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    Daily Digest 12/20 – The War on Cash and Gold, Anyone Concerned About Dow High?

    by DailyDigest

    Tuesday, December 20, 2016, 3:50 PM


German officials explore possible refugee link to ‘act of terrorism’ at Berlin holiday market (jdargis)

Should it turn out that the attacker had been a refugee, Merkel said, this would be “particularly appalling to the many, many Germans who are actively helping refugees every day and to the many people who are indeed needing our protection and are making an effort to integrate in our country.”

How to Make California Great: Secede, With a Little Help From Putin (jdargis)

“California is a much more open, tolerant society, inclusive of immigrants or people of different sexual orientation,” Marinelli said. Born and raised in the U.S., he said he had always considered himself a staunch American patriot, and in his teens imagined “a career of service to the United States.” He gradually came to believe the political changes he wanted could be implemented only in an independent California.

The War on Cash and Then on Gold (Kevin J.)

Any immediate attempt to implement bail-ins and NIRP on a large scale will backfire because, faced with being charged significant sums for the privilege of keeping their money in the bank, savers will simply withdraw their funds and keep them as cash at home, or maybe even invest in precious metals. It is therefore imperative that these escape routes are blocked off.

Interest Rate Turn? (GE Christenson)

Can interest rates go lower? Ask the machines, central banks and algos that control them.

But given the rapid rise since August 2016 it seems increasingly likely that rates will continue to rise from what looks like a generational bottom. They might rise for several decades.

A New Dow High – Anyone Concerned? (Taki T.)

Examine this three decade chart of the ratio of the Dow to Crude Oil. The ratio is near the high end of the range. A correction back to the lower trend channel suggests higher crude oil prices and/or lower Dow. Because the U.S. stock market is overvalued by any number of measures involving price, earnings, book value, ratio to GDP and more, my expectation is the Dow will decline in 2017.

Who Won The 2016 Oil War? (Josh O.)

Saudi Arabia – OPEC’s largest single producer and de facto leader – saw its oil revenues shrink in the past two years to the point of leading to fiscal deficits, a concept unthinkable three years ago. Having recorded fiscal surpluses of 11.2 percent, 12 percent, and 5.8 percent, respectively in 2011, 2012, and 2013, Saudi Arabia has now been running fiscal deficits, which stood at 3.4 percent in 2014 and a massive 15.9 percent last year, figures by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show. This year’s deficit is expected at 13 percent. The Saudis are canceling projects worth billions of dollars, cutting perks for civil servants, and raising fuel prices.

Huge Decline In U.S. Proved Oil And Gas Reserves (Adam)

Proved reserves of crude oil in the U.S. declined by 4.7 billion barrels or 11.8 percent from their year-end 2014 level to 35.2 BBbls at year-end 2015. Natural gas proved reserves decreased 64.5 Tcf to 324.3 Tcf, a 16.6 percent decline.

Solar is top source of new capacity on the US grid in 2016 (jdargis)

Even without that 2GW, solar comes out on top, with 9.5GW of new additions this year. At 8GW, natural gas comes in second place on the EIA’s list, followed by wind at 6.8GW. Thanks to the opening of a new reactor at Watts Bar in Tennessee, nuclear also joins the list for the first time in years, adding 1.1GW of capacity. Combined, wind, nuclear, hydro, and solar account for 68 percent of the new additions, making 2016 a low-carbon year for the US grid. Assuming distributed solar this year is similar to its 2015 levels, the percentage of new non-fossil generation goes up above 70.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 12/19/16

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

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  • Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 4:05pm



    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 13 2008

    Posts: 295

    Re: GigaWatts

    "Even without that 2GW, solar comes out on top, with 9.5GW of new additions this year. At 8GW, natural gas comes in second place on the EIA's list, followed by wind at 6.8GW."

    This is misleading since Nameplate Solar and wind do not reflect actual output. For Solar name plate needs to be divided by 4 since Solar panels only can collect about 5 hours full sun . Actuall Wind power is about 1/3 of named plate capacity. When applying  the output adjustments, NatGas additions (which can produce name plate 24/7/365) is nearly double the output of solar and wind additions.


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  • Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 4:43pm



    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 29 2009

    Posts: 397

    Woo-hoo only 5000 more years to go

    Even worse on the solar story, at that rate of growth in only 5000 more years we can cover what we used in electricity in the US in 2013! 

    No wonder so many people think technology will save us from our predicament.



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