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    Coronavirus Update: The Calm Before The Storm

    The media is downplaying risk as models suggest infections will soon soar
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 2:50 PM

The sudden lack of new information coming out of China has Chris spooked.

He walks us through the math here, showing how if the coronavirus follows its current geometric growth, over 100 million people could be infected by the end of February:

Don’t take today’s lack of ‘news’ as meaning the threat from this virus is dying down.

This could very likely just be the calm before the storm.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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180 Comments

  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 3:18pm

    #1

    Mark Cochrane

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    US cases?

    Anyone else find is strange that the US hasn't reported any new cases in days? Got to 5 and stopped even though there are supposedly >100 under observation. Never mind the 200 who were just flown in. They have to wait for a 3 day screening (why just 3 days?).

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 3:35pm

    #2
    Doug

    Doug

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    update

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-u-s-map-where-virus-has-been-confirmed-across-n1124546

    "This map will be updated as more cases in the U.S. are confirmed. As of Jan. 29 (today), there were five: one each in Illinois, Arizona and Washington state, and two in California."

    "Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, based in Atlanta. As of Jan. 29, 165 samples from 36 states were being tested; five have come back positive, and 68 have tested negative. The rest of the results are pending."

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 3:43pm

    #3

    Rector

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    Event 201

    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

    OK.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 4:30pm

    #4
    DisappearingCulture

    DisappearingCulture

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    10 minutes ago...5 cases of coronavirus confirmed in US, risk of spreading remains low, CDC says

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/cases-coronavirus-confirmed-us-risk-spreading-remains-low-cdc

    Just posting a link to an article; I don't know fact from fiction.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 4:33pm

    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    New York cases under observation

    We reportedly have 10 people under observation as of today.  A press conference with the Mayor of NYC and the Governor was held last Friday for the first 4 suspected cases. One ruled out, the other 3......crickets...so yes I am certainly wondering what the heck is going on here. I predict another Friday afternoon press conference with an update or no update at all.  The silence on the first suspected cases is anxiety provoking.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 4:47pm

    #6
    Time2help

    Time2help

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    1st Rule of Statistics for Politicians

    If the numbers trend against your preferred narrative, stop counting.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 4:59pm

    #7

    Mark Cochrane

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    3 Days ago

    The US confirmed its 5th case of the corona virus 3 days ago, on Sunday. There has not been another one since.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/26/799726161/coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-arizona-bringing-u-s-total-to-5

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:03pm

    #8

    Adam Taggart

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    New China totals just released: 170 deaths and 7,711 cases

     Chinese officials confirm death toll rises to 170

    China’s National Health Commission confirmed an additional 38 deaths and 1,737 new cases. Officials said that brings their total to 170 deaths and 7,711 cases, as of the end of Wednesday. They also said 170 people had been cured and discharged. The NHC said the new cases announced Thursday include the first one confirmed in Tibet.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/coronavirus-live-updates-china-says-death-toll-rises.html

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:05pm

    #9

    Adam Taggart

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    3 Japanese nationals test positive for coronavirus

    From the same article:

    Three people who were among roughly 200 Japanese nationals evacuated from Wuhan have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to public broadcaster NHK citing Japan’s health ministry. The three Japanese, who had returned on a government-chartered flight on Wednesday, had not shown any symptoms, according to the report.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:10pm

    #10

    Mark Cochrane

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    Good luck stopping the spread of this disease...

    10-Year-Old Boy Raises Fears Wuhan Virus Could Spread Undetected

    The boy’s case, published Jan. 24 in the Lancet medical journal, was the first to demonstrate person-to-person and health-care associated spread of the newly identified virus, dubbed 2019-nCoV. The asymptomatic infection has fueled concern the pathogen, which has already spread to 15 countries and infected close to 6,000 people, may turn out to be harder to detect and contain than SARS, the similar pneumonia-like illness that erupted into a global epidemic.

    The 10-year-old boy’s lungs were also scanned “on the insistence by the nervous parents” and showed signs of infection, which was confirmed by swabs of the back of his nose and throat. That meant he was capable of transmitting the virus even though the kind of tests used in airport screening for the virus would not identify him as a carrier.

     

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:14pm

    #11
    Myrto Ashe

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    Problem with counting cases

    I agree that it is valuable to try to project the number of cases going forward, but I don’t think that we will have enough test kits, or appropriate reagents, in two weeks or three weeks to show millions of positives throughout the world.

    Also, some people need to be tested more than once before they turn positive (that is, they turn positive later in the course of the illness), which means that you need more than one test kit for each positive case, making the task of finding all the positives even more daunting. It may be that by next week, unless we devote entire factories to manufacturing testing kits, reported deaths continue to climb, but the reported number of cases deviates from that exponential growth.

     

    The one story I read about a woman who had to be tested three times before she turned positive also suggests further challenges in preventing transmission. False negative tests are a scourge in medicine at the best of times.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:22pm

    #12
    Ejh237

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    Like minded thoughts

    Chris,

    I'm really glad you posted this update. Last night, i was mulling over the data I was looking at and I said "This thing is doubling nearly every day". This morning, I created nearly the same progression spreadsheet as you did. I showed Cindy the hockey stick chart, and she brought up your "how long to fill the stadium" animation...  we both said, yea... the last 3 minutes.

    Then I found the included picture, and was thinking about things from where the R.O.W. (from the China Perspective) sits:

    Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/coronavirus-market-concerns-mount.html . (NOTE: I added the text and 3 arrows)

    Best of luck to all, hope you have your preparations in place.

    -eric & cindy

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:24pm

    #13
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    CDC page for people under investigation US

    People Under Investigation (PUI) in the United States*†‡

    As of 1/29/2020
    People under Investigation (PUI) in the United States

    Positive
    5

    Negative
    68

    Pending§
    92

    Total
    165

     

    https://www.cdc.gov/media/dpk/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus-2020.html

    36 States have people under investigation (PUI)

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 5:31pm

    #14

    George Karpouzis

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    Just did another store run

    I’ve spent a grand since Thursday

    following the headlines closely

    people watch nervously at the store as I openly speak of a the potential for a pandemic

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 6:44pm

    #15

    lessgovtnow

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    Possible Case in MD

    There's a possible case in Maryland according to its Health Department. I wrote to them asking why they are refusing to disclose if the individual is on travel or State resident, and if he/she's a resident, what county. The response...

    "... due to MDH policies surrounding patient confidentiality, additional patient information cannot be disclosed."

    What county he/she resides in seems vague enough to me.

    Test results still pending from CDC.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 7:27pm

    #16
    jerryr

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    Doubling time?

    Chris, your logarithmic chart in the video implies a doubling time of about two days. How could that possibly be right?

    Considering the very few cases that are reported as either deaths or recovery, it seems that the disease must take at least 30 days to run its course. If during that time each case results in 3.5 new cases, that's one new case every 8.5 days, which would be the basic doubling time. Or, about a multiple of 10 every month. Do you follow me here, or am I misunderstanding something?

    That would lead to an estimate of a little less than 100,000 cases by the end of February. Which is bad, to be sure, but not nearly as bad as 100 million.

    The huge exponential growth in reported cases at this time must be a result of an increasing rate of diagnosis and reporting, not actual growth of the disease. Either that, or the R0 is much higher than the worst reported estimates.

    Or, new cases from each existing case are heavily front-loaded, occurring during the first few days of illness, and then settling down. That doesn't make sense either: why would a person stop transmitting the disease to new victims during the later phases of progression?

    Another important thing to consider, is that the rate of transmission in developed Europe, USA and Australia/NZ may be much lower than in China. The SARS epidemic and Ebola both exhibited this phenomenon. This could either be because of better sanitation and government responsiveness in the West, or (as Larry Romanoff writing at Global Research suggests) because SARS, Ebola and now 2019-nCoV were developed as racially targeted bioweapons. Regardless of the cause, we should wait and see how this develops in the West before jumping to conclusions about the extent of the danger.

    The view expressed by Kit Knightly at OffGuardian, that the figures are being blown all out of proportion as an excuse for enforcing martial law and/or cracking down on social media, deserves some consideration here.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 7:30pm

    #17
    derekadk

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    Gold Coast Australia impacted from a flight from Melbourne

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/first-qld-coronavirus-case-confirmed-patient-isolated-in-gold-coast-university-hospital/news-story/650c2974b53c626d7e0a0b9845bd4a1b

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 7:57pm

    #18
    HaikuJr

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    Okane

    george k spent a grand
    berry cures this virus scare
    is good for some shops

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 8:58pm

    #19
    borderpatrol

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    You’re not gonna die from corona virus in US

    The odds of dying from this virus in US is very small. Very few people in America die from viruses that have no co- morbidities. If you have had a organ transplant, morbidly obese or are immune suppressed and have poor responses too flu infections in the past than you should be concerned and take appropriate measures. I work in a medical ICU and it is very rare that normal people ever end up there, let alone die. Dying from the flu is fear porn. I worked with this patient population for more than 15 years and could work in any medical ICU in the world. This virus so far is not gonna have an major effect on the general population.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 9:05pm

    Alex Earle

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    Response to BorderPatrol

    I don't think you're getting the message here. It's not the phosphorylated "crown" or type of virus that's scary. It's the spread, IN a given time segment. No flu that you or I have encountered has grown geometrically. With only 95,000 ICU beds in the US where do you propose all the 'crtically' sick are going to go?

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 9:48pm

    #21
    jerryr

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    Comments from Dr Daniel Lucey

    UPDATE Wuhan coronavirus – 2019-nCoV Q&A #6: An evidence-based hypothesis

     
    ... the initial emergence of the virus was not the Huanan seafood market. Spread of the virus was already occurring person-to-person in October-November (or earlier) and gradually increasing into December. Thus, some of the 14 of the 41 patients who had no exposure to the Huanan seafood market (see page 3 Figure 1B) would be explained.

    Thus, the presumed rapid spread of the virus apparently for the first time from the Huanan seafood market in December did not occur. Instead the virus was already silently spreading in Wuhan hidden amidst many other patients with pneumonia at this time of year.

    Thus, some of the 14 cases with no exposure to the Huanan market out of the total 41 cases (see article page 3, figure 1B) could be explained by the pre-existing chains of transmission causing ongoing person-to-person transmission and/or transmission from infected animals (1 or more species) in other markets inside and/or outside Wuhan, or anywhere along the supply chain of infected animals.

    [...]

    If in fact the virus was silently spreading unrecognized amidst other types of pneumonia in Wuhan, in the absence of a specific diagnostic test, for several months before its discovery in early January 2020, then the virus was already present across parts of Wuhan and other places in Hubei province, other parts of China, and even in limited numbers to some other countries. Thus, China could not have instituted earlier control measures against an undiscovered virus.

     

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 10:07pm

    #22
    Uki78

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    Bloomberg

    Hey Chris, unless you seen it already, you (your YouTube channel) is linked on a Bloomberg article:

    “On YouTube, a series of videos accusing media organizations of suppressing information had hundreds of thousands of views.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-29/coronavirus-misinformation-is-incubating-all-over-social-media?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

     

     

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 10:40pm

    Montana Native

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    Fake news and racism.....wow

    What a perfect way to delegitimize someone without a single shred of evidence. Absolutely no attempt to counter any claims.....just throw Chris in with the drink bleach for a cure crowd. Shit like this almost makes me want to see this go exponential to show these twits how little they comprehend. Think about Peter Schiff telling the CNBC people that the housing bubble was a disaster back in 2007 as they openly laughed at him. This is seriously a wonderful example of the loss of trust we suffer from. We being free thinking people interested in the possibilities and not the crowd control propaganda. It's all a big joke
    .

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 10:44pm

    #24

    George Karpouzis

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    4 mega cities in China have 100 plus confirmed cases

    Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen

    these cities are reporting 100 plus cases

    God only knows the real numbers

    here’s a scary thought: how long until these cities fall and turn into Wuhan? Can the Chinese really lock down these cities for weeks on end before cratering it’s econony? How long can people last on lockdown in those cities without food or water?

    Scary to think about. Can they prevent the spread to these major cities or is inevitable they will turn Into Wuhan

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 12:44am

    David Henry

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    main stream media response

    Uki78, agreed. I was surprised as I mostly like what I've seen of Bloomberg. Chris/Adam/PeakProsperity's take on this virus has been measured, fact based, restrained and every time Chris has made predictions he has said, these are just predictions. Unfortunately, he's been pretty accurate so far. He has counseled caution, which is a very reasonable course given what we're seeing. Anyway, if he's proven right I'm sure Bloomberg will apologize. Right? Oh, did I lapse into sarcasm there? Oops.

    Being prepared makes me sleep better at night and I'm ready to help my neighbors if they need it. There is no vaccine for Ncov-19 yet (although I'm betting they'll come out with one in record time). But to my way of thinking, reasonable preparation ahead of time and a measure of self-reliance is the best inoculation against panic. Luckily, in this latter respect, I think the PeakProsperity community has already developed herd immunity!

    The info from PP has been really on point and much more in depth than the general media. The possible benefits of elderberry syrup has been an actionable piece of info. I bought enough for my family and a few neighbors...and left the rest on the shelf so someone else could buy it later. Ditto with N95 masks.

    Adam and Chris, keep up the good work!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:05am

    Afridev

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    Limited impact?

    Response to outbreak is often linked to organisational capacity and logistics.

    Case fatality rate from cholera (infection I'm most familiar with, though it was 15-20 years ago I worked with it directly) without proper treatment was around 50% of severe cases, with timely and proper treatment this could be brought back to 1-2%). The low number can be achieved when you have the infrastructure, competent and motivated staff (med and non-med), proper and well-running organisation, and sufficient and adequate equipment and materials.

    From a medical point of view cholera is mostly about keeping people hydrated. Severe cases of cholera can need up to 20 l of IV fluid per day. Keeping a thing like that going needs a good supply chain running. In one case in Mozambique (1998) where we had just started, the hospital was overflowing (almost literally), and one evening they chartered trucks and (unannounced) dumped their 300 patients into our cholera treatment centre that we were still setting up. It took a while to get things under control. The main challenge here was organisation and logistics.

    As long as you're in the capacity of the organisation to manage the outbreak you're pretty much in linear territory and have some level of control. Once you pass the capacity though, control is lost and things start getting their own life; it goes into exponential mode (more chaotic).

    If you have a well-oiled system probably the impact of the outbreak can be managed adequately in developed countries, and fatalities can be minimised. The response system is complicated though and dependent on many things working well (our focus on efficiency undermines our capacity to deal with shocks), and that's not a given if the genie is out of the bottle (and it seems to be well past this point).

    As has also been said here on PP, there will be other systems that are affected by this that may play out in unexpected ways. So I think it is still early days to say that impact of this outbreak will be limited.

     

     

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:12am

    #27
    Andy_S

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    AGREE WITH the ICU MEDIC ABOVE - THIS is LOW-FATALITY

    From all evidence, I think BorderPatrol (above) is right. Though this virus is very infectious, the actual fatality rate in First-World nations appears low. China is bad and will remain bad - because they are overwhelmed. Fear and panic make it worse.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:25am

    #28
    dragonfishy

    dragonfishy

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    Acute onset agoraphobia( avoiding crowds) and OCD (obsessive hand washing), help!

    I went to work in a Sydney hospital yesterday ( with a high number of Chinese overseas visitors amongst them) and wore full PPE all day and that made me the "weird one"

    It's summer and the beaches and bars are humming with barely dressed people.

    The cognitive dissonance I'm experiencing is strong!  The waters lovely this time of year and going to the beach is the antithesis of strong PPE.

    Questions: 1) Is the P95 mask effective or do we really need a P100. We know the genome, it's a question of particle size isn't it?  2) Why do so few people get exponential functions? 3) Please remember to teach people how to remove their PPE safely too... this got some healthcare workers in previous contagions.  Keep up to good work!

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:21am

    #29
    dryam2000

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    Do you feel lucky?

    “Do you feel lucky?”.  “Well, do you punk?”

    I totally get it.  Most people will not die of Coronavirus if infected.  And, it’s probably the case that it only hits the hardest when people are older, already have poor general health (obesity included), or are smokers.  However, some younger healthy people will also become very sick & possibly die because of an exaggerated response of their immune system.

    The thing about almost every young healthy person is that they have older moms, dads, grandparents, aunts, uncles, friends, etc who might not be in the best of health, are smokers, are very obese, etc.

    I’m a physician & take care of hospitalized patients.  I’ve seen enough patients die or become extremely ill from the flu.  I will never forget a 26yo previously very healthy patient I had that eventually left the hospital with a tracheotomy & feeding tube in place  after a 4 week admission for the flu.  The irony is she was diagnosed with the flu within a day of symptoms & promptly received a prescription for Tamiflu.  Tamiflu is pretty effective in decreasing severity & duration of symptoms when taken promptly after symptoms appear but has to be within 2-3 days for any effect.  She elected not to fill that prescription because she didn’t want to spend the $75.  The kicker is she had perfectly manicured nails.  Those manicures cost at least $75+ from what the nurses told me.

    So, do you feel lucky?  Well, do you punk?

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:41am

    #30
    Niteowl41

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    Recovery rate conundrum

    Just wondering why the recovery rate quoted is lower than the death rate.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Does it take longer to recover than to die?

    Sorry if this is basic stuff for you learned folks but I can't understand this atm

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:41am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Bloomberg Journalists Got That One Very Wrong

    “On YouTube, a series of videos accusing media organizations of suppressing information had hundreds of thousands of views.”

    I never accused them of any such thing.

    I did expose how "media organizations" were using horribly misleading statistics that always served to downplay the risks here.

    And it's true that I did scroll through their online offerings noting that their coverage of the virus was woefully inadequate given those risks.

    What I said was that if one got their coronavirus info from "media organizations" you were either going to be misinformed or uninformed.

    That assessment stands.

    MSM has proven itself to have become utterly incapable of being useful here, and I'm sorry the Bloomberg "journalists" took it personally, but that's on them and their chosen profession.

    Is that harsh?  With any luck, yes, and correctively so.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:56am

    #32
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    CHRIS - WHY NOT EMPHASIZE it is LOW-FATALITY?

    The fast spread of the virus is alarming - and I see many who are inducing fear by playing up that side of things. You have a chance to balance that by letting people know that fatalities are low. If you are the one guy consistently doing this - I feel you will gain a lot of traction. Fear and panic make this thing worse. Be the truly "balanced" guy - like your friend John Barry.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:57am

    #33
    Matties

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    Facts...

    11% mortality rate in hospital patients worsened in a short period of time
    and died of multiple organ failure.
    17% patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome which is a indication of mortality rate outside hospital.
    https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf

    Confirmed superspreaders, like with SARS, carrying nCoV 2019 but no symptom but spreading the disease.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:57am

    #34
    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Recovery rate conundrum

    Just wondering why the recovery rate quoted is lower than the death rate.

    This has come up a lot so let me take a shot at answering it.

    It begins by making sure we have our terms agreeably defined.

    "Infected" -  this means someone with or without symptoms who tests positive for nCoV.

    "Death" - means someone who has tested positive for nCoV dies within a defined window of time relative to the symptoms of an active nCoV infection.

    "Recovered" -what does this mean exactly?  I don't know, and cannot find it defined anywhere.  In theory it should be "anyone and everyone who was infected with nCoV but isn't sick and has circulating antibodies produced by their own body."

    With a huge number of people recovering naturally and at home, this cannot be the definition as it's being used in the official statistics.  I suspect what they mean is "anyone who was hospitalized in serious condition but got better and is not ambulatory and discharged."

    But that's just a guess.

    Assuming that's a correct guess, then "recovered" is a small subset of the total population of infected persons.

    There are lots of ways for all of these numbers to be wildly off.

    Many infected people may never be detected because the test kits just weren't available (this is quite possibly a very large number).

    Deaths could be wrongly recorded, either by not being recorded at all, or because the death cert was filled out wrong (e.g. "pneumonia" rather than "nCoV viral pneumonia").

    Recovered is going to fluctuate depending on where the clinical line is drawn on that definition (which should include everyone infected) and upon cases being accurately detected and so forth.

    I truly believe this virus can be effectively treated in a properly equipped and functioning medical center.  The ex-China data tells us that.  As AfriDev explained, that depends on the medical system not being overwhelmed.

    Which is my main concern.  The China data is very concerning.  China did not just shut down it's largest and most economically important cities for no good reason...they had the data...which they are not sharing with us unfortunately.

    So we have to squint through the fog and try to assess the severity by their actions, which are quite extraordinary.  Nothing ordinary about this at all.

     

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:10am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Low Fatality

    The fast spread of the virus is alarming – and I see many who are inducing fear by playing up that side of things. You have a chance to balance that by letting people know that fatalities are low. If you are the one guy consistently doing this – I feel you will gain a lot of traction. Fear and panic make this thing worse. Be the truly “balanced” guy – like your friend John Barry.

    I have and continue to.  Check out this video release from 1/28/20 from the 1:13 mark onwards: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMXcMtqH8ak&t=326s

    But let me ask you something because I really need an answer.  How does "fear and panic make this thing worse"?

    It's a legit question.  I hear that view of yours a lot.  It's usually presented as if it's a universally accepted truth.   Something that all rational people just know and accept.

    But now I'm asking for a concrete answer to this question; "How do fear and panic harm more than help addressing a contagion?"

    Specifically, what is it that happens that makes things worse if people are motivated by fear or panic?  Riots?  Muggings?  Suicides?

    What happens?  Specifically.  Give me examples, please, nice concrete ones because those work for me.

    If we de-tune your emotionally laden words ("fear" and "panic") a touch I believe there's another set of words that might apply; "concerned" and "alarmed."

    If there's smoke pouring into my bedroom I want to become concerned and alarmed as fast as possible if that leads me to take actions that will motivate me towards safety.

    So what would happen if people became aware of the risks of this virus?  What bad things would result if people got knocked out of their complacent slumber and were suddenly motivated to take actions?

    Well they might:

    • Read more and become educated
    • Discuss this openly with friends and family and co-workers
    • Be motivated to actually employ the better hygiene practices recommended by the CDC
    • Begin to use appropriate social distancing to prevent the spread of disease.

    All of those are good things.

    Are you suggesting that people already do those things but that "fear and panic" might cause them to do the opposite?  or would it be more subtle, like they might buy things or undertake preparations that turned out to be unnecessary and they would then feel slightly awkward or embarrassed later on around their friends who are quietly snickering tat them for being 'alarmist'?

    In closing, I will note that FEMA cannot get more 3% of people living on top of active faults to prepare for an earthquake by buying a $100, 48-hour emergency kit.   And they try too.

    So what in your mind is the appropriate way to break through people's normal defenses against behavior changes and inactivity?

    My approach is to use the data, as it exists, with a calm and rational explanation.  But I'm not going to 'de-tune' those facts simply to avoid upsetting someone because I know that feeling inner turmoil from time to time isn't the end of the world and is actually a healthy part of the process to decamp from one set of behavioral ruts and into new behaviors.

    But I remain stumped so let me ask it again; what specifically happens that is bad if people become somewhat alarmed by the facts at hand?

    Beside feeling temporarily uncomfortable and maybe having to experience emotions, I mean.

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:39am

    #36
    Andy_S

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    HOW FEAR & PANIC make THINGS WORSE

    As you know, after studying this situation quite intensively, my take is that this virus is very infectious - but also low fatality (especially outside China).

    How do fear and panic make it worse? Right now China is the best example of this.

    Firstly - everyone with a "sniffle" overloads the hospital system and much time is wasted checking every possible case. Second - the entire economy shuts down over something that actually has a low chance of killing people. Thirdly - authorities overreact in just about every possible way - spooking the masses even more.

    We all know that an overloaded hospital system is much less effective. Fear and panic make this "overloading" and inefficiency much more likely. They clog up the system and make everything "reactionary" instead of orderly.

    If the Chinese economy slumps over this thing - it will be more because of FEAR - than the actual virus itself. Fear can kill.

    -Andy

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:52am

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Fear and Panic

    As you know, after studying this situation quite intensively, my take is that this virus is very infectious – but also low fatality (especially outside China).

    You are missing critical data here.

    The "serious complication rate" (SCR) is 20%.  It's not "fear and panic" that are overloading the hospital system it's critically ill patients.

    The 'fear and panic' is actually causing the usually crammed streets of Shanghai and Beijing to be entirely abandoned - exactly what you'd  want to see if combating a contagion.

    But I think you are missing just how terrible this virus really is.  The 20% SCR is really awful.

    And I take your point about not wanting to see hospitals overloaded with people with sniffles and such.  That's a fair point.  Which is where an effective program of education is required.  People need to know what they are learning here.  Namely, don't ever go to a hospital during a pandemic unless you really, really have to!

    And to avoid the pandemic coming, people need to know this is a beast of a virus.  It is not "a low fatality" illness.  You have that very wrong.

    It is a highly contagious disease with a ridiculously high SCR that is an order of magnitude-times-three more fatal than the flu.  Don't be fooled by the low deaths outside China yet.  If the CFR is 3% all we'd expect so far would be 2-3 deaths.  Fewer if the age cohorts were skewed younger.

    Which means we really, really don't want it to gain a foothold and  rampage across any territory it hasn't already conquered.

    Which mean we need people to have an appropriate level of alarm so they will be receptive to learning some new behaviors.

    It is your view that I think paves the way for the virus to come here and get going.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:04am

    #38
    Andy_S

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    ARE YOU SAYING FEAR and PANIC DON'T MAKE IT WORSE?

    From what I know of any emergency, fear and panic ALWAYS make things worse. Sometimes the panic actually kills more than the emergency itself. This thing has all the hallmarks of that kind of situation.

    And by the way, I regard that "serious complication rate" as far from proven or reliable. I bet that SCR figure proves to be much lower outside China. We will only know after several more weeks.

    Meantime - I remain opposed to anything that heightens fear in people - because ultimately I believe it does more harm than good.

    -Andy

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:09am

    #39
    Tim Puffer

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    Stay away from the airports?

    Has anyone seen any news of the case in Arizona at all? I'm supposed to be flying out to Phoenix next Thursday for a conference. I've considered not going so that I stay away from the airports. Part of my thought to not go is that my wife is supposed to go and she is 16 weeks pregnant. Would it be wise to not go, or is that overthinking this too much?

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:11am

    Matties

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    Matties said:

    Give people a fighting chance to prepare. And that is only possible when they are informed. Did you look at the publications in the Lancet which i provided the links for in the post Facts... above ? This virus is doing havoc in the older population.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:13am

    #41
    borderpatrol

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    I feel lucky, mortality here will be low, numbers could be be very high though

    There is no doubt that we could have huge number of cases of this low fatality virus. People forget that we have huge numbers of people that are chronically sick are would be dead dead in other countries. These are the people that will end up in the ICU’s cause I see it all the time, this is my job and I take care of the sickest patients in our state. They are lifeflighted from all over. it beyond rare that a normal healthy person ends up in the ICU from the flu.  I’ve done this too long, I have no concerns with here in the states.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:21am

    #42
    Andy_S

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    I AGREE WITH the ICU MEDIC (ABOVE)

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this virus (outside China) has a fatality rate less than 2%. But it will be weeks before we know for sure.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:23am

    gnltabor

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    Low fatality outside China... so far so good.

    In Chris's video update yesterday he projected the number infected would rise to almost 6,700.  This site posted the new number at almost 7,800 at 9pm EST last night!  This site is from Johns Hopkins CSSV.  Key information provided:

    Upper Left:  Total infected as of Jan 29 reached 7,783, and the breakdown by country.  The count outside China is now over 100.

    Lower Left:  In Yellow, the graph of the spread shows 10 data points. If the virus lasts for 7 days, only the first 3 data points have outcomes yet we are hearing only a 3% death rate.

    Upper Right:  The outcomes to date.  With only 10 data points listed, the death toll exceeds the number of recoveries.

    Right Margin:  A scrolling bar providing the breakdown of number of infections and deaths by Chinese Province and country from most to least, showing the number of infections and deaths.

    Lower Right:  Date and time stamp of the current version.  1/29 at 9:00pm EST.

    Center:  Visualization map showing the epicenter is clearly in Hubei province, and Wuhan, it's capital city near the Three Gorges Lake and Yangtse River.

     

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:35am

    MarkM

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    Less than 2%

    So, let's assume a 10% infected rate worldwide and a 1.5% death rate.

    That will be over 11 million dead. Just your average flu year :).

    Nobody really knows where this will go, only time will tell. Let's hope the optimists are correct. In the mean time, prudent people should prepare for a bad scene, just in case.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:38am

    #45

    gnltabor

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    Johns Hopkins CCSV nCoV-2019 Tracking Site

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:42am

    #46
    borderpatrol

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    I don’t trust SCR data

    Data doesn’t give us the details,  skill level underlying health problems etc. The reason I don’t trust the numbers is cause I don’t trust numbers given on the flu fatalities over the years, they don’t add up in my practice.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:46am

    #47
    dryam2000

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    Borderpatrol

    Bordepatrol,

    Not sure if my post above translated to you.

    I have very little concern about Coronavirus in regards to my own health.

    I do have significant concerns about the health of family members, friends, colleagues, etc. who do not have the best health now.  If there’s essentially no treatment, then that leaves prevention.  If someone gets to the point they need to be on a ventilator from this virus, I don’t like that person’s chances.

    Running ventilators & giving pressors is far removed from public health policy.  I get it, most intensivists. are conditioned to be somewhat numb to bad diseases thinking that nothing new is going to be much different than the past.  It’s a form of normalcy bias.

    What I’m seeing with Chris M. is exercising much caution until more is known because IF this virus is a very bad one people can be prudent in their actions.  Once the horse is out of the barn, it’s out of the barn.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:47am

    Chris Martenson

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    Yes, I think You've Got This Dead Wrong

    Meantime – I remain opposed to anything that heightens fear in people – because ultimately I believe it does more harm than good.

    I'm going to challenge you here because you have it pretty much dead wrong.

    Here are two cases, fear and no fear.

    No fear:  People don't even know what the risk is, and so they don't change any behaviors.  They walk around, they cough and sneeze without even covering up, they shake hands and then touch their faces before washing their hands.  They congregate, and they don't use any proper hygiene.  Tens of millions get infected, hundreds of thousands develop severe complications, and tens of thousands die many of them unnecessarily because the hospital system gets overloaded.

    Fear:  People 'get it' and because they cannot see virus particles they come to fear what they can't see.  So they develop an overabundance of caution.  They socially shame people who cough and sneeze without wearing face masks.  They don't shake and and touch escalator railings, doorknobs, etc., without immediately using hand santizer that they now carry with them everywhere.  They forgo large gatherings, and places where congregation would unnecessarily expose them to higher odds of being near an infected person, symptomatic or otherwise.  Because of  a vastly slower progression through the population, the contagion does not swamp the hospital system and many more people live.

    I think your view is wrong when it comes to this subject, and possibly a little bit patronizing.  I trust my fellow citizens to do they best they can if given the full and complete information, it seems you do not?

    And by the way, if the facts make someone fearful and panicky, the problem isn't with the facts.

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:48am

    Quercus bicolor

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    Good discussion

    Andy, you bring up some interesting and important points that are worth discussing.  Thank you.

    I have some thoughts I want to throw into the fray.  First, I think it's important to agree on exactly what we mean by fear and panic.  Do we mean intense fear that could motivate us to make irrational decisions?  While even that has it's place (think some situations that call for escaping immediate danger to life and limb), I think we can all agree, it doesn't help in a more slowly unfolding situation or some quickly unfolding ones (such as a fire in a crowded building).

    Or do we mean an appropriate level of fear, enough to motivate us, but not to cause panic?  And, yes, some people may be able to react appropriately without fear, at least fear that is visible to others, and maybe even without fear that is visible to themselves.

    I think we can also agree that complacency that stems from lack of information or overly sanitized information can and does prevent people from taking prudent action to avoid danger and avert or at least reduce the severity of unfolding crises.  Chris addressed that in his first of the two posts just a bit earlier in this thread.

    So where is the sweet spot between these two extremes?  How do we calibrate the message to motivate as many people as possible to take urgent, but rational preventative and preparatory action that may be motivated by some degree of fear, but minimize the chance that people will panic?

    Would that be something like what the mainstream media is doing?  The Chinese Government?  Chris?  Some combination of them or calibrated version of one of them?  Something completely different?

    I'm hoping we can have an honest discussion about that.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:54am

    #50

    thc0655

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    Comedic interlude

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:56am

    #51

    Oliveoilguy

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    Replace Fear with Bravery....Panic with Preparation

    It takes courage to confront trouble, but first trouble has to be recognized. Kudos to PP for having the vision to see Coronavirus through an objective lens.
    The information we get from the powers that be is at best spun to their needs. Disinformation breeds fear. Truth is a precondition to preparation.
    My preps are as follows:

    Frequent hand washing......Avoidance of Crowds..... Having N95 masks and disinfectant with me..... No discretionary air travel......No unnecessary restaurant exposure....Stocking up on a few food stores.....having ample clean water.....Just common sense laying low.  And other than that..... Living as Normal.

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:56am

    #52

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Fear vs Ignorance

    Fear kills and “I have no concerns here in the states.”

    Great, continue to live your life as usual, keep our economy going by shopping, shopping, shopping, frequenting your normal public places and whistle a happy tune.

    A couple of years ago my Mother-In-Law went to the emergency room and she received an IV on a gurney in the hallway. Yep, no beds, or rooms were available. And that was during the “good” times. A nurse friend tells me when a hospital/Emergency Department is full the ambulances are directed to re-route patients to alternate hospitals. It happens regularly and we are not currently experiencing any kind of crisis.

    And the suggestion of - lets not say anything to make people afraid is just silly!  Ignorance kills ever so many more people than fear.  The way to overcome ignorance is education. The way to overcome fear is action!

    Andy, I suggest you DON’T discuss this subject with anyone as it could conjure up fearful feelings and you would be contributing to harm their calm.

    Just think, shouting from the roof tops about the realities of this situation might get people to take notice, make some preparations, change their habits or routine and wash their hands.  And, a few lives will no doubt be saved. Dam, saving lives, thats good!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:58am

    #53
    isjrb029

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    Just out last night

    My take is that they are keep the information down as to not affect the markets.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-airways-ends-all-flights-china-virus-spreads-middle-east

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:07am

    #54
    Andy_S

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    REALITY vs "FEARFUL" REALITY

    What is the reality of this situation? Very likely that the ones most in danger of death from this thing are the old, the infirm, the sickly, etc. Is that sad and tragic? Yes it is. My parents are 80 years old. I don't want anyone to die. Believe me.

    But what will "over-fearfulness" cause if this thing hits a major economy like Japan or the USA? Well - everyone will panic. Economy shuts down. No-one goes out. Hospitals overloaded with people who are not deathly sick but are demanding attention. -Thousands of them. It actually can wreck the entire country for months on end. Is that fatal? - You bet. A dying economy is even more fatal than this virus appears to be.

    That's how fear kills. And I can see it happening here very easily.

    Spread knowledge - yes. Spread fear - no.

    -Andy

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:12am

    #55

    thc0655

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    Interesting timeline of Chinese govt response

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:18am

    #56

    Snydeman

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    Fear vs Respect

    Perhaps we have to change our vocabulary usage here. I don't yet fully fear the corona virus in my locale, because nothing has indicated it is here, directly affecting and infecting people. Yet, based on the facts (rapid spread, potential mortality and severe illness rates) and anecdotal evidence (China shutting down entire cities, information blackouts, and countries closing their borders, etc), I am convinced I should give a healthy respect, born of mild fear, to the potential deadly nature of this virus. What that means is I should be tracking its spread, taking precautions ahead of time, and passing along a certain amount of my fears about its potential to others, in the hopes that they will translate that fear into respect and change their own behaviors to further inhibit the spread.

    Do the police carry guns because they fear being jacked up or attacked every moment of every day? No. But the officers I know speak of an underlying low level of fear that it could happen on any given day, which means they respect the danger enough to go about armed and always aware.

     

    What you are talking about, Andy, is the irrational kind of fear more than the healthy kind, and your continual reference to fear as if it is an on-off switch rather than a spectrum is an incorrect way to look at it, in my opinion. There's not enough evidence for extreme fear, but there is enough evidence for mild fear that leads to respecting the power this thing might have...especially if that leads us to change our behaviors to include better hygiene, etc.

     

    -S

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:38am

    #57
    PaulJam

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    article on chinese govt response

    This is a fascinating read about the ineptness of the response of the chinese governement.  Classic science vs politics.

    http://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:45am

    #58

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    It’s The Narrative

    “Spread knowledge – yes. Spread fear – no”

    Ahhh, so the real issue is - control!  Who controls the narrative?  Who gets to decide what we should know, think, do, how to behave, when to act, when to be concerned, and who should know.

    Really, keeping people in the dark and dribbling out tiny bits and pieces of information causes fear.  Real information gives people an opportunity to act. Those who try to control, because they think they know better are controlling the populace with fear.  Treat people with respect, as adults, give them the truth.  Control the narrative to protect the health of the economy over the health of the people will lead to the same conclusion. Only people will suffer more.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:57am

    #59

    Eannao

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    Lockdown of western cities

    Chris and others,

    What would you rate the probability that western cities will need to be locked down as is happening in China? What would you estimate the timeline to be? What needs to happen for this outcome to be avoided?

    Thanks, E

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:01am

    #60
    Time2help

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    Good news!

    Big green candle at market open. All is well, carry on.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:19am

    Eannao

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    Cognitive dissonance

    Dear all,

    I'm sure I'm not alone in experiencing severe cognitive dissonance at the moment. I live in London and my wife and I are due to go on our long-awaited honeymoon tomorrow evening (to the Maldives and Sri Lanka). Here in London it's business as usual. Nobody is wearing facemasks and the only sign of anything untoward is that hand-sanitser is sold out in most of the pharmacies. There has been no official warnings about travel (other than to China), so it would seem that all is well for us to fly out tomorrow. Yet when I look at the reports from Chris I can see that the situation could potentially explode over the two weeks while we are away. We could be coming back to a very different London to the one we are leaving now. Rather than jetting off on honeymoon, should we in fact be getting our preparations in place for a lockdown of the city? I dont' want to be rash and cancel our trip (at considerable loss) for this pandemic to turn out to be no worse than a bad flu. And equally, I don't want to be sitting on a beach watching the news unfold and realise that we are in a precarious position.

    Advice and insights greatly appreciated.

    E

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:23am

    #62
    Tadhg O'Sullivan

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    Dublin Hospital 'may have a case of Coronavirus', doctor tells High Court

    https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/other/dublin-hospital-may-have-a-case-of-coronavirus-doctor-tells-high-court/ar-BBZu1Dz?ocid=ientp

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:33am

    #63
    borderpatrol

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    What they don’t tell you, three case studies

    First patient, less than thirty years old. Admitted for pneumonia, prolonged mechanical ventilation, had strep pneumo and influenza A. Required tracheotomy and dialysis and likely month or two of physical rehab . What they don’t tell you, patient had ttp (thrombotic thrombocytopenia purpura) and it required a splenectomy. Spleens a good thing, strep is for most part taken care by spleen and one gets very septic often requiring mechanical ventilation and dialysis, vasopressors, etc. With spleen, one rarely requires hospitalization. Patient two, morbidly obese male, less then forty years old with undiagnosed right sided heart failure and sleep apnea. Admitted for shortness of breath and presumed viral pneumonia. Extremely poor response to pneumonia with ARD’s (acute respiratory distress syndrome) that required extreme mechanical ventilation and dialysis. Patient didn’t recover with less than three weeks of hospitalization.  What they didn’t tell you, sleep apnea was so bad that patient slept straight up in chair and would prop himself on some kind of table. Patient had difficulty staying awake and heart was pretty much shot due to pulmonary hypertension. Patient three, less than 60 year old male with metapneumovirus. Patient required ICU admission due high oxygen requirements. What they didn’t tell you, patient had lymphoma five years previous with stem cell transplant and recovery coarse going poorly with graft verses host disease and other problems associated with treatments. See, three benign viral infections that had very severe reactions cause they had significant other health problems they don’t going into on. Meanwhile, enjoy your Cheerios loaded with roundup, cause we don’t care about quality and health. If anyone thinks we remotely care about health, purposely ignores how awful the quality of food we choose to consume. To me, all the emphasis on this infections and vaccines is a joke, cause high consumption of sugars and vegetable oils and CAFO meats causes far more deaths that by huge margins and nobody caress. Sure is good for business though, costs have never been higher with very poor return in the buck.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:35am

    #64

    Mark Cochrane

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    Concern versus complacency

    A good debate and well reasoned arguments and responses.

    It is interesting that Andy's stand against fear is based on his own fear that people's actions (or over-reactions) to this virus might harm the economy.

    I agree with the sentiments of Granny and Snydeman about fear versus ignorance or respect. We treat too much in this world as either this or that (false dichotomy) versus one of degree between points.

    I don’t see that Chris is peddling fear so much as educated concern about an emerging problem to be managed, whereas Andy seems to be arguing for complacency in the hope that nothing bad will happen.

    As I see it, concern leads to becoming more informed and allows for a measured level of preparation. Stated otherwise, a person has power (agency – in science lingo) to make rational choices. If everything works out fine then what is the problem? People have more masks, hand sanitizer and food than they would have had. They are better prepared for any future pandemics and, hey, they stimulated the economy a bit more in the mean time.

    Complacency, on the other hand, leads to sleepwalking right up until a potential crisis. People will remain totally unprepared and ignorant of what the virus is or how to deal with it. This is exactly what will lead to the unreasoned fear response Andy is concerned about, since a populace that is totally unprepared that suddenly realizes or suspects they are in danger will respond out of unreasoned fear. The only way this works out well is if the current virus is totally benign.

    Color me skeptical that this outbreak is much ado about nothing. I don’t think that China is quarantining 50 million people and sabotaging their own economy for the fun of it. Time will tell what the final spread rates and mortality figures are for this virus but the chances that this is just another flu are vanishingly small. It is a serious health challenge. Neither is it the Black Death though. The question is where in between things are and who is most at risk.

    We can comfort ourselves in thinking that our medical systems and government actions will be much better than the Chinese but the main advantage that we have is time to plan and learn about the virus before it becomes a major problem for our countries so we can respond more effectively. The “ineptness of the response of the Chinese government” (PaulJam) will become a case study for the future but would the US or any other nation have done better given the circumstances? Perhaps, but just look at the US response to Hurricane Katrina and the flooding of New Orleans for another example of government ineptness spawning a debacle.

    Given what I’ve learned to date, I am less likely to run to the emergency room if anyone in my family gets ill, barring more serious complications, but I am concerned for my mother and other elderly relatives.

    I see what Chris is doing here as providing an inoculation against unreasoned fear for those who actually listen to what he is saying and who act accordingly to take actions in accord with their personal situations and levels of concern.

    My two cents…

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:38am

    #65
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    SOLUTION - ISOLATE the OLD PEOPLE

    I am only proposing this for places that actually have the pandemic running loose. (Which could be a number soon).

    Instead of shutting down whole cities and whole economies - we tell people to isolate those who are most vulnerable - the old, the sickly - and only let certain people (with washed hands) in to see them. They are cared for in quarantine until the virus blows over.

    This is better by far than telling EVERYONE to stay home - or shutting whole cities down.

    Why could not this be done?

    -Andy

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:47am

    #66

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 613

    Maybe because...

    Not every old person has others who check in on them, and therefore who would need to get out to get medications and food? Just throwing it out there...I came up with that in about 5 seconds, by the way. I suggest doing some deep thinking about solutions and writing a pro-con list after some solid research and pondering.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:47am

    #67
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    Posts: 396

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    Borderpatrol, what you didn’t say

    Case studies are nearly worthless in concluding anything meaningful.  Baffling people with fancy medical language does not lend support to one’s position.

    BTW, I totally agree with you about the irrational thinking & behavior people have in regards to their long term health....not being obese, not smoking, flossing, minimizing consumption of simple carbohydrates, eating healthy meats in moderation, not eating the unhealthy fats, eating the healthy fats such as avocados & walnuts almonds cashews etc., regular physical activity, etc. , eating plenty of vegetables and some fruits.

    However, I believe your post is mixing issues & says nothing about the issue at hand.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:49am

    #68

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    4+

    Eanno

    Congratulations to you and your wife on your nuptials.

    No one can make the decision for you regarding your honeymoon.  The two of you will have to decide together how you will approach your life.  Cautiously, pragmatically, taking advantage if the calm or are you more prone to live life to its fullest, take some chances and enjoy the thrill of adventure.  There is no right or wrong just an opportunity to decide how you, together, will approach your life.

    Best of luck, happy deciding - together!

    AKGrannyWGrit

    PS - we would live to know what you decide.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:57am

    #69

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 189

    Pure comedy headline

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/ezekiel-emanuel-on-coronavirus-americans-need-to-stop-panicking.html

    I don’t see anyone in a panic lol

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:58am

    DavidSV

    DavidSV

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    Isolate/sacrifice the super-spreaders!

    That assumes you can find them.   But seriously, here's a write up about super-spreaders and includes one anecdotal case of a 2019-ncov spreader that is reported to have infected at least 14 people.
    https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-super-spreader-an-infectious-disease-expert-explains-130756

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:58am

    #71
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    Posts: 396

    4+

    “Do you feel lucky”

    Btw, for those who do not know what I was referring to I was referring to this Clint Eastwood movie...

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:03am

    #72
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    ISOLATE the OLD - ONLY SERIOUS ALTERNATIVE

    Somebody mocked this idea - without suggesting anything else instead. But just think about it. The only option being tried right now is shutting EVERYTHING down - whole cities and economies.

    Why not just isolate those most at-risk until it blows over? (I know you can't protect everyone this way - but at least a high number).

    If you have a better plan, I am all ears. But you need to spell it out.

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:31am

    borderpatrol

    borderpatrol

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    What I did say

    three cases of severely poor responses to benign viral infections.  For the vast majority of the population, these infections are not a problem, in fact a benefit, because a person builds antibodies and has immunity with exposure, as explained in the interview.   I felt that the devil is in the details.  If we don't see that only people with underling health problems are the ones that show up in the stats, then we tend to overestimate severity of problem.  Fear is created to control us, the less informed we are, the more easily we are controlled. We are spending huge amounts of money with very little to show with it.  If a society thinks it's more important to spend huge amounts of money on people that are chronically sick and ignore foods and habits that lead to sickness, we will be on a treadmill to a bankrupt society. We are there now, fear has allowed us at the whims of medical establishment and their partners in the insurance industry. See all those commercials for medications for auto immune diseases, they only manage them, are no cure and leave you at risk other problems like infections.  Does anyone care why we have them, they don't cause it's the golden goose, those med's are at the top for profit's for big pharma.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:37am

    #74
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    10+

    Many Americans Have Chronic Illnesses

    As a doctor with an MPH degree, I would like to point out that many Americans do have at least one chronic illness. Over 10% have type 2 diabetes, millions have an autoimmune disease (most hypothyroidism is autoimmune, and many have colitis, MS, psoriasis, 1% have celiac disease, etc.) Morbid obesity rates are high, in some states more than others, and the population has been aging. So, yes, I think we are relatively susceptible, though perhaps pollution in China makes the disease worse for them.

    On the topic of censorship, the Event 201 website has a 12 minute video worth watching. In their remarkably prescient pandemic exercise, one topic that generated abundant discussion was the control of information and misinformation. I think the argument on this site is that one might want to secure one’s investments as part of preparation, and some might believe that that would unnecessarily crash the stock market. I think TBTP are saying that it’s better overall for us to be unprepared - either they’ll figure out someway to help us, or there’s nothing that can be done anyways. Of course it would be better if everyone were prepared to spend a couple of months sheltering in place, but that isn’t going to happen, and if that’s a fact, then it will be chaos anyways.

    I also have some thoughts on the death toll. As Chris has been doing, we need to factor into our calculations the fact that only about 4% of the American population gets influenza every year. That’s because most of us already have some level of immunity. But this is a new virus that most of us will be susceptible to. And the flu doesn’t go away when coronavirus strikes. So we’re looking at potentially tripling or worse the number critically ill people in this country. And you need supplies and medications or at least IVs for these patients. And 80% of raw materials for medications come from China. And how about staff, you can’t just triple everyone’s workload in ICUs across the nation without critically overworking them. With all due respect for my colleagues, I don’t see how this is going to go well.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:40am

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

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    No, that was me

    "Somebody" didn't mock you, I did. Not because you proposed an alternate solution, but because you didn't seem to spend any time thinking it through; a process that you will find will get you eviscerated 'round these parts. The solution you propose has many flaws that can be exposed with a minimum of thought.

    Answer for me these questions:

    What age is the cut-off line?

    Who decides that?

    What about older people without family supports, or anyone who could actually come to care for them?

    How do you propose we enforce your proposal?

    What would be the consequences for those old people who go out anyway?

    Why are you ignoring the facts that young people are catching this virus too?

    I mean, are you willfully ignoring the data showing it isn't just elderly catching this thing? Or do you mean to only prevent the elderly dying from it? Because what I'm seeing tells me the young die too, if not given adequate and intense medical attention.

     

    Here's my proposal: Cut off all flights inbound or outbound from China. Isolate and quarantine those who are arriving, under humane and livable conditions. Educate the populace to take this seriously and change their hygiene, social patterns, and behaviors a little now, so they won't have to change them a lot later.

     

    For the record I think it's too late. The cat is out of the bag. But I hope I'm wrong.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:52am

    #76
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 61

    I AGREE - THE CAT is OUT OF THE BAG

    My proposal was in the case of full pandemic - simply an alternative to shutting down EVERYTHING. I still think it is better than complete lockdown.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:53am

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 192

    15+

    Things To Consider Re: Travel Plans

    Hi E,
    First of all, congratulations on your marriage.  How untimely all this is for you.

    I have several trips scheduled in the next little while including a major vacation in a couple of weeks, so I appreciate your question.  Here’s what I think is worth considering in no particular order:

    ~ How prepared are you already for the pandemic?  Would you be better off staying home and preparing further in case this situation really does become major where you live.

    ~ Where are you going and what will you be doing when you get there?  From my perspective this probably isn’t the greatest time to be sightseeing in the middle of Bangkok for example.  If you will be doing something more remote that does not involve large crowds, then that’s a different story.  If you are going to a country that typically gets lots of visitors from China for Chinese New Years, they may have more Corona virus cases than are currently reported.

    ~ What level of trust do you have in the medical system of the countries you are visiting should you get sick?

    ~ Will you have access to news where you are going and can you abort your trip if necessary and return home early?  Will you be able to communicate with friends and family from where you are going?

    ~ How important is it for you to stick to your planned schedule or would you be okay if your return home was delayed by the events at hand?  Along with that consider your level of emotional & financial resilience if you were to suddenly be stranded in an unfamiliar city for a period of time.

    ~ How healthy are you currently?  Someone with a history of lung issues or a compromised immune system would likely be taking more of risk traveling right now than at other times.

    ~ Are you prepared for flying at this time?  In my opinion people flying should have at a minimum a supply of N95 masks, hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes.  I would also bring all of my own food for the plane travel portion of the trip.

    ~ Will you be able to enjoy your trip or will your attention be split because of what's going on?  This is a big one for me personally with the vacation and not so much for the work trips I have scheduled.

    This is a tough and very personal decision.  We just don’t know what will happen since we are at the beginning of this pandemic. I have not yet decided what I will do.

    I wish you well in your decision making.

    --Suzie

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:15am

    #78
    sanrdajc

    sanrdajc

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 1

    7+

    Texas Travel-Cruise

    As some of you have asked previously, I too have a vacation cruise in 2 weeks exactly. I woke up this morning and the quarantined cruise from Italy is the headliner. I live in Texas....wondering if I should skip this highly anticipated trip. It's a 4 day cruise from the port here in south Texas to Cozumel and then back?

    I guess we will see where we're at as the day gets closer but i'm honestly upset there maybe a chance I wont be going after all. Any input? By the way, I'm grateful I found your videos Chris which led me here. 🙂

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:21am

    #79

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    3+

    Andy a Suggestion

    Andy, you might be right.  Perhaps rather than a lockdown would be to give people information and a choice.

    For instance in John Barry’s 1st podcast with Chris he talked about the shutting down of schools.  But then young people would do what young people do and go out and say, play some basket ball.  So quarantines help but the long-term outcome may, possibly be very similar to no quarantines.  However, many people want the truth and to make their own informed decisions.

    Perhaps its a crap shoot, but I want the odds in my favor.

     

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:35am

    #80

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    1+

    News Out Of Hong Kong

    I saw this story, which lead me to an online source in Hong Kong.

    https://www.hongkongfp.com/2020/01/30/wuhan-conoravirus-improvised-barricades-across-china-online-shaming-spreads/

    Some of the other articles are interesting. I'm assuming that being in Hong Kong, their reporters get information out of the hot zone, that makes it past the censors.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:42am

    DavidSV

    DavidSV

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 29 2011

    Posts: 43

    Which/Best of Event 201 Videos that are a must watch?

    Myrto, which of the many Event 201 Videos are you referring to?

    http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:49am

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

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    Matties said:

    Confirmed superspreaders, like with SARS, carrying nCoV 2019 but no symptom but spreading the disease.
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:55am

    tourcarve

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 45

    3+

    "And by the way, if the facts make someone fearful and panicky..."

    "And by the way, if the facts make someone fearful and panicky, the problem isn’t with the facts."

    Chris - That is a fine and useful thought.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:56am

    #84
    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    4+

    Every little bit helps...try eating low sodium diet for better immune function

     

    Entire article free online

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25497276

    Plain english: high sodium diet increases chances of immune overreaction.  Low sodium diet helps with more optimally modulated immune/cytokine response.

    Effects of dietary salt levels on monocytic cells and immune responses in healthy human subjects: a longitudinal study.

    Abstract

    The studies on mice have revealed that sodium chloride plays a role in the modulation of the immune system and a high-salt diet can promote tissue inflammation and autoimmune disease. However, translational evidence of dietary salt on human immunity is scarce. We used an experimental approach of fixing salt intake of healthy human subjects at 12, 9, and 6 g/d for months and examined the relationship between salt-intake levels and changes in the immune system. Blood samples were taken from the end point of each salt intake period. Immune phenotype changes were monitored through peripheral leukocyte phenotype analysis. We assessed immune function changes through the characterization of cytokine profiles in response to mitogen stimulation. The results showed that subjects on the high-salt diet of 12 g/d displayed a significantly higher number of immune cell monocytes compared with the same subjects on a lower-salt diet, and correlation test revealed a strong positive association between salt-intake levels and monocyte numbers. The decrease in salt intake was accompanied by reduced production of proinflammatory cytokines interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-23, along with enhanced producing ability of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10. These results suggest that in healthy humans high-salt diet has a potential to bring about excessive immune response, which can be damaging to immune homeostasis, and a reduction in habitual dietary salt intake may induce potentially beneficial immune alterations.

     

    Another reason to have culinary herbs and spices to make your food more palatable rather than loading up on salt.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:03am

    Dan D. Foe

    Dan D. Foe

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    Joined: Aug 20 2012

    Posts: 18

    1+

    Dan D. Foe said:

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:06am

    #86

    Alex Earle

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jun 14 2015

    Posts: 14

    6+

    My customer just returned from Shangai

    My customer is a PhD Economist, Chinese native. He just returned from Shanghai. I only spoke with him on the phone briefly. He said he's already purchased one months worth of food, water & medicine. He plans to purchase more. His elderly parents were scheduled to return home from their 6 month visist this month. He said their not going back any time in the near future.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:07am

    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

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    @ oliveoilguy

    So I guess that you won't be going to the largest human trafficking event on earth this weekend or next, when ever it is...the super bow(e)l.

    There are far more smart folks than me commenting on this here right now so I'll thank them all for their input.

    Just a little food for thought how a single individual or event could get the ball rolling.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:20am

    #88

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 613

    7+

    A lil more personal

    My school administration - two days after telling me they wanted me to work 75% of my current load for 40% less money and no benefits next year - met with me today to discuss whether we should continue to take our school trip of 16 delegates to the Johns Hopkins Model UN conference next weekend. I laid out everything Chris has been saying, and told them it was their call...but IF a single student who goes is infected, they will spread it to at least a few hundred other students. That conference is a hotbed of teenagers sitting in close contact, touching the same door handles, and punching the same elevator call buttons. It would be a virus's playhouse. We have schools coming in from everywhere, including China...though they may not be allowed in. Still, that's above my pay grade and rank to make that kind of call, so I left them informed but in charge.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:27am

    #89

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

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    Well this won't help people's concerns...

    Supposedly CDC has confirmed "human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus in Chicago" - reported on ZeroHedge

    CDC telebriefing (link). No transcript yet so can't confirm.

    Reported by AP though (link)

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:31am

    #90
    treebeard

    treebeard

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    Posts: 558

    13+

    Shopping

    The arguments above remind me of past events.  I remember being flabbergasted after 911 by the message of our then President to keep shopping.

    You can always make the argument that is was a rational thing to say, saying the economy, jobs, societal cohesion and functionality, etc. were at stake.  But if you take a step back and look at this from 10,000ft, I'm sorry, but this is really twilight zone material.

    How did we get here?  Is our economy is such an incoherent fragile mess, that seems anything can tip it over.  It also brings home the point that .01% who seem to have a remarkable ability to control the overall narrative see the general population as little more than farm animals, good for milk and meat while healthy, off to the slaughter house when your old. Don't do anything that will diminish your value in the eyes of your owners!

    Though the herd is slowly waking up and starting to live more independent, conscious and meaningful lives, but boy do we still have a long way to go.  Hopefully events like this are pushing us in the right direction.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:36am

    Eannao

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2015

    Posts: 204

    5+

    Re Travel Plans

    Suzie and AKGrannyWGrit,

    Thanks for the well wishes and the words of wisdom. I'll discuss it with my better half tonight and keep you posted.

    E

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:47am

    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    Delayed honeymoon...

    Your from London, "Should I say or should I go?"   The Clash...Combat Rock 1981.

    Sounds to me that you've already answered your own question...or have you?   Cy-op by the globalists complete.  The ball is rolling imo as people are beginning to worry/question this completely unsustainable lifestyle that most all are living.  Many here imo.

    Personally, I just stay home in my little community.  I don't fly anymore.  Ok, so I'm boring.

    Occasionally, I'll take a drive but I always have my own plan(s).  They can be pretty complex.  I take every precaution that I can, but outside forces may come in to play.  I accept that.

    Everyone wants to ride off into the sunset and expect someone else to save the day.  That may happen if you are in the right place.  I believe one of the reasons that we are here is to help one another.  What is your acceptable risk.  Oooohhhh...that word.

    RISK...the other 4 letter work that no one wants to hear.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:04am

    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    3+

    Well done borderpatrol...and there you have it.

    I love to go to the grocery store with my better half to look at other peoples shopping carts.  Try that some time then look at the people, look at their kids.  99% of the time it saddens me.

    I often wonder why we are there?  I can assure you that what we get is very limited compared to that 99%.   Were working on eliminating it completely.  Were close.  There are just something that are difficult to give up.

    You know what they say, "you are what you eat."

    Damn those organic sustainably made salt and pepper crinkle cut chips!  If it weren't for the crinkle cut, I be ok.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:05am

    #94

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 159

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    Some disturbing thoughts on the timelines

    Whenever MSM and politicians are running a media circus [e.g. Trump impeachment] I immediately ask:  What important real world issues are out there that they might want us NOT to see?  Why the distraction?

    I've thought since 2017 that the Russia election interference circus and then the Trump impeachment circus must be designed to deflect attention from something important.  I have suspected climate change and economic issues as being the obvious mega-problems that politicians and their corporate handlers want to keep out of MSM.

    Pelosi's initial strategy to squelch impeachment since they would look stupid when the house acquits still holds.  Unfortunately, her fellow house dems are really stupid and managed to do impeachment just in time to disrupt the primary cycle, which appears to benefit Biden, the candidate preferred by the corrupt establishment, the most.  Just like H Clinton, he'll have trouble getting votes of those who won't support the establishment.

    coronavirus timeline:  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-spread-200126061554884.html

    Here's the winter timeline adding the political:  just putting it out there for you all to ponder:

    According to Chinese officials, 2019-nCoV first appeared Dec. 12 about 700 miles south of Beijing in Wuhan, a city with more people than New York and Chicago combined. Health officials say the outbreak originated at the Huanan Seafood Market.

    On Dec 18 the house passes the articles of impeachment.
    "Moments after a historic vote to impeach President Trump, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House could at least temporarily withhold the articles from the Senate" https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/some-house-democrats-push-pelosi-to-withhold-impeachment-articles-delaying-senate-trial/2019/12/18/6e25814a-21c5-11ea-a153-dce4b94e4249_story.html

    Dec 31 "On 31 December 2019, WHO was alerted to several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. The virus did not match any other known virus. This raised concern because when a virus is new, we do not know how it affects people.
    One week later, on 7 January, Chinese authorities confirmed that they had identified a new virus. "

    Jan 10  "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday she's preparing to send the impeachment articles to the Senate next week to start the trial of President Donald Trump."

    Jan 14 "Pelosi announced on Tuesday that the House will vote Wednesday on a resolution to transmit the articles of impeachment"  "Hours later, McConnell (R-Ky.) revealed that the Senate will begin its trial in earnest next Tuesday [1/18], when the chamber considers the rules package to govern the trial."

    One can't help but wonder if both of them were already aware of the next government step below.

    "January 17, as a second death was reported in Wuhan, health authorities in the United States announced that three airports would start screening passengers arriving from the city."

    So now, instead of having investigative news coverage of a pandemic, we have a MSM media circus around an impeachment trial [with a forgone conclusion] which distracts public attention as cases hit the US.  Since we know the sham screenings for a virus that takes 2 weeks to show symptoms were not the appropriate action, we have to ask if the DC impeachment circus might have prevented public demand for effective quarantine procedures.

    Just wondering.

    As the wizard of Oz says:  don't look at the little man behind the curtain.  Keep your eyes on the distracting show.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:06am

    #95

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    7+

    A View From The Hot Zone

    This article describes what the conditions on the ground.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/asia/chinese-health-care-virus-intl-hnk/index.html

    I found this interesting in light of Chris’ point about China under reporting the cases of infection:

    “The truth about the virus also came too late for other patients in Wuhan’s hospitals.

    By January 26, Shi began to have a fever — one of the symptoms of the novel coronavirus. She went to the hospital’s fever clinic where she found over 20 patients, all waiting to be tested by one doctor.
    She says she was given three tests — a nasal swipe to rule out the flu, a CT scan to compare her lungs against those of infected patients, and a blood test. After nine hours of tests and waiting for results she says the doctor told her that she had coronavirus, but because he could not give her the fourth and most definitive test, she could only be considered a suspected patient. Her 67-year-old father is in the same situation.
    Shi called hospitals all over Wuhan, trying in vain to find one with the confirmation test — a reagent test which chemically tests for the virus.
    For now, Shi and her father are not counted in the official statistics of people infected.”

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:13am

    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    word.

    Read it and weep.

    Rampant in my community...and they want even more of it.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:20am

    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    2+

    I can't quit laughing!

    Paulie, you've been here all this time and this is you first comment?!  Outstanding!

    I'm glad people still have a sense of humor!

    Thank God I am almost to the bottom of the comments.  I have wood to split.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:39am

    #98

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    2+

    Economic Implications

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyshih/2020/01/30/wuhan-coronavirus-and-china-manufacturing-this-is-going-to-hurt/#4d869ee255fb

    "Lunar New Year is always a big disruption to these production systems. Many workers don’t come back – they might decide to stay home with their families, or they might get married, or take another job. Factory managers always are waiting in suspense to see what percentage don’t come back, because then they have to hire and train replacements.

    This year, a lot of people won’t be coming back on time. Many companies have already announced that they are delaying reopening, and some cities or provinces like Shanghai and Guangdong have told companies operating there that they may not restart before February 9.  But when they do come back, managers will have to worry about whether any of their workers have potentially been exposed to the virus and will need to be quarantined for two weeks. Imagine an even worse case if virus carriers are not identified and go out on the factory floor and infect others. This will be a nightmare."

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:59am

    #99

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    Thoughts

    BillL - hasn’t the problem of risk been solved - it is called a derivative.

    Barbara - don't think national politics is what we are not supposed to look at. Thats just theatre.  I think it's a show TPTB are putting on to wreak havoc.  They are sitting back and eating popcorn and watching the show.  Hmm need a little more excitement, they can make that happen.  Stay tuned it might just get more interesting.

    Just speculation.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 12:05pm

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    6+

    UN agency declares global emergency over virus from China

    Well its official. Statement from the the World Health Organization (WHO)...

    The World Health Organization declared the outbreak sparked by a new virus in China that has been exported to more than a dozen countries as a global emergency Thursday after the number of cases spiked tenfold in a week.

    The U.N. health agency defines an international emergency as an “extraordinary event” that constitutes a risk to other countries and requires a coordinated international response.

    Surprising to absolutely nobody. Better late than never I suppose....

     

     

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 12:12pm

    Mareta

    Mareta

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    Facts

    Well folks the facts are this thing is all over China in every state, I don’t recall seeing a similar situation in the last 50years. The spread is extraordinarily quick. It’s no surprise governments are waking up to this fact and many borders are closing. They don’t want a similar situation until they know more about this thing so tough measures are needed. It’s better to go in hard and be safe than sorry. as you know airport screening is not effective, infected folks have made it through and started spreading within their countries. No need to panic or fear just take actions with a safer than sorry attitude first is the rational way to go.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 12:16pm

    Mareta

    Mareta

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    Mareta said:

    Incompetent and late to the party, probably pushed out of embarrassment that governments and organisations are taking actions regardless

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 12:46pm

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    1+

    Help your body to defend

    itamine D and lots of it. The sooner you start taking, the more you build up.

    Iodine, never forget it. The sooner you start taking, the more you build up.

    Magnesium for Acute Illness. The sooner you start taking, the more you build up.

    Selenium. Succesfull against AIDS.

    Viamine C for repair. Stops bleedings. Buy time released. 4 times a day when sick.

    Don't drink alcohol.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 12:50pm

    tourcarve

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    Posts: 45

    5+

    Exponential growth is at the heart of why we need to respond before it seems to make sense. The Fenway Park Exercise

    Exponential growth is at the heart of why we need to respond early to the possibility of a pandemic, long before we have all the information we would like. But our intuition is misleading concerning exponential growth.

    I seems likely to me that there are many people reading and maybe commenting on this site who have not read or watched "The Crash Course," and so have not done the thought experiment demonstrating our lack of a sense for exponential growth -- the Fenway Park quiz.

    Maybe we need a link on this site to that section of the book that we can refer to as needed, so that everybody gets a sense of it. 

    Briefly, imagine that you are in the largest stadium you have ever seen, handcuffed to a seat in the top row. There is a magic eyedropper on the floor of the stadium that delivers water once a minute. The first minute it delivers 1 drop, the second minute it delivers 2 drops, the third minute it delivers 4 drops, the fourth minute it delivers 8 drops -- that is, each minute it delivers twice as many drops as the minute before.

    How long do you have to escape from the handcuffs before you drown? Just make a wild a guess. What is your first thought? Don't cheat yourself, because it is your sense of growth that matters here.

    How much more time do you have if the stadium is twice as large as you thought?

    How long do you have to escape the handcuffs -- that is, when do you first notice that the stadium is filling with water and that you need to take action?

    The answer is that you have fifty minutes, less than an hour, to escape. At forty-nine minutes the stadium is half full. At forty-eight minutes it is a quarter full. At forty-five minutes it is less than three percent full. If the stadium is actually twice as large as you thought, you have one minute more -- the time to double the amount of water delivered. Again, when do you notice that there is a problem?

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 12:53pm

    thad1a

    thad1a

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    WHO Press Conference was such a joke

    Basically the WHO said this is a grave issue (without any specific science behind it - like R0 estimates, mortality, or latency period) but hey China is doing such a great job, that Xi is on the ball, it was great being there, I love China.

    Then more damaging - there should be no restriction on global travel or trade, and if people put them on we are going to confront them and ask them to take them down, because it's our job to protect China's economy and the economy of the world, and if a lot of people have to get sick and die to do that we're on board.

    Totally pathetic!!!  They don't care about the spread of this disease in any meaningful way nor are they going to do anything that costs any significant amount of money - please just wash your hands and hope you don't die.

    Disgraceful.  And Stocks loved it.  Straight up from the press conference onward.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:02pm

    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Place your bets

    If I were inclined to place a bet, it would be on an R_0 towards the high end of the scale and a significantly higher CFR than what we've been lead to believe thusfar. Based on what isn't being clearly communicated versus what is.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:09pm

    kkamenev

    kkamenev

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    high fatality

    Chris, you said a few times that total number of infected people can be seriously under-reported due to people not being tested, lack of test kits, etc. Doesn't this make the fatality rate over-rated by the same factor? Official fatality is ~170/6800=2.5%, and if we assume that only 30% are diagnosed and counted that makes the real fatality rate ~170/2000=0.85%. Still much higher than flu, but better than 2.5%. Am I wrong?

    Thanks for great work!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:19pm

    ktruddymd

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2010

    Posts: 15

    1+

    Thanks!

    Thanks for the link.  Doc

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:19pm

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2025

    3+

    Suggestions for the US Administration to get out ahead of this

    https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2020/01/30/the-coronavirus-could-be-trumps-katrina-n2560275

    China is going nuts. The numbers of cases coming into the U.S. are growing. People are confused. The stock market is pitching and heaving. And the impeachment circus is going to end with the Democrats’ humiliation soon, meaning suddenly the media will soon need a new shiny object to chase.

    Coronavirus is that shiny object. The media will not be honest or accurate or fair. It will lie, cheat, and give voice to leftist leakers with agendas. That’s why Trump needs to go around the media, straight to us.

    Trump needs to go on the air, to the American people, and lay out the situation. Then Team Trump needs to step up the game by arm-twisting the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) into talking to us, at length, in detail. Get those science nerds in their lab coats out there, in front of the camera, every day, bombarding us with info. Talk our ears off.

    The current lack of information is an invitation for the void to be filled with nonsense and lies designed to undermine the presidency – sadly, the media cares nothing about the infection risk and everything about its weird obsession with undoing the 2016 election. There is already a plan – the CDC is on this – but that plan has not been communicated to the people. The people are worried – they’ll be very, very worried when the media pumps up the threat.

    If the president assures the citizenry that he understands this is a priority and that he is vectoring in America’s best scientists to respond, that not only foils the cheesy partisan political attack that is coming. It helps the actual defeat of this potential epidemic. Instead of inspiring panic, the presentation of the Administration as having this crisis well in hand will serve to calm fears as well as tell people what to do.

    Do you know what you should do? I’m not sure I do. And the information has been so sketchy that right now most of us don’t know the Coronavirus from the Dos Equis virus, the most interesting flu in the world.

    Pummel the people with information. Make those eggheads do briefings every day. Get a soothing one who can communicate to be the face of the CDC. And Hugh Hewitt has another good point – no one is telling us how the disease got here, what flights, what airports. Get that out there. People want to know if a carrier was in their mall or school or whatever. And explain why the hell you can still gobble a bat, jump on a plane, and fly to America? Why haven’t we limited or banned flights? Are we screening passengers? How? We need to know.

    Trust us with the information and we will trust the Administration.

    This is not just a public health crisis – it’s a political fight too. Sorry, but that’s the truth, and Trump is under no obligation to allow himself to be lied about as W. was. Luckily, though, Trump is a master communicator – plus, he’ll fight back.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:22pm

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2367

    3+

    Saving face, supporting China's leadership and the Mandate of Heaven

    So they declared an emergency and promised to support Xi's ongoing leadership verbally and with a boost in global stock prices.  (Nothing makes you want to suddenly buy lots of stocks like a global pandemic.  /s)

    Would love to hear you China savvy folks tell us more about the Mandate of Heaven and the risk to current leadership as Chinese people die, their medical system is conspicuously overwhelmed and economy stumbles during lockdown.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:25pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 439

    1+

    exellent contextual article from Gail Tverberg

    It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:26pm

    ktruddymd

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 12 2010

    Posts: 15

    4+

    False Negative Rate for Screening Test for nCoV

    Chris, as you know, we need to know what the False Negative rate is for the screening test being used via CDC to identify patients infected with nCoV. So, do you know?  Does anyone know?  Haven't seen it published anywhere.

    Further, if (as is the case), CDC recommends screening only 'symptomatic close contacts of test+ patients with nCoV' then how can we know if asymptomatic contacts are infected with the virus and are spreading it?

    I understand that CDC and public health officials do not want to prematurely overburden our healthcare infrastructure, but since we (the USA) do not have a burdensome number of close contacts of +cases that we are presently following, I would argue that they should all be tested daily to see who 'converts', when they 'convert', and where 'conversion' of a negative test to a test that is positive for nCoV occurs along the spectrum of symptomatology.

    Thanks, Doc

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:48pm

    mountainsteps

    mountainsteps

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    mountainsteps said:

    A couple observations I have made. 1) When I started talking to wife over the weekend to prepare she kept downplaying things. Finally I said "We prepare for other things, we should prepare for this to. Why are you downplaying the possibility?." She said "I know the danger I just don't want it to be true." A little later we were talking about implications if it spread and she kept bringing up deaths and how the flu is more deadly so why do I keep mentioning deaths it can cause. I never had even brought up deaths - I explained to her I am more worried about impact to infrastructure, supplies, etc. if huge portions of the population are home sick at any one time. Imagine if 30% of the work force are out of commission for weeks at a time, and this goes on for months! She said she hadn't thought about that. 2) Another observation is how report after report seems to do the whole compared to flu or compared to SARS the coronavirus is not that bad thing. As Chris points out it is not a good comparison. Now it seems report after report is downplaying wearing face masks and trying to shame people who have or will buy some. Personally, I think much of this has to do with the authors fears that they do not want to actually face rather than a large coordinated campaign (although could be partly that as well). I think they are like my wife had been - they don't want it to be true so it makes them feel better thinking it's not likely true. Although, if it is coordinated then that makes me think they seem to be trying awfully hard to convince us not to prepare which makes me wonder what they know, which makes me want to prepare even more! 🙂

    Also - some of you might find this song called Here Comes The Plague interesting. It was released around January 10. Heavier song so might not be everyone's style - but eerie timing to be released before Coronavirus really made headlines!

    Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/deathriderdemons

    Youtube:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loiFUWKF8LY

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:56pm

    mountainsteps

    mountainsteps

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    mountainsteps said:

    She sounds like a person who views old people as burdens to society. Seems like she would be happy for the coronavirus to take care of them.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 1:58pm

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2367

    3+

    Limiting test kits availability helps to limit confirmed cases

    A Chinese citizen's tale from Wuhan tells that hospitals are overflowing with people.  Hospitals have a limited number of test kits for use and will not test everybody who is sick for nCoV.

    What a great strategy for keeping the numbers of "confirmed cases" low.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:09pm

    jwherr

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 13 2009

    Posts: 5

    I've had the same thought, kkamenev.

    Fatalities recorded with way more accuracy than infected - which could skew CFR down.. likely by a lot.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:11pm

    Mark Cochrane

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 874

    4+

    Not so simple or comforting

    Chris, you said a few times that total number of infected people can be seriously under-reported due to people not being tested, lack of test kits, etc. Doesn’t this make the fatality rate over-rated by the same factor? Official fatality is ~170/6800=2.5%, and if we assume that only 30% are diagnosed and counted that makes the real fatality rate ~170/2000=0.85%. Still much higher than flu, but better than 2.5%. Am I wrong?

    Kkamenev, your calculations would only be correct if all the undiagnosed cases were mild and they all survived. The flip side of the "undiagnosed" argument is that people who die from the virus before they get 'officially' diagnosed aren't being counted either. This was probably the case early on before anyone understood we were facing a new virus and it will be the case again (perhaps already) if the medical system gets too overloaded. Who is going to bother diagnosing the dead when they can't even process the samples of the living in a timely manner?

    So basically, we don't know anything for certain other than the fact that we are working with a flawed set of data....but it is all we have.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:12pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 439

    9+

    Emotional reslience, fear, and risk management

    There are great discussions going on here. I am grateful to have this site as a resource that I can trust - about as much as I can trust any media.

    It seems to me that our levels of emotional resilience directly affect our propensity to fear as well as abilities to cope and make rational risk related decisions in the face of a pandemic threat. Where we live, work and how we interact with our communities on a daily basis will determine what additional steps we may need to protect ourselves/loved ones in the face of a new risk. There are no guarantees, but obviously some locales are going to see greater risks than others - which can be said for any type of emergency.  Prepare according to your risk, not your fears.

    Where we are with our emotional resilience will also determine how ready we are for something like self-imposed isolation. So many people these days are uncomfortable with spending time alone or with diminished social contact. Those who are unable to handle quarantine type situations are likely to experience far more stress (and therefore compromised immune system) than those who have prepared by regularly doing things to enhance their mental and emotional resilience and are more comfortable with solitude as a result.

    I really liked Gail Tverberg's article, which I posted above, with her take that this is just one more of nature's ways to thin the population. I agree and it is my personal belief that overall humans have intervened too much medically speaking to alter natural life and death cycles. I see disease and viruses as nature's way of keeping population numbers in check. We have skewed that, often with the best of intentions of course, but with consequences as well.

    We have often talked on this site about the need for population control. Well, is a pandemic not naturally occurring population control? Are we right to try to fight and isolate it? Or would it be wise to let nature take its course? It is a deep question, and one that I think requires serious consideration. Yes, there are many consequences to allowing that to happen. But there are also many consequences to intervening and letting population continue to grow... these are serious ethical considerations that require serious debate. But I doubt there are any world leaders who have the balls to even consider opening up such a dialogue. Just like they don't have the balls to deal with any of the other serious predicaments facing all of us.

    Thank you Chris and Adam as well as all contributors for providing cogent, trustworthy information to help with decision making. I hope everyone in the community stays well and is able to avoid this virus!

    Jan

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:32pm

    jwherr

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    Joined: Oct 13 2009

    Posts: 5

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    CFR skewing

    Thanks for your comments on this Mark

    My gut says that a fatality, especially under these conditions, "raises more eyebrows" and would be way more accurately recorded that the whole spectrum of infected people.  I'm trying to fit some logic to it here:

    Potential causes of missed counts of:

    Fatalities:

    - happened before awareness of 2019nCoV

    - hospitals didn't care enough to test if the cause of death was nCov or not (seems to me officials may prioitize that data - whether that data goes public or not is another question)

    - no test kits available

    -fatalities outside of the medical system

    Infected people:

    - happened before awareness of 2019nCoV

    - hospitals don't care enough to test if the infection is nCov or not (my hunch is the priority might be on the fatalities, for data's sake)

    - no test kits available

    - infected persons never seek medical attention

    - infected persons don't show symptoms, don't even know they're infected.

    I get that the "7 day infected to death" lag is a massive factor in skewing the CFR higher than reported, but I think the logic above is also a large factor to skew it lower that hasn't been properly brought to light.

    It'd be really interesting to be able to google the future.. my gut says CFR is lower than stated now.  Sorry no data to back up anything - all guesswork - but an interesting conversation regardless.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:49pm

    Mrs. Bohall

    Mrs. Bohall

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 8

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    Thoughts from a newb

    Hi! I've been reading comments from this site re: Coronavirus now for about 15 days. I found this site through Censored.news and check it daily...more than once... I decided to go ahead and register due to the solid info from PeakProsperity and the attentive commentators...

    I'm a 48yr old mom of 3 daughters. Been married now for 27 years. 2 of our daughters are grown and in their 20s. Both of them are clueless about what's going on and weren't really too interested in my input on the subject. (typical ignorant young people) Our 3rd daughter is now 7 and I homeschool her. I've talked to my DH about this somewhat but he also is taking a very casual attitude... haven't spoke to my parents about it yet but I will this weekend. My dad drives for Uber in Las Vegas... that could be a problem IMO.

    So basically, I am just an average person (except for the fact that I don't HAVE to go out into the public on any daily basis).  I know enough to NOT TRUST the MSM narrative. I pay attention to NaturalNews.com and Infowars (as well as some other sites) and I keep my "fears" in check due to my longstanding faith in God. We live in a small town about 45 min south of Kansas City, MO and since the Chiefs are in the Superbowl this weekend I'm headed to the store to do some stocking up before all those people return on Monday...

    My logic is this. Even though I am a "healthy" gal and do not have any major medical issues (at least none I'm aware of), I'm not in any position to be getting sick. (Ain't nobody got time for that). If the Chiefs win...we're not going to the parade (even though I REALLY want to). In 2 weeks time, I figure if anyone caught this little bugger down in Miami (still an open airport for Chinese travelers) we'll have it here in the heartland. Since I have a little time on my hands as a stay-at-home-mom I'll be prepping to stay in for at least 4-6wks if/when it hits up in the city. We don't have expendable income right now so I can't go buy prepackaged 4wk supply meal offers that are out there. I'm going to do it myself. I will buy a vacuum meal saver thing (about $50) and I've compiled my own list of foods to either make ahead and freeze or foods that don't require a lot to prepare (like just add water, lol). I've got to stay in my budget as best as I can (it's a very slow time of year for my husband - a self-employed commercial artist)

    I looked at some of the food items included in a pre-packaged MRE offer and from that, I came up with ideas of my own. Pinterest is a great place to search for meal prep ideas. Obviously if we lose power than that's a different problem but for right now, I can only mentally deal with what is appearing to be on the horizon. If nothing happens in the next couple weeks, and the virus takes it's sweet time in getting here (I do believe it'll eventually arrive) than all I've done is just some preventative planning. I'm not going to buy worthless surgical masks but I will probably at some point soon, go locate our painting respirators that my husband has used for work (I think they're in the garage somewhere) It's not a full face mask but the dual cartridge filters are replaceable and the mask fits snug on the face. I may also pick up some sealed safety goggles (like we used to wear back in chemistry class) or perhaps just go with some motorcycle goggles that are sealed all around the eyes (also in the garage). I told 7yr old (who CONSTANTLY touches her face) that I may have to fashion her a cone collar (like they use on dogs after surgery) to keep her hands away from her face. She loved the idea of course, lol. I've already taught her about germs on surfaces of things (I hate public restrooms) and so to a certain degree she understands why I would be vigilant about this kind of thing.

    I don't know if anyone would really care about how a stay-at-home mom might handle this possible upcoming potential catastrophe but these are just some of my ideas... if anyone would care to see my "list" I'll gladly put it here in this comment section.

    Thanks for your time! May God be with us all...

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 2:56pm

    Agent700

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 02 2014

    Posts: 41

    5+

    Welcome!

    Welcome Mrs. Bohall! You have come to the right place. Chris and the Crash Course changed my life 10 years ago and everything I've done since then has been by knowing the things I learned here - first......Then building on that initial knowledge since. You have found a great leader and community and your money was well spent.

    With that said, I will let the regulars guide you, in addition to all of the stored data on this site. You and your family will be fine since you have become so aware. God Bless to You!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:16pm

    LogansRun

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 18 2009

    Posts: 311

    6+

    LogansRun said:

    You should go.  You'll be safer in the Maldives than in London.  If things get bad in London...you can hang out in the Maldives.

    Congrats!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 3:55pm

    Mrs. Bohall

    Mrs. Bohall

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 8

    6+

    thank you for the hello

    I totally appreciate your kind welcome! I'm not on any social media (unless you count Pinterest) so I don't talk to many people in the real world. (My DH would probably call me a hermit if he could get away with it...) Your kind words have put a smile on my face :-)!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:00pm

    markqb88

    markqb88

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 1

    1+

    markqb88 said:

    can SOMEONE PLEASE SEND ME INFO ON THE FALSE NEGATIVE RATE

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:06pm

    greendoc

    greendoc

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 23 2008

    Posts: 166

    9+

    Greetings, and spend some money on sprouting seeds

    Welcome! A treasure trove of great information here. May I add, when prepping dry goods consider seeds for sprouting.  If ever it comes to weeks/months of social distancing, then fresh fruit and veggies some of the first things to go.  Providing you have clean water (and part of prepping is to figure that out) and seeds, mason jars, sprouting lids and some patience you can grow sprouts easily!  I like broccoli and radish sprouts, as they are high in sulfuraphane, as well as other needed things like folate, magnesium, phosphorus, manganese and vitamins C and K.

    https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/sulforaphane

    Many places online to get seeds, I like Sproutpeople.

    Claire

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:12pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1019

    9+

    Okay Jan, I will start

    “We have often talked on this site about the need for population control. Well, is a pandemic not naturally occurring population control? Are we right to try to fight and isolate it? Or would it be wise to let nature take its course? It is a deep question, and one that I think requires serious consideration.”

    Well since you asked.  IMHO I don't believe this is naturally occurring.  Have no proof other than numerous historical precedents for using disease as a weapon. You know that pension crisis, - problem solved. No jobs, problem solved, social security short-fall, not a problem any more. Hmmm how convenient. Oh gosh I sound cynical.  Really, our best interest is being looked after right?

    Secondly, let a virus take its course?! Sure we could let people suffer and die, but not my family, or yours, on second thought I wouldn’t want that for anybody. Isn't that called eugenics?  You know selective survival? It didn’t go over well in WWII.

    And the population is no longer growing in developed countries. As a matter if fact we are in need of more young people to support our ongoing growth economy

    Sorry Jan, no serious consideration here.  Perhaps a few of you wicked smart folks see things differently.

    Cranky Granny

    .

     

     

     

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:14pm

    annepan001

    annepan001

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    Posts: 12

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    Sprouting seeds

    Great advice greendoc! We have an organic veg farm, but are heading into the "hungry gap" from April to June, when last year's crops are finishing and the new ones are seedlings/ young plants. We sprout organic mungbeans routinely from October to March for ourselves and our pet hens, to make sure we all get some vibrant living plant material through the winter months. A crop takes two days to be ready - no brainer!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:15pm

    timot78

    timot78

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    Posts: 36

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    The updated count is in (1/30/2020 19:00 EST)

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

     

    That means: cases/deaths = 9171 / 213.

     

    Taking into account Jan.24 = 844 disclosed cases, the approximate mortality rate would be   213/844 = ~ 25%.   Since denominator changes so rapidly , this number fluctuates tremendously.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:26pm

    Agent700

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 02 2014

    Posts: 41

    Live Report, Chinese Medical Professionals

    I found these two Westerners earlier this week. They are doctors who lived here in China (Shenzhen) for 5 years and worked closely with Chinese doctors and hospitals. They are married to Chinese doctors and read and speak Chinese.

    I've lived here 10 years and worked here for 30 years. I have Chinese family (but from Taiwan, a HUGE difference). These 2 guys are a FANTASTIC source of truth and accurate, boots on the ground information:

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:33pm

    Lnorris

    Lnorris

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    Joined: Mar 28 2011

    Posts: 86

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    Been away for few years

    but this Coronavirus brought me back to Peak Prosperity. I trust Chris’ analysis. I don’t trust what China is reporting. The real truth may never come out. What worries me most is the  health care system being over run. We have an 18 bed ICU (we have three other ICU’s but they are cardiac and burn) and on any given day most of the beds are filled with patients suffering from strokes, head injuries, poor surgical outcomes etc. The hospital has gone on divert twice this winter (no patients accepted to the  emergency department) and that’s without a pandemic. Patients who are hypertensive, morbidly obese, non compliant diabetics and asthmatics are surely at risk to have greater complications. What percentage of the population does the include? It’s a significant percent of our patient population. From what I see so far, our response will be reactionary. The front line staff will do their best but all resources human and supply side have their limits. Be prepared to stay home. Hospitals will not be where you want to be as a patient if the system is under stress.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:50pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 451

    5+

    On Maui....

    ...we call the rumor mill/grapevine the Coconut Wireless.  Well, the coconut wireless is telling me that we have our first potential nCoV patient under observation at Maui Memorial (the only hospital on the island).  If little old Maui (pop ~ 150k) has one, then proportionally Oahu has about 10 (pop ~ 1.5M).  I know the math isn't that simple but this thin tip of the nCoV spear will widen for certain in the coming weeks.  I was on the beach with my son last weekend and about a quarter to a third of the tourists on that beach were of Chinese ethnicity.  Not all would be from Mainland China, but it was an instructive moment.

    My lady friend found some N95s with the exhalation port yesterday, when it seemed like the island's shelves had beens scoured clean.  (She went to NAPA auto parts and bought their last 2 boxes, Lowe's, ACE and Home D had zilch.)  Smart women preppers are so hot.  <smile>

    Anyhow, just so y'all know, we evidently have active nCoV here at the crossroads of the Pacific.  Coming soon to...wherever you are, assuming you live within 100 miles of any major metro area, or attraction or feature that draws tourists.

    Dried elderberries arrived.  Time to make some syrup!

    VIVA -- Sager

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 4:57pm

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 752

    4+

    Sprouts

    Could not agree more that sprouts are almost required for isolation living. We do a broccoli, alfalfa blend for salads and mung beans for stir fry. Sprouting lids are cheap on amazon as are organic seeds for sprouting.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:07pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 135

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    Testing so longggg?

    Why does it take the CDC so long to return test results??   Some waiting since Sunday?..

     

    Allegedly, China has local testing at some of their hospital sites.   With all our resources why does US not yet have local testing or able to rapidly deploy test kits to areas?    The waits for these people/towns is terrible and makes folks frantic.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:09pm

    guardia

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 26 2009

    Posts: 55

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    Quarantines in Wuhan, Hubei, too little too late?

    There's something interesting that showed up on Japanese TV this morning. They plotted the officially confirmed number of cases in Wuhan vs in the rest of China. It looks like it has plateaued in Wuhan, but not in the rest of China, where quarantines may not be necessarily in place... I feel this is something we should keep a close watch on.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:16pm

    schmidtma01

    schmidtma01

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    Joined: May 29 2011

    Posts: 16

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    Facebook censoring coronavirus already?

    Hey-

    So, for all you PP members who are also on Facebook, have you seen any of your friends post about/link to articles on coronavirus this week? When the first US case was confirmed in WA last week, I had no fewer than 15 friends post links to the story. This week? Crickets. Nothing. Not a single posted link to a story since I think Friday or Saturday.

    I happened to be on FB on Tuesday morning when a friend did a status update (not a link to a story) asking if anyone thought this was going to be as bad as spanish flu - he received a few likes and comments and then, after a couple hours - nothing more. Nada.

    I posted a humorous status update last Friday, in which I included a picture of a board game called "Pandemic" and joked that it was a good way to avoid the news cycle (back in the good old days when that would seem quaint - aka last week). I had my usual slew of likes and comments for the first 6-8 hours or so and then... nothing. Not a single other person reacted since. While I get that not everyone does, that was a highly unusual reaction pattern to anything I've posted.

    Finally, I've now asked 4 other people if they've seen anything posted on FB this week - all of them have reported zero.

    So, my question is - are all of you are swimming in coronavirus FB posts? I just find it odd that not one of my friends - a chunk of whom are also epidemiologists - would not find a single article on this topic interesting enough to consider posting...

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:18pm

    Terry L

    Terry L

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    Posts: 24

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    Sobering, first-hand account from inside Wuhan!

    This 26 minute video could well be one of the more accurate stories of what life (and death) is like inside Wuhan, from a young & very brave Chinese man, who says, more than once, that he's sharing only what he's seen with his own eyes, and not any rumors. We're unlikely to see this in the MSM...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU&feature=youtu.be
    Turn on "CC" (Closed Captioning, maybe under settings' gear icon) for an excellent running translation (I urge you to watch to the personally-moving end). [Apologies if this has already been posted here.]

    This appeared on Reddit about 9 hours ago (8a.m. PST in the US), under r/Wuhan_Flu, titled "Guy in Wuhan telling what he's seeing. Turn on CC."

     

    “When the whole world is silent, even one voice becomes powerful!”

                                                                        ---Malala Yousafzai

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:18pm

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5213

    2+

    Re: High Fatality

    Chris, you said a few times that total number of infected people can be seriously under-reported due to people not being tested, lack of test kits, etc. Doesn’t this make the fatality rate over-rated by the same factor? Official fatality is ~170/6800=2.5%, and if we assume that only 30% are diagnosed and counted that makes the real fatality rate ~170/2000=0.85%. Still much higher than flu, but better than 2.5%. Am I wrong?

    Thanks for great work!

    Good math, I love it!  Yes, the denominator could be a lot larger making the case fatality rate a lot lower.

    Of course, it could also be that the numerator is a lot higher...

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:25pm

    MattRoss72

    MattRoss72

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    Joined: Jan 24 2020

    Posts: 9

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    Facebook

    I would say close to zero, I see a few posts, but they seem to not have any likes nor comments.  These are people that I know receive some sort of acknowledgement from FB posts.   Interesting observation, hadn’t really thought about it until now.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:28pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    Myrto Ashe said:

    The Event 201 video I watched is the Highlights Reel.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:35pm

    reflector

    reflector

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    Posts: 263

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    Men More Prone To Coronavirus Infection Than Women, Study Finds

    zerohedge discussing some studies published in the lancet.

    Another alarming finding from the study: The mortality rate among the group studied was 11%. While that number is well above the 2%-3% official death toll, other epidemiologists have suggested that the true death toll for the virus is closer to 11%.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/men-more-prone-coronavirus-infection-women-study-finds

    more men than women affected, 67 to 32 (2:1 ratio), but this doesn't necessarily account for the population present at the wuhan market out of the 99 from what i can gather

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

    Findings

    Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 [83%] patients), cough (81 [82%] patients), shortness of breath (31 [31%] patients), muscle ache (11 [11%] patients), confusion (nine [9%] patients), headache (eight [8%] patients), sore throat (five [5%] patients), rhinorrhoea (four [4%] patients), chest pain (two [2%] patients), diarrhoea (two [2%] patients), and nausea and vomiting (one [1%] patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity, and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure.

     

     

    the lancet also seems to suggest that preliminary findings are that the incubation period is 3-6 days.

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:38pm

    Andrewbradnan

    Andrewbradnan

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    Joined: Oct 31 2012

    Posts: 7

    3+

    9,821 cases world wide

    9,821 cases now.  Hubei has updated figures.  Oddly it's not made it to arcgis.com

    CFR should move towards 20% as all the hospital ventilators get taken.... If you use the official numbers CFR is 54% for the last few days (deaths/(deaths+recovered)).  Hopefully no one has time to update the recovered numbers.  It's still pretty close if you take dead / (cases 2 weeks ago).  Bad times.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:39pm

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5213

    11+

    The WHO is officially useless

    Basically the WHO said this is a grave issue (without any specific science behind it – like R0 estimates, mortality, or latency period) but hey China is doing such a great job, that Xi is on the ball, it was great being there, I love China.

    Then more damaging – there should be no restriction on global travel or trade, and if people put them on we are going to confront them and ask them to take them down, because it’s our job to protect China’s economy and the economy of the world, and if a lot of people have to get sick and die to do that we’re on board.

    Totally pathetic!!!  They don’t care about the spread of this disease in any meaningful way nor are they going to do anything that costs any significant amount of money – please just wash your hands and hope you don’t die.

    Disgraceful.  And Stocks loved it.  Straight up from the press conference onward.

    The fourth Turning is all about losing faith in institutions. The WHO came along and put a foot on their own back and kicked themselves down the stairs.

    You are right, that was the most disgraceful, maddening thing I've seen in a long time.  And that's saying something.  [Note: I've got an update  video about it coming out soon....in about a half hour]

    The WHO seemed to forget that that their middle initial is an H not a T.  It was all about protecting the economy and trade.

    Then, magically, stocks rocketed higher on the news that the WHO was going to cave to China's economic and political interests, presumably helped along by a lot more Fed money.

    In case anybody has any lingering doubts about the WHO, here's definitive proof that they are China's lapdog:

    Taiwan Picks Up International Support After Being Barred from World Health Assembly

    The World Health Organization has declined to invite Taiwan for the third consecutive year at the behest of Beijing.

    Taiwan will find itself sidelined during the upcoming annual health summit of the World Health Organization (WHO), to be held in Geneva in late May, for the third straight year due to objections from China.

    So the fact that the WHO is now riddled with political drama is of no surprise.  The Ethiopian dude at the head of it has a long history of shady activity and rumors about squashing health statistics to bolster certain other political aims.

    But you'd think with so much on the line, even the most corrupt of organizations could rally and do something right.

    Nope.

    So here we are.  The spread of this virus is all but guaranteed anyway, but now it's going to come faster, which means harder.

    I wish that wasn't the case.  This isn't a drill.

    I'm legit angry at the WHO right now.  The Fourth Turning arrives.  Trust is lost.  Into the widening gyre...

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:55pm

    MattRoss72

    MattRoss72

    Status: Member

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    Posts: 9

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    Mrs. Bohall - prep on a budget

    Hi, I shot you a private message on some easy ways to have food for a long time on a budget. Fellow ozark plateau guy by birth. Check it out, good luck!!!

    Matt

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 5:57pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 451

    5+

    WHO

    It occurs to me that WHO knows there's nothing they can do to stop the spread of nCoV (with longish incubation which includes asymptomatic transmission possibility).  Short of locking the whole world down for 2-4 months, this virus is going to go just about everywhere.

    And locking the whole world down for 2-4 months simply isn't going to happen.  So they're conceding the field to the virus, doing math behind the scenes (and evidently getting a number of dead that is less than utterly catastrophic, ie "acceptable losses"), and deciding preserving the economy to the extent possible within the context of these events is the thing to do.

    Plan accordingly... and assume you'll have to (mostly) fend for yourselves in the healthcare department.  I think the rest of the economy will be BAU to the extent possible...

    VIVA -- Sager

     

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:02pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

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    Tim Puffer, AZ: 1 confirmed, "several" suspected cases under review by CDC

    Hi Tim,

    AZ still has only 1 AZ state U student confirmed case, with concerns re: state health/university officials' lack of transparency to assist in tracking, preventive efforts. However, there are "several" suspected cases under review by the CDC.

    https://news.yahoo.com/health-officials-several-samples-coronavirus-012754410.html

    If it were me and I absolutely had to travel, I'd take all prudent precautions as documented and discussed throughout the PP website. Stay well and safe!

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:07pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

    4+

    Locking People In Their Homes

    Agent 007, the video is over an hour and a half, so I did a quick jump through, that is until I hit about 27:00. That was shocking, the video shows Chinese health authorities, physically locking people into their homes in an apartment building with chains and bars across their door, to prevent them from leaving.

    OMG if that is actually happening then the Chinese are losing the fight on this thing.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 6:35pm

    Mark_BC

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 386

    2+

    Mark_BC said:

    If they let the ponzi scheme economy crash there would probably be more deaths than letting the flu go rampant. Since it isn't likely to be contained now anyways, they seem to be trying to preserve the ponzi scheme if they can. We'll see how that goes. Never underestimate the Fed's ability to print money. I shoulda bought the dip today.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:01pm

    bigpig1

    bigpig1

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    bigpig1 said:

    I believe this is spot on. If you look at this through the eyes of a soulless pragmatist I think you can get pretty close to what we’ll see...

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:03pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

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    Not enough test kits

    In reply to Sandpuppy, lack of availability of testing kits limits the number of confirmed cases now, and eventually it will limit the number of reported deaths from coronavirus (if you can't be a confirmed case, then your death won't count in the total). This might not be a "strategy," rather a reality of how fast factories can come up with kits and distribute them to hospitals.

    The whole use of testing kits thing baffles me. The world reported 3000 or so new cases today. This is out of how many tested? How many were negative? How many of those people will have to be tested again in 1-2 weeks when they are re-exposed?  The video with the Chinese man in Wuhan has him saying that 10,000 kits were delivered to Wuhan, so each doctor sees maybe 100 patients per day and evidently only test the ones with an abnormal CT scan. Somehow in spite of all that (also the difficulty people are having in accessing the hospital) confirmed cases are still running ahead of Chris's disaster projections.

    I found this on the uncensored subreddit:

    "Understand, China's newspaper "People's Daily" says China's current nCoV nucleic acid testing capability is approximately 2,000 tests a day. Notice how close the confirmed infected increase per day is to 2,000. I believe the true number is still on track with the exponential prediction.

    https://news.sina.cn/2020-01-26/detail-iihnzhha4673457.d.html

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:23pm

    bethiew

    bethiew

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    bethiew said:

    Mrs. Bohall, your story is my exact story down to the family dynamics!  One thing I'd recommend to extend your food supply if you are in a situation where you can't stock up for a long period of time is intermittent fasting (for adults only not children).  I've been eating one meal a day for 2 years and have never felt better.  Your body gets used to it after 2-3 weeks and it becomes a breeze.  I will never go back to eating all day long again. EVER. I also haven't been sick in those 2 years when I used to routinely get sick several times every winter.  Even when everyone in my house is sick, I never get it anymore. Anyway, just a thought and what I plan on doing.  God bless!!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:50pm

    Snydeman

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 613

    8+

    And so.

    And so it goes. If this swan lands, I wish all of you Godspeed and good odds.

     

    For my part, I’ll be doing my best to tend to these...

    Because that’s what matters most.

    People in China?

    Same thing. They want the same thing.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:00pm

    kelley.otani

    kelley.otani

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    Joined: Jun 02 2011

    Posts: 4

    3+

    CDPH (California Department of Public Health)

    Chris, it is my understanding that what creates the higher contagion risk for this coronavirus is  that the infected individual may be contagious but not manifest symptoms for up to 14 days. It is the current policy of the CDC that there is no current evidence of that. I've read the CDPH report that they are detaining, testing and isolating individuals for only 3 days upon entering the country, per my understanding that that is how long it takes (72 hours) to get the test results back. I don't know at what virus titer concentration that the test becomes positive. If it is indeed true that an individual IS contagious before symptomatic, isn't the screening worthless and putting Californians and the nation at risk?? Thank you.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:25pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 736

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    PaulJam, re: excellent article on Chinese gov't response (post #44)

    Excellent article, PaulJam--thank you!  I'm reposting here in case others missed in in this long thread.

    You said, "This is a fascinating read about the ineptness of the response of the Chinese government. Classic science vs politics."

    http://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:35pm

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 350

    2+

    Real news for a change

    What a brave young man to go out at risk to his health and report (at risk to his freedom, livelihood and who knows what else) to the world a first hand account from inside the hospitals.

    His idea of counting the number of infected Japanese on that evacuation flight was brilliant.  It's certainly not an unbiased sample but it might be the best we have:

    3 infected / 207 passengers ~ 1.5%.  Multiply that by the population of Wuhan and you have 165,000 people as an educated guess for the actual infection levels.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 8:41pm

    Mrs. Bohall

    Mrs. Bohall

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

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    Amazing video - gotta watch

    I hope YouTube doesn’t try to remove this.  Thank you for sharing.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:17pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

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    CAHAN nCoV meeting (1/28/20): shortages of PPE, some "overwhelmed" facilities

    The California Health Alert Network ( CAHAN ) is a web-based communications and information system available 24/7 to link critical health and emergency response partners to strengthen state and local preparedness. [paraphrased from CAHAN website]

    Here are concise participant notes from a 1/28/20 meeting (by phone) re: nCoV screening and treatment procedures, health care facility capacity and supplies surveys to assess gaps, employee health and monitoring, communications with patients and their families, coordination with providers, health depts. and CDC.

    In Q&A, it was noted that some facilities received notices of PPE shortages; and that private providers were seeing/referring some patients (re: nCoV) to hospitals which is "overwhelming nearby medical centers".

    Source, FluTrackers

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 9:57pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 800

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    Wow

    Powerful video, hope he stays safe.

     

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 10:30pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

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    China: US Embassy, Consulates scaling back staff, Wuhan consulate shut, sending home non-essential personnel

     

    "The State Department is scaling back non-essential personnel from the embassy in Beijing and various consulates in China due to the coronavirus. The Wuhan consulate was ordered shut, but other facilities are on "authorized departure" status which means personnel can leave if so desired."

    1/29/20, h/t "Penguinsix", FluTrackers

    https://www.axios.com/state-department-staff-evacuate-china-coronavirus-05f55f0b-25e7-4fa3-b344-b9c5d245ec7d.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/pentagon-will-provide-support-for-coronavirus-wuhan-evacuees.html

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:12pm

    meyersn

    meyersn

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    Joined: Sep 15 2010

    Posts: 3

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    Case Fatality Rate Estimate Math

    As mentioned in your videos, we can’t divide the number of current fatalities by the current number of infected to get the CFR because it takes about a week from the onset of symptoms before death. Is there a better way to estimate the true CFR?

    (200 Fatalities  (Jan 30) - 25 Fatalities (Jan 23)) / 800 infected (Jan 23) = 21.8% CFR ?

    This seems a bit high.

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:16pm

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    1+

    Re: asymptomatic transmission

    Response to kelley.otani

    Kelley, if you read the Flutrackers' post with the most detail on the teleconference, it says that in the past, asymptomatic transmission has not been shown to lead to a pandemic. This may explain why they have not been making a big deal out of it. However, my understanding is that you can also show that in a setting where people are in each others' company on a daily basis, it makes no difference to upper respiratory infection rates if you remove sick individuals, since the transmission likely occurred before onset of symptoms. So I've had the same concern you have.

    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/824817-us-california-2019-ncov-confirmed-cases

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 11:53pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

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    nCoV data integrity, reporting: China CDC changed case definition, confirmations 4 times in Jan.

    [Sparky1 summary]

    Some (not all) of the difficulties of nCoV data collection and case/outcome reporting have come from the lack of available reliable tests and testing facilities. Mid-January the CDC reported central lab capabilities of processing tests in batches of 200 per day, and tests weren't even sent to Wuhan ("ground zero") in quantity until about Jan. 16, 2020. (See my other posts and links on this topic.) Thereafter per President Xi's directive, lab capacity was to be ramped-up to process up to 2,000 tests per day (date of full capacity was not specified and current status is unknown).

    Given additional observation, research and data over the past few weeks, China CDC changed/updated their definition of "suspected" nCoV cases on:  Jan. 15 ("first edition" in the CDC diagnosis and treatment plan), Jan. 18 ("second edition"), Jan. 22 ("third edition)", and Jan. 27 ("fourth addition"). The definition of "confirmed" nCoV cases changed twice via first and second editions (above dates), but the treatment plan changed for confirmed cases in the third edition.  Prior to third edition (i.e., Jan. 22), confirmation was provided by the national CDC "or designated" (e.g., provincial agency). With the third edition revised treatment plan, review and confirmation can be provided by "city level disease control agencies" and remained unchanged in the fourth and current plan.

    Source, China CDC "2019 New Coronavirus Epidemic Progress and Risk Assessment", item #2 (1/28/20, translated, h/t Gert van der Hoek, FluTrackers)

    [Sparky1 opinion/observation] It is highly unlikely that the Chinese CDC (or others) have retroactively adjusted their case reporting statistics to reflect the most recent definitions of "suspected" and "confirmed" cases. It is also possible that different countries are using different and/or "outdated" definitions in their case reports.

    Note that China now apparently has the capability to screen, test and confirm cases at the city level, whereas the US currently relies on local providers for screening and testing, with test samples sent to one national lab (US-CDC) for analysis and confirmation, which adds at minimum 3 days to obtain test results.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:47am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    WestCoastJan: Applaud your wise words, but some nagging concerns about eugenics (population culling)

    Gosh Jan, I so appreciate and concur with your very thoughtful post! FWIW, I think you should trademark the phase, "Prepare according to your risk, not your fears." I think it brilliantly, succinctly embodies a key aspect of  "resilience" as a core value and aspiration here within the PP community.

    However, I have this nagging concern about, when all things considered (even the "unthinkable") those individuals (many so-called "leaders" i.e., "puppet masters"), and institutional policies and practices that give evidential credence to the concept of eugenics.

    Question:  So...what if the nCoV was, in fact, an intentional or unintentional consequence or byproduct of the Wuhan BSL-4 lab or other "research" and not an act of nature/natural selection? Or if trusted institutions' and officials' maddening dissembling, complacent, obfuscation, ridicule, censorship and persecution of accurate, actionable information and information messengers is actually intentional to achieve a desired political, economic or even demographic outcome that ultimately decreases human populations and enriches a select few? How might that awareness change our personal and societal approach to this particular--natural vs. manufactured--crisis that effectively reduces human populations?

    Personally, I think my mindset and actions towards immediate, short and longer-term (i.e., 3+ years) preparedness would be the same and adjusted, based on assessed and continually updated prioritized risks and resources. But my level of intensity and time horizon might shift significantly as awareness of potential threats and impacts (e.g., multigenerational or even existential) became known.

    Admittedly, I have more questions than answers. I feel like I'm living in multiple dimensions of macro- and micro- disjointed realities, with all sorts of incrementality in between.

    Bottom line: I'm taking care of my loved ones, then (and) nature.

    Well-grounded on the brighter side:  Today I harvested several cherry tomatoes from two permaculture, rogue, overwintered, neglected volunteer tomato plants in January. My free-roaming urban hens are obviously not taking any crap from my two shelter-dogs.

    Life will find a way. 🙂

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 2:59am

    Tim Puffer

    Tim Puffer

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    Joined: Nov 24 2019

    Posts: 11

    Misinformation

    I've been seeing more mentions of culling misinformation by the MSM lately. As is typically done this will likely mean spinning actual facts to meet the narrative that is deemed politically and economically acceptable by the powers that be.

    Maybe they will actually stop the fake news and not totally spin the facts on this one - we can hope!

     

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/us-coronavirus-hoaxes-trnd/index.html

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 4:17am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Posts: 5213

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    Case Fatality Rate

    As mentioned in your videos, we can’t divide the number of current fatalities by the current number of infected to get the CFR because it takes about a week from the onset of symptoms before death. Is there a better way to estimate the true CFR?

    (200 Fatalities  (Jan 30) – 25 Fatalities (Jan 23)) / 800 infected (Jan 23) = 21.8% CFR ?

    This seems a bit high.

    Yes, probably very high.  I think.  To get a true CFR you need two numbers: (1) the total number of infected and (2) the total number of deaths of infected people.

    I have strong reason to suspect that (1) is wildly, enormously (politically) understated.  I now suspect that the actual infection numbers are 10x to 100x higher than reported.  I've just come across a Chinese study that put the calculated R0 at 4(!!)

    And I have strong reason to suspect that (2) is wildly, enormously (politically) understated.

    So let's not get too hung up on the minutia of it all.  Here's what we do know; this virus is a beast, it's highly infective, and very deadly for older patients.

    We can confidently say that its CFR is far, far above regular flu.  If it's only a 1% CFR, that's still one order of magnitude (10x) higher than the seasonal flu, which is bad enough.

    But I strongly suspect it's higher than 1%.  However we just don't know yet.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:27am

    nickbert

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 285

    6+

    The view from Mongolia

    We just got back into Mongolia a couple days ago. Thankfully we were able to get our flight rerouted from a Beijing transit to a Seoul transit instead... United Airlines was (surprisingly) helpful in accommodating that at no charge. The trip through the Incheon(Seoul) airport wasn't too unusual; they did have us walk through the temperature screening checkpoints (interestingly they separated the people flying from Bangkok to a separate lane than those of us coming from San Francisco), and about 90% of the people were wearing masks. In Customs I did notice a woman a little ahead of us with a Chinese passport who was politely escorted to some other area instead of passed through. She didn't show any signs of being sick, but I won't fault them for being liberal with secondary screening. I expected them to ask us if we'd been to China recently (we actually had been 6 weeks prior), but they never asked any questions of that nature.

    As Chris mentioned in an earlier video, Mongolia has effectively closed its borders with China with regards to people; only goods are allowed to cross, and only via railway at the Zamyn Uud crossing. This includes those just transiting through China (SO glad we got the reroute through Korea). The one exception is that Mongolian citizens will be allowed in from China, but will be required to stay in hospital quarantine for 2 weeks if I heard right. And the Mongolian government has banned its citizens from traveling to China until early March. The general sentiment here seems to be that Mongolians have zero trust in China's government and information coming out of it, and so are taking pretty aggressive action and assuming the worst. It's one of those rare times I find myself in grudging approval of any given government action. 😉

    As to life here, all the universities, kindergartens, and schools are closed until March 2nd (my son is loving that latter part!), and they'll be broadcasting school lessons on TV in the meantime. All movie theaters, video arcades, and large-scale entertainment venues are closed in the meantime as well, but to the best of my knowledge the bars and pubs are still open (gotta draw the line somewhere I guess!). We were told that initially there had been some panic-buying at the supermarkets at the first word of government action, but since then I guess people calmed down and the supermarkets are now stocked as normal (minus some produce normally sourced from China). My grocery trips and other forays outside of the house over the past two days have been pretty uneventful, with the only noticeable difference being a little less traffic (yay!), noticeably less pedestrians (no school so not surprising), and about 3/4 of people here wearing masks. But life doesn't feel all that different than it did before. So far supply chains are still functioning and people (other than teachers) are still going to work. I'm trying to convince my in-laws to gradually stock up on storable foods and household essentials like I've been doing for years; they have a lot of meat in the freezer and a fair amount of flour and rice but that's about it. A lot of the food and products imported into Mongolia come from or through China, and there's no telling how disruptive this pandemic might be to that supply line.

    Anyway, for being as close to China as we are I think Mongolia could get through this a little better than one might think. Much of the small amount of Mongolia-China travel this time of year was at border crossings far from the initial source of the virus, and most of that being locals buying or selling across the border. No reported cases yet, and it could be the (relatively) quick action of the government might have bought Mongolia some time. It'd be a real good thing too, because the medical infrastructure and hospitals here are not well-equipped to handle this. Keeping fingers crossed...

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:28am

    brianwilliams82

    brianwilliams82

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    Joined: Nov 05 2018

    Posts: 15

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    checking in from central Europe

    Hi all,

    I don’t post very much here but I very much value the work carried out by PP.  It’s really shaped a lot of my outlook since coming across it (via Mike Maloney’s ‘Hidden Secrets of Money pt 8’ video about 15 months ago – Chris’s segment really leapt out at me!) I have a ‘love/hate’ relationship with the site, if I’m being honest – I ‘love’ what it provides but ‘hate’ that such a site actually needs to exist, if people get me? 😊

    My own feelings on this since starting to take this seriously last weekend (following the PP weekly newsletter) have gone from real, almost irrational fear of the type Andy_S is likely on about (“oh God, this thing will kill us all!! Gotta get out of the city!!!”) to what others here have helpfully referred to as a heightened state of concern, driven by that underlying fear.  I’ve taken quantifiable, actionable steps to reduce myself and my family’s vulnerability to this thing should it arrive here (no confirmed cases as yet in Czech Republic);

    • I’ve made sure the car’s petrol tank is full ‘just in case’. We do not need to use the car every day due to excellent public transport.
    • Purchased several bottles of elderberry syrup. No doubt not as good as homemade stuff, but better than nothing!
    • Ordered some N95 masks. I’m ‘on the list’, basically, as demand has totally cleaned out supply
    • Stocked up a bit on canned goods. I already have a bit of a stash, no doubt not nearly as much as many regulars here have but we’re not too bad on this front
    • Got hand sanitiser + antibac liquid soap. I’ve also increased my own handwashing and am avoiding touching my face as much as possible.  This is hard as my face seems to be incredibly itchy all of a sudden since I can’t touch it, lol! This has an added side-benefit, as I’ve a lousy, lifelong habit of biting my nails and the skin around them, so this is giving those long-suffering fingers a great chance to recover!

     

    It has also - belatedly - allowed me to have a somewhat 'PP-related' discussion with my other half, for which I've been greatful.

     

    I am not a native of this country but have been keeping my eye on the local media as much as I can.  There has most definitely been an active attempt to downplay the risk of this thing in the media, ie. The not-as-bad-as-the-yearly-flu angle is quite prevalent.  The messages being sent out by local health organisations and the Ministry are mixed.  As in, the best thing one can do is to practice proper hygiene and self-isolate if one feels that he/she’s coming down with something.  And that SARS+MERS were eventually beaten back by a real tightening-up of hygiene, preventing further spread.  Which might well be true but I don’t remember much about the SARS epidemic, being a student with other things on his mind at the time.  The Ministry is, as expected, stating that it’s fully prepared and all precautions are being taken.  The latest is that flights to and from China will most likely be suspended – whether too little too late, remains to be seen.  Whilst terms like ‘highly infectious’ have been used, specific models such as those mentioned by Chris and also R0 numbers are not being emphasised very much.

     

    One thing I would like to ask about is the level of smog in China? I don’t think I’ve seen anything on this so far? If there has been and I’ve missed it, I apologise – there’s been a lot to get through on this.  Those Chinese megacities aren’t the cleanest and would the persistent smog in those areas not be a contributory factor to the vulnerability of the local populace? I appreciate that this would be a hard one to quantify but thought I’d throw it out there regardless.

     

    As this is a long post, I’ll finish it up by hoping that this thing is brought under control.  Like the rest of you, though, I do have my doubts about that but one is always able to hope, just so long as that’s obviously not his only strategy!

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 6:49am

    Shubug

    Shubug

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    Joined: Sep 05 2016

    Posts: 7

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    CV in UK

    Im in the UK and followed PP for several years.

    The first two cases confirmed in the UK tourist city of York.

    The government response seems predictably relaxed.

    the hotel is still offering rooms at the low-low price of £75

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/31/two-people-england-have-testedpositive-coronavirus/amp/

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 7:38am

    pinecarr

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2008

    Posts: 1141

    2+

    Seeds for sprouting

    Greendoc, good advice on sprouting, thanks!

    I looked around for good deals on seeds for sprouting, and Country Life Natural Foods , clnf.org, seems to have some very reasonably priced organic seeds compared to Amazon and other places I looked.  Lots of other bulk grains, seeds, etc.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 8:33am

    greendoc

    greendoc

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    Posts: 166

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    Just published: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

    can be read online here:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/01/24/2020.01.23.20018549.full.pdf

    Key findings

    We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.

    ● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

    ● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

    ● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.

    ● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.

     

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 9:04am

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 192

    4+

    "Have you returned from China in the last 14 days?"

    Early this morning I had a very routine diagnostic screen done at Providence Medical Center in Medford, OR, several hundred miles from the nearest confirmed Corona virus case.  When I registered they asked me if I had returned from China in the last 14 days.  I wish had asked them what they do with someone who says "yes."

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 9:22am

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3134

    3+

    Thanks, greendoc

    Amazing stuff. Looks like it's time to start acting on the to do list this weekend.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 9:50am

    Matties

    Matties

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    Case Fatality Rate

    However we do have 2 reports from hospitals.

    Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure.

    Age, years
    Mean (SD) 55·5 (13·1)
    Range 21–82
    ≤39 10 (10%)
    40–49 22 (22%)
    50–59 30 (30%)
    60–69 22 (22%)
    ≥70 15 (15%)

    Of the 41 admitted hospital patients got acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]) and six (15%) died. Median age was 49·0 years.

    So total 140 patients from which 17 died. Thats 12 %.

    29 patients had respitory problems which makes 20 %.

    All in all i would say the fatality rate is between 12 and 20 %.

     

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 9:56am

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 439

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    Life will indeed find a way

    Hi Sparky1,

    Thanks for your comment. I also want to acknowledge cranky Granny's comment.

    There is no question that the hot present moment of a global health crisis is not the time to start a discussion around population culling. Definitely a surefire way to rankle.... for what its worth I do not think that the term 'eugenics' is being applied incorrectly in this context. It applies more to controlling breeding for optimal human outcomes. I have first hand experience with this aspect. As person who is disabled, I was told by a doctor when I was about ten that it would be best if I never had kids. It was and remains a common attitudinal problem in the medical community.

    I am not aware of a single 'term' that can capture what I am trying to say. As I read all of the comments and information being put forth there are stark realities that materialize, such as:

    • there are not enough test kits or hospital beds to adequately deal with a pandemic
    • there are no known vaccinations or cures at this time
    • there are hard limitations of what can be done quickly on a mass scale

    The point I am trying to make is that at some point humans will have to face the fact that we cannot save everyone, everywhere from every instance of disease and sickness that crops up across the globe. We are trying mightily to cure anything and everything, throwing untold amounts of resources at trying to preserve life at all costs. But at what price? We are not living longer - we are dying longer. And in doing so, we take away yet more from future generations.

    The desire to survive is intense for most people. It drives us to go to remarkable lengths, all the more so if someone is a parent. This desire causes us to think we can get around the law of nature: survival of the fittest. Those who have the resources and abilities throw all they can at their predicament trying to stave off the inevitable. We go to the ends of the earth for cancer and other disease cures. We try to buy our way out of the inevitable. We are all doing that right now - running out to stock pantries, buy masks, make elderberry syrup, and prepare our households for survival mode in the face of danger.

    We who can do that, who are able to read and participate on this site, have won the nature lottery just by virtue of where we were born. That gave us a huge boost in the survival of the fittest game. We have the luxury of living in an environment that has things like food regulations to protect us; where perhaps our biggest worry is that we get E-coli because we did not cook our burger well enough on the barbie. We are so, so lucky that we were not born in a place where our food source is a grotesque, unsanitary wet market where live animals are butchered and consumed, cooked or uncooked.

    Survival of the fittest is Mother Nature's way of telling us that some ways of living are not sustainable. We, with our strong desire to live, are resisting that law, doing everything we can avoid it and control outcomes.

    It remains to be seen if this virus is a naturally occurring thing from an animal source, or if TPTB are conducting bio-weapon experiments and we are the test dummies. I certainly would not put it past them, and that would not surprise me in the least bit.

    I only know / believe one thing with a certainty: Mother Nature controls the game, and always bats last. And try as we might, there is not a damn thing we can do about it. The sooner we accept that the sooner we will be able to move to having conversations about how to manage life on this planet going forward. With all of the cumulative predicaments compounding rapidly, desperate, realistic conversations are needed to help chart the best possible path forward.

    Jan

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 10:06am

    Matties

    Matties

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    Never ending nightmare

    So with R0 greater then 3, with a fatality rate greater then 12%, with superspreaders, with cured people in short time infected again we have the greatest nightmare all times on our hand which will continue for ever and ever, with vicious rounds of infections over and over again.

    Brrr...

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 10:08am

    nickbert

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 285

    4+

    Re: "Have you returned from China in the last 14 days?"

    To be honest, if we had ultimately ended up having to transit through Beijing instead of rerouting through Seoul earlier this week, I think our chances of getting nCoV would be relatively minimal (masks on, plenty of sanitizer, staying only in the International Terminal, and not eating any food locally prepared). But I knew our chances of that "recently been to China" stigma creating ongoing problems for us would be significantly higher. As it is sometimes I feel the locals here are staring at me a little more than normal. Hopefully I'm just imagining it, but in situations like this having more suspicious attitudes towards foreigners is unfortunate but understandable.

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  • Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - 11:15am

    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    1+

    Mortality calculations

    In response to Matties: it's not the case fatality ratio that is 10% it's the mortality of people who were sick enough to get to hospital. Some (hopefully many) are asymptomatic. This could be the problem here in the US - we are not finding new cases because it's asymptomatic for many people. If we wanted to know how the infection is spreading, we would need to test all contacts whether symptomatic or not.

    10% in hospital mortality is bad enough, but it's not 10% overall. There is research on how to estimate mortality rates early in an epidemic, but I haven't delved into that. Interesting to note that the article referenced above estimating the scope of the epidemic doesn't even try to estimate a mortality rate - not even a range. However, the same article suggests that in terms of cases, we are several days ahead of Chris's exponential projections, and being held back by incomplete testing.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/01/24/2020.01.23.20018549.full.pdf

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 12:02pm

    Terry L

    Terry L

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    Joined: Oct 25 2009

    Posts: 24

    2+

    The "Have you traveled from China recently" question

    Suzie,

    I got the very same question here in Portland, Oregon, a week ago when checking in to a Providence facility to see my PT. And I did ask what would happen if I'd answered "Yes."
    Their answer was I'd be given a mask and immediately sent to the ER (across the street).

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:35pm

    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

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    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 56

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    Masked inadequacy

    They need to get their Heinies in gear and round up some more masks...check 'em for fit, too.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:20pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 736

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    Lol: Comedic Interlude and Masked Inadequacy

    Lol, Well Done! to both thc0655 for the original "Comic Interlude" post, and to Thrivalista's "Masked Inadequacy" cheeky response.  🙂

    Here's the original photo and post in case anyone missed in this very long thread.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:58am

    Mr. Fri

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 21 2009

    Posts: 52

    Reporting in the UK

    We moved from the US to the UK last year so everything here is new to us. And... they certainly do things a bit differently here (like healthcare). I noticed that in the US they say which cities/states are cases of nCoV. However, in the UK they just report the number of cases, but not where they're located. Is that a typical UK thing or unique to this outbreak so to not spread panic?

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