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    Daily Digest 11/10 – 2015 Recession Likely, The Rise Of Invisible Unemployment

    by DailyDigest

    Monday, November 10, 2014, 5:21 PM


Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession (jdargis)

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.

Catalans vote in symbolic referendum on independence in defiance of Madrid (jdargis)

After the country’s constitutional court suspended all preparations and campaigning related to the vote last week for the second time, doubt loomed over whether it would take place. Until she stepped into her polling station on Sunday morning, Margarita Roca was not convinced that the referendum would actually happen. “I was a bit worried,” she said. Her apprehension was heightened after Spain’s public prosecutor announced – hours before voting was to begin – an investigation into the use of public buildings to hold the non-binding, informal vote.

The Rise Of Invisible Unemployment (jdargis)

We’re adding lots of jobs in industries with stagnant wages, and a few jobs in industries with rising wages, according to new research out of the Cleveland Fed. “It may seem counterintuitive that wages and salaries are growing the slowest in industries where jobs are growing the fastest, but it actually is not,” writes LaVaughn M. Henry, vice president of the bank’s Cincinnati branch. We’re adding few jobs in goods-producing industries like manufacturing, which have the highest overall post-recession wage growth, and lots of jobs in service-producing industries (e.g. health care, leisure and hospitality, and education), which have the lowest real wage growth.

It’s all over: Bitcoin miner maker HashFast to auction remaining assets (jdargis)

In May 2014, HashFast famously declared “we are not scammers.” Days later, CEO Eduardo deCastro told Ars during an interview: “We are as poor as church mice.” Then HashFast was hit with an “involuntary bankruptcy petition,” a process that eventually resulted in the company filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and now concludes with the firm selling off everything that it owns.

“Last I heard, they have about five bitcoins,” Ray Gallo, one of the lawyers representing creditors trying to get money back from HashFast, told Ars. “I think the company is out of money so I think the final employees resigned. Yes, somebody could buy claims against Barber. I’m not sure those have any value though.”

“If You Like Your Internet”… Obama Calls For Regulation To Keep “Internet Open” (pinecarr)

The FCC is an independent agency, and ultimately this decision is theirs alone. I believe the FCC should create a new set of rules protecting net neutrality and ensuring that neither the cable company nor the phone company will be able to act as a gatekeeper, restricting what you can do or see online. The rules I am asking for are simple, common-sense steps that reflect the Internet you and I use every day, and that some ISPs already observe.

New particle accelerator technology gets high speeds in short distances (jdargis)

However, even routine, lower-energy experiments in places like CERN require more energy than a single rf cavity can provide. The current solution is to use many rf cavities arranged in a straight line, if it is a linear machine such as the one at SLAC, or using the same cavity very many times if it is in a circular machine, such as the LHC. Either solution presents challenges and requires a large machine to fit the many parts needed. This raises the costs. Any technology the can increase the acceleration with smaller parts and without the need for more machinery will make future accelerators more compact.

Global Debt Growth Kept Oil Prices High And Delayed The Bakken “Red Queen” (Evan K.)

The saying is that hindsight (always) provides 20/20 vision. In this post I present a retrospective look at my prediction from 2012 published on The Oil Drum (The “Red Queen” series) where I predicted that Light Tight Oil (LTO) extraction from Bakken in North Dakota would not move much above 0.7 Mb/d. Profitable drilling in Bakken for LTO extraction has been, is and will continue to be dependent on an oil price above a certain threshold, now about $68/Bbl at the wellhead (or around $80/Bbl [WTI]) on a point forward basis.

Climate Tools Seek to Bend Nature’s Path (jdargis)

Dr. Schuiling’s idea is one of several intended to reduce levels of CO2, the main greenhouse gas, so the atmosphere will trap less heat. Other approaches, potentially faster and more doable but riskier, would create the equivalent of a sunshade around the planet by scattering reflective droplets in the stratosphere or spraying seawater to create more clouds over the oceans. Less sunlight reaching the earth’s surface would mean less heat to be trapped, resulting in a quick lowering of temperatures.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 11/7/14

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

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