“We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures – most notably, large scale social distancing – will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.”
Their assumptions are equivalent to ergodicity, as they consider new infections to be a function of infected fraction and immunity, and not influenced by where in the trajectory of the outbreak they are, distinguishing going up from going down.
How did the U.S. fumble its response to the coronavirus so colossally, even with so much lead time? Why, with the number of diagnosed COVID cases in the U.S. climbing toward 4,000, do we still not have nearly enough tests?
The scientists then investigated how long the virus remained infectious on these surfaces, according to the study that appeared online in the New England Journal of Medicine on Tuesday – a day in which U.S. COVID-19 cases surged past 5,200 and deaths approached 100.
The tests show that when the virus is carried by the droplets released when someone coughs or sneezes, it remains viable, or able to still infect people, in aerosols for at least three hours.
“Effectively, what this tells us is that hospitals should prepare for some pediatric patients because we can’t rule out children altogether,” said Dr. Srinivas Murthy, an associate professor of pediatrics at the University of British Columbia, who was not involved in the study.
Because of reductions in staff, the ACC, which operates out of three shelters and two resource centers in the city, has had to shrink their hours of operation from 12 a day to 8, and will likely soon reduce to 6. And because we’re now staying in our homes unless it’s absolutely necessary to leave, few people are coming in to adopt, even during their opening hours. This has all led to a glut of animals that need somewhere to go, a problem shelters are experiencing across the country. “We want to free up as many kennels as possible,” Hansen said.
Ron Paul: Be Wary Of Over-Reaching Government Responses To Covid-19 (CleanEnergyFan)
The chief fearmonger of the Trump Administration is without a doubt Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health. Fauci is all over the media, serving up outright falsehoods to stir up even more panic. He testified to Congress that the death rate for the coronavirus is ten times that of the seasonal flu, a claim without any scientific basis.
On Face the Nation, Fauci did his best to further damage an already tanking economy by stating, “Right now, personally, myself, I wouldn’t go to a restaurant.”
“We were listening to people, such as President Trump, saying, ‘What’s the fuss, it’s just like the flu,’ and ‘There are only 15 cases, and only one death in the U.S., much fewer than everywhere else, we’re doing great,’” Dr. Nick Jewell said. “But every epidemiologist knew what was coming inexorably toward us.”
Looming Recession Sparks New Oil Sell Off (Michael S.)
Meanwhile, quarantines expanded across Europe as new coronavirus cases multiplied. Banks and consultancies rushed to revise their oil demand forecasts for the year with every one bleaker than the previous one. Expectations are now for billions of barrels daily in lost demand, which is not doing anything for prices but pressuring them further.
Is It OK to Take a Walk? (jdargis)
In Milan, where life in the coronavirus “red zone” amounts to virtual house arrest, residents are still free, if not encouraged, to enjoy a walk or jog “for the sake of outdoor physical activity,” as The Washington Post reported, as long as social distances are respected.
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