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    Daily Digest 6/30 – The Shadow Doctors, Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent?

    by DailyDigest

    Thursday, June 30, 2016, 2:32 PM

Economy

The Recent Rise in Delinquency Rates on Bank Loans Is Shocking (Is a New Banking Crisis Imminent?) (lambertad)

Credit growth was mostly driven by mortgage lending. Mortgages were generously provided by banks, but increasingly to subprime borrowers (subprime referring to their poor credit). Yet these subprime borrowers didn’t pay higher interest rates on their mortgages the moment Alan Greenspan began hiking rates. But as soon as their (promotional) teaser rates resetted, they started “feeling the Alan.” Delinquency rates went through the roof and the U.S. economy into recession.

Federal election 2016: ACT candidates shy about ‘truth pledge’? (ezlxq1949)

“It may be they feel this is unnecessary or it may be they don’t particularly want to commit themselves in writing to some of those high principles but I would say that’s something we have every right to expect them to commit in writing.

“The reason we started this is the view that some politicians think they can get away with any lies they like.”

Brexit: EU leaders say UK cannot have ‘à la carte’ single market (jdargis)

Although there is broad acceptance that Britain needs breathing space to appoint a new prime minister and establish what kind of future deal it hopes for, most members want Brexit under way quickly to contain the risk of Eurosceptic contagion, limit economic instability and allow the EU to move forward with new initiatives on security, growth and jobs.

The Shadow Doctors (jdargis)

In the past five years, the Syrian government has assassinated, bombed, and tortured to death almost seven hundred medical personnel, according to Physicians for Human Rights, an organization that documents attacks on medical care in war zones. (Non-state actors, including isis, have killed twenty-seven.) Recent headlines announced the death of the last pediatrician in Aleppo, the last cardiologist in Hama. A United Nations commission concluded that “government forces deliberately target medical personnel to gain military advantage,” denying treatment to wounded fighters and civilians “as a matter of policy.”

Sovereign Debt – What Could Go Wrong? (GE Christenson)

Given that our short-term markets are currently managed by central banks, High-Frequency-Traders, and governments, I understand that markets, technical analysis, and cycles are distorted and manipulated, but the T-Bond highs have been regular and long-term. A cyclic high in T-Bonds is due in a few months. We’ll see….

Big Oil Faces US$2 Trillion Cash Shortage – Deloitte (Josh O.)

The report was based on a survey of integrated public and listed national companies as well as independent E&Ps and warned that things are not looking particularly good. The rate of well depletion is 7-9 percent annually for both traditional and shale wells, and spending at many of the companies surveyed has been cut to below the necessary minimum that would ensure that this depletion is being offset, England noted.

North America’s Big Energy Goal Is a Cinch (jdargis)

Let’s start with Canada and the United States. Canada is a resources economy: It has vast reserves of stuff people like to use, but not that many people. Thanks to its network of lakes, rivers, streams, and waterfalls, Canada already gets 59 percent of its power from hydroelectric plants. And because Canada’s eastern provinces, where much of the hydro-capacity resides, border U.S. states with large populations, the country has long exported electricity south. In 2014, Canada exported about 10 percent of its electricity production—an amount equal to 1.6 percent of U.S. consumption—across the border. (In the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, the U.S. sends some power to population centers in British Columbia.)

Paris climate agreement plans don’t match Paris agreement goals (jdargis)

So here’s the damage in each scenario. In a pedal-to-the-metal no-policy world, we’re looking at more than 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100. Current policies (also extrapolated into the future) reduce that number to around 3.2 degrees Celsius. The Paris Agreement reduces it further to about 2.5-3.1 degrees Celsius. That’s certainly quite preferable to >4 degrees Celsius, but it’s also much higher than the 2 degrees Celsius limit that the Paris agreement was supposed to implement.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 6/29/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

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20 Comments

  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 3:37pm

    #1

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4501

    Tone Deaf Central Bankers

    Mark Carney is just the latest tone deaf plutocrat to dance across the stage instilling comfort in the monied class and pissing everyone else off.

    The FTSE has already recovered all the Brexit losses but there's a helpful central banker ready to goose everything higher because, well, those two days of declines really upset his drinking buddies a lot.

    These constant focused efforts to drive financial assets ever higher does nothing for the common person, nothing for Main Street, and everything for the speculator classes, who are now the highest paid people in all of human history, but a wide margin.  

    Notice that when a pension goes bust the response from the central bankers is a deafening silence, there's nothing they feel they can or need to do.  But anything that puts a slight wobble in the precious stock market they pounce on instantly in both word and deed.

    In short, they care about the financial elites and everyone else the really couldn't care less about.

    So the anger in the populace, it grows.

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  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 3:42pm

    #2

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 2932

    Column: The monetary bubble to end all bubbles is coming

    House debt hits $1.5 trillion

    The New Daily6 hours ago
    It seems like only yesterday that Australia's housing debt was a trifling $500 billion but it was actually 13 years ago. Since then, it's risen by another trillion, …
     

    Household debt growing at concerning rate, posing possible threats: BOK

    Yonhap News – ‎13 hours ago‎
    According to the BOK report, outstanding household loans extended by non-bank financial institutions that include savings banks and asset management firms came to 407.4 trillion won as of May 20, up 4 percent, or 15.9 trillion won, from the end of 2015.

    Puerto Rico still faces debt default despite rescue law

    Reuters11 hours ago

    NEW YORK Investors in Puerto Rico's debt-burdened economy still face risks of default on some of the island's $70 billion in debt even after the U.S. Congress

     

    Column: The monetary bubble to end all bubbles is coming

    PBS NewsHour19 hours ago
    The government can fund the $1 billion by taxing people. … and outrage, or; Nudge the Bank of Japan to cover the deficit by cranking up the monetary presses?

    ECB No Closer to Inflation Target After Series of Stimulus Measures

    Wall Street Journal – ‎6 hours ago‎
    Eurozone consumer prices were slightly higher on the year in June, but that left the European Central Bank no closer to meeting its inflation target than when it launched the first of a series of stimulus measures intended to achieve that goal two

    Bank of England's Carney sees need for summer stimulus after Brexit shock

    Reuters – ‎18 minutes ago‎
    LONDON, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus into Britain's economy over the summer after the shock of last week's decision by voters to leave the European Union. "In my view, and I am …
     
     

    Taiwan Central Bank Cuts Key Rates

    Wall Street Journal6 hours ago
    Taiwan's central bank cut interest rates for the fourth straight meeting Thursday, taking … that has been battered by China's slowdown and feeble global demand.

    Prices have increased by 14000%-19000% in four years in Venezuela

    Q Costa Rica News22 hours ago
    TODAY VENEZUELA – The economic reality in Venezuela lacks food pricing controls since about three years ago, stated economic analyst Luis Enrique …

    Brazil unemployment stays at record 11.2%

    Yahoo News21 hours ago
    The grim jobs outlook comes as Brazil struggles through its deepest recession in decades, with the economy expected to contract 3.8 percent this year, following …

    Corporate Bond Yields Hit Record Low in Europe After Brexit Vote

    Bloomberg16 hours ago

    Borrowing costs have fallen since the European Central Bank pledged in March to buy … Low yields are a headache for insurers and pension funds, who have

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  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 6:07pm

    #3

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1837

    Silver Now UP $1 in 48 hours

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  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 6:36pm

    #4

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1837

    Naomi Wolf --Government Stages Events to Shape Public Thinking

    Naomi Wolf answers audience questions about whether spy agencies stage events, create pictures and stories to shape public public thinking and policy.

    Absolutely. That is what they do.

    And, it is now *officially legal* for American intelligence agencies to propagandize the American public. So when an event happens it is not crazy to seek additional information and require multiple sources before being sure that it happened as stated. This is not "conspiracy theory." This is realistic living in an age were deception is sophisticated and widely used.

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  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 7:48pm

    #5

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 2932

    Standard & Poor's cuts EU credit rating after British vote

    Standard & Poor's cuts EU credit rating after British vote to leave

    The Guardian – ‎1 hour ago‎
    The European Union has suffered a downgrade of its long-term credit rating following the UK's Brexit vote last week. In a move that will increase the borrowing costs for the 28-member bloc, the credit ratings agency S&P said the EU should see its
     
     

    European Union's Credit Rating Cut by S&P After Brexit Vote

    Bloomberg – ‎7 minutes ago‎
    The European Union had its debt downgraded by S&P Global Ratings as the aftershocks of the U.K. vote to abandon the 28-nation bloc reverberated across global markets. S&P lowered the rating to AA from AA+, citing fiscal concerns for the EU once it

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  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 8:06pm

    #6

    Mark Cochrane

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 1189

    Turning the screws on the UK

    I´d say the EU is opening its own negotiating position to punish the UK and try to intimidate it from going through with BREXIT…

     

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

    EU Trade Commissioner: No trade talks until full Brexit

    The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left.

    "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.

    After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said – meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.

    A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate.

    The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect.

    Ms Malmstrom, the EU Trade Commissioner, underlined that detailed talks to shape the UK's new trading relationship with the EU should not start until after the process of leaving politically, under an Article 50 process lasting up to two years.

    "There are actually two negotiations. First you exit, and then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is," she said.

     

     

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  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 10:01pm

    Reply to #6

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 836

    turning the tap on the UK

    umm… if Europe doesn’t want the 80 s. Scottish dark ales… Could they be perhaps exported to Virginia? I don’t like beer, but only because Scottish dark ales aren’t what is meant….

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  • Thu, Jun 30, 2016 - 11:19pm

    #7
    Uncletommy

    Uncletommy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 03 2014

    Posts: 514

    Chris M. - They have meds for your condition

    Hey Chris, did you just finish reading Dana Foroohar's book?  As for Mark Carney, another Canadian is sucked into the great black hole of vested interests.

    Got rain today and the garden is looking good. Having a delicious salad as we speak. I recommend a bubbly for Canada Day and make it a relaxing 4 day weekend. Cheer up! It will get worse. Perhaps a Scottish dark ale, eh?

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 2:58am

    #8

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 2932

    China factory activity stalls in June, more stimulus expected

    China factory activity stalls in June, more stimulus expected

    The Straits Times10 minutes ago
    BEIJING (REUTERS) – Growth in China's manufacturing sector stalled in June, an official survey showed on Friday (July 1), adding to expectations that Beijing …

    China June factory activity shrinks more than expected to four-month low: Caixin PMI

    Reuters – ‎24 minutes ago‎
    The index has now been below the 50-point neutral level which separates expansion in activity from contraction for 16 straight months, indicating more policy support may be needed to avoid a steeper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

    Japan's May consumer prices mark biggest slide in 3 years

    Nikkei Asian Review38 minutes ago

    TOKYO (Kyodo) — Japan's consumer prices fell 0.4 percent in May from a year … Amid growing uncertainties over the Japanese economy, average monthly .

    Japan's Prices Keep Falling in Challenge to Abe, Kuroda

    Bloomberg1 hour ago
    With a little more than a week until Japan goes to the polls for an upper-house election, a batch of economic data released Friday underscores the challenge …

    UPDATE 1-Japan business mood stagnates on global uncertainties …

    Reuters1 hour ago
    TOKYO, July 1 Japanese manufacturers' confidence was unchanged in June from … Japan's economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year in the first quarter …
    Story image for japan economy from Daily Times

    Japan factory output dives in knock to recovery

    Daily Times1 hour ago
    Japan factory output dives in knock to recovery … "The sharp fall in industrial production in May suggests that the economy slowed in the second quarter …

    Story image for japan economy from Business Insider Australia

    Deflation is back in Japan, and it's only getting stronger

    Business Insider Australia2 hours ago
    The weak price data will do little to dispel the view that the Bank of Japan will deliver additional monetary stimulus to the Japanese economy, perhaps as early …

    Bond Inflation Outlook at 17-Year Low Gives Fed Reason to Delay

    Bloomberg1 minute ago
    The five-year, five-year break-even rate, an index used by the central bank help to guide policy, tumbled to 1.31 percent this week, the lowest level in central …

    BOK chief to hold special briefing on low inflation rise

    Korea Times52 minutes ago
    The head of South Korea's central bank will hold a special press conference this month to explain the reasons for the low consumer price inflation that has …

    Puerto Rico set to register largest default to date

    CNBC (subscription)21 minutes ago
    Puerto Rico is set to register its largest default to date on Friday as $2 billion in debt payments are due to the financially strapped island's creditors.

    Obama quickly signs Puerto Rico rescue bill, says more work ahead

    St. Augustine Record18 minutes ago

    This came as Puerto Rico's governor signed an executive order on Thursday to implement a debt moratorium on more than $1 billion worth of general obligatio

    Venezuela food shortage ignites supermarket raids

    Columbia Daily Herald – ‎21 hours ago‎
    CARACAS, Venezuela — In the darkness the warehouse looks like any other, a metal-roofed hangar next to a clattering overpass, with homeless people sleeping nearby in the shadows. But inside, workers quietly unload black plastic crates filled with …

    Venezuelans storming supermarkets, attacking trucks as food supplies dwindle

    Chicago Tribune – ‎Jun 28, 2016‎
    Exhausted by government-imposed power blackouts, spiraling crime, endless food lines, shortages of medicine and waves of looting and protest, citizens are mobilizing against their leaders. In recent days, Venezuelans lined up to add their names to a

    Rio gets a federal bailout 36 days before Olympics

    WMUR Manchester – ‎4 hours ago‎
    The president of Brazil's federal tourism agency, EMBRATUR, told CNN Thursday the city will have 85,000 police and military officers guarding the city for the games. Other officials say the metro line will be finished a few days before the Olympics begin.

    Brazil Wind at Risk as Weak Economy Crimps Demand, GE Says

    Bloomberg – ‎11 hours ago‎
    The slowdown is the result of Brazil's economic downturn, according to Jerome Pecresse, chief executive officer at GE's renewable energy unit. Financing is drying up, customers aren't paying their bills and government energy auctions, usually the main

    Italy rescues Veneto Banca after EU bailout plea fails

    Financial Times10 hours ago
    An Italian bank bailout fund has taken control of a second lender after Germany rejected a plea for a more sweeping state-funded recapitalisation of the country's …

    Italy may have to recapitalize weak banks directly after stress tests …

    Reuters16 hours ago
    … of bank bailout funds Atlante, which was set up in April to help lenders raise cash and sell bad loans, by 3-5 billion euros ($3.34-5.57 billion) by the summer.

    Italy's Longshot Bank-Bailout Bid Last Chance to Stop Crisis

    Bloomberg – ‎16 hours ago‎
    The two leaders are facing off after economic stagnation in Italy walloped banking profits and drove up bad loans. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said Tuesday that the EU would protect banking systems in Italy and elsewhere from the …

    Banks may need to write off 40-70% of bad loans in infrastructure …

    Hindu Business Line8 hours ago

    Banks may have to write-off 40-70 per cent of bad loan exposure in 240 companies in the steel, construction, power and textile sectors to bring their loan book to .

    The next recession: It's out there somewhere, and we're not ready

    Washington Post16 hours ago
    The theme is “recession preparedness,” as in: We are not at all well prepared for the next recession. Of course, that triggers the reasonable, albeit unanswerable …

     

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 4:25am

    #9

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 2932

    Global Bond Market Surges Most Since 2008 as Growth Outlook Dims

    ECB Said to Weigh Looser QE Rules as Brexit Cuts Asset Pool

    Bloomberg11 hours ago
    … pushed down yields on some sovereign debt too far to meet current criteria, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential.

    Global Bond Market Surges Most Since 2008 as Growth Outlook Dims

    Bloomberg12 hours ago
    Even as yields approach all-time lows, Treasuries remain alluring to investors compared with sovereign debt in countries such as Japan and Switzerland that …

    S&P keeps AA+ rating, stable outlook on United States

    Reuters – ‎7 hours ago‎
    S&P's decision on the U.S. debt rating came the same day the agency downgraded its long-term rating on the European Union by a notch to AA from AA+ following Britain's vote last week to exit the economic bloc, which investors worry could hurt the
     

    "It forecast long-term U.S. potential growth at 2 percent, which is below the 3.5 percent or so seen prior to the crisis.

    "The pace of the U.S. rebound also compares favorably with that of other advanced economies. Indeed, following the UK's decision to leave the EU, this is even more likely to be the case," S&P said.

    S&P stripped United States of its coveted AAA-rating in August 2011 due to its high level of debt and uncertainty about the federal government's ability to manage that debt load.

    Federal debt burden as a share of the economy remained twice its 2007 level, it said on Thursday."

     

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 5:03am

    #10

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    Naomi Wolf

    Green shifting to Yellow meme – if I interpreted that correctly sand_puppy?

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 10:37am

    #11
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 857

    Shady Rock Kelsey

    Tired of waiting, parturition was finished @5am. Bluestem Farms welcomes a Suffolk Punch filly.

     

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 10:49am

    Reply to #11

    pinecarr

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1085

    Congratulations Robie!

    Good news for good news Friday.   Will pictures follow?:)

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 10:58am

    #12

    pinecarr

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1085

    Clinton-Lynch Airport Meeting

    From Greg Hunter's USA WatchDog:

    http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-7-1-16-greg-hunter/

    Attorney General Loretta Lynch, along with the FBI, is investigating the biggest political scandal in American history with Presidential presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton. Allegations include:  a private server that jeopardized national security, charity fraud and bribes paid in donations for favors from Clinton while she was Secretary of State.  Against that backdrop, Lynch took a private meeting with Mrs. Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, on Lynch’s private jet in Phoenix.  We are supposed to believe this was a chance meeting, and we are also supposed to believe they talked about golf and grand babies.  That is preposterous, and I think somebody called a meeting.  It was so important that Lynch put her reputation and credibility on the line.  This was a powerful meeting, and it is impossible to believe that they talked about grand babies and golf when the most explosive political case in U.S. history hangs in the balance in an ongoing FBI criminal investigation. [bold mine]

    And from ZH: "Judicial Watch Demands DOJ Inspector General Probe Into "Scandalous" Lynch-Clinton Meeting"

    The political scandal of the day was the news that on Monday evening (coincidentally just before the Benghazi report was released), Bill Clinton and US Attorney General Loretta Lynch just happened to meet on the tarmac at a Phoenix airport – totally unplanned of course. Clinton saw the attorney general and wanted to say hello, so Clinton boarded Lynch's plane to talk for a bit. Sure, just a quick chat about the weather, his putting stroke, anything except oh, say, an update on what was about to be released on Benghazi, and especially not an update on the ongoing FBI investigation into Hillary.

    "Our conversation was a great deal about his grandchildren. It was primarily social and about our travels. He mentioned the golf he played in Phoenix, and he mentioned travels he'd had in West Virginia. There was no discussion of any matter pending for the department or any matter pending for any other body. There was no discussion of Benghazi, no discussion of the State Department emails, by way of example" Lynch told reporters.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-30/judicial-watch-demands-doj-inspector-general-probe-scandalous-lynch-clinton-meeting

    Wow.  Warm-fuzzy all the way around on the US judiciary system.

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 11:31am

    Reply to #11

    Oliveoilguy

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 520

    Robie

    Happy for you.

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 11:38am

    #13
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 857

    Pictures?

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1809748279258838&set=pcb.1809748755925457&type=3&theater

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 12:17pm

    #14
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 857

    Settled mare has freshened

    I do not know how to move posts. The fillies birth would be "good news".

    Thank you folk for putting up with constant 19th century pastoral references.

     

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 2:07pm

    #15

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    LTG on schedule

    Limits to Growth is on schedule. Collapse likely around 2020. (Robin Westin/Seemorerocks)

    [quote]Climate scientists and others have in the past few years issued a steady stream of analyses showing that without immediate remedial actions, a disastrous future is headed our way. But is it a four-decade-old study that will prove prescient?

    That study, issued in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth, forecast that industrial output would decline early in the 21st century, followed quickly by a rise in death rates due to reduced provision of services and food that would lead to a dramatic decline in world population. To be specific, per capita industrial output was forecast to decline “precipitously” starting in about 2015.

    Well, here we are. Despite years of stagnation following the worst economic crash since the Great Depression, things have not gotten that bad. At least not yet. Although the original authors of The Limits to Growth, led by Donella Meadows, caution against tying their predictions too tightly to a specific year, the actual trends of the past four decades are not far off from the what was predicted by the study’s models. A recent paper examining the original 1972 study goes so far as to say that the study’s predictions are well on course to being borne out…..[/quote]

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 3:06pm

    #16

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    Is it real, or is it Memorex?

    Active shooter drill at Joint Base Andrews causes scare (NWCN)

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  • Fri, Jul 01, 2016 - 9:11pm

    Reply to #13

    pinecarr

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1085

    Can't access pictures...

    Hey Robie-

       When I tried the link you provided to see your pictures, I got a message that they weren't available (or I didn't have access privileges).  I wonder if others were able to access them?

       Enjoy your young 'un!! 🙂

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