• Daily Digest

    Daily Digest 3/23 – The 6 Conditions For A Market Bottom, What Calling in the National Guard Means

    by Daily Digest

    Monday, March 23, 2020, 10:08 AM


Economy

Doug Noland: There’s No New Bubble Coming To Save Us (CleanEnergyFan)

Let’s touch upon prospects for Bubble reflation. There was an abundance of positive spin coming out of the previous bust period. “If only the Fed hadn’t incompetently failed to bail out Lehman, crisis could have – should have – been avoided.” Reckless home lending caused the crisis, and regulators will never tolerate a replay. Prudent “macro-prudential” policies and an abundantly capitalized banking sector ensure stability. From the crisis experience, central bankers learned to move early and aggressively to nip market instability in the bud.

“Stay Defensive… For Now” – Goldman Lays Out The 6 Conditions For A Market Bottom (CleanEnergyFan)

Our latest global forecasts foresee a recession that is likely to end up being worse than not just the more modest global recessions of the early 1990s and 2000s, but also deeper than the early 1980s and the GFC.

Ecuador coronavirus cases increase by over 400 in less than a week, health minister quits (Sparky1)

President Lenin Moreno said on Friday night the government would be offering economic aid to the country’s most vulnerable, including directly giving $60 for two months to families earning less than $400 a month. The government would also partner with the private sector to pride relief, while banks would offering lines of credit to small businesses.

Africa lockdowns begin as coronavirus cases above 1,000 (Sparky1)

The Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority said “emergency and essential” flights are exempt from the ban that starts Monday. An adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari, Bashir Ahmad, said Nigeria also plans to suspend passenger rail services starting then.

Marriott to furlough thousands of corporate jobs in US and abroad (Sparky1)

Marriott Chief Executive Arne Sorenson said in a video message to employees on Thursday that Marriott business is now running about 75% below normal levels, making this period more devastating than any other in the history of the nearly century-old hotel company. He said that the financial impact was worse than the post-Sept. 11, 2001, period and 2008-09 financial crisis combined.

Here’s What Calling in the National Guard Means (Sparky1)

In New Rochelle, N.Y., a suburb of New York City that has been hit hard by the virus, members of the Guard unloaded pancake mix and rice and cleaned public buildings. In West Virginia, they taught emergency workers how to properly use and decontaminate protective equipment.

China central bank calls for stepped-up global policy coordination (Sparky1)

Private-sector analysts are slashing their growth forecasts for China to lows not seen since the Cultural Revolution ended in 1976, with a sharp contraction expected in the first quarter.

“At present, the operation of China’s financial market is generally stable, market expectations are relatively stable, and the space for macro policies and tool reserves are sufficient,” Chen said.

29-year-old Chelan County man learns a painful lesson: Youth doesn’t mean you’re immune to coronavirus (Matt H.)

“Irvin’s story highlights a common, and potentially deadly, misconception about COVID-19. That is, young and healthy people don’t have to worry.

While young adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s may have stronger immune systems to fight the virus, it does not mean they cannot be transmitters of the disease or seriously affected by it.”

US tourists stranded abroad desperate to secure return (Sparky1)

Scruggs and Rustici, both in their 40s and from Nashville, Tennessee, had flown to Peru with plans to hike Machu Picchu’s complex of Inca ruins, but within days after they landed, Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra declared an emergency, ordering the country’s borders closed.

They said they were only given about 24 hours’ notice to leave Peru but couldn’t find a flight. The virus has caused more than 12,000 deaths around the world, but the figure goes up every day as Americans in Morocco, Ecuador and other nations struggle to find a way home.

US colleges scrambled to react to the coronavirus pandemic. Now their very existence is in jeopardy. (Sparky1)

All of those changes could threaten colleges’ existence. Parents and students are demanding refunds for shortened semesters in the dorm. The value and quality of an elite college education is under scrutiny as universities pivot to makeshift online classes. And it’s unclear how students will view colleges once the crisis is over and they’re welcomed back on campuses.

Imports of medical supplies plummet as demand in US soars (Sparky1)

The most recent delivery of medical-grade N95 masks arrived from China about a month ago, on Feb. 19. And as few as 13 shipments of non-medical N95 masks have arrived in the past month — half as many as arrived the same month last year. N95 masks are used in industrial settings, as well as hospitals, and filter out 95% of all airborne particles, including ones too tiny to be blocked by regular masks.

In Panic, Second Amendment Right Not Outmoded After All (thc0655)

Ammoland News is reporting the NICS system is experiencing an “unprecedented volume increase” in the number of background checks being conducted. The result has been a slowdown in the ability of the FBI to complete all of the checks. The story, by editor Duncan Johnson, said the NICS staff experienced a 300 percent increase in requested checks “compared to this same time period in 2019.”

Isolation of families for COVID-19 raises concerns about domestic violence (Sparky1)

According to NCADV, 10 million people every year are physically abused by an intimate partner, and 20,000 calls are placed each day to domestic violence hotlines. Researchers have estimated that between 3.3 million and 10 million children are exposed to adult domestic violence each year, according to the Resource Center on Domestic Violence: Child Protection and Custody, a project of the National Council of Juvenile and Family Court Judges.

‘Terrified’ Package Delivery Employees Are Going to Work Sick (Sparky1)

UPS, FedEx and XPO Logistics are three of the largest shipping and logistics companies in an industry that collectively delivers about 18 trillion dollars’ worth of goods every year. With millions of Americans now on lockdown, home-delivery orders have soared, and the companies have become among the few power sources keeping the lights on in the darkening United States economy. UPS, for example, is one of the main companies that deliver packages for Amazon.

Northern provinces abandon national policy and test health care workers en masse (Tjeerd A.)

‘It seems that in the Netherlands and other countries in Europe, the influenza pandemic plans that were made after the pandemic with the Mexican flu in 2009 were activated, without any clear adjustments being made for a risk such as Sars-1 or now this Sars-CoV -2. That is not an approach of nipping in the bud, but of damping. “We can’t do anything to stop the spread,” is the idea. That is true for the flu virus, but that is – as we see – a completely different scenario. What we have been doing is trying to keep searching and contain for as long as possible ‘

Zillow Group Pauses Home Buying in Zillow Offers in Response to COVID-19 and Market Uncertainty (Sparky1)

Zillow will continue to market and sell homes through Zillow Offers, but will temporarily suspend plans to open additional Zillow Offers markets. To help protect Zillow customers and partners, the company halted open houses for its homes in all markets last week. All Zillow-owned homes include proprietary Zillow 3D Home technology to make virtual home tours easier and Zillow’s local broker and Premier Agent partners offer virtual consultations.

Deutsche Bank: Helicopter Money Will Be “Disastrous” And Will Lead To Hyperinflation, “Buy Gold” (CleanEnergyFan)

Understanding this has very important implications for the policy response to the coronavirus. It should worry us that policymakers and academics think providing massive stimulus is the solution. This is because policymakers appear to be attempting to shift demand back to where it was a couple of months ago, at the same time as holding supply fixed. To put it another way, if the government tries to keep spending at levels before lockdowns began, while at the same time keeping lockdowns in place, there will be simply more money chasing after significantly fewer goods and services. The result of this will be inflation, and a lot of it.

Study: Seeding atmosphere with sulfur dioxide may reduce global warming (Sparky1)

“Most studies focus on a scenario where solar geoengineering offsets all future warming,” lead author Peter Irvine of London-based UCL Earth Sciences said in a press release. “While this reduces overall climate change substantially, we show that in these simulations, it goes too far in some respects, leading to about 9 percent of the land area experiencing greater climate change.”

Gold & Silver

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11 Comments

  • Mon, Mar 23, 2020 - 11:20am

    #1

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2001

    7+

    Fourth Turning update by Jim Quinn

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/03/22/weeks-where-decades-happen/#more-214752

    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

    I’ve been writing about our ongoing crisis for over ten years, so it’s not really a shock to me the shit has finally hit the fan. I certainly didn’t expect a global pandemic to be the catalyst for part two of this Fourth Turning. But, I’m sure most people didn’t see Hitler’s invasion of Poland leading to a world war resulting in 65 million deaths when they were just living their lives in early 1939.

    It was ten years into the last Fourth Turning and the Great Depression was ongoing for average Americans, but the stock market had soared and GDP had been propped up by massive government stimulus and Federal Reserve easy money. Intense nationalism had begun spreading across the globe. Sound familiar? The specific events which catapult the world during Fourth Turnings are different, but the reaction of generations and leaders are eerily similar.

    Image result for nazi invasion of poland

    I’ve felt like nothing happened in the last decade as the Fed and politicians in DC were able to issue tens of trillions in debt to postpone the inevitable consequences of living beyond our means for the last forty years. As my warnings about the future failed to materialize on the timeline I expected, I began to doubt my own reasoning and thought process.

    As the stock market rose 400%, the Fed balance sheet quadrupled to $4.5 trillion, the national debt doubled to $23 trillion, student loan debt tripled to $1.6 trillion, credit card debt reached a new high of $1.1 trillion, auto loans reached a new high of $1.2 trillion, corporate debt surged to a new high of $10 trillion (50% higher than 2008 high), home prices soared above their 2005 bubble highs, and the Fed suppressed interest rates to inflate the everything bubble, I stayed on the sidelines – because I’m a stubborn SOB.

    Those who didn’t stay on the sidelines were the executives of Wall Street Too Big To Trust banks, Boeing, the airlines, oil companies and virtually every mega-corporation in the S&P 500. They used the Fed’s easy money to borrow and repurchase $7 trillion of their own stock over the last ten years. The effect was to propel stock prices and valuations to all-time highs, resulting in obnoxiously outrageous pay packages and bonuses for the egomaniacal greedy CEOs and their toady kiss ass lackeys.

    It also left most mega-corps with mega amounts of debt and no cash on their balance sheets. With the Fed having their back, no need to invest in old fashioned things like new facilities or research and development. Financialization cured everything and enriched the oligarchs. No need to prepare for a downturn, because the Fed had outlawed downturns. Yellen assured us there wouldn’t be another financial crisis in her lifetime. I guess she died in February...

    ...The titans of Wall Street believed the the president’s investment advice propelling the markets to all-time highs in late February, making my assessment appear wrong once again. Then it seemed like decades happened in the last three weeks.

    We exited the eye of the hurricane and have seen our ship of state capsized, as an immense wave of reality has destroyed the delusions of millions and exposed the Fed as a feckless fraud, manned by reckless academics following the orders of a banking cabal and their corporate cronies. All while the corporate media propaganda mouthpieces of the oligarchy use panic, fear and misinformation to lead the masses towards their desired outcome – more governmental control and more wealth and power for the ruling oligarchs...

    ...The Strauss and Howe quote at the beginning of this article points out the new government policies used to address the Crisis are often not well thought out or implemented. But the Grey Champion leaders (Lincoln, FDR, Trump) use their overwhelming authority to ram through whatever policies, laws, or executive orders they believe will achieve their desired outcomes.

    The U.S. Constitution is conveniently ignored when our leaders want something done immediately. Each Fourth Turning has resulted in less freedom and liberty for the average person and more power and control for the Federal government and those who control the Federal government. It is all justified as responding to a crisis created by the very policies they implemented, creating the crisis in the first place. In every case, the citizens are the losers and bankers, corporatists, globalists and bureaucrats are the winners.

    The incompetence and overreach of our government overlords has never been more evident. The worst fears of the supposed “conspiracy theorists” when we were outraged by government thugs flaunting the Fourth Amendment and bursting into citizens homes during the Boston Marathon bombing debacle are now coming to fruition. That test run revealed to those in control they could lockdown an entire city and use paramilitary forces to enforce martial law...

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  • Mon, Mar 23, 2020 - 11:43am

    #2

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    3+

    Thanks thc0655

    Yellen assured us there wouldn’t be another financial crisis in her lifetime. I guess she died in February…

    Lol, good one

    We exited the eye of the hurricane and have seen our ship of state capsized, as an immense wave of reality has destroyed the delusions of millions and exposed the Fed as a feckless fraud, manned by reckless academics following the orders of a banking cabal and their corporate cronies.

    Bingo

    Love your posts!

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  • Mon, Mar 23, 2020 - 12:53pm

    #3
    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2020

    Posts: 81

    Cruise Ship Stats from USA MMWR

    Cruise ships stats from US MMWR

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm?s_cid=mm6912e3_&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM23553

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  • Mon, Mar 23, 2020 - 1:30pm

    #4
    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 908

    Dr Martenson on Fox Biz

    Where was the announcement you would be on or was it last minute scheduling.  Hope this is streamable segment on Fox.

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  • Mon, Mar 23, 2020 - 2:09pm

    #5

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2001

    1+

    On the ground update from Kalifornia ED nurse

    http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/batter-up.html

    ...Last night, two of the senior docs where I was working were discussing why we need to treat Kung Flu patients somewhere else than in the primary medical system.Like designating someplace else, (like regional hospitals - probably those run by the county/state/etc.) as Kung Flu Treatment Centers. Thus saving all other hospitals for the normal ER patient load in this crisis.Hmm. What a great idea.Especially if we implement it before the expected tsunami of serious Kung Flu pneumonia cases swamps us.Data point: Apparently, out of nowhere, the base hospital at a nearby military base was swamped with 100 cases of serious upper respiratory infections and shortness of breath in one night.That's the second secondhand report (sources for both: coworkers with kin in each facility) I have of a local hospital getting swamped. Out of nowhere. Exactly as was described by the medical workers in those videos out of Italy.(People with Kung Flu stay home and cope, until they can't cope no more, because full-blown pneumonia.)Random Data Points:Data point: NYFS is apparently losing more people to Kung Flu per day than Chicago loses to gunfire. Also saw reports that they're running out of ventilators there. If that's so, this is, yet again, a wee bit more than "just the flu".Data point: People are idiots. FL finally closed its beaches; this weekend most of SoCal finally did the same, as hordes of jackholes all went there en masse to escape "stay at home" orders from Governor Gabbin' Nuisance.Data point: National Guard units are starting to pop up here and there, preparing to...what, exactly? Equal time: I haven't seen any activity at the two units nearest me.Data point: several po-po from different agencies reported that in L.A., TPTB expect another riot, and they are taking steps to head it off quickly. Including with the CA NG.With ammunition issued from the start, this time.Data point: After a whole week, people are already chafing under no work, and no leaving the house, and being stuck at home with their own families 24/7...?...What happens, do you suppose, when they run out of food, or money, or patience, or all three?...

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  • Mon, Mar 23, 2020 - 3:48pm

    #6
    Nate

    Nate

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 418

    1+

    Kunstler

    When these convulsions are over, we’ll have to reorganize those real conditions of life very differently in North America. There will still be considerable capital, but not the hocus-pocus Wall Street kind. There will be a lot of places with good-enough soil left ­­­­­– or at least soil that can be nursed back to health – to grow food. There are plenty of well-watered places. We have a marvelous system of navigable rivers, all outfitted with canals connecting them. (The Erie and Champlain Canals that connect the Hudson River estuary to the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence have been kept in immaculate condition, by some miracle of forethought.) Our ancestors moved most of their stuff that way, and so can we.

    We have plenty of human capital: strong backs and agile minds. They just have to be reconditioned off their addictions to canned entertainments, drugs, and the Faustian raptures of techno-narcissism – in other words, we need to get real. Real means recognizing that we’ve crossed over into a new chapter of the human project and that it requires different behavior (the relations with our kind old Karl Marx spoke of.) Mostly that means readjusting our attention back to the people and the place around us, while expecting a whole lot less from distant institutions far away. Gawd knows there is enough to do, if we can get our minds right.

    I doubt that the federal government as we know it can survive its own desperate measures to re-ignite the hologram of rehypothecated promises to pay back all the debt gone bad. Its adjunct, the Federal Reserve, is desperately trying to do just that this morning by promising to buy everything and anything that the markets are puking up before the open. If that seems to do the trick, the ecstatic rush may not last very long. I can say no more about that for the moment because I discovered about five minutes ago that the Internet is down here and I’m going to have to go looking for it now somewhere else nearby to put this blog up.

    Freaky-Deaky

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  • Mon, Mar 23, 2020 - 6:16pm

    #7
    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 908

    4+

    Website Search Function Needs Work

    The website search function needs vast improvement.   Whenever I try to find an article post by keyword it never works.

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  • Tue, Mar 24, 2020 - 7:22am

    #8

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2001

    Inside the military’s plans if COVID19 paralyzes the government.

    Just-for-fun reading, unless you’re writing a novel.

    https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-inside-militarys-top-secret-plans-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878

    Even as President Trump says he tested negative for coronavirus, the COVID-19 pandemic raises the fear that huge swaths of the executive branch or even Congress and the Supreme Court could also be disabled, forcing the implementation of "continuity of government" plans that include evacuating Washington and "devolving" leadership to second-tier officials in remote and quarantined locations.

    But Coronavirus is also new territory, where the military itself is vulnerable and the disaster scenarios being contemplated -- including the possibility of widespread domestic violence as a result of food shortages -- are forcing planners to look at what are called "extraordinary circumstances".

    Above-Top Secret contingency plans already exist for what the military is supposed to do if all the Constitutional successors are incapacitated. Standby orders were issued more than three weeks ago to ready these plans, not just to protect Washington but also to prepare for the possibility of some form of martial law.

    According to new documents and interviews with military experts, the various plans – codenamed Octagon, Freejack and Zodiac – are the underground laws to ensure government continuity. They are so secret that under these extraordinary plans, "devolution" could circumvent the normal Constitutional provisions for government succession, and military commanders could be placed in control around America.

    "We're in new territory," says one senior officer, the entire post-9/11 paradigm of emergency planning thrown out the window. The officer jokes, in the kind of morbid humor characteristic of this slow-moving disaster, that America had better learn who Gen. Terrence J. O'Shaughnessy is...

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  • Tue, Mar 24, 2020 - 7:35am

    #9

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2001

    1+

    Clever way to estimate Chinese Wuhu Flu deaths: cell phone user stats

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

    China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced on March 19 the number of phone users in each province in February. Compared with the previous announcement, which was released on Dec. 18, 2019, for November 2019 data, both cellphone and landline users dropped dramatically. In the same period the year before, the number of users increased.

    The number of cellphone users decreased from 1.600957 billion to 1.579927 billion, a drop of 21.03 million. The number of landline users decreased from 190.83 million to 189.99 million, a drop of 840,000.

    In the previous February, the number increased. According to MIIT, the number of cellphone users increased in February 2019 from 1.5591 billion to 1.5835 billion, which is 24.37 million more. The number of landline users increased from 183.477 million to 190.118 million, which is 6.641 million more.

    According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s population at the end of 2019 was 4.67 million larger than in 2018, reaching 1.40005 billion.

    The 2020 decrease in landline users may be due to the nationwide quarantine in February, during which small businesses were shut down. But the decrease in cellphone users can’t be explained in this way.

    Read the whole thing. Fascinating. (It’s unnerving even for me if the number of dead estimated this way is anything close to accurate.) See if it takes your breath away like it did mine. In my mind, the best confirmation would be the CCP hiding or revising or explaining away this data, and then dumping it in the “memory hole.”

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  • Tue, Mar 24, 2020 - 7:55am

    #10

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2001

    1+

    You’ve always had just two choices

    http://www.woodpilereport.com/

    These are your choices. They always were and they always will be.

    Prepare when no one else is preparing.

    Panic when everyone else is panicking.

    Got food? Ammo? Meds? It's too late now to prepare adequately for the pandemic much less the impending derailment of civilization itself. Preppers were calmly topping off their stashes in early January, at regular prices, in any quantity with lots-o'-choices. They saw the foreshadow of this emergency and acted appropriately. Prepping always looks crazy until the rug gets pulled. Paranoia is a survival tool, panic is not.

    Systems are visibly collapsing. The stock market is out-crashing the 1929 debacle in both speed and depth. "No Admittance" signs are posted at hospitals and needed surgeries are being cancelled. Police aren't responding to anything less then a murder in progress. Cities are opening the prison doors and chasing off the inmates. Food wholesalers were cleaned out in a fortnight and many can't restock enough to matter. Others have stopped answering their phones.

    Guns and ammo are selling at a record rate. Dealers say even anti-gun leftists are buying 'em. No one will say it, but it won't take much scarcity for the perpetual EBT Diversity to go where the food and supplies are. It's just there they'll meet real resistance for the first time in their lives. The suburbs have learned their family freezers are worth more than social posing. Unlike the stock market, price discovery will be utterly reliable when it comes to fried chicken and a six pack.

    Our Open Borders Diversities already clog the ER and get it all for free because you're paying their bills. Activists will choose the most deserving victims and it won't be the Deplorables. Compulsory charity can't be any other way. Tribal loyalty or redemption will be served. Either way, traditional Americans are a problem to be solved and inaction leaves no fingerprints.

    The CDC had one job. Virology. Other countries had reliable test kits ready to go, in sufficient quantity to be useful. The technology is decades old yet the "renowned" CDC managed to botch it. The CDC distributed excuses and promises. N95 masks? Ventilators? Um, no. Maybe eventually, their Top Men are working on it. Somehow they always have plenty of everything to "fight the epidemic of obesity and racism" but not enough to perform their mandate. The CDC is useless and incompetent, an 11 billion dollar scam, benefiting no one except otherwise unemployable social activists.

    Meanwhile, Russia is shipping nine planeloads of medics and surplus equipment and supplies to Italy, including ventilators.

    Natural News reports:

    The battle for Los Angeles is lost. LA County announces no more testing for coronavirus, containment now impossible, 100,000+ may die in LA, prepare for chaos

    The tipping point of containment has long since passed. That’s not even the goal anymore, and the number of infections being reported out of LA will no longer even come close to describing the real situation on the ground there...

    Expect chaos. Expect looting and violence. It's LA, after all, and the gangs are barely kept in check even during good times.

    Over the top? Maybe. But would you be surprised if DC had plans to carpet bomb parts of major cities? Thought not. Reality has outrun our imagination.

    I'm busy outfitting my SUV for extended trips, stuff like aggressive tires all around, another NATO gas can, tailored food and supplies. Trips to where? I don't know. Fishing overnighters maybe, or a getaway if waves of desperados choose this particular hill to pull a Genghis Khan. Probably fishing, because they'd see right away y'gotta be nuts to live out here. I offer myself as evidence.

     

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  • Tue, Mar 24, 2020 - 8:01am

    #11

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    Patriot Act Now The Freedom Act

    Darlin, you don’t have freedom.

    https://youtu.be/4sqYDcZIv2M

     

     

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