“According to various tests of statistical significance, each of these indicators’ track records is significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when assessing whether a pattern is genuine.
However, the differences between the R-squared of the top four or five indicators I studied probably aren’t statistically significant, I was told by Prof. Shiller. That means you’re overreaching if you argue that you should pay more attention to, say, the average household equity allocation than the price/sales ratio.”
Things Fall Apart Pt. 1 (Alex M.)
I don’t want to overstate the case. It bugs me to no end when people say that something is “another Pearl Harbor” or that we’re talking about a “civil war”. You know what’s like Pearl Harbor? Pearl Harbor was like Pearl Harbor. You know what’s like a civil war? Go to Wikipedia and look up Biafra, and then get back to me about how awful it is that Democrats and Republicans are figuratively at each others’ throats, not literally.
“In my opinion it is just as bad as the leak mentions,” the employee wrote, adding that they had asked their manager to be removed from the project because they were uncomfortable with it. Another member of the team, the employee said, had decided to quit Google in large part due to concerns about Dragonfly.
Debt And The Marshmallow Experiment (Phil D.)
Credit cards, mortgages, student loans, HELOCs, car loans, payday loans and Goddamn mattress-financing, it’s a potpourri of foolhardy behavior, consumers, corporations, and governments, all stuffed to the gills with borrowed money.
Somehow, the most important concept to success in life is not taught or even discussed in 13 years of mandated, mind-numbing, government “education”.
Those of us on the front lines of the gig economy were the first to spot and expose its flaws—two months after leaving Uber, I wrote a highly publicized account of my time there, describing the company’s toxic work environment in detail. Now, as Silicon Valley struggles to come to terms with its corrosive underpinnings, a new vein of disquiet has wormed its way into the Slack chats and happy-hour outings of low-level rank-and-file engineers, spurred by a question that seems to drown out everything else: What have we done? It’s a question that I, too, have been forced to grapple with as I notice how my job as a software engineer has changed the nature of work in general—and not necessarily for the better.
“Here we are in this new era where there’s a whole set of unintended societal consequences that are emerging as tech becomes more ubiquitous, and yet, tech companies haven’t caught up with the direct link between the products they have and being able to get ahead of that,” says Paula Goldman, the head of the Tech and Society Solutions Lab, which led the project. “The impetus for the Ethical OS toolkit was exactly that: Here’s a tool that helps you think through these consequences and makes sure what you’re designing is good for the world and good for your longer-term bottom line.”
A typical processed diet looks like this: breakfast – pancakes with syrup, sausage, juice; lunch – ham sandwich with cheese on white bread, potato chips, soda; dinner – cheeseburger, French fries, sweet tea; snack – ice cream. Average intake for this is 2,860 calories, 5,912 milligrams of sodium, 435 grams of carbohydrates, 261 grams of sugar, 87 grams of protein and 105 grams of fat.
The latest spark of concern was the U.S. government’s decision at the weekend to declare sanctions against two Turkish cabinet ministers over the detention of an American pastor. The Trump administration said it was also reviewing Turkey’s duty-free access to the U.S. market, which could affect $1.7 billion of Turkish exports. Bloomberg reported that the US has prepared a broader list of Turkish entities and individuals that could be subject to further sanctions.
The Crypto Market Just Hit a Low for 2018 (Thomas R.)
The rise in the bitcoin dominance rate – an indicator that tracks the percent of the total crypto market capitalization contributed by the leading cryptocurrency – to an eight-month high of 48.6 percent also suggests the investors are venturing out of alternative cryptocurrencies and into bitcoin, and then possibly on to fiat currency.
The falling spread or difference between the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except bitcoin and BTC’s market capitalization is also signaling reduced demand for high-risk alternative cryptocurrencies.
“Inflation has been climbing and wage growth, meanwhile, has been flat as a pancake,” said Laura Rosner, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC in New York. “In a very tight labor market you would expect that workers would negotiate their wages to at least keep up with the cost of living, and the picture tells you that they’re not.”
Tesla already said that carrying cargo between its two factories would be the first use of the Tesla Semi trucks and Musk referred to the automaker’s logistic costs to carry cargo between the two locations as “gigantic”.
Today, one of the Tesla Semi truck prototypes was stopped at the CHP Donner Pass Inspection Center near the border between Nevada and California on the route to Gigafactory 1.
Astronomers have since come to realize the profound importance of this solar wind for our planet and the rest of the Solar System. For example, we now know that a few hundred million years after its formation, the early solar wind accelerated ions in the upper Martian atmosphere to an escape velocity, stripping the young planet of much of its atmosphere over time.
Saudi Arabia has pressed independent energy analysts to alter their estimates of its oil production, people familiar with the matter said, a move that could put it in conflict with other members of the fractious Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
$90 Oil Is A Very Real Possibility (Thomas R.)
There is still a wide range of possibilities for what is set to occur over the next three months in regards to the impact on production and exports. Originally, the Trump administration stated its desire to push Iran’s exports to “zero.” The subsequent spike in oil prices forced them to backtrack quite a bit.
Hothouse Earth is not very hospitable to human life. Hundreds of millions or even a billion or two would probably survive, but the damage to agricultural systems would be so extreme that billions more would die. (The authors don’t say this, of course, but the people who have to think about these contingencies, like the military in the developed countries, know it very well.) What the authors are saying is that global warming driven directly by human emissions of greenhouse gases is only smaller part of the problem. The real threat is the unstoppable natural feedbacks, triggered by the warming that we have caused, that will take us up to the killing temperatures.
Monsanto ordered to pay $289m to terminally ill groundsman who used Roundup weedkiller (Sparky1, Alex M., edelinski)
The company immediately said it would appeal against the decision and tried to reassure consumers – including those using Roundup in Britain – that its weedkiller was safe.
Mr Johnson was seeking $412 million in damages. Jurors awarded him $39 million for his losses and $250 million to punish the company after finding it liable for a design defect and failing to warn of Roundup’s risks. Monsanto said it will appeal.
“Just had a chance to take my first photos of dried-out Central Europe and Germany since a few weeks, and was shocked,” Gerst wrote on Twitter. “What should have been green, is now all brown. Never seen it like this before,” he wrote, posting photos from the International Space Station.
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