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    Covid-19: Is The Worst Behind Us?

    Reason to hope? Yes. Can we let our guard down now? Absolutely not.
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, June 26, 2020, 8:29 AM

Data is increasingly suggesting that the first wave of covid-19 in a country (or state) is the worst. The most people get infected during that initial period, as expected with a virus with an R0 this high.

Many US states are still in their first waves, especially those in the South and West seeing re-surging infections. The battle there remains focused on preventing things from getting out of control and overwhelming the medical system.

But it’s possible that previously hard hit areas like New York, Italy and Spain may now have sufficient immunity to avoid a second wave. It’s too soon to know for certain, but if true, this will be very welcome news.

Similarly encouraging is that we now have a better handle medically on how to treat covid patients successfully with early intervention (Tocilizumab, Anakina and, yes, HCQ+). So further outbreaks can hopefully quelled earlier and with fewer mortalities.

Reason to hope? Yes. Can we let our guard down now? Absolutely not.

YOUR VOICE NEEDED! If you haven’t yet taken our new covid-19 survey, please do so now by clicking here.

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68 Comments

  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 8:59am

    #1
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

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    I truy hope things have turned...

    Chris, respectfully: would of, could of is too easy. Even easier is to say: If Dr, Fauci had not sponsored and allowed the development of this Virus to be easier to enter the human form then NONE of this ever happened and the world would never have heard if this bloody mess of the honey badger Virus. Why the world hasn't called for his head is beyond me, he's the top dog and must be raked through the coals. Nothing in my life has saddened me more than having this SS type science still in the world these days. Yes, it's going on by all Super Powers, yes, it should stop and what a time to use supposed good intentions and use it to scream to the world that this manufacturing of deadly Viruses and Diseases must stop now! It truly has been the greatest eye opener and disappointment in my life. All this shit ends for me when I go into the woods and control everything I can so I know the world is going to be terrific. Be safe. Peace

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 9:21am

    #2

    Mark_BC

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    Mark_BC said:

    Just a note, for the survey if you choose "not in the US" as your state it doesn't progress to the next page whereas if you choose a US state it does.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 10:24am

    #3
    Martin Lachapelle

    Martin Lachapelle

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    Scenario “B”?

    After watching this video, did you suddenly switch to “Scenario B”?

     

    I have to admit this does sound plausible… Keep in mind I’m not ready to abandon all caution, and start going to crowded restaurants and concerts anytime soon.

     

    To be the devil’s advocate on the Penn State study, as well as the antibody testing of the 3,000 people in New York done in April (https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html):

    • What was the sensitivity and specificity of the antibody testing of those 3,000 people?
    • When they analyzed each state’s ILI cases, what criteria exactly did they use to rule which ones were in “excess” of the seasonal baseline levels? If they went by the sheer number of ILI cases, did they account for the fact that in March when everyone was terrified about the Covid, and that people were rushing to the clinic or doctor for any kind of symptom – no matter how small?  In other words, a lot of people suddenly turning hypochondriac, but were all those extra visits counting as “extra ILIs”?

     

    Having said that, for argument’s sake let us assume that the study is 100% correct, and for every known case, there are 86 others that were infected, recovered, and wasn’t even aware they had it or didn’t report it…

     

    I did a spreadsheet using the Worldometers data on a state-by-state basis.  I’ve also added a column which calculates an estimate of percentage infected – based on the total cases per 1M, and multiplying that by 87.  Any percentages that came over 100% I just capped at 100%.  Yes, I realize this is a crude analysis, and the “87x” number is high at the beginning, and would lower as more people get infected.  Also, it could vary from state to state depending on a lot of factors (NPIs).

     

    However, the trend of daily new cases do seem to correlate with the amount of people already infected.  The states with a higher percentage of people that already have been infected (ie. New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Maryland) seem to have the worse behind them, while the states that haven’t been hit as hard yet (Arizona, Texas, California, Georgia, Oklahoma) are the ones that are seeing a huge uptick in cases right now…

     

    In the end, the spikes may not necessarily be because the states seeing huge spikes are being “reckless”, but it could very well be because Covid’s running its course through them (unfortunately with grim consequences).

     

    However, if we’re indeed in “Scenario B”, there’s a big light at the end of this tunnel!  Covid could very well be on its way out sooner.

     

    I guess time will tell…

     

    Anyway, Chris, I hope you follow up with this Penn State study in your next video.  Keep up the good work!

    Crude Covid Analysis by State - Per Capita Cases vs New Case Trends

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 10:26am

    Steve

    Steve

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    You can't completely escape, not event in the woods.

    planfortomorrow, watch out for those ticks while you are in the woods...I'm thinking they may be carrying a lab enhanced illness, too.  Just saying...

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 10:38am

    #5
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Arizona Stupidity

    I stand by my conviction that Amerikaans are not very intelligent.

    98 IQ is the average. This means there are quite a few who have IQ's less than that.

    Unfortunately those people are the most vociferous.

    City councilman in Scottsdale mimics George Floyd by saying at an anti mask rally "I can't breathe" . If past elections are any indication he is well on his way to the White House.

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/scottsdale/2020/06/24/scottsdale-councilman-leads-protest-against-mask-mandates/3245724001/

     

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 10:46am

    #6
    tbp

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    Low vitamin D + HB19 = Covid

    Unintelligent is not getting your vitamin D up to healthy levels (far above official recommendations of above 20 ng/ml, you want it at >60 ng/ml), in which case HB-19 could even kill you. Above 60 ng/ml I bet you hardly even notice it (I know at least 5 people, plus myself, who believe we had it and we're aware of our vitamin D levels and other relevant health status factors). That's an even more relevant factor than wearing masks.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 10:49am

    #7

    David Huang

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    A truly passive greenhouse

    Thanks Chris for another great video packed full of data.  Let's hope the optimistic parts turn out to be true!

    I thought I'd share this here where more of our community might see it, esp. those who may be moving out of the cities and into areas where they can do more serious gardening.  Paul Wheaton, who was in this Featured Voices podcast here at Peak Prosperity a while back, is doing a new kickstarter to fund a project seeking to build and try out design ideas for a truly passive greenhouse intended to work even in a Montana winter.  It is planned to operate without any supplemental energy inputs.  The intention is also to make it without using a ton of industrial products we may not have access to in the future, and would have high energy footprints regardless.  I guess it will be predominantly round log timbers and dirt.  I'm sure some glass and such will be involved, but there is not even going to be a fan.  He and his team aim to make a video of the process.  Right now there is some discussion of creating a stretch goal that would fund adding a bunch of data sensors to allow them to really track the performance of this, and what design aspects are working best.  I do hope they do this as the hard data is nice to have, which I imagine most readers here appreciate!  I do find it ironic though that if they add the sensors then some electricity will be needed to run them even if it isn't needed for the greenhouse itself.

    Anyway, like most of his kickstarters there is a large community of permaculture oriented people supporting it with tons of rewards for support levels as little as $1.  I suspect many of these rewards and the project itself would interest those here looking to get there homestead in order as best as possible before the 3E's start tightening their grip even stronger.

    If anyone is interested here is a link to the Truly Passive Greenhouse kickstarter.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 10:58am

    Oliveoilguy

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    IQ

    MM....A friend told me that she thought my IQ was close to room temperature. Do you think that she meant that as a compliment?

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 11:32am

    Oliveoilguy

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    Earth Tubes and Greenhouse heating

    I just read over the proposal for the totally passive greenhouse. There is an assumption on temperature that needs to be questioned. First they say that underground soil temp in Northern Idaho is 50 degrees. Probably not. Underground temp is derived from the average annual temp, which in the whole state of Idaho is 45.75 degrees ....I would assume slightly colder in the North. The second assumption is that 6 feet down you reach a stable temperature that is not changed by topside swings. Probably not true.

    When I was hired to install an Earth Tube system to moderate temperature in 2 shipping containers that I buried 10’ below ground....I consulted some geotechnical guys and they told me that the distance underground to achieve stable temp. Is about 25’.  The person I was working for would not respect the data and insisted on going ahead with the project. I was advocating against my self-interest and trying to abandon the earth tube part of the  project. We already had the containers in the ground....welded together as one unit. The owner insisted that we do the earth tubes. I ran 400 lineal feet of 10” diameter tube from 16’ of depth at the containers in a downhill direction so that condensation would flow away from the containers....It never worked as far a moderating the temperature.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 11:50am

    #10

    Quercus bicolor

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    New York and Scenario B

    If scenario B applies, New York City and the surrounding suburban counties are at herd immunity.  The larger metro areas upstate are 1/2 way plus or minus a bit and the rural areas are not there yet.

    Here in the Albany area, mask wearing seems to be falling out of favor at private social gatherings and meetings that are ramping up again.  In stores, compliance is still fairly good.  There should be some uptick in cases in the next 1-3 weeks if we are not yet at herd immunity.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 12:42pm

    #11
    summitday113

    summitday113

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    Mandating nursing homes admit COVID positive patients killed a lot of people

    ONE thing alone would have made the death rate lower: If certain state governors (Looking at YOU, Cuomo) had not mandated that nursing homes admit COVID positive patients.

    So imagine how much lower the death rate would have been if all the other measures PLUS actually trying to keep COVID out of nursing homes had been done

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 12:50pm

    #12

    Snydeman

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    Data

    Well, Chris has always maintained he'll change his views if the data changes, so we should be prepared for that. The operative question is whether the data in this new study bears peer-review and scrutiny or not.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 1:31pm

    David Huang

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    Earth temperatures

    Interesting info Oliveoilguy.  I suppose that is part of why this proposed greenhouse is an experiment, though I suspect they believe all their assumptions will prove true.  I really hope they can expand the project to include lots of data monitoring on the different parts to see what really does happen.

    I do have an underground, earth bermed art studio I made many years ago hoping to tap into that stabilizing earth temperature.  It works to some degree, keeping it cooler in the summer and preventing it from freezing in the winter (in MI).  The winter temps inside usually hover around 44 degrees F.  Not exactly cozy, but as noted it never freezes.

    A couple years ago I also made a greenhouse off the end of one building and in the process did a half berm up all the walls all around the greenhouse and building.  So it is partially buried.  This does moderate the temps, but it will freeze in the greenhouse.  I should also note I don't do anything to heat the greenhouse either beyond the sun shining in.  I've thought about playing with earthtubes but am too close to the water line to really dig down more.  I don't really get crops from it year around, though it probably could keep things like kale alive, but not growing.  Usually my kale leaves are gone by the depths of winter.  However, if I do have the remnants of a plant left come spring it is bursting forth with greens way before anything else in my outdoor gardens.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 2:08pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Relevance

    I guess we all get to decide for OURSELVES what is relevant.

    I choose to think since we live among large groups of people (most of us anyway) , and it has been undeniably demonstrated that wearing a mask greatly reduces the spread and makes us all safer.

    Of course there are some who choose to believe what is relevant is their own personal wants needs and desires. They tend to believe that there is no reason to think of anyone but themselves.

    I get it

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 2:16pm

    #15
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Morons on Parade

    Well you just can't make this stuff up.

    Sheriffs across the country are refusing to enforce mask laws. The really sad thing is there really should not have to be a law for people to do something to protect their community. Interestingly most of the sheriffs are white and republican and the Governors are democrat.

    I have a bug out country should I need it. This is the end of empire and it is just starting to get ugly. I will have a seat far away and watch with some interest.

    https://www.opb.org/news/article/washington-state-mask-order-county-sheriff-response/

    He says the funniest thing "don't be sheep".

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 2:24pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    HaHa

    It depends on What room and what her IQ was. I need more data. lol

    For the record I have stated before that the IQ of PP members is far above average. Unfortunately there are not enough people here to make a statistical difference.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 2:26pm

    #17
    vshelford

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    a note of caution

    This will indeed be good news if so, BUT, is it yet proven that once you've had it, you're immune?  There seems to be some doubt about that.  Also, there's the slight matter of the more virulent strain Chris talked about in his previous video.  On the positive side, the improving record of treatments is very hopeful - I like that even better than the ever-elusive and politically explosive vaccine prospect.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 2:43pm

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    IQ far above average?

    Hi Mohammed,

    Although I agree with, and learn from most of what you post, I’m not sure about your IQ statement. The commonality I see, in my limited vision, is a combination of critical thinking and empathy. It is my experience that to develop these “skill”, IQ does not play a big role, experiences in life do. Sometimes one captures a tiny, but sparkling, glimpse of the life of a poster. In those cases I think I almost always discern some emotional richness that cannot be accounted for by IQ alone.

    Grts, Dave

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 2:57pm

    Redneck Engineer

    Redneck Engineer

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    Redneck Engineer said:

    Re: IQ @ room temp: depends on the units... C, F, or K.

    🙂

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 2:58pm

    #20
    yagasjai

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    Scenerio B not Supported by Logic- per CM 3-26-20- what's changed?

    I had to go back to the video from March 26th which was where Chris outlined Scenerio A and Scenerio B, to refresh my memory as to why he thought Scenerio B was not likely. The logic of exponentials, and what is likely to show up (or not show up) in the testing, was one point. The other point was that data from places like South Korea, where they did extensive testing, did not bear out that tons of people had already gotten it. And watching it again, I realize we were assuming Scenerio A, kind of the way we assume the precautionary principle, that you take the path that minimizes harm until it is proven that those measures are not necessary. So it's very interesting to see that there is possible evidence surfacing that shows Scenerio B may be correct. Although I would like someone to explain, then, why testing data from places like South Korea hasn't backed that up better? Are the tests way less accurate than we thought?

    If the US government knew that it was Scenerio B all along, would that explain the lack of urgency around testing and PPE for health care workers? If so, why wouldn't they just tell us that their strategy is to let it burn through the population? Or are those who have been assuming Scenerio B just getting lucky that it is possibly working out that way?

    I appreciated Chris's comment that the handling of this epidemic in the US makes me nervous for how we might handle more complex prediciments.

     

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 3:00pm

    drbrucedale

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    Or degrees Rankine-fellow engineer here

    Or degrees Rankine (F + 460)...every one is a super genius.  Love it. 🙂

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 4:43pm

    #22

    Barbara

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    Taleb on no masks idiots

    As usual Taleb has a spot on critique of current linear thinking.

    https://medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade-7de897b517b7

     

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 4:55pm

    #23
    TWalker5

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    Inherent Population Health Differences

    While I completely agree that our response here in the USA could have been much better, I posit that a primary factor in our well above average HB death rate is the fact that our population is the fattest, unhealthiest, and most drug dependent in the world. Yet, I have not heard a peep from anyone in authority recognizing that fact, much less suggesting that improving the “terrain” will make us more resistant to this virus and any others that may arise.

    T.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 5:42pm

    #24
    vshelford

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    question about "waves"

    Is the suggestion that we may have got past the worst, based on the idea that we have immunity once infected?  I'm just remembering that 1) the 1918 pandemic second wave was hugely worse that the first, and 2) there appeared to be a sort of double action infection process going on in Wuhan, with some people just suddenly dropping in the street - presumably because of prior severe damage from the first run.  I realize that the 1918 pandemic was a flu, so it was somewhat seasonal, but I don't know if the second wave included a double dose effect too.  Anyone else have any better information on this?  And of course, there's the mutation effect too.

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 7:01pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    DaveDD

    Yes you have a point. There is more to the equation than just IQ. I don't think anyone has yet been able to cultivate critical thinking or empathy in our education system. I was totally blessed , though did not realize it fully at the time , that I did not attend public schools.

    I do believe it takes a certain level of intelligence to use logic to arrive at a course of action.

    Your point is well taken. I will note in the future when commenting on intelligence that i am using it as a shorthand Raison d' etre for the inexplicable (by any measure) behavior of not only not wearing a mask but being blatantly militant.

    Thanks for the input. It got me thinking

     

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 7:45pm

    DaveDD

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    Waves

    Hi vshelford,

    First of all, here are some links

    - A short overview about the Spanish flu. Worth reading as some aspects are very similar to the current situation (source). Main takeaway imo: a viral pandemic uncovers everything that is amiss in a society, e.g., institutional racism in 1918.

    - This article discusses possible explanations for its mortality, e.g., cytokine storm, antibody dependent enhancement. Additionally it gives an overview of the odd “W” shaped age dependent mortality (source). This article is longer and somewhat technical. Main takeaway imo: too long ago to really know why. But one could conclude that some precautions against cytokine storm might come in handy...

    Last but not least, independent from all predictions of pundits,

    - Is the probability of, say, an antibody dependent enhanced second wave zero?

    -If so: why take any action.

    -If not, what are your acceptable costs wrt a reasonable preparation (some supplements etc), and do you accept that these costs might be “losses” in case there will not be a second wave?

    -Everyone has his or hers own “sweet” spot: I personally like a “fire and forget” convex action. Reasonable preparation against reasonable costs, and spending the rest of my time on other positive activities i.o worrying that there might be a second wave...If it doesn’t hit, hardly any money is lost. If it hits, I have done what I deem reasonable and responsible to weather this, and we can possibly be of some assistance to friends and neighbors who are either financially incapable to prepare, or incapable of making rational choices concerning an uncertain nearby future.

    Grts, Dave

     

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 9:25pm

    #27

    nickbert

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    Mongolia: an example of good Covid-19 response

    Here's an article detailing Mongolia's response to the pandemic, and it meshes well with my experience here so far:

    COVID Underdogs: Mongolia - The best COVID-19 response in the world

    https://medium.com/@indica/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2

     

    While the article is more emotional than I care for (understandable though), the examples they give of what Mongolia has done and is doing are correct. I can attest to the Mongolian authorities first instinct is to over-react at the first sign of Covid-19. The hospital in Ulaanbaatar (the capital) my wife works in has had two false alarms, and both times they locked down the hospital and people in it until they had better information (the last time they had police closing off the streets surrounding the hospital).

    All the cases here have been imported, and all the Mongolians being repatriated go into full quarantine (3 weeks I believe). The closest we came to a local outbreak was months ago when a French expat showed symptoms five days or so after arriving in country. Unfortunately he didn't follow self-isolation orders after arrival, but fortunately he did not spread it to anyone else despite having contact with over a hundred people at his work and in public (perhaps the mask-wearing both by him and the public helped here?).

    We've got over 200 cases that were brought in, and so far something over 160 have recovered (some of them in their 60's or older) with no deaths. I'm not sure the exact treatment regimen they use, but they do say that Mongolian traditional medicine is used in addition to standard medical treatment (I admit I have little idea what that involves but suspect it's mostly dietary and tea-based).

    So the downside and inconvenience to all this... the local economy has taken a big hit (though arguably less so than the US or most of Europe), masks in public are mandatory, and international travel is effectively shut down. While from a philosophical standpoint I do not favor making mask-wearing in public mandatory under threat of gov't enforcement, I DO recognize the societal benefit during a pandemic and I personally think that wearing masks in crowds and close contact with strangers is simple common sense (that we should be doing regardless of gov't mandate or position). Lockdown on int'l travel is the hardest for us, as I had plans to visit family in the US both this summer and for Xmas, and neither looks like they will happen now. Mongolia has been making a handful of special flights each month taking out foreigners who want to leave and then repatriating expat Mongolians, but anyone leaving has no near-term guarantee they'll be able to come back. Even foreigners with residency like myself will not be allowed back in while this state of emergency exists.

    But then there's the upside, which is much bigger... with no local outbreaks (knock on wood), the economy is not suffering as much as it would under lockdowns like the US & Europe has experienced. Most restaurants and businesses are open with no or minor restrictions (though movie theaters & bars still are closed). We have children that are free to play outside in the playgrounds and parks. The country was able to hold its election this past week without any problems or issues. Travel in-country is unrestricted, and Mongolians are free to do their usual summer road trips, camping, and vacations. And the lack of an outbreak here actually allowed Mongolia to provide some small help to other countries, like when it very recently donated PPE to the United States of all places (the Navajo Nation, specifically). It's pretty much like Chris described in his pandemic checklist... restrict external exposure into your country and have everyone wear masks in crowded areas or around strangers, and everyday life can get back to some semblance of normalcy!  🙂

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 9:39pm

    nickbert

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    Bug out countries

    Mohammed Mast -

    Just be careful with that assumption that you'll be able to get to your bug-out country in question in the future. Here in Mongolia they've got international travel totally locked down. There thousands of expat Mongolians waiting to come back, but with only a handful of special flights each month to take Mongolians back there are still many stuck where they are. And foreigners they're not allowing in AT ALL for the time being, even those like me with valid residency.

    Not saying this will happen for you, but just be aware it is a very real possibility. Especially as some countries place more restrictions on travel to/from countries like the US experiencing surges in cases...

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  • Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - 10:25pm

    Base12

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    New Data?

    Snydeman,

    This information is not new.  I posted the same conclusion two months ago on this website based of New York's antibody tests.  It was obvious the real problem was the speed of spread and not a spectacularly high fatality rate. https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/the-honey-badgers-real-superpower/

    Now Chris needs to catch up on the ramifications of this fact.  Look at states that have had a distinct 1st wave.  Notice there has not been a second wave anywhere regardless of how quickly or how far the state was opened up.  All the states spiking now never had a 1st wave.

    The next thing for everyone to catch up on is encounter density.  https://www.unacast.com/post/rounding-out-the-social-distancing-scoreboard

    There are huge swaths of every state where the baseline encounter density is drastically lower than someone in a crowded city.  It is not physically possible for what happened in NYC or what is happening in Houston now to happen there.  Everyone can go to work and the grocery store maskless, hug their mother, shake hands, play sports and still keep the spread of COVID-19 to a manageable level.

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 6:23am

    Snydeman

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    Ok, but

    All very interesting and informative, however I will wait for scientific data/studies to prove your theory (or confirm the data in the new study Chris refers to) before I break out the party ribbons. Especially since this is kinda his field, and because none of the big academic institutes around the globe are on board with that data. I’ll remain cautiously optimistic not not lean too far over my handlebars just yet.

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 7:51am

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Manageable Level

    My personal manageable level is ZERO SC2. We could be there by now if the boobs "managing " the situation had gotten their collective heads out of their collective asses. Also if people would have paid attention and taken their own steps to stop the spread.

    There is far to emphasis on numbers and far too little on human beings. If we accept the fact that fatality is not the be all and end all then one can look at the numbers in light of the cost to human health. It appears that SC2 causes significant damage to almost every organ in the body. This damage might be permanent.

    The grand kids might have been able to enjoy a few more years of Paw Paw and Maw Maw.

    All this talk about numbers and fatality and numbers is fine unless you are one of the numbers. Sweden is a prime example of a country sacrificing its older population to continue life as "normal"

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 11:09am

    Base12

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    There is other data

    I was excited about noticing something before it came out in a paper, but came across a little strong.  I'll dial it back, nobody likes a braggart.

    There is a substantial amount of corroborating evidence.  Dozens of sera-logical and antibody studies suggested a higher infection rate than reported.  They were being used to insinuate a lower fatality rate, but a higher infection rate, and thus faster spread is required for the lower fatality rate to be possible.  It is a different side of the same coin.  Also, numerous unexplained spikes in fatalities have been used to suggest a higher number of COVID fatalities.  But this information also needs a number of unreported infections, and a higher infection rate than reported.  So, together, both support a faster spread regardless of what the final IFR is.

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 11:35am

    Base12

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    Zero?

    It took the world a decade of intense effort to eradicate smallpox, with a vaccine.  Are you willing to keep this up for a decade?  Should it be the world's priority to eliminate COVID?  What about malaria, HIV/AIDS, malnutrition, or all the other maladies that kill hundreds of thousands of poor people around the world.  Is it right to isolate poor countries from the world if they don't eliminate COVID?

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 11:42am

    #34
    tbp

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    COVID19 = Vit.D deficiency (almost); HB19 causes permanent damage, or is it nutrient deficiencies?

    @vshelford
    This will indeed be good news if so, BUT, is it yet proven that once you've had it, you're immune? There seems to be some doubt about that.

    This is an oversimplified question. If your vitamin D levels are even lower now than during your first exposure (after being locked inside without getting any sunshine and not supplementing with quantities above at least >5000 IU daily; even 40000 IU daily is ok for a week), then you'll get really sick and might even die. But if your health state is the same or better, then your acquired immunity will be 'usable'. In other words, lockdowns will make you much more vulnerable if you don't know anything about health, and your immune system will be even more incompetent than before. So any acquired immunity won't work if your immune system lacks the necessary building blocks, and you could potentially even (in the worst case scenario) experience ADE upon re-exposure to (significant amounts of) the pathogen.

    Regarding the 1918 flu, more than 90%, close to 100%, died from bacterial co-infections, in a time before antibacterials.

     

    @Mohammed Mast
    It appears that SC2 causes significant damage to almost every organ in the body. This damage might be permanent.

    It may appear that way because you aren't factoring in nutrient deficiencies and thus immune system incompetence. Could you build a house if you're missing essential components like bricks or cement or trusses?

    The few people that get 'mystery' ailments after mild symptoms, like the 24yo Israeli, don't you think these are the cases of extreme nutrient deficiencies? In some cases the doctors are the level of dumb where no recommendation happens of nutrient supplementation (even just a multivitamin).

    The reported cases of young people, like the 30-year-old who suffered "permanent" heart damage (rarely is anything biochemical permanent especially when you're that young), or the 35-year-old who died in ICU (both recently mentioned by Chris Martenson in his videos), may have confounding factors not accounted for, such as severe vitamin D deficiency or malnutrition from a long-term vegan diet (which maybe even the doctor believes is a healthy diet). "No comorbidities" doesn't include any of these factors, yet they are more significant than most defined medical conditions, particularly in young people. What mainstream doctors believe is "very healthy" is often the opposite, because most of them haven't taken it upon themselves to learn about food and nutrition, fully buying into the pre-programmed drug-based "one-size-fits-all" paradigm they were given in medical school.

    Why would the virus have those effects on a tiny number of young people but not the vast majority, if it's not due to some nutrient-related factor overlooked by doctors? The same odd/rare cases happen also with other respiratory infections (here's an extreme example of a 20-year-old without recognized pre-existing conditions dying a few days after contracting influenza). I think it's very likely they had/have several deficiencies such as that of vitamin D, zinc, magnesium, calcium, B12, other B vitamins (probably folate/B9, thiamine/B1, and/or pyridoxine/B6), selenium, vitamin A, iodine, vitamin C, E, K2... just a few chronic deficiencies of these could leave you with terrible heart/cardiovascular health.

    Many other factors may affect heart health and blood clotting. Maybe he got highly exposed to damaging toxins, such as from vaccines, high EMFs, fluoride, GMOs, etc (a cumulative effect)? Maybe he had high LDL and his clownworld doctor told him to take statins (and without CoQ10)? Maybe he avoided sodium or saturated fat as much as possible and ate a carb-based diet (which is often still promoted by the food/medical/pharma/govt industries)?

    Agreed about respecting HB-19, but we shouldn't extend that idea to respecting clownworld parameters of "[un]health". I have no proof (because clownworld studies don't address these factors) but I still strongly suspect that actually healthy people without nutrient deficiencies not only experience SARS-CoV-2 infection asymptomatically but can hardly spread it, and only those who don't understand health (i.e. don't know about the "official" clownworld lies/'science' frauds) or have weakened immune systems for other reasons (comorbidities as is common in advanced age) experience severe symptoms and can spread it during the pre-symptomatic stage (as the immune system isn't able to prevent replication hence exponentially increasing viral load).

    I could be wrong of course. But it seems to me many people are vastly underestimating their own power, and the intelligence of their body to effectively deal with pathogens (even with lab chimeras with a gain-of-function), providing you give it the chemical building blocks it needs (which won't happen if you just unconsciously eat whatever your tastebuds fancy or don't take supplements) -- as well as underestimating the degree to which nutrient-deficient modern lifestyles and the toxins we're deliberately exposed to have made us unhealthy and immunoincompetent.

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 5:50pm

    vshelford

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    re immunity

    The question is simple because my concerns are macro, not personal.  Obviously, the people here know enough to keep their own health and nutrients up to and above standard, and take all the other precautions.  What worries me, for the sake of the world if you like, is that the bland assumption of immunity will open the door to a much longer and more damaging run of this thing.

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 8:35pm

    JoyOnMaui

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    Reply to TBP: As far as I am concerned, you nailed it!

    I really can't begin to express how grateful I am for your post/insights.  You are positing the very hunches I have had for some time now, and which are ringing ever more uncomfortably true for me as time goes on even if there is, as you say, no official data to back them up.

    Throughout this entire debacle, which egregiously violates "First, do no harm!" everywhere, I have been hungry for some data about exactly who succumbs to this "virus" and, more specifically, what their nutritional status might be.

    As we have gone along, I have not been able to brush aside the vague notion that I my life, my well-being is now dubiously being held hostage for the benefit of those who have clearly, knowingly or not, compromised their immune system due to their lifestyle choices.

    Put another way, it is one thing to have to put up with a morbidly obese co-passenger in the seat next to you or with a whole segment of society allowing themselves to become obese and thus all of us experiencing higher than otherwise insurance premiums, but we have now progressed to a point where ALL of us are, in effect, suffering economically due to the choices some folks made along the way to expose themselves to environmental/dietary poisons of various sorts.   It is, in effect, a way of "socializing" the fallout from bad individual decisions made by the few - not so different from all of us having to pay for the bets gone sour in the insane gambling casino that Wall Street represents.

    I am so happy that you mentioned the nutrient deficient vegan types in particular, I have long felt that they likely lack the proteins (you speak of essential building blocks within the metaphor of constructing a house) necessary to fight a disease such as this one, and here I am, now suffering constraints on my personal liberty just because there are those with an insatiable need to virtue-signal  themselves to be better humans because they abstain from eating animal protein.   Never mind that they are seriously jeoparizing public health and shunning thousands of generations of elders who knew better, evolving this species to where we are today due to recognizing the benefit animal protein provides to the human organism.   Some of the most unhealthy people I know take great pride in their being "vegan".

    I so appreciate finding common sense and truth within the lines you posted!   It is one my gut has been whispering to me for some time now and I am glad to see someone else describe it so lucidly.

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  • Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - 11:09pm

    Base12

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    Vitamin D

    The evidence is mounting for Vitamin D deficiency being large causative factor in severity of Covid infections.  Tbp, have you seen any of the studies this person refers to?

    https://orthomolecular.activehosted.com/index.php?action=social&chash=b73ce398c39f506af761d2277d853a92.164&s=fefd45c21bc3a55252a9c7a67da2b16e

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  • Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - 1:56am

    #38
    RPSTemple

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    No 2nd Wave?

    I would like to think that there will be no second wave.  However I am not so sure.

    Sweden, as Chris has already noted, does not conform with the thesis proposed.  For personal reasons I have been following what is happening in Switzerland.

    There the government started relaxing containment measures at the end of April and had removed most by the early June (Monday 8th).  The daily report of new cases had been falling such that by early June the numbers were below 20 and often in single figures; then in mid June I have noticed that there were occasions where the number rose above 30.  The last three days the numbers have been 52 (25th), 58 (26th) & 69 (27th).  The last time the daily number had been above 50 was 16th May (58 reported).

    (Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/ )

    I also notice a tweet from Covid19Crusher which has drawn my  attention to Israel.  The chart below says it all.

    (Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ )

    Here in the UK, the Government in England is dropping restrictions as fast as it can - (it didn't want any in the first place!) - and my hunch is that we will see rising numbers for daily new cases at the end of July / early August -  four to six weeks from now, especially as hardly anybody in the UK is wearing a mask.

    My suspicion is that the steep rise in reported cases that we see in a lot of countries is more the direct result of the ramping up of testing abilities than anything else.  The SARS 2 coronavirus has probably been around a lot longer than we actually realize.  The "case, case, case" infection  was occurring much earlier, probably as far back as November/ December, possibly earlier.  By January/February, countries outside China, were actually in the "Cluster, Cluster" phase, though they did not know it.  They were already in the "Boom" stage by the time they started looking for it.  The steep rise in detected cases is as much a result of rapidly increasing testing facilities and the authorities actively trying to identify cases.

     

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  • Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - 2:58am

    #39

    davefairtex

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    Herd Immunity Threshold

    Here is a paper on the critical concept of herd immunity.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf

    Executive-executive summary: HIT is probably 20%, not 70%, because we aren't all interchangeable robots.  This folds in a lot of concepts that a number of people have mentioned here today, and a few more besides.  If you can wrap your brain around it, it lines up directly with what Chris is postulating, and it provides the theoretical basis for why this is so.

    I'm also cross-posting my weekly column here; at the end of my column, I try to summarize and put the above paper in context - hopefully not TL;DR.  The "Herd Immunity Threshold" special section is at the end - scroll directly there if you don't want to wade through the markets report, which could be summarized as: "gold did well, equities did not."

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/pm-weekly-market-commentary-06-26-2020/

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  • Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - 6:29am

    #40
    Mohammed Mast

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    The Hits Just Keep on Coming

    This article in arstechnica pretty well lays out the case that there are only 2 options to figure out why the US has the worst SC2 record.

    Option #1 The US government is grossly incompetent. The HHS budget is larger than the Pentagon budget. With all the resources at their disposal the CDC was not able to produce a decent test for well over a month. The complete lack of a sufficient supply of PPE .This set back efforts at containing the virus. This left us with one strategy, mitigation.  We know how that turned out.

    Corrective; Heads should roll. Fauci, Redfield, Trump, Pence and the rest of the political apparatchiks should be thrown under numerous buses. Clearly they lack the competence necessary to do their jobs.

    Option #2 There was an intentional mishandling of the SC2 virus situation. This is one for conspiracy theories. Big Pharma stands to make the windfall of the century. Lending credence to this is the full court press to develop a vaccine rather than cost effective treatments. This position is buttressed by media coverage of poorly designed studies. The complete dismissal of any positive results for drugs such as HCQ and the scare mongering of the dangers of HCQ. The absolute lying , admitted to by Fauci in regards to masks. The intentional obfuscation on what went wrong with the tests. The possible intention of "culling" the herd of the weakest most dependent. This list is quite extensive and has been elucidated on these pages in great detail.

    Corrective; See corrective above. Also add any measures as suitable punishment one might fantasize about.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/

    Addendum; It just occurred to me there might be an option 2a. The strategy may have been to let it run through the population and burn itself out. It could be the appearance of mishandling was devised to hide the fact that the real strategy was one espoused by Boris Johnson and carried out in Sweden, allow herd immunity to develop.

     

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  • Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - 9:15am

    Mohammed Mast

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    Damage

    I wonder how you know what I factored in?

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  • Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - 12:13pm

    #42
    nordicjack

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    MM both options

    Option one has far less impact.

    The misinformation deliberately to protect the dollars is a much bigger issue.

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  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 8:06am

    #43
    tbp

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    Our lives held hostage by unhealthy people, vegan diet, vit.D covid severity, CDC a vaccine company

    @JoyOnMaui
    As we have gone along, I have not been able to brush aside the vague notion that my life, my well-being is now dubiously being held hostage for the benefit of those who have clearly, knowingly or not, compromised their immune system due to their lifestyle choices.

    Absolutely, and so many people don't notice/realize this. If we at least had decent people in charge, the totalitarian advances could be reversed, but in most places this is not the case (not even Trump is necessarily an exception as the MSM/DNC/DS still have a lot of control, as do pro-rioting Democrat cities and states).

    I am so happy that you mentioned the nutrient deficient vegan types in particular, I have long felt that they likely lack the proteins (you speak of essential building blocks within the metaphor of constructing a house) necessary to fight a disease such as this one, and here I am, now suffering constraints on my personal liberty just because there are those with an insatiable need to virtue-signal themselves to be better humans because they abstain from eating animal protein. Never mind that they are seriously jeoparizing public health and shunning thousands of generations of elders who knew better, evolving this species to where we are today due to recognizing the benefit animal protein provides to the human organism. Some of the most unhealthy people I know take great pride in their being "vegan".

    Yep, they tend to think it's only B12 they need to supplement with, but that's just in the short-term. Absorbable protein, saturated fat, and fat-soluble vitamins (A, E, K) are severely lacking in a vegan diet, as one can witness for oneself by observing the many vegan Youtubers who eventually got so sick they felt they truly had no choice but to try animal foods, and they all get better within a single day, even at the cost of losing much of their audience/subscribers. People feel great when adopting a vegan diet, if switching from a terrible diet like the SAD or even the average Western diet, but it only lasts for so long, as it's more like a prolonged fasting than a sustainable diet, for most humans still as of today. A few spiritually-advanced people are able to pull it off, as you start nourishing yourself less with external energy and more with prana and an increased ability to recycle your own energy (when very advanced this is known as breatharianism).

     

    @Base12
    The evidence is mounting for Vitamin D deficiency being large causative factor in severity of Covid infections. Tbp, have you seen any of the studies this person refers to?
    https://orthomolecular.activehosted.com/index.php?action=social&chash=b73ce398c39f506af761d2277d853a92.164&s=fefd45c21bc3a55252a9c7a67da2b16e

    Oh yes, it seems the levels of 25-HO-D in blood directly correlate to disease severity, approximately like this:

    <20 ng/ml = likely death
    20-30 ng/ml = severe, long-term damage
    30-40 ng/ml = significant to somewhat severe symptoms, maybe months-long damage / slow recovery of such aspects as sense of smell and taste
    40-60 ng/ml = asymptomatic (esp. if young) or near-asymptomatic
    60-80 ng/ml = virus? what virus?

    edit: The highest level that study even contemplates is 100 nmol/L which is only 40 ng/ml, when the actual updated science says 60-80 ng/ml (150-200 nmol/L) is the optimal disease-fighting vitamin D level.

    And to reach these levels you need lots of sunshine on a daily basis, or 10000-40000 IU daily when correcting an existing deficiency (but 40000+ for weeks requires magnesium sufficiency otherwise you may get calcification effects). Taking only 5000 IU can take you months to reach healthy levels. Taking the RDA of 400-1000 IU (I think it is, depending on your local "health authorities") is hardly a maintenance dose, and does nothing to correct an existing deficiency.

     

    @Mohammed Mast
    Option #2 There was an intentional mishandling of the SC2 virus situation. This is one for conspiracy theories. Big Pharma stands to make the windfall of the century. Lending credence to this is the full court press to develop a vaccine rather than cost effective treatments. This position is buttressed by media coverage of poorly designed studies. The complete dismissal of any positive results for drugs such as HCQ and the scare mongering of the dangers of HCQ. The absolute lying , admitted to by Fauci in regards to masks. The intentional obfuscation on what went wrong with the tests. The possible intention of "culling" the herd of the weakest most dependent. This list is quite extensive and has been elucidated on these pages in great detail.

    Everything, any idea you disagree with, can be labeled a conspiracy theory, and that's what criminals and NPCs do, ever since the CIA invented the term to discredit JFK assassination investigators.

    Trump is guilty of ignorance at the least. He should've done the research to known not to trust Fauci and Redfield. As Robert F. Kennedy Jr explains, the CDC is literally a vaccine company -- which seems to benefit/profit from a pandemic. As researcher Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai points out in this interview with Dr. Mercola, having 7 billion people on a vaccine schedule, at one thousand bucks per person, is 7 trillion dollars of recurring revenue, "a relatively good return on investment".

     

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  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 3:36pm

    #44
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Datis Kharrazian on Immunity

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSB5Npa9Wck

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  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 4:33pm

    #45
    kunga

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    Always to extremes, my fellow Amurikuns

    Well, the word is out on Vitamin D purportedly effecting  Covid-19 severity.  Several years ago, Life Extention, a supplement and testing company out of Florida, specializing in healthy aging, reported many seniors to have very low levels of vitamin D, many around 20 ng/ml.

    Today, an email, contained a warning that in recent LE lab tests, many were showing up with too high levels of  25 hydroxy vitamin D, many 100-140 ng/ml.

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  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 4:51pm

    #46
    kunga

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    Oregon update

    As of July 1, Wednesday, all Oregonians inside public places must wear masks.  Governor Kate has tried to lead with a gentle hand.  Not being a medical person, she has listened too closely to the confusing, flawed recommendations of the authorities.  She has tried to appeal to the good sense and kindness of most people.  Unfortunately, there are a lot of the other kinds of folks that need to be bopped upside the head with a 2X4.  There is going to be kicking and screaming from my red side of the state.  We are going into BOOM!! if this is not stopped, now.  A church that refused to follow gathering restrictions is responsible for a cluster of nearly 250 cases in a small county, also food processors and large family gatherings.

    We were lucky early on.  Luck runs out.  I think there was something in The New Testament, Satan vs Christ, "thou shall not tempt the Lord thy G*d."

    #patriotswearmasks

     

     

     

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  • Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - 2:11am

    #47
    MrPool

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    Melbourne Australia re-locks ten targeted metro suburbs

    Hi Chris,
    I live in a suburb of outer Melbourne, Australia and work in community health. Melbourne and its wider suburban area has a population of just under 5 million, comparable in size to the greater Phoenix, Boston or San Francisco areas.
    After enjoying a stable period of very few new daily cases and a gradual easing of strict lockdowns, our state of Victoria has experienced a rising rate of COVID-19 cases into double digits over the last couple of weeks. Many of these cases originate among those staying in hotel quarantine as well as some arising from large family/friend groups and cross contacts during the easing window.
    Today, our Premier Daniel Andrews (US Governor equivalent) announced that targeted suburbs in ten (10) postcodes (zip codes) around Melbourne will be subject to a new four week lockdown period starting tomorrow, Weds 1 July. Most are in the western parts of the suburbs and many, though certainly not all, experience significant socio-economic disadvantage. Enforcement seems to be limited to fines rather than more draconian measures and Andrews does not plan to barricade these suburbs with police. Residents will still be able to leave their area for healthcare, essential needs like groceries, caregiving duties or if they are essential workers themselves. Schools have just started their usual two week holidays and will not be affected for the time being. Melbourne International Airport will close for two weeks.
    I'm also a Texan ex-pat, having lived in Australia for more than half my life. I find it both fascinating and bewildering at times comparing the differences in approach between the two locales. For instance, Victoria does not require masks to be worn in public. We experienced a tightening of PPE availability in the early days of the crisis but except for N95 masks, no prolonged or dire scarcity. The N95 masks first became scarce in Dec/Jan, when bushfires tore through the landscape and when many people needed them in the disaster and recovery stages. Later, N95 masks were diverted to health workers and public dental clinics as a priority but are currently much more freely available. You can now find masks in many hardware stores and we have no difficulty sourcing them for my work at a public health agency. Most people do not wear masks in public here, although more wear them when using public transport (trams/trains/busses). I suspect that home-made fabric masks will become the norm here eventually, especially after repeat lockdown periods, but I can't imagine a politicisation of mask wearing like trumpeted in the US media.
    Another difference that bears noting is the use of defence force personnel in assisting with crisis management. Premier Andrews has just confirmed that an  additional 200 medical professionals he has arranged to work during this new lockdown will most likely come from the Australian Defence Force (ADF). He specifically noted that ADF personnel do not have law enforcement authority and will limit their work to door knock testing, contact tracing and relief at pop-up testing clinics.
    Widespread COVID-19 testing and availability is available in Melbourne. My workplace, a community health agency, offers a wide variety of public dental, non-acute and allied health services but no GP or medical services. I live and work adjacent to a lockdown area but many of our patients live in a target zone. We were approached by the State government in April, to open a Respiratory Assessment Clinic (RAC). The clinic was set up within a week in late April as part of a state-wide testing blitz, one of dozens of similar sites. This RAC clinic is staffed by local hospital professionals, with the State government picking up the tab for testing and wages (paid straight to the hospital) and use of premises and logistics (paid to my agency). It averages 75 - 150 tests per day, is free to the public and immediately available to symptomatic people (including those with the slightest cold-like signs), those with exposure to a known/suspected case and essential workers. The worried well are encouraged to seek a free test from the hospital itself.
    In the economic space, the Australian government has gone some way in supporting the general population to mitigate financial ruin through its JobKeeper and JobSeeker schemes, subsidising businesses to keep people employed and paying citizens while they search for work if they couldn't stay at their former job. These payments don't cover everyone and further work remains to fill the gaps. However, I'm pleased to see the government's general tendency towards pork barrelling and foolish waste has been kept to a minimum and some real relief is getting to people who need it the most.
    Australia is very like the States in many ways; the people are amazing, the landscape is beautiful and there's a feeling of genuine community in many areas. And just like the States, the economy is taking a battering. Businesses are going under. People are losing jobs. Family violence is on the increase. Everyone is feeling stressed, isolated, lonely or fed-up.
    Despite cynical tendencies towards politicians, I can recommend watching Premier Dan Andrews' latest announcement of the targeted lockdowns. He's not only a manager, he does some actual leading. SBS TV News Announcement and Statement from the Premier.
    Like me, you're probably thinking that limiting lockdown restrictions to very specific geographic areas is just asking for non-compliance by a segment of the population. I think this may be an excellent chance to see a social experiment in action. How will this play out through the lens of social expectation and peer pressure, social and mainstream media, economic stress, feelings of injustice or boredom among residents? Will health authorities and society see a real or rapid decrease in cases? How difficult will it be to enforce? What does four weeks of restriction really accomplish if adjoining areas aren't locked down as well? How do you measure success or apply targeted lockdown to another population? We'll see in four weeks.
    Good luck to my kindred PP'ers out there and thanks, Chris and Adam, for all you do. You truly make a difference.
    Mr Pool

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  • Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - 6:27pm

    #48

    Barbara

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    China has a vaccine for their military

    https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/06/29/China-approves-COVID-19-vaccine-for-military-use-as-it-enters-clinical-trials/9371593440563/

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  • Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - 8:50pm

    #49
    Island girl

    Island girl

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    FDA approved drugs that inhibit furin proteases - suggested they might help treat COVID

    Recall prior videos about the novel furin cleavege site on SARS Cov-2. Cathepsin-L is a protease that is involved in cleaving the viral S protein, one of the steps in viral infection of the cell.

    CRISPER analysisby a grop of researchers (Yale and other insittutions) identified certain host genes in cultured African green monkey kidney cells that are involved in regulating SARS COv-2 infection. The researchers concluded that certain small molecule inhibitors of Cathepsin-L inhibited infection in cell culture (I'm not clear on what kind of cells were used here).

    https://www.immunology.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/covid-19-immunology-literature-reviews/genome-wide-crispr-screen-reveals-host-genes-that-regulate-sars-cov-2-infection

    A review by investigators at Brigham and Women's in Boston suggests that FDA approved drugs that block Cathepsin-L may be useful as treatment. I think this is just based on their mechanisms of action, not clinical data.

    They mention several drug classes including chloroquin (I think they mean to include its chemical relatives, like HCQ, as well), some antimicrobials, and interestingly, the red pigment, Astaxanthin, which is an antioxidant like Vitamin C.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163725820301157

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  • Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - 8:51pm

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    use of military as test subjects

    They are giving the vaccine to the military as they ENTER phase 3 trials.  It almost sounds as though the dosing of the military personnel IS the phase 3 trial.  It wouldn't be the first time military recruits were used as guinea pigs (I mean test subjects).  I feel badly for them but I hope it works!

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 3:15am

    #51

    msnrochny

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    A posting I just read from a doctor in Arizona

    This week I was one of the COVID doctors in the hospital. Before I went on service, I had planned to share my experiences when I got home after my last shift. That didn't happen because I was mentally and emotionally exhausted after being at the hospital for 15+ hours.

    I am going to try to break things down so that the general public can understand, because I want everyone, not just my fellow healthcare workers, to be as scared as I am.

    This is going to be long, but hopefully will be worth the read for someone.

    For references purposes, I am a Hospitalist, which is sort of like your primary care doctor when you're in the hospital. We manage your chronic medical conditions and most of your acute issues in the hospital and consult specialists when we need additional help with complex decision making or a specialized procedure to be performed. We are also the primary point of contact for your nurse on most issues.

    I live in Arizona, the current COVID-19 hot spot. Arizona never really closed. Any level of closure that we obtained was the result of petitions with thousands of signatures from physicians. Despite pretty much being able to do anything you wanted to do except get your hair/nails done or eat out at a restaurant (carry out stayed open), people protested the state being closed. The state reopened immediately when criteria were put out to guide how and when states should reopen. To be clear, Arizona did not meet a single criteria for reopening. In addition, masks were not mandated. Governor Ducey avoided mandating masks and made it the responsibility of city Mayors to make any mandates. Mandatory masks were just implemented a few days ago.

    As you have almost certainly seen in the news, the rapid reopening without mandated masks has been catastrophic. In a couple of weeks we have gone from a few hundred cases per day to around 3,500 cases per day. A few weeks ago, I was working at the COVID-free hospital designated to be the primary elective surgery campus within the network. The past few days, our recently reopened COVID Unit has been near or completely full. I shared the patient's on the unit with one other hospitalist.

    Before I went on service this week, I read anything and everything I could to prepare myself to be the COVID doc. I was up to date on all of the latest recommendations. I was a little nervous, but felt like I was armed with the information that would allow me to help my patients.

    I quickly learned that there is no possible way to prepare for how to treat a COVID patient. There is no rhyme, reason, or pattern. There is no possible way to predict what will happen with your patient.

    In my sign out to the doc taking over for me today, I prefaced the individual patient sign outs with, "one slightly improving, one with less oxygen requirements but possible new liver failure developing, everyone else getting worse."

    I have never seen anything like this. None of us have. We have no idea what we are doing. We are sharing evidence from small studies that could help and utilizing treatments that we think and hope are helpful. Of course, we also thought hydroxychloroquine was helpful a couple of months ago. So, we're hopefully helping people, maybe hurting them, and trying our best. We are flipping people on their stomachs while wide awake on a machine pushing oxygen into their lungs to try and help; this is called the prone position, and it works, but you're stuck in that position for as long as we can keep you there. The longer the better. Anyone on supplemental oxygen is receiving dexamethasone based on the European study that came out last week. We were using Remdesivir, but a patient I admitted two days ago is the last one that will receive it from our current stockpile. Convalescent plasma from patients that had COVID, recovered, and donated plasma is being administered, but studies suggest that antibody concentration diminishes by up to 90% within 2-3 months, so who knows if that's even doing anything.

    I realized in the past two days that oxygen saturation numbers that you see on the machines are completely worthless in many COVID patients. So, the one thing we thought we knew, that COVID causes profound hypoxia, was true, but it's actually much worse than we thought. In order to figure out if you are hypoxic (low blood oxygen levels), a needle is stuck into an artery in your wrist as often as is needed. It hurts. A lot. I will have a needle stuck into your artery as often as I need to. I'm sorry, I know it hurts, but it's for your own good.

    In any other time, most of my patients would already be intubated on a ventilator. We are managing so many critically ill patients on regular hospital floors. If we sent everyone to the ICU that would normally be there based on their current status and put them all on ventilators, all resources would be depleted in a day.

    The patients I cared for the past few days were the most miserable, uncomfortable, terrified patients I have seen in the past four years. I sat with them while they cried because they are scared that they will get worse and get intubated and die without ever seeing their loved ones again. I can't comfort them by saying they'll get better soon, because I don't know that they will. All I can tell them is that we're doing everything we can and I really hope they improve. I held a patients hand while she cried and screamed, "oh my god, I'm going to die, aren't I? I'm dying" when I told her we couldn't give her more oxygen without intubating her and putting her on life support. I then tried to comfort her children over the phone after I informed them they were not allowed to come in to the hospital to be with her. They asked if someone could be there to comfort her if she is going to die.

    Many of my patients were young. Many have no underlying conditions that predispose them to a bad outcome, yet are one bad blood oxygen reading away from needing to be intubated.

    COVID does not care who you are.

    I am scared and you should be, too.

    All of that is to send the following message:

    Please, please, stay home if you can. If you need to go out, WEAR A MASK! Do not touch your face. Wash your hands and sanitize often. I can't promise you won't end up in the hospital with COVID even if you do all of these things, but I promise it's the best shot you've got.

    P.S. THANK YOU to all the amazing RNs, RTs, PCTs, Pharmacists, Pharmacy techs, lab techs, physical, occupational & speech therapists, social workers, case managers, environmental service workers, and everyone else that makes it possible to care for these patients in the best way we know how. You don't get enough credit. You all are the real MVPs.

    ______________________________________

    ADDENDUM: To be clear, COVID-19 is caused by a virus. This is a PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS. It is not, never has been, and never will be a political issue. Politics have played a huge role in getting us into this mess, and it's time to cut them out. COVID doesn't discriminate, and it definitely doesn't care who you're going to vote for. When you see/hear/read anything related to COVID-19, pay attention to who is posting the information. If it is not coming from a medical professional, question your source.

    ______________________________________

    ADDENDUM-2: I am so incredibly shocked at how widely this has been shared. Thank you all! Please continue to share! Since people are reading this, I would like to use this platform to ask you to PLEASE talk with your loved ones about your wishes. If you have an advance directive, please bring it with you if you are unfortunately in need of hospitalization. If you do not have an advance directive, it's time to get one. If we do not know what you would like to be done, we assume that the answer is everything. If your loved one or listed MPOA is unaware of your wishes, they will likely also err on the side of doing everything. Help them to make those very difficult decisions by making your wishes known. Do not wait until you are in the hospital, because it may be too late. Please look up what it means to be "full code" vs "DNR/DNI." Know what you would want done to you.

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 8:14am

    Mohammed Mast

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    Problem

    By the time you get to the hospital it is too late for HCQ. It appears this doctor is unaware that HCQ and all antivirals need to be given early or they are useless. He either slept through that part of med school or believes the deeply flawed studies the media is blasting everywhere.

    Basically either doctors are guilty of malpractice or are being forced into malpractice by the government. If you show up at a doctors office, urgent care, or ER with Covid symptoms you get tested and wait 24 hours. If it comes back positive you get sent home told to quarantine and if it gets worse you get into a hospital. This is standard of care mandated by the government. There is clinical evidence that HCQ works when administered early along with zinc.

    An ECG should be administered to determine QTc interval. If it is 460 or below give HCQ. If it is between 460 and 500 give it but monitor it. If it is over 500 do not give HCQ.

    I am not a doctor so how come I know this?

    BECAUSE I AM ON MY FUCKING OWN

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 8:23am

    #53
    TurquoiseRose

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    Reply to Sandpuppy's post on Pulmonary compromise- found a reference

    Impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on pulmonary function in early convalescence phase
    More than half of the patients experienced a decrease in respiratory muscle strength. Approximately 29.8% of patients in our study were severe or critical, who had hypoxemia during hospitalization, requiring supplemental oxygen and bed rest, and prolonged bed rest might lead to muscle disorders. In addition, systemic use of corticosteroids might cause steroid myopathy. But when grouped by the administration of steroid, no statistical significance was found in respiratory muscle strength between the glucocorticoid group and the regular group. This result indicated that corticosteroid was not the main cause of respiratory muscle weakness. In fact, there was no difference on declining respiratory muscle strength between severe and non-severe groups. However, the direct effect of virus on respiratory muscles needs further research.

    In conclusion, impaired diffusing-capacity, respiratory muscle strength decrease, and lung imaging abnormalities were detected in more than half of the COVID-19 patients in early convalescence phase. Compared with non-severe cases, severe patients had a higher incidence of DLCO impairment and encountered more TLC decrease and 6MWD decline. Longer follow-up studies in COVID-19 patients should be performed to investigate the clinical outcome of recovered COVID-19 patients.

    https://respiratory-research.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12931-020-01429-6

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 9:02am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 1170

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    Reply to the long post by the Hospitalist/DR in AZ

    I have never seen anything like this. None of us have. We have no idea what we are doing. We are sharing evidence from small studies that could help and utilizing treatments that we think and hope are helpful. Of course, we also thought hydroxychloroquine was helpful a couple of months ago.

    The fact that this Doc does not know HCQ does in fact work if given early enough is evidence of a crime against humanity.  There exists an entity that literally wants what we hear being described in this post to happen... we need to rally against this enemy.

    You may not like Donald Trump.. I always kind of nod my head when people call him an asshole, or a narcissist... but you must realize that when it comes to this pandemic, and the potential role of Hydroxychloroquine,  The enemy of Donald Trump is the enemy of you, and me, and especially our elderly parents.  Let that sink in.  Please.

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 9:29am

    #55

    sand_puppy

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    Joined: Apr 13 2011

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    Hospital medicine for COVID is Late Stage Treatment

    Hey Jim H,

    Remember that msnrochny is a hospitalist who does not begin to see patient until they are admitted to the hospital--generally when their oxygenation is so bad that they must have supplemental O2 just to keep a SaO2 above 90% - 92%.  They are middle to late stage when HCQ  has diminishing returns.

    As James Todaro posts:

    (Though there was some benefit from later stage COVID treatment in hospitalized patients from HCQ when combined with Zinc in the NY Langone Hospital study.....)

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 9:42am

    Jim H

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    I know what you are saying Sandpuppy... but

    This Doc should be pissed as hell that people are dying in the hospital when they could have a very strong chance of never getting there if they had the Zelenko cocktail early.. that's all I am saying.  That he doesn't know this, and in fact parrot's the MSM propaganda, is very, very sad.

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 11:29am

    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Posts: 44

    My IQ is room temp

    in K 🙂

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 11:55am

    DennisC

    DennisC

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2011

    Posts: 146

    Profoundly Gifted

    We're fortunate to have many exceptionally gifted members and some that are probably indeterminate and well down the asymptote of the curve.  If we're going with Fahrenheit, well, it's not looking good:

    The average score on an IQ test is 100. These labels are often given for IQ scores:

    • 1 to 24: Profound mental disability
    • 25 to 39: Severe mental disability
    • 40 to 54: Moderate mental disability
    • 55 to 69: Mild mental disability
    • 70 to 84: Borderline mental disability
    • 85 to 114: Average intelligence
    • 115 to 129: Above average or bright
    • 130 to 144: Moderately gifted
    • 145 to 159: Highly gifted
    • 160 to 179: Exceptionally gifted
    • 180 and up: Profoundly gifted

    https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-genius-iq-score-2795585

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 12:54pm

    Thors Hammer

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    Thors Hammer said:

    The View from the Second World

    "Cuba nears total containment after 9 days without new diagnosed cases of CORVID19."

    Cuba's experience with the pandemic is in total contrast with that of countries like the US where the response reflects its political disunity and a profit maximization medical system.   With 30% more population than New York City, Cuba has had only 85 deaths from the disease, while New York has lost 17,000.  Even if you contend that Cuban reporting is unreliable, the contrast is so stark that it cannot be ignored.

    Cuba has several advantages in combating a pandemic:  It is an island where it is relatively  easy to close off all access (at the cost of loss of a major source of foreign currency, the tourist industry).  It has a centralized command structure and the ability to mobilize or coerce its population.  It has twice as many doctors per capita compared to any other country in the world.  But most importantly, it has a well developed free public health care system refined by long experience combating hurricanes and viral tropical diseases.

    When the US press happens to mention countries that are more successful in combating the pandemic (New Zealand)  Cuba is never mentioned. After all Cuba is a Designated Enemy from which nothing good can ever arise.

    From Reuters: June 8, 2020

    HAVANA (Reuters) -" Reina Paula, a saleswoman at Havana’s La Epoca supermarket, said the same day that a worker tested positive for the coronavirus, local authorities sent the rest of the staff in a fleet of state vehicles to isolation facilities for testing.

    Healthcare providers traced their relatives and sent them into quarantine, while state news outlets publicly appealed to anyone who had had close contact with them to come forward to prevent the virus from spreading.

    “They followed the clinical steps like a Swiss clock,” said Paula, at home after recovering from the worst of COVID-19, the respiratory disease the novel coronavirus causes.

    Those who tested positive were transferred to hospital, where they were given antivirals and immune system boosters, while the others were sent home to quarantine for two weeks.

    Paula’s story illustrates the rigorous approach Cuba has taken to curb the coronavirus outbreak - helped by the Caribbean island nation’s preventive, universal and well-staffed healthcare system, centralization and use of coercion.

    Doing so was politically vital for Cuba’s ruling Communist Party, which claims the country’s strong healthcare system as a key achievements, even as it has failed to deliver on the economy, partly due to a U.S. trade embargo.

    New cases have dropped to less than 10 per day on average from a peak of around 50, and two thirds of the island is virus-free, according to official data.

    Monday was the ninth consecutive day with no deaths from COVID-19, while the highly infectious disease continues to rage throughout the Americas.

    “We could be shortly closing in on the tail end of the pandemic and entering the phase of recovery from COVID,” President Miguel Diaz-Canel said this weekend.

    Like many countries, Cuba closed its borders and schools at the start of the outbreak and urged Cubans to practice social distancing, though that was complicated by large queues outside shops amid growing scarcity.

    But Cuba swiftly made face masks obligatory and quarantined large numbers of people rather than just telling them to stay home.

    Disobeying pandemic measures carried a fine or even a prison sentence. And the Cuban state has used its monopoly of traditional news media to broadcast trials for such offenses to set an example and educate citizens on the virus.

    It has also sent tens of thousands of family doctors, nurses and medical students to homes nationwide daily to conduct screenings, underscoring a strength of the healthcare system, even as tight resources in recent decades have seen hospitals fall into disrepair and more frequent medicine shortages.

    Cuba’s top epidemiologist, Francisco Duran, said early detection, hospitalization and the application of experimental treatments - many developed by the country’s own biotech sector - have helped reduce COVID-19’s fatality.

    Cuba, with a population of 11 million, has reported 2,200 cases and 83 deaths. That translates to 0.73 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, according to a Johns Hopkins University tally, slightly above Costa Rica’s 0.20 per 100,000 but far below Brazil’s 17.4.

    The success has won plaudits from citizens.

    “Once more,” Havana resident Marina Rodriguez said, “our country has shown that despite its difficulties, it is always able to control an epidemic.”

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 2:18pm

    stevedaly

    stevedaly

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    I wish I could believe the Cuba information

    Thanks for bringing it forward.  But how can we know that the Reuteers/Havana press is any more reliable than the Pravda news we already have here in the U.S.?

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 2:38pm

    Redneck Engineer

    Redneck Engineer

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    Redneck Engineer said:

    msnrochny - Thanks for the post!

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 2:59pm

    Redneck Engineer

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    Redneck Engineer said:

    MM - Incompetence is rampant in all bureaucracies and seats of power.

    I see plenty of mistakes by both parties. Trump did one thing right (fairly) early: blocking flights to/from China. It should have been earlier and stronger, but at least it was what it was. And for that, his political adversaries saw it as an opportunity to attack him. This implies the actual consequences for the rest of us were a secondary concern to scoring political points. That tells you everything, in one clear case, about their values, character, and ethics.

    I'd include the mainstream media here as well. Because Trump asked a question about HCQ, that potential treatment became instantly and deliberately stigmatized - again, to score political points at the expense of health and science. Again, that tells you everything about modern journalism's ethics.

    I really hate being pessimistic. I deliberately look for reasons to be optimistic. When assessing the nature, character, and direction of major institutions like the media and government, I find far more reasons to despair.

    We literally are having potential treatments banned by politicized bureaucracies. That is unspeakably evil at any time, but far more so in the face of a pandemic and novel virus. We should have every option on the table. We should be able to learn from testing done overseas, to use drugs tested elsewhere without having to repeat the tests ourselves and delay treatment to untold thousands. We should be able to discuss these issues publicly and openly as adults, able to set aside political differences and focus on the facts.

    So if we are to cast a wide net to see who is contributing to our current crisis, I'd include politicians of both parties right at the top. But I would include the media, for fostering partisanship over science, health, and objectivity. I would include the national and international science bureaucracies, for not standing up for objectivity in science and making health subservient to partisan politics and (in some cases) financial concerns. I would include a large portion of the public for deciding to pick a side rather than getting the facts. I almost blame the general public for not knowing how to think (as opposed to expressing feelings) but that blame lies far more with the horrid education system.

    Looking at that context, I am not optimistic about our path forward as a culture. The Titanic is slowly sinking, and the crew is arguing over the color of the drapes.

    I want optimism. I have despair.

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 6:40pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Redneck Engineer

    I offered 2 options and it appears you have chosen incompetence rather than intention. Yes most would like to believe that to be the case since to believe intention would open up a Pandoras Box of the unimaginable. It would entail a journey into "the Heart of Darkness" Or more contemporary "Apocalypse Now" , "the horror"

    On the one hand incompetence can be forgiven, a few scapegoats sacrificed, some minor punishments meted out (then pardoned like Scooter Libby). Then all will soon be forgotten amidst the chaos of pandemic or the anesthesia of sports entertainment. That is all well and good till the next time.

    But what if one were to entertain even casually that all of this Kabuki theater is intentional? This would require removing a lifetime of myth and propaganda. It would also risk a great deal of ridicule should one even publicly whisper the very possibility. One would have to open ones mind, be objective, and think more critically than perhaps one ever has

    We then get into the realm of as I mentioned conspiracy theories. That is not as far fetched as it might seem at first glance. After al the genesis of this site came from the reading of a single book "The Creature from Jekyll Island". I doubt more than a couple of days has gone by in 13 years where the subject of the Fed does not come up. There just might be more than a financial connection between the Creature and the virus. Perhaps it is all one giant "amoeba" and we are just now seeing another aspect of a plan that goes back before we were born?

    WestcoastJan posted the following a few weeks ago and I don't think many saw it or read it. I don't think one can read it and not at least have some doubts as to who is incompetent. As I have posted before if you sit down at a gaming table and can't figure out who the sucker is then it is you. One interesting question is what ever happened to that nano scientist Lieber from Harvard? He seems to have disappeared from the news pretty quickly.

    Well here is the Red Pill

    http://themillenniumreport.com/2020/06/the-imperial-british-world-order-a-rothschild-creation-via-mass-surveillance-and-nanotech-bioweaponry/

    It is rather long but the end is quite interesting.

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 6:54pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Good Point Steve

    We can't know. What we can do is look at the history of health care in Cuba. It has been among the best in the western Hemisphere for a very long time. It has trained drs. from all over Central and S. America. Just as New Zealand is an island so is Cuba. This makes it much easier  to control the borders. It has a strong central government. There are not 50 governors with 50 different ideas on the best approach. there is not a political divide illustrated by BLM and Antifa. If you factor all the variables it is not far fetched to believe they are doing well.

    I believe it.

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 7:03pm

    Redneck Engineer

    Redneck Engineer

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    Redneck Engineer said:

    MM -

    I'm sure there is a lot of corruption and deliberate action. I see a lot of Deep State action. The Marxists, foreign and domestic, are working hard to crash the economy, government, and culture.

    But at the biggest level, I apply Hanlon's razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." The difference is intent, and having the evidence to prove it. I'm more confident in leaving the assessment at incompetence. Incompetence is an easier case to make.

    Also, does it make a difference whether it is malice or incompetence? The end result would be the same, or at least close enough. And it is likely both. Is there such a thing as a controlled economic crash? I don't think so. They may think they have the skill to control it, though.

    P.S. I know there is a lot of corruption in the world, but I don't subscribe to the view that the Rothschilds are pulling the strings.

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  • Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - 8:36pm

    #66
    pcm

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    Wearing Face Masks?

    Chris,

    I've been wanting to ask you near the end of your video, you have the three visitors in your garden kind of close to each other without wearing face masks.  Is it because they are outside so you're okay with it?  They don't look 6ft. apart to me...

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  • Thu, Jul 02, 2020 - 9:17am

    Thors Hammer

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    All governments lie

    Steve

    I operate under the principle that all governments lie whenever they think it will benefit them.  If they have control of the dialogue they will ignore facts and repeat their lies over and over again until it becomes embedded as "truth."That is certainly true for the USA (Russiagate) and China (economic statistics). Cuba's public health system has been one of it's claims to success for decades, and as such has been subject to viewing by numerous organizations not part of the Cuban propaganda system.  So I would conclude that there is some element of truth in it's claims.  And statistics like life expectancy and child mortality (where it  ranks somewhat superior to the US) have also been subject to international scrutiny. So without the ability to determine absolutely the accuracy of Cuba's reported response to CORVID19, I conclude that  it at least demands consideration.

    Simply from the standpoint of  technical statistical analysis, the magnitude of difference between the official death count in New York and Cuba is so vast that it is impossible  to not believe that Cuba and New York are  in different universes when it comes to their response to the pandemic.

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  • Thu, Jul 02, 2020 - 9:44am

    Thors Hammer

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    Cuban medical treatment for CORVID19

    Rueters: "Those who tested positive were transferred to hospital, where they were given antivirals and immune system boosters"  With few intubation machines in the entire country, that process was rarely used.

    This is one of the key differences between the Cuban treatment protocol and the New York one.  In NY 1/3 of the patients admitted to hospital were intubated, a very invasive procedure that requires the patient to be placed in a coma. Once intubated, the death rate is 80-90%.  The US federal government compensated hospitals with payments of $35,000 for intubation but only $13,000 if the patients didn't receive  it.

    Follow the Money:  The US profit maximization medical extortion system at work.

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