Doug Noland: There’s No New Bubble Coming To Save Us (CleanEnergyFan)
Let’s touch upon prospects for Bubble reflation. There was an abundance of positive spin coming out of the previous bust period. “If only the Fed hadn’t incompetently failed to bail out Lehman, crisis could have – should have – been avoided.” Reckless home lending caused the crisis, and regulators will never tolerate a replay. Prudent “macro-prudential” policies and an abundantly capitalized banking sector ensure stability. From the crisis experience, central bankers learned to move early and aggressively to nip market instability in the bud.
Our latest global forecasts foresee a recession that is likely to end up being worse than not just the more modest global recessions of the early 1990s and 2000s, but also deeper than the early 1980s and the GFC.
President Lenin Moreno said on Friday night the government would be offering economic aid to the country’s most vulnerable, including directly giving $60 for two months to families earning less than $400 a month. The government would also partner with the private sector to pride relief, while banks would offering lines of credit to small businesses.
The Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority said “emergency and essential” flights are exempt from the ban that starts Monday. An adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari, Bashir Ahmad, said Nigeria also plans to suspend passenger rail services starting then.
Marriott Chief Executive Arne Sorenson said in a video message to employees on Thursday that Marriott business is now running about 75% below normal levels, making this period more devastating than any other in the history of the nearly century-old hotel company. He said that the financial impact was worse than the post-Sept. 11, 2001, period and 2008-09 financial crisis combined.
In New Rochelle, N.Y., a suburb of New York City that has been hit hard by the virus, members of the Guard unloaded pancake mix and rice and cleaned public buildings. In West Virginia, they taught emergency workers how to properly use and decontaminate protective equipment.
Private-sector analysts are slashing their growth forecasts for China to lows not seen since the Cultural Revolution ended in 1976, with a sharp contraction expected in the first quarter.
“At present, the operation of China’s financial market is generally stable, market expectations are relatively stable, and the space for macro policies and tool reserves are sufficient,” Chen said.
“Irvin’s story highlights a common, and potentially deadly, misconception about COVID-19. That is, young and healthy people don’t have to worry.
While young adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s may have stronger immune systems to fight the virus, it does not mean they cannot be transmitters of the disease or seriously affected by it.”
Scruggs and Rustici, both in their 40s and from Nashville, Tennessee, had flown to Peru with plans to hike Machu Picchu’s complex of Inca ruins, but within days after they landed, Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra declared an emergency, ordering the country’s borders closed.
They said they were only given about 24 hours’ notice to leave Peru but couldn’t find a flight. The virus has caused more than 12,000 deaths around the world, but the figure goes up every day as Americans in Morocco, Ecuador and other nations struggle to find a way home.
All of those changes could threaten colleges’ existence. Parents and students are demanding refunds for shortened semesters in the dorm. The value and quality of an elite college education is under scrutiny as universities pivot to makeshift online classes. And it’s unclear how students will view colleges once the crisis is over and they’re welcomed back on campuses.
The most recent delivery of medical-grade N95 masks arrived from China about a month ago, on Feb. 19. And as few as 13 shipments of non-medical N95 masks have arrived in the past month — half as many as arrived the same month last year. N95 masks are used in industrial settings, as well as hospitals, and filter out 95% of all airborne particles, including ones too tiny to be blocked by regular masks.
Ammoland News is reporting the NICS system is experiencing an “unprecedented volume increase” in the number of background checks being conducted. The result has been a slowdown in the ability of the FBI to complete all of the checks. The story, by editor Duncan Johnson, said the NICS staff experienced a 300 percent increase in requested checks “compared to this same time period in 2019.”
According to NCADV, 10 million people every year are physically abused by an intimate partner, and 20,000 calls are placed each day to domestic violence hotlines. Researchers have estimated that between 3.3 million and 10 million children are exposed to adult domestic violence each year, according to the Resource Center on Domestic Violence: Child Protection and Custody, a project of the National Council of Juvenile and Family Court Judges.
UPS, FedEx and XPO Logistics are three of the largest shipping and logistics companies in an industry that collectively delivers about 18 trillion dollars’ worth of goods every year. With millions of Americans now on lockdown, home-delivery orders have soared, and the companies have become among the few power sources keeping the lights on in the darkening United States economy. UPS, for example, is one of the main companies that deliver packages for Amazon.
‘It seems that in the Netherlands and other countries in Europe, the influenza pandemic plans that were made after the pandemic with the Mexican flu in 2009 were activated, without any clear adjustments being made for a risk such as Sars-1 or now this Sars-CoV -2. That is not an approach of nipping in the bud, but of damping. “We can’t do anything to stop the spread,” is the idea. That is true for the flu virus, but that is – as we see – a completely different scenario. What we have been doing is trying to keep searching and contain for as long as possible ‘
Zillow will continue to market and sell homes through Zillow Offers, but will temporarily suspend plans to open additional Zillow Offers markets. To help protect Zillow customers and partners, the company halted open houses for its homes in all markets last week. All Zillow-owned homes include proprietary Zillow 3D Home technology to make virtual home tours easier and Zillow’s local broker and Premier Agent partners offer virtual consultations.
Understanding this has very important implications for the policy response to the coronavirus. It should worry us that policymakers and academics think providing massive stimulus is the solution. This is because policymakers appear to be attempting to shift demand back to where it was a couple of months ago, at the same time as holding supply fixed. To put it another way, if the government tries to keep spending at levels before lockdowns began, while at the same time keeping lockdowns in place, there will be simply more money chasing after significantly fewer goods and services. The result of this will be inflation, and a lot of it.
“Most studies focus on a scenario where solar geoengineering offsets all future warming,” lead author Peter Irvine of London-based UCL Earth Sciences said in a press release. “While this reduces overall climate change substantially, we show that in these simulations, it goes too far in some respects, leading to about 9 percent of the land area experiencing greater climate change.”
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