all, why spend money on people who already have their mind made up?  Its those 20% undecideds that will swing the race, and those negative results are the ones they'll click on, at a 15:1 ratio.  Force feed them your negative articles.

Its a rife-shot vs a napalm drop.

Meanwhile all the pro-trump people will see the stuff they want to see, so nobody gets suspicious.

And google knows exactly what the search terms the undecideds are using, because they know exactly who the undecideds are!

In fact, google polling data isn't really polling data - they simply know the answer - if the election were held today, who would win.  They just need to count them.  No margin for error, because the sample size is basically all the voters.

And if you want to shape your campaign's message, what better way than to have your candidate say something, and then utilize the google search terms trending about your candidate to check and see how it plays - in real time!!   Google doesn't provide rank ordering to us peons, but I bet they do if you pay them enough.  Polling data & focus groups are so 1980.  If you aren't using this mechanism, you're just a mutt.

Holy crap.

And SP - yes, I definitely had you guys in mind.  If you are in power, how do you fight against conspiracy theories on the net?  [c.f.:  paper by the same name].  You simply arrange to skew the search engine results for the bulk of the populace.  But for you already-believers, of course, google gives you exactly what you want to see - because they already know who you are, naturally.

This way, everyone is happy.

The only way you find out is by taking your laptop to your friend's house and comparing your search results with his.  Better use your VPN though, just in case they track his IP.

reflector's picture
reflector
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2011
Posts: 264
very interesting srs rocco interview

 

Yuan in IMF SDR Basket Oct 1 will Change World Financial System Forever - Steve St. Angelo Interview

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4774
Armstrong and CNY in SDR

reflector-

Armstrong has some pretty strong opinions on why the contents of the SDR means nothing to nobody.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/will-the-dollar-crash-at-the-end-of-september/

Whatever the IMF stuffs in the SDR (Special Drawing Right), it has no bearing whatsoever on the reserve status of the dollar, which is entirely based upon (1) geopolitical security, (2) political security, (3) depth of the bond and equity markets just for starters. It is total gibberish and honestly not even plausible. All we heard was how the euro was going to end the dollar as the reserve currency. Well, the IMF put that into the SDR. Why is the dollar still the reserve currency?  It is up there with the predictions of YK2 in 2000 to the end of the gold exchanges in New York and London would collapse because China would begin to trade real gold not paper gold in Shanghai. Ya. Good one.

... Bonds can be issued in dollars without permission of the US government anywhere in the world, which is not true for many currencies like the Japanese yen. That is what makes the dollar the reserve currency. Hop on a plane to Moscow or Beijing and go shopping. Pull out a $100 bill and you have no problem. Go to Starbucks in New York City and try to pay with a €10 bill or ¥100 note from China. Good luck. That is the difference with a real reserve currency. That will not change because of some calculation at the IMF. The US government allowed skids of $100 bills to be sent to Russia. It was called the Money Plane. This was even discussed in Congress after exposed.

...

True enough.  When I went to Phnom Penh, I tried to withdraw "local currency" from an ATM and out popped a couple of Franklins!  Now that's a reserve currency.  No RMB, just USD.

Once that stops happening, that's when we lose the reserve currency status.

I think, like many other similar alleged "world changing events", the upcoming change in the SDR will be a nothing-burger.

Eh...was there a trade recommended?

 

Yoxa's picture
Yoxa
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 21 2011
Posts: 251
Advertising in Google
Quote:

Its a product: a campaign advertising package.  For each person that comes to google and types a given thing, google customizes the search results (and the auto-complete) based on payment by the campaign.  Clinton campaign is charged a nickel every time an "undecided" types "trump is ". 

I make my living promoting things in Google and that's not how it works.

Anyone can buy ads on Google, but the organic rankings aren't for sale. The paid ads work like an auction. and you only get charged if someone clicks your ad. You decide the searches where you want your ad to appear, and bid what you're willing to pay for a click. There are many ways to fine-tune a campaign, but that's the essence of it.

In the organic results, many factors influence what you'll see, and it's very common that different people get somewhat different results. Your location is a big factor in many searches, as is your search history and what Google "thinks" you'd be interested in.. Seasonality can be a factor, and also searches among the population at large that seem to be trending. The latter is the biggest influence on Google's auto-suggest feature.

A big factor in what shows up in your searches is the skill of the website developers. Have they built their sites to make it easy for the spiders to crawl all their content and discern what's important? There's no One Big Magic Secret for making Google love your site but many details can make a difference.

Quote:

 selectively target

Yes. I can't speak for politics, but in the commercial realm, skill at targeting makes the difference between an ad campaign that puts money in your wallet or empties it. Savvy targeting is vital to squeeze the most performance out of your ad dollars. 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 4774
a different product

Yoxa-

I totally believe that the "standard commercial product" is exactly as you say - the "come to my website" product.  All the websites are more or less in a constant, never-ending "beauty contest" - I'm the prettiest one, come look at me.

I wasn't talking about that product.  I was talking about a different product, one that is less well known.  This second product is driven and controlled entirely by google.

Its clear that such a second product is in operation in support of Clinton.  The researcher made this clear by his experiments.  What isn't clear is how widely it has been sold, and to whom - besides Clinton, of course.

Such a product works best if the targets are unaware of its existence.  We can call this the "say nasty things about my opponent, while saying nice things about me" product, targeted at undecided voters.  It filters the search results - but only about that particular politician - and rank-orders the search results by "quantity of evil" in the article.

Both this new "political" product, and the standard set of products such as you work with, can co-exist at the same time.

 

saxplayer00o1's picture
saxplayer00o1
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2009
Posts: 4010
US debt ceiling of $20 trillion-plus to be reached soon in next

 

US debt ceiling of $20 trillion-plus to be reached soon in next ...

MarketWatch-18 hours ago
The federal debt limit has been suspended since late 2015, but the law is set to be reinstated on March 16. Immediately the current debt limit of $20.1 trillion will ...

US budget deficit totals $107.1 billion in August

Washington Post - ‎20 hours ago‎
That means the government will have to spend less to finance the debt. CBO projected that deficits over the next decade will be $712 billion lower than it projected in March. That would still add up to $8.57 trillion being added to the national debt ...

BOJ to make negative rates centerpiece of future easing: sources

Reuters - ‎6 hours ago‎
TOKYO The Bank of Japan will consider making negative interest rates the centerpiece of future monetary easing by shifting its prime policy target to interest rates from base money at its review next week, sources familiar with its thinking say. The ...
 

Bank of Japan may cut rates further into negative territory

MarketWatch - ‎16 hours ago‎
Earlier this month, Kuroda acknowledged the downsides of his negative-interest-rate policy, suggesting caution about further reductions. The BOJ governor said negative rates particularly hit the profit of financial institutions, while low long-term ...

Cash under bed better than bonds, says M & G Investments

The Australian - ‎10 hours ago‎
M & G Investments, which manages more than £260 billion ($A460bn) for its customers, of which nearly £160 billion is in fixed-income assets, said the “traditional approach” to investing should be reappraised in the light of negative interest rates ...

Black Swan investor warns of central bank bubble

CNBC-19 hours ago

Central banks have created a bubble in the stock market, which will come down "very, very hard" when it finally prices in a series of Federal Reserve rate hikes, ..

Venezuela Launches $7 Billion Bond Swap to Ease Debt Burden

ABC News-13 hours ago
Venezuela's state-owned oil giant PDVSA is seeking to swap $7 billion in bonds as it struggles to pump the socialist-run economy out of a deep crisis.

There's a $300 Billion Exodus From Money Markets Ahead

Bloomberg-13 hours ago
Funds that hold only government debt will be able to maintain that level. ... outflow from prime-fund investors potentially reaching $200 billion in the next 30 days, ...

Junk-Bond Buyers Persist in Yield Hunt Amid Global Market Spasms

Bloomberg-21 hours ago
Bank of America Corp. expects new junk bond sales this month to reach $20 billion, after $18.5 billion of the debt was sold in August, according to data compiled ...

High-yield defaults swell again as August slowdown was temporary ...

MarketWatch-20 hours ago
There were just $1.7 billion of high-yield defaults in August, the slowest pace since January ... That brings the year-to-date total to $61 billion of debt in default.

Dangers In The Deep: A $40B Time Bomb Threatening Gulf Of ...

Forbes-21 hours ago
... about a $40 billion problem, according to a Debtwire Investigations report. ... to the wildcatters who issued billions of new debt to fund rapid expansion plans.

Brazil Government Won't Let Rio Go Broke As Bailout Seems Likely

Forbes-2 hours ago
15 and Oct. 15 debt payments to foreign lender Credit Suisse. Brasilia won't let Rio default. A decline in oil revenue, high pension costs, and massive debt ...

Health care costs still push Americans into poverty

CBS News-5 hours ago

The Census Bureau had plenty of good news on Tuesday, including a headline-making 5.2 percent increase in household income, a 1.2 percentage point .

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments