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    Daily Digest 11/15 – World Economy Looking Shaky, Are Oil Markets Overreacting?

    by DailyDigest

    Thursday, November 15, 2018, 3:58 PM


The world economy is looking awfully shaky all of a sudden (Thomas R.)

The uncertainty has sent volatility on the pound to its highest level since January 2017. Analysts at Danske Bank said on a call to clients this morning that if the deal makes it through the cabinet today, then the pound could rise. But “any rally in sterling today would be a selling opportunity,” they said.

Exclusive: China sends written response to U.S. trade reform demands – U.S. government sources (Thomas R.)

Three U.S. government sources told Reuters on Wednesday that China had sent a response to U.S. demands on those and other issues, but gave no further details on its contents. It was unclear if the response contained concessions that would satisfy Trump’s demands for change.

How Google And Amazon Got Away With Not Being Regulated (Adam)

Even if a firm did manage to gain temporary dominance, there was nothing to be afraid of. We were not speaking of the evil monopolists of old. The new firms were instead devoted to spreading sweetness and light, goodwill toward all men—whether access to information (Google), good books for cheap (Amazon), or the building of a global community (Facebook).

Elite Terrified of 1930’s Depression or Weimar Hyperinflation – John Rubino (thc0655)

Nothing demonstrates the “imminent bankruptcy” problem better than the financial obligations of New York City. Rubino says, “They just announced that they have unfunded liabilities for retiree healthcare, just retiree healthcare and not the rest of their pensions, of $100 billion. That’s for a city, not a state or a country, and if you add their unfunded liabilities for their pensions, which is another $50 billion or so, and their official debt, which is $50 billion or so, you get $200 billion that New York City is on the hook for that they have not put money away for. If a private sector company had finances like that, they would be insolvent, and their accountants would force them to say that.”You can tell the same story for cities, states and countries around the world swimming in unrepayable debt. So, what will be done when bond defaults and financial failures begin? Will Trump let it go like the failed debt of Puerto Rico or have massive bailouts?

The Fed Will Continue Tightening Until Everything Breaks (thc0655)

Despite the fact that the Fed keeps raising rates as it tightens the noose around the supposed economic “recovery”, there are still many people out there who refuse to accept that the central bank would deliberately implode the fiscal bubble that it has spent the last ten years inflating. Even today, I still see arguments proclaiming that the Fed will be forced to pull back if stocks fall beyond 15% to 20%. I also see claims that Fed officials like Jerome Powell had “better start looking for another job” because Donald Trump won’t be happy with Fed policies that could cause a crash. This is pure delusion from people who do not understand how the Fed operates.

Silver: Supported by D.C. and The Deep State (GE Christenson)

The ever-expanding debt feeds dollars into circulation. Those dollars levitate stocks, bonds, real estate and/or commodities. Stocks have rallied since 2009, bonds since the early 1980s and real estate has reached bubble territory again in 2018. Commodities have been weaker for five to ten years. The Deep State, Federal Reserve and U.S. Government want rising stock and bond markets because they increase wealth for the political and financial elite. They have created a “borrow, spend, blow a bubble, let it collapse, and rake in the spoils game,” and it will not change easily.

‘Core’ Retail Sales Growth Slowest In 6 Months (Thomas R.)

Following China’s gravely disappointing retail sales growth (as shadow banking credit contracts), US retail sales growth spiked 0.8% MoM (after a revised 0.1% drop in September)

Will Social Security Run Out Before You Retire? Here’s What the Experts Think (Thomas R.)

So you can breathe a sigh of relief — Social Security will be there when you retire. While you may have to pay slightly higher Social Security taxes in the future, or may face a benefits cut, the popularity of Social Security — and the fact there’s a simple fix — suggests lawmakers will likely act before any trust fund shortfall becomes a major issue.

The Banana Republic of Boris Johnson (tmn)

Typically, Johnson refused to be held to account or to accept responsibility for this fiasco. In a scathing report, Margaret Hodge, the former chair of the Commons public accounts committee, said: “I deeply regret that Boris Johnson, the London mayor ultimately responsible for all the decisions and actions taken on the Garden Bridge, refused to co-operate with this review, either in person or in writing and despite several requests.” She also noted that no records were kept of key meetings and discussions – a failure she described as “completely unacceptable when decisions around spending public money are being made”.

Are Oil Markets Overreacting? (Michael S.)

Washington recently granted waivers to eight Iranian oil importers, and global oil demand forecasts suggest that the market could be in for oversupply—both factors that substantially contributed to the dive oil prices took, as did rising U.S. production. It may well be the case that Moscow is not opposed to lower oil prices—as it has indicated earlier as well—as they would eventually come to bite into U.S. shale drillers’ performance. U.S. shale drillers are the biggest production factor that OPEC and Russia cannot control, after all.

Crude Recovery? OPEC Eyes 1.4 Million Bpd Production Cut (Thomas R.)

While al-Falih reiterated that “we need to do whatever it takes to balance the market,” Russia’s official position is ‘wait and see’ and not to rush into hasty decisions. After the Abu Dhabi meeting, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the partners need to continue monitoring the market situation and that they discussed continuing their cooperation into 2019.

California Utility Customers May Be on Hook for Billions in Wildfire Damage (tmn)

Many fires in recent years have been caused by downed power lines serving California’s utilities. State officials have determined that electrical equipment owned by PG&E, including power lines and poles, was responsible for at least 17 of 21 major fires in Northern California last fall. In eight of those cases, they referred the findings to prosecutors over possible violations of state law.

SoCal Fire May Have Ejected “Incredibly Dangerous” Radioactive Particles Into The Atmosphere (Thomas R.)

California officials with the state’s Department of Toxic Substances Control said that as of Friday, November 9, an area of the SSFL site which was scorched by the Woolsey fire posed no danger, stating “Our scientists and toxicologists have reviewed information about the fire’s location and do not believe the fire has caused any releases of hazardous materials that would pose a risk to people exposed to the smoke.”

Climate change has intensified hurricane rainfall, and now we know how much (tmn)

“It’s actually pretty challenging to be able to diagnose how climate change may be influencing tropical cyclones so far,” Patricola said. “There’s a lot of missing data or potentially missing data before the satellite era. Before satellites, a lot of observations were taken by ships, so you can imagine sometimes they would just miss a tropical cyclone.”

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 11/14/18

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

Article suggestions for the Daily Digest can be sent to [email protected]. All suggestions are filtered by the Daily Digest team and preference is given to those that are in alignment with the message of the Crash Course and the "3 Es."

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