The World Bank has warned that slowing emerging-market economies were hampering an oil recovery, and prices could sink further in a blow to a “fragile” global economy. Crude oil in 2016 is projected to come in at USD 37 a barrel, down from its October estimate of $51, the World Bank said in a new quarterly report.
“Either we validate the financial asset prices and growth faster, or alternatively we will slip into a global recession with financial disorder,” El-Erian told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box .” He put a timetable of about three years on the outcome.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its forecast for U.S. stocks by 9.1 percent, saying heightened market volatility could damage the broader economy and bring about an earnings recession.
The chance of the U.S. sinking into a full-blown recession now stand at 18%, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists this week. That’s nearly double what the nation’s top economic policymaker predicted only a month ago.
Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele on Tuesday resisted calls — again — to weaken the currency despite a plunge in oil prices that’s slashed revenue in Africa’s biggest crude producer. He stuck to his foreign-exchange restrictions that have led to capital flight, curbed output in the continent’s largest economy and led to the naira dropping to a record low on the black market.
Government officials say the pension system, which costs about 28.5 billion euros a year, is in need of a total overhaul before it faces collapse.
Default risks for a pile of $15tn in Chinese corporate debt are rising to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis as sluggish demand, weak pricing and high leverage sap the dynamism of the country’s most powerful companies.
“There is no question in my mind this year default rates will go beyond the average rates, maybe a lot more,” said Altman, who was speaking at the Turnaround Management Associations’ Annual Altman Luncheon Conference in New York Monday. Altman teaches finance at NYU and is considered a specialist in credit markets.
Venezuelan consumers saw the cost of food lurch upwards by 55.7 percent in the third quarter. Overall, food costs rose a whopping 254.3 percent in 2015 – a figure that easily surpasses wage increases by any measure. Increases of basic food costs disproportionately impact the poor, who typically spend a larger chunk of their income on necessities like staple foods. However, the BCV’s numbers also show the state apparatus as a whole is also bearing a heavy load.
Even before applying any shock scenarios, it found liabilities exceeded assets by about 428 billion euros ($464 billion), or 24 percent of total liabilities, under its common methodology. That deficit ballooned out to 773 billion euros under a severe adverse market scenario that included a fall in asset prices and interest rates, as well as an increase in inflation rates.
Brazil’s deteriorating economy is weighing on foreign investor sentiment as well, with direct investment from abroad shrinking to $75.1 billion last year from $96.9 billion in 2014, the central bank said.
Non-performing loans in Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand are at their highest levels in at least five years, according to data from the nations’ central banks. Net troubled loans rose to 0.8 per cent of all bank assets in Singapore in the third quarter of 2015, the highest for a three-month period since that ending March 2010, official data show.
China’s plan to slash crude steel production capacity could eliminate 400,000 jobs and may fuel social instability, according to the state-run metals industry consultancy.
Ratings firm Standard and Poor’s (S&P) has warned that weak South African economic growth and government bailouts of state-owned companies could see Africa’s most industrialised nation downgraded to junk soon.
In 2015 74 U.S. high yield defaults, totaling $48.3 billion in outstanding bonds, defaulted on their debt, according to Fitch Ratings. This is up sharply from 37 companies with $31.7 billion in outstanding bonds in 2014 and the highest levels seen since 2009.
As ratings agencies sound the alarm that the city could soon default on its debt, the city’s elected officials will consider bankruptcy Tuesday at an emergency council meeting.
A halt in exports would deal a blow to Freeport’s profits and deny the Indonesian government desperately needed revenue from one of the country’s biggest taxpayers. It would also buoy global prices of the metal that have slipped 6 percent so far this year on worries over a glut.
An offering Jan. 20 that attracted the lowest demand in nearly seven years might be a warning sign for buyers who haven’t balked at acquiring all the targeted debt since a March 2009 auction. Robert Stheeman, chief executive officer of Britain’s Debt Management Office, reiterated Monday that he can’t rule out an uncovered auction happening “at some point.”
Obamacare enrollment is lagging far behind what economists had projected, the Congressional Budget Office said in a new report that cuts the total number of customers expected to buy plans on the exchanges from 21 million down to just 13 million this year.
Every month that they hemorrhage cash, people look at it and say, ‘well now if they weren’t able to defend the currency last month, now they’re even weaker’.”
China’s outflows in December increased by almost $50 billion from a month earlier, highlighting the battle facing policy makers trying to hold up the yuan amid the slowdown, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Growth in the world’s second-largest economy is seen dropping further in 2016 from the weakest pace since 1990 last year, damping prospects for exports from countries such as Brazil and South Korea that count China among their biggest trading partners.
We have become accustomed to constantly setting new records for U.S. net worth every quarter. Even with slow economic growth, the U.S. has experienced a record-breaking total net worth every quarter since 2012. That string was broken in the third quarter of 2015, according to the recent Flow of Funds section from the Financial Accounts of the United States report by the Federal Reserve.
China’s total bond issuance jumped to 22.3 trillion yuan (S$4.85 trillion) in 2015, up 87.5 per cent from the previous year, official figures, driven by a new debt-swap programme introduced last year and strong corporate issuance.
Singapore’s industrial production in December suffered its biggest slump in eight months on a year-on-year basis, raising the prospect of the government revising down fourth-quarter economic growth from its initial estimate.
China’s imports of gold from Hong Kong surged 67 percent to the highest level in more than two years in December as stock market turmoil and anticipation of a further weakening in the nation’s currency spurred demand for a haven.
Hungary’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged for a sixth month, as policy makers said they’re ready to consider more unconventional monetary easing if needed to combat lower-than-forecast inflation and slowing economic growth.
BoJ officials see room to increase the pace of their asset purchases from Y80tn a year, but worry that if they do so while also ruling out negative interest rates, markets will believe they have run out of options.
ECB policy makers have less than seven weeks until a March 10 meeting when they’ll decide whether their 1.5 trillion-euro ($1.6 trillion) bond-purchase plan and negative interest rates are enough to meet their inflation goal of just under 2 percent. With slumping oil costs weighing on consumer prices that are already close to stagnating, Draghi is trying to convince investors that the central bank remains willing to act if needed.
Europe’s ATMs worked overtime in 2015. A record 1.08 trillion euros ($1.17 trillion) of banknotes were in circulation, almost double the value 10 years ago, according to data compiled by the European Central Bank. That’s a counterargument to some bankers who say that electronic forms of cash will replace paper money sooner rather than later.
The won led declines in Asian currencies after data showed South Korea’s economy slowed and global investors pulled money from the region’s stocks as a drop in oil prices deterred risk-taking.
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