Further improvements in the labor market also depend on whether the long-term unemployed — those who have been out of work six months or longer — will successfully transition into new jobs. Pessimists emphasize that high levels of long-term unemployment proved to be an intractable problem through much of Europe over the last 40 years. Yet more recent evidence from the United States — particularly from the early stages of this recovery — makes me more optimistic that we can get the long-term jobless back to work.
“The revolution now is sleeping,” said Maysara, a landowner from the northern Syrian town of Saraqeb who asked to be identified only by his first name for his safety. He organized some of the first residents there to take up arms in 2011, but has recently shifted his focus to helping refugees as he studies Turkish in Antakya and his fighters, 30 in all, reduce their ambitions to guarding their town.
The impact on Russia is broader, because it is much more dependent on German goods and investment than vice versa. Russia is hobbled by economic sanctions for its intervention in Ukraine, the devalued ruble and a severe drop in the price of oil, its main export. Russia is expected to suffer a steep recession next year, while Germany is forecast to grow 1 percent.
“Britain has the earth, and Germany wants it.” Such was Woodrow Wilson’s analysis of the First World War in the summer of 1916, as recorded by one of his advisors. And what about the United States? Before the 1914 war, the great economic potential of the U.S. was suppressed by its ineffective political system, dysfunctional financial system, and uniquely violent racial and labor conflicts. “America was a byword for urban graft, mismanagement and greed-fuelled politics, as much as for growth, production, and profit,” Tooze writes.
“It’s a turning point in the way people perceive OPEC, that this so-called cartel is not really driving prices,” said Jeff Colgan, a professor at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies who researches the geopolitics of energy. “The real story is going to be about the fracking industry. How much pain can North American producers take?”
“We have a very large project that is directly pitted against the oil terminal,” said Brett VandenHeuvel, the executive director of Columbia Riverkeeper, a watchdog group for the river, and an opponent of the oil terminal.
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